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EXAGRAPH: Graph and combinatorial methods for enabling exascale applications

Combinatorial algorithms in general and graph algorithms in particular play a critical enabling role in numerous scientific applications. However, the irregular memory access nature of these algorithms makes them one of the hardest algorithmic kernels to implement on parallel systems. With tens of billions of hardware threads and deep memory hierarchies, the exascale computing systems in particular pose extreme challenges in scaling graph algorithms. The codesign center on combinatorial algorithms, ExaGraph, was established to design and develop methods and techniques for efficient implementation of key combinatorial (graph) algorithms chosen from a diverse set of exascale applications. Algebraic and combinatorial methods have a complementary role in the advancement of computational science and engineering, including playing an enabling role on each other. In this paper, we survey the algorithmic and software development activities performed under the auspices of ExaGraph from both a combinatorial and an algebraic perspective. In particular, we detail our recent efforts in porting the algorithms to manycore accelerator (GPU) architectures. We also provide a brief survey of the applications that have benefited from the scalable implementations of different combinatorial algorithms to enable scientific discovery at scale. We believe that several applications will benefit from the algorithmic and software tools developed by the ExaGraph team.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Pore‐Scale Modeling of Carbon Dioxide and Hydrogen Transport During Geologic Gas Storage

Abstract Geologic storage of CO 2 and H 2 are climate‐positive techniques for meeting the energy transition. While similar formations could be considered for both gases, the flow dynamics could differ due to differences in their thermophysical properties. We conduct a rigorous pore‐scale study of water/CO 2 and water/H 2 systems at relevant reservoir conditions in a Bentheimer rock sample using the lattice Boltzmann method to quantify the effects of capillary, viscous, inertial, and wetting forces during gas invasion. At similar conditions, H 2 invasion is weaker compared to CO 2 due to unfavorable viscosity ratios. Increasing flow rate, however, increases the breakthrough saturation for both gas systems in the range of capillary numbers studied. At isolated conditions of flow rate, viscosity ratio, and wettability, local inertial effects are found to be critical and show consistent increase in the invaded gas saturation. The effect of inertial forces persits for both gases across all field conditions tested.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Thermal conductivity of two-dimensional disordered fibrous materials defined by interfiber thermal contact conductance and intrinsic conductivity of fibers

A general framework for the theoretical analysis and numerical calculations of the effective thermal conductivity of two-dimensional homogeneous and isotropic disordered fibrous materials is developed in this work based on the model of random contacts between soft-core spherocylinders. The analysis accounts for the interfiber contact conductance and intrinsic conductivity of fibers and is performed in a wide space of governing parameters that includes the fiber aspect ratio, Biot number calculated for a single thermal contact between fibers, and material density ranging from values corresponding to the percolation threshold up to those characteristic of dense fiber networks. For dense networks, exact theoretical equations for the thermal conductivity of materials composed of spherocylinders with an arbitrary aspect ratio and Biot number are derived. The effect of the intrinsic conductivity of fibers on the thermal transport in fibrous materials is found to depend on the density of contacts and can be significant in sufficiently dense fiber networks even if the Biot number for a single thermal contact is small. Semiempirical corrections to the theoretical equations are derived for small and moderate fiber densities. The power law exponent describing the approximate dependence of the conductivity on the density parameter is found to vary from values close to 1 up to values exceeding 2 when evaluated within different finite ranges of the density parameter. This finding explains the variability of scaling laws for thermal conductivity of fibrous materials suggested in the literature based on numerical simulations performed in different regions of the space of material parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The miniJPAS survey: AGN and host galaxy coevolution of X-ray-selected sources

