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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1997

Gradient-Based Aerodynamic Shape Optimization Using ADI Method for Large-Scale Problems

A gradient-based shape optimization methodology, that is intended for practical three-dimensional aerodynamic applications, has been developed. It is based on the quasi-analytical sensitivities. The flow analysis is rendered by a fully implicit, finite volume formulation of the Euler equations.The aerodynamic sensitivity equation is solved using the alternating-direction-implicit (ADI) algorithm for memory efficiency. A flexible wing geometry model, that is based on surface parameterization and platform schedules, is utilized. The present methodology and its components have been tested via several comparisons. Initially, the flow analysis for for a wing is compared with those obtained using an unfactored, preconditioned conjugate gradient approach (PCG), and an extensively validated CFD code. Then, the sensitivities computed with the present method have been compared with those obtained using the finite-difference and the PCG approaches. Effects of grid refinement and convergence tolerance on the analysis and shape optimization have been explored. Finally the new procedure has been demonstrated in the design of a cranked arrow wing at Mach 2.4. Despite the expected increase in the computational time, the results indicate that shape optimization, which require large numbers of grid points can be resolved with a gradient-based approach.

Pandya, Mohagna J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modification and analysis of context-specific genome-scale metabolic models: methane-utilizing microbial chassis as a case study

ABSTRACT Context-specific genome-scale model (CS-GSM) reconstruction is becoming an efficient strategy for integrating and cross-comparing experimental multi-scale data to explore the relationship between cellular genotypes, facilitating fundamental or applied research discoveries. However, the application of CS modeling for non-conventional microbes is still challenging. Here, we present a graphical user interface that integrates COBRApy, EscherPy, and RIPTiDe, Python-based tools within the BioUML platform, and streamlines the reconstruction and interrogation of the CS genome-scale metabolic frameworks via Jupyter Notebook. The approach was tested using -omics data collected for Methylotuvimicrobium alcaliphilum 20Z R , a prominent microbial chassis for methane capturing and valorization. We optimized the previously reconstructed whole genome-scale metabolic network by adjusting the flux distribution using gene expression data. The outputs of the automatically reconstructed CS metabolic network were comparable to manually optimized i IA409 models for Ca-growth conditions. However, the CS model questions the reversibility of the phosphoketolase pathway and suggests higher flux via primary oxidation pathways. The model also highlighted unresolved carbon partitioning between assimilatory and catabolic pathways at the formaldehyde-formate node. Only a very few genes and only one enzyme with a predicted function in C1 metabolism, a homolog of the formaldehyde oxidation enzyme ( fae1-2 ), showed a significant change in expression in La-growth conditions. The CS-GSM predictions agreed with the experimental measurements under the assumption that the Fae1-2 is a part of the tetrahydrofolate-linked pathway. The cellular roles of the tungsten (W)-dependent formate dehydrogenase ( fdhAB ) and fae homologs ( fae1-2 and fae3 ) were investigated via mutagenesis. The phenotype of the f dhAB mutant followed the model prediction. Furthermore, a more significant reduction of the biomass yield was observed during growth in La-supplemented media, confirming a higher flux through formate. M. alcaliphilum 20Z R mutants lacking fae1-2 did not display any significant defects in methane or methanol-dependent growth. However, contrary to fae1, the fae1-2 homolog failed to restore the formaldehyde-activating enzyme function in complementation tests. Overall, the presented data suggest that the developed computational workflow supports the reconstruction and validation of CS-GSM networks of non-model microbes. IMPORTANCE The interrogation of various types of data is a routine strategy to explore the relationship between genotype and phenotype. An efficient approach for integrating and cross-comparing experimental multi-scale data in the context of whole-genome-based metabolic network reconstruction becomes a powerful tool that facilitates fundamental and applied research discoveries. The present study describes the reconstruction of a context-specific (CS) model for the methane-utilizing bacterium, Methylotuvimicrobium alcaliphilum 20Z R . M. alcaliphilum 20Z R is becoming an attractive microbial platform for the production of biofuels, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and bio-sorbents for capturing atmospheric methane. We demonstrate that this pipeline can help reconstruct metabolic models that are similar to manually curated networks. Furthermore, the model is able to highlight previously overlooked pathways, thus advancing fundamental knowledge of non-model microbial systems or promoting their development toward biotechnological or environmental implementations.

