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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

Operational Focused Data Analytics for Optimizing Radiation Portal Monitor-Based Nuclear Smuggling Detection Systems at Global Ports of Entry

The National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence has deployed a fleet of radiation portal monitors (RPMs) across the world at global ports of entry including seaports, airports, and land border crossings. These RPMs are integrated into radiation detection systems (RDS) that also include fixed cameras, optical character recognition (OCR) systems, primary scanning systems (e.g., X-ray or gamma-ray), and secondary scanning systems (e.g., spectroscopic radiation portal monitors, portable radiation detection systems). The data from these sensing technologies is collected at the Central Alarm Station (CAS) where servers and computers reside to control and operate the system. Operators utilize the data collected by the CAS and declared cargo information to make decisions on how to respond to an alarm.This work explores the use of CAS-located data, looking at both the sensor data streams and operator inputs, to perform analysis which supports customs and border protection agencies to improve training capability and operational effectiveness. We focus on analyzing site level effectiveness and behavior by rolling up CAS-located data collected from individual occurrences. To-date, more than 15 sites (e.g., seaports, airports, border crossings) have been analyzed in this manner with the goal of understanding system operations to verify effectiveness and recommend potential improvements. This work first aims to provide background information on relevant CAS-located data sources and our current operational system analytics process including example results. After summarizing our current analytic techniques, we discuss how the future data analytics systems can provide key benefits to improving operational performance while minimizing the burden these detection systems place on operators.

Kuhn, Michael↗

Use of Preliminary PRA to Inform Decisions During Initial NASA Gateway Development

How do you use Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to support a program in development before designs are even known? Traditional PRAs require detailed design information and early in a program life cycle such information is not available. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety and Mission Assurance (SMA) developed a preliminary PRA for the Gateway Program based upon NASA reference designs utilizing data and models from pervious PRA studies as surrogates for the Gateway systems. Gateway will be a lunar outpost that supports missions to the moon and includes several elements/modules developed by NASA and International Partners. NASA SMA began supporting Gateway in fall 2017 during initial formulation and continues to support the Gateway Program today. This paper will explore how the NASA SMA developed preliminary PRA was used to inform Gateway Program decisions with specific examples provided.

PRA↗

Use of Preliminary PRA to Inform Decisions During Initial NASA Gateway Development

How do you use Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to support a program in development before designs are even known? Traditional PRAs require detailed design information and early in a program life cycle such information is not available. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety and Mission Assurance (SMA) developed a preliminary PRA for the Gateway Program based upon NASA reference designs utilizing data and models from previous PRA studies as surrogates for the Gateway systems. Gateway will be a lunar outpost that supports missions to the moon and includes several elements/modules developed by NASA and International Partners. NASA SMA began supporting Gateway in fall 2017 during initial formulation and continues to support the Gateway Program today. This paper will explore how the NASA SMA developed preliminary PRA was used to inform Gateway Program decisions with specific examples provided.

PRA↗

Assessing the Reliability Benefits of Energy Storage as a Transmission Asset

Utilizing energy storage solutions to reduce the need for traditional transmission investments has been recognized by system planners and supported by federal policies in recent years. This work demonstrates the need for detailed reliability assessment for quantitative comparison of the reliability benefits of energy storage and traditional transmission investments. First, a mixed-integer linear programming expansion planning model considering candidate transmission lines and storage technologies is solved to find the least-cost investment decisions. Next, operations under the resulting system configuration are simulated in a probabilistic reliability assessment which accounts for weather-dependent forced outages. The outcome of this work, when applied to TPPs, is to further equalize the consideration of energy storage compared to traditional transmission assets by capturing the value of storage for system reliability.

co-optimization↗

Local Weather Station Design and Development for Cost-Effective Environmental Monitoring and Real-Time Data Sharing