Studies indicate strong evidence of a scaling relation in the local Universe between the supermassive black hole mass (MBH) and the stellar mass of their host galaxies (M * ). They even show similar histories across cosmic times of their differential terms: the star formation rate (SFR) and black hole accretion rate (BHAR). However, a clear picture of this coevolution is far from being understood. We selected an X-ray sample of active galactic nuclei (AGN) up to z = 2.5 in the miniJPAS footprint. Their X-ray to infrared spectral energy distributions (SEDs) have been modeled with the CIGALE code, constraining the emission to 68 bands, from which 54 are the narrow filters from the miniJPAS survey. For a final sample of 308 galaxies, we derived their physical properties, such as their M * , SFR, star formation history (SFH), and the luminosity produced by the accretion process of the central BH (L AGN ). For a subsample of 113 sources, we also fit their optical spectra to obtain the gas velocity dispersion from the broad emission lines and estimated the M BH . We calculated the BHAR in physical units depending on two radiative efficiency regimes. We find that the Eddington ratios (λ Edd ) and its popular proxy (L X /M * ) have a difference of 0.6 dex, on average, and a KS test indicates that they come from different distributions. Our sources exhibit a considerable scatter on the MBH - M * scaling relation, which can explain the difference between λ Edd and its proxy. We also modeled three evolution scenarios for each source to recover the integral properties at z = 0. Using the SFR and BHAR, we show a notable diminution in the scattering between MBH - M * . For the last scenario, we considered the SFH and a simple energy budget for the AGN accretion, and we retrieved a relation similar to the calibrations known for the local Universe. Our study covers ~1 deg 2 in the sky and is sensitive to biases in luminosity. Nevertheless, we show that, for bright sources, the link between the differential values (SFR and BHAR) and their decoupling based on an energy limit is the key that leads to the local M BH - M * scaling relation. In the future, we plan to extend this methodology to a thousand degrees of the sky using JPAS with an X-ray selection from eROSITA, to obtain an unbiased distribution of BHAR and Eddington ratios.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Navigating the Noise: Bringing Clarity to ML Parameterization Design With O $\boldsymbol{\mathcal{O}}$(100) Ensembles

Abstract Machine‐learning (ML) parameterizations of subgrid processes (here of turbulence, convection, and radiation) may one day replace conventional parameterizations by emulating high‐resolution physics without the cost of explicit simulation. However, uncertainty about the relationship between offline and online performance (i.e., when integrated with a large‐scale general circulation model) hinders their development. Much of this uncertainty stems from limited sampling of the noisy, emergent effects of upstream ML design decisions on downstream online hybrid simulation. Our work rectifies the sampling issue via the construction of a semi‐automated, end‐to‐end pipeline for size ensembles of hybrid simulations, revealing important nuances in how systematic reductions in offline error manifest in changes to online error and online stability. For example, removing dropout and switching from a Mean Squared Error to a Mean Absolute Error loss both reduce offline error, but they have opposite effects on online error and online stability. Other design decisions, like incorporating memory, converting moisture input from specific humidity to relative humidity, using batch normalization, and training on multiple climates do not come with any such compromises. Finally, we show that ensemble sizes of may be necessary to reliably detect causally relevant differences online. By enabling rapid online experimentation at scale, we can empirically settle debates regarding subgrid ML parameterization design that would have otherwise remained unresolved in the noise.

Lin, Jerry [Department of Earth System Sciences Un↗

Differences in c-Si Solar Cell Metallization and Susceptibility to Series Resistance Degradation

In this case study, we investigate a degradation mode occurring at the cell level in fielded multi-Si modules. Affected cells in the module show a progressive, series-resistance-related power degradation observed in module- and cell-level IV curves along with EL and PL imaging at the module, cell, and cell core sample scale. SEM and elemental analysis via EDS reveal a difference in the oxides in the silver paste used in screen printing of the finger contacts. This suggests that the cells were screen printed with different silver paste compositions and possibly firing conditions. One of these combinations leads to degradation of the contact at the interface between the cell and contact finger, causing severe series resistance across the cell that continues to progress over time.

acetic acid↗

Exploring the Meteorological Impacts of Surface and Rooftop Heat Mitigation Strategies Over a Tropical City

