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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

An analysis of the accuracy and cost-effectiveness of a cropland inventory utilizing remote sensing techniques

Cropland inventories utilizing high altitude and Landsat imagery were conducted in Kern County, California. It was found that in terms of the overall mean relative and absolute inventory accuracies, a Landsat multidate analysis yielded the most optimum results, i.e., 98% accuracy. The 1:125,000 CIR high altitude inventory is a serious alternative which can be very accurate (97% or more) if imagery is available for a specific study area. The operational remote sensing cropland inventories documented in this study are considered cost-effective. When compared to conventional survey costs of $62-66 per 10,000 acres, the Landsat and high-altitude inventories required only 3-5% of this amount, i.e., $1.97-2.98.

Jensen, J. R.↗

National Cost-effectiveness of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2016

The purpose of this analysis is to examine the cost-effectiveness of the 2016 edition of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1 (ASHRAE 2016). Standard 90.1 is developed by the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) Standard Standing Project Committee (SSPC) 90.1. It is the model energy standard for commercial and multi-family residential buildings over three floors (42 USC 6833). PNNL analyzed the cost-effectiveness of changes in Standard 90.1 from 90.1-2013 to 90.1-2016, as applied in commercial buildings across the United States. During the development of new editions of Standard 90.1, the cost-effectiveness of individual changes (addenda) is often calculated to support the deliberations of ASHRAE Standard Standing Project Committee (SSPC) 90.1. The ASHRAE process, however, does not include analysis of the cost-effectiveness of the entire package of addenda from one edition of the standard to the next, which is of particular interest to adopting State and local governments. Providing States with an analysis of cost-effectiveness may encourage more rapid adoption of newer editions of energy codes based on Standard 90.1. This information may also inform the development of future editions of Standard 90.1. To establish the cost-effectiveness of Standard 90.1-2016, three main tasks were addressed: (1) Identification of building elements impacted by the updated standard; (2) Allocation of associated installation, maintenance, and replacement costs; and (3) Cost-effectiveness analysis of required changes In addition to installation, maintenance, and replacement costs, energy cost differences were needed to determine cost-effectiveness. The energy costs for each edition of Standard 90.1 were determined previously under the development of Standard 90.1-2016, as described below. The current analysis builds on the previous PNNL analysis (as outlined in Section 5.2) of the energy use and energy cost saving impacts of Standard 90.1-2016 compared to previous editions. The overall energy savings analysis of Standard 90.1 utilized a suite of 16 prototype EnergyPlus building models in 15 climate locations representing all eight U.S. climate zones. Detailed methodology and overall energy saving results from Standard 90.1-2016 are documented in the DOE technical report titled Energy Savings Analysis: ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2016 (DOE. 2018b).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

SOFIA: Spectrometer Optimized for Facility Integrated Applications

Los Alamos National Laboratory researchers developed the Spectrometer Optimized for Facility Integrated Applications (SOFIA) for new capabilities in non-destructive nuclear material analysis, nuclear data measurements, and actinide science. SOFIA is the first ultra-high resolution gamma spectrometer technology based on low-temperature microcalorimeter designs. By precisely measuring the gamma rays passively emitted from radioactive and nuclear materials, SOFIA provides rapid, completely nondestructive analysis to improve the economics and timeliness of nuclear material analysis by reducing reliance on costly sampling and destructive analysis. By developing the first compact instrument based on ultrahigh resolution microcalorimeter gamma spectroscopy, the researchers intended to bring this technology into practical use in nuclear facilities and analytical laboratories.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Techno-Economic Studies for Pumped Storage Hydropower (Final CRADA Report)

The research focused on estimating the value of various services and contributions that pumped storage hydropower (PSH) provides to the grid, especially in locations characterized by high penetration of variable renewable energy resources. Under this CRADA, the Participant provided the Contractors with non-proprietary data and information on the proposed Banner Mountain PSH project that describe project’s technoeconomic and environmental characteristics, planned market and business models, and other relevant information necessary to describe the proposed project and its planned operations. The Contractors analyzed this information and performed various technoeconomic studies to estimate the value of different services and contributions that PSH project could provide to the grid. The outcome of this CRADA was a detailed technoeconomic analysis conducted in a comprehensive cost–benefit and decision analysis framework.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Process feasibility study in support of silicon material task 1

