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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis. One of the suggested mechanisms for the production of asteroid–generated tsunamis is by direct coupling of the pressure wave to the water, analogous to the means by which a moving weather front can generate a meteotsunami. To test this hypothesis, we ran a series of airburst simulations and provided time-resolved pressure and wind profiles to use as source functions for tsunami models. We used the CTH hydrocode to model the various airburst scenarios to compare to the results of other simulations and provide time dependent boundary conditions as input to shallow-water wave propagation codes. The strongest and most destructive meteotsunamis are generated by atmospheric pressure oscillations with amplitudes of only a few hPa1 (mbar), corresponding to changes in sea level of a few cm. The resulting wave is strongest when there is a resonance between the ocean and the atmospheric forcing. A Proudman resonance takes place when the atmospheric disturbance’s translational speed (U) equals the longwave phase speed $\sqrt{gh}$ of shallow water wave. Coupling is strongest when the Froude number (Fr=U/c) is unity. A weather front propagates much slower than the speed of sound, so meteotsunamis are most common and dangerous in shallow bodies of water such as the Mediterranean Sea or Lake Michigan. By contrast, the blast wave from an airburst or crater-forming impact propagates at a speed faster than a tsunami in the deepest ocean, and a Proudman resonance cannot be achieved even though the overpressures are orders of magnitude greater. However, blast wave profiles are N-waves in which a sharp shock wave leading to overpressure is followed by a more gradual rarefaction to a much longer-duration underpressure phase. Even though the blast outruns the water wave it is forcing, the tsunami should continue to be driven by the out-of-resonance gradient associated with the suction phase, which may depend strongly on the details of the airburst or impact scenario. The open question is whether there are any conditions under which such an airburst-driven tsunami can be dangerous enough to contribute to the overall impact risk. We have also identified other potential mechanisms for airburst-generated tsunamis: 1) reaction force at the surface from the plume ejected into space, which carries significant momentum, 2) expanding toroidal vortices at the surface, which travel more slowly than the shock wave and can generate a Proudman resonance in relatively shallow ocean (such as continental shelf), and 3) steam explosion from seawater ablation by a “Type II” (Libyan Desert Glass-type) airburst in which the hot vapor jet descends to the surface. On January 15, 2022, the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai volcano, located approximately 60 km north of Tongatapu, the main island of Tonga, violently erupted with a powerful explosion, culminating the period of volcanic activity that started in December of 2021. This event and resulting tsunamis provided an existence proof for the air pressure wave coupling mechanism we proposed. It also suggests that it can be stronger and more significant over much greater distances than we contemplated, leading to global tsunamis associated with impact events on land as well as in the water. Large atmospheric explosions generate global Lamb waves with larger amplitudes, longer periods, and slower speeds than the local and regional blast waves we modeled prior to that event. This paper reviews our analysis and modeling of airburst-driven tsunamis prior to the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai tsunami, which was the subject of two presentations at the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference and is the subject of another paper currently in preparation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Randomized Freeway Stent Study: Drug-Eluting Balloons Outperform Standard Balloon Angioplasty for Postdilatation of Nitinol Stents in the SFA and PI Segment

Purpose: The prospective randomized multicenter Freeway study evaluated the possible hemodynamic and clinical benefits of primary stent insertion followed by percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) with drug-eluting balloons (DEB) over post-stent insertion PTA with standard balloons in the treatment of symptomatic femoropopliteal arteriosclerotic lesions. Methods: In total, 204 patients in 13 centers in Germany and Austria were enrolled and randomized to primary stenting followed by either FREEWAY™ drug-eluting balloon or standard PTA balloon angioplasty. The primary endpoint was the rate of clinically driven target lesion revascularization (TLR) at 6 months; the secondary endpoints include TLR rate at 12 months and primary patency, shift in Rutherford classification, ankle–brachial index (ABI) and major adverse events (MAE) at 6 and 12 months. Lesion characteristics and vessel patency were analyzed by an independent and blinded corelab. Results: At 6-month and 12-month follow-up, TLR rate was lower in the DEB arm compared to standard PTA but did not reach statistical significance (4.1% vs. 9.0% p = 0.234 and 7.9% vs. 17.7% p = 0.064, respectively). Primary patency was significantly better for patients treated with the DEB at 6 months (90.3% vs. 69.8% p = 0.001) and 12 months (77.4% vs. 61.0% p = 0.027). Improvement in Rutherford classifications was likewise significantly better for patients in the DEB group at 6 (94.9% vs. 84.3% p = 0.027) and 12 months (95.5% vs. 79.9% p = 0.003). The percentage of patients with an improved ABI of 1.0–1.2 was significantly higher in the DEB group compared to the PTA group at 6 months (55.3% vs. 35.3%; p = 0.015) but without significant difference at 12 months (48.2% vs. 32.9%; p = 0.055). At 6 months, rate of major adverse events (MAE) was 1% in both arms, and at 12 months 2.2% for the DEB and 3.8% for the PTA group. Conclusion: The Freeway Stent Study shows that the usage of DEB as a restenosis prophylaxis seems to be safe and feasible. The 12-month follow-up results give a clear sign in favor of the DEB group.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Downregulation of microRNA-498 in colorectal cancers and its cellular effects

