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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

A decade of progress in understanding and managing legacy well integrity for geologic carbon storage

This study reviews a decade of research progress in legacy well integrity and risk management for geologic carbon storage (GCS) to commemorate the 20 th anniversary of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2005 Special Report on Carbon Capture and Storage. In the past ten years, legacy well research has benefited from global efforts to constrain emissions from abandoned oil and gas wells, a continued focus on well materials performance in the presence of CO 2 -rich fluids, and practical experience gained through GCS implementation. Field measurements of abandoned well emissions show that leakage is not universal or catastrophic but forms a continuum of low-to-moderate fluxes that depend on isolation integrity and environmental attenuation. Materials research has constrained the conditions under which Portland cements exhibit self-sealing and non-sealing behaviors, and has identified the impact of geomechanical properties, non-uniform pathway apertures, multi-phase flow, and impurities in the CO 2 stream, on leakage pathways as important new areas for investigation. GCS projects at brownfield sites have inspired the creation of new workflows that integrate various tools and technologies to manage legacy well leakage risks. GCS implementation has also motivated a push towards scenario-based well modeling that directly informs permit applications. These advances inspire new research questions for the coming decade, particularly around the level of legacy well leakage risk that is environmentally acceptable and tolerable to stakeholders when sequestering millions of tonnes of CO 2 annually.

Carbon capture and storage↗
DOE OSTI2022

OVERVIEW OF PARTICLE DEPOSITION MODELS FOR SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL STORAGE SYSTEMS

Deposition models were built to evaluate contaminant deposition on spent nuclear fuel (SNF) canisters. The primary contaminant of concern is chloride, which is dispersed in the atmosphere and then deposits onto the canisters. During dry storage, the primary degradation process is likely to be Chloride Induced Stress Corrosion Cracking (CISCC) at the heat-affected zones of the canister welds. It is known that stainless steel canisters are susceptible to CISCC; however, the rate of chloride deposition onto the canisters is poorly known, based on sparse field data from a small number of sites. The models presented in this study could be useful for determining the rate of deposition on the canisters and the likelihood of CISCC to help with SNF canister ageing management. The deposition models were developed with the commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code STAR-CCM+. Various deposition mechanisms were considered and incorporated into the models, and a sensitivity study was conducted to determine the most important mechanisms for deposition within a SNF storage system. The models included both a vertical and horizontal configuration storage system: NAC International’s Modular, Advanced Generation, Nuclear All-purpose STORage System (MAGNASTOR®) and a NUHOMS® horizontal storage module respectively. The resulting canister deposition on the horizontal canister is visually compared with inspection data taken onsite at the Calvert Cliffs Nuclear Power Plant. These models are preliminary, and development of the models will continue. Future validation exercises are currently being planned, including the Canister Deposition Field Demonstration (CDFD) effort funded by U.S. Department of Energy office of Nuclear Energy office of Spent Fuel Waste Science and Technology. The goal of the modeling presented is to demonstrate a potential modeling technique that could be used to plan and inform SNF canister ageing management programs with predictive models for the timing and occurrence of canister CISCC.

Suffield, Sarah R.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Solar Thermal Energy Planner (STEP 1): A New Decision Support Tool for Solar Industrial Process Heat Applications

Solar thermal technologies are a promising technology to supply low-cost thermal energy to industrial processes, but there are often significant barriers to entry to industrial owners considering these technologies for their energy demands. To overcome this barrier and convey economic value to customers, NREL and Sandia National Laboratories developed Solar Thermal Energy Planner (STEP 1), a new web-based decision support tool for solar industrial process heat systems. At SolarPACES 2024, the STEP 1 tool was still under development; progress, methodologies, and a preliminary case study was presented. With the STEP 1 tool launch in May 2025, in this work, the initial version of the full public tool will be presented with demonstrations of its capabilities using a few case studies. First, the user's process heat needs such as location, process media (e.g., steam, air), process temperature, land availability, electricity and fuel costs, among other parameters. STEP 1 features a mapping interface that allows users to draw land and roof boundaries. The process media and temperature inform technology selection criteria modules that determine the appropriate solar thermal collection technologies, as well as congruent heat transfer media (e.g., hot water, oil, salt). Once the solar thermal technology selected, its nominal thermal production for the given site is characterized using NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM). Then, a modified version of NREL's REopt optimal sizing and dispatch optimization tool determines cost-optimal sizing. Within minutes, the user receives the results of the technoeconomics analysis, including the size and performance of the cost-optimal solar-plus-storage system. The cost of the system is compared to business-as-usual (e.g., an existing, standalone natural gas boiler). Users can download key results to store for sensitivity analyses. Examples of flat plate collector, parabolic trough, and molten salt tower applications with and without PV hybridization for different industrial facility types are presented in this work. The STEP 1 tool aims to reduce barriers to the adoption of solar heating solutions stemming from a lack of familiarity and technical background with solar system design options and costs among industry stakeholders.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Narrow-Channel, Fluidized Beds for Effective Particle Thermal Energy Transport and Storage

