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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,135 records · Page 63
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Energy considerations regarding pulsed arc production of nanomaterials

Atmospheric arc discharge volumes have been estimated from the light distribution emitted during evaporation of graphite and molybdenum disulphide (MoS 2 ) anodes. These data have been correlated to the peak power in the case of pulsed arc discharge held at different frequencies (1, 2 and 5 Hz). The measured power density values and the corresponding specific energies per particle have been compared to DC values, and showed that pulsed arc discharges deliver electrical power more efficiently than DC arc discharges do with yet lower thermal loads. In particular, the power density of ≈1 kW/cm 3 characteristic of pulsed arcs (10-20 kW/cm 3 in DC) suffices to provide 15 eV/particle to the arc plasma (≈10 eV/particle or less in DC). Such an energy balance resulted in high ionization rates of the ablated material and production yields of carbon nanotubes around 10 11 cm -2 kWh -1 . Lastly, in situ probe experiments showed that pulsed arcs enhance the transport to substrate of the generated nanoparticles, such as graphene and MoS 2 monolayers. Pulsed anodic arcs open the possibility to generate further nanomaterials thanks to a more rational power investment and a better control of the discharge region.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraining primordial non-Gaussianity from the large scale structure two-point and three-point correlation functions

Surveys of cosmological large-scale structure (LSS) are sensitive to the presence of local primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG), and may be used to constrain models of inflation. Local PNG, characterized by f NL ⁠, the amplitude of the quadratic correction to the potential of a Gaussian random field, is traditionally measured from LSS two-point and three-point clustering via the power spectrum and bi-spectrum. We propose a framework to measure f NL using the configuration space two-point correlation function (2pcf) monopole and three-point correlation function (3pcf) monopole of survey tracers. Our model estimates the effect of the scale-dependent bias induced by the presence of PNG on the 2pcf and 3pcf from the clustering of simulated dark matter haloes. We describe how this effect may be scaled to an arbitrary tracer of the cosmological matter density. The 2pcf and 3pcf of this tracer are measured to constrain the value of f NL ⁠. In LSS surveys, the effect of imaging systematics on two-point statistics is often degenerate with the PNG signal. Our proposed model employs three-point statistics primarily to break this degeneracy. Using simulations of luminous red galaxies observed by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), we demonstrate the accuracy and constraining power of our method. Our forecast indicates the ability to constrain f NL to a precision of σf NL ≈ 22 with one year of DESI survey data, as well as the ability to constrain the imaging systematic weights in situ.

early Universe↗
DOE OSTI2022

SDSS-IV MaNGA: Understanding Ionized Gas Turbulence Using Integral Field Spectroscopy of 4500 Star-forming Disk Galaxies

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey MaNGA program has now obtained integral field spectroscopy for over 10,000 galaxies in the nearby universe. We use the final MaNGA data release DR17 to study the correlation between ionized gas velocity dispersion and galactic star formation rate, finding a tight correlation in which σ Hα from galactic H ιι regions increases significantly from ~18–30 km s –1 , broadly in keeping with previous studies. In contrast, σ Hα from diffuse ionized gas increases more rapidly from 20–60 km s –1 . Using the statistical power of MaNGA, we investigate these correlations in greater detail using multiple emission lines and determine that the observed correlation of σ Hα with local star formation rate surface density is driven primarily by the global relation of increasing velocity dispersion at higher total star formation rate, as are apparent correlations with stellar mass. Assuming H ιι region models consistent with our finding that σ [O III] < σ Hα < σ [O I] , we estimate the velocity dispersion of the molecular gas in which the individual H ιι regions are embedded, finding values σ Mol = 5–30 km s –1 consistent with ALMA observations in a similar mass range. Finally, we use variations in the relation with inclination and disk azimuthal angle to constrain the velocity dispersion ellipsoid of the ionized gas σ z /σ r = 0.84 ± 0.03 and σ Φ /σ r = 0.91 ± 0.03, similar to that of young stars in the Galactic disk. Our results are most consistent with the theoretical models in which turbulence in modern galactic disks is driven primarily by star formation feedback.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A More Precise Measurement of the Radius of PSR J0740+6620 Using Updated NICER Data

