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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

Haplotype‐resolved genome assembly of Populus tremula × P. alba reveals aspen‐specific megabase satellite DNA

SUMMARY Populus species play a foundational role in diverse ecosystems and are important renewable feedstocks for bioenergy and bioproducts. Hybrid aspen Populus tremula × P. alba INRA 717‐1B4 is a widely used transformation model in tree functional genomics and biotechnology research. As an outcrossing interspecific hybrid, its genome is riddled with sequence polymorphisms which present a challenge for sequence‐sensitive analyses. Here we report a telomere‐to‐telomere genome for this hybrid aspen with two chromosome‐scale, haplotype‐resolved assemblies. We performed a comprehensive analysis of the repetitive landscape and identified both tandem repeat array‐based and array‐less centromeres. Unexpectedly, the most abundant satellite repeats in both haplotypes lie outside of the centromeres, consist of a 147 bp monomer PtaM147, frequently span >1 megabases, and form heterochromatic knobs. PtaM147 repeats are detected exclusively in aspens (section Populus ) but PtaM147‐like sequences occur in LTR‐retrotransposons of closely related species, suggesting their origin from the retrotransposons. The genomic resource generated for this transformation model genotype has greatly improved the design and analysis of genome editing experiments that are highly sensitive to sequence polymorphisms. The work should motivate future hypothesis‐driven research to probe into the function of the abundant and aspen‐specific PtaM147 satellite DNA.

Zhou, Ran↗

CLM simulated data at three FLUXNET sites and three SNOTEL sites in the Colorado River Basin

This data package includes 6 csv files that include Community Land Model (CLM) simulations for three Fluxnet sites (i.e., US-NR1, US-GLE and US-VCM) and three SNOTEL sites (i.e., ER-BT, ER-SP and ER-PK) in the Upper Colorado River Basin area. Data inputs include meteorological forcing data (obtained from Fluxnet and SNOTEL databases) and CLM-simulated evapotranspiration (ET) data from 2005 to 2016. These datasets support the development of subseasonal regime approach based on statistics driven Hidden Markov Model to assess intra- and inter-annual variability of ET, which improves our understanding of climate change's impacts on water resources and ecosystem dynamics in the Colorado River Basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SolarPlus Optimizer: Integrated Control of Solar, Batteries, and Flexible Loads for Small Commercial Buildings

Building-level microgrids may be a key strategy to unlock the combined potential of flexible loads, renewable generation, and energy storage. However, few software options exist for integrated control of building loads and other distributed energy resources at this scale. The commercial software solutions on the market can force customers to adopt one particular ecosystem of products, thus limiting consumer choice. The SolarPlus Optimizer (SPO) is an open-source building-level microgrid control platform that uses Model Predictive Control to optimize both building loads and behind-the-meter energy storage to reduce energy bills and increase demand flexibility. This paper evaluates the capabilities of SPO in a small commercial building in Northern California under multiple electricity tariffs and demand response scenarios. Comparing SPO operation with an emulated battery and baseline operation employing a commercial optimization service, SPO reduced electricity bills by an estimated 7.3% in summer, 3.2% in spring, and 3.7% in winter. In a “load shape” scenario meant to counter the “duck curve”, SPO achieved 71% fewer violations from the load signal than the baseline control method. During a three hour long load shed event, SPO reduced cooling and refrigeration load by 38%. This research shows significant potential to provide load flexibility for building-level microgrids for this type of control systems. Finally, the paper discusses the future direction of research on open-source control systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Griffin/Pronghorn PBMR-400 Benchmark Results [Slides]

Content Overview: 1) Pronghorn & Griffin, MOOSE based applications overview: Codes capabilities description & MOOSE ecosystem overiew; Current research activities and synergies with other projects; Different multiphysics coupling scheme description. 2) PBMR-400 Benchmark: OECD NEA Benchmark and Pronghorn/Griffin models description; Standalone NK Ex1 and TH Ex2 Results description; Coupled Steady state Ex3; Results analysis for Transiet Ex4a (100-40-100 Load Following) & Ex3 (Protected PLOFC). 3) Conclusions $ Future steps.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

