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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

ZEM: Integrated Framework for Real-Time Data and Model Analyses for Robust Environmental Management Decision Making - 16438

Typically environmental management (EM) problems require analysis of large and complex data sets originating from concurrent data streams with different data collection frequencies and pedigree. These big data sets require on-the-fly analysis, assimilation and integration into a series of models with different complexity for various types of model-based analyses. This is needed to provide fast iterative model analyses based on the latest available data to guide decision-making. Furthermore, the data and model are associated with uncertainties. The uncertainties are probabilistic (e.g. measurement errors) and non-probabilistic (unknowns, e.g. alternative conceptual models characterizing site conditions). To address all of these issues, we have developed an integrated framework for real-time data and model analyses for environmental decision-making called ZEM. The framework allows for seamless and on-the-fly integration of data and modeling results for robust and scientifically-defensible decision-making applying advanced decision analyses tools such as Bayesian-Information-Gap Decision Theory (BIG-DT). The framework also includes advanced methods for optimization that are capable of dealing with a large number of unknown model parameters, and surrogate (reduced order) modeling capabilities based on support vector regression techniques. The framework is predominantly coded in Julia, a state-of-the-art high-performance programing language (http://julialang.org) and incorporates the MADS computational tools (Model Analysis and Decision Support; http://mads.lanl.gov). We demonstrate the application of ZEM for data and model analyses at the LANL Chromium site. The ZEM framework will be released as open-source code and can be applied to any environmental management site. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Monte Carlo studies of ocean wind vector measurements by SCATT: Objective criteria and maximum likelihood estimates for removal of aliases, and effects of cell size on accuracy of vector winds

The scatterometer on the National Oceanic Satellite System (NOSS) is studied by means of Monte Carlo techniques so as to determine the effect of two additional antennas for alias (or ambiguity) removal by means of an objective criteria technique and a normalized maximum likelihood estimator. Cells nominally 10 km by 10 km, 10 km by 50 km, and 50 km by 50 km are simulated for winds of 4, 8, 12 and 24 m/s and incidence angles of 29, 39, 47, and 53.5 deg for 15 deg changes in direction. The normalized maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) is correct a large part of the time, but the objective criterion technique is recommended as a reserve, and more quickly computed, procedure. Both methods for alias removal depend on the differences in the present model function at upwind and downwind. For 10 km by 10 km cells, it is found that the MLE method introduces a correlation between wind speed errors and aspect angle (wind direction) errors that can be as high as 0.8 or 0.9 and that the wind direction errors are unacceptably large, compared to those obtained for the SASS for similar assumptions.

Pierson, W. J.↗

Accelerating the Discovery of New, Single Phase High Entropy Ceramics via Active Learning

High-entropy ceramics have garnered interest due to their remarkable hardness, compressive strength, thermal stability, and fracture toughness; yet the discovery of new high-entropy ceramics (out of a tremendous number of possible elemental permutations) still largely requires costly, inefficient, trial-and-error experimental and computational approaches. The entropy forming ability (EFA) factor was recently proposed as a computational descriptor that positively correlates with the likelihood that a 5-metal high-entropy carbide (HECs) will form the desired single phase, homogeneous solid solution; however, discovery of new compositions is computationally expensive. If you consider 8 candidate metals, the HEC EFA approach uses 49 optimizations for each of the 56 unique 5-metal carbides, requiring a total of 2744 costly density functional theory calculations. Here, we describe an orders-of-magnitude more efficient active learning (AL) approach for identifying novel HECs. To begin, we compared numerous methods for generating composition-based feature vectors (e.g., magpie and mat2vec), deployed an ensemble of machine learning (ML) models to generate an average and distribution of predictions, and then utilized the distribution as an uncertainty. Here we then deployed an AL approach to extract new training data points where the ensemble of ML models predicted a high EFA value or was uncertain of the prediction. Our approach has the combined benefit of decreasing the amount of training data required to reach acceptable prediction qualities and biases the predictions toward identifying HECs with the desired high EFA values, which are tentatively correlated with the formation of single phase HECs. Using this approach, we increased the number of 5-metal carbides screened from 56 to 15,504, revealing 4 compositions with record-high EFA values that were previously unreported in the literature. Our AL framework is also generalizable and could be modified to rationally predict optimized candidate materials/combinations with a wide range of desired properties (e.g., mechanical stability, thermal conductivity).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Deflation as a method of variance reduction for estimating the trace of a matrix inverse

