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NASA NTRS2000

Forecasting disease risk for increased epidemic preparedness in public health

Emerging infectious diseases pose a growing threat to human populations. Many of the world's epidemic diseases (particularly those transmitted by intermediate hosts) are known to be highly sensitive to long-term changes in climate and short-term fluctuations in the weather. The application of environmental data to the study of disease offers the capability to demonstrate vector-environment relationships and potentially forecast the risk of disease outbreaks or epidemics. Accurate disease forecasting models would markedly improve epidemic prevention and control capabilities. This chapter examines the potential for epidemic forecasting and discusses the issues associated with the development of global networks for surveillance and prediction. Existing global systems for epidemic preparedness focus on disease surveillance using either expert knowledge or statistical modelling of disease activity and thresholds to identify times and areas of risk. Predictive health information systems would use monitored environmental variables, linked to a disease system, to be observed and provide prior information of outbreaks. The components and varieties of forecasting systems are discussed with selected examples, along with issues relating to further development.

Disease Outbreaks↗

NASA NTRS2004

The EOS-Aura Mission

The EOS-Aura atmospheric chemistry mission is scheduled for launch in June 2004. Aura is the third of the large EOS observatories. The spacecraft carries an international instrument payload that has a planned six year lifetime. The Aura mission will collect data to help answer stratospheric and tropospheric atmospheric chemistry questions. The mission has the following four major objectives: 1) Track the ozone layer to determine if it is recovering as predicted. The four Aura instruments, HIRDLS, OMI, MLS, and TES will measure ozone, key source, radical, reservoir, tracer gases, and aerosols. Aura's unique design allows for major ozone controlling gases to be measured within the same air mass within a few minutes. The OMI instrument will continue the trends fiom NASA's TOMS series. 2) Track tropospheric pollutant sources and measure tropospheric ozone precursors. Major pollution sources include urban, industrial and biomass burning regions. Tropospheric trace gases will be measured, using TES and OMI, at an average spatial resolution of about approximately 15 km with near global coverage. 3) Measure key upper tropospheric atmospheric constituents that influence climate. The Aura instruments will monitor O3, H2O, CO, cirrus ice, and aerosols. EOS-Aura will fly in a sun-synchronous polar orbit about 15 minutes behind Aqua and make near coincident and synergistic measurements with the EOS- Aqua, Cloudsat, OCO, PARASOL and Calipso missions. Aura launched July 15,2004.

Schoeberl, Mark R.↗

NASA NTRS2005

The EOS-Aura Mission

The EOS-Aura atmospheric chemistry mission is scheduled for launch in June 2004. Aura is the third of the large EOS observatories. The spacecraft carries an international instrument payload that has a planned six year lifetime. The Aura mission will collect data to help answer stratospheric and tropospheric atmospheric chemistry questions. The mission has the following four major objectives: 1) Track the ozone layer to determine if it is recovering as predicted. The four Aura instruments, HIRDLS, OMI, MLS, and TES will measure ozone, key source, radical, reservoir, tracer gases, and aerosols. Aura's unique design allows for major ozone controlling gases to be measured within the same air mass within a few minutes. The OMI instrument will continue the trends from NASA's TOMS series. 2) Track tropospheric pollutant sources and measure tropospheric ozone precursors. Major pollution sources include urban, industrial and biomass burning regions. Tropospheric trace gases will be measured, using TES and OMI, at an average spatial resolution of about approx. 15 km with near global coverage. 3) Measure key upper tropospheric atmospheric constituents that influence climate. The Aura instruments will monitor O3, H2O, CO, cirrus ice, and aerosols. EOS-Aura will fly in a sun-synchronous polar orbit about 15 minutes behind Aqua and make near coincident and synergistic measurements with the EOS-Aqua, Cloudsat, OCO, PARASOL and Calipso missions. Aura launched July 15,2004.

