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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

Shadow of the Future: Developing Trust and Software within the Exascale Computing Project

Collaboration and team science are emerging areas of interest in software production. Historically, multi-institutional research collaborations are difficult to initiate and maintain, negatively impacting communication, negotiation, and dialogue between industry, government, and academic researchers. The Exascale Computing Project (ECP), a massive, multi-team, high-stakes initiative, facilitated broader research collaboration under a shared funding structure and extended timeline to support scientific discovery. Here, we conducted interviews with ECP teams, representing a variety of domain specialties, research institutions, and programming backgrounds. Using thematic analysis, we assessed how ECP’s structure created an environment of increased trust among projects and how software shared between teams facilitated sustained collaboration. We found that the expectation of future collaboration, i.e., the shadow of the future, greatly enhanced trust among teams and the quality of scientific software produced. Based on our findings within ECP projects, we connect to the existing literature on trust in software engineering and share recommendations for sustainable multi-institutional collaboration and shared best software practices.

Exascale computing project↗

Concurrent measurement of strain and chemical reaction rates in a calcite grain pack undergoing pressure solution: Evidence for surface-reaction controlled dissolution

Pressure solution is inferred to be a significant contributor to sediment compaction and lithification, especially in carbonate sediments. For a sediment deforming primarily by pressure solution, the compaction rate should be directly related to the rate of calcite dissolution, transport along grain contacts, and calcite reprecipitation. Previous experimental work has shown that there is evidence that deformation in wet calcite grain packs is consistent with control by pressure solution, but considerable ambiguity remains regarding the rate limiting mechanism. We present the results of laboratory compaction experiments designed to directly measure calcite dissolution and precipitation rates (recrystallization rates) concurrently with strain rate to test whether measured rates are consistent with predicted rates both in absolute magnitude and time evolution. Recrystallization rates are measured using trace element chemistry (Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca) and isotopes (87Sr/86Sr) of fluids flowing slowly through a compacting grain pack as it is being triaxially compressed. Imaging techniques are used to characterize the grain contacts and strain effects in the post-experiment grain pack. Our data show that calcite recrystallization rates calculated from all three geochemical parameters are in approximate agreement and that the rates closely track strain rate. The geochemically inferred rates are close to predicted rates in absolute magnitude. Uncertainty in grain contact dimensions makes distinguishing between surface reaction control and diffusion control difficult. Measured reaction rates decrease faster than predicted from standard pressure solution creep flow laws. This inconsistency may indicate that calcite dissolution rates at grain contacts are more complex, and more time-dependent, than suggested by geometric models designed to predict grain contact stresses.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Comparison of the earliest NC and CC planetesimals: Evidence from ungrouped iron meteorites

Isotope anomalies in meteorites reveal a fundamental dichotomy between Non-Carbonaceous- (NC) and Carbonaceous-type (CC) planetary bodies. Until now, this dichotomy is established for the major meteorite groups, representing about 36 distinct parent bodies. Ungrouped meteorites represent an even larger number of additional parent bodies, but whether they conform to the overall NC-CC dichotomy is unknown. Here, the genetics and chronology of 26 ungrouped iron meteorites are considered through nucleosynthetic Mo and radiogenic W isotopic compositions. Secondary cosmic ray-induced modifications of these isotope compositions are corrected using Pt isotope measurements on the same samples. We find that all of the ungrouped irons have Mo isotope anomalies within the range of the major meteorite groups and confirm the NC-CC dichotomy for Mo, where NC and CC meteorites define two distinct, subparallel s-process mixing lines. All ungrouped NC irons fall on the NC-line, which is now precisely defined for 41 distinct parent bodies. The ungrouped CC irons show scatter around the CC-line indicative of small r-process Mo heterogeneities among these samples. These r-process Mo isotope variations correlate with O isotope anomalies, most likely reflecting mixing of CI chondrite-like matrix, chondrule precursors, and Ca-Al-rich inclusions. This implies that CC iron meteorite parent bodies accreted the same nebular components as the later-formed carbonaceous chondrites. The Hf-W model ages of core formation for the ungrouped irons overlap with those of the iron meteorite groups from each reservoir and reveal a narrow age peak at ∼3.3 Ma after Ca-Al-rich inclusions for the CC irons. By contrast, the NC irons display more variable ages, including younger ages indicative of impact-induced melting events, which seem absent among the CC irons. This is attributed to the more fragile and porous nature of the CC bodies, making impact-induced melting on their surfaces difficult. The chemical characteristics of all iron meteorites together reveal slightly more oxidizing conditions during core formation for CC compared to NC irons. More strikingly, strong depletions in moderately volatile elements, typical of many iron meteorite parent bodies, predominantly occur among CC irons, for reasons that remain unclear at present.