AGN-201 Digital Twin Concept of Operations

The AGN-201 is a nuclear reactor at Idaho State University (ISU) and is currently being used in the development of a digital twin (DT) with Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The goal is to create a DT (called the AGN-201 DT) which can monitor an operating nuclear reactor to determine when the reactor is being operated normally; normal operations are any operations that is declared by the ISU staff. To accomplish this, researchers at INL developed a DT ecosystem which can ingest data from the AGN-201 reactor. This data is fed into a series of machine learning (ML) and reactor physics models. The ML and reactor physics models assess the data and determine if the reactor is operating normally. Event(s) that are flagged as anomalies are investigated by the INL staff to determine if any undeclared experiments were conducted. The AGN-201 DT was verified in July/August 2023, when the ISU staff performed undeclared experiments and the INL staff were able to assess the anomalous events and determine what likely caused each event. This project was a steppingstone to promote the use of DTs for international safeguards and marks the first time a DT was able to monitor a nuclear reactor for this purpose. This document provides the concept of operations (CONOPS) for the AGN-201 digital twin (DT). The CONOPS describes how the AGN-201 and AGN-201 DT are expected to operate and details how each are established.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

The Latent Dirichlet Allocation model applied to airborne LiDAR data: A case study on mapping forest degradation associated with fragmentation and fire in the Amazon region

1. LiDAR data are being increasingly used to provide a detailed characterization of the vertical profile of forests. This characterization enables the generation of new insights on the influence of environmental drivers and anthropogenic disturbances on forest structure as well as on how forest structure influences important ecosystem functions and services. Unfortunately, extracting information from LiDAR data in a way that enables the spatial visualization of forest structure, as well as its temporal changes, is challenging due to the high dimensionality of these data. 2. In this study, we show how the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model applied to LiDAR data (LidarLDA) can be used to identify forest structural types and how the relative abundance of these forest types changes throughout the landscape. The code to fit this model is made available through the open-source r package LidarLDA in github. We illustrate the use of LidarLDA both with simulated data and data from a large-scale fire experiment in the Brazilian Amazon region. 3. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that LidarLDA accurately identifies the number of forest types as well as their spatial distribution and absorptance probabilities. For the empirical data, we found that LidarLDA detects both landscape-level patterns in forest structure as well as the strong interacting effect of fire and forest fragmentation on forest structure based on the experimental fire plots. More specifically, LidarLDA reveals that proximity to forest edge exacerbates the impact of fires, and that burned forests remain structurally different from unburned areas for at least 7 years, even when burned only once. Importantly, LidarLDA generates insights on the 3D structure of forest that cannot be obtained using more standard approaches that just focus on top-of-the-canopy information (e.g. canopy height models based on LiDAR data). 4. By enabling the mapping of forest structure and its temporal changes, we believe that LidarLDA will be of broad utility to the ecological research community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating very-high-resolution imagery, Sentinel-2 time-series data, and machine learning to map shrub fractional abundance across arid and semi-arid ecosystems in China

Shrub fractional abundance (SFA), the proportion of shrub cover per unit area, serves as a critical indicator of environmental aridity and ecosystem health in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly across the Mongolian steppe. However, large-scale SFA mapping in Mongolian steppe ecosystems remains challenging due to the small crown size of shrubs, their sparse distribution, and spectral overlap with coexisting low vegetation (e.g., grasses and herbs), which hinders accurate detection using coarser-resolution satellite data or traditional field surveys. To address these challenges, we developed a two-step approach that integrates very-high-resolution (VHR) imagery, time-series Sentinel-2 data, and deep learning techniques. First, we generated high-accuracy benchmark maps of individual shrub crowns from 0.5 m VHR imagery by combining manual segmentation with a hybrid deep learning framework (Dino V2 and convolutional neural networks). Second, we used these shrub crown maps as training data to build an XGBoost model for predicting SFA from 20 m Sentinel-2 time-series data, leveraging phenological information to improve estimation. We validated our approach across 70 sites (1km 2 each) in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, which is representative of Mongolian steppe ecosystems. From VHR imagery, we mapped 1.31 million shrub crowns with an accuracy of R 2 = 0.92. Scaling up with Sentinel-2 data yielded regional SFA maps with an R 2 = 0.60. Further SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis on the developed XGBoost model revealed that phenological metrics (particularly observations in early-May, mid-July, and late-September), which distinguish shrub phenology from that of other land cover types (e.g., grasses and bare soil), were the most influential predictors of SFA. Finally, our regional SFA maps uncovered unimodal relationships between shrub distribution and climate variables, peaking at mean annual minimum temperatures near 0 °C and annual precipitation around 200 mm. Collectively, these findings demonstrate how the integration of multi-source remote sensing and machine learning can overcome historical limitations in SFA mapping, enabling accurate, spatially continuous assessments across vast Inner-Mongolian steppe ecosystems. Our framework has the potential to be applied to other steppe ecosystems and dryland ecosystems across the Mongolian steppe and beyond, offering a foundation for improved monitoring and ecological impact assessments in the face of global climate changes.