Kulyashov, M. A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Artificial Intelligence and Computer Vision for Cost-Effective Benthic Habitat Characterizations

Machine learning applied to computer vision and pattern recognition is a type of artificial intelligence that has advanced rapidly in the last 10 to 15 years, spurred forward by breakthroughs in deep convolutional neural networks. These state-of-the-art methods are poised to become widely used in environmental monitoring applications as a result of the increasing abundance of data available from different imaging platforms (e.g., fixed-point cameras, drone surveys, high-resolution satellite data) that can be analyzed to observe, model, and understand environmental conditions. Computer vision and pattern recognition (CVPR) tools advance our ability to use imagery and camera-based tools in cost-effective ways for environmental monitoring. Although these techniques offer great potential, some challenges remain, such as the need for large sets of labeled images for model training and validation and optimized hardware and software to ensure that the models can be trained effectively and in a reasonable amount of time. Here, we have overcome many of these rate-limiting challenges by using a diverse image library built across multiple projects coupled with staff expertise and onsite computing resources. We are working toward a fully automated SPI processing system and also are moving to develop CVPR analytical tools for other imaging platforms and data sets.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimization of WAAM Process to Produce AUSC Components with Increased Service Life

Additive manufacturing has the potential to revolutionize industrial hardware and unlock efficiency gains through the fabrication of geometries and architectures not possible by conventional processing. Wire Arc Additive manufacturing (WAAM) process is a class of directed energy deposition process enabling higher build rate and allowing custom wire feedstock allowing spatial variation of microstructure. The larger spot size and lower speed creates a larger melt pool, reducing residual stress and often time creating directional/columnar microstructure for Ni-superalloy. The use of flexible platform provides freedom in deposition strategy, which can accommodate complex substrates, including feature addition onto existing structures, non-flat layers, and repair methods. However, the certification of the final component needs to match the strength requirement. Hence, the quality of the component produced is stringently monitored to avoid buildup of residual stress, cracks, porosity and to reduce detrimental segregated phases commonly observed during alloy solidification. Simulation plays a huge role in predicting the melt pool dimension and can be used to optimize the process parameter. Similar development is also required to perform physics-based modeling of microstructural development in WAAM that can predict the microstructural features during solidification and can be used to optimize the process more effectively. To move toward this goal, Raytheon Technologies Research Center together with Siemens worked to create a set of computational tools to control the process parameters, enable on-line measurements and acquisition with feedback to the optimized process parameters, and eventually track material evolution through each step of the additive process. Computational fluid dynamics is used for accurate prediction and calibration of the thermal field during WAAM process. and phase field models for microstructure evolution as a function of processing parameters to establish a connection between additive parameters and the final microstructure. Here we report cellular automata (CA) model development to predict the dendritic microstructure evolution with surface and bulk nuclei for single track and multiple layers. The CA model was developed to account for secondary element addition and predict segregation, local melting, and latent heat release as well as prediction of Euler angles from orientation information and validated against experiments. This framework was utilized to tailor spatially-varying composition in a part by appropriately controlling the microstructure evolution during the additive process. Functionally graded Haynes 282 alloy with high Cr content at the surface was tested for oxidation and mechanical properties. An advanced physics-based reaction-diffusion model predicting the simultaneous creation of chromium oxide and alumina is developed and validated to extend life expectancy of the WAAM manufactured high temperature part. A machine-learning data-driven framework establishing the process-structure relationship from a dataset of real microstructure images and corresponding process history data has been developed and implemented in the NX Siemens design system. The digital twin configuration along with the tool path generation enabled prediction of WAAM component buildup time and the techno-economic analysis provided a favorable option for all 4 cases with 15-40% cost reduction.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Zn 2+ -Inducible Expression Platform for Synechococcus sp. Strain PCC 7002 Based on the smtA Promoter/Operator and smtB Repressor

