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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

3D Reconstruction of a Rotating Erupting Prominence

A bright prominence associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME) was seen erupting from the Sun on 9 April 2008. This prominence was tracked by both the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) EUVI and COR1 telescopes, and was seen to rotate about the line of sight as it erupted; therefore, the event has been nicknamed the "Cartwheel CME." The threads of the prominence in the core of the CME quite clearly indicate the structure of a weakly to moderately twisted flux rope throughout the field of view, up to heliocentric heights of 4 solar radii. Although the STEREO separation was 48 deg, it was possible to match some sharp features in the later part of the eruption as seen in the 304 Angstrom line in EUVI and in the H alpha-sensitive bandpass of COR1 by both STEREO Ahead and Behind. These features could then be traced out in three dimensional space, and reprojected into a view in which the eruption is directed towards the observer. The reconstructed view shows that the alignment of the prominence to the vertical axis rotates as it rises up to a leading-edge height of approximately equals 2.5 solar radii, and then remains approximately constant. The alignment at 2.5 solar radii differs by about 115 deg. from the original filament orientation inferred from H alpha and EUV data, and the height profile of the rotation, obtained here for the first time, shows that two thirds of the total rotation is reached within approximately equals 0.5 solar radii above the photosphere. These features are well reproduced by numerical simulations of an unstable moderately twisted flux rope embedded in external flux with a relatively strong shear field component.

Thompson, W. T.↗

The Entry Descent and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI2) Suite for the Mars 2020 Mission

This presentation will discuss the current state of each of the main measurements systems for MEDLI2. The first system is a network of pressure transducers, the Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS). Improving upon MEDLI, separate MEDLI2 pressure transducers span the measurement range suitable for both hypersonic and supersonic flows. The MEADS will also measure pressure on the backshell of the vehicle to better characterize the contribution of backshell pressure on the overall forces and moments on the entry probe. The second system is the thermal instrumentation, or Mars Instrumented Sensor Plugs. This system includes a network of high-temperature thermocouples embedded in the thermal protection system across the heatshield and backshell. The MISP also includes two types of sensors for directly measuring incident heatflux on the backshell of the vehicle. In addition, a radiometer is included on the backshell to measure radiative heating. The presentation will also cover the current state of the MEDLI2 hardware, expected environments that will be measured, and data analysis techniques being developed to infer vehicle entry performance from both the MISP and MEADS sensor systems.

White, Todd↗

The Effect of Europa and Enceladus Analog Seawater Composition on Isotopic Measurements of Volatile CO2

Science goals for icy ocean worlds missions include characterizing the chemical compositionof the surface and interior using remote sensing and in situ techniques. The next class of flightmass spectrometers for these missions will obtain compositional identifications and isotope ratiomeasurements of volatiles evolved from the ice surface (exosphere) and plumes. These massspectra will be combined with data from other flight instruments to infer the composition of theinterior from volatiles. To ensure accurate interpretation of these measurements, it is critical toverify whether the fundamental assumption that volatiles observed in icy ocean world exospheresor plumes will be a direct reflection of the sub-ice ocean. The present study evaluates whether isotopologues from an initial CO2 gas fractionate by interacting with seawater (brine) of varyingsalt composition and concentration. δ13CCO2 are affected by the pH of the brine and subsequentspeciation of {CO2}, where {CO2} represents the combination of CO2, H2CO3, HCO3-, and CO32-.{CO2} for low pH brines hypothesized for Europa will preferentially speciate as CO2. Analyzedδ13CCO2 for low pH brines are within error of the original δ13CCO2, demonstrating that volatile CO2in a low pH system will be a direct reflection of the original CO2. However, Europa’s radiativeenvironment and rapid depressurization due to plume ejection may impose fractionation effects.In contrast, high pH systems relevant to Enceladus or a more alkaline Europa are expected toform all carbonate species, while favoring speciation as HCO3-. High pH brines in theseexperiments include both an original CO2 gas and an isotopically distinct HCO3- (from NaHCO3salt). These alkaline experiments demonstrate that δ13CCO2 values are highly variable, and dependon the concentration of the dominant carbonate species, (Na)HCO3-. Mass balance estimatesindicate that measured δ13CCO2 is a thermodynamically predictable mixture of both carbonsources, suggesting that measurements of δ13C at Enceladus would directly reflect of the sourcesof CO2 and carbonate buffering in the ocean. δ18O measurements for CO2 interacting with KCland MgCl2 follow established models for δ18O-ionic strength. CO2 interacting with MgSO4,Na2SO4, and NaCl demonstrate an offset from established δ18O-ionic strength models dependingon the concentration of initial CO2. These results suggest that current predictive models for δ18Oin brines need to be resolved for changing concentrations of CO2

