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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

The Interval to Biochemical Failure Is Prognostic for Metastasis, Prostate Cancer-Specific Mortality, and Overall Mortality After Salvage Radiation Therapy for Prostate Cancer

Purpose: To investigate the utility of the interval to biochemical failure (IBF) after salvage radiation therapy (SRT) after radical prostatectomy (RP) for prostate cancer as a surrogate endpoint for distant metastasis (DM), prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM), and overall mortality (OM). Methods and Materials: A retrospective analysis of 575 patients treated with SRT after RP from a single institution. Of those, 250 patients experienced biochemical failure (BF), with the IBF defined as the time from commencement of SRT to BF. The IBF was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models for its association with DM, PCSM, and OM. Results: The median follow-up time was 85 (interquartile range [IQR] 49.8-121.1) months, with a median IBF of 16.8 (IQR, 8.5-37.1) months. With a cutoff time of 18 months, as previously used, 129 (52%) of patients had IBF ≤18 months. There were no differences among any clinical or pathologic features between those with IBF ≤ and those with IBF >18 months. On log–rank analysis, IBF ≤18 months was prognostic for increased DM (P<.0001, HR 4.9, 95% CI 3.2-7.4), PCSM (P<.0001, HR 4.1, 95% CI 2.4-7.1), and OM (P<.0001, HR 2.7, 95% CI 1.7-4.1). Cox proportional hazards models with adjustment for other clinical variables demonstrated that IBF was independently prognostic for DM (P<.001, HR 4.9), PCSM (P<.0001, HR 4.0), and OM (P<.0001, HR 2.7). IBF showed minimal change in performance regardless of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) use. Conclusion: After SRT, a short IBF can be used for early identification of patients who are most likely to experience progression to DM, PCSM, and OM. IBF ≤18 months may be useful in clinical practice or as an endpoint for clinical trials.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Modeling deformation and failure in AlSi-polyester abradable sealcoating material using microstructure-based finite element simulation

A plasma-sprayed aluminum-silicon (AlSi)/polyester coating is applied in modern gas turbine engines as an abradable sealcoating to maintain tight clearances between the rotating blades and the static casing. While running the engine, the rotating blades “rub” with the abradable coating, which results in extreme strain rate (up to 10 6 ) dynamics and a high-temperature environment. Due to the difficulty of collecting direct measurements, predictive computational models are important for analyzing the deformation and failure of the abradable material, to help meet the design target of avoiding damage to the blade tip and maintaining high fuel efficiency. In this research, a microstructure-based finite element (FE) computational model was developed to capture the complex mechanical behavior of the AlSi/polyester microstructure. The model is based on a virtual representative-volume-element (RVE) of a metal-polymer microstructure, reconstructed from x-ray computed tomography. It models the plastic deformation of, and damage to, each AlSi and polyester constituents, as well as the failure at their interface. The model was calibrated and validated with uniaxial tension and compression experiments, conducted at two temperatures (298 K and 533 K) at an applied strain rate of 10 3 - 10 4 s -1 . The material exhibited strongly asymmetric tension-compression behavior and a sensitivity to temperature, which was well captured by the model. The model was further applied to investigate changes in mechanical behavior due to variations in constituents’ volume fractions, which provides guidance to the microstructural design of AlSi/polyester abradable materials. The model is expected to facilitate the development of improved abradable materials by bypassing the conventional trial-and-error approach and extensive testing requirements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Intergranular ductile failure of materials with plastically heterogeneous grains