Schoeberl, Mark R.↗

NASA NTRS2007

The X-43A Six Degree of Freedom Monte Carlo Analysis

This report provides an overview of the Hyper-X research vehicle Monte Carlo analysis conducted with the six-degree-of-freedom simulation. The methodology and model uncertainties used for the Monte Carlo analysis are presented as permitted. In addition, the process used to select hardware validation test cases from the Monte Carlo data is described. The preflight Monte Carlo analysis indicated that the X-43A control system was robust to the preflight uncertainties and provided the Hyper-X project an important indication that the vehicle would likely be successful in accomplishing the mission objectives. The X-43A in-flight performance is compared to the preflight Monte Carlo predictions and shown to exceed the Monte Carlo bounds in several instances. Possible modeling shortfalls are presented that may account for these discrepancies. The flight control laws and guidance algorithms were robust enough as a result of the preflight Monte Carlo analysis that the unexpected in-flight performance did not have undue consequences. Modeling and Monte Carlo analysis lessons learned are presented.

Baumann, Ethan↗

NASA NTRS2010

Real-Time Dynamic Modeling - Data Information Requirements and Flight Test Results

Practical aspects of identifying dynamic models for aircraft in real time were studied. Topics include formulation of an equation-error method in the frequency domain to estimate non-dimensional stability and control derivatives in real time, data information content for accurate modeling results, and data information management techniques such as data forgetting, incorporating prior information, and optimized excitation. Real-time dynamic modeling was applied to simulation data and flight test data from a modified F-15B fighter aircraft, and to operational flight data from a subscale jet transport aircraft. Estimated parameter standard errors, prediction cases, and comparisons with results from a batch output-error method in the time domain were used to demonstrate the accuracy of the identified real-time models.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Step Beyond Simple Keyword Searches: Services Enabled by a Full Content Digital Journal Archive

The problems of managing and searching large archives of scientific journal articles can potentially be addressed through data mining and statistical techniques matured primarily for quantitative scientific data analysis. A journal paper could be represented by a multivariate descriptor, e.g., the occurrence counts of a number key technical terms or phrases (keywords), perhaps derived from a controlled vocabulary ( e . g . , the American Meteorological Society's Glossary of Meteorology) or bootstrapped from the journal archive itself. With this technique, conventional statistical classification tools can be leveraged to address challenges faced by both scientists and professional societies in knowledge management. For example, cluster analyses can be used to find bundles of "most-related" papers, and address the issue of journal bifurcation (when is a new journal necessary, and what topics should it encompass). Similarly, neural networks can be trained to predict the optimal journal (within a society's collection) in which a newly submitted paper should be published. Comparable techniques could enable very powerful end-user tools for journal searches, all premised on the view of a paper as a data point in a multidimensional descriptor space, e.g.: "find papers most similar to the one I am reading", "build a personalized subscription service, based on the content of the papers I am interested in, rather than preselected keywords", "find suitable reviewers, based on the content of their own published works", etc. Such services may represent the next "quantum leap" beyond the rudimentary search interfaces currently provided to end-users, as well as a compelling value-added component needed to bridge the print-to-digital-medium gap, and help stabilize professional societies' revenue stream during the print-to-digital transition.

Boccippio, Dennis J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Determination of Ballistic Limit for IM7/8552 Using LS-DYNA MAT 261

The goal of the NASA ACC High Energy Dynamic Impact Project is to determine the state of the art of dynamic fracture simulations for high velocity impact for composite fuselage shielding applications. Using a building block approach, several computational models considered under NASA ACC are being validated against test data, starting at unconfigured panels and progressing to configured panels under combined out-of-plane and in-plane loading due to ballistic impact. The computational models being evaluated in this project include MAT 162, MAT 213, MAT 261, SPG, and Peridynamics. In this paper, the simulation results using LS-Dyna Material MAT 261 are presented. In particular, a series of blind predictions for unconfigured panels were performed to determine the ballistic limit or V50 velocity. MAT 261 employs failure approach that is generally physically-based using fracture toughness criteria. The overall material model relies on typical ply-level stiffness properties, similar to MAT 162 and other composite continuum damage material models. The fracture toughness values are based on standard tests, and thus are not subject to extensive calibration. This approach is more efficient than performing extensive optimization studies for calibration of parameters. Also, this approach of relying on physical properties reduces the uncertainty of results, as questions concerning the quality and extent of the calibration studies is no longer relevant. However, it was found that carefully controlled coupon-level tests are needed to accurately obtain the required fracture toughness values. Additionally, it should be noted that there is one significant parameter in MAT 261 that does appear to require calibration, and that is the overall failure strain. This is the strain at which the element is deleted, and is not the same as the strain at which damage begins to accumulate. This failure strain is termed EFS (Effective Failure Strain), and is the maximum effective stain for element failure. Simulations have shown that this value will significantly affect impact response and failure. The paper presents the effect of this element failure strain parameter, along with possible uncertainties in fracture toughness values. With an adjusted appropriate value for EFS, it is seen that simulation results compare well with impact test data for predicted penetration velocity.