Ocean Worlds↗

Post-irradiation Heating Tests of As-Irradiated AGR-3/4 TRISO Fuel Compacts

Four post-irradiation heating tests of fuel compacts from the U.S. Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-3/4 irradiation experiment were completed. In addition to tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated driver fuel, each compact contained designed-to-fail (DTF) particles with fuel kernels coated only in pyrocarbon so as to simulate exposed kernels. Tests at 1600/1700°C, 1400°C, and 1200°C were performed to measure fission product release as a function of time and temperature. Silver release was highest in the 1200°C test, supporting the observation that silver release rates are highest in the 1100–1300°C range. Compared to tests of AGR-1 compacts with no exposed kernels, the Cs-134 and Kr-85 releases were noticeably higher in AGR-3/4. The exposed kernels’ contributions to Eu and Sr release are inconclusive, due to the difficulty in distinguishing among the combined effects of higher irradiation temperatures in these particular AGR-3/4 compacts, the presence of the DTF particles, and the Fuel Accident Condition Simulator (FACS) test temperatures. These data can be used to make inferences about fission product retention in exposed kernels as a function of time and temperature.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

First Estimation of Model Parameters for Neutrino-Induced Nucleon Knockout Using Simulation-Based Inference

To enable an accurate determination of oscillation parameters, accelerator-based neutrino experiments require detailed simulations of nuclear interaction physics in the GeV regime. While substantial effort from both theory and experiment is currently being invested to improve the fidelity of these simulations, their present deficiencies typically oblige experimental collaborations to resort to empirical tuning of simulation model parameters. As the precision requirements of the field continue to become more stringent, machine learning techniques may provide a powerful means of handling corresponding growth in the complexity of future neutrino interaction model tuning exercises. To study the suitability of simulation-based inference (SBI) for this physics application, in this paper we revisit a tuned configuration of the GENIE neutrino event generator that was originally developed by the MicroBooNE collaboration. Despite closely reproducing the adopted values of four physics parameters when confronted with the tuned cross-section predictions as input, we find that our trained SBI algorithm prefers modestly different values (within MicroBooNE's assigned uncertainties) and achieves slightly better goodness-of-fit when inference is run on the experimental data set originally used by MicroBooNE. We also find that our trained algorithm can create a fair approximation of an alternative neutrino scattering simulation, NuWro, that shares only a subset of its physics model parameters with GENIE.

Tame-Narvaez, Karla [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000022249↗

Locating Operational Events of the Cooling Tower of a Nuclear Reactor with a Very Local Seismic Network

Geolocation of emergent seismic signals is challenging at close distances. Here, we used three-component data from a seismic network and a targeted experiment at a research nuclear reactor to locate seismic sources. Utilizing known events collected during the targeted experiment, we were able to infer source locations with seismic amplitudes and polarization characteristics of the data. Although the resolution of the source location is not perfect, the seismic amplitudes and polarization analysis offer useful constraints. For the known events, the source region inferred with our analysis includes the true source locations. Synthetic tests indicate the resolution is largely due to limited data coverage and measurement uncertainties because the synthetic tests show similar results compared with the field data. We identified the source of the unknown event through spectrum cross correlation between the signals from the known events and an unknown event. Our findings were confirmed by operational staff at the facility. When the propagation medium properties (i.e., seismic velocity and quality factor for attenuation) are known, our analysis can be applied to continuous data from a seismic array to infer both source amplitude and location. If the medium properties are not known, a targeted experiment can be conducted to estimate them.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Increasing the power of weak lensing data with multipole-based intrinsic alignment estimators