Colorado School of Mines (Mines) led this program in collaboration with Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) to characterize narrow-channel fluidized beds of aluminosilicate particles – supplied by Carbo Ceramics – as a means for releasing high-temperature thermal energy in particle heat exchangers and for capturing concentrated solar energy in indirect particle receivers. Single-channel, heat transfer experiments at Mines and reduced-order 1-D models and 3-D two-fluid, CFD models explored many aspects of counterflow, bubbling fluidized beds (net downward particle flow and upward gas flow) for enhancing particle-wall heat transfer at elevated temperatures. Results at Mines on single-channel test sections consistently showed that mild bubbling fluidization increases particle-wall heat transfer coefficients (h T,w ) regularly by more than 4.0x over h T,w values without fluidization at similar conditions (mean particle diameter d p , bed depth Δz b , and bed particle temperatures T p ). Insights from lab-scale tests and modeling studies provided Nusselt number correlations for h T,w and informed the design and fabrication (by Vacuum Process Engineering) of a nominal 40-kWth, particle-sCO 2 plate heat exchanger (HX) with 12 parallel narrow-channel, fluidized beds bounded by stainless-steel walls with embedded microchannels for high-pressure sCO 2 flows. Tests of the 40-kW th HX at the particle-sCO 2 HX test stand at Sandia's National Solar Thermal Test Facility (NSTTF) were limited, due to HX design, to particle inlet temperatures T p,in ≤ 520°C with maximum sCO 2 outlet temperatures T sCO2,out ≈ 440°C, which are well below design conditions for a primary HX in a sCO 2 power cycle for a Gen-3 concentrating solar power (CSP) plant. Total heat transfer $\dot{Q}_{HX}$ remains relatively constant with increased fluidization for fixed particle and sCO 2 inlet conditions because higher h T,w due to fluidization is offset by increased axial dispersion, which suppresses temperature differences between the particles and sCO 2 in the counterflow configuration. The axial dispersion reduces the effective overall heat transfer coefficient U based on T p,in to values around 200 W m -2 K -1 .

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiphase layered transition metal oxide positive electrodes for sodium ion batteries

Abstract Multiphase layered transition metal oxides (LTMOs) for sodium ion battery (SIB) positive electrodes with phase interfaces across multiple length scales are a promising avenue toward practical, high‐performance SIBs. Combinations of phases can complement each other's strengths and mitigate their weaknesses if their interfaces are carefully controlled. Intra‐ and interparticle phase interactions from nanoscale to macroscale must be carefully tuned to generate distinct effects on properties and performance. An informed design strategy must be paired with relevant synthesis techniques and complemented by spatially resolved characterization tools to manipulate different length scales and interfaces. This review examines the design, synthesis, and characterization strategies that have been demonstrated for the preparation of heterogeneous, multiphasic LTMOs with phase interfaces across varied length scales.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Persistent and partially mobile oxygen vacancies in Li-rich layered oxides