Chondrite components↗

Temporal relationships among lunar crustal rocks

Temporal relationships among the three most common suites of lunar crustal rocks have been investigated by obtaining new high precision ages on Felsic/Alkali-suite Quartz monzodiorite Clast B from breccia 15405 and Magnesian-suite norite 78235/6/8/55/56 and comparing them to previously dated ferroan anorthosite sample 60025. The weighted average age of 4337.19 ± 0.49 Ma of 15405 Clast B is defined by zircon U-Pb and Pb-Pb ages as well as mineral isochron Sm-Nd and Nd-Nd ages. It is identical to the weighted average age for Apollo 17 norite 78235/6/8/55/56 of 4334.1 ± 3.5 Ma which is defined by Pb-Pb ages measured on baddeleyites in this investigation and less precise Pb-Pb and Sm-Nd ages reported in the literature. Both ages are ∼ 25 Ma younger than the weighted average of Sm-Nd and Pb-Pb ages reported in the literature on ferroan anorthosite 60025 of 4359.3 ± 2.3 Ma. The fact that ages of all three samples are defined by multiple U-Pb, Pb-Pb, Sm-Nd, and 142 Nd- 143 Nd chronometers provide confidence that they record the igneous crystallization history of the samples and do not represent disturbances or mixing lines with no temporal significance. Here, the extent to which these three ages represent broader scale magmatism is difficult to evaluate. Nevertheless, the age defined for 15405 Clast B, 78235/6/8/55/56, and 60025 are contemporaneous with the peak of ages observed in detrital zircons from the Apollo 12, 14, 15, and 17 landing sites (4340 ± 20 Ma), a Mg-suite Sm-Nd whole rock isochron defined by samples from Apollo 14, 15, 16, and 17 landing sites (4348 ± 25 Ma), and a Ferroan Anorthosite-suite Sm-Nd whole rock isochron defined by samples from the Apollo 15 and 16 landing sites (4354 ± 29 Ma). This implies that Ferroan Anorthosite-suite magmatism is temporally distinct and earlier than magmatism associated with the Mg-suite and the Felsic/Alkali-suite, as predicted by the lunar magma ocean model of lunar differentiation. The short 35 ± 10 Ma interval between primary ferroan anorthosite magmatism and secondary magmatism suggests that the lunar crust formed over a limited period of time. Although heat from decay of long-lived isotopes, large impacts, tidal heating associated with interactions between the Earth and Moon, and density driven overturn of the magma ocean have all been invoked to explain production of ancient secondary crustal magmatism, only tidal heating and cumulate overturn are consistent with the apparent short duration of secondary crustal magmatism and the great depth of crystallization implied for some Mg-suite samples. The initial ε 143 Nd values derived from the 15405 Clast B and 78238 Mg-suite norite isochrons, as well as a Mg-suite whole rock isochron are −0.23 ± 0.11, −0.27 ± 0.74, and −0.25 ± 0.09, respectively. They are identical within uncertainty indicating that Mg-suite and Felsic/Alkali-suite magmas were derived from materials that had the same time averaged Sm/Nd ratios since the formation of the solar system. This, combined with the contemporaneous nature of 15405 Clast B and 78235/6/8/55/56 Mg-suite norite, is consistent with evolution of both samples, and likely both magma suites, from a common source through closed system fractional crystallization or partial melting processes.