miR-498 is a non-coding RNA located intergenically in 19q13.41. Due to its predicted targeting of several genes involved in control of cellular growth, we examined the expression of miR-498 in colon cancer cell lines and a large cohort of patients with colorectal adenocarcinoma. Two colon cancer cancer cell lines (SW480 and SW48) and one normal colonic epithelial cell line (FHC) were recruited. The expression of miR-498 was tested in these cell lines by using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). Tissues from 80 patients with surgical resection of colorectum (60 adenocarcinomas and 20 non-neoplastic tissues) were tested for miR-498 expression by qRT-PCR. In addition, an exogenous miR-498 (mimic) was used to detect the miRNA's effects on cell proliferation and cell cycle events in SW480 using MTT calorimetric assay and flow cytometry respectively. The colon cancer cell lines showed reduced expression of miR-498 compared to a normal colonic epithelial cell line. Mimic driven over expression of miR-498 in the SW480 cell line resulted in reduced cell proliferation and increased proportions of G2-M phase cells. In tissues, miR-498 expression was too low to be detected in all colorectal adenocarcinoma compared to non-neoplastic tissues. This suggests that the down regulation of miR-498 in colorectal cancer tissues and the direct suppressive cellular effect noted in cancer cell lines implies that miR-498 has some direct or indirect role in the pathogenesis of colorectal adenocarcinomas. - Highlights: • miR-498 is a non-coding RNA located in 19q13.41. • Colon cancer cell lines showed reduced expression of miR-498. • Mimic driven over expression of miR-498 in colon cancer cells resulted in lower cell proliferation. • miR-498 expression was down regulated in all colorectal adenocarcinoma tissues.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Phase transformation path in Aluminum under ramp compression; simulation and experimental study

Abstract We present a framework based on non-equilibrium molecular dynamics (NEMD) to reproduce the phase transformation event of Aluminum under ramp compression loading. The simulated stress-density response, virtual x-ray diffraction patterns, and structure analysis are compared against the previously observed experimental laser-driven ramp compression in-situ x-ray diffraction data. The NEMD simulations show the solid–solid phase transitions are consistent to experimental observations with a close-packed face-centered cubic (fcc) (111), hexagonal close-packed (hcp) structure (002), and body-centered cubic bcc (110) planes remaining parallel. The atomic-level analysis of NEMD simulations identifiy the exact phase transformation pathway happening via Bain transformation while the previous in situ x-ray diffraction data did not provide sufficient information for deducing the exact phase transformation path.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Magnetic tunnel junction random number generators applied to dynamically tuned probability trees driven by spin orbit torque