In several precipitation hardened alloys that are susceptible to intergranular ductile failure, precipitation does not always occur uniformly throughout the microstructure, and regions close to grain boundaries may remain precipitate-free. These precipitate-free zones (PFZs) in the material microstructures result in plastically heterogeneous grains, since PFZs are expected to have lower yield strength but higher strain-hardenability compared to the precipitate containing grain interior. Experimentally, the presence of PFZs in precipitation-hardened alloys has been associated with both increase and decrease in materials’ ductility, with or without significant change in the strength. Thus, to understand and rationalize the experimental observations, we have carried out extensive microstructure-based finite element calculations of intergranular ductile failure in materials under tensile loading conditions. In the calculations, both the grain boundaries and PFZs are discretely modeled, and a wide range of the values of yield strength, strain-hardenability and width of PFZs in the material microstructures are analyzed. Our results show that the effects of PFZs on the overall mechanical response of the material strongly depend on the values of yield strength and strain-hardenability of PFZs. Here, there exists an optimum combination of the values of these two parameters that can result in the overall ductility and tensile strength of the material microstructures with PFZs being greater than the microstructures without PFZs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Micromechanical aspects of deformation and failure of advanced Iron-Chromium-Aluminum alloys

Here this work investigates the micromechanical deformation and failure mechanisms of advanced FeCrAl alloys developed for use in nuclear reactors as cladding material. Three different FeCrAl alloys (82-X)Fe-13Cr-5Al-X (X=Nb, TiC, 0 for base alloy) were investigated both in their as-received and welded states. In-situ neutron diffraction with simultaneous digital image correlation was used to determine micromechanical deformation mechanisms not only as a function of elemental composition but also as a condition of state (as-received vs. welded). Ex-situ X-ray computed tomography was used on as-deformed samples to help determine the failure mechanisms and void initiation strains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Modeling interconnections of safety and financial performance of nuclear power plants, part 3: Spatiotemporal probabilistic physics-of-failure analysis and its connection to safety and financial performance

Here, this paper is a byproduct of a line of research by the authors to analyze interrelationships of safety and financial performance of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The result of this line of research is summarized in three parts: Part 1 covers a categorical review of relevant literature and the theoretical bases that support the methodological developments in Part 2. Part 2 introduces an Integrated Enterprise Risk Management (I-ERM) methodological framework to quantify the interconnections of safety and financial performance with a focus on operation and maintenance (O&M) of NPPs. Part 2 has also demonstrated the applicability and values of the I-ERM methodology through an NPP case study. This paper is Part 3, where detailed development and implementation of one of the I-ERM modules, i.e., probabilistic physics-of-failure (PPoF) analysis, and its connection with safety and financial performance is reported. In this article, the physical failure modeling for hardware components is advanced by incorporating finite element analysis (FEA) into PPoF analysis and coupling the FEA-based PPoF with the maintenance performance through a renewal process model. This article covers two scientific contributions: (i) first-of-its-kind incorporation of FEA into the PPoF model of thermal fatigue for NPP components; and (ii) advancing the interface between the PPoF analysis and the renewal process model in order to deal with spatiotemporal FEA outputs and to efficiently estimate the physical transition rates even when the PPoF outputs are dominated by success data. Through the incorporation of FEA, the resolution of the PPoF analysis is enhanced as spatiotemporal conditions such as stress and temperature can be considered explicitly instead of relying on simplified assumptions or analytical models with reduced spatiotemporal dimensions. To demonstrate an application of the FEA-based PPoF analysis and its coupling with maintenance through the renewal process model, a case study is conducted using excess letdown elbow piping in the chemical and volume control system of a Pressurized Water Reactor.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Failure Modes of Platinized pn+-GaInP Photocathodes for Solar-Driven H2 Evolution

The long-term stability for the hydrogen-evolution reaction (HER) of homojunction pn+-Ga0.52In0.48P photocathodes (band gap = 1.8 eV) with an electrodeposited Pt catalyst (pn+-GaInP/Pt) has been systematically evaluated in both acidic and alkaline electrolytes. Electrode dissolution during chronoamperometry was correlated with changes over time in the current density-potential (J-E) behavior to reveal the underlying failure mechanism. Pristine pn+-GaInP/Pt photocathodes yielded an open-circuit photopotential (Eoc) as positive as >1.0 V vs the potential of the reversible hydrogen electrode (RHE) and a light-limited current density (Jph) of >12 mA cm-2 (1-sun illumination). However, Eoc and Jph gradually degraded at either pH 0 or pH 14. The performance degradation was attributed to three different failure modes: (1) gradual thinning of the n+-emitter layer due to GaInP dissolution in acid; (2) active corrosion of the underlying GaAs substrate at positive potentials causing delamination of the upper GaInP epilayers; and (3) direct GaAs/electrolyte contact compromising the operational stability of the device. This work reveals the importance of both substrate stability and structural integrity of integrated photoelectrodes toward stable solar fuel generation.

CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSICS,S↗

Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Two planar polishing methods by using FIB technique: Toward ultimate top-down delayering for failure analysis

Presently two major limiting factors are hindering the failure analysis (FA) development during the semiconductor manufacturing process and technology improvement: (1) Impossibility of manual polishing on the edge dies due to the amenability of layer peeling off; (2) Abundant demand of multi-locations FA, especially focusing different levels of layers simultaneously. Aiming at resolving these limitations, here we demonstrate two unique high precision polishing methods by using focused ion beam (FIB) technique. One is the vertical top down chemical etching at the aimed location; the other one is the planar top down slicing. Using the FIB for delayering not only solves these problems mentioned above, but also offers significant advantages over physical planar polishing methods such as: (1) having a better control of the delayering progress, (2) enabling precisely milling at a region of interest, (3) providing the prevention of over-delayering and (4) possessing capability to capture images at the region of interest simultaneously and cut into the die directly to expose the exact failure without damaging other sections of the specimen.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Failure of wooden sandwich beam reinforced with glass/epoxy faces

The mechanical properties and the failure of wooden beam strengthened with two faces from glass/epoxy composite and a wooden beam without strengthening was studied. Stresses and deflections on both beams, which are imposed in three point bending loading. On the idealized geometry of the specimens with detailed nonlinear orthotropic analysis was performed with a finite elements program. The failure study of the wooden beams was performed, applying the criterion of Tsai-Hill. The shear strength of the adhesive was taken into account. All the specimens were tested with three point bending loading and the experimental results were compared to those of the theoretical approach with the finite elements analysis. Comparing the results, the advantage of strengthened wooden beam against the simple wooden beam becomes obvious. Theoretical predictions were in good agreement with experimental results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Reactive flow modeling of small scale detonation failure experiments for a baseline non-ideal explosive

Small scale characterization experiments using only 1–5 g of a baseline ammonium nitrate plus fuel oil (ANFO) explosive are discussed and simulated using an ignition and growth reactive flow model. There exists a strong need for the small scale characterization of non-ideal explosives in order to adequately survey the wide parameter space in sample composition, density, and microstructure of these materials. However, it is largely unknown in the scientific community whether any useful or meaningful result may be obtained from detonation failure, and whether a minimum sample size or level of confinement exists for the experiments. In this work, it is shown that the parameters of an ignition and growth rate law may be calibrated using the small scale data, which is obtained from a 35 GHz microwave interferometer. Calibration is feasible when the samples are heavily confined and overdriven; this conclusion is supported with detailed simulation output, including pressure and reaction contours inside the ANFO samples. The resulting shock wave velocity is most likely a combined chemical-mechanical response, and simulations of these experiments require an accurate unreacted equation of state (EOS) in addition to the calibrated reaction rate. Other experiments are proposed to gain further insight into the detonation failure data, as well as to help discriminate between the role of the EOS and reaction rate in predicting the measured outcome.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The nature of catastrophic OLED lighting panel failure

Catastrophic failure due to electrical shorting is currently one of the key reliability challenges for commercial organic light emitting diode (OLED) solid-state lighting panels. Here, we explore the origin of panel-killing shorts through the use of a temperature-selective electroluminescence imaging technique that allows us to locate them early in their life cycle and study their growth over time. We identify two general classes of panel defect, termed bright spots and hot spots, which respectively originate from indium-tin-oxide agglomerations and microscale organic semiconductor dust particles on the substrate. The former are largely benign, whereas the latter can lead to local shunts that grow over time and cause catastrophic failure. We understand the growth process as a self-reinforcing cycle, where shunt-induced heating volatilizes the surrounding organic semiconductor, which in turn expands the shunt and leads to even more heating. Finally based on these results, we identify several practical strategies to arrest the growth of early-stage shorts or prevent them entirely, which could reduce the cost and improve the reliability of OLED lighting.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effect of grain size on damage and failure in two-phase materials: Homogenized CuPb