Chronology↗

Sustainable aviation fuels from biomass and biowaste via bio- and chemo-catalytic conversion: Catalysis, process challenges, and opportunities

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production from biomass and biowaste streams is an attractive option for decarbonizing the aviation sector, one of the most-difficult-to-electrify transportation sectors. Despite ongoing commercialization efforts using ASTM-certified pathways (e.g., lipid conversion, Fischer-Tropsch synthesis), production capacities are still inadequate due to limited feedstock supply and high production costs. New conversion technologies that utilize lignocellulosic feedstocks are needed to meet these challenges and satisfy the rapidly growing market. Combining bio- and chemo-catalytic approaches can leverage advantages from both methods, i.e., high product selectivity via biological conversion, and the capability to build C-C chains more efficiently via chemical catalysis. Herein, conversion routes, catalysis, and processes for such pathways are discussed, while key challenges and meaningful R&D opportunities are identified to guide future research activities in the space. Bio and chemo-catalytic conversion primarily utilize the carbohydrate fraction of lignocellulose, leaving lignin as a waste product. This makes lignin conversion to SAF critical in order to utilize whole biomass, thereby lowering overall production costs while maximizing carbon efficiencies. Thus, lignin valorization strategies are also reviewed herein with vital research areas identified, such as facile lignin depolymerization approaches, highly integrated conversion systems, novel process configurations, and catalysts for the selective cleavage of aryl C–O bonds. The potential efficiency improvements available via integrated conversion steps, such as combined biological and chemo-catalytic routes, along with the use of different parallel pathways, are identified as key to producing all components of a cost-effective, 100% SAF.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The role of Ca-bridged organic matter in an alkaline soil, as revealed by multimodal chemical imaging

Mineral–organic matter (OM) studies have predominantly focused on acidic soils that are abundant in iron (Fe) oxides and aluminum (Al) oxides. We have probed mineral–OM interactions in an alkaline or calcareous soil of the Aridisols class. Unlike the role of Fe and Al, the role of Ca-minerals (particularly calcite), which are ubiquitous in alkaline soils, in OM sequestration is not well understood. Multiple recent model studies with aqueous Ca2+ or synthetic calcite and a suite of OM compounds have shown Ca-OM assemblages to be spatially correlated with calcite at the microscale. To study the chemical state of both Ca and Fe and their competing role in soil organic matter (SOM) stabilization, we performed laboratory characterization using x-ray diffraction, Mössbauer spectroscopy, x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy, and scanning transmission electron microscopy, alongside synchrotron-based microscale chemical imaging using scanning transmission x-ray microscopy combined with near-edge x-ray absorption fine structure. Ca mineral–organic associations were found to be ubiquitous in this system and are likely critical for understanding SOM stabilization/degradation in alkaline soils. From our findings on mineralogy, speciation, and the nature of Ca-OM bridging, we identified differences in C and Ca chemistry based on the relative location of OM to Ca minerals. The OM near the calcite crystal was enriched in lipid and protein moieties, Ca-OM next to Fe minerals displayed a strong contribution from aromatic compounds, while on the surface of microbes, the carbonate was believed to be of microbial in origin, as also suggested by preliminary works reporting on the formation of amorphous calcite or nano-calcite. In Ca-OM admixed with carbonate, it was difficult to distinguish Ca-associated OM from amorphous calcite or nano-calcite.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Interpreting the spatial distribution of soil properties with a physically-based distributed hydrological model