Different heat mitigation technologies have been developed to improve the thermal environment in cities. However, the regional impacts of such technologies, especially in the context of a tropical city, remain unclear. The deployment of heat mitigation technologies at city-scale can change the radiation balance, advective flow, and energy balance between urban areas and the overlying atmosphere. We used the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a physically based single-layer urban canopy model to assess the impacts of five different heat mitigation technologies on surface energy balance, standard surface meteorological fields, and planetary boundary layer (PBL) dynamics for premonsoon typical hot summer days over a tropical coastal city in the month of April in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Results indicate that the regional impacts of cool materials (CMs), super-cool broadband radiative coolers, green roofs (GRs), vegetation fraction change, and a combination of CMs and GRs (i.e., “Cool city (CC)”) on the lower atmosphere are different at diurnal scale. Results showed that super-cool materials have the maximum potential of ambient temperature reduction of 1.6°C during peak hour (14:00 LT) compared to other technologies in the study. During the daytime hours, the PBL height was considerably lower than the reference scenario with no implementation of strategies by 700 m for super-cool materials and 500 m for both CMs and CC cases; however, the green roofing system underwent nominal changes over the urban area. During the nighttime hours, the PBL height increased by CMs and the CC strategies compared to the reference scenario, but minimal changes were evident for super-cool materials. The changes of temperature on the vertical profile of the heat mitigation implemented city reveal a stable PBL over the urban domain and a reduction of the vertical mixing associated with a pollution dome. This would lead to crossover phenomena above the PBL due to the decrease in vertical wind speed. Therefore, assessing the coupled regional impact of urban heat mitigation over the lower atmosphere at city-scale is urgent for sustainable urban planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurements of J/ ψ Production vs. Event Multiplicity in Forward Rapidity in p + p Collisions in the PHENIX Experiment

J / Ψ, a charmonium bound state made of a charm and an anti-charm quark, was discovered in the 1970s and confirmed the quark model. Because the mass of charm quarks is significantly above the quantum chromodynamics (QCD) scale Λ QCD , charmonia are considered excellent probes to test perturbative quantum chromodynamics (pQCD) calculations. In recent decades, they have been studied extensively at different high-energy colliders. However, their production mechanisms, which involve multiple scales, are still not very well understood. Recently, in high-multiplicity p + p collisions at RHIC and at the LHC, a significant enhancement of J / Ψ production yield has been observed, which suggests a strong contribution of multi-parton interaction (MPI). This is different from the traditional pQCD picture, where charm quark pairs are produced from a single hard scattering between partons in p + p collisions. In this work, we will report the J / Ψ normalized production yield as a function of normalized charged particle multiplicity over a board range of rapidity and event multiplicity in the J / Ψ → μ + μ – channel with PHENIX Run 15 p + p data at $\sqrt s$ =200 GeV. The results are compared with PYTHIA 8 simulations with the MPI option turned on and off. Finally, the outlooks of J / Ψ in p + Au and Au + p collisions, along with color glass condensate (CGC) predictions and the multiplicity-dependent Ψ(2S) /J / Ψ ratio in p + p data, will be briefly discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Noise Robustness and Experimental Demonstration of a Quantum Generative Adversarial Network for Continuous Distributions

Abstract The potential advantage of machine learning in quantum computers is a topic of intense discussion in the literature. Theoretical, numerical, and experimental explorations will most likely be required to understand its power. There have been different algorithms proposed to exploit the probabilistic nature of variational quantum circuits for generative modeling. In this paper, a hybrid architecture for quantum generative adversarial networks (QGANs) is employed and their robustness in the presence of noise is studied. A simple way of adding different types of noise to the quantum generator circuit is devised, and the noisy hybrid QGANs (HQGANs) are simulated numerically to learn continuous probability distributions, and to show that the performance of HQGANs remains unaffected. The effect of different parameters on the training time is also investigated to reduce the computational scaling of the algorithm and simplify its deployment on a quantum computer. The training on Rigetti's Aspen‐4‐2Q‐A quantum processing unit is then performed, and the results from the training are presented. The authors' results pave the way for experimental exploration of different quantum machine learning algorithms on noisy intermediate‐scale quantum devices.

Anand, Abhinav↗

User-defined EMT inverter model reference performance, utility-scale [Slides]

This report investigates the response of the inverter under different terminal voltage and operating conditions. The goal is to understand the control objective of the inverter (e.g., injection of reactive current for voltage dips) based on the inverter’s response. No attempt is made to determine the exact control algorithms implemented in the inverter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Feature review of photovoltaic modeling software utilizing blind performance assessment