PSR J0740+6620 is the neutron star with the highest precisely determined mass, inferred from radio observations to be 2.08 ± 0.07 M ⊙ . Measurements of its radius therefore hold promise to constrain the properties of the cold, catalyzed, high-density matter in neutron star cores. Previously, Miller et al. and Riley et al. reported measurements of the radius of PSR J0740+6620 based on Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) observations accumulated through 2020 April 17, and an exploratory analysis utilizing NICER background estimates and a data set accumulated through 2021 December 28 was presented in Salmi et al. Here we report an updated radius measurement, derived by fitting models of X-ray emission from the neutron star surface to NICER data accumulated through 2022 April 21, totaling ~1.1 Ms additional exposure compared to the data set analyzed in Miller et al. and Riley et al., and to data from XMM-Newton observations. We find that the equatorial circumferential radius of PSR J0740+6620 is ${12.92}_{-1.13}^{+2.09}$ km (68% credibility), a fractional uncertainty ~83% the width of that reported in Miller et al., in line with statistical expectations given the additional data. If we were to require the radius to be less than 16 km, as was done in Salmi et al., then our 68% credible region would become $R={12.76}_{-1.02}^{+1.49}$ km, which is close to the headline result of Salmi et al. Our updated measurements, along with other laboratory and astrophysical constraints, imply a slightly softer equation of state than that inferred from our previous measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constraining the Dense Matter Equation of State with Joint Analysis of NICER and LIGO/Virgo Measurements

The Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer collaboration recently published a joint estimate of the mass and the radius of PSR J0030+0451, derived via X-ray pulse-profile modeling. Raaijmakers et al. explored the implications of this measurement for the dense matter equation of state (EOS) using two parameterizations of the high-density EOS: a piecewise-polytropic model, and a model based on the speed of sound in neutron stars (NSs). In this work we obtain further constraints on the EOS following this approach, but we also include information about the tidal deformability of NSs from the gravitational wave signal of the compact binary merger GW170817. Further, we compare the constraints on the EOS to those set by the recent measurement of a 2.14 Me pulsar, included as a likelihood function approximated by a Gaussian, and find a small increase in information gain. To show the flexibility of our method, we also explore the possibility that GW170817 was a NS–black hole merger, which yields weaker constraints on the EOS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding and improving model representation of aerosol optical properties for a Chinese haze event measured during KORUS-AQ

KORUS-AQ was an international cooperative air quality field study in South Korea that measured local and remote sources of air pollution affecting the Korean Peninsula during May–June 2016. Some of the largest aerosol mass concentrations were measured during a Chinese haze transport event (24 May). Air quality forecasts using the WRF-Chem model with aerosol optical depth (AOD) data assimilation captured AOD during this pollution episode but overpredicted surface particulate matter concentrations in South Korea, especially PM 2.5 , often by a factor of 2 or larger. Analysis revealed multiple sources of model deficiency related to the calculation of optical properties from aerosol mass that explain these discrepancies. Using in situ observations of aerosol size and composition as inputs to the optical properties calculations showed that using a low-resolution size bin representation (four bins) underestimates the efficiency with which aerosols scatter and absorb light (mass extinction efficiency). Besides using finer-resolution size bins (8–16 bins), it was also necessary to increase the refractive indices and hygroscopicity of select aerosol species within the range of values reported in the literature to achieve better consistency with measured values of the mass extinction efficiency (6.7 m 2 g –1 observed average) and light-scattering enhancement factor (ƒ(RH)) due to aerosol hygroscopic growth (2.2 observed average). Furthermore, an evaluation of the optical properties obtained using modeled aerosol properties revealed the inability of sectional and modal aerosol representations in WRF-Chem to properly reproduce the observed size distribution, with the models displaying a much wider accumulation mode. Other model deficiencies included an underestimate of organic aerosol density (1.0 g cm –3 in the model vs. observed average of 1.5 g cm –3 ) and an overprediction of the fractional contribution of submicron inorganic aerosols other than sulfate, ammonium, nitrate, chloride, and sodium corresponding to mostly dust (17 %–28 % modeled vs. 12 % estimated from observations). These results illustrate the complexity of achieving an accurate model representation of optical properties and provide potential solutions that are relevant to multiple disciplines and applications such as air quality forecasts, health impact assessments, climate projections, solar power forecasts, and aerosol data assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the influence of field inventory sampling intensity on forest landscape model performance for determining high-severity wildfire risk

