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AnalyzeThis: an analysis workflow-aware storage system

The need for novel data analysis is urgent in the face of a data deluge from modern applications. Traditional approaches to data analysis incur significant data movement costs, moving data back and forth between the storage system and the processor. Emerging Active Flash devices en-able processing on the flash, where the data already resides. An array of such Active Flash devices allows us to revisit how analysis workflows interact with storage systems. By seamlessly blending together the flash storage and data analysis, we create an analysis workflow-aware storage system, AnalyzeThis. Our guiding principle is that analysis-awareness be deeply ingrained in each and every layer of the storage, elevating data analyses as first-class citizens, and transforming AnalyzeThis into a potent analytics-aware appliance. We implement the AnalyzeThis storage system atop an emulation platform of the Active Flash array. Our results indicate that AnalyzeThis is viable, expediting workflow execution and minimizing data movement.

Computer Science↗

The Hazards Posed by Mesoscale Lightning Megaflashes

Lightning megaflashes extending over >100-km distances have been observed by the Geostationary Lightning Mappers (GLMs) on NOAA’s R-series Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). The hazards posed by megaflashes are unclear, however, because of limitations in the GLM data. We address these by reprocessing GOES-16 GLM measurements from 1 January 2018 to 15 January 2020 and integrating them with Earth Networks Global Lightning Network (ENGLN) observations. ENGLN verified 194 880 GLM megaflashes as natural lightning. Of these, 127 479 flashes occurred following the October 2018 GLM software update that standardized GLM timing. Reprocessed GLM/ENGLN lightning maps from these postupdate cases provide a comprehensive view of how individual megaflashes evolve. This megaflash dataset is used to generate statistics that describe their hazards. The average megaflash produces 5–7 cloud-to-ground (CG) strokes that are spread across 40%–50% of the flash extent. As flash extent increases beyond 100 km, megaflashes become concentrated in key hot-spot regions in North and South America while the number of CG and intracloud events per flash and the overall peak current increase. CGs in the larger megaflashes occur over 80% of the flash extent measured by GLM, and the majority contain regions where the megaflash is the only lightning activity in the preceding hour. These statistics demonstrate that there is no safe location below an electrified cloud that is producing megaflashes, and current lightning safety guidance is not always sufficient to mitigate megaflash hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of an E10 gasoline surrogate: Qualitative and quantitative comparisons of in-cylinder spray morphology

A minimum-component gasoline fuel surrogate that captures both chemical and physical behaviors of a full-distillate fuel is needed for high-fidelity CFD simulations. This study evaluates gasoline spray characteristics in a direct-injection spark-ignition engine under motored operation. Two fuels are compared; PACE-20, which is a 9-component surrogate formulation of RD5-87, is compared with its target fuel RD5-87, which is a full-boiling range research grade E10 gasoline. The spray morphologies of both fuels are recorded for a centrally-located direct-injection 8-hole spray subject to intake air cross-flow during the early part of the intake stroke. High-speed imaging recorded scattered light of the side and axial projections of the liquid spray. Quantitative metrics were developed and employed to facilitate comparison of spray morphologies as well as to identify the transition in spray morphology due to flash boiling. This paper builds on a previous study of RD5-87 where coolant temperature (20°C–100°C), in-cylinder pressure (40–110 kPa), engine speed (650–1950 rpm), and injection pressure (60–180 bar) were systematically changed to span operating conditions with and without flash boiling. Images of the PACE-20 morphology are selected for a sub-set of operating conditions from the previous study where distinctive morphology changes occurred. Visual inspection of the images and quantitative metrics demonstrate that the PACE-20 spray morphology is equivalent to that of the RD5-87 in most cases. The exception was for changes in the ambient-gas pressure where the flash-boiling transition occurred at ∼5 kPa higher in-cylinder pressure for PACE-20. Three empirical metrics, Merging Index, Asymmetry, and Flash Index are proposed here and they were found to be useful both as quantitative comparisons of the fuel morphologies, and for identifying the transition in spray morphology due to flash boiling.