It is well known that spall failure strongly depends on the microstructure of a material. There have been numerous studies to study the effect of grain size on the overall spall strength and the total amount of damage in single element metals like copper. However, such systematic studies remain rare in two-phase materials and alloys. In this work, two incipient spall experiments were performed on a Cu–1%Pb alloy to understand the effect of grain size on the damage and failure in a two-phase material. Overall, these results showed that even though the spall strength did not change as a function of grain size, there were significant differences in the total amount of damage as a function of grain size. A clear increase in the total damage present in the material was seen as the grain size was increased from 32 to either 70 or 75 μm in either of the experiments. Furthermore, this difference was attributed to variations in the void growth rate as the grain size was increased.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Worldwide Physics-Based Lifetime Prediction of c-Si Modules Due to Solder-Bond Failure

Lifetime prediction of the fielded c-Si solar modules due to location-specific weather conditions has been an important topic of photovoltaic research and the economic viability of solar energy. Data analytic techniques such as the performance ratio method, Statistical clear sky model, and Suns-Vmp methods quantify the degradation from measured data of a solar farm, however, the nonlinear time-dependence and correlated degradations make it difficult to use the empirical degradation rates for ultimate lifetime projection. In this article, we propose a complementary physics-based model to predict the solder bond failure caused by mechanical stress associated with the variations of the temperature. Integrating the worldwide weather information from NASA/NSRDB databases, the model predicts the location-specific output-power degradation and the lifetime of a module due to solder bond failure. The model parameters are calibrated against qualification tests involving thermal cycling of specific batches of modules from a specific technology/manufacturer. The results may be summarized as: 1) Modules installed at higher latitudes show a longer lifetime due to reduced damage accumulation. 2) The reduction of temperature fluctuation close to large bodies of water, such as seashores, increases solder bond lifetime significantly. 3) Relatively speaking, modules installed close to the Tropic of Cancer/Capricorn (23.5 degrees North/South) suffer from a higher solder bond damage and have a shorter lifetime, suggesting a conservative design. This model should serve as a building block of a comprehensive reliability framework that can predict the lifetime of a module that experiences simultaneous and correlated degradation mechanisms involving yellowing, corrosion, and potential-induced degradation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

SU-E-T-105: An FMEA Survey of Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) Step and Shoot Dose Delivery Failure Modes

Purpose: To assess the perception of TG-142 tolerance level dose delivery failures in IMRT and the application of FMEA process to this specific aspect of IMRT. Methods: An online survey was distributed to medical physicists worldwide that briefly described 11 different failure modes (FMs) covered by basic quality assurance in step- and-shoot IMRT at or near TG-142 tolerance criteria levels. For each FM, respondents estimated the worst case H&N patient percent dose error and FMEA scores for Occurrence, Detectability, and Severity. Demographic data was also collected. Results: 181 individual and three group responses were submitted. 84% were from North America. Most (76%) individual respondents performed at least 80% clinical work and 92% were nationally certified. Respondent medical physics experience ranged from 2.5–45 years (average 18 years). 52% of individual respondents were at least somewhat familiar with FMEA, while 17% were not familiar. Several IMRT techniques, treatment planning systems and linear accelerator manufacturers were represented. All FMs received widely varying scores ranging from 1–10 for occurrence, at least 1–9 for detectability, and at least 1–7 for severity. Ranking FMs by RPN scores also resulted in large variability, with each FM being ranked both most risky (1st ) and least risky (11th) by different respondents. On average MLC modeling had the highest RPN scores. Individual estimated percent dose errors and severity scores positively correlated (p<0.10) for each FM as expected. No universal correlations were found between the demographic information collected and scoring, percent dose errors, or ranking. Conclusion: FMs investigated overall were evaluated as low to medium risk, with average RPNs less than 110. The ranking of 11 FMs was not agreed upon by the community. Large variability in FMEA scoring may be caused by individual interpretation and/or experience, thus reflecting the subjective nature of the FMEA tool.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-E-T-545: MLC Distance Travelled as a Predictor for Motor Failure