Abstract Perpendicular magnetic tunnel junction (pMTJ)-based true-random number generators (RNGs) can consume orders of magnitude less energy per bit than CMOS pseudo-RNGs. Here, we numerically investigate with a macrospin Landau–Lifshitz-Gilbert equation solver the use of pMTJs driven by spin–orbit torque to directly sample numbers from arbitrary probability distributions with the help of a tunable probability tree. The tree operates by dynamically biasing sequences of pMTJ relaxation events, called ‘coinflips’, via an additional applied spin-transfer-torque current. Specifically, using a single, ideal pMTJ device we successfully draw integer samples on the interval [0, 255] from an exponential distribution based on p -value distribution analysis. In order to investigate device-to-device variations, the thermal stability of the pMTJs are varied based on manufactured device data. It is found that while repeatedly using a varied device inhibits ability to recover the probability distribution, the device variations average out when considering the entire set of devices as a ‘bucket’ to agnostically draw random numbers from. Further, it is noted that the device variations most significantly impact the highest level of the probability tree, with diminishing errors at lower levels. The devices are then used to draw both uniformly and exponentially distributed numbers for the Monte Carlo computation of a problem from particle transport, showing excellent data fit with the analytical solution. Finally, the devices are benchmarked against CMOS and memristor RNGs, showing faster bit generation and significantly lower energy use.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feedback and Oscillations: Constructing Feedback Systems for Root Cause Analysis of Oscillations in Power Grids

Dynamic phenomena linked to inverter-based resources (IBRs) have gained global attention. Several IBR-induced dynamics have caused bulk power system-connected wind or solar power plants to trip, and some have even led to widespread outages. In addition, many oscillations have been observed involving IBR power plants. In 2023, the IEEE Power & Energy Society (PES) IBR Subsynchronous Oscillations (SSO) task force published a journal article, “Real-World Subsynchronous Oscillation Events in Power Grids With High Penetrations of Inverter-Based Resources,” in which 19 IBR oscillation events were examined for their causation. Earlier in 2020, another PES task force article, “Definition and Classification of Power System Stability-Revisited & Extended,” authored by prominent academics, introduced converter-driven stability as a new category of stability. The international power grid industry community also took action by publishing the CIGRE Green Book, Power System Dynamic Modelling and Analysis in Evolving Networks (led by Babak Badrzadeh and Zia Emin) in 2024. In August 2024, the Energy Systems Integration Group (ESIG) released a practical guide led by Nick Miller, “Diagnosis and Mitigation of Observed Oscillations in IBR-Dominant Power System: A Practical Guide.” The goal of the guide is to assist practicing engineers in making initial judgments and conducting detailed analyses about oscillations. Finally, when addressing the classification of stability and oscillations, the guide emphasizes a causality-based taxonomy for grouping, such as voltage control-induced oscillations, synchronization-induced oscillations, and frequency or active power control-induced oscillations.

Fan, Lingling [Univ. of South Florida, Tampa, FL (↗
DOE OSTI2015

Seismic Retrofit for Electric Power Systems

Our paper develops a two-stage stochastic program and solution procedure to optimize the selection of seismic retrofit strategies to increase the resilience of electric power systems against earthquake hazards. The model explicitly considers the range of earthquake events that are possible and, for each, an approximation of the distribution of damage experienced. Furthermore, this is important because electric power systems are spatially distributed and so their performance is driven by the distribution of component damage. We also test this solution procedure against the nonlinear integer solver in LINGO 13 and apply the formulation and solution strategy to the Eastern Interconnection, where seismic hazard stems from the New Madrid seismic zone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Witnessing a Large-scale Slipping Magnetic Reconnection along a Dimming Channel during a Solar Flare

We report the intriguing large-scale dynamic phenomena associated with the M6.5 flare (SOL2015-06-22T18:23) in NOAA active region 12371, observed by RHESSI , Fermi , and the Atmospheric Image Assembly (AIA) and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory ( SDO ). The most interesting feature of this event is a third ribbon (R3) arising in the decay phase, propagating along a dimming channel (seen in EUV passbands) toward a neighboring sunspot. The propagation of R3 occurs in the presence of hard X-ray footpoint emission and is broadly visible at temperatures from 0.6 MK to over 10 MK through the differential emission measure analysis. The coronal loops then undergo an apparent slipping motion following the same path of R3, after a ∼80 minute delay. To understand the underlying physics, we investigate the magnetic configuration and the thermal structure of the flaring region. Our results are in favor of a slipping-type reconnection followed by the thermodynamic evolution of coronal loops. In comparison with those previously reported slipping reconnection events, this one proceeds across a particularly long distance (∼60 Mm) over a long period of time (∼50 minutes) and shows two clearly distinguished phases: the propagation of the footpoint brightening driven by nonthermal particle injection and the apparent slippage of loops governed by plasma heating and subsequent cooling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1994