Kim, Namho↗

Experimental Studies of NGNP Reactor Cavity Cooling System With Water

This project will investigate the flow behavior that can occur in the reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) with water coolant under the passive cooling-mode of operation. The team will conduct separate-effects tests and develop associated scaling analyses, and provide system-level phenomenological and computational models that describe key flow phenomena during RCCS operation, from forced to natural circulation, single-phase flow and two-phase flow and flashing. The project consists of the following tasks: Task 1. Conduct separate-effects, single-phase flow experiments and develop scaling analyses for comparison to system-level computational modeling for the RCCS standpipe design. A transition from forced to natural convection cooling occurs in the standpipe under accident conditions. These tests will measure global flow behavior and local flow velocities, as well as develop instrumentation for use in larger scale tests, thereby providing proper flow distribution among standpipes for decay heat removal. Task 2. Conduct separate-effects experiments for the RCCS standpipe design as two-phase flashing occurs and flow develops. As natural circulation cooling continues without an ultimate heat sink, water within the system will heat to temperatures approaching saturation , at which point two-phase flashing and flow will begin. The focus is to develop a phenomenological model from these tests that will describe the flashing and flow stability phenomena. In addition, one could determine the efficiency of phase separation in the RCCS storage tank as the two-phase flashing phenomena ensues and the storage tank vents the steam produced. Task 3. Develop a system-level computational model that will describe the overall RCCS behavior as it transitions from forced flow to natural circulation and eventual two-phase flow in the passive cooling-mode of operation. This modeling can then be used to test the phenomenological models developed as a function of scale.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Life Cycle Water Consumption and Water Resource Assessment for Utility-Scale Geothermal Systems: An In-Depth Analysis of Historical and Forthcoming EGS Projects

This report is the third in a series of reports sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program in which a range of water-related issues surrounding geothermal power production are evaluated. The first report made an initial attempt at quantifying the life cycle fresh water requirements of geothermal power-generating systems and explored operational and environmental concerns related to the geochemical composition of geothermal fluids. The initial analysis of life cycle fresh water consumption of geothermal power-generating systems identified that operational water requirements consumed the vast majority of water across the life cycle. However, it relied upon limited operational water consumption data and did not account for belowground operational losses for enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs). A second report presented an initial assessment of fresh water demand for future growth in utility-scale geothermal power generation. The current analysis builds upon this work to improve life cycle fresh water consumption estimates and incorporates regional water availability into the resource assessment to improve the identification of areas where future growth in geothermal electricity generation may encounter water challenges. This report is divided into nine chapters. Chapter 1 gives the background of the project and its purpose, which is to assess the water consumption of geothermal technologies and identify areas where water availability may present a challenge to utility-scale geothermal development. Water consumption refers to the water that is withdrawn from a resource such as a river, lake, or nongeothermal aquifer that is not returned to that resource. The geothermal electricity generation technologies evaluated in this study include conventional hydrothermal flash and binary systems, as well as EGSs that rely on engineering a productive reservoir where heat exists, but where water availability or permeability may be limited. Chapter 2 describes the approach and methods for this work and identifies the four power plant scenarios evaluated: a 20-MW EGS binary plant, a 50-MW EGS binary plant, a 10-MW hydrothermal binary plant, and a 50-MW hydrothermal flash plant. The methods focus on (1) the collection of data to improve estimation of EGS stimulation volumes, aboveground operational consumption for all geothermal technologies, and belowground operational consumption for EGS; and (2) the mapping of the geothermal and water resources of the western United States to assist in the identification of potential water challenges to geothermal growth. Chapters 3 and 4 present the water requirements for the power plant life cycle. Chapter 3 presents the results of the current data collection effort, and Chapter 4 presents the normalized volume of fresh water consumed at each life cycle stage per lifetime energy output for the power plant scenarios evaluated. Over the life cycle of a geothermal power plant, from construction through 30 years of operation, the majority of water is consumed by plant operations. For the EGS binary scenarios, where dry cooling was assumed, belowground operational water loss is the greatest contributor depending upon the physical and operational conditions of the reservoir. Total life cycle water consumption requirements for air-cooled EGS binary scenarios vary between 0.22 and 1.85 gal/kWh, depending upon the extent of belowground operational water consumption. The air-cooled hydrothermal binary and flash plants experience far less fresh water consumption over the life cycle, at 0.04 gal/kWh. Fresh water requirements associated with air- cooled binary operations are primarily from aboveground water needs, including dust control, maintenance, and domestic use. Although wet-cooled hydrothermal flash systems require water for cooling, these plants generally rely upon the geofluid, fluid from the geothermal reservoir, which typically has high salinity and total dissolved solids concentration and is much warmer than normal groundwater sources, for their cooling water needs; thus, while there is considerable geofluid loss at 2.7 gal/kWh, fresh water consumption during operations is similar to that of aircooled binary systems. Chapter 5 presents the assessment of water demand for future growth in deployment of utility-scale geothermal power generation. The approach combines the life cycle analysis of geothermal water consumption with a geothermal supply curve according to resource type, levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and potential growth scenarios. A total of 17 growth scenarios were evaluated. In general, the scenarios that assumed lower costs for EGSs as a result of learning and technological improvements resulted in greater geothermal potential, but also significantly greater water demand due to the higher water consumption by EGSs. It was shown, however, that this effect could be largely mitigated if nonpotable water sources were used for belowground operational water demands. The geographical areas that showed the highest water demand for most growth scenarios were southern and northern California, as well as most of Nevada. In addition to water demand by geothermal power production, Chapter 5 includes data on water availability for geothermal development areas. A qualitative analysis is included that identifies some of the basins where the limited availability of water is most likely to affect the development of geothermal resources. The data indicate that water availability is fairly limited, especially under drought conditions, in most of the areas with significant near- and medium-term geothermal potential. Southern California was found to have the greatest potential for water-related challenges with its combination of high geothermal potential and limited water availability. The results of this work are summarized in Chapter 6. Overall, this work highlights the importance of utilizing dry cooling systems for binary and EGS systems and minimizing fresh water consumption throughout the life cycle of geothermal power development. The large resource base for EGSs represents a major opportunity for the geothermal industry; however, depending upon geology, these systems can require large quantities of makeup water due to belowground reservoir losses. Identifying potential sources of compatible degraded or low-quality water for use for makeup injection for EGS and flash systems represents an important opportunity to reduce the impacts of geothermal development on fresh water resources. The importance of identifying alternative water sources for geothermal systems is heightened by the fact that a large fraction of the geothermal resource is located in areas already experiencing water stress. Chapter 7 is a glossary of the technical terms used in the report, and Chapters 8 and 9 provide references and a bibliography, respectively.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Systematic Review of Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Geothermal Electricity