ABSTRACT It has long been known that galaxy shapes align coherently with the large-scale density field. Characterizing this effect is essential to interpreting measurements of weak gravitational lensing, the deflection of light from distant galaxies by matter overdensities along the line of sight, as it also produces coherent galaxy alignments that we wish to interpret in terms of a cosmological model. Existing direct measurements of intrinsic alignments using galaxy samples with high-quality shape and redshift measurements typically use well-understood but sub-optimal projected estimators, which do not make good use of the information in the data when comparing those estimators to theoretical models. We demonstrate a more optimal estimator, based on a multipole expansion of the correlation functions or power spectra, for direct measurements of galaxy intrinsic alignments. We show that even using the lowest order multipole alone increases the significance of inferred model parameters using simulated and real data, without any additional modelling complexity. We apply this estimator to measurements of parameters of the non-linear alignment model using data from the Sloan Digital Sky survey, demonstrating consistent results with a factor of ∼2 greater precision in parameter fits to intrinsic alignments models. This result is functionally equivalent to quadrupling the survey area, but without the attendant costs – thereby demonstrating the value in using this new estimator in current and future intrinsic alignments measurements using spectroscopic galaxy samples.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

On-chip probabilistic inference for charged-particle tracking at the sensor edge

Modern scientific instruments operate under increasingly extreme constraints on bandwidth, latency, and power. Inference at the sensor edge determines experimental data collection efficiency by deciding which information to save for further analysis. Particle tracking detectors at the Large Hadron Collider exemplify this challenge: pixelated silicon sensors generate rich spatiotemporal ionization patterns, yet most of this information is discarded due to data-rate limitations. Concurrently, advancements in co-design tools provide rapid turn-around for incorporating machine learning into application-specific integrated circuits, motivating designs for particle detectors with new integrated technologies. We demonstrate that neural networks embedded in the front-end electronics can infer charged-particle kinematic parameters from a single silicon layer. We regress hit positions and incident angles with calibrated uncertainties, while satisfying stringent constraints on numerical precision, latency, and silicon area. Our results establish a path toward probabilistic inference directly at the edge, opening new opportunities for intelligent sensing in high-rate scientific instruments.

Das, Arghya Ranjan [Purdue U.] (ORCID:000000018451↗

Bayesian learning of orthogonal embeddings for multi-fidelity Gaussian Processes

Uncertainty propagation in complex engineering systems often poses significant computational challenges related to modeling and quantifying probability distributions of model outputs, as those emerge as the result of various sources of uncertainty that are inherent in the system under investigation. Gaussian Processes regression (GPs) is a robust meta-modeling technique that allows for fast model prediction and exploration of response surfaces. Multi-fidelity variations of GPs further leverage information from cheap and low fidelity model simulations in order to improve their predictive performance on the high fidelity model. In order to cope with the high volume of data required to train GPs in high dimensional design spaces, a common practice is to introduce latent design variables that are typically projections of the original input space to a lower dimensional subspace, and therefore substitute the problem of learning the initial high dimensional mapping, with that of training a GP on a low dimensional space. Here in this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to identify optimal transformations that map the input points to low dimensional latent variables. The \projection" mapping consists of an orthonormal matrix that is considered a priori unknown and needs to be inferred jointly with the GP parameters, conditioned on the available training data. The proposed Bayesian inference scheme relies on a two-step iterative algorithm that samples from the marginal posteriors of the GP parameters and the projection matrix respectively, both using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. In order to take into account the orthogonality constraints imposed on the orthonormal projection matrix, a Geodesic Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is employed, that is suitable for exploiting probability measures on manifolds. We extend the proposed framework to multi-fidelity models using GPs including the scenarios of training multiple outputs together. We validate our framework on three synthetic problems with a known lower-dimensional subspace. The benefits of our proposed framework, are illustrated on the computationally challenging aerodynamic optimization of a last-stage blade for an industrial gas turbine, where we study the effect of an 85-dimensional shape parameterization of a three-dimensional airfoil on two output quantities of interest, specifically on the aerodynamic efficiency and the degree of reaction

42 ENGINEERING↗

Implications of the Utopia Gravity Anomaly for the Resurfacing of the Northern Plains of Mars

Whereas the surface units of the northern plain of Mars generally exhibit ages ranging from late Hesperian to Amazonian, interpretation of precise topographic measurements indicate that the age of the underlying "basement" is early Noachian, or almost as old as the southern highlands. This suggests that widespread but relatively superficial resurfacing has occurred throughout the northern plains since the end of early heavy bombardment. In this abstract I examine some of the possible implications of the subsurface structure inferred for the Utopia basin from gravity data on the nature of this resurfacing. The large, shallow, circular depression in Utopia Planitia has been identified as a huge impact basin, based on both geological evidence and detailed analysis of MOLA topography. Its diameter (approx. 3000 km) is equivalent to that of the Hellas basin, as is its inferred age (early Noachian). However, whereas Hellas is extremely deep with rough terrain and large slopes, the Utopia basin is a smooth, shallow, almost imperceptible bowl. Conversely, Utopia displays one of the largest (non-Tharsis-related) positive geoid anomalies on Mars, in contrast to a much more subdued negative anomaly over Hellas.

