Demand response for variable renewable energy integration: A proposed approach and its impacts
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McPherson, Madeleine↗
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Optimal pumping schedule with high-viscosity gel for uniform distribution of proppant in unconventional reservoirs
Hydrocarbon recovery from a hydraulic-fractured unconventional reservoir can be enhanced by replacing slickwater with non-Newtonian high-viscosity gel as a fracturing fluid. However, in the literature, the role of gel rheology on hydrocarbon production from a fractured reservoir is not very well understood. This lack of understanding makes it difficult for the industry to choose appropriate viscosity parameters of fracturing gels. Motivated by these limitations, first, we have developed a high-fidelity model of non-Newtonian fluid flow to simulate fracture propagation, fluid leak-off, and gel flowback processes to predict the oil production from a hydraulic fractured reservoir. Simulation results of the high-fidelity model show how fracture geometry, formation damage, and gel cleanup process varies with the fracturing fluid rheology. Therefore, the developed model is used to understand the effect of gel rheology on hydrocarbon production via a sensitivity analysis, which provides a set of rheological parameters that maximize the cumulative amount of oil production. Finally, utilizing this optimal high-viscosity gel, a model predictive controller is designed to obtain an optimal pumping schedule necessary for producing a target fracture geometry and proppant concentration. The closed-loop simulation results demonstrate that the obtained pumping schedule successfully achieved the desired fracture geometry and proppant concentration at the end of pumping, leading to the maximum oil production from an unconventional reservoir.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
How good are learning-based control v.s. model-based control for load shifting? Investigations on a single zone building energy system
Both model predictive control (MPC) and deep reinforcement learning control (DRL) have been presented as a way to approximate the true optimality of a dynamic programming problem, and these two have shown significant operational cost saving potentials for building energy systems. Furthermore, there is still a lack of in-depth quantitative studies on their approximation levels to the true optimality, especially in the building energy domain. To fill in the gap, this paper provides a numerical framework that enables the evaluation of the optimality levels of different controllers for building energy systems. This framework is then used to comprehensively compare the optimal control performance of both MPC and DRL controllers with given computation budgets for a single zone fan coil unit system. Note the optimality is estimated based on a user-specific selection of trade-off weights among energy costs, thermal comfort and control slew rates. Compared with the best optimality we can find through expensive optimization simulations, the best DRL agent can maximally approximate the optimality by 96.54%, which outperforms the best MPC whose optimality level is 90.11%. However, due to the stochasticity, the DRL agent is only expected to approximate the optimality by 90.42%, which is almost equivalent to the best MPC. Except for Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), all DRL agents can have a better approximation to the optimality than the best MPC, and are expected to have better approximation than the MPC with a prediction horizon of 32 steps (15 min per step). In terms of reducing energy cost and thermal discomfort, MPC can outperform the rule-based control (RBC) by 18.47%–25.44%. DRL can be expected to outperform RBC by 18.95%–25.65% ,and the best DRL control policy can outperform RBC by 20.29%–29.72%. Although the comparison of the optimality level is performed in a perfect setting, e.g., MPC assumes perfect models, and DRL assumes a perfect offline training process and online deployment process, this can shed insight on their capabilities of approximating to the original dynamic programming problem.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Optimizing mixed cool thermal storage systems across a connected community
A high level of electric demand flexibility must be integrated into our building infrastructure to enable greater renewable energy penetration in the grid. In the U.S., 9% of electricity generated is used to cool buildings in a periodic manner, making this end-use an ideal target for active management through cool thermal energy storage (CTES) technologies. Historic uses for CTES are designed around central chilled water plants, but these systems cool less than 25% of U.S. commercial floorspace. Emerging technologies are under development to serve the many smaller distributed cooling systems, such as rooftop units (RTUs), and have the potential to add CTES to an additional 66% of cooled commercial floorspace. However, these unitary thermal storage systems (UTSS) lack the modeling and analysis tools to evaluate them in the future interactive grid context. Here, this study develops the modeling and optimization tools necessary to simultaneously examine central and distributed ice storage systems within the multi-building, connected community context. An integrated simulation-optimization workflow is created to allow for rapid customized analysis. Results demonstrate the energy and flexibility tradeoffs of various implementations.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Optimizing district energy systems by integrating Borehole Thermal Energy Storage Using a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming g-function framework with a Multi-Timescale Rolling Horizon method
Shallow geothermal has gained increasing attention in recent years; however, a reliable framework for its accurate incorporation into large-scale energy system optimization remains lacking. This study proposes a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) framework combined with the g-function approach to integrate Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) technology into energy system optimization. Validation against a Modelica-based reservoir network simulation demonstrates that the proposed framework effectively captures the ground thermal response under varying energy loads and accurately estimates the borefield energy supply. To enhance scalability, a Rolling Horizon with Multi-Timescale (RH-MTS) method is further introduced, reducing computational time by 73 % for the 1-year optimization model with only minor loss of optimality. The framework is demonstrated through the case study of the UC Berkeley campus. Results indicate that BTES is a cost-effective and low-carbon solution: two borefields comprising 382 boreholes can meet 8.0 % and 6.6 % of the total campus heating and cooling demand, respectively, at an average energy rate of 0.70–0.77 USD/kWh and carbon intensity of 0.54 kg-CO2/kWh. Short-term analysis reveals a 35%–65% decline in BTES energy flow after 3–6 months of continuous heating/cooling operation, while long-term simulation shows that annual energy production of BTES can vary by up to 12.0 % after four years before stabilizing. Overall, this study develops a novel optimization framework that couples physics-based g-function method with MILP optimization framework, thereby advancing methodological development for shallow-geothermal integration and providing actionable guidance for BTES deployment in district-energy systems.
