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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization on Seasonal Weather Prediction

The potential role of soil moisture initialization in seasonal forecasting is illustrated through ensembles of simulations with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) model. For each boreal summer during 1997-2001, we generated two 16-member ensembles of 3-month simulations. The first, "AMIP-style" ensemble establishes the degree to which a perfect prediction of SSTs would contribute to the seasonal prediction of precipitation and temperature over continents. The second ensemble is identical to the first, except that the land surface is also initialized with "realistic" soil moisture contents through the continuous prior application (within GCM simulations leading up to the start of the forecast period) of a daily observational precipitation data set and the associated avoidance of model drift through the scaling of all surface prognostic variables. A comparison of the two ensembles shows that soil moisture initialization has a statistically significant impact on summertime precipitation and temperature over only a handful of continental regions. These regions agree, to first order, with regions that satisfy three conditions: (1) a tendency toward large initial soil moisture anomalies, (2) a strong sensitivity of evaporation to soil moisture, and (3) a strong sensitivity of precipitation to evaporation. The degree to which the initialization improves forecasts relative to observations is mixed, reflecting a critical need for the continued development of model parameterizations and data analysis strategies.

Koster, Randal D.↗

A continuous damage model based on stepwise-stress creep rupture tests

A creep damage accumulation model is presented that makes use of the Kachanov damage rate concept with a provision accounting for damage that results from a variable stress history. This is accomplished through the introduction of an additional term in the Kachanov rate equation that is linear in the stress rate. Specification of the material functions and parameters in the model requires two types of constituting a data base: (1) standard constant-stress creep rupture tests, and (2) a sequence of two-step creep rupture tests.

Robinson, D. N.↗

Modeling hydrogen markets: Energy system model development status and decarbonization scenario results

Hydrogen can be used as an energy carrier and chemical feedstock to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially in difficult-to-decarbonize markets such as medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation and maritime, iron and steel, and the production of fuels and chemicals. Significant literature has been accumulated on engineering-based assessments of various hydrogen technologies, and real-world projects are validating technology performance at larger scales and for low-carbon supply chains. While energy system models continue to be updated to track this progress, many are currently limited in their representation of hydrogen, and as a group they tend to generate highly variable results under decarbonization constraints. Here, the present work provides insights into the development status and decarbonization scenario results of 15 energy system models participating in study 37 of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF37), focusing on the U.S. energy system. The models and scenario results vary widely in multiple respects: hydrogen technology representation, scope and type of hydrogen end-use markets, relative optimism of hydrogen technology input assumptions, and market uptake results reported for 2050 under various decarbonization assumptions. Most models report hydrogen market uptake increasing with decarbonization constraints, though some models report high carbon prices being required to achieve these increases and some find hydrogen does not compete well when assuming optimistic assumptions for all advanced decarbonization technologies. Across various scenarios, hydrogen market success tends to have an inverse relationship to success with direct air capture (DAC) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. While most model-scenario combinations predict modest hydrogen uptake by 2050 – <10 million metric tons (MMT) – aggregating the top 10 % of market uptake results across sectors suggests an upper range demand potential of 42–223 MMT. The high degree of variability across both modeling methods and market uptake results suggests that increased harmonization of both input assumptions and subsector competition scope would lead to more consistent results across energy system models. The wide variability in results indicates strongly divergent conclusions on the role of hydrogen in a decarbonized energy future.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Efficient loading of reduced data ensembles produced at ORNL SNS/HFIR neutron time-of-flight facilities

We present algorithmic improvements to the loading operations of certain reduced data ensembles produced from neutron scattering experiments at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) facilities. Ensembles from multiple measurements are required to cover a wide range of the phase space of a sample material of interest. They are stored using the standard NeXus schema on individual HDF5 files. This makes it a scalability challenge, as the number of experiments stored increases in a single ensemble file. The present work follows up on our previous efforts on data management algorithms, to address identified input output (I/O) bottlenecks in Mantid, an open-source data analysis framework used across several neutron science facilities around the world. We reuse an in-memory binary-tree metadata index that resembles data access patterns, to provide a scalable search and extraction mechanism. In addition, several memory operations are refactored and optimized for the current common use cases, ranging most frequently from 10 to 180, and up to 360 separate measurement configurations. Results from this work show consistent speed ups in wall-clock time on the Mantid LoadMD routine, ranging from 19% to 23% on average, on ORNL production computing systems. The latter depends on the complexity of the targeted instrument-specific data and the system I/O and compute variability for the shared computational resources available to users of ORNL’s Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) and the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) instruments. Nevertheless, we continue to highlight the need for more research to address reduction challenges as experimental data volumes, user time and processing costs increase.