Banerdt, W. B.↗

classLog: Logistic regression for the classification of genetic sequences

Introduction Sequencing and phylogenetic classification have become a common task in human and animal diagnostic laboratories. It is routine to sequence pathogens to identify genetic variations of diagnostic significance and to use these data in realtime genomic contact tracing and surveillance. Under this paradigm, unprecedented volumes of data are generated that require rapid analysis to provide meaningful inference. Methods We present a machine learning logistic regression pipeline that can assign classifications to genetic sequence data. The pipeline implements an intuitive and customizable approach to developing a trained prediction model that runs in linear time complexity, generating accurate output rapidly, even with incomplete data. Our approach was benchmarked against porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome virus (PRRSv) and swine H1 influenza A virus (IAV) datasets. Trained classifiers were tested against sequences and simulated datasets that artificially degraded sequence quality at 0, 10, 20, 30, and 40%. Results When applied to a poor-quality sequence data, the classifier achieved between >85% to 95% accuracy for the PRRSv and the swine H1 IAV HA dataset and this increased to near perfect accuracy when using the full dataset. The model also identifies amino acid positions used to determine genetic clade identity through a feature selection ranking within the model. These positions can be mapped onto a maximum-likelihood phylogenetic tree, allowing for the inference of clade defining mutations. Discussion Our approach is implemented as a python package with code available at https://github.com/flu-crew/classLog .

Zeller, Michael A.↗

The GABLE Report: Garbled Autonomous Bots Leveraging Ethereum

Simple but mission-critical internet-based applications that require extremely high reliability and availability could potentially benefit from running on robust public programmable blockchain platforms such as Ethereum. Unfortunately, program code running on such blockchains is ordinarily publicly viewable, rendering these platforms unsuitable for applications requiring strict privacy of application code, data, and results. However, might it be possible to encode an application's business logic and data for these platforms in such a way that it becomes impossible for unauthorized parties to infer any meaningful information whatsoever about the semantics of the data, and the operations being performed on that data? In this report, we describe GABLE (Garbled Autonomous Bots Leveraging Ethereum), a system concept developed at Sandia that achieves this security goal in a limited, but still useful range of circumstances. GABLE, uses simple but effective algorithms to permit secure private execution of garbled state machines (and more efficient garbled circuits) on public computing resources. We give an example working implementation for garbled state machines, written using the Python and Solidity programming languages, and outline how our methods can be extended to support a more powerful garbled universal circuit model of computation. The capability embodied by the GABLE, system has significant potential applications, a few of which we discuss in this report.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Solar-Geophysical Data Number 497, January 1986. Part 1: (Prompt reports). Date for December 1985, November 1985 and late data

Solar-Geophysical Data Number 497, January 1986, Part 1 (prompt reports); Data for December 1985, November 1985 and Late Data contains the Data for December 1985-(IUWDS alert periods (advance and worldwide), solar activity indices, Solar flares, Vostok inferred interplanetary magnetic field polarity, Stanford mean solar magnetic field); data for November 1985-(solar active regions, sudden ionospheric disturbances, solar radio spectral observations, cosmic ray measurements by neutron monitor, geomagnetic indices, radio propagation indices); and late data-(geomagnetic indices, calcium plage data).

Coffey, H. E.↗

Galactic cosmic ray modulation and interplanetary medium perturbations due to a long-living active region during October 1989