Abstract Historically, fire has been essential in Southwestern US forests. However, a century of fire-exclusion and changing climate created forests which are more susceptible to uncharacteristically severe wildfires. Forest managers use a combination of thinning and prescribed burning to reduce forest density to help mitigate the risk of high-severity fires. These treatments are laborious and expensive, therefore optimizing their impact is crucial. Landscape simulation models can be useful in identifying high risk areas and assessing treatment effects, but uncertainties in these models can limit their utility in decision making. In this study we examined underlying uncertainties in the initial vegetation layer by leveraging a previous study from the Santa Fe fireshed and using new inventory plots from 111 stands to interpolate the initial forest conditions. We found that more inventory plots resulted in a different geographic distribution and wider range of the modelled biomass. This changed the location of areas with high probability of high-severity fires, shifting the optimal location for management. The increased range of biomass variability from using a larger number of plots to interpolate the initial vegetation layer also influenced ecosystem carbon dynamics, resulting in simulated forest conditions that had higher rates of carbon uptake. We conclude that the initial forest layer significantly affects fire and carbon dynamics and is dependent on both number of plots, and sufficient representation of the range of forest types and biomass density.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Waffle Homes: Utilizing Aerial Imagery of Unfinished Buildings to Determine Average Room Size

A primary function of the Population Density Tables Project (PDT) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is to produce residential population densities per 1000 sq. ft. for each country and their associated first-level administrative units. This is accomplished by utilizing the average size of different types of dwelling areas (urban, rural, single-family, multi-family, etc.) and the average household size provided by a country’s Census or statistical bureau records. This data is available for the majority of Europe, North America, and large swathes of Asia, but is less easily found in Africa and South America. In these regions, Censuses generally report dwelling area by number of rooms, which poses the challenging question of how we can translate number of rooms to dwelling size when no dwelling size areas are available with which to compare. Using sub-meter resolution satellite imagery of Accra, Ghana, this challenge can be tackled using imagery of roofless buildings currently under construction that show the interior floor plan of the dwelling. A sample of buildings from the different neighborhoods of Accra can be digitized to provide an estimate and range of average room sizes of dwellings. This average room size can then be translated to a total dwelling area using the "number of rooms occupied by a household" variable from the Ghanaian Census. This intermediate step between average dwelling size and number of rooms occupied, fills the missing link that prevents PDT from continually producing new population densities for countries where dwelling size is unavailable through any official means.

Woody, Carson↗
DOE OSTI2020

Plateau de Bure High-z Blue Sequence Survey 2 (PHIBSS2): Search for Secondary Sources, CO Luminosity Functions in the Field, and the Evolution of Molecular Gas Density through Cosmic Time

We report on the results of a search for serendipitous sources in CO emission in 110 cubes targeting CO(2 − 1), CO(3 − 2), and CO(6 − 5) at z ∼ 1–2 from the second Plateau de Bure High-z Blue Sequence Survey (PHIBSS2). The PHIBSS2 observations were part of a 4 yr legacy program at the IRAM Plateau de Bure Interferometer aimed at studying early galaxy evolution from the perspective of molecular gas reservoirs. We present a catalog of 67 candidate secondary sources from this search, with 45 of the 110 data cubes showing sources in addition to the primary target that appear to be field detections, unrelated to the central sources. This catalog includes redshifts, line widths, and fluxes, as well as an estimation of their reliability based on their false-positive probability. We perform a search in the 3D Hubble Space Telescope/CANDELS catalogs for the secondary CO detections and tentatively find that ∼64% of these have optical counterparts, which we use to constrain their redshifts. Finally, we use our catalog of candidate CO detections to derive the CO(2 − 1), CO(3 − 2), CO(4 − 3), CO(5 − 4), and CO(6 − 5) luminosity functions over a range of redshifts, as well as the molecular gas mass density evolution. Despite the different methodology, these results are in very good agreement with previous observational constraints derived from blind searches in deep fields. They provide an example of the type of “deep-field” science that can be carried out with targeted observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detection of Outliers in LiDAR Data Acquired by Multiple Platforms over Sorghum and Maize