Godoy, William↗

Lower Snake River Dams Contribution to Grid Services

Hydroelectric generation and water storage have long been components of the clean energy mix, providing both reliable steady output and operational flexibility. As variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar increasingly replace traditional generation, the role of all flexible resources—including hydropower—in balancing supply and demand continues to evolve. This study examined the contribution of the Lower Snake River (LSR) Dam plants to Bonneville Power Administration grid services in maintaining power system reliability within the Western Interconnection. By analyzing publicly available data, the study evaluated various reliability services through performance metrics including energy capacity, balancing and ramping, voltage and reactive power support, frequency response, and transmission impact. Results indicated that the LSR plants deliver services as expected based on their size, contributing to the balancing process, ramping capabilities, and operational reserves, particularly during peak load conditions and weather events, while also providing measurable frequency and voltage support to the grid.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Size dependence in chord characteristics from simulated and observed continental shallow cumulus

Abstract. In this study we compare long-term Doppler and Raman lidar observations against a full month of large eddy simulations of continental shallow cumulus clouds. The goal is to evaluate if the simulations can reproduce the mean observed vertical velocity and moisture structure of cumulus clouds and their associated subcloud circulations, as well as to establish if these properties depend on the size of the cloud. We propose methods to compare continuous chords of cloud detected from Doppler and Raman lidars with equivalent chords derived from 1D and 3D model output. While the individual chords are highly variable, composites of thousands of observed and millions of simulated chords contain a clear signal. We find that the simulations underestimate cloud size and fraction but successfully reproduce the observed structure of vertical velocity and moisture perturbations. There is a clear scaling of vertical velocity and moisture anomalies below the chords with chord size, but the moisture anomalies are only 1 %–2 % higher than the horizontal mean values. The differences between the observations and simulations are smaller than the difference in sampling the modeled chords in time or space. The shape of the vertical velocity and moisture anomalies from cloud chords sampled spatially from 3D model snapshots is almost perfectly symmetric. In contrast, the chords sampled temporally from the lidar observations and 1D model output have a marked asymmetry, with stronger updrafts and higher moisture anomalies occurring earlier on.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Task and work performance on Skylab missions 2, 3, and 4: Time and motion study: Experiment M151

Human task performance was evaluated under weightlessness conditions during long duration space flight in order to study the characteristics of the adaptation function. Results show that despite pronounced variability in training schedules and in initial reaction to the Skylab environment, in-flight task performance was relatively equivalent among Skylab crews, and behavioral performance continued to improve from beginning to end of all missions.

Kubis, J. F.↗

The solar-terrestrial observatory as a major module of a space station

The solar-terrestrial environment is a dynamic, tightly coupled system in which variable solar energy is transmitted through electromagnetic radiation and the solar wind to the earth's magnetosphere and atmosphere. The constantly changing solar input and the continuous redistribution of energy near the earth combine to determine the characteristics of our global environment. An understanding and subsequent management of this environment will require a coordinated set of observations of solar processes and the accompanying magnetospheric and atmospheric responses. A major element in this observational plan should be a Solar-Terrestrial Observatory module of a manned Space Station in which instruments and experimental techniques developed during short-duration Spacelab flights will be applied to extended missions in both low-altitude and geosynchronous orbits.

Chappell, C. R.↗

Recommendations of the panels: Panel on in-flight measurements

The attenuation factor for aircraft other than the B-747 in reducing the ambient ozone concentrations which enter the cabin is obtained. The need to continue NASA Global Air Sampling Program measurements was expressed for three main purposes; testing new filters, correlation of complaints with ozone levels, and ambient ozone data. The need to continue cooperation between NASA and industry is indicated. Concern with regard to the correlation of ozone levels and complaints was given. The need to measure the variability of ozone within the aircraft cabin was investigated. The requirement for an onboard ozone monitor on all aircraft is discussed.