Increasing the energy density of layered oxide battery electrodes is challenging as accessing high states of delithiation often triggers voltage degradation and oxygen release. Here we utilize transmission-based X-ray absorption spectromicroscopy and ptychography on mechanically cross-sectioned Li 1.18–x Ni 0.21 Mn 0.53 Co 0.08 O 2–δ electrodes to quantitatively profile the oxygen deficiency over cycling at the nanoscale. The oxygen deficiency penetrates into the bulk of individual primary particles (~200 nm) and is well-described by oxygen vacancy diffusion. Using an array of characterization techniques, we demonstrate that, surprisingly, bulk oxygen vacancies that persist within the native layered phase are indeed responsible for the observed spectroscopic changes. We additionally show that the arrangement of primary particles within secondary particles (~5 μm) causes considerable heterogeneity in the extent of oxygen release between primary particles. Finally, our work merges an ensemble of length-spanning characterization methods and informs promising approaches to mitigate the deleterious effects of oxygen release in lithium-ion battery electrodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nanoscale depth and lithiation dependence of V 2 O 5 band structure by cathodoluminescence spectroscopy

Vanadium pentoxide (V 2 O 5 ) is a very well-known cathode material that has attracted considerable interest for its potential use in solid-state lithium-ion batteries. We pioneer the use of depth-resolved cathodoluminescence spectroscopy (DRCLS) to monitor the changes in the electronic structure of lithiated V 2 O 5 from the free surface to the thin film bulk several hundred nm below as a function of lithiation. DRCLS measurements of V 2 O 5 interband transitions are in excellent agreement with density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The direct measure of V 2 O 5 's electronic band structure as a function of lithiation level provided by DRCLS can help inform solid-state battery designs to further withstand degradation and increase efficiency. In particular, these unique electrode measurements may reveal physical mechanisms of lithiation that change V 2 O 5 irreversibly, as well as methods to mitigate them in solid-state batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying CO 2 Plume Stabilization at Carbon Storage Projects, North Dakota, USA

This study presents an approach for quantifying when injected carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) stabilizes pursuant to carbon capture and storage (CCS) project permitting and site closure requirements. The distribution of mobile-phase CO 2 (CO 2 plume) will evolve within the storage reservoir during and after injection through both physical and chemical trapping mechanisms. CCS policies generally agree that the CO 2 plume’s migratory behavior in post-injection should demonstrate nonendangerment to the environment but do not provide specific guidance on how to meet the definition of plume stabilization, generating some uncertainty for operators. Plume stability herein means the CO 2 plume 1) changes size minimally and predictably in the storage reservoir such that it will not cross key boundaries identified in the permit and 2) does not pose a threat to human health, underground sources of drinking water (USDWs), and the environment because of lateral migration to areas where leakage pathways may exist. Published literature on plume metrics was reviewed to determine which metric(s) may be most appropriate for determining CO 2 plume stability. A technical approach that defines plume stabilization by estimating the rate of change in the geographic footprint of the CO 2 plume with respect to time was developed and illustrated using a case study from North Dakota, USA, as a proposed solution for CCS operators to apply at the project permitting stage. Any prospective CCS operator may benefit from using the same approach to inform the selection of pore space lease and monitoring areas and develop post-injection site care plans.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emerging multiscale insights on microbial carbon use efficiency in the land carbon cycle

Microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) affects the fate and storage of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems, but its global importance remains uncertain. Accurately modeling and predicting CUE on a global scale is challenging due to inconsistencies in measurement techniques and the complex interactions of climatic, edaphic, and biological factors across scales. The link between microbial CUE and soil organic carbon relies on the stabilization of microbial necromass within soil aggregates or its association with minerals, necessitating an integration of microbial and stabilization processes in modeling approaches. In this perspective, we propose a comprehensive framework that integrates diverse data sources, ranging from genomic information to traditional soil carbon assessments, to refine carbon cycle models by incorporating variations in CUE, thereby enhancing our understanding of the microbial contribution to carbon cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulink Modeling and Dynamic Study of Fixed-Speed, Variable-Speed, and Ternary Pumped Storage Hydropower

Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) is one of the most popular energy storage technologies in the world. It uses an upper reservoir to store water which can be later used during high-demand. In the United States, most of the energy storage capability actually corresponds to PSH. Moreover, PSH also brings multiple benefits to grid operation. This report presents the Simulink models of three common PSH technologies: Fixed-Speed (FS), Variable-Speed (VS), and Ternary (T)-PSH. These models are available to the general public on this GitHub repository, which contains the MATLAB model initialization files, the Simulink model files, and supplementary MATLAB code used to obtain the figures in this work. For each PSH model, an introductory description of the model components and other relevant functionalities are provided. For further information regarding the models and the initialization parameters, the reader is referred to the shared files in the repository. This report also presents the dynamic behavior of each model. The response of such models to a load event is analyzed and matched with each model's features. A custom IEEE 39 bus case is employed for the FS and T-PSH simulations, while the VS-PSH is simulated on a simplified three-bus test system due to the computational complexity of the model. For the T-PSH, the steady-state and the switching between several operating modes are also studied in this work.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging large language models to address data scarcity in machine learning for graphene synthesis

Machine learning in experimental materials science faces significant challenges due to the scarcity of data, which are costly and time-consuming to generate, particularly when relying on in-house experiments. Literature data mining offers a potential solution but introduces issues like mixed data quality, inconsistent formats, and non-uniform reporting of synthesis parameters, resulting in partially missing and heterogeneous features across the dataset. Here, we propose data imputation and feature engineering methods that employ pre-trained large language models (LLMs) to enhance machine learning performance on scarce, heterogeneous datasets, demonstrated on graphene CVD synthesis data and the ML-HydPARK hydrogen storage dataset. GPT models perform data imputation via tailored prompting and semantic normalization of inconsistently reported features through embeddings, for example, to harmonize the complex nomenclature of CVD substrates. Beyond yielding more diverse and richer feature representations than traditional methods such as K-nearest neighbors (KNN) and Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE), LLM-based data imputation is evaluated against dataset characteristics and prompting strategies. We vary the level of autonomy granted to the LLM, from generic prompting that leverages pre-trained knowledge for autonomous data generation to data-informed prompting that constrains outputs using target-specific information, and demonstrate which level of autonomy yields superior imputation performance across datasets and feature types. The proposed data engineering methods markedly improve downstream performance; for example, in graphene layer number classification using a support vector machine (SVM), binary accuracy increases from 39% to 65% and ternary accuracy from 52% to 72%. Fine-tuning experiments on both datasets show that combining our proposed LLM-based data imputation and feature encoding methods with numerical machine learning predictors outperforms standalone fine-tuned LLM predictors in data-scarce settings. The proposed strategies emphasize data enhancement techniques rather than refining learning architectures or regularizing loss functions, offering a broadly applicable framework for improving machine learning performance on scarce, inhomogeneous datasets.

Chemical vapor deposition↗
DOE OSTI2023

High event rate analysis technique for the dual-axis duo-lateral position-sensitive silicon detectors of FAUST

The dual-axis duo-lateral (DADL) position-sensitive silicon detector was developed to obtain precise position and energy information for detected charged particles. The Forward Array Using Silicon Technology (FAUST) is currently equipped with 68 DADL detectors backed by CsI(Tl) scintillators for the study of charged particle correlations in heavy-ion collisions where precise position and energy information is essential. When conventional signal processing electronics were used for the DADL detectors, a position dependence of the measured energy as well as distortions in the calculated particle positions were observed. In previous work, waveforms from the detector after preamplification were studied to better understand the features that give rise to these distortions; therein, a waveform analysis technique was developed to improve the energy resolution and linearity in position reconstruction. However, the reading and writing of waveforms for an entire detector array limits data collection rates and adds significant burden in data storage and analysis speed. In this work, the integrators of a Struck SIS3316 ADC were utilized to process 228 Th source data to develop and optimize a new analysis method that captures the benefits of the waveform analysis technique while circumventing the waveform writing requirement. This integrator method – capable of 59 keV (FWHM) energy resolution – was used in the collection of 35 MeV/nucleon 28 Si + 12 C collision data using FAUST to investigate exotic decays of highly excited highly deformed nuclei. In this data, a position resolution of 0.4 mm (FWHM) was obtained for 25 MeV α-particles; for α-particles near this energy that originate from 8 Be ground state decays, a 8 Be ground state width of 30 keV (FWHM) was obtained. The impact of the energy-dependent DADL position resolution emergent from electronic noise on the quality of excited state measurement was modeled and compared to the experimental data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data from: "Towards CONUS-Wide ML-Augmented Conceptually-Interpretable Modeling of Catchment-Scale Precipitation-Storage-Runoff Dynamics"