During October 1989, three very energetic flares were ejected by the same active region at longitudes 9 deg E, 32 deg W, and 57 deg W, respectively. The shape of the galactic cosmic ray variations suggests the presence of large magnetic cloud structures (Nagashima et al., 1990) following the shock-associated perturbations. In spite of long data gaps the interplanetary observations at Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP) 8 (near the Earth) and International Cometary Explorer (ICE)(approximately 1 AU, approximately 65 deg W) confirm this possibility for the event related to the 9 deg E flare; the principal axes analysis shows that the interplanetary magnetic field variations at both spacecraft locations are mainly confined on a meridian plane. This result suggests that the western longitudinal extension of this cloud is indeed very large (greater than or equal to 5 deg). The nonnegligible depression in the cosmic ray intensity observed inside the possible cloud related to the 57 deg W flare indicates that also the eastern extension could be very wide. The analysis of neutron monitor data shows clearly the cosmic ray trapping effect of magnetic clouds; this mechanism seems to be responsible for the enhanced diurnal effect often observed during the recovery phase of Forbush decreases. We give an interpretation for the anisotropic cosmic ray peak occurring in the third event, and, related to that, we suggest that the Forbush decrease modulated region at the Earth's orbit could be somewhat wider than the magnetic cloud, as already anticipated by Nagashima et al. (1990). By this analysis, based mainly on cosmic ray data, we show that it is possible to do reasonable inferences on the large-scale structure of flare-related interplanetary perturbations when interplanetary medium data are not completely present.

Bavassano, B.↗

Current and future directions in network biology

Network biology is an interdisciplinary field bridging computational and biological sciences that has proved pivotal in advancing the understanding of cellular functions and diseases across biological systems and scales. Although the field has been around for two decades, it remains nascent. It has witnessed rapid evolution, accompanied by emerging challenges. These stem from various factors, notably the growing complexity and volume of data together with the increased diversity of data types describing different tiers of biological organization. We discuss prevailing research directions in network biology, focusing on molecular/cellular networks but also on other biological network types such as biomedical knowledge graphs, patient similarity networks, brain networks, and social/contact networks relevant to disease spread. In more detail, we highlight areas of inference and comparison of biological networks, multimodal data integration and heterogeneous networks, higher-order network analysis, machine learning on networks, and network-based personalized medicine. Following the overview of recent breakthroughs across these five areas, we offer a perspective on future directions of network biology. Additionally, we discuss scientific communities, educational initiatives, and the importance of fostering diversity within the field. This article establishes a roadmap for an immediate and long-term vision for network biology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Comet Giacobini-Zinner magnetotail: Axial stresses and inferred near-nucleus properties

Utilizing the electron and magnetic field data from the ICE tail traversal of comet Giacobini-Zinner along with the MHD equations, a steady state, stress balance model of the cometary magnetotail was developed, and used to infer important but unmeasured ion properties within the magnetotail at ICE and upstream at the average point along each streamline where cometary ions are picked-up. The derived tailward ion flow speed at ICE is quite constant at approx. -20 to -30 km/sec across the entire tail. The flow velocity, ion temperature, density, and ion source rates upstream from the lobes (current sheet) at the average pick-up locations are approx. -75 km/sec (approx. -12), approx. 4 million K (approx. 100,000), approx. 20 cc (approx. 400), and approx. 15 cu cm/sec. Gradients in the plasma properties between the two regions are quite strong. Implications of inferred plasma properties for the near-nucleus region and for cometary magnetotail formation are examined.

Mccomas, D. J.↗

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Seismic Elastic Double-Beam Characterization of Faults and Fractures for CO₂ Storage Site Selection

Site characterization for underground injection and storage of gigatonne-scale CO₂ requires reliable and cost-effective methods to detect and characterize faults and fractures and to assess their stress state and fault activation potential. This is critical, as wastewater injection and disposal have been shown to activate faults and induce earthquakes, and CO₂ leakage remains a key concern for long-term storage. In this project, we developed seismic methods to detect and characterize large-scale sedimentary and crystalline basement faults and associated small-scale fractures below conventional seismic imaging resolution using multicomponent (9C) surface seismic data. Machine learning was used to automatically interpret large-scale faults, providing key information for estimating the maximum magnitude of potential induced earthquakes. High-fidelity imaging was achieved by exploiting redundancy across multiple elastic wave modes, where independent images from different modes and frequencies cross-validate each other. We also used our nonlinear signal comparison (NLSC) method for ground roll removal, improving data quality in complex near-surface conditions. The methods were validated using field data acquired in central Montana. Results show that basement faults extend into the sedimentary section and that small-scale fractures are widespread above the basement. The inferred stress orientation is consistent with regional stress data, and the estimated maximum induced earthquake magnitude is small (Mw ~2.3). The developed workflow provides a practical approach for fault and fracture characterization and for assessing induced seismicity and leakage risk. It is directly applicable to CO₂ storage site selection and to other subsurface systems.

02 PETROLEUM↗