Yang, Jiahui↗
Physics-informed State-space Neural Networks for transport phenomena
This work introduces Physics -informed State -space neural network Models (PSMs), a novel solution to achieving real-time optimization, flexibility, and fault tolerance in autonomous systems, particularly in transportdominated systems such as chemical, biomedical, and power plants. Traditional data -driven methods fall short due to a lack of physical constraints like mass conservation; PSMs address this issue by training deep neural networks with sensor data and physics -informing using components' Partial Differential Equations (PDEs), resulting in a physics -constrained, end -to -end differentiable forward dynamics model. Further, through two in silico experiments - a heated channel and a cooling system loop - we demonstrate that PSMs offer a more accurate approach than a purely data -driven model. In the former experiment, PSMs demonstrated significantly lower average root -mean -square errors across test datasets compared to a purely data -driven neural network, with reductions of 44 %, 48 %, and 94 % in predicting pressure, velocity, and temperature, respectively. Beyond accuracy, PSMs demonstrate a compelling multitask capability, making them highly versatile. In this work, we showcase two: supervisory control of a nonlinear system through a sequentially updated state -space representation and the proposal of a diagnostic algorithm using residuals from each of the PDEs. The former demonstrates PSMs' ability to handle constant and time -dependent constraints, while the latter illustrates their value in system diagnostics and fault detection.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Lockdown impacts on residential electricity demand in India: A data-driven and non-intrusive load monitoring study using Gaussian mixture models
This study evaluates the effect of complete nationwide lockdown in 2020 on residential electricity demand across 13 Indian cities and the role of digitalisation using a public smart meter dataset. We undertake a data-driven approach to explore the energy impacts of work-from-home norms across five dwelling typologies. Our methodology includes climate correction, dimensionality reduction and machine learning-based clustering using Gaussian Mixture Models of daily load curves. Results show that during the lockdown, maximum daily peak demand increased by 150-200% as compared to 2018 and 2019 levels for one room-units (RM1), one bedroom-units (BR1) and two bedroom-units (BR2) which are typical for low- and middle-income families. While the upper-middle- and higher-income dwelling units (i.e., three (3BR) and more-than-three bedroom-units (M3BR)) saw night-time demand rise by almost 44% in 2020, as compared to 2018 and 2019 levels. Our results also showed that new peak demand emerged for the lockdown period for RM1, BR1 and BR2 dwelling typologies. We found that the lack of supporting socioeconomic and climatic data can restrict a comprehensive analysis of demand shocks using similar public datasets, which informed policy implications for India's digitalisation. We further emphasised improving the data quality and reliability for effective data-centric policymaking.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Assessing electrification readiness in U.S. single-family homes based on a nationwide survey of electrical panel capacities
Electrification of residential buildings is a key strategy for increasing the use of renewable energy sources. Central to this transition is understanding the capacity of existing electrical infrastructure—specifically electrical panels—to safely and effectively manage increased electricity demands from electrification technologies. However, comprehensive nationwide data on electrical panel capacities in U.S. single-family homes is currently lacking. To address this gap, we conducted a nationwide survey of single-family homes, collecting detailed data on electrical panel capacities, breaker slot availability, major electric and gas appliances, electrical panel models, and home characteristics such as construction year and floor area. Photographic documentation was used to verify electrical panel data and appliance information. Results show that approximately 60% of surveyed homes have electrical panels rated at ≥200 amperes (A), indicating that a significant portion of the existing housing stock can accommodate additional electric loads. However, 31% of homes possess panels rated at ≤100 A, potentially restricting their ability to adopt new electric appliances without significant upgrades. Panel capacities positively correlate with both home size and construction year, with newer and larger homes generally better suited for electrification. Homes with higher-capacity panels tend to have fewer gas appliances, reflecting a gradual shift toward electric technologies. Conversely, homes with lower-capacity panels frequently rely on multiple gas appliances, highlighting substantial electrification challenges. Additionally, approximately 3% of surveyed homes had potentially hazardous electrical panel models, emphasizing important safety considerations in the residential electrification process. Our findings underscore the need for targeted policies, financial incentives, and infrastructure investments designed specifically to address infrastructural and safety barriers, particularly in older and smaller homes, to support equitable and efficient electrification across the U.S. residential sector.