Many fields require computing the trace of the inverse of a large, sparse matrix. The typical method used for such computations is the Hutchinson method which is a Monte Carlo (MC) averaging over matrix quadratures. To improve its convergence, several variance reductions techniques have been proposed. In this paper, we study the effects of deflating the near null singular value space. We make two main contributions. First, we analyze the variance of the Hutchinson method as a function of the deflated singular values and vectors. Although this provides good intuition in general, by assuming additionally that the singular vectors are random unitary matrices, we arrive at concise formulas for the deflated variance that include only the variance and mean of the singular values. We make the remarkable observation that deflation may increase variance for Hermitian matrices but not for non-Hermitian ones. This is a rare, if not unique, property where non-Hermitian matrices outperform Hermitian ones. The theory can be used as a model for predicting the benefits of deflation. Second, we use deflation in the context of a large scale application of "disconnected diagrams" in Lattice QCD. On lattices, Hierarchical Probing (HP) has previously provided an order of magnitude of variance reduction over MC by removing "error" from neighboring nodes of increasing distance in the lattice. Although deflation used directly on MC yields a limited improvement of 30% in our problem, when combined with HP they reduce variance by a factor of over 150 compared to MC. For this, we pre-computated 1000 smallest singular values of an ill-conditioned matrix of size 25 million. Furthermore, using PRIMME and a domain-specific Algebraic Multigrid preconditioner, we perform one of the largest eigenvalue computations in Lattice QCD at a fraction of the cost of our trace computation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Imaging on ballistic missions to comet Encke

Imaging for navigation and science has been studied for a 1980 Encke flyby at 0.4 to 0.8 AU from the sun with spinning and three-axis spacecraft. Trajectory errors, maneuvers, encounter geometry, imaging performance, and data transmission were considered. Onboard comet sightings are needed for navigation. Recommended for a three-axis spacecraft are two vidicon cameras and a nucleus sensor for closed-loop pointing control. The cameras are essentially the Mariner 9 and Mariner 10 instruments; the nucleus sensor is an updated version of a sensor flown on Mariners 6 and 7. For a spinning spacecraft, a framing camera using a charge-coupled device and a spin-scan photometer are proposed. The framing camera would be a new design; it would not be despun, but the spin axis should point along the comet-centered velocity vector. The photometer is essentially that flown on Pioneer 10 and 11.-

Jaffe, L. D.↗

Feature extraction and classification algorithms for high dimensional data

Feature extraction and classification algorithms for high dimensional data are investigated. Developments with regard to sensors for Earth observation are moving in the direction of providing much higher dimensional multispectral imagery than is now possible. In analyzing such high dimensional data, processing time becomes an important factor. With large increases in dimensionality and the number of classes, processing time will increase significantly. To address this problem, a multistage classification scheme is proposed which reduces the processing time substantially by eliminating unlikely classes from further consideration at each stage. Several truncation criteria are developed and the relationship between thresholds and the error caused by the truncation is investigated. Next an approach to feature extraction for classification is proposed based directly on the decision boundaries. It is shown that all the features needed for classification can be extracted from decision boundaries. A characteristic of the proposed method arises by noting that only a portion of the decision boundary is effective in discriminating between classes, and the concept of the effective decision boundary is introduced. The proposed feature extraction algorithm has several desirable properties: it predicts the minimum number of features necessary to achieve the same classification accuracy as in the original space for a given pattern recognition problem; and it finds the necessary feature vectors. The proposed algorithm does not deteriorate under the circumstances of equal means or equal covariances as some previous algorithms do. In addition, the decision boundary feature extraction algorithm can be used both for parametric and non-parametric classifiers. Finally, some problems encountered in analyzing high dimensional data are studied and possible solutions are proposed. First, the increased importance of the second order statistics in analyzing high dimensional data is recognized. By investigating the characteristics of high dimensional data, the reason why the second order statistics must be taken into account in high dimensional data is suggested. Recognizing the importance of the second order statistics, there is a need to represent the second order statistics. A method to visualize statistics using a color code is proposed. By representing statistics using color coding, one can easily extract and compare the first and the second statistics.