Current weather monitoring systems often remain out of reach for small-scale users and local communities due to their high costs and complexity. This paper addresses this significant issue by introducing a cost-effective, easy-to-use local weather station. Utilizing low-cost sensors, this weather station is a pivotal tool in making environmental monitoring more accessible and user-friendly, particularly for those with limited resources. It offers efficient in-site measurements of various environmental parameters, such as temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, carbon dioxide concentration, and particulate matter, including PM 1, PM 2.5, and PM 10. The findings demonstrate the station’s capability to monitor these variables remotely and provide forecasts with a high degree of accuracy, displaying an error margin of just 0.67%. Furthermore, the station’s use of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model enables short-term, reliable forecasts crucial for applications in agriculture, transportation, and air quality monitoring. Furthermore, the weather station’s open-source nature significantly enhances environmental monitoring accessibility for smaller users and encourages broader public data sharing. With this approach, crucial in addressing climate change challenges, the station empowers communities to make informed decisions based on real-time data. In designing and developing this low-cost, efficient monitoring system, this work provides a valuable blueprint for future advancements in environmental technologies, emphasizing sustainability. The proposed automatic weather station not only offers an economical solution for environmental monitoring but also features a user-friendly interface for seamless data communication between the sensor platform and end users. This system ensures the transmission of data through various web-based platforms, catering to users with diverse technical backgrounds. Furthermore, by leveraging historical data through the ARIMA model, the station enhances its utility in providing short-term forecasts and supporting critical decision-making processes across different sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Overview: Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA)

Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA) is a decision support tool to assist airline ramp controllers and ATC tower controllers to manage traffic on the airport surface to significantly improve efficiency and predictability in surface operations. The core function of the tool is the runway scheduler which generates an optimal solution for runway sequence and schedule of departure aircraft, which would minimize system delay and maximize runway throughput. The presentation describes the concept of the SARDA tool and results from human-in-the-loop simulations conducted in 2012 for DallasFt. Worth International Airport. The presentation also explains the latest status of NASA's current surface research through a collaboration with an airline partner. The presentation concludes with a discussion on other on-going as well as future surface research.

decision support tool↗

Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) via Two-Timescale Control in Unbalanced Power Distribution Systems

Voltage control devices are employed in power distribution systems to reduce the power consumption by operating the system closer to the lower acceptable voltage limits; this technique is called conservation voltage reduction (CVR). The different modes of operation for system’s legacy devices (with binary control) and new devices (e.g. smart inverters with continuous control) coupled with variable photovoltaic (PV) generation results in voltage fluctuations which makes it challenging to achieve CVR objective. This paper presents a two-timescale control of feeder’s voltage control devices to achieve CVR that includes (1)a centralized controller operating in a slower time-scale to coordinate voltage control devices across the feeder and (2) local controllers operating in a faster timescale to mitigate voltage fluctuations due to PV variability. The centralized controller utilizes a three-phase optimal power flow model to obtain the decision variables for both legacy devices and smart inverters. The local controllers operate smart inverters to minimize voltage fluctuations and restore nodal voltages to their reference values by adjusting the reactive power support. The proposed approach is validated using the IEEE-123 bus (medium-size) and R3-12.47-2 (large-size) feeders. It is demonstrated that the proposed approach is effective in achieving the CVR objective for unbalanced distribution systems.

optimal control, distributed generation, fluctuati↗

A Decision Support Framework for Grid-Aware Electric Bus Charge Scheduling

While there are many advantages to electric public transit vehicles, they also pose new challenges for fleet operators. One key challenge is defining a charge scheduling policy that minimizes operating costs and power grid disruptions while maintaining schedule adherence. An uncoordinated policy could result in some buses running out of charge before completing their trip, while a grid agnostic policy might incur higher energy costs or cause an adverse impact on the grid’s distribution system. We present a grid aware decision-theoretic framework for electric bus charge scheduling that accounts for energy price, grid load, and bus status. The framework connects environmental models for traffic (SUMO) and the electric grid (GridLAB-D) to a planner, which evaluates bus charging decisions with regard to their long-term effect on grid reliability and cost. The framework has been evaluated on a simulation of Richland, WA’s bus and grid network, and compared to greedy methods.

EV, machine leaning, EV-Grid, Transportation, Grid↗

Development and assessment of prognosis digital twin in a NAMAC system

The nearly autonomous management and control (NAMAC) system is a comprehensive control system to assist plant operations by furnishing control recommendations to operators. Prognosis digital twin (DT-P) is a critical component in NAMAC for predicting action effects and supporting NAMAC decision-making during normal and accident scenarios. To quantifying and reducing uncertainty of machine-learning-based DT-Ps in multi-step predictions, this work investigates and derives insights from the application of three techniques for optimizing the performance of DT-P by long short-term memory recurrent neural networks, including manual search, sequential model-based optimization, and physics-guided machine learning. Finally, sequential model-based optimization and physics-guide machine learning result in smallest errors when the predicting transients are similar to the training data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Hosting downscaled decision-relevant community data products in ESGF2-US

As regionally-relevant high-resolution Earth system data is increasingly relied upon across scientific, policy, and practitioner communities, there is an urgent need for coordinated and federated infrastructure to store, manage, standardize, and distribute decision-relevant community data products. Substantial effort is required to ensure that these products, which are often critical for regional impact assessments and decision-making, are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable. The Earth System Grid Federation US project (ESGF2-US) is addressing this challenge by expanding its open-source, distributed platform to support the hosting and dissemination of downscaled Earth system datasets. This expansion includes aligning new downscaled datasets with developing community standards for metadata and file structure, consistent with existing ESGF archives. This includes ensuring CF-compliance, applying CMORization where appropriate, and developing tools to streamline user access. In this paper, we highlight the technical and coordination work required to bring downscaled data into ESGF2-US and aim to inform the broader Earth system data user community about the growing availability and utility of these curated resources.