Rogers, J.↗

Thunderstorm-environment interactions determined with three-dimensional trajectories

Diagnostically determined three dimensional trajectories were used to reveal some of the scale interaction processes that occur between convective storms and their environment. Data from NASA's fourth Atmospheric Variability Experiment are analyzed. Two intense squall lines and numerous reports of severe weather occurred during the period. Convective storm systems with good temporal and spatial continuity are shown to be related to the development and movement of short wave circulation systems aloft that propagate eastward within a zonal mid tropospheric wind pattern. These short wave systems are found to produce the potential instability and dynamic triggering needed for thunderstorm formation. The environmental flow patterns, relative to convective storm systems, are shown to produce large upward air parcel movements in excess of 50 mb/3h in the immediate vicinity of the storms. The air undergoing strong lifting originates as potentially unstable low level air traveling into the storm environment from southern and southwestern directions. The thermo and hydrodynamical processes that lead to changes in atmospheric structure before, during, and after convective storm formation are described using total time derivatives of pressure or net vertical displacement, potential temperature, and vector wind calculated by following air parcels.

Wilson, G. S.↗

Observations of Cygnus X-3 above 10(15) eV from 1979 - 1984

The ultra high energy gamma-ray source, cygnus X-3, has been observed more or less continuously with an array sensitive to 10 to the 15th power ev primaries between 1 Jan. 1979 and 31 Dec. 1984. There is evidence for time variability in the phase of gamma-ray emission over this period.

Lambert, A.↗

A continuum damage model of fatigue-induced damage in laminated composites

A model is presented which predicts the stress-strain behavior of continuous fiber reinforced laminated composites in the presence of microstructural damage. The model is based on the concept of continuum damage mechanics and uses internal state variables to characterize the various damage modes. The associated internal state variable growth laws are mathematical models of the loading history induced development of microstructural damage. The model is demonstrated by using it to predict the response of damaged AS-4/3502 graphite/epoxy laminate panels.

Harris, Charles E.↗

Inferring total canopy APAR from PAR bidirectional reflectances and vegetation indices in tallgrass prairie

The fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) absorbed by a vegetated canopy (APARc) or landscape (APARs) is a critical parameter in climate processes. A grassland study examined: 1) whether APARs can be estimated from PAR bidirectional exitance fractions; and 2) whether APARs is correlated with spectral vegetation indices (SVIs). Data were acquired with a high resolution continuous spectroradiometer at 4 sun angles on grassland sites. APARs was computed from the scattered surface PAR exitance fractions. The nadir APARs value was the most variable diurnally; it provided a good estimate of the average surface APARs at ~95 percent. APARc was best represented by exitance factors between 30-60* forward.

Middleton, Elizabeth M.↗

Electronic Dimmable Ballasts for High-Intensity Discharge Sodium Vapor and Metal Halide Lamps

Two types of high-intensity discharge lamps were tested using dimmable ballasts. The main purpose for evaluating this lighting system was to determine its efficacy for saving power. Whereas previous variable level lighting systems for HID lamps in Advanced Life Support applications were adjustable in two or three steps using capacitive switching, this system allows for continuously adjustable lamp output. This type of lighting system when used as part of an Advanced Life Support biomass production system would provide only the amount of light energy a crop needed at any particular point in its growth cycle. Since most of the equivalent system mass in an ALS system is from the light energy required to grow the crops, controlling that light energy dynamically over a continuous range of operation would dramatically reduce the power consumption and reduce system mass.

Boulanger, Richard↗

Ejecta- and Size-Scaling Considerations from Impacts of Glass Projectiles into Sand

One of the most promising means of learning how initial impact conditions are related to the processes leading to the formation of a planetary-scale crater is through scaling relationships.1,2,3 The first phase of deriving such relationships has led to great insight into the cratering process and has yielded predictive capabilities that are mathematically rigorous and internally consistent. Such derivations typically have treated targets as continuous media; in many, cases, however, planetary materials represent irregular and discontinuous targets, the effects of which on the scaling relationships are still poorly understood.4,5 We continue to examine the effects of varying impact conditions on the excavation and final dimensions of craters formed in sand. Along with the more commonly treated variables such as impact speed, projectile size and material, and impact angle,6 such experiments also permit the study of changing granularity and friction angle of the target materials. This contribution presents some of the data collected during and after the impact of glass spheres into a medium-grained sand.