The primary goal of this work was to assess the magnitude and variability of published life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emission estimates for three types of geothermal electricity generation technologies: enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) binary, hydrothermal (HT) flash, and HT binary. These technologies were chosen to align the results of this report with technologies modeled in National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment Systems (ReEDs) model. Although we did gather and screen life cycle assessment (LCA) literature on hybrid systems, dry steam, and two geothermal heating technologies, we did not analyze published GHG emission estimates for these technologies. In our systematic literature review of the LCA literature, we screened studies in two stages based on a variety of criteria adapted from NREL's Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Harmonization study (Heath and Mann 2012). Of the more than 180 geothermal studies identified, only 29 successfully passed both screening stages and only 26 of these included estimates of life cycle GHG emissions. We found that the median estimate of life cycle GHG emissions (in grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour generated [g CO2eq/kWh]) reported by these studies are 32.0, 47.0, and 11.3 for EGS binary, HT flash, and HT binary, respectively (Figure ES-1). We also found that the total life cycle GHG emissions are dominated by different stages of the life cycle for different technologies. For example, the GHG emissions from HT flash plants are dominated by the operations phase owing to the flash cycle being open loop whereby carbon dioxide entrained in the geothermal fluids is released to the atmosphere. This is in contrast to binary plants (using either EGS or HT resources), whose GHG emissions predominantly originate in the construction phase, owing to its closed-loop process design. Finally, by comparing this review's literature-derived range of HT flash GHG emissions to data from currently operating geothermal plants, we found that emissions from operational plants exhibit more variability and the median of emissions from operational plants is twice the median of operational emissions reported by LCAs. Further investigation is warranted to better understand the cause of differences between published LCAs and estimates from operational plants and to develop LCA analytical approaches that can yield estimates closer to actual emissions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Efficient detection, analysis and classification of lightning radiation fields

Modeling the large scale lightning flash structure is considered. Large scale flash data has been measured from strip charts of storms of August 5, August 26, and September 12, 1975. The data is being processed by a computer program called SASEV to estimate the large scale flash statistics. The program, experimental results, and conclusions for the large scale flash structure are described. The progress made in examining the internal flash structure consists mainly of developing the software required to process the NASA digital tape data. A FORTRAN program has been written for the statistical analysis of series of events. The statistics computed and tests performed are found to be particularly useful in the analysis of lightning data.