Digital soil maps are commonly data-driven as the development of physically-based models for soil mapping is difficult due to the complexity of soils. However, physically-based hydrologic models have been successful in simulating water dynamics. Since water movement is a major driver of pedogenesis, the physical rules that govern water movement might help explain and predict the spatial variation of soil properties. Here, we demonstrate the novel use of a physically-based, distributed hydrologic model to inform the spatial distribution of soil properties. The Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) was utilized to simulate soil moisture content (SM) and water table depth (WTD) in two hillslope catchments under pasture and forest management wherein hydrologic model outputs were then compared with soil properties measured in situ. SM sensors and wells were installed in both catchments to validate simulations of soil water movement via Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (E). In-situ observations were made at 87 sites within both catchments to study the connection between simulated water movement (SM and WTD) and observed soil properties, namely the depth and thickness of the argillic (Bt), fragic (Btx), and C horizons, and the depth of redoximorphic features. The simulated time series of SM and WTD were also clustered per season using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), which identified similarity among time series at varying timescales. Model validation suggested that simulations of surficial SM (0–20 cm) were reasonable (E = 0.45), however, simulated subsurface SM (45–60 cm) and WTD were not sufficiently accurate. The thickness of Btx horizons were spatially grouped into different populations by SM clusters from every season except spring. For the other properties, only SM dynamics of specific seasons grouped into significantly different populations, suggesting that the explanatory power of simulated water movement varies seasonally and was greater during winter. Here, we show clusters of simulated SM separated soil properties into statistically different populations, showing that hydrologic models could inform areas that followed different water dynamics related to pedogenic trajectories and related biogeochemical processes not necessarily simulated by the model. As such, physically-based modeling of water dynamics can, therefore, inform and advance digital soil mapping by linking water movement patterns stemming from hydrologic model outputs to spatial patterns of soil properties and pedogenesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Relative permeabilities for two-phase flow through wellbore cement fractures

Multiple fluids are likely to exist in fractures and flow paths associated with leaky wellbores, including liquids (e.g., crude oil) and gases (e.g., gas exsolved from liquid). These fluids occupy and move through different portions of the pore spaces within the fractures depending on many factors, including fluid properties, fracture size, and the amount of the different fluids. Upward leakage of any phase, through the fracture, can contaminate water-bearing formations, create hazardous surface conditions, and compromise the functionality of the wellbore. Early signs of wellbore leaks may be expressed by anomalous pressure behavior at surface monitoring points on cavern storage wells. These pressure anomalies are difficult to interpret, necessitating knowledge of the factors that affect the multiphase flow in fractures and porous media. These parameters are critical to modeling multiphase flow in fractures. This insight can guide further diagnosis and maximize leak remediation. Here, our study focuses on the relationship of the liquid–gas relative permeabilities for representative variable-aperture wellbore cement fracture. To obtain the relative permeability of each phase, two-phase flow tests were conducted where both fluids were flowing simultaneously through a fractured wellbore cement specimen under a range of factors, namely (1) aperture size, (2) capillary numbers, and (3) viscosity ratio. The flow experiments were conducted under a range of confining stresses and flow velocities, using nitrogen gas and silicone oils (of different viscosities) in a specially designed pressure vessel. The sum of gas and oil relative permeabilities were found to be less than one under all conditions, which indicates that the presence of one phase affects the permeability of the other phase, and vice versa. Since the gas phase flow conditions include a significant inertial flow component in addition to viscous flow, the inertial flow coefficients at different saturation states are presented. The factors affecting the relationship between the relative permeabilities are discussed in detail. A new mathematical model for estimating the relative permeability of wellbore cement fracture is presented and experimentally validated.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A multiscale recurrent neural network model for predicting energy production from geothermal reservoirs