Lee, Chulhee↗

Ensemble-Based Support Vector Regression with Gravitational Search Algorithm Optimization for Estimating Magnetic Relative Cooling Power of Manganite Refrigerant in Magnetic Refrigeration Application

Magnetic refrigeration technology (MRT) is considered an energy-efficient and environmental-friendly system of refrigeration that has a considerable potential of replacing the classical gas-compression expansion method of refrigeration. Inclusion of manganite-based material (MBM) in MRT as a magnetic refrigerant has attracted significant attention recently due to cost effectiveness of the refrigerant as well as better resistance to oxidation and corrosion as compared to the commonly used metal gadolinium refrigerant. Relative cooling power (RCP) is one of the most important parameters to be considered while assessing the usefulness of MBM. Its value can be altered through doping with external materials and accurate estimation of the dopant influence is required to achieve the right amount of RCP. This present research work proposes support vector regression (SVR) ensemble models with gravitational search algorithm (GSA) hyper-parameters optimization, for estimating RCP of MBM and to determine the influence of dopants on RCP using ionic radii and dopant concentrations as descriptors. GSA-SVR ensemble model (GSE) is developed by employing the outputs of five different SVR models as descriptors while GSA-SVR ensemble model with averaging (GSEA) uses the average of the five different SVR models as its descriptor. The novel ensemble models outperform other SVR models, specifically; GSE performs better than GSA-SVR model and the conventional SVR model with performance improvement of 269.14% and 283.61%, respectively on the basis of root mean square error (RMSE). Furthermore, GSEA outperforms GSE, GSA-SVR model and conventional SVR with performance improvement of 27.51%, 370.70%, and 389.14%, respectively on the basis of RMSE. The developed GSE and GSEA also perform better than the existing RCP model in the literature with performance improvement of 11.53% and 42.21%, respectively. The results of this research work will not only serve to circumvent the experimental challenges of RCP measurement without loss of experimental precision but also further promotes environment-friendly system of refrigeration.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Casting the Coronal Magnetic Field Reconstruction Tools in 3D Using the MHD Bifrost Model

Quantifying the coronal magnetic field remains a central problem in solar physics. Nowadays, the coronal magnetic field is often modeled using nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) reconstructions, whose accuracy has not yet been comprehensively assessed. Here we perform a detailed casting of the NLFFF reconstruction tools, such as π -disambiguation, photospheric field preprocessing, and volume reconstruction methods, using a 3D snapshot of the publicly available full-fledged radiative MHD model. Specifically, from the MHD model, we know the magnetic field vector in the entire 3D domain, which enables us to perform a “voxel-by-voxel” comparison of the restored and the true magnetic fields in the 3D model volume. Our tests show that the available π -disambiguation methods often fail in the quiet-Sun areas dominated by small-scale magnetic elements, while they work well in the active region (AR) photosphere and (even better) chromosphere. The preprocessing of the photospheric magnetic field, although it does produce a more force-free boundary condition, also results in some effective “elevation” of the magnetic field components. This “elevation” height is different for the longitudinal and transverse components, which results in a systematic error in absolute heights in the reconstructed magnetic data cube. The extrapolations performed starting from the actual AR photospheric magnetogram are free from this systematic error, while other metrics are comparable with those for extrapolations from the preprocessed magnetograms. This finding favors the use of extrapolations from the original photospheric magnetogram without preprocessing. Our tests further suggest that extrapolations from a force-free chromospheric boundary produce measurably better results than those from a photospheric boundary.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Jacchia-Lineberry upper atmosphere density model

A series of increasingly accurate models which are a careful blend of empirical and theoretical formulae were developed. The exospheric temperature is assumed to be a function of: (1) the average and daily variations in the solar flux, (2) the average and three hourly variations in the geomagnetic index, (3) the angle between the position vector and the axis of the unsymmetric atmospheric bulge, and (4) the angle between the position vector and the geomagnetic pole. The exospheric temperature is related to the density by the solution of the diffusion equilibrium equations for the different constituents of the atmosphere as a function of altitude. Other variations are modeled directly as changes in the density. They are: (1) changes due to the semiannual effect, and (2) changes due to the seasonal latitudinal effect. The causes for these variations are not exactly known but may be modeled sufficiently by empirical formulae. The Jacchia model is assumed to be valid over the altitude range of 90 to 2500 km. The residuals between the observed density from satellite drag observations and the computed densities show the mean relative error to be generally less than 10 percent with occasional peak errors near 50 percent.

Mueller, A. C.↗

Flux-vector splitting for unsteady calculations on dynamic meshes

The method of flux vector splitting used is that of Van Leer. The fluxes split in this manner have the advantage of being continuously differentiable at eigenvalue sign changes and this allows normal shocks to be captured with at most two interior zones, although in practice only one zone is usually observed. The fluxes as originally derived, however did not include the necessary terms appropriate for calculations on a dynamic mesh. The extension of the splitting to include these terms while retaining the advantages of the original splitting is the main purpose of this investigation. In addition, the use of multiple grids to reduce the computer time is investigated. A subiterative procedure to eliminate factorization and linearization error so that larger time steps can be used is also investigated.