While confidence in photovoltaic (PV) modeling software has always been essential, the rapid pace of new PV plant developments makes accuracy and credibility more critical than ever. Independent assessments, particularly through blind modeling comparisons, are therefore necessary to ensure unbiased benchmarking across PV modeling software. Previous studies have been limited by a narrow range of models compared, anonymized results, or system size. This study presents results from the first-ever onymous blind modeling comparison, evaluated using both lab- and utility-scale fixed-tilt, monofacial, south-facing systems at sub-hourly time intervals. Seven commercially used PV software tools were compared: 3E SynaptiQ, PlantPredict, PVsyst, RatedPower, SAM, SolarFarmer, and Solargis Evaluate. Predictions were submitted directly by software representatives, providing unique insights into each software’s implementation and resulting prediction behavior. Notable features, including plane-of-array (POA) transposition model, module temperature model, shading model, and performance model were analyzed and compared. Four summary tables compile these features of the software, serving as a resource to help users understand the methodological differences and select the most suitable software for their applications. The software tools show deviations from mean error in annual yield up to 2.5 % in the lab-scale system, increasing to 6.0 % for the utility-scale system. These differences arise from a combination of user decisions and the inherent behavior of the software, indicating the need for continuous and rigorous validation of modeling methods using these software tools against complex, real-world systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Metabolic engineering of Synechococcus elongatus 7942 for enhanced sucrose biosynthesis

The capability of cyanobacteria to produce sucrose from CO 2 and light has a remarkable societal and biotechnological impact since sucrose can serve as a carbon and energy source for a variety of heterotrophic organisms and can be converted into value-added products. However, most metabolic engineering efforts have focused on understanding local pathway alterations that drive sucrose biosynthesis and secretion in cyanobacteria rather than analyzing the global flux re-routing that occurs following induction of sucrose production by salt stress. Here, we investigated global metabolic flux alterations in a sucrose-secreting (cscB-overexpressing) strain relative to its wild-type Synechococcus elongatus 7942 parental strain. Here we used targeted metabolomics, 13 C metabolic flux analysis (MFA), and genome-scale modeling (GSM) as complementary approaches to elucidate differences in cellular resource allocation by quantifying metabolic profiles of three cyanobacterial cultures - wild-type S. elongatus 7942 without salt stress (WT), wild-type with salt stress (WT/NaCl), and the cscB-overexpressing strain with salt stress (cscB/NaCl) - all under photoautotrophic conditions. We quantified the substantial rewiring of metabolic fluxes in WT/NaCl and cscB/NaCl cultures relative to WT and identified a metabolic bottleneck limiting carbon fixation and sucrose biosynthesis. This bottleneck was subsequently mitigated through heterologous overexpression of glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase in an engineered sucrose-secreting strain. Our study also demonstrates that combining 13 C-MFA and GSM is a useful strategy to both extend the coverage of MFA beyond central metabolism and to improve the accuracy of flux predictions provided by GSM.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Performance Evaluation of a Two-Dimensional Flood Model on Heterogeneous High-Performance Computing Architectures

This paper describes the implementation of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic flood model with two different numerical schemes on heterogeneous high-performance computing architectures. Both schemes were able to solve the nonlinear hyperbolic shallow water equations using an explicit upwind first-order approach on finite differences and finite volumes, respectively, and were conducted using MPI and CUDA. Four different test cases were simulated on the Summit supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Both numerical schemes scaled up to 128 nodes (768 GPUs) with a maximum 98.2x speedup of over 1 GPU. The lowest run time for the 10 day Hurricane Harvey event simulation at 5 meter resolution (272 million grid cells) was 50 minutes. GPUDirect communication proved to be more convenient than the standard communication strategy. Both strong and weak scaling are shown.

Sharif, Md Bulbul↗

A comparative study of machine learning models for predicting the state of reactive mixing