Oscillating behavior of carbohydrate granule formation and dinitrogen fixation in the cyanobacterium Cyanothece sp. strain ATCC 51142

It has been shown that some aerobic, unicellular, diazotrophic cyanobacteria temporally separate photosynthetic O2 evolution and oxygen-sensitive N2 fixation. Cyanothece sp. ATCC strain 51142 is an aerobic, unicellular, diazotrophic cyanobacterium that fixes N2 during discrete periods of its cell cycle. When the bacteria are maintained under diurnal light-dark cycles, N2 fixation occurs in the dark. Similar cycling is observed in continuous light, implicating a circadian rhythm. Under N2-fixing conditions, large inclusion granules form between the thylakoid membranes. Maximum granulation, as observed by electron microscopy, occurs before the onset of N2 fixation, and the granules decrease in number during the period of N2 fixation. The granules can be purified from cell homogenates by differential centrifugation. Biochemical analyses of the granules indicate that these structures are primarily carbohydrate, with some protein. Further analyses of the carbohydrate have shown that it is a glucose polymer with some characteristics of glycogen. It is proposed that N2 fixation is driven by energy and reducing power stored in these inclusion granules. Cyanothece sp. strain ATCC 51142 represents an excellent experimental organism for the study of the protective mechanisms of nitrogenase, metabolic events in cyanobacteria under normal and stress conditions, the partitioning of resources between growth and storage, and biological rhythms.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Data Quality-Aware Framework to Reliably Forecast Photovoltaic Generation and Consumer Load for an Improved Resilience of Microgrids

Photovoltaic (PV) power and consumer load forecasting plays a critical role to ensure operational resilience of the electric grid. Most data-driven forecasting algorithms rely heavily on the continuous availability of good quality data for periodic training and validation. When deployed at the grid’s edge, prolonged disruptions to communications during extreme events degrade data quality. Factors such as missing observations, epistemic uncertainties, data drift, and concept drift are manifestations of data quality that impact the generalization of such field-deployed forecasting models. Currently, there exists no mechanism in the literature to dynamically switch between models under varying degrees of data quality as quantified by certain metrics for each factor highlighted above. This paper addresses this shortcoming by conceptually introducing a data qualityaware framework for reliable PV generation and consumer load forecasting. The framework’s design incorporates components of missing values, divergence tests, and continuous monitoring of generalization performance to detect changes in data quality caused by communications disruptions and trigger specific classes of forecasting models grouped under three use cases (UC1- UC3). As a first step towards validating this framework, real data collected from an actual field microgrid system is used to demonstrate the viability of the three use cases. Results show that the performance is the best in UC1 with an unadjusted R-square value of 0.954, followed by 0.939 for UC2 and 0.757 for UC3.

Sundararajan, Aditya↗
DOE OSTI2016

Post-Fukushima Safety Enhancement Activities in Canada

In the immediate aftermath of the common-cause seismic and tsunami events that triggered the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident on March 11, 2011, the nuclear regulator, the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC), requested that all Cass I nuclear facilities re-examine the safety cases for their nuclear facilities. Lessons-learned task forces were established by the CNSC, and the nuclear utilities, Ontario Power Generation (OPG), Bruce Power (BP), and New Brunswick Power (NBP). The purposes of these independent task forces was to develop relevant lessons learned issues for the Candu nuclear power plants operating in Canada and to identify actions that could enhance safety. Subsequently, a CNSC Integrated Action Plan was developed to address the recommendations arising from the CNSC Task Force Report, and the licensees aligned their actions with this plan. The actions were grouped into four categories, as follows. 1. Strengthening defence in depth; Actions included re-assessment of a site-specific external hazards using PSA; physical plant changes to add further cooling water make-up capability to heat sinks; development of new Canadian standards and updated regulatory documents that address requirements for Beyond Design Basis Accidents (BDBA), Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) and Period Safety Review (PSR); development of a new and novel methodology for assessing multi-unit risk that is consistent with the IAEA construct of defence-in-depth (including a safety goal hierarchy and complementary risk analysis methods that address 'Black Swan' events); enhanced management of hydrogen combustion challenges; and enhanced Severe Accident Management Guidelines (SAMG). 2. Enhancing emergency response; Actions included provision of Emergency Mitigation Equipment (EME) such as transportable diesel-driven pumps or fire engines, transportable diesel generators for AC and instrument power; pre-installed connections to in-plant equipment via easily accessible and protected quick-connect points for water and electrical power; upgraded emergency response centres; enhanced communication systems and protocols; and enhanced emergency response programs, training and exercises. 3. Improving the regulatory framework and processes; 4. Enhancing international collaboration. Actions assigned under categories 3 and 4 were placed upon the regulator. This presentation will focus on the assigned actions in categories 1 and 2. The underlying motivation, objectives, and safety benefits associated with the actions will be described within the context of broader aspects of severe accident mitigation in water-cooled reactors. (author)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supernova neutrino signals based on long-term axisymmetric simulations