Process system properties are analyzed for materials involved in the alternate processes under consideration for solar cell grade silicon. The following property data are reported for trichlorosilane: critical constants, vapor pressure, heat of vaporization, gas heat capacity, liquid heat capacity, density, surface tension, viscosity, thermal conductivity, heat of formation, and Gibb's free energy of formation. Work continued on the measurement of gas viscosity values of silicon source materials. Gas phase viscosity values for silicon tetrafluoride between 40 C and 200 C were experimentally determined. Major efforts were expended on completion of the preliminary economic analysis of the silane process. Cost, sensitivity and profitability analysis results are presented based on a preliminary process design of a plant to produce 1,000 metric tons/year of silicon by the revised process.

Li, K. Y.↗

Design, processing and testing of LSI arrays: Hybrid microelectronics task

Mathematical cost factors were generated for both hybrid microcircuit and printed wiring board packaging methods. A mathematical cost model was created for analysis of microcircuit fabrication costs. The costing factors were refined and reduced to formulae for computerization. Efficient methods were investigated for low cost packaging of LSI devices as a function of density and reliability. Technical problem areas such as wafer bumping, inner/outer leading bonding, testing on tape, and tape processing, were investigated.

Himmel, R. P.↗

Operations and support cost modeling using Markov chains

Systems for future missions will be selected with life cycle costs (LCC) as a primary evaluation criterion. This reflects the current realization that only systems which are considered affordable will be built in the future due to the national budget constaints. Such an environment calls for innovative cost modeling techniques which address all of the phases a space system goes through during its life cycle, namely: design and development, fabrication, operations and support; and retirement. A significant portion of the LCC for reusable systems are generated during the operations and support phase (OS). Typically, OS costs can account for 60 to 80 percent of the total LCC. Clearly, OS costs are wholly determined or at least strongly influenced by decisions made during the design and development phases of the project. As a result OS costs need to be considered and estimated early in the conceptual phase. To be effective, an OS cost estimating model needs to account for actual instead of ideal processes by associating cost elements with probabilities. One approach that may be suitable for OS cost modeling is the use of the Markov Chain Process. Markov chains are an important method of probabilistic analysis for operations research analysts but they are rarely used for life cycle cost analysis. This research effort evaluates the use of Markov Chains in LCC analysis by developing OS cost model for a hypothetical reusable space transportation vehicle (HSTV) and suggests further uses of the Markov Chain process as a design-aid tool.

Unal, Resit↗

Developing Decommissioning Cost Estimating Relationships and the Decommissioning Estimate Analysis Library Estimating System - 20423

DOE-EM's Consolidated Business Center (EM-CBC) Office of Cost Estimating has developed a system of Decommissioning Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) and Models to improve the reliability and efficiency of its estimates. The development builds on the multi-year process of collecting and organizing historical cost data from DOEEMs decommissioning projects and estimate model development to support project and program-level decommissioning estimates. The latest work has extended these models down to project scope element and component building area levels, allowing the actual costs of work for these estimate components to be assembled into estimates that reflect specific projects. The CERs have been incorporated into two estimator-friendly products - as cost libraries in the MII estimating program and as an MS Excel-based model, and are available for DOE federal staff use. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Hydrogen Contamination Detector: Protecting the future of zero-emission fuel cell energy [Brief]

Los Alamos National Laboratory developed an electrochemical detector to protect zero-emission hydrogen fuel cells from contaminated fuels. Fuel cells power environmentally clean vehicles, fork lifts, drones, and provide auxiliary power. High-purity hydrogen is essential to avoid poisoning fuel cells. Current analysis methods are costly and cannot detect impurities in realtime. The Hydrogen Contamination Detector measures the two highest impact Department of Energy-identified impurities with a simple, low-cost unit that provides 24/7, point-of-service analysis. Los Alamos partnered with H2Frontiers to conduct field trials at hydrogen refueling stations and with Skyre LLC for commercialization through a DOE Technology Commercialization Fund project.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Fast Formal Analysis of Requirements via "Topoi Diagrams"