Synechococcus sp. strain PCC 7002 has been gaining significance as both a model system for photosynthesis research and for industrial applications. Until recently, the genetic toolbox for this model cyanobacterium was rather limited and relied primarily on tools that only allowed constitutive gene expression. This work describes a two-plasmid, Zn 2+ -inducible expression platform that is coupled with a zurA mutation, providing enhanced Zn 2+ uptake. The control elements are based on the metal homeostasis system of a class II metallothionein gene ( smtA 7942 ) and its cognate SmtB 7942 repressor from Synechococcus elongatus strain PCC 7942. Under optimal induction conditions, yellow fluorescent protein (YFP) levels were about half of those obtained with the strong, constitutive phycocyanin ( cpcBA 6803 ) promoter of Synechocystis sp. strain PCC 6803. This metal-inducible expression system in Synechococcus sp. strain PCC 7002 allowed the titratable gene expression of YFP that was up to 19-fold greater than the background level. This system was utilized successfully to control the expression of the Drosophila melanogaster β-carotene 15,15'-dioxygenase, NinaB, which is toxic when constitutively expressed from a strong promoter in Synechococcus sp. strain PCC 7002. Together, these properties establish this metal-inducible system as an additional useful tool that is capable of controlling gene expression for applications ranging from basic research to synthetic biology in Synechococcus sp. strain PCC 7002. IMPORTANCE This is the first metal-responsive expression system in cyanobacteria, to our knowledge, that does not exhibit low sensitivity for induction, which is one of the major hurdles for utilizing this class of genetic tools. In addition, high levels of expression can be generated that approximate those of established constitutive systems, with the added advantage of titratable control. Together, these properties establish this Zn 2+ -inducible system, which is based on the smtA 7942 operator/promoter and smtB 7942 repressor, as a versatile gene expression platform that expands the genetic toolbox of Synechococcus sp. strain PCC 7002.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries: Summary of Laboratory Directed Research & Development Effort

The Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries (TACCRAB) tool is an innovative digital twin (DT) platform and automated risk algorithm designed to transform operational decision-making in structured screening environments, with an initial focus on Southern Border Land Ports of Entry (POEs). The invention provides integration points for advanced artificial intelligence, predictive modeling, and real-time data analysis to produce a comprehensive risk management tool that enables proactive, data-informed security strategies. The core inventive features of TACCRAB center on its unique risk algorithm, which dynamically calculates contextual risk by synthesizing historical data, near real-time streaming data from the checkpoints themselves, and AI-generated predictions. Unlike traditional risk assessment methods, TACCRAB utilizes a DT to provide comprehensive operational insights, allowing stakeholders to visualize, simulate, and optimize checkpoint configurations with unprecedented speed and contextual awareness. TACCRAB's key innovation lies in its ability to combine multiple complex inputs - including technology detection probabilities, resource availability, screening pathway characteristics, and threat actor behavioral patterns - into a unified risk calculation and update these inputs based on changing operational and environmental conditions. By leveraging a DT that continuously updates and learns from linked data, TACCRAB can suggest adaptive mitigation strategies that minimize risk while maintaining operational efficiency. Particularly novel is the platform's approach to decision support, which goes beyond static risk assessment. The DT provides dynamic metrics such as wait times, resource allocation effectiveness, and potential emerging threat scenarios, enabling users to view sophisticated, relevant what-if simulations and optimize checkpoint operations in near real-time. The system's architecture allows for generalized application across different screening environments, such as secure facilities, ports of entry, and soft targets, making it a versatile tool for security and operational management. The invention distinguishes itself through its comprehensive integration of predictive modeling, AI-driven pattern discovery, and user-friendly interface design. By combining these elements, TACCRAB transforms complex risk data into actionable insights, supporting decision-makers at various organizational levels - from booth agents making split-second screening decisions to checkpoint managers optimizing the day's resource allocation to strategic planners managing long-term investments.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelized probabilistic machine learning and uncertainty quantification for computational energy applications