ABSTRACT We study theoretical neutrino signals from core-collapse supernova (CCSN) computed using axisymmetric CCSN simulations that cover the post-bounce phase up to ∼4 s. We provide basic quantities of the neutrino signals such as event rates, energy spectra, and cumulative number of events at some terrestrial neutrino detectors, and then discuss some new features in the late phase that emerge in our models. Contrary to popular belief, neutrino emissions in the late phase are not always steady, but rather have temporal fluctuations, the vigour of which hinges on the CCSN model and neutrino flavour. We find that such temporal variations are not primarily driven by proto-neutron star convection, but by fallback accretion in exploding models. We assess the detectability of these temporal variations, and find that IceCube is the most promising detector with which to resolve them. We also update fitting formulae first proposed in our previous paper for which the total neutrino energy emitted at the CCSN source is estimated from the cumulative number of events in each detector. This will be a powerful technique with which to analyse real observations, particularly for low-statistics data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Turbine-Driven Pumps 1998–2018

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of turbine-driven pumps (TDPs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2018 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Consolidated Events Database (ICES). The TDP failure modes considered are failure to start (FTS), failure to run less than or equal to one hour (FTR≤1H), failure to run more than one hour (FTR>1H), and normally running systems FTS and failure to run (FTR). The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. A highly statistically significant decreasing trend was identified in the standby TDP unavailability estimates.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Nanocluster building blocks of artificial square spin ice: Stray-field studies of thermal dynamics

We present measurements of the thermal dynamics of a Co-based single building block of an artificial square spin ice fabricated by focused electron-beam-induced deposition. We employ micro-Hall magnetometry, an ultra-sensitive tool to study the stray field emanating from magnetic nanostructures, as a new technique to access the dynamical properties during the magnetization reversal of the spin-ice nanocluster. The obtained hysteresis loop exhibits distinct steps, displaying a reduction of their “coercive field” with increasing temperature. Therefore, thermally unstable states could be repetitively prepared by relatively simple temperature and field protocols allowing one to investigate the statistics of their switching behavior within experimentally accessible timescales. For a selected switching event, we find a strong reduction of the so-prepared states' “survival time” with increasing temperature and magnetic field. Besides the possibility to control the lifetime of selected switching events at will, we find evidence for a more complex behavior caused by the special spin ice arrangement of the macrospins, i.e., that the magnetic reversal statistically follows distinct “paths” most likely driven by thermal perturbation.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Core-collapse supernova neutrino emission and detection informed by state-of-the-art three-dimensional numerical models

ABSTRACT Based on our recent three-dimensional core-collapse supernova (CCSN) simulations including both exploding and non-exploding models, we study the detailed neutrino signals in representative terrestrial neutrino observatories, namely Super-Kamiokande (Hyper-Kamiokande), DUNE, JUNO, and IceCube. We find that the physical origin of difference in the neutrino signals between 1D and 3D is mainly proto-neutron-star convection. We study the temporal and angular variations of the neutrino signals and discuss the detectability of the time variations driven by the spiral standing accretion shock instability (spiral SASI) when it emerges for non-exploding models. In addition, we determine that there can be a large angular asymmetry in the event rate (${\gtrsim} 50 {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$), but the time-integrated signal has a relatively modest asymmetry (${\lesssim} 20 {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$). Both features are associated with the lepton-number emission self-sustained asymmetry and the spiral SASI. Moreover, our analysis suggests that there is an interesting correlation between the total neutrino energy (TONE) and the cumulative number of neutrino events in each detector, a correlation that can facilitate data analyses of real observations. We demonstrate the retrieval of neutrino energy spectra for all flavours of neutrino by applying a novel spectrum reconstruction technique to the data from multiple detectors. We find that this new method is capable of estimating the TONE within the error of ∼20 per cent if the distance to the CCSN is ≲6 kpc.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Identifying neutron sources using recoil and time-of-flight spectroscopy