ESGF↗

Machine learning of factors for improving oyster hatchery production

Oyster aquaculture and restoration in the Chesapeake Bay are vital, yet hatcheries frequently struggle with inconsistent larval growth and sudden mass mortality events. Unpredictable disruptions in larval production cause large economic losses, represent a perceived risk to growers, and impede industry expansion. To better understand associations between production yield and its potential predictors, we applied machine learning (random forest, and neural network) and statistical (generalized additive model) models to a comprehensive dataset of environmental, water quality, and operational parameters from a Maryland oyster hatchery, aiming to identify key yield predictors and develop a robust forecasting tool. We used recursive Boruta algorithm for variable selection, pinpointing critical predictors, and employed cross-validation to fine-tune model settings. Shapley value analysis offered crucial insights into model interpretations, highlighting week number, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, salinity, turbidity, and fecundity as primary drivers of yield variability. For low-yield cases, salinity-related variables were particularly important. Our findings provide an early warning system for potential production downturns, empowering hatchery operators to make data-driven decisions for optimizing water conditions, feeding schedules, and broodstock management. By boosting predictability and efficiency, this research directly supports economic stability of the oyster industry and ecological health of the Chesapeake Bay.

Vishwakarma, Srishti [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗

CRiSPPy: An advanced hydropower scheduling tool for the Colorado River Storage Project

The Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) plays a vital role in delivering reliable and cost-effective hydroelectric power to millions of customers across the western United States. The Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) carries out WAPA’s mission in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Wyoming and Texas. Achieving this mission requires effective management of the Colorado River system, and depends on the use of advanced analytical tools and modeling methodologies. For many years, CRSP has relied on the Generation and Transmission Maximization Superlite (GTMax SL) model for its mid-term and long-term hydroscheduling needs. However, the evolving energy market, power system operations, environmental rules, and hydrology conditions, coupled with advancements in computational capabilities, have necessitated the development of a more modern and robust solution. This report introduces the Colorado River Storage Project Python-based (CRiSPPy) model, a new, advanced hydropower scheduling tool developed to address CRSP ever-evolving challenges. CRiSPPy represents a significant leap forward in our ability to model and optimize the operation of the Colorado River system. It incorporates state-of-the-art optimization algorithms, enhanced data management capabilities, and an advanced graphical user interface, providing WAPA CRSP personnel with unprecedented insights and decision-making support. This document details the development, capabilities, and implementation of CRiSPPy. It is intended to serve as a comprehensive resource for WAPA staff, stakeholders, and anyone interested in the future of hydropower scheduling in the Colorado River Basin. We are confident that CRiSPPy will enhance WAPA's mission while adapting to the challenges of a dynamic and increasingly complex environment. The version of CRiSPPy described in this report is the version 2.3. New versions of CRiSPPy will be developed as the tool keeps evolving to address CRSP challenges.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Automation technology using Geographic Information System (GIS)

Airport Surface Movement Area is but one of the actions taken to increase the capacity and safety of existing airport facilities. The System Integration Branch (SIB) has designed an integrated system consisting of an electronic moving display in the cockpit, and includes display of taxi routes which will warn controllers and pilots of the position of other traffic and warning information automatically. Although, this system has in test simulation proven to be accurate and helpful; the initial process of obtaining an airport layout of the taxi-routes and designing each of them is a very tedious and time-consuming process. Other methods of preparing the display maps are being researched. One such method is the use of the Geographical Information System (GIS). GIS is an integrated system of computer hardware and software linking topographical, demographic and other resource data that is being referenced. The software can support many areas of work with virtually unlimited information compatibility due to the system's open architecture. GIS will allow us to work faster with increased efficiency and accuracy while providing decision making capabilities. GIS is currently being used at the Langley Research Center with other applications and has been validated as an accurate system for that task. GIS usage for our task will involve digitizing aerial photographs of the topology for each taxi-runway and identifying each position according to its specific spatial coordinates. The information currently being used can be integrated with the GIS system, due to its ability to provide a wide variety of user interfaces. Much more research and data analysis will be needed before this technique will be used, however we are hopeful this will lead to better usage of man-power and technological capabilities for the future.