Here, this paper presents the development and demonstration of massively parallel probabilistic machine learning (ML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) capabilities within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), an open-source computational platform for parallel finite element and finite volume analyses. In addressing the computational expense and uncertainties inherent in complex multiphysics simulations, this paper integrates Gaussian process (GP) variants, active learning, Bayesian inverse UQ, adaptive forward UQ, Bayesian optimization, evolutionary optimization, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) within MOOSE. It also elaborates on the interaction among key MOOSE systems — Sampler, MultiApp, Reporter, and Surrogate — in enabling these capabilities. The modularity offered by these systems enables development of a multitude of probabilistic ML and UQ algorithms in MOOSE. Example code demonstrations include parallel active learning and parallel Bayesian inference via active learning. The impact of these developments is illustrated through five applications relevant to computational energy applications: UQ of nuclear fuel fission product release, using parallel active learning Bayesian inference; very rare events analysis in nuclear microreactors using active learning; advanced manufacturing process modeling using multi-output GPs (MOGPs) and dimensionality reduction; fluid flow using deep GPs (DGPs); and tritium transport model parameter optimization for fusion energy, using batch Bayesian optimization. These capabilities are part of the MOOSE framework.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

SYCL for Performance Portability: Application Experience with Coupled Cluster Formalism in Quantum Chemistry on Exascale Systems

The exascale computing has brought unprecedented heterogeneity in node architectures, with systems such as Frontier and Aurora featuring diverse GPU accelerators, network connectivity among others. Ensuring performance portability across these platforms is a key challenge. To address this, we employ the SYCL programming model to develop portable, high-performance quantum chemistry workloads. As a representative application, we focus on the non-iterative Triples component of the coupled-cluster CCSD(T) method, a key driver in quantum chemistry. In this work, we report on our experience deploying SYCL-based implementations using both DPC++ and AdaptiveCPP across two flagship exascale platforms: OLCF Frontier with AMD MI250X GPUs and ALCF Aurora with Intel GPUs. Our results demonstrate that SYCL enables efficient, single-source implementations that scale to thousands of nodes, delivering performance on par with vendor-optimized HIP solutions. We highlight key insights into runtime behavior, kernel portability, and scaling characteristics, showing that SYCL offers a viable path for performance-portable computing.

Bagusetty, Abhishek [Argonne National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancements and Deployment of the TDAQ System for the Mu2e Experiment

The Real Time Processing Systems Division at Fermilab has deployed new features to the Off-The-Shelf Data Acquisition framework (otsdaq) for the Mu2e experiment. The Mu2e experiment will search for the coherent neutrino-less conversion of a muon into an electron in the field of an aluminum nucleus with a sensitivity improvement of 10,000 times over existing limits. Such a charged lepton flavor-violating reaction probes new physics at a scale unavailable at present or planned high-energy colliders. The Mu2e Trigger and Data Acquisition (TDAQ) system uses otsdaq as its online Data Acquisition System (DAQ) framework. otsdaq integrates the artdaq and art frameworks for event transfer, filtering, and processing. otsdaq is a web-based DAQ software suite focusing on flexibility and scalability and provides a multi-user interface accessible through a web browser. artdaq handles the entire data stream, which is read over the peripheral component interconnect express (PCIe) bus to a software filter algorithm that selects events combined with the data flux coming from a cosmic-ray veto (CRV) system. Detector front-ends are configured through the PCIe bus by customized otsdaq plugins. The otsdaq slow controls infrastructure has been further developed using the experimental physics and industrial control system (EPICS) open-source platform for monitoring, controlling, alarming, and archiving. The detector control system (DCS) for Mu2e has been integrated into otsdaq. The production TDAQ and DCS system has been deployed at the experimental hall and is being debugged and optimized for experiment operations. We report on the feature enhancements and deployment of otsdaq for Mu2e.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Creating multifunctional synthetic lichen platforms for sustainable biosynthesis of biofuel precursors