Gul, Sadia↗
Designing robust energy policy packages under deep uncertainty: A multi-metric decision support framework
The complexity of transitioning to sustainable energy systems requires policy frameworks capable of balancing multiple objectives while addressing deep uncertainty. However, existing approaches often lack systematic methods to identify combinations of policy levers that remain effective across a wide range of uncertain futures. This paper presents a novel decision support framework that guides the selection of robust policy packages based on their performance across multiple objectives under uncertainty. Our method leverages a large ensemble of scenarios and applies scenario discovery techniques to identify influential policy levers. Here, we introduce new indicators to assess the robustness of policies by evaluating their ability to mitigate adverse outcomes across metrics. These indicators support an iterative process to build a robust policy package. Finally, we map the technological and energy pathways associated with the robust policy package by leveraging an energy system optimization model. We illustrate the application of this framework to the Spanish energy system, providing insights into how specific combinations of policy levers shape decarbonization pathways under uncertainty.
Decision-support method↗
The global policy landscape of ISO 50001 energy management systems
While many options exist to improve industrial demand-side energy efficiency, energy management systems (EnMSs)—particularly those aligned with ISO 50001—are proven to drive continuous and meaningful energy performance improvements. Governments leverage these EnMSs in their policies to advance national objectives including enhancing industrial competitiveness and achieving environmental goals. Existing research has focused on the impact of EnMSs at the company level, while comprehensive work on EnMSs in a global policy context is lacking. We seek to close this gap by investigating the extent to which current national policies incorporate the utilization of EnMSs, particularly the ISO 50001 standard. Our paper employs a hybrid approach, combining a literature review and expert interviews across 28 governments representing > 86% of global primary energy consumption. We dissect policy mechanisms, governance levels, underlying motivations, and trends in present EnMS policies. We find that > 96% of the investigated countries include EnMSs within their policy scope; 90% of policies including EnMSs utilize the ISO 50001 standard in some capacity. Primary policy motivations include decarbonization, energy savings for industrial competitiveness, and energy system resilience. We highlight that in the EnMS context, policy mixes—combining economic incentives, regulatory instruments, and information-based approaches—are more effective than standalone measures. Our work provides a novel global overview of governmental EnMS policies, moving beyond whether EnMS should be adopted to focus on how they can be implemented most effectively.
Moreno, Francisco Luis↗
Iron-iminopyridine complexes as charge carriers for non-aqueous redox flow battery applications
Non-aqueous redox flow batteries (RFBs) have been gaining increased attention in the energy storage arena. Some of their attractive features include the promise for high energy densities, wider voltage windows compared to aqueous systems, as well as wider operating temperature ranges. One of the major challenges in the development of these systems is the lack of electroactive materials that can undergo reversible redox events within the larger potential window of organic solvents. In this paper, we present the design, synthesis, and measurement of electrochemical properties of some iron-based imine- and iminopyridine complexes as promising candidates for RFB applications. Synthesized complexes afforded three reversible redox couples over a ~3 V range. The redox events were also computationally explored and are in good agreement with experimental data. Theoretical calculations show that the redox event at the positive potential can be characterized as metal-centered event corresponding to Fe 3+ → Fe 2+ reduction, while the two redox events at negative potentials are associated with the consecutive reductions of iminopyridine or diimine moieties. This work has led to the identification of a promising anolyte material, [tris(imino)pyridine)Fe][OTf] 2 (1), which is soluble in acetonitrile and is synthesized in two simple steps. This species shows outstanding performance when cycled between 1.0 V and 2.35 V, with 93% coulombic efficiency, 84% energy efficiency, and a capacity decay rate of 0.61% per cycle at 5 mA cm –2 . Further modifications to this kind of charge carrier may lead to the development of high energy density materials for grid scale energy storage applications.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Long-term cyclability of Li 4 Ti 5 O 12 /LiMn 2 O 4 cells using carbonate-based electrolytes for behind-the-meter storage applications