Mixing phenomena are important mechanisms controlling flow, species transport, and reaction processes in fluids and porous media. Accurate predictions of reactive mixing are critical for many Earth and environmental science problems such as contaminant fate and remediation, macroalgae growth, and plankton biomass evolution. Here, to investigate the evolution of mixing dynamics under different scenarios (e.g., anisotropy, fluctuating velocity fields), a finite-element-based numerical model was built to solve the fast, irreversible bimolecular reaction-diffusion equations to simulate a range of reactive-mixing scenarios. A total of 2,315 simulations were performed using different sets of model input parameters comprising various spatial scales of vortex structures in the velocity field, time-scales associated with velocity oscillations, the perturbation parameter for the vortex-based velocity, anisotropic dispersion contrast (i.e., ratio of longitudinal-to-transverse dispersion), and molecular diffusion. The outputs comprised concentration profiles of reactants and products. The inputs to and outputs from these simulations were concatenated into feature and label matrices, respectively, to train 20 different machine learning (ML) models intended to emulate system behavior. These 20 ML emulators, based on linear methods, Bayesian methods, ensemble learning methods, and multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), were trained to classify the state of mixing and predict three quantities of interest (QoIs) characterizing species production, decay (i.e., average concentration, square of average concentration), and degree of mixing (i.e., variances of species concentration). Unsurprisingly, linear classifiers and regressors failed to reproduce the QoIs; however, ensemble methods (classifiers and regressors) and the MLP model accurately classified the state of reactive mixing and the QoIs. Among ensemble methods, random forest and decision-tree-based AdaBoost faithfully predicted the QoIs. At run time, trained ML emulators produced results times faster than the finite-element simulations. Due to their low computational expense and high accuracy, ensemble and MLP models are excellent emulators for these numerical simulations and great utilities in uncertainty quantification exercises, which can require 1,000s of forward model runs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Toward accurate prediction of partial-penetration laser weld performance informed by three-dimensional characterization – Part II: μCT based finite element simulations

The mechanical behavior of partial-penetration laser welds exhibits significant variability in engineering quantities such as strength and apparent ductility. Understanding the root cause of this variability is important when using such welds in engineering designs. In Part II of this work, we develop finite element simulations with geometry derived from micro-computed tomography (μCT) scans of partial-penetration 304L stainless steel laser welds that were analyzed in Part I. We use these models to study the effects of the welds’ small-scale geometry, including porosity and weld depth variability, on the structural performance metrics of weld ductility and strength under quasi-static tensile loading. We show that this small-scale geometry is the primary cause of the observed variability for these mechanical response quantities. Additionally, we explore the sensitivity of model results to the conversion of the μCT data to discretized model geometry using different segmentation algorithms, and to the effect of small-scale geometry simplifications for pore shape and weld root texture. The modeling approach outlined and results of this work may be applicable to other material systems with small-scale geometric features and defects, such as additively manufactured materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dependence of CCN closure relationship with organic fraction from two airborne field campaigns over mid-latitude land and ocean

This study investigates the relationship between measured and calculated cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration and its dependence with organic fraction utilizing aircraft observations from The Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA, 2017–2018) and The Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land Ecosystems (HI-SCALE, 2016) campaigns, which represent midlatitude marine and continental environments, respectively. For the ACE-ENA marine region, aerosol and CCN concentrations were significantly higher in summer than in winter, whereas at continental site for HI-SCALE, aerosol and CCN concentrations showed no pronounced differences between spring and autumn. Using aerosol chemical composition and number size distribution data, CCN concentrations at various supersaturations are calculated based on Köhler theory and then compared with observations from CCN counter. The results show that CCN closure performs well at both sites with a slight overestimation, with mean closure ratio (CR) of 1.13 and 1.17, respectively. Further investigation reveals that CR at lower supersaturation perform better than that at higher supersaturation. The dependence of CR on organic mass fraction (MForg) varies by environment: for marine aerosols, CR decreases with increasing organic fraction at lower supersaturations, whereas continental aerosols exhibit a consistent overestimation, with CR decreasing as organic fraction increases at higher supersaturations. This study provides key insights into CCN characteristics over midlatitude marine and continental environments, emphasizing the necessity of incorporating size-resolved chemical composition and mixing states into future model parameterizations, and contributing to a better understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions.

ACE-ENA field campaign↗

Laser Plasma Interaction in the MG Magnetic Field (Final Report)