In this project, we were creating a sustainable platform for biofuel production, utilizing carbon-fixing autotrophs to supply oxygen and organic substrates to heterotrophic partners, which in turn produce carbon dioxide to feed the autotrophs. This symbiotic lichen community could lower the input cost, optimize metabolic exchanges and improve the generation of biofuel precursors through multi-omics driven genetic engineering. The cyanobacteria Synechococcus elongatus (S. elongatus) was used as the primary autotroph to provide oxygen and organic substrates, especially sucrose, to a co-culture system. The strain with overexpression of sucrose transporter cscB demonstrated a significant increase in sucrose production under salt stress as what we expected. We also implemented 13C metabolic flux analysis on the sucrose secreting strain S. elongatus cscB-NaCl. Next, transporters proteins like glutamate exporter mscCG from Corynebacterium glutamicum was overexpressed in S. elongatus to improve metabolite exchange.

Betenbaugh, Michael↗
NASA NTRS1989

Space Station tethered elevator system

The optimized conceptual engineering design of a space station tethered elevator is presented. The tethered elevator is an unmanned, mobile structure which operates on a ten-kilometer tether spanning the distance between Space Station Freedom and a platform. Its capabilities include providing access to residual gravity levels, remote servicing, and transportation to any point along a tether. The report discusses the potential uses, parameters, and evolution of the spacecraft design. Emphasis is placed on the elevator's structural configuration and three major subsystem designs. First, the design of elevator robotics used to aid in elevator operations and tethered experimentation is presented. Second, the design of drive mechanisms used to propel the vehicle is discussed. Third, the design of an onboard self-sufficient power generation and transmission system is addressed.

Haddock, Michael H.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Mapping of sea bottom topography

Under suitable conditions the bottom topography of shallow seas is visible in remote sensing radar imagery. Two experiments were performed to establish which remote sensing technique or combination yields optimal imaging of bottom topography and which hydro-meteorological conditions are favorable. A further goal is to gain experience with these techniques. Two experiments were performed over an area in the North Sea near the measuring platform Meetpost Noordwijk (MPN). The bottom topography in the test area is dominated by sand waves. The crests of the sand waves are perpendicular to the coast line and the dominating (tidal-)current direction. A 4x4 sq km wide section of the test area was studied in more detail. The first experiment was undertaken on 16 Aug. 1989. During the experiment the following remote sensing instruments were used: Landsat-Thematic Mapper, and NASA/JPL Airborne Imaging Radar (AIR). The hydro-meteorological conditions; current, wind, wave, and air and water temperature were monitored by MPN, a ship of Rijkswaterstaat (the OCTANS), and a pitch-and-roll WAVEC-buoy. The second experiment took place on 12 July 1992. During this experiment data were collected with the NASA/JPL polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR), and a five-band helicopter-borne scatterometer. Again the hydro-meteorological conditions were monitored at MPN and the OCTANS. Furthermore, interferometric radar data were collected.

Calkoen, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Simulated Performance of the Orbiting Wide-angle Light Collectors (OWL) Experiment

The Orbiting Wide-angle Light collectors (OWL) experiment is in NASA's mid-term strategic plan and will stereoscopically image, from equatorial orbit, the air fluorescence signal generated by airshowers induced by the ultrahigh energy (E greater than few x 10(exp 19) eV) component of the cosmic radiation. The use of a space-based platform enables an extremely large event acceptance aperture and thus will allow a high statistics measurement of these rare events. Detailed Monte Carlo simulations are required to quantify the physics potential of the mission as well as optimize the instrumental parameters. This paper reports on the results of the GSFC Monte Carlo simulation for two different, OWL instrument baseline designs. These results indicate that, assuming a continuation of the cosmic ray spectrum (theta approximately E(exp -2.75), OWL could have an event rate of 4000 events/year with E greater than or equal to 10(exp 20) eV. Preliminary results, based upon these Monte Carlo simulations, indicate that events can be accurately reconstructed in the detector focal plane arrays for the OWL instrument baseline designs under consideration.