Identification of neutron sources is central to nuclear physics and its applications, from planetary science to nuclear security, yet direct source discrimination from measured neutron spectra remains fundamentally elusive. Here, we introduce a Bayesian protocol that directly infers source ensembles from measured neutron spectra by combining full-spectrum template matching with probabilistic evidence evaluation. Applying this protocol to recoil and time-of-flight spectroscopy, we recover single- and two-source configurations with strong statistical significance (beyond 4⁢𝜎) at event counts as low as ∼10 3 . These results demonstrate that neutron spectral signatures can be leveraged for robust source identification, opening a new observational window for both fundamental research and operationally driven applications.

neutron physics↗
DOE OSTI2015

Measurement of the top-quark mass in the fully hadronic decay channel from ATLAS data at $\sqrt{s}=7\mathrm{\,TeV}$

In this study, the mass of the top quark is measured in a data set corresponding to 4.6 fb -1 of proton–proton collisions with centre-of-mass energy √s=7 TeV collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events consistent with hadronic decays of top–antitop quark pairs with at least six jets in the final state are selected. The substantial background from multijet production is modelled with data-driven methods that utilise the number of identified b-quark jets and the transverse momentum of the sixth leading jet, which have minimal correlation. The top-quark mass is obtained from template fits to the ratio of three-jet to dijet mass. The three-jet mass is calculated from the three jets produced in a top-quark decay. Using these three jets the dijet mass is obtained from the two jets produced in the W boson decay. The top-quark mass obtained from this fit is thus less sensitive to the uncertainty in the energy measurement of the jets. A binned likelihood fit yields a top-quark mass of m t =175.1±1.4(stat.) ±1.2(syst.) GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiple Indicators of Extreme Changes in Snow-Dominated Streamflow Regimes, Yakima River Basin Region, USA

Snow plays a major role in the hydrological cycle. Variations in snow duration and timing can have a negative impact on water resources. Excluding predicted changes in snowmelt rates and amounts could result in deleterious infrastructure, military mission, and asset impacts at military bases across the US. A change in snowpack can also lead to water shortages, which in turn can affect the availability of irrigation water. We performed trend analyses of air temperature, snow water equivalent (SWE) at 22 SNOTEL stations, and streamflow extremes for selected rivers in the snow-dependent and heavily irrigated Yakima River Basin (YRB) located in the Pacific Northwest US. There was a clear trend of increasing air temperature in this study area over a 30 year period (water years 1991–2020). All stations indicated an increase in average air temperatures for December (0.97 °C/decade) and January (1.12 °C/decade). There was also an upward trend at most stations in February (0.28 °C/decade). In December–February, the average air temperatures were 0.82 °C/decade. From these trends, we estimate that, by 2060, the average air temperatures for December–February at most (82%) stations will be above freezing. Furthermore, analysis of SWE from selected SNOTEL stations indicated a decreasing trend in historical SWE, and a shift to an earlier peak SWE was also assumed to be occurring due of the shorter snow duration. Decreasing trends in snow duration, rain-on-snow, and snowmelt runoff also resulted from snow modeling simulations of the YRB and the nearby area. We also observed a shift in the timing of snowmelt-driven peak streamflow, as well as a statistically significant increase in winter maximum streamflow and decrease in summer maximum and minimum streamflow trends by 2099. From the streamflow trends and complementary GEV analysis, we show that the YRB basin is a system in transition with earlier peak flows, lower snow-driven maximum streamflow, and higher rainfall-driven summer streamflow. This study highlights the importance of looking at changes in snow across multiple indicators to develop future infrastructure and planning tools to better adapt and mitigate changes in extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