Harger, R. O.↗

Lightning as an indication of storm severity

There is a substantial case for the theory that cloud electrification is related primarily to strong convection and the sizeable relative air motion that it implies; therefore, the electrification and subsequent discharge rates can be related to the air motion environment of thunderstorms. The isoceraunic contour map used by the WMO for observing and measuring thunderstorm occurrence contains no information on flash rates, flash density, flash relationship to storm severity, or flash variation with meteorological environment. A constant-view geosynchronous lightning mapper would permit simultaneous studies of the lightning discharge patterns and the meteorological environment of storms, thus establishing whether or not there is a reliable enough relationship to use the observed flash rates and characteristics as supplemental guidance for storm forecast refinement.

Dodge, J. C.↗

Severe storm electricity

Severe storms and lightning were measured with a NASA U2 and ground based facilities, both fixed base and mobile. Aspects of this program are reported. The following results are presented: (1) ground truth measurements of lightning for comparison with those obtained by the U2. These measurements include flash type identification, electric field changes, optical waveforms, and ground strike location; (2) simultaneous extremely low frequency (ELF) waveforms for cloud to ground (CG) flashes; (3) the CG strike location system (LLP) using a combination of mobile laboratory and television video data are assessed; (4) continued development of analog-to-digital conversion techniques for processing lightning data from the U2, mobile laboratory, and NSSL sensors; (5) completion of an all azimuth TV system for CG ground truth; (6) a preliminary analysis of both IC and CG lightning in a mesocyclone; and (7) the finding of a bimodal peak in altitude lightning activity in some storms in the Great Plains and on the east coast. In the forms on the Great Plains, there was a distinct class of flash what forms the upper mode of the distribution. These flashes are smaller horizontal extent, but occur more frequently than flashes in the lower mode of the distribution.

Rust, W. D.↗

Spatial Distribution of Lightning Strikes to Ground During Small Thunderstorms in Florida

The spatial patterns of the strike points produced by cloud-to-ground lightning under three small thunderstorms have been analyzed to determine the area flash density as a function of radius from the storm center, the distribution of the nearest-neighbor distances, and the distribution of the horizontal distances between successive flashes. The storm average flash densities range from about 0.8 to 1.6 Fl/km squared, and the average lightning fluxes range from 0.03 to 0.05 Fl/km squared/min. The mean nearest-neighbor distances are about 0.7 km and smaller, but are still in good agreement with a theory that assumes an infinite and uniform flash density. The mean distance between successive flashes ranges from 3.2 to 4.2 km, and a sizable fraction of this variation could be due to channel geometry.

Krider, E. Philip↗

Lightning rates relative to tornadic storm evolution on 22 May 1981

Lightning and Doppler radar data for two tornadic storms in Oklahoma on May 22, 1981 are used to analyze ground flash rates relative to the time of tornadoes. It is found that the ground flash rates had no obvious relationship with the tornado times, although the stroke rate in both storms was greatest after the tornadic stage ended. The variations in the cyclone shear and the intracloud flash rates within 10 km of the mesocyclone region are examined. The results suggest that most tornadic storms have an increase in total flash rates near the time of the tornado and that this increase is often dominated by intracloud flashes.

Macgorman, Donald R.↗

Global Frequency and Distribution of Lightning as Observed by the Optical Transient Detector (OTD)

The Optical Transient Detector (OTD) is a space-based instrument specifically designed to detect and locate lightning discharges (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) as it orbits the Earth. A statistical examination of OTD lightning data reveals that nearly 1.2 billion flashes occurred over the entire earth during the one year period from September 1995 through August 1996. This translates to an average of 37 lightning flashes occurring around the globe every second, which is well below the traditional estimate of 100 flashes per second. An average of 75% of the global lightning activity during the year occurs between 30 deg S and 30 deg N. An analysis of the annual lightning distribution reveals that an average of 82% of the lightning flashes occur over the continents and 18% over the oceans, which translates to an average land-ocean flash density ratio of nearly 11.