Anderson J. L. B.↗

From Earth to Space: Application of Biological Treatment for the Removal of Ammonia from Water

Managing ammonia is often a challenge in both drinking water and wastewater treatment facilities. Ammonia is unregulated in drinking water, but its presence may result in numerous water quality issues in the distribution system such as loss of residual disinfectant, nitrification, and corrosion. Ammonia concentrations need to be managed in wastewater effluent to sustain the health of receiving water bodies. Biological treatment involves the microbiological oxidation of ammonia to nitrate through a two‐step process. While nitrification is common in the environment, and nitrifying bacteria can grow rapidly on filtration media, appropriate conditions, such as the presence of dissolved oxygen and required nutrients, need to be established. This presentation will highlight results from two ongoing research programs - one at NASA's Johnson Space Center, and the other at a drinking water facility in California. Both programs are designed to demonstrate nitrification through biological treatment. The objective of NASA's research is to be able to recycle wastewater to potable water for spaceflight mission. To this end, a biological water processor (BWP) has been integrated with a forward osmosis secondary treatment system (FOST). Bacteria mineralize organic carbon to carbon dioxide as well as ammonia‐nitrogen present in the wastewater to nitrogen gas, through a combination of nitrification and denitrification. The effluent from the BWP system is low in organic contaminants, but high in total dissolved solids. The FOST system, integrated downstream of the BWP, removes dissolved solids through a combination of concentration‐driven forward osmosis and pressure driven reverse osmosis. The integrated system testing planned for this year is expected to produce water that requires only a polishing step to meet potable water requirements for spaceflight. The pilot study in California is being conducted on Golden State Water Company's Yukon wellsthat have hydrogen sulfide odor, color, total organic carbon, bromide, iron and manganese in addition to ammonia. A treatment evaluation, conducted in 2011, recommended the testing of biological oxidation filtration for the removal of ammonia and production of biologically stable water. A 8‐month pilot testing program was conducted to develop and optimize key design and operational variables. Steadystate operational data was collected to demonstrate long‐term performance and inform California Department of Public Health permitting of the full‐scale process. As ammonia continues to present challenges to water and wastewater systems, innovative strategies such as biological treatment can be applied to successfully manage it. This presentation will discuss application of cutting‐age research being conducted by NASA that will bridge existing information gaps, and benefit municipal utilities.

Ghosh, Amlan↗

From Earth to Space: Application of Biological Treatment for the Removal of Ammonia from Water

Managing ammonia is often a challenge in both drinking water and wastewater treatment facilities. Ammonia is unregulated in drinking water, but its presence may result in numerous water quality issues in the distribution system such as loss of residual disinfectant, nitrification, and corrosion. Ammonia concentrations need to be managed in wastewater effluent to sustain the health of receiving water bodies. Biological treatment involves the microbiological oxidation of ammonia to nitrate through a two‐step process. While nitrification is common in the environment, and nitrifying bacteria can grow rapidly on filtration media, appropriate conditions, such as the presence of dissolved oxygen and required nutrients, need to be established. This presentation will highlight results from two ongoing research programs - one at NASA's Johnson Space Center, and the other at a drinking water facility in California. Both programs are designed to demonstrate nitrification through biological treatment. The objective of NASA's research is to be able to recycle wastewater to potable water for spaceflight missions. To this end, a biological water processor (BWP) has been integrated with a forward osmosis secondary treatment system (FOST). Bacteria mineralize organic carbon to carbon dioxide as well as ammonia‐nitrogen present in the wastewater to nitrogen gas, through a combination of nitrification and denitrification. The effluent from the BWP system is low in organic contaminants, but high in total dissolved solids. The FOST system, integrated downstream of the BWP, removes dissolved solids through a combination of concentration‐driven forward osmosis and pressure driven reverse osmosis. The integrated system testing planned for this year is expected to produce water that requires only a polishing step to meet potable water requirements for spaceflight. The pilot study in California is being conducted on Golden State Water Company's Yukon wells that have hydrogen sulfide odor, color, total organic carbon, bromide, iron and manganese in addition to ammonia. A treatment evaluation, conducted in 2011, recommended the testing of biological oxidation filtration for the removal of ammonia and production of biologically stable water. An 8‐month pilot testing program was conducted to develop and optimize key design and operational variables. Steadystate operational data was collected to demonstrate long‐term performance and inform California Department of Public Health permitting of the full‐scale process. As ammonia continues to present challenges to water and wastewater systems, innovative strategies such as biological treatment can be applied to successfully manage it. This presentation will discuss application of cutting‐age research being conducted by NASA that will bridge existing information gaps, and benefit municipal utilities.

Pickering, Karen↗

Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts. A Review in the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

The Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies amplified by local land surface-atmosphere interactions. This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales. At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduction over the Sahel, and positive SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall. At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall. Prediction systems have evolved from seasonal to decadal forecasting. The agreement among future projections has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with a general tendency for slightly wetter conditions over the central part of the Sahel, drier conditions over the western part, and a delay in the monsoon onset. The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects.

West Africa↗