Early testing of requirements can decrease the cost of removing errors in software projects. However, unless done carefully, that testing process can significantly add to the cost of requirements analysis. We show here that requirements expressed as topoi diagrams can be built and tested cheaply using our SP2 algorithm, the formal temporal properties of a large class of topoi can be proven very quickly, in time nearly linear in the number of nodes and edges in the diagram. There are two limitations to our approach. Firstly, topoi diagrams cannot express certain complex concepts such as iteration and sub-routine calls. Hence, our approach is more useful for requirements engineering than for traditional model checking domains. Secondly, out approach is better for exploring the temporal occurrence of properties than the temporal ordering of properties. Within these restrictions, we can express a useful range of concepts currently seen in requirements engineering, and a wide range of interesting temporal properties.

Menzies, Tim↗

A Techno-Economic Analysis of a 50MWth Light-Trapping Cavity-Planar Solar Receiver Tower Capital Expenditures and its Cost Mitigation Strategies

To maximize thermal efficiency, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has proposed a light-trapping cavity-planar receiver design intended to capture energy from reradiating surfaces. This system implements a macroscale light trapping mechanism induced by panels with triangular channels, this mechanism allows for elevated temperatures on the receiver panels and in turn the temperature of the HTF; using this design coupled with the implementation of a fluidized particle flow as the HTF, it can be expected for some components to reach a peak working temperature of nearly 1000 degrees C cyclically throughout each day-night cycle. While these temperatures correlate to higher efficiency of the CSP tower they also demand intense thermomechanical properties from the materials used to make the receiver panels. In this analysis, we will list our assumptions to provide clarity on the significance of our calculation. This cost analysis will be conducted using a combination of both case study data and surveying industry to determine costs that are relevant to the current market trends. This analysis represents an early attempt to establish the Capital Expenditures required for a CSP tower of such design to determine the feasibility of implementing such a system in the industry.

concentrated solar power (CSP)↗

CAMERA: A method for cost-aware, adaptive, multifidelity, efficient reliability analysis

Estimating probability of failure in aerospace systems is a critical requirement for flight certification and qualification. Failure probability estimation involves resolving tails of probability distributions, and Monte Carlo sampling methods are intractable when expensive high-fidelity simulations have to be queried. Here, we propose a method to use models of multiple fidelities that trade accuracy for computational efficiency. Specifically, we propose the use of multifidelity Gaussian process models to efficiently fuse models at multiple fidelity, thereby offering a cheap surrogate model that emulates the original model at all fidelities. Furthermore, we propose a novel sequential acquisition function based experiment design framework that can automatically select samples from appropriate fidelity models to make predictions about quantities of interest at the highest fidelity. We use our proposed approach in an importance sampling setting and demonstrate our method on the failure level set and probability estimation on synthetic test functions and two real-world applications, namely, the reliability analysis of a gas turbine engine blade using a finite element method and a transonic aerodynamic wing test case using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show that our method predicts the failure boundary and probability more accurately and at a fraction of the computational cost compared with using just a single expensive high-fidelity model. Finally, we show that our sequential approach is guaranteed to asymptotically converge to the true failure boundary with high probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks, With Minimum Sustainable Price Analysis: Q1 2023