This data package was generated to support the manuscript “Towards CONUS-Wide Machine Learning-Augmented Conceptually Interpretable Modeling of Catchment-Scale Precipitation-Storage-Runoff Dynamics.” It provides input files, model outputs, plotting data, scripts, notebooks, and documentation used to develop, evaluate, and reproduce Mass-Conserving Perceptron (MCP)-based hydrologic modeling experiments across 513 selected Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies in the United States (CAMELS-US) basins. The files are organized by modeling component and analysis purpose, including rainfall–runoff experiments, snow module experiments, coupled hydrologic-snow experiments, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) benchmark results, model skill metrics, initialization and epoch records, cell-state normalization files, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)-based model comparison files, and data used to generate manuscript figures. Tabular files can be opened using standard spreadsheet software or Python/R data-analysis tools. Python scripts, Jupyter notebooks, and selected MATLAB scripts are included for model execution, postprocessing, plotting, and statistical analysis. Quality assurance and quality control were conducted through the source-data selection and modeling workflow. Meteorological forcing, streamflow, and static catchment attributes were derived from the CAMELS-US dataset, and snow water equivalent data were derived from the University of Arizona (UA) Snow Water Equivalent dataset. Selected basins and time periods were screened during the associated research workflow to avoid missing observations or poor-quality cases. Static geospatial features were processed primarily using Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) and Geospatial Data Abstraction Library (GDAL) workflows. Additional details are provided in the associated manuscript and documentation.

ESS-DIVE CSV File Formatting Guidelines Reporting ↗
DOE OSTI2022

New Industry Partnerships: Solar Energy Technologies Office Support for Early Projects in the Energy Systems Integration Facility: An Agreement Closeout Summary Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO)-funded New Industry Partnerships (NIPs) agreement established multiple new cooperative research projects with industry partners. Each project demonstrated the use of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) as a national asset for research and development, testing, and validation of new technologies to support high penetrations of solar energy on the electric grid. The agreement was launched in 2013 and represented the SETO portion of the DOE EERE-wide Integrated Network Testbed for Energy Grid Research and Technology Experimentation (INTEGRATE) program. The focus of INTEGRATE was on multi-energy system testing and on testing the interactions of energy systems with information technology, communications, and telecommunications (ICT) systems. The NIPs agreement was a bit different from traditional research projects because it was specifically structured to enable partnerships for ESIF testing and as such required at least a 1:1 funds-in cost share from industry partners. In the end, the project engaged six different industry partnerships and resulted in testing a large number of innovative technologies. These included tiny inverters; power-to-gas technologies; and advanced simulation, analysis, and power-hardware-in-the-loop testing techniques. The agreement also provided significant impact for both research and industrial communities. This summary report provides a brief, high-level overview of these projects and their highlights along with lists of citations and other impacts. Readers are referred to the corresponding project reports for more in-depth information.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electromagnetic Radiation Effects on MgO-Based Magnetic Tunnel Junctions: A Review

Magnetic tunnel junctions (MTJs) have been widely utilized in sensitive sensors, magnetic memory, and logic gates due to their tunneling magnetoresistance. Moreover, these MTJ devices have promising potential for renewable energy generation and storage. Compared with Si-based devices, MTJs are more tolerant to electromagnetic radiation. In this review, we summarize the functionalities of MgO-based MTJ devices under different electromagnetic irradiation environments, with a focus on gamma-ray radiation. We explore the effects of these radiation exposures on the MgO tunnel barriers, magnetic layers, and interfaces to understand the origin of their tolerance. This review enhances our knowledge of the radiation tolerance of MgO-based MTJs, improves the design of these MgO-based MTJ devices with better tolerances, and provides information to minimize the risks of irradiation under various irradiation environments. This review starts with an introduction to MTJs and irradiation backgrounds, followed by the fundamental properties of MTJ materials, such as the MgO barrier and magnetic layers. Then, we review and discuss the MTJ materials and devices’ radiation tolerances under different irradiation environments, including high-energy cosmic radiation, gamma-ray radiation, and lower-energy electromagnetic radiation (X-ray, UV–vis, infrared, microwave, and radiofrequency electromagnetic radiation). In conclusion, we summarize the radiation effects based on the published literature, which might benefit material design and protection.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