Anderson, W. Kyle↗

Doppler Lidar Sensor for Precision Navigation in GPS-Deprived Environment

Landing mission concepts that are being developed for exploration of solar system bodies are increasingly ambitious in their implementations and objectives. Most of these missions require accurate position and velocity data during their descent phase in order to ensure safe, soft landing at the pre-designated sites. Data from the vehicle's Inertial Measurement Unit will not be sufficient due to significant drift error after extended travel time in space. Therefore, an onboard sensor is required to provide the necessary data for landing in the GPS-deprived environment of space. For this reason, NASA Langley Research Center has been developing an advanced Doppler lidar sensor capable of providing accurate and reliable data suitable for operation in the highly constrained environment of space. The Doppler lidar transmits three laser beams in different directions toward the ground. The signal from each beam provides the platform velocity and range to the ground along the laser line-of-sight (LOS). The six LOS measurements are then combined in order to determine the three components of the vehicle velocity vector, and to accurately measure altitude and attitude angles relative to the local ground. These measurements are used by an autonomous Guidance, Navigation, and Control system to accurately navigate the vehicle from a few kilometers above the ground to the designated location and to execute a gentle touchdown. A prototype version of our lidar sensor has been completed for a closed-loop demonstration onboard a rocket-powered terrestrial free-flyer vehicle.

Amzajerdian, F.↗

Three methods of presenting flight vector information in a head-up display during simulated STOL approaches

A simulator study was conducted to determine the usefulness of adding flight path vector symbology to a head-up display designed to improve glide-slope tracking performance during steep 7.5 deg visual approaches in STOL aircraft. All displays included a fixed attitude symbol, a pitch- and roll-stabilized horizon bar, and a glide-slope reference bar parallel to and 7.5 deg below the horizon bar. The displays differed with respect to the flight-path marker (FPM) symbol: display 1 had no FPM symbol; display 2 had an air-referenced FPM, and display 3 had a ground-referenced FPM. No differences between displays 1 and 2 were found on any of the performance measures. Display 3 was found to decrease height error in the early part of the approach and to reduce descent rate variation over the entire approach. Two measures of workload did not indicate any differences between the displays.

Dwyer, J. H., III↗

Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Loads Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Artificial Neural Networks with Exogenous Vector Inputs

Short-term load forecasting is crucial for the operations planning of an electrical grid. Forecasting the next 24 h of electrical load in a grid allows operators to plan and optimize their resources. The purpose of this study is to develop a more accurate short-term load forecasting method utilizing non-linear autoregressive artificial neural networks (ANN) with exogenous multi-variable input (NARX). The proposed implementation of the network is new: the neural network is trained in open-loop using actual load and weather data, and then, the network is placed in closed-loop to generate a forecast using the predicted load as the feedback input. Unlike the existing short-term load forecasting methods using ANNs, the proposed method uses its own output as the input in order to improve the accuracy, thus effectively implementing a feedback loop for the load, making it less dependent on external data. Using the proposed framework, mean absolute percent errors in the forecast in the order of 1% have been achieved, which is a 30% improvement on the average error using feedforward ANNs, ARMAX and state space methods, which can result in large savings by avoiding commissioning of unnecessary power plants. The New England electrical load data are used to train and validate the forecast prediction.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria User Manual – Version 4.40

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number (Re < 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian- Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton’s method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton- Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic ℎ-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria’s more advanced capabilities. Aria is based upon the Sierra Framework.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria User Manual (V.4.44)

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number ( %3C 1 ) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian- Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton's method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton- Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic h -adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria's more advanced capabilities. Aria is based upon the Sierra Framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria User Manual Version 4.46.

Aria is a Galerkin fnite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process fows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number ( %3C 1 ) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian- Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton's method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton- Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic h -adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria's more advanced capabilities. Aria is based upon the Sierra Framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria User Manual Version 4.42

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number (Re < 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian- Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton's method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton- Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic h-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria's more advanced capabilities. Aria is based upon the Sierra Framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria User Manual - Version 4.50

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process fows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number ( Re < 1 ) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian- Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton's method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton- Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic h-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria's more advanced capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