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) aims to accelerate the advancement and deployment of solar technology in support of an equitable transition to a decarbonized economy no later than 2050, starting with a decarbonized power sector by 2035. Its approach to achieving this goal includes driving innovations in technology, hardware, and soft cost reductions to make solar affordable and accessible for all. As part of this effort, SETO must track solar cost trends so it can focus its research and development (R&D) on the highest-impact activities. The benchmarks in this report are bottom-up cost estimates of all major inputs to PV and energy storage system installations. Bottom-up costs are based on national averages and do not necessarily represent typical costs in all local markets. Like last year's report, this year's report includes two distinct sets of benchmarks: minimum sustainable price (MSP) benchmarks and modeled market price (MMP) benchmarks. MSP benchmarks can be interpreted as the minimum price a company needs to charge to remain financially solvent in the long term based on the minimum sustainable prices of all inputs including minimum sustainable profit margins. MMP benchmarks can be interpreted as the actual cash sales price a company charges in the given benchmark period. These simplified estimates are useful for tracking technological progress, but they do not reflect all experiences. In fact, no individual estimate under any approach can reflect the diversity of the PV and storage manufacturing and installation industries. Our residential MMP benchmark ($2.90 per watt direct current [Wdc]) is 24% higher than the MSP benchmark ($2.34/Wdc) and 9% lower than our MMP benchmark ($3.18/Wdc) from Q1 2022 in 2022 U.S. dollars (USD). For community solar, our MMP benchmark ($1.75/Wdc) is 18% higher than our MSP benchmark ($1.49/Wdc). Our Q1 2022 benchmark report has no community solar system for comparison. For utility-scale systems with one-axis tracking, our MMP benchmark ($1.17/Wdc) is 22% higher than our MSP benchmark ($0.96/Wdc) and 10% higher than its counterpart ($1.07/Wdc) in Q1 2022 in 2022 USD.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Q1 2023 U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks With Minimum Sustainable Price Analysis Data File

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) aims to accelerate the advancement and deployment of solar technology in support of an equitable transition to a decarbonized economy no later than 2050, starting with a decarbonized power sector by 2035. Its approach to achieving this goal includes driving innovations in technology, hardware, and soft cost reductions to make solar affordable and accessible for all. As part of this effort, SETO must track solar cost trends so it can focus its research and development (R&D) on the highest-impact activities. The benchmarks in this report are bottom-up cost estimates of all major inputs to PV and energy storage system installations. Bottom-up costs are based on national averages and do not necessarily represent typical costs in all local markets. Like last year's report, this year's report includes two distinct sets of benchmarks: minimum sustainable price (MSP) benchmarks and modeled market price (MMP) benchmarks. MSP benchmarks can be interpreted as the minimum price a company needs to charge to remain financially solvent in the long term based on the minimum sustainable prices of all inputs including minimum sustainable profit margins. MMP benchmarks can be interpreted as the actual cash sales price a company charges in the given benchmark period. These simplified estimates are useful for tracking technological progress, but they do not reflect all experiences. In fact, no individual estimate under any approach can reflect the diversity of the PV and storage manufacturing and installation industries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Holter monitoring: are two days better than one?

The optimal duration of Holter monitoring (HM) to minimize costs and maximize yield is unknown. In a retrospective review of 164 patients referred to a tertiary care center for evaluation with 2 days of HM, we found that 48 hours was not cost effective when compared with the traditional 24-hour period.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Development of Advanced Life Cycle Costing Methods for Technology Benefit/Cost/Risk Assessment

The overall objective of this three-year grant is to provide NASA Langley's System Analysis Branch with improved affordability tools and methods based on probabilistic cost assessment techniques. In order to accomplish this objective, the Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory (ASDL) needs to pursue more detailed affordability, technology impact, and risk prediction methods and to demonstrate them on variety of advanced commercial transports. The affordability assessment, which is a cornerstone of ASDL methods, relies on the Aircraft Life Cycle Cost Analysis (ALCCA) program originally developed by NASA Ames Research Center and enhanced by ASDL. This grant proposed to improve ALCCA in support of the project objective by updating the research, design, test, and evaluation cost module, as well as the engine development cost module. Investigations into enhancements to ALCCA include improved engine development cost, process based costing, supportability cost, and system reliability with airline loss of revenue for system downtime. A probabilistic, stand-alone version of ALCCA/FLOPS will also be developed under this grant in order to capture the uncertainty involved in technology assessments. FLOPS (FLight Optimization System program) is an aircraft synthesis and sizing code developed by NASA Langley Research Center. This probabilistic version of the coupled program will be used within a Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method to determine what types of technologies would have to be infused in a system in order to meet customer requirements. A probabilistic analysis of the CER's (cost estimating relationships) within ALCCA will also be carried out under this contract in order to gain some insight as to the most influential costs and the impact that code fidelity could have on future RDS (Robust Design Simulation) studies.

Yackovetsky, Robert↗