Byar, Alan↗

NASA NTRS1982

NASA Deep Space Network operating control

The primary function of the Deep Space Network (DSN) is to provide effective and reliable tracking and data acquisition for planetary and interplanetary space flight missions. This involves providing data to flight project mission operations, accepting commands from mission operations and transmitting the commands to stations and spacecraft, and providing a record of telemetry and command data to mission operations. Also included are network performance monitoring, the generation of predictions for antenna pointing and signal acquisition, network scheduling, and network validation tests. Descriptions are given of the three facilities and six systems of the DSN. Also described are interfaces, automation and standardized procedures, and discrepancy reporting. It is pointed out that the greatest challenge facing the DSN is the implementation of NASA's Network Consolidation Program, which is scheduled to be completed in 1986. The objectives of this program are enumerated.

Weisman, W. D.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Estimation of Stability and Control Derivatives of an F-15

A technique for real-time estimation of stability and control derivatives (derivatives of moment coefficients with respect to control-surface deflection angles) was used to support a flight demonstration of a concept of an indirect-adaptive intelligent flight control system (IFCS). Traditionally, parameter identification, including estimation of stability and control derivatives, is done post-flight. However, for the indirect-adaptive IFCS concept, parameter identification is required during flight so that the system can modify control laws for a damaged aircraft. The flight demonstration was carried out on a highly modified F-15 airplane (see Figure 1). The main objective was to estimate the stability and control derivatives of the airplane in nearly real time. A secondary goal was to develop a system to automatically assess the quality of the results, so as to be able to tell a learning neural network which data to use. Parameter estimation was performed by use of Fourier-transform regression (FTR) a technique developed at NASA Langley Research Center. FTR is an equation- error technique that operates in the frequency domain. Data are put into the frequency domain by use of a recursive Fourier transform for a discrete frequency set. This calculation simplifies many subsequent calculations, removes biases, and automatically filters out data beyond the chosen frequency range. FTR as applied here was tailored to work with pilot inputs, which produce correlated surface positions that prevent accurate parameter estimates, by replacing half the derivatives with predicted values. FTR was also set up to work only on a recent window of data, to accommodate changes in flight condition. A system of confidence measures was developed to identify quality-parameter estimates that a learning neural network could use. This system judged the estimates primarily on the basis of their estimated variances and of the level of aircraft response. The resulting FTR system was implemented in the Simulink software system and auto-coded in the C programming language for use on the Airborne Research Test System (ARTS II) computer installed in the F-15 airplane. The Simulink model was also used in a control room that utilizes the Ring Buffered Network Bus hardware and software, making it possible to evaluate test points during flights. In-flight parameter estimation was done for piloted and automated maneuvers, primarily at three test conditions. Figure 2 shows results for pitching moment due to symmetric stabilator actuations for a series of three pitch doublet maneuvers (in a doublet maneuver, a command to change attitude in a given direction by a given amount is followed immediately by a command to change attitude in the opposite direction by the same amount). A time window of 5 seconds was used. The portions of the curves shown in red are those that passed the confidence tests. The technique showed good convergence for most derivatives for both kinds of maneuvers - typically within a few seconds. The confidence tests were marginally successful, and it would be necessary to refine them for use in an IFCS.

Smith, Mark↗

NASA NTRS1973

Extravehicular mobility unit thermal simulator

The analytical methods, thermal model, and user's instructions for the SIM bay extravehicular mobility unit (EMU) routine are presented. This digital computer program was developed for detailed thermal performance predictions of the crewman performing a command module extravehicular activity during transearth coast. It accounts for conductive, convective, and radiative heat transfer as well as fluid flow and associated flow control components. The program is a derivative of the Apollo lunar surface EMU digital simulator. It has the operational flexibility to accept card or magnetic tape for both the input data and program logic. Output can be tabular and/or plotted and the mission simulation can be stopped and restarted at the discretion of the user. The program was developed for the NASA-JSC Univac 1108 computer system and several of the capabilities represent utilization of unique features of that system. Analytical methods used in the computer routine are based on finite difference approximations to differential heat and mass balance equations which account for temperature or time dependent thermo-physical properties.