Purpose: To study the frequency of Multi-Leaf Collimator (MLC) leaf failures, investigate methods to predict them and reduce linac downtime. Methods: A Varian HD120 MLC was used in our study. The hyperterminal MLC errors logged from 06/2012 to 12/2014 were collected. Along with the hyperterminal errors, the MLC motor changes and all other MLC interventions by the linear accelerator engineer were recorded. The MLC dynalog files were also recorded on a daily basis for each treatment and during linac QA. The dynalog files were analyzed to calculate root mean square errors (RMS) and cumulative MLC travel distance per motor. An in-house MatLab code was used to analyze all dynalog files, record RMS errors and calculate the distance each MLC traveled per day. Results: A total of 269 interventions were recorded over a period of 18 months. Of these, 146 included MLC motor leaf change, 39 T-nut replacements, and 84 MLC cleaning sessions. Leaves close to the middle of each side required the most maintenance. In the A bank, leaves A27 to A40 recorded 73% of all interventions, while the same leaves in the B bank counted for 52% of the interventions. On average, leaves in the middle of the bank had their motors changed approximately every 1500m of travel. Finally, it was found that the number of RMS errors increased prior to an MLC motor change. Conclusion: An MLC dynalog file analysis software was developed that can be used to log daily MLC usage. Our eighteen-month data analysis showed that there is a correlation between the distance an MLC travels, the RMS and the life of the MLC motor. We plan to use this tool to predict MLC motor failures and with proper and timely intervention, reduce the downtime of the linac during clinical hours.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Collection of Disk Failure Events from Alpine, the Parallel File System for Summit Supercomputer

This dataset contains disk (HDD) failure events collected from the Alpine storage system of the Summit supercomputer, hosted at OLCF, spanning from January 4, 2019, to December 21, 2023 (a total of 4 years, 11 months, and 18 days), covering 89% of its operational lifetime. It includes 3,766 disk failure events, each recorded with its detection timestamp (in ISO 8601 format) and detailed by its location within the storage system - rack, enclosure, and drive slot number.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Disk Failure Dataset from the Campaign Storage System

This dataset consists of 1,389 disk (HDD) failure events collected from the Campaign storage system at LANL. The Campaign system supported various compute platforms throughout its lifespan, including Cielo, Fire, Ice, and notably, the Trinity supercomputer. Each recorded event includes its detection timestamp (in ISO 8601 format) and details such as its location within the storage system—rack, enclosure, and drive slot number. The data, spanning from May 4, 2021, to July 25, 2023 (2 years, 2 months, and 22 days), represents failure events from the terminal years of Campaign's operational period, accounting for 26% of its total operational time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multiaxial Creep-Fatigue and Creep-Ratcheting Failures of Grade 91 and Haynes 230 Alloys Toward Addressing Design Issues of Gen IV Nuclear Power Plants

The proposed research will develop systematic sets of uniaxial and multiaxial experimental data at a very high temperature (850-950°C) for Alloy 617. The loading histories to be prescribed in the experiments will induce creep-fatigue and creep-ratcheting failure mechanisms. These experimental responses will be scrutinized in order to quantify the influences of temperature and creep on fatigue and ratcheting failures. A unified constitutive model (UCM) will be developed and validated against these experimental responses. The improved UCM will be incorporated into the widely used finite element commercial software packages ANSYS. The modified ANSYS will be validated so that it can be used for evaluating the very high temperature ASME-NH design-by-analysis methodology for Alloy 617 and thereby addressing the ASME-NH design code issues.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