Arid and semi-arid landscapes↗

Development of an open-source regional data assimilation system in PEcAn v. 1.7.2: application to carbon cycle reanalysis across the contiguous US using SIPNET

Abstract. The ability to monitor, understand, and predict the dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle requires the capacity to robustly and coherently synthesize multiple streams of information that each provide partial information about different pools and fluxes. In this study, we introduce a new terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation system, built on the PEcAn model–data eco-informatics system, and its application for the development of a proof-of-concept carbon “reanalysis” product that harmonizes carbon pools (leaf, wood, soil) and fluxes (GPP, Ra, Rh, NEE) across the contiguous United States from 1986–2019. We first calibrated this system against plant trait and flux tower net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using a novel emulated hierarchical Bayesian approach. Next, we extended the Tobit–Wishart ensemble filter (TWEnF) state data assimilation (SDA) framework, a generalization of the common ensemble Kalman filter which accounts for censored data and provides a fully Bayesian estimate of model process error, to a regional-scale system with a calibrated localization. Combined with additional workflows for propagating parameter, initial condition, and driver uncertainty, this represents the most complete and robust uncertainty accounting available for terrestrial carbon models. Our initial reanalysis was run on an irregular grid of ∼ 500 points selected using a stratified sampling method to efficiently capture environmental heterogeneity. Remotely sensed observations of aboveground biomass (Landsat LandTrendr) and leaf area index (LAI) (MODIS MOD15) were sequentially assimilated into the SIPNET model. Reanalysis soil carbon, which was indirectly constrained based on modeled covariances, showed general agreement with SoilGrids, an independent soil carbon data product. Reanalysis NEE, which was constrained based on posterior ensemble weights, also showed good agreement with eddy flux tower NEE and reduced root mean square error (RMSE) compared to the calibrated forecast. Ultimately, PEcAn's new open-source regional data assimilation framework provides a scalable workflow for harmonizing multiple data constraints and providing a uniform synthetic platform for carbon monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) as well as accelerating terrestrial carbon cycle research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Drought legacies mediated by trait trade‐offs in soil microbiomes

Abstract Soil microbiomes play a key role in driving biogeochemical cycles of the Earth system. As drought frequency and intensity increase due to climate change, soil microbes and the processes they control will be impacted. Even after a drought ends, microbiomes and other systems take time to recover and may display a memory of previous climate conditions. Still, the mechanisms involved in these legacy effects remain unclear, making it difficult to predict climate and biogeochemical rates in the future. Here, we used a trait‐based microbiome model (DEMENTpy) to implement trade‐off‐mediated mechanisms that may lead to drought legacy effects on litter decomposition. Trade‐offs were assumed to follow the Y‐A‐S framework that defines three primary life‐history strategies of microorganisms: high growth Yield, resource Acquisition, and Stress tolerance. We represented cellular trade‐offs between osmolytes required for drought tolerance and investment in enzymes involved in litter decomposition. Simulations were run under varying levels of drought severity and dispersal. With high levels of dispersal, no legacy effects were predicted by DEMENTpy following drought. With limited dispersal, severe drought resulted in a persistent legacy of altered community‐level traits and reduced litter decomposition. Moderate drought resulted in a transient legacy that disappeared after two years, consistent with recent empirical observations in Southern California ecosystems. These results imply that greater movement along the trade‐off between enzyme investment and osmolyte production resulted in stronger legacy effects. More generally, factors that shift the position of a microbiome in YAS space may alter the legacy outcome following drought. Our trait‐based modeling study motivates additional empirical measurements to quantify YAS traits and trade‐offs that are needed to make accurate predictions of soil microbiome resilience and functioning. Also, our study illustrates an emerging approach for representing trait trade‐offs in microbiomes and vegetation that dictate ecosystem responses to drought and other environmental perturbations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The fate of carbon utilized by the subterranean termite Reticulitermes flavipes