PPI DataHub Project Data Package: S. elongatus PCC 7942 Circadian Control Bioproduction Transcriptomics (PB-DP3)

The purpose of this experiment was to evaluate how circadian clock regulation impacts carbon partitioning between storage, growth, and product synthesis in Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942 in providing insights to strategies for enhanced bioproduction. Sample data was acquired using a Illumina HiSeq sequencer system and processed for RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) expression analysis. Transcriptomic differential expression analysis revealed coordinated circadian clock-driven adjustment of the cell cycle and rewiring of energy and carbon metabolism. Processed RNA-Seq datasets are openly accessible from the PNNL DataHub project dataset download page and contain secondary processed RNA-seq results files and supporting metadata materials linked to relevant source code information supporting data transparency and reuse.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design, Construction, and Field Validation of a Blown-In Fiberglass Wall System in a Cold, Wet, and Windy Climate

In the Native Village of Tununak, located on Nelson Island in Southwest Alaska,buildings are exposed to wind-driven rain and snow throughout the year. The Cold Climate Housing Research Center (CCHRC) and Knauf Insulation partnered with the community in 2018 to design a residence for a public safety officer. Construction began in fall 2021 and is scheduled to conclude in summer 2022. The house will use integrated trusses with floor, attic, and wall cavities filled with blown-in fiberglass insulation. Hygrothermal models of the building envelope system demonstrate that the high ambient moisture load will wet the outer edges of the insulation annually regardless of the extent and integrity of exterior weather sealing measures; blown-in fiberglass is expected to be more resilient to this wetting than blown-in cellulose. To verify this, researchers will embed temperature, relative humidity, and moisture sensors in the two windward walls of the house to monitor the ability of the blown-in fiberglass insulation to dry out after wetting events that may have occurred during the transport of the insulation to the building site, storage of the insulation on site, construction process, or after installation in the wall. Sensors will remain in place for two years,documenting the wall's performance over time and verifying the design's potential for use in buildings located in climates where the chance for moisture damage is high. Here, we describe the wall system , design criteria, and the results from the hygrothermal modeling. We share details on the monitoring system's components and the planned management and analysis of data. Finally, we explain how the experiences and data from this project will inform future builds in similar locations.

building design↗
DOE OSTI2022

Insights into Methodologies and Operational Details of Resource Adequacy Assessment: A Case Study with Application to a Broader Flexibility Framework

Assessing and maintaining resource adequacy (RA) is a core pillar of power systems. However, recent changes in the physical makeup of these systems and the conditions under which these systems must operate have yielded a renewed interest in the methods, metrics, and assumptions that underpin RA assessments. In this paper, we systematically explore a wide range of RA modeling dimensions, including: the objective function and level of operational detail in the underlying model formulation; the quantity (look-ahead) and quality (accuracy) of data that is available for making operational decisions within those models; and the physical configuration of solar photovoltaics (PV) with battery storage hybrid resources. We apply a set of probabilistic RA tools and production cost modeling tools to a realistic test system based loosely on a future Electric Reliability Council of Texas power system dominated by solar PV resources. Under the assumptions of our system and models, we find that multi-stage probabilistic assessments may provide a more robust evaluation of RA by capturing a wider range of operational and system interactions, but this comes at a computational cost of 1-2 orders of magnitude longer run time depending on the specific configuration. In addition, the information on thermal generator availability impacts RA performance by an order of magnitude more than solar resource forecasts, which is driven by the comparatively larger magnitude of thermal outages than solar forecast errors within our test system. Lastly, the flexibility provided by hybrid and other resources can help reduce system load-shedding event frequencies and enable the system to be more robust to inaccurate forecast information, and alternative hybrid inverter sizes can impact RA levels by 1-2 orders of magnitude. Our results point to the importance of a broader flexibility framework to describe the interaction between (1) flexibility "supply" from both physical resource capabilities and operational constraints considered in the modeling, and (2) flexibility "demand" from forecast errors, thermal generator outages, and other sources of uncertainty, as well as their RA impacts. Results are likely sensitive to the system buildout explored; future work could consider additional system configurations and conditions.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