Optimization of energy production from geothermal reservoirs requires reliable prediction of energy production performance under alternative operation and development scenarios. Traditionally, reservoir simulation models are used for the evaluation and screening of alternative production and development plans. However, simulation models require extensive data collection and modeling efforts and are time-consuming to build, run, and update. Data-driven predictive models, on the other hand, can serve as efficient prediction tools that can be used for decision support and management of daily operations and surveillance activities. Data-driven models become particularly attractive when a reservoir simulation model for a field does not exist and/or is difficult to build. Machine learning (ML)-based data-driven models that have recently become popular in several fields exploit statistical patterns and relations in training data to generate predictions. As such, they tend to perform better in interpolation problems (that is, prediction within the training data range) than when they are used to extrapolate beyond the training data. Production data from geothermal reservoirs tend to exhibit short-term variabilities as well as long-term trends, such as monotonically declining production temperatures. Capturing both short-term features and long-term trends with ML-based models is not trivial. We evaluate the use of recurrent neural networks (RNN) for the prediction of energy production from geothermal reservoirs. RNN is a class of ML architectures that are used to represent and predict sequential/dynamic data. Thus, it can be challenging to apply RNN to problems where long-term trends must be captured and extrapolation beyond the training data range is needed. We introduce the multiscale RNN architecture to extend the application of RNN to detect and predict both short-term variabilities and long-term trends in geothermal data. The developed architecture consists of a long-term component to only capture low-frequency data patterns, and a short-term component to detect features with higher frequency and more nonlinearity. The final prediction is obtained by combining the long-term and short-term predictions. Both synthetic and field data are used to evaluate the presented multiscale RNN model. The prediction performance of the multiscale RNN is compared against those obtained from the regular RNN and the autoregressive (AR) model. The results suggest that the multiscale architecture improves the long-term prediction performance of the regular RNN and enhances its robustness against noise.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Effect of initial water saturation on the performance of fracturing fluids with and without polyallylamine under simulated EGS conditions

Objectives/Scope: StimuFrac (US Patents 9,873,828 B2 and 9,447,315 B2), a CO 2 - reactive polymer aqueous solution [polyallylamine (PAA) 1wt% in water] combined with CO 2 , can be used as a potentially less water-intensive fracturing fluid for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Our previous results show that in hot dry rock (HDR), PAA/CO 2 fracturing fluids outperformed other fluids such as water, CO 2 , and CO 2 /water in generating large fractures with less fluid consumed. The objective of this work is to investigate the effect of initial water saturation on the performance of StimuFrac by conducting hydraulic fracturing tests with ½ foot cubic rock samples held under representative EGS stress/temperature conditions and by using cyclic injection strategies (under constant injection rate). The resulting fracture hydraulic conductivities, breakdown pressures, and volumes of fluids required are compared. Methods/Procedures/Process: To simulate geothermal reservoir conditions, in all tests, the rock sample was held under triaxial confinement and at 200 °C, and different volumes of water were initially injected into the rock sample before any fracturing processes were initiated. For the single-cycle PAA (or water) alternating CO 2 (PAG or WAG) injection fracturing experiments, one complete cycle consisted of two steps: (1) injecting a PAA slug (or water slug) followed by (2) injecting CO 2 to initiate and propagate the fracture. For experiments involving multiple injection cycles, the CO 2 injection pressure is increased until it peaks and begins to decline (indicating fracture initiation at this moment), and then continued being injected for another 30 seconds to propagate the fracture. Then, these two-step cycles [injection of PAA (or water) followed by CO 2 injection (up to 2-4 mL/min)] are repeated. Applications/Significance/Novelty: The results of this study suggest that water saturation significantly affects the fracturing fluid transmission into the rock pore space, thus affecting the fracture initiation and propagation. In this study, fracturing tests via a single injection cycle or multiple injection cycles were performed. Splitting the rock samples in half after testing reveals that fracture propagation is significantly limited under high water saturation conditions (three-day initial water injection) compared to stimulation experiments performed in hot dry rock. The fractures propagate less than 1/3 of the distance from the wellbore to the outer rock surface, and in some cases, no fracture is generated. This may be caused by leak-off dominating the fracturing process and the fluid injection rate is insufficient to overcome leak-off, even under high injection rate conditions. Additionally, CO 2 could be leaking off into the wellbore annulus and this may be making it more difficult to generate sufficiently high-pressure gradients away from the near-wellbore region. Under low water saturation conditions (dry rock or after 1-day initial water injection), PAA/CO 2 consistently generated significantly larger fractures compared with the other fluids. CO 2 generated large fractures only in the hot dry rock and only when using high injection rates, though data variability is high.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A temperature profile diagnostic for radiation waves on OMEGA-60