Christian, Hugh J.↗

Global Frequency and Distribution of Lightning as Observed by the Optical Transient Detector (OTD)

The Optical Transient Detector (OTD) is a space-based instrument specifically designed to detect and locate lightning discharges (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) as it orbits the Earth. A statistical examination of OTD lightning data reveals that nearly 1.2 billion flashes occurred over the entire earth during the one year period from September 1995 through August 1996. This translates to an average of 37 lightning flashes occurring around the globe every second, which is well below the traditional estimate of 100 flashes per second. An average of 75% of the global lightning activity during the year occurs between 30' S and 30' N. An analysis of the annual lightning distribution reveals that an average of 82% of the lightning flashes occur over the continents and 18% over the oceans, which translates to an average land-ocean flash density ratio of nearly 11.

Christian, Hugh J.↗

The Origin of Hot Subluminous Horizontal-Branch Stars in Omega Cen and NGC 2808

Ultraviolet observations of the globular clusters omega Cen and NGC 2808 have revealed an unexpected population of hot subluminous stars lying up to 0.7 mag below the extreme horizontal branch (EHB), which axe not explained by canonical stellar models. In order to explore the evolutionary status of these stars, we have evolved a set of low-mass stars from the main sequence through the helium flash to the horizontal branch (HB) for a wide range in the mass loss along the red-giant branch (RGB). Stars with the largest mass loss evolve off the RGB to high effective temperatures before igniting helium in their cores. Our results indicate that the subluminous stars can be explained if these stars undergo a late helium flash while descending the white dwarf cooling curve. Under these conditions the convection zone produced by the helium flash will penetrate into the stellar envelope, thereby mixing the envelope hydrogen into the hot helium-burning interior, where it is rapidly consumed. Such "flashmixed" stars will have helium- and carbon-rich envelopes and will lie at higher effective temperatures than the hottest canonical (i.e., unmixed) EHB stars. Using new stellar atmospheres, we show that these changes in the envelope abundances will suppress the ultraviolet flux in the spectra of the flash-mixed stars by the amount needed to explain the hot subluminous stars in w Cen and NGC 2808. To test this evolutionary scenario, we have obtained medium resolution spectra of a sample of the hottest HB stars in omega Cen. We find that these stars axe indeed helium-rich compared to classical EHB stars and also considerably hotter than the hottest EHB models without flash mixing.

Sweigart, A. V.↗

Doppler Radar and Lightning Network Observations of a Severe Outbreak of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes

Data from a single Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak, including three tornadoes that reached F3 intensity, within Tropical Storm Beryl s remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 13 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 h. spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 h. Several other tornadic cells also exhibited great longevity, with cell lifetimes longer than ever previously documented in a landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) tornado event. This event is easily the most intense TC tornado outbreak yet documented with WSR-88Ds. Time-height analyses of the three strongest tornadic supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and to show how these storms appear at different ranges from a WSR-88D. In addition, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data are examined in Beryl s remnants. Although the tornadic cells were responsible for most of Beryl's CG lightning, their flash rates were only weak to moderate, and in all the tornadic storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. A few of the single-tornado storms produced no detectable CG lightning at all. There is evidence that CG lightning rates decreased during the tornadoes, compared to 30-min periods before the tornadoes. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final CG lightning flashes. Contrary to the findings for flash rates, both peak currents and positive flash percentages were larger in Beryl's nontornadic storms than in the tornadic ones.

Mccaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array: Recent Severe Storm Observations and Future Prospects

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array became operational in November 2001 as a principal component of a severe weather test bed to infuse new science and technology into the short-term forecasting of severe and hazardous weather, principally within nearby National Weather Service forecast offices. Since the installation of the LMA, it has measured the total lightning activity of a large number of severe weather events, including three supercell tornado outbreaks, two supercell hailstorm events, and numerous microburst-producing storms and ordinary non-severe thunderstorms. The key components of evolving storm morphology examined are the time rate-of-change (temporal trending) of storm convective and precipitation characteristics that can be diagnosed in real-time using NEXRAD WSR-88D Doppler radar (echo growth and decay, precipitation structures and velocity features, outflow boundaries), LMA (total lightning flash rate and its trend) and National Lightning Detection Network (cloud-to- ground lightning, its polarity and trends). For example, in a transitional season supercell tornado outbreak, peak total flash rates for typical supercells in Tennessee reached 70-100/min, and increases in the total flash rate occurred during storm intensification as much as 20-25 min prior to at least some of the tornadoes. The most intense total flash rate measured during this outbreak (over 800 flashes/min) occurred in a storm in Alabama. In the case of a severe summertime pulse thunderstorm in North Alabama, the peak total flash rate reached 300/min, with a strong increase in total lightning evident some 9 min before damaging winds were observed at the surface. In this paper we provide a sampling of LMA observations and products during severe weather events to illustrate the capability of the system, and discuss the prospects for improving the short-term forecasting of convective weather using total lightning data.

Goodman, S. J.↗

Three Years of TRMM Precipitation Features: Radar, Radiometric, and Lightning Characteristics - Part 1

During its first three years, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observed nearly six million precipitation features. The population of precipitation features is sorted by lightning flash rate, minimum brightness temperature, maximum radar reflectivity. areal extent, and volumetric rainfall. For each of these characteristics, essentially describing the convective intensity or the size of the features, the population is broken into categories consisting of the top 0.001%, top 0.01%, top 0.1%, top 1%, top 2.4%. and remaining 97.6%. The set of weakest/smallest features composes 97.6% of the population because that fraction does not have detected lightning, with a minimum detectable flash rate of 0.7 flashes (fl) per minute. The greatest observed flash rate is 1351 fl per minute; the lowest brightness temperatures are 42 K (85 GHz) and 69 K (37 GHz). The largest precipitation feature covers 335 000 square kilometers and the greatest rainfall from an individual precipitation feature exceeds 2 x 10 kg per hour of water. There is considerable overlap between the greatest storms according to different measures of convective intensity. The largest storms are mostly independent of the most intense storms. The set of storms producing the most rainfall is a convolution of the largest and the most intense storms. This analysis is a composite of the global Tropics and subtropics. Significant variability is known to exist between locations. seasons, and meteorological regimes. Such variability will be examined in Part II. In Part I, only a crude land-ocean separation is made. The known differences in bulk lightning flash rates over land and ocean result from at least two differences in the precipitation feature population: the frequency of occurrence of intense storms and the magnitude of those intense storms that do occur. Even when restricted to storms with the same brightness temperature, same size, or same radar reflectivity aloft, the storms over water are considerably less likely to produce lightning than are comparable storms over land.

Cecil, Daniel J.↗

The Effects of Lightning NO(x) Production during the July 21 EULINOX Storm studied with a 3-D Cloud-scale Chemical Transport Model

The July 21,1998 thunderstonn observed during the European Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Project (EULINOX) project was simulated using the three-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The simulation successfully reproduced a number of observed storm features including the splitting of the original cell into a southern cell which developed supercell characteristics, and a northern cell which became multicellular. Output from the GCE simulation was used to drive an offline cloud-scale chemical transport model which calculates tracer transport and includes a parameterization of lightning NO(x) production which uses observed flash rates as input. Estimates of lightning NO(x) production were deduced by assuming various values of production per intracloud and production per cloud-to-ground flash and comparing the results with in-cloud aircraft observations. The assumption that both types of flashes produce 360 moles of NO per flash on average compared most favorably with column mass and probability distribution functions calculated from observations. This assumed production per flash corresponds to a global annual lightning NOx source of 7 Tg N per yr. Chemical reactions were included in the model to evaluate the impact of lightning NO(x), on ozone. During the storm, the inclusion of lightning NOx in the model results in a small loss of ozone (on average less than 4 ppbv) at all model levels. Simulations of the chemical environment in the 24 hours following the storm show on average a small increase in the net production of ozone at most levels resulting from lightning NO(x), maximizing at approximately 5 ppbv per day at 5.5 km. Between 8 and 10.5 km, lightning NO(x) causes decreased net ozone production.

Ott, Lesley E.↗