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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

Improving Assimilated Global Data Sets using TMI Rainfall and Columnar Moisture Observations

A global analysis that optimally combine observations from diverse sources with physical models of atmospheric and land processes can provide a comprehensive description of the climate systems. Currently, such data products contain significant errors in primary hydrological fields such as precipitation and evaporation, especially in