Predicting and matching radiation wave propagation with computational models has proven difficult. Information provided by experiments studying radiation flow has been limited when only radiation breakout is measured. We have developed the COAX (co-axial) diagnostic platform to provide spatial temperature profiles of a radiation wave through low density foams as a more detailed constraint for simulations. COAX uses a standard, laser-driven OMEGA-60 halfraum to drive radiation down a titanium-laden silicon oxide foam. Point-projection X-ray absorption spectroscopy perpendicular to the radiation flow measures the spatial profile of titanium ionization. The spectroscopic measurement utilizes a broadband capsule backlighter. Imaging and streak spectroscopy are used to characterize the size and spectrum of this source. Radiography provides an additional constraint by capturing the developing shock as the radiation flow becomes subsonic. The DANTE diagnostic is used to measure the halfraum temperature. Here, we provide a spectroscopic analysis of COAX data to determine temperature, and we describe experimental sources of uncertainty. The temperature is obtained by comparison to multi-temperature synthetic spectra post-processed from radiation-hydrodynamics simulations. Quantitative comparison between data and synthetic spectra generated from temperature profiles at relevant simulation times enable determination of a peak temperature of 114 ± 8 eV at 265 ± 22.4 μm from the halfraum. This represents an improvement over the temperature uncertainties of previous radiation flow experiments. Further refinements to the spectroscopic analysis could achieve ±4 eV. The combination between space-resolved spectroscopy and radiography enables us to determine the distance from the halfraum of both the radiation front and the shock front at the time of measurement. For the example shown in this paper the radiation front position is 600–630 μm at 3.43 ± 0.16 ns and the shock front position is 633 μm at 3.3 ± 0.24 ns.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Shock wave formation in the thermosphere by an earthgrazing fireball: Empirical evidence for volatile-enhanced hydrodynamic shielding

Hydrodynamic shielding is a theoretically well-established but observationally elusive and experimentally difficult-to-replicate phenomenon with implications that extend far beyond meteor physics. Rare earthgrazing meteoroids with infrasound signatures that penetrate to the ground can be used to probe hydrodynamic shielding that leads to strong shock formation at high altitude. Here, we report the first coordinated optical and multi-station infrasound observations of a centimeter-scale earthgrazing fireball that generated sustained cylindrical line shock at thermospheric altitudes near 92 km. The event was recorded by numerous optical stations and three infrasound arrays, allowing trajectory reconstruction, ablation behavior, acoustic source localization, and shock characteristics. Optical observations indicate early mechanical erosion and ablation/evaporation at exceptionally low dynamic pressure, consistent with a cometary or a porous, volatile-bearing CM chondritic object. Independent infrasound detections localize shock generation to multiple points along a 164 km trajectory segment near perigee. Weak-shock modeling yields a consistent blast radius of ∼30 m, implying an acoustic-equivalent source size far exceeding the physical dimensions of the ∼45 g nucleus. We demonstrate that classical gas dynamics and ablation-driven hydrodynamic shielding alone cannot account for these observations under ambient thermospheric conditions. We show that volatile release provides the additional flow-field density enhancement required to amplify hydrodynamic shielding, reduce the effective local Knudsen number, and sustain a shock envelope capable of radiating detectable infrasound. Furthermore, these results demonstrate that small, volatile-rich meteoroids can transiently establish continuum-like flow in rarefied environments.

Astrometry↗

Low-cost fin-tube heat exchanger design for building thermal energy storage using phase change material

Heat transfer in phase change materials (PCMs) is complex because the melting and freezing fronts change as functions of stored or released heat. In prior attempts to optimize heat exchangers (HXs) in one or two dimensions, complex geometry has often been used to maximize the melt and freeze front area. This complex geometry is difficult and hence expensive to construct. This paper proposes a multiple-scale 3D finite element modeling approach to design fin-tube HXs for low-cost latent thermal energy storage applications. Further, the optimal fin and tube designs were determined at three scales (unit-scale, medium-scale, and large-scale) by modeling the melt and freeze front in three dimensions and using measured bulk thermal properties. The finite element model was validated by comparing it with the experimental data for a referenced design of a similar type. The results indicate that commercially available organic PCMs with low conductivity (<0.3 W/m·K) can have charge and discharge times appropriate for building thermal energy storage (i.e., 4–5 h) with fin-tube HX designs at costs <$26/kWh, even when the temperature difference (5.56°C) between the heat transfer fluid and the PCM phase change temperature is small. However, as the HX increases in length, the temperature reduction along the tube limits some larger-scale designs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Probability Density Function Control for Stochastic Nonlinear Systems using Monte Carlo Simulation