Krizmanic, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The HYTHIRM Project: Flight Thermography of the Space Shuttle During the Hypersonic Re-entry

This report describes a NASA Langley led endeavor sponsored by the NASA Engineering Safety Center, the Space Shuttle Program Office and the NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate to demonstrate a quantitative thermal imaging capability. A background and an overview of several multidisciplinary efforts that culminated in the acquisition of high resolution calibrated infrared imagery of the Space Shuttle during hypervelocity atmospheric entry is presented. The successful collection of thermal data has demonstrated the feasibility of obtaining remote high-resolution infrared imagery during hypersonic flight for the accurate measurement of surface temperature. To maximize science and engineering return, the acquisition of quantitative thermal imagery and capability demonstration was targeted towards three recent Shuttle flights - two of which involved flight experiments flown on Discovery. In coordination with these two Shuttle flight experiments, a US Navy NP-3D aircraft was flown between 26-41 nautical miles below Discovery and remotely monitored surface temperature of the Orbiter at Mach 8.4 (STS-119) and Mach 14.7 (STS-128) using a long-range infrared optical package referred to as Cast Glance. This same Navy aircraft successfully monitored the Orbiter Atlantis traveling at approximately Mach 14.3 during its return from the successful Hubble repair mission (STS-125). The purpose of this paper is to describe the systematic approach used by the Hypersonic Thermodynamic Infrared Measurements team to develop and implement a set of mission planning tools designed to establish confidence in the ability of an imaging platform to reliably acquire, track and return global quantitative surface temperatures of the Shuttle during entry. The mission planning tools included a pre-flight capability to predict the infrared signature of the Shuttle. Such tools permitted optimization of the hardware configuration to increase signal-to-noise and to maximize the available dynamic range while mitigating the potential for saturation. Post flight, analysis tools were used to assess atmospheric effects and to convert the 2-D intensity images to 3-D temperature maps of the windward surface. Comparison of the spatially resolved global thermal measurements to surface thermocouples and CFD prediction is made. Successful demonstration of a quantitative, spatially resolved, global temperature measurement on the Shuttle suggests future applications towards hypersonic flight test programs within NASA, DoD and DARPA along with flight test opportunities supporting NASA's project Constellation.

Horvath, Thomas J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A GPU-Accelerated Population Generation, Sorting, and Mutation Kernel for an Optimization-Based Causal Inference Model

We develop a GPU-accelerated machine learning generative adversarial network model that can be used with observational data for the purpose of constructing causal inferences. The theoretical basis of our machine learning model is novel and is conceptualized to be operable and scalable for high performance computing platforms. Our GPU-accelerated code enables large-scale parallelization of the computation within a common and accessible computing environment. This will expand the reach of our model and empower research in new substantive domains while maintaining the underlying theoretical properties.

Cho, Wendy K. Tam↗
DOE OSTI2018

Nonreciprocal signal routing in an active quantum network

As superconductor quantum technologies are moving towards large-scale integrated circuits, a robust and flexible approach to routing photons at the quantum level becomes a critical problem. Active circuits, which contain parametrically driven elements selectively embedded in the circuit, offer a viable solution. In this work, we present a general strategy for routing nonreciprocally quantum signals between two sites of a given lattice of oscillators, implementable with existing superconducting circuit components. Our approach makes use of a dual lattice of overdamped oscillators linking the nodes of the main lattice. Solutions for spatially selective driving of the lattice elements can be found, which optimally balance coherent and dissipative hopping of microwave photons to nonreciprocally route signals between two given nodes. In certain lattices these optimal solutions are obtained at the exceptional point of the dynamical matrix of the network. We also demonstrate that signal and noise transmission characteristics can be separately optimized.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

HOSS: Hybrid Optimization Software Suite

HOSS software, developed at LANL, is a powerful, flexible, and parallelized package that enables the user to predict deformation and failure of materials in a variety of situations. LANL’s HOSS software is an R&D 100 finalist that integrates solid mechanics and computational fluid dynamics into a multi-physics platform able to handle millions of interacting and fracturing solids and/or particle systems. This nextgeneration simulation software integrates solid mechanics and computational fluid dynamics into a multi-physics platform able to provide state-of-the-art simulation solutions for a wide field of applications including oil and gas, construction, mining, defense, material sciences, and biomechanics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