Li 4 Ti 5 O 12 /LiMn 2 O 4 (LTO/LMO) chemistry was evaluated as a potential candidate for behind-the-meter storage (BTMS) applications. Its long-term cycle performance at 45 °C was tested using ethylene carbonate (EC) and propylene carbonate (PC) solvent electrolytes. Over 1000 cycles, LTO/LMO cells exhibited ~80% capacity retention and Coulombic efficiency higher than 99.96%. Electrochemical test results showed the major degradation mode of LTO/LMO cells arises from continuous electrolyte decomposition at the LTO anode and loss of Li inventory. EC and PC electrolytes created distinct surface layers, where the EC reduction products were more effective in passivating the LTO electrode surface. Dissolution and migration of Mn from the cathode was probed as Mn 2+ species distributed throughout the surface layer at the anode. By utilizing a prelithiated LTO electrode, the LTO/LMO cell performance was significantly enhanced with EC electrolyte. On the other hand, PC electrolyte resulted in accelerated electrolyte decomposition at the lithiated LTO surface due to the lack of surface passivation. Thus, mitigating parasitic reactions at the LTO electrode is the key to developing successful LTO/LMO cells.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Private, public, and bottled drinking water: Shared contaminant-mixture exposures and effects challenge
Background: Humans are primary drivers of environmental–contaminant exposures worldwide, including in drinking-water (DW). In the United States, point-of-use DW (POU–DW) is supplied via private tapwater (TW), public-supply TW, and bottled water (BW). Differences in management, monitoring, and messaging and lack of directly–intercomparable exposure data influence the actual and perceived quality and safety of different DW supplies and directly impact consumer decision–making. Objectives: The purpose of this paper is to provide a meta-analysis (quantitative synthesis) of POU–DW contaminant–mixture exposures and corresponding potential human–health effects of private-TW, public-TW, and BW by aggregating exposure results and harmonizing apical–health–benchmark–weighted and bioactivity–weighted effects predictions across previous studies by this research group. Discussion: Simultaneous exposures to multiple inorganic and organic contaminants of known or suspected human-health concern are common across all three DW supplies, with substantial variability observed in each and no systematic difference in predicted cumulative risk between supplies. Differences in contaminant or contaminant–class exposures, with important implications for DW–quality improvements, were observed and attributed to corresponding differences in regulation and compliance monitoring. Conclusion: The results indicate that human-health risks from contaminant exposures are common to and comparable in all three DW–supplies, including BW. Importantly, this study’s target analytical coverage, which exceeds that currently feasible for water purveyors or homeowners, nevertheless is a substantial underestimation of the breadth of contaminant mixtures in the environment and potentially present in DW. Thus, the results emphasize the need for improved understanding of the adverse human-health implications of long-term exposures to low–level inorganic–/organic–contaminant mixtures across all three distribution pipelines and do not support commercial messaging of BW as a systematically safer alternative to public-TW. Regardless of the supply, increased public engagement in source-water protection and drinking–water treatment is necessary to reduce risks associated with long-term DW–contaminant exposures, especially in vulnerable populations, and to reduce environmental waste and plastics contamination.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Using deep transfer learning and satellite imagery to estimate urban air quality in data-poor regions
Urban air pollution is a critical public health challenge in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs). At the same time, LMICs tend to be data-poor, lacking adequate infrastructure to monitor air quality (AQ). As LMICs undergo rapid urbanization, the socio-economic burden of poor AQ will be immense. Here we present a globally scalable two-step deep learning (DL) based approach for AQ estimation in LMIC cities that mitigates the need for extensive AQ infrastructure on the ground. We train a DL model that can map satellite imagery to AQ in high-income countries (HICs) with sufficient ground data, and then adapt the model to learn meaningful AQ estimates in LMIC cities using transfer learning. The trained model can explain up to 54% of the variation in the AQ distribution of the target LMIC city without the need for target labels. The approach is demonstrated for Accra in Ghana, Africa, with AQ patterns learned and adapted from two HIC cities, specifically Los Angeles and New York.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
QUIC-URB and QUIC-fire extension to complex terrain: Development of a terrain-following coordinate system
Ensemble-based approaches to prescribed fire planning cannot be supported by CFD-based models like FIRETEC and WFDS because they are too computationally expensive and cannot leverage LES approaches like CAWFE and WRF-SFIRE because too coarse of resolution. QUIC-Fire was developed to fill this gap but it cannot currently address complex terrain, typical for instance of the Western United States. In this paper, we describe the extension of the diagnostic wind model QUIC-URB, the wind engine of QUIC-Fire, to a terrain-following coordinate system. In particular, the paper presents the mathematical derivation of the wind solver leading to a linear system of equations that are solved through the successive over-relaxation method. The model is validated against a standard test used in previous works (the Askervein Hill) and against a new dataset from measurements in the Socorro Mountains, New Mexico. The terrain-following implementation captured the correct phenomenology for the isolated Askervein Hill, with a wind speed up at the top of the hill. We report the model agreed well with measurements on the upwind side of the peak, but overestimated speed-up on the downwind side of the hill. This is due to the inability