This paper presents a fast implementation framework of output probability density function (PDF) control for a class of stochastic nonlinear systems which are subjected to non-Gaussian noises. The statistical properties of the system outputs can be adjusted by shaping the dynamic output probability density function to track the reference stochastic distribution. However, the dynamic probability density function evolution is very difficult to obtain analytically even if the system model and the stochastic distributions of the noises are known. Motivated by Monte Carlo simulation, the dynamic probability density function can be estimated by sampling data which forms the contribution of this paper. In particular, the sampling points are generated following the stochastic distribution of the noise for each instant. These points go through the system would generate the histogram for system outputs, then the dynamic model can be established based on the dynamic histogram which reflects the randomness and the nonlinear dynamics of the investigated system. Based on the established model, the output probability density function tracking can be achieved and the simulation results and discussions show the effectiveness and benefits of the presented framework.

Zhang, Qichun↗

Land-use analysis using infrastructure representations and high-resolution flood inundation mapping techniques

In the face of climate change and population growth in coastal regions, land-use analysis efforts are more challenging than ever. Land-use decision-makers in coastal communities are burdened with the difficult choices of where to place new homes versus other assets. While there has been an increased focus on hazard mitigation and disaster resilience in the field of planning, evidence points towards continued development in risk-prone areas including flood zones. Residential development within flood zones specifically continues to be a major issue. To help counter this trend, this study introduces a novel land-use analysis method, coupling topographic flood inundation mapping techniques with digital elevation model (DEM) adaptations. This Topographic Model Scenario Generation workflow can be used by planners early in the land-use decision making process and provides an alternative to high-computational hydraulic models. The analysis also includes the identification of strengths and weaknesses of topographic models' recognition of built infrastructure assets, adding to a limited body of knowledge addressing recommended uses of such models. Levees and canals prove particularly functional in this context while detention ponds less so, likely due to a lack of total water mass accountability. Lastly, we provide a functional demonstration in Southeast Texas to illustrate the workflow's ability to create multiple infrastructure scenarios and visualize their effects across different flood events.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Synergistic data analytics for electromechanical oscillation in electric power systems

Accurate real-time estimation of the four electromechanical oscillation properties, i.e., dominant oscillation modes, mode shapes, participation factors, and coherent groups, is of great importance to assess and mitigate potential electromechanical oscillations in interconnected power systems. While eigenvalue analysis can realize such estimation, it requires precise linearized dynamic models and accurate parameters, which are highly difficult to obtain in practice. Data fusion-based modal estimation methods can extract the properties of electromechanical oscillations from measurement data without the power system model and parameters, but most of the time only one or two property assessments can be accomplished each time. To overcome this challenge, this paper presents a synergistic data analytics solution to characterize the dynamic behaviors of electromechanical oscillations from real-time measurement data. Here, the proposed method uses optimized variable projection, and it is capable of estimating all four electromechanical oscillation behavior properties from measured responses. Case studies are performed using the simulated measurement data of a 16-generator 68-bus test system and the field measurements collected by the PMUs deployed in the Yunnan Power Grid. The results demonstrate that the proposed synergistic data analytics solution can achieve satisfactory performance in capturing the properties of electromechanical oscillations from measurement data and exhibit strong robustness against measurement noise when compared with existing measurement-based methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Microstructure-Sensitive modeling of surface roughness and notch effects on extreme value fatigue response