Hixon, C. W.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Transport aircraft flying qualities activities

The optimal control model for pilot vehicle systems was used to develop a methodology for predicting pilot ratings for commercial transports. The method was tested by applying it to a family of transport configurations for which subjective pilot ratings were obtained. Specific attention is given to the development of the simulator program and procedures so as to yield objective and subjective performance data useful for a critical evaluation of the analytical method.

Moul, M. T.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Dynamic models for simulation of the 70-M antenna axis servos

Dynamic models for the various functional elements of the 70 m antenna axis servos are described. The model representing the digital position controller, the linear and nonlinear properties of the physical hardware, and the dynamics of the flexible antenna structure are encoded in six major function blocks. The general modular structure of the function blocks facilitates their adaptation to a variety of dynamic simulation studies. Model parameter values were calculated from component specifications and design data. A simulation using the models to predict limit cycle behavior produced results in excellent agreement with field test data from the DSS 14 70-m antenna.

Hill, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The distribution of large volcanoes on Venus as a function of height and altitude

Theory predicts that the slower cooling of lava flows on Venus should result in lava flows that are typically 20 percent longer than their terrestrial counterparts and that the development of neutral buoyancy zones (NBZ) on Venus may be strongly influenced by altitude-controlled variations in surface pressure. Observations that support these predictions would include relatively low heights for Venus volcanoes, and an increase in both the number and development of large edifices with increasing basal altitude. The results of an analysis of the height and altitude distribution of 123 large (diameter greater than 100 km) volcanoes made using Magellan image and altimetry data are presented and these results are used to begin to test the predications of the above theories.

Keddie, S. T.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Effect of wake structure on blade-vortex interaction phenomena: Acoustic prediction and validation

During the Higher Harmonic Control Aeroacoustic Rotor Test, extensive measurements of the rotor aerodynamics, the far-field acoustics, the wake geometry, and the blade motion for powered, descent, flight conditions were made. These measurements have been used to validate and improve the prediction of blade-vortex interaction (BVI) noise. The improvements made to the BVI modeling after the evaluation of the test data are discussed. The effects of these improvements on the acoustic-pressure predictions are shown. These improvements include restructuring the wake, modifying the core size, incorporating the measured blade motion into the calculations, and attempting to improve the dynamic blade response. A comparison of four different implementations of the Ffowcs Williams and Hawkings equation is presented. A common set of aerodynamic input has been used for this comparison.

Gallman, Judith M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Modeling of Horns for Sonic/Ultrasonic Applications

JPL has a requirement for telerobotic tools for planetary sample acquisition, which require low power and have the ability to work in harsh environments. We are currently investigating the possibility of using ultrasonic horns to develop a family of ultrasonic tools for these environments. In an effort to determine control parameters a one-dimensional Mason's model for a stepped ultrasonic horn assembly was developed which includes the effects of mechanical and electrical losses in the piezoelectric material and acoustic elements. The model is separated into three regions; the piezoelectric stack including stress bolt the backing layer and the horn. The model is found to predict the impedance data of the horn assembly very accurately up to the first coupled (radial) resonance. The model also allows for the calculation of the velocity and force and power delivered to each acoustic element. FEM modeling and accelerometer data from the horn tip were used to corroborate the model. The difficulties associated with modeling the load impedance of various devices will be discussed and current directions noted.

Sherrit, Stewart↗

NASA NTRS2009

Impact Testing on Reinforced Carbon-Carbon Flat Panels with Ice Projectiles for the Space Shuttle Return to Flight Program