High-resolution point cloud data acquired with a laser scanner from any platform contain random noise and outliers. Therefore, outlier detection in LiDAR data is often necessary prior to analysis. Applications in agriculture are particularly challenging, as there is typically no prior knowledge of the statistical distribution of points, plant complexity, and local point densities, which are crop-dependent. The goals of this study were first to investigate approaches to minimize the impact of outliers on LiDAR acquired over agricultural row crops, and specifically for sorghum and maize breeding experiments, by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a wheel-based ground platform; second, to evaluate the impact of existing outliers in the datasets on leaf area index (LAI) prediction using LiDAR data. Two methods were investigated to detect and remove the outliers from the plant datasets. The first was based on surface fitting to noisy point cloud data via normal and curvature estimation in a local neighborhood. The second utilized the PointCleanNet deep learning framework. Both methods were applied to individual plants and field-based datasets. To evaluate the method, an F-score was calculated for synthetic data in the controlled conditions, and LAI, the variable being predicted, was computed both before and after outlier removal for both scenarios. Results indicate that the deep learning method for outlier detection is more robust than the geometric approach to changes in point densities, level of noise, and shapes. The prediction of LAI was also improved for the wheel-based vehicle data based on the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the residuals before and after the removal of outliers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing a supernova’s standing accretion shock instability with neutrinos and gravitational waves

Here, we perform a novel multi-messenger analysis for the identification and parameter estimation of the Standing Accretion Shock Instability (SASI) in a core collapse supernova with neutrino and gravitational wave (GW) signals. In the neutrino channel, this method performs a likelihood ratio test for the presence of SASI in the frequency domain. For gravitational wave signals we process an event with a modified constrained likelihood method. Using simulated supernova signals, the properties of the Hyper-Kamiokande neutrino detector, and O3 LIGO Interferometric data, we produce the two-dimensional probability density distribution (PDF) of the SASI activity indicator and calculate the probability of detection P D as well as the false identification probability P FI . We discuss the probability to establish the presence of the SASI as a function of the source distance in each observational channel, as well as jointly. Compared to a single-messenger approach, the joint analysis results in P D (at P FI = 0.1) of SASI activities that is larger by up to ≈ 40% for a distance to the supernova of 5 kpc. We also discuss how accurately the frequency and duration of the SASI activity can be estimated in each channel separately. Our methodology is suitable for implementation in a realistic data analysis and a multi-messenger setting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Verification of stability and unraveling the electronic and physical properties of bulk and (001)-surfaces of newly synthesized Ti 2 ZnX (X = C, N) MAX phases

MAX phase family has been extended by the addition of late transition metals at the A-site with the expectation of diverse functional properties. Here, we present our systematic density functional investigation on the thermodynamic and phonon stabilities, elastic properties, including elastic constants, elastic moduli and elastic anisotropy of newly synthesized Ti 2 ZnX (X = C, N) phases in comparison with conventional Ti 2 AlX (X = C, N). Due to the smaller size of N as compared to C, the unit cell dimension is reduced when C atoms are replaced by N atoms at the X-site. Furthermore, the Ti 2 ZnC and Ti 2 ZnN are stable at the equilibrium volume of 110.84 Å 3 and 105.70 Å 3 . The thermodynamic, mechanical and dynamical stabilities are validated by estimating the formation energies, elastic constants and phonon dispersions, respectively. The elastic properties of Ti 2 ZnN are less anisotropic as compared to those of Ti 2 ZnC. To understand the thin-film characteristics in Ti 2 ZnX, the surface properties with (001)-terminated slabs are investigated. Both Ti 2 ZnX bulk and (001)-surfaces exhibit metal-like electronic structures. There is a strong covalent bonding between Ti-X and Ti-Zn atoms confirmed by the charge density map and Mulliken population analysis. Additional states are generated at the Fermi level (EF) due to the unusual d-p states hybridization between Ti and Zn atoms. The anisotropy in chemical bonding is confirmed by the cleavage energy difference between Ti-X and Ti-Zn. Here, Ti(X)-001 and Zn-001 terminations are stable surfaces; however, in terms of chemical potentials, Zn-001 termination is the most favourable in Ti 2 ZnX.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A warm super-Neptune around the G-dwarf star TOI-1710 revealed with TESS, SOPHIE, and HARPS-N