Strong magnetic fields change properties of plasma. Employment of the magnetic fields can improve conditions for inertial confinement fusion. Compression and heating of the magnetized plasma is a base of the MagLIF pulsed power approach to the controlled fusion. Study of expansion and heating of plasma in the external magnetic fields, development of plasma instabilities, parametric and other effects are important for basic physics and applications. The main goal of the research for the grant was experimental investigation of laser produced plasma in the well characterized and controlled MG magnetic fields. We developed a platform for investigation of high intensity laser-plasma interaction (LPI) in the MG fields using a university-scale pulsed power machine. A Zebra machine at UNR generated transverse magnetic fields of 3 MG on the surface of the rod load and longitudinal fields of 1.4 MG in the coil loads. The magnetic fields were characterized with two-color Faraday rotation diagnostics. The pulsed power machine provided almost static magnetic fields for LPI compared to the much faster laser driven magnetic fields. We found that eddy currents in the rising magnetic field generate plasma on the metal targets. Eddy currents did not impact Si and CH dielectric targets. A Leopard laser with intensity in the focus up to 10 19 W/cm 2 produced plasma in the MG magnetic fields. The modified reflected Faraday diagnostics was used to study laser driven B-field at the MTW laser at Laboratory for Laser Energetics, UR. We demonstrated a slow dependence of the magnetic field in the coil on the applied laser intensity. The magnetic field increased by a factor of 2 if laser intensity increased by a factor of 30. This scaling is important for comparison of experiments at different laser facilities. Expansion of the plasma in the 2-3 MG external B-field was studied. Laser-produced plasma in the azimuthal magnetic field took the unique form of a thin disc expanding radially with a velocity of 250 km/s and confined in the vertical direction. A HYDRA MHD program at the University of Rochester was applied for simulations of LPI in the magnetic field B >3 MG. Simulations for the plasma disc parameters and the expansion dynamics were in a good agreement with experiments. Generation of narrow dense plasma jets in the longitudinal magnetic field of 0.6-0.8 MG was studied. Narrow plasma jets reached a length of 3-4 mm with the electron plasma density of (0.2-1.2)x10 20 cm -3 . A jet tip propagated with the velocity of 160-200 km/s. MHD simulations showed a good agreement of the dynamics of the formation of plasma jets with experiments. These jets are relevant to astrophysical jets. Simulations of K-shell spectra of Si plasma was performed for LPI in the B-field. The laser prepulse generated plasma near the laser target. A PrismSPECT model with a MeV electron beam produced by the laser was used. The spectral modelling showed the increased plasma density by a factor by 2-3 in the magnetic field. This was in agreement with the observed dynamics of the plasma plume confined by the axial magnetic field. The two-plasmon decay was studied in the 2.5-3 MG transversal magnetic fields. Strong 2-3.5 nm spectral widening and a 2-4 nm shifts of “red” and “blue” 3/2ω 0 spectral components were observed. The large shift and widening exceed the expected temperature and magnetic shift. PIC simulations are performing to clarify physics of this effect. The experimental research program for the grant is completed. New plasma effects in the MG fields were studied at the university-scale pulsed power generator. Two graduate and two undergraduate UNR and UR students carried experiments at the Zebra generator, supported and developed plasma diagnostics, provided data processing, and performed MHD simulations of LPI in the strong magnetic field. Research results are published in 9 referred papers and presented in 12 conferences. Program manager: Kramer U. Akli; Collaborators: R. C. Mancini and H. Sawada, University of Nevada, Reno (UNR); R. Betti and A. V. Maximov, University of Rochester (UR).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Rare earth metals from secondary sources: Review of potential supply from waste and byproducts

Current concerns about lack of diversity in supply of critical metals have spurred research into utilizing domestic sources, particularly from waste streams. Sustainability strategies like urban mining, industrial symbiosis, and the circular economy suggest avenues to realize new supplies of critical metals. In this work we explore the resource and economic potential for extracting rare earth elements (REEs) from industry byproducts (e.g. coal combustion products, red mud) and secondary sources (e.g. waste electronics and light bulbs). Combining materials flow analysis and characterization data, we find that while REE concentrations in waste and byproduct streams are mostly much lower than current REE ores, some secondary sources are richer than ores in high value REEs such as scandium. The quantities of REEs contained in secondary sources could meet current global demand even with low extraction yield rates. Phosphogypsum, coal ash and red mud from aluminum production stand out as promising candidates for recovery due to high concentrations of valuable REEs and sufficient quantities to potentially meet demand. Processes to extract REEs from secondary sources are under development, it is not clear yet which will be profitable at scale and which can be achieved at least environmental impact. This work provides high level guidance on the potential of secondary sources by characterizing quality (concentrations of different rare earths) and quantity (mass of rare earths in global scale wastes and byproducts). This significant first step helps clarify directions for policy and research and development investments.

42 ENGINEERING↗