Brooks, Cynthia L.↗

Core Modeling & Decision Support Capabilities: FASTSim, RouteE, T3CO & OpenPATH

These are the slides on NREL's Core Modeling and Decision Support Capabilities project for presentation at the 2023 Annual Merit Review for the U.S. Department of Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office. The project is funded by the Energy-Efficient Mobility Systems program to support four core tools: the Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim), the Route Energy Prediction Model (RouteE), the Transportation Technology Total Cost of Ownership (T3CO) tool, and the Open Platform for Agile Trip Heuristics (OpenPATH).

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

Gilkey, Kelly M.↗

General Aviation Pilots' Perceived Usage and Valuation of Aviation Weather Information Sources

Aviation suffers many accidents due to the lack of good weather information in flight. Existing aviation weather information is difficult to obtain when it is most needed and is not well formatted for in-flight use. Because it is generally presented aurally, aviation weather information is difficult to integrate with spatial flight information and retain for reference. Efforts, by NASA's Aviation Weather Information (AWIN) team and others, to improve weather information accessibility, usability and decision aiding will enhance General Aviation (GA) pilots' weather situation awareness and decision-making and therefore should improve the safety of GA flight. Consideration of pilots' economic concerns will ensure that in-flight weather information systems are financially accessible to GA pilots as well. The purpose of this survey was to describe how aviation operator communities gather and use weather information as well as how weather related decisions are made between flight crews and supporting personnel. Pilots of small GA aircraft experience the most weather-related accidents as well as the most fatal weather related accident. For this reason, the survey design and advertisement focused on encouraging participation from GA pilots. Perhaps as a result of this emphasis, most responses, 97 responses or 85% of the entire response set, were from GA pilots, This paper presents only analysis of these GA pilots' responses. The insights provided by this survey regarding GA pilots' perceived value and usage of current aviation weather information. services, and products provide a basis for technological approaches to improve GA safety. Results of this survey are discussed in the context of survey limitations and prior work, and serve as the foundation for a model of weather information value, guidance for the design of in-flight weather information systems, and definition of further research toward their development.

Latorella, Kara↗

Measuring labor productivity dynamics in U.S. industrial and electric power sectors: a case study (2014–2023)

This study proposes a subsystem methodology for measuring labor productivity in the U.S. industrial and electric power sectors by leveraging public data available between 2014 and 2023. Building on Pasinetti’s framework and subsequent developments, the approach employs Vertically Integrated Sectors (VIS) to account for both direct and indirect productivity effects. The novelty of this work is twofold. First, it enables the estimation of productivity trends over time, providing a robust foundation for empirical analysis. Second, it applies the methodology to a case study of the electric generation sector, highlighting its practical relevance. Using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN) tool, the study reveals significant discrepancies between conventional productivity measures and those derived from the VIS approach. Furthermore, the proposed method aligns with the principles of Integrated Energy Systems by capturing the interrelations among generation, distribution, storage, and consumption. This alignment underscores its utility and applications for energy-related policy and planning. Overall, the findings contribute to more precise labor productivity assessments, supporting informed decision-making and future research. Additionally, the method highlights the importance of considering the whole supply chain, providing interrelated metrics for labor productivity which includes both, direct and indirect effects on the final labor productivity metric. By incorporating intersectoral dependencies, this method offers a more comprehensive and accurate measure of labor productivity compared to traditional metrics.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Resource Adequacy for State Utility Regulators: Current Practices and Emerging Reforms

This report was developed by staff in the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) Center for Partnerships and Innovation (CPI). Additional support was provided from commissioners, commission staff, and other technical experts to provide foundational information for state utility regulators on the evolving nature of resource adequacy for the electric system. With the changing nature of the system, state commissioners will continue to play a vital role in their respective jurisdictions. Their roles in overseeing resource decisions are growing in complexity, with consideration for customer costs, state and federal environmental requirements, extreme weather events, fuel supply limitations, generation retirements, shifting requirements for system operators, and growing levels of intermittent and energy-limited resources (e.g., wind, solar, and battery storage). Reliability concerns continue to be an urgent and immediate priority for utility regulators in most parts of the United States. The information in this report is designed to support state commissioners and their respective staff members as they navigate an evolving resource adequacy landscape to maintain reliability amidst a rapidly changing system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