We report the discovery and characterization of the transiting extrasolar planet TOI-1710 b. It was first identified as a promising candidate by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite. Its planetary nature was then established with SOPHIE and HARPS-N spectroscopic observations via the radial-velocity method. The stellar parameters for the host star are derived from the spectra and a joint Markov chain Monte-Carlo adjustment of the spectral energy distribution and evolutionary tracks of TOI-1710. A joint MCMC analysis of the TESS light curve and the radial-velocity evolution allows us to determine the planetary system properties. From our analysis, TOI 1710 b is found to be a massive warm super-Neptune (M p = 28.3 ± 4.7 M ⊕ and R p = 5.34 ± 0.11 R ⊕ ) orbiting a G5V dwarf star (T eff = 5665 ± 55 K) on a nearly circular 24.3-day orbit (e = 0.16 ± 0.08). The orbital period of this planet is close to the estimated rotation period of its host star P rot = 22.5 ± 2.0 days and it has a low Keplerian semi-amplitude K = 6.4 ± 1.0 m s -1 ; we thus performed additional analyses to show the robustness of the retrieved planetary parameters. With a low bulk density of 1.03 ± 0.23 g cm -3 and orbiting a bright host star (J = 8.3, V = 9.6), TOI-1710 b is one of the best targets in this mass-radius range (near the Neptunian desert) for atmospheric characterization via transmission spectroscopy, a key measurement in constraining planet formation and evolutionary models of sub-Jovian planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing the magnetic fields of nearby molecular clouds using submillimeter polarization observations

Of all the factors that influence star formation, magnetic fields are perhaps the least well understood. The goal of this paper is to characterize the 3D magnetic field properties of nearby molecular clouds through various methods of statistically analysing maps of polarized dust emission. Our study focuses on nine clouds, with data taken from the Planck Sky Survey as well as data from the Balloon-borne Large Aperture Submillimeter Telescope for Polarimetry observations of Vela C. We compare the distributions of polarization fraction (p), dispersion in polarization angles ($\mathcal {S}$), and hydrogen column density (N H ) for each of our targeted clouds. To broaden the scope of our analysis, we compare the distributions of our clouds’ polarization observables with measurements from synthetic polarization maps generated from numerical simulations. We also use the distribution of polarization fraction measurements to estimate the inclination angle of each cloud’s cloud-scale magnetic field. We obtain a range of inclination angles associated with our clouds, varying from 16° to 69°. We establish inverse correlations between p and both $\mathcal {S}$ and NH in almost every cloud, but we are unable to establish a statistically robust $\mathcal {S}$ versus NH trend. By comparing the results of these different statistical analysis techniques, we are able to propose a more comprehensive view of each cloud’s 3D magnetic field properties. These detailed cloud analyses will be useful in the continued studies of cloud-scale magnetic fields and the ways in which they affect star formation within these molecular clouds.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

X-ray and Neutron Radiography for Quantitative Material Reconstructions

Radiography is a powerful tool to determine the interior structure of objects. X-ray radiography is widely used and provides high-resolution images, though X-rays have limited transmission through materials of high atomic number (Z) and density. In contrast, neutrons can penetrate many materials that are heavily attenuating to X-rays, such as metals, providing contrast in the inner layers of highly attenuating items. Past work has shown the value in using both X-ray and neutron radiography for estimating material thicknesses, though that work was limited to simulated data. Here, we demonstrate quantitative material reconstructions using experimental X-ray and neutron radiography data from lab-based systems, accurately modeling radiography system responses to within a few percent to enable quantitative measures of material thickness. We demonstrate the utility of neutron radiography and X-ray radiography for these quantitative reconstructions and introduce methods for using their complementarity to improve image quality and optimize experimental design.