Following the tragedy of the Orbiter Columbia (STS-107) on February 1, 2003, a major effort commenced to develop a better understanding of debris impacts and their effect on the space shuttle subsystems. An initiative to develop and validate physics-based computer models to predict damage from such impacts was a fundamental component of this effort. To develop the models it was necessary to physically characterize reinforced carbon-carbon (RCC) along with ice and foam debris materials, which could shed on ascent and impact the orbiter RCC leading edges. The validated models enabled the launch system community to use the impact analysis software LS-DYNA (Livermore Software Technology Corp.) to predict damage by potential and actual impact events on the orbiter leading edge and nose cap thermal protection systems. Validation of the material models was done through a three-level approach: Level 1--fundamental tests to obtain independent static and dynamic constitutive model properties of materials of interest, Level 2--subcomponent impact tests to provide highly controlled impact test data for the correlation and validation of the models, and Level 3--full-scale orbiter leading-edge impact tests to establish the final level of confidence for the analysis methodology. This report discusses the Level 2 test program conducted in the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) Ballistic Impact Laboratory with ice projectile impact tests on flat RCC panels, and presents the data observed. The Level 2 testing consisted of 54 impact tests in the NASA GRC Ballistic Impact Laboratory on 6- by 6-in. and 6- by 12-in. flat plates of RCC and evaluated three types of debris projectiles: Single-crystal, polycrystal, and "soft" ice. These impact tests helped determine the level of damage generated in the RCC flat plates by each projectile and validated the use of the ice and RCC models for use in LS-DYNA.

Melis, Matthew E.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Impact Testing on Reinforced Carbon-Carbon Flat Panels With BX-265 and PDL-1034 External Tank Foam for the Space Shuttle Return to Flight Program

Following the tragedy of the Orbiter Columbia (STS-107) on February 1, 2003, a major effort commenced to develop a better understanding of debris impacts and their effect on the space shuttle subsystems. An initiative to develop and validate physics-based computer models to predict damage from such impacts was a fundamental component of this effort. To develop the models it was necessary to physically characterize reinforced carbon-carbon (RCC) along with ice and foam debris materials, which could shed on ascent and impact the orbiter RCC leading edges. The validated models enabled the launch system community to use the impact analysis software LS-DYNA (Livermore Software Technology Corp.) to predict damage by potential and actual impact events on the orbiter leading edge and nose cap thermal protection systems. Validation of the material models was done through a three-level approach: Level 1-fundamental tests to obtain independent static and dynamic constitutive model properties of materials of interest, Level 2-subcomponent impact tests to provide highly controlled impact test data for the correlation and validation of the models, and Level 3-full-scale orbiter leading-edge impact tests to establish the final level of confidence for the analysis methodology. This report discusses the Level 2 test program conducted in the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) Ballistic Impact Laboratory with external tank foam impact tests on flat RCC panels, and presents the data observed. The Level 2 testing consisted of 54 impact tests in the NASA GRC Ballistic Impact Laboratory on 6- by 6-in. and 6- by 12-in. flat plates of RCC and evaluated two types of debris projectiles: BX-265 and PDL-1034 external tank foam. These impact tests helped determine the level of damage generated in the RCC flat plates by each projectile and validated the use of the foam and RCC models for use in LS-DYNA.

Melis, Matthew E.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Large Scale Cryogenic Storage with Active Refrigeration

Storage and transfer of cryogenic liquefied gases on volume scales from under 10 liters for lab use, up to hundreds of millions of liters for industrial applications is of paramount importance across a vast range of industries. Traditionally, these commodities have been stored at or near the normal boiling point due to relative ease of operation and safety-related considerations; however, this also means that some percentage will always be lost due to environmental heat leaking into the vessel and causing boil-off. These losses become more concerning as scales increase, and are of particular importance for high-cost commodities such helium and hydrogen. Additionally, the normal boiling point marks the highest liquid density achievable; which becomes a strong driver of end-use system designs such as space launch vehicles. Recent development and testing of an Integrated Refrigeration and Storage (IRAS) system for liquid hydrogen has proven that next generation cryogenic storage operations such as zero boil-off and densification are feasible on a large scale. This IRAS system married an 850 Watt at 20 Kelvin reverse-Brayton cycle commercial cryogenic refrigerator with a 125,000 liter LH2 storage tank via and internal tubular heat exchanger. This allowed heat to be removed directly from the hydrogen, and by extension, provided a means to control the bulk thermodynamic state. Zero boil-off, in-situ liquefaction, and densification down to the triple point was performed during testing, and data such as fluid temperature profiles and tank pressure were gathered. Details regarding the design, setup, and testing of the IRAS system are discussed herein, and the data used to anchor various physics models created to predict the behavior of the system during transient and steady state operation. It is hoped that these efforts will provide a useful basis for the design and implementation of future large scale IRAS systems across numerous industries.

Swanger, Adam M.↗