Abstract Subterranean termites are ecosystem engineers that modulate the flow of carbon from dead wood to the atmosphere and soil, yet their contributions to the latter pool are largely unaccounted for in carbon cycling models. The fate of C from wood utilized by Reticulitermes flavipes (Kollar) was determined using a reductionist design in a closed system with δ 13 C labeled wood as a stable isotope tracer. The percentage of wood‐based carbon in termite respiratory gases, tissues, and organic deposits (frass and construction materials) was measured for five colonies to budget wood‐C mass distributed into metabolic and behavioral pathways during a 160‐h incubation period. We found that termites emitted 42% of the C from wood as gas (largely as carbon dioxide), returned 40% to the environment as organic deposits (frass and construction materials), and retained 18% in their tissues (whole alimentary tracts and de‐gutted bodies). Our findings affirm that termites are a source of greenhouse gases but are also ecosystem engineers that return approximately half the C from dead wood as organic deposits into their surrounding environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring the Role of Cryptic Nitrogen Fixers in Terrestrial Ecosystems: A Frontier in Nitrogen Cycling Research

Biological nitrogen fixation represents the largest natural flux of new nitrogen (N) into terrestrial ecosystems, providing a critical N source to support net primary productivity of both natural and agricultural systems. When they are common, symbiotic associations between plants and bacteria can add more than 100 kg N ha –1 y –1 to ecosystems. Yet, these associations are uncommon in many terrestrial ecosystems. In most cases, N inputs derive from more cryptic sources, including mutualistic and/or free-living microorganisms in soil, plant litter, decomposing roots and wood, lichens, insects, and mosses, among others. Unfortunately, large gaps remain in the understanding of cryptic N fixation. Here, we conducted a literature review to explore rates, patterns, and controls of cryptic N fixation in both unmanaged and agricultural ecosystems. Our analysis indicates that, as is common with N fixation, rates are highly variable across most cryptic niches, with N inputs in any particular cryptic niche ranging from near zero to more than 20 kg ha –1 y –1 . Such large variation underscores the need for more comprehensive measurements of N fixation by organisms not in symbiotic relationships with vascular plants in terrestrial ecosystems, as well as identifying the factors that govern cryptic N fixation rates. We highlight several challenges, opportunities, and priorities in this important research area, and we propose a conceptual model that posits an interacting hierarchy of biophysical and biogeochemical controls over N fixation that should generate valuable new hypotheses and research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the use of air temperature and precipitation as surrogate predictors in soil respiration modelling

Soil respiration (R S ), the soil-to-atmosphere CO 2 flux that is a major component of the global carbon cycle, is strongly influenced by local soil temperature (T soil ) and water content (SWC). Regional to global-scale R S modelling thus requires this information at local scales, but few high-quality, wall-to-wall (global) T soil and SWC data exist. As a result, such modelling efforts commonly use air temperature (T air ) and monthly precipitation (P m ) as surrogate predictors, but their site-scale accuracy and potential bias are unknown. In this report we used monthly data from 880 sites across a wide variety of different environmental conditions (i.e., climate, ecosystem type, elevation, vegetation leaf habit and drainage conditions) to determine the suitability of T air as a surrogate for T soil , and data from 507 sites to examine the suitability of P m as a surrogate for SWC. Site-specific linear and second-order exponential non-linear models were compared using model evaluation metrics (i.e., slope, p-value of slope, root mean square error [RMSE], index of agreement and model efficiency). We found that T soil and T air are highly correlated and explain similar R S variability. In contrast, P m is not a good surrogate for SWC, even though P m explains a similar amount of R S variability to SWC. The wide variability in the site-specific relationships between R S and SWC means that no single relationship can be used for large-scale modelling. The results from this study support the use of T air in continental-to-global scale R S models, and highlight the urgent need for continental-to-global scale SWC datasets for the modelling and evaluation of future soil carbon dynamics under global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A mapped dataset of surface ocean acidification indicators in large marine ecosystems of the United States

Mapped monthly data products of surface ocean acidification indicators from 1998 to 2022 on a 0.25° by 0.25° spatial grid have been developed for eleven U.S. large marine ecosystems (LMEs). The data products were constructed using observations from the Surface Ocean CO 2 Atlas, co-located surface ocean properties, and two types of machine learning algorithms: Gaussian mixture models to organize LMEs into clusters of similar environmental variability and random forest regressions (RFRs) that were trained and applied within each cluster to spatiotemporally interpolate the observational data. The data products, called RFR-LMEs, have been averaged into regional timeseries to summarize the status of ocean acidification in U.S. coastal waters, showing a domain-wide carbon dioxide partial pressure increase of 1.4 ± 0.4 μatm yr -1 and pH decrease of 0.0014 ± 0.0004 yr -1 . RFR-LMEs have been evaluated via comparisons to discrete shipboard data, fixed timeseries, and other mapped surface ocean carbon chemistry data products. Regionally averaged timeseries of RFR-LME indicators are provided online through the NOAA National Marine Ecosystem Status web portal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Challenges in studying water fluxes within the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum: A tracer-based perspective on pathways to progress