Gilbert, Andrew J.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the Impact of a Forest Canopy on Near-Surface Wind Statistics

Representing the forest canopy in atmospheric numerical models should improve simulated winds within and above the canopy up to a few hundred meters above the ground. Here, in this study, we implement a forest canopy parameterization into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in a large-eddy simulation (LES) mode by applying drag forces across multiple layers within the canopy height. We use unique observations from the Lidar Experiments for Assessing Flow over Forests (LEAFF) field campaign at the Wind River Experimental Forest (WREF) in the U.S. Pacific Northwest to evaluate model performance. In a 2-day case study, the canopy parameterization improved wind predictions both within and above the canopy, particularly during the daytime and at finer grid resolution. Without it, winds were frequently overpredicted above the canopy. Similarly, derived quantities such as the wind shear index also yielded estimates closer to observations with the canopy parameterization implemented. These findings suggest that representing the canopy using drag forces alone can improve simulated mean winds up to 200 m above the surface. Furthermore, second-order statistical moments of wind were more sensitive to canopy density than first-order moments, especially during the daytime. This increased sensitivity and the improved daytime performance in wind speed—evidenced by the lowest bias from observations (3% compared to 20% over diurnal cycle)—imply that winds above the canopy layer are strongly influenced by how well turbulence above the canopy is modeled. The results of this study can serve as a foundation for parameterizing forest canopy effects in coarser weather forecast models.

Energy - Wind↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sea Surface Salinity Reemergence in an Updated North Atlantic In Situ Salinity Dataset

Monthly sea surface salinity (SSS) fields are constructed from observations, using objective mapping on a 1° x 1° grid in the Atlantic between 30°S and 50°N in the 1970-2016 period in an update of the dataset of Reverdin et al. Data coverage is heterogeneous, with increased density in 2002 when Argo floats become available, high density along Voluntary Observing Ship lines, and low density south of 10°S. Using lag correlation, the seasonal reemergence of SSS anomalies is investigated between 20° and 50°N in 5° x 5° boxes during the 1993-2016 period, both locally and remotely following the displacements of the deep mixed-layer waters estimated from virtual float trajectories derived from the daily AVISO surface geostrophic currents. Although SSS data are noisy, local SSS reemergence is detected in about half of the boxes, notably in the northeast and southeast, while little reemergence is seen in the central and part of the eastern subtropical gyre. In the same period, sea surface temperature (SST) reemergence is found only slightly more frequently, reflecting the short data duration. However, taking geostrophic advection into account degrades the detection of remote SSS and even SST reemergence. When anomalies are averaged over broader areas, robust evidence of a second and third SSS reemergence peak is found in the northeastern and southeastern parts of the domain, indicating long cold-season persistence of large-scale SSS anomalies, while only a first SST reemergence is seen. Finally, an oceanic reanalysis is used to confirm that the correlation analysis indeed reflects the reemergence of subsurface salinity anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking the performance of uncertainty quantification methods for neural network-based interatomic potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (ML-IAPs) continue to gain popularity as accurate, computationally efficient replacements for traditional, physics-based interatomic potentials and expensive ab initio methods. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML-IAPs is a growing area of research as UQ is critical in many applications of IAPs, such as developing curated datasets, active learning-based data augmentation, self-improving models, and estimating the uncertainty of molecular dynamics simulations. In this paper, we construct and benchmark a series of different neural network potentials (NNPs) with varying network architectures to determine the performance of these models with respect to both the mean and uncertainty calibration error. Each NNP method is specifically designed to predict either epistemic or aleatoric uncertainty with particular focus on the differences in behavior between the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty estimates. We benchmark these methods using multiple datasets common in the ML-IAP literature. The results show that the aleatoric uncertainty from single-shot model architectures is a competitive alternative to ensemble-based epistemic uncertainty predictions in regions of sufficient data-density. However, in regions where the representative data is sparse, aleatoric uncertainty models tend to overpredict and epistemic methods tend to underpredict the actual model error. We conclude that the type of UQ is crucial when discussing performance of probabilistic model results as different methods have different performance characteristics depending on the regime in which they are evaluated. Therefore, the type of UQ method should be carefully evaluated against both the data characteristics and requirements for the intended application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