of the model to generate flow separation and wake-eddy dynamics. On a common laptop, the divergence-free wind field was obtained in 6 s, making the solver appealing for coupled fire–atmosphere simulations. The Socorro Mountain was highly complex, with many cliff faces, peaks, and valleys. Although the model captures the magnitude and direction of inlet and outlet areas of the domain, it performs rather poorly in the valley region and in the regions near the steep cliffs. Hence, the model shows good agreement with data in areas of open sloped terrain but lacks in areas where flow separation and thermally driven effects may be present (neither effect was addressed in this work). Results highlight that future work should focus on the implementation of parameterizations of wake-eddies, similar to QUIC-URB’s building parameterizations, and on thermodynamic-driven flow.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Explainable machine learning model for multi-step forecasting of reservoir inflow with uncertainty quantification
We propose an explainable machine learning (ML) model with uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve multi-step reservoir inflow forecasting. Traditional ML methods have challenges in forecasting inflows multiple days ahead, and lack explainability and UQ. To address these limitations, we introduce an encoder–decoder long short-term memory (ED-LSTM) network for multi-step forecasting, employ the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) technique for understanding the influence of hydrometeorological factors on inflow prediction, and develop a novel UQ method for prediction trustworthiness. We apply these methods to forecast 7-day inflow in snow-dominant and rain-driven reservoirs. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the ED-LSTM model, with high forecasting accuracy for short lead times. Our UQ method provides reliable uncertainty estimates, covering 90% of data with a 90% confidence level. The SHAP analysis reveals the importance of historical inflow and precipitation as influential factors. These findings and methods may support reservoir operators in optimizing water resources management decisions.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Integrating Intelligent Hydro-informatics into an effective Early Warning System for risk-informed urban flood management
The urban drainage system constantly facing flooding issues in coastal and urban areas. Robust and accurate urban flood management, particularly considering fast-moving compound floods, is crucial to minimize the impact of flood disasters in coastal cities. Till now, Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) lacks an effective means of urban flood management because of flood risk communication among residents. Existing flood risk communication tools rely on post-disaster flood model outcomes and data. Therefore, this research proposes a real-time Early Urban Flooding Warning System (EUFWS) integrated with a user-friendly web and app interface. The backbone of this system consists of flood models developed using machine learning (ML) algorithms, combined with big data and Web-GIS visualization, with ML serving as the core for constructing the EUFWS. EUFWS offer several key advantages: they are available at all times, accessible from anywhere, and provide a real-time, multi-user working platform. Additionally, the system is flexible, allowing for the easy addition of components and services and scalable, adjusting to workload demands. EUFWS have been successfully deployed in Thu Duc City, Vietnam, as a case study and are operating effectively. EUFWS have been successfully deployed in Thu Duc City, Vietnam, as a case study and are operating effectively. Research results indicate that EUFWS supported decision-makers to be effectively risk informed and make intelligent decisions during urban flood emergencies. Finally, this underscores the significant potential of integrating ML and information technology to enhance the management of smart urban drainage systems in flood-prone cities worldwide.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A systematic review of machine learning in groundwater monitoring
With increasing concerns about water scarcity, groundwater has become crucial since this resource provides most of the freshwater needs. However, various human and natural activities often contaminate the groundwater, making it unsuitable for use. Over the years, scientists and engineers have used many methods to predict and track groundwater contamination as part of environmental monitoring. Consequently, there is an urgent need for improved methods, particularly in the face of increasing contamination. Machine learning has sometimes been used to monitor groundwater, air quality, and climate. Traditional methods must be improved due to the complexity and large amount of environmental data. This includes using hybrid models that combine traditional and new techniques. Despite the use of machine learning in many scientific areas, there is a lack of comprehensive reviews focusing on its use in environmental monitoring, especially groundwater monitoring. We aim to fill this gap by exploring machine-learning applications in groundwater monitoring. We discuss relevant methods, their limitations, and future potential. We summarize research on automating data processing and model training using groundwater sensor data. Our research underscores the transformative potential of machine learning to revolutionize long-term groundwater monitoring and contamination detection, providing valuable insights for future research and practical applications.
AI/ML↗