Fatigue life knockdown due to surface roughness induces local stress concentrations. Physical fatigue experiments are crucial to qualify materials for use but are limited in their capability to examine the mechanisms underlying the fatigue crack formation driving force due to these stress concentrations. Microstructure-sensitive computational models can aid in this regard and are employed in this work to examine the effects of surface roughness in Al 7075-T6. Digital microstructure models are subjected to crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) simulations to examine the combined effects of microstructure and grain scale asperities on the driving force for fatigue crack formation. Following elastic–plastic shakedown, mesoscale volume-averaged fatigue indicator parameters (FIPs) are computed within fatigue damage process zones of grains. An increase in the intensity of realistic surface roughness profiles corresponds accordingly to larger FIPs but it is difficult to precisely interpret the mechanisms and effects of this intensification. We thus parametrically investigate surface asperities that couple with microstructure and lack of constraint on slip at the free surface to describe microstructure-sensitive surface roughness knockdown effects on fatigue resistance. The depth of a single valley (i.e., notch) due to surface roughness is found to be more detrimental to fatigue resistance than the radius (i.e., notch width, not to be confused with notch acuity). Finally, we also find that different crystallographic textures, grain morphologies, and number of sampled grains have a limited effect on the depth of influence of these notches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Machine learning to discover mineral trapping signatures due to CO 2 injection

Mineral trapping is pursued as a geological CO 2 sequestration (GCS) mechanism because it permanently stores CO 2 in solid phases or minerals. However, CO 2 mineral-trapping mechanisms are poorly understood due to (1) lack of sufficient field and laboratory data characterizing these complex processes, and (2) challenges to develop site-specific reactive-transport models coupling fluid flow and geochemical reactions occurring at various temporal (from milliseconds to years) and spatial (from pore (millimeters) to field (kilometers)) scales. Reactive transport with additional complexities such as heterogeneity can make the simulation outputs even more difficult to interpret because of complex nonlinearity and multi-scale interdependencies. Furthermore, the values of model outputs such as concentrations can vary by several orders of magnitude, making it harder to correlate and characterize the impact of the variables via traditional data interpretation techniques such as exploratory data analyses. Recently, machine learning (ML) has shown promise in feature discovery and in highlighting hidden mechanisms that cannot be obtained by existing data-analytics and statistical methods. In this study, we applied an unsupervised ML approach, non-negative matrix factorization with custom -means clustering (NMF) to the data generated by reactive-transport simulations of GCS. The reactive-transport data consisted of 19 attributes, including four physio-chemical variables (pH, porosity, aqueous CO 2 , and sequestered CO 2 ), six chemical species (K + , Na + , HCO, Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , Fe 2+ ), and four carbonate minerals (calcite, dolomite, siderite, and ankerite), a feldspar mineral (albite), and four clay minerals (illite, clinochlore, kaolinite, and smectite) over a period of 200 years of simulation time. Furthermore, the simulation data used was for Morrow B sandstone at the Farnsworth hydrocarbon unit in Texas. Data are sampled at two locations within the model domain: (1) at the injection well and (2) 200 m west of the injection well. The injection was performed for a period of 10 years. Using NMF, we estimated the temporal interdependencies among the 19 attributes over a span of 200 years. We found that NMF was able to identify four reaction stages and their dominant attributes; these cannot be directly discerned through traditional visualization (e.g., line plots, Pareto analysis, Glyph-based visualization methods) or exploratory data analysis tools of the simulation data. The four stages were: reactions in the injection phase followed by short-, mid-, and long-term reactions. The NMF analysis also revealed that 10 among the 19 attributes are dominant. These dominant attributes for mineral trapping include calcite, dolomite at injection well, siderite at 200 m away from the injection well, clinochlore, kaolinite, Na + , K + , Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , pH, and aqeuous CO 2 . Finally, at late times (65–200 years), our results showed that calcite plays a major role in mineral trapping with insignificant contribution from siderite, ankerite, and clay minerals. These findings make the proposed unsupervised ML-model attractive for reactive-transport sensing towards real-time GCS monitoring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