Tracing and quantifying water fluxes in the hydrological cycle is crucial for understanding the current state of ecohydrological systems and their vulnerability to environmental change. Especially the interface between ecosystems and the atmosphere that is strongly mediated by plants is important to meaningfully describe ecohydrological system functioning. Many of the dynamic interactions generated by water fluxes between soil, plant and the atmosphere are not well understood, which is partly due to a lack of interdisciplinary research. This opinion paper reflects the outcome of a discussion among hydrologists, plant ecophysiologists and soil scientists on open questions and new opportunities for collaborative research on the topic "water fluxes in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum" especially focusing on environmental and artificial tracers. We emphasize the need for a multi-scale experimental approach, where a hypothesis is tested at multiple spatial scales and under diverse environmental conditions to better describe the small-scale processes (i.e., causes) that lead to large-scale patterns of ecosystem functioning (i.e., consequences). Novel in-situ, high-frequency measurement techniques offer the opportunity to sample data at a high spatial and temporal resolution needed to understand the underlying processes. Here we advocate for a combination of long-term natural abundance measurements and event-based approaches. Multiple environmental and artificial tracers, such as stable isotopes, and a suite of experimental and analytical approaches should be combined to complement information gained by different methods. Virtual experiments using process-based models should be used to inform sampling campaigns and field experiments, e.g., to improve experimental designs and to simulate experimental outcomes. On the other hand, experimental data are a pre-requisite to improve our currently incomplete models. Interdisciplinary collaboration will help to overcome research gaps that overlap across different earth system science fields and help to generate a more holistic view of water fluxes between soil, plant and atmosphere in diverse ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the impact of climate change on erosion - 20397

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351-ha (3,338-ac) site located approximately 48 km (30 mi) south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into Agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States. NFS, a private company, built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg (metric tons, or 705 short tons) of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations ended in 1972 and never reopened, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. Erosion can play an important role in the fate and transport of waste at sites where disposal of long-lived waste is anticipated. The statistical characterization of key processes related to erosion is essential to the understanding of site stability through time. One of the key processes governing erosion is extreme precipitation and it is critical that trends in the distribution of extreme precipitation events through time be represented. The evidence of climate change is increasingly well documented and projected impacts on extreme precipitation events should be incorporated in performance assessment studies when relevant. Not evaluating future climate states in a performance assessment is contradictory to good modeling practice. Specifically, excluding climate change limits development of modeling information that could aid in effective decision making. The current climate literature provides both observational evidence and climate model projections of climate trends and/or climate change in the late 20. and early 21. centuries for North America and the northeast United States. In this work, this information was used to assess the impacts of potential changes in climate on erosion processes. The goal was to understand how projections of future climate relate to the performance of the WNYNSC through time. In the first stage of this work multi-temporal historical aerial images were analyzed in conjunction with orthophotography and Lidar data to develop probability distributions for variables representing important erosion processes. The information from these analyses was then used in conjunction with simulated data from the West Valley Erosion Working Group (EWG). Analysis of EWG simulations provides estimates for the change in erosion rates through time that is driven by changes in climate. The time-varying rates of erosion change were applied to the historical aerial imagery data in order to inform time-varying rates of erosion that are driven by changes in climate. Ultimately, this process resulted in the identification of locations for features like gully heads using both the Lidar dataset and projection of the estimated location from the historical aerial photo under consideration back to the Lidar dataset. The distance between the estimate of the location from the historical image and that of the Lidar dataset was the estimated distance the feature has moved. This distance was then divided by the number of years between the Lidar dataset and the year of the historical aerial image of interest to get a rate of movement through time. This was done for several dozen points on each historical aerial image. The analyses from the EWG were used to characterize the relative impact of climate change on the erosion rates. This relative impact was quantified by comparing the LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using historical climate data with LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using projections of future climate. The relative increase in the erosion rates was then applied to the historical estimates of erosion derived from the analysis of the historical aerial imagery. This approach was used since the LEM-based estimated of the historical erosion rates from the past century have a bias towards underestimating erosion. This underestimation is hypothesized to be a consequence of an inability of the LEMs to account for the impacts of land-use change (i.e. deforestation) which had been shown to significantly increase erosion in similar Northern hardwood forest ecosystems. In summary, gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate were characterized using statistical probability distributions from the historical aerial image analysis. Simulated data from the EWG was used to estimate the climatically-driven changes in erosion rates through time. The changes through time from the EWG were applied to the gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate characterized using the historical aerial image analysis. This information can be used to inform PPA models to project future risks from a given site. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Solar+ Optimizer: A Model Predictive Control Optimization Platform for Grid Responsive Building Microgrids

With the falling costs of solar arrays and battery storage and reduced reliability of the grid due to natural disasters, small-scale local generation and storage resources are beginning to proliferate. However, very few software options exist for integrated control of building loads, batteries and other distributed energy resources. The available software solutions on the market can force customers to adopt one particular ecosystem of products, thus limiting consumer choice, and are often incapable of operating independently of the grid during blackouts. In this paper, we present the “Solar+ Optimizer” (SPO), a control platform that provides demand flexibility, resiliency and reduced utility bills, built using open-source software. SPO employs Model Predictive Control (MPC) to produce real time optimal control strategies for the building loads and the distributed energy resources on site. SPO is designed to be vendor-agnostic, protocol-independent and resilient to loss of wide-area network connectivity. The software was evaluated in a real convenience store in northern California with on-site solar generation, battery storage and control of HVAC and commercial refrigeration loads. Preliminary tests showed price responsiveness of the building and cost savings of more than 10% in energy costs alone.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Next generation Arctic vegetation maps: Aboveground plant biomass and woody dominance mapped at 30 m resolution across the tundra biome

The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, placing tundra ecosystems at the forefront of global climate change. Plant biomass is a fundamental ecosystem attribute that is sensitive to changes in climate, closely tied to ecological function, and crucial for constraining ecosystem carbon dynamics. However, the amount, functional composition, and distribution of plant biomass are only coarsely quantified across the Arctic. Therefore, we developed the first moderate resolution (30 m) maps of live aboveground plant biomass (g m −2 ) and woody plant dominance (%) for the Arctic tundra biome, including the mountainous Oro Arctic. We modeled biomass for the year 2020 using a new synthesis dataset of field biomass harvest measurements, Landsat satellite seasonal synthetic composites, ancillary geospatial data, and machine learning models. Additionally, we quantified pixel-wise uncertainty in biomass predictions using Monte Carlo simulations and validated the models using a robust, spatially blocked and nested cross-validation procedure. Observed plant and woody plant biomass values ranged from 0 to ∼6000 g m −2 (mean ≈ 350 g m −2 ), while predicted values ranged from 0 to ∼4000 g m −2 (mean ≈ 275 g m −2 ), resulting in model validation root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) ≈ 400 g m −2 and R 2 ≈ 0.6. Our maps not only capture large-scale patterns of plant biomass and woody plant dominance across the Arctic that are linked to climatic variation (e.g., thawing degree days), but also illustrate how fine-scale patterns are shaped by local surface hydrology, topography, and past disturbance. By providing data on plant biomass across Arctic tundra ecosystems at the highest resolution to date, our maps can significantly advance research and inform decision-making on topics ranging from Arctic vegetation monitoring and wildlife conservation to carbon accounting and land surface modeling.

Climate change↗

Improving CLM5.0 Biomass and Carbon Exchange Across the Western United States Using a Data Assimilation System

The Western United States is dominated by natural lands that play a critical role for carbon balance, water quality, and timber reserves. This region is also particularly vulnerable to forest mortality from drought, insect attack, and wildfires, thus requiring constant monitoring to assess ecosystem health. Carbon monitoring techniques are challenged by the complex mountainous terrain, thus there is an opportunity for data assimilation systems that combine land surface models and satellite-derived observations to provide improved carbon monitoring. Here, we use the Data Assimilation Research Testbed to adjust the Community Land Model (CLM5.0) with remotely sensed observations of leaf area and above-ground biomass. The adjusted simulation significantly reduced the above-ground biomass and leaf area, leading to a reduction in both photosynthesis and respiration fluxes. The reduction in the carbon fluxes mostly offset, thus both the adjusted and free simulation projected a weak carbon sink to the land. This result differed from a separate observation-constrained model (FLUXCOM) that projected strong carbon uptake to the land. Simulation diagnostics suggested water limitation had an important influence upon the magnitude and spatial pattern of carbon uptake through photosynthesis. We recommend that additional observations important for water cycling (e.g., snow water equivalent, land surface temperature) be included to improve the veracity of the spatial pattern in carbon uptake. Furthermore, the assimilation system should be enhanced to maximize the number of the simulated state variables that are adjusted, especially those related to the recommended observed quantities including water cycling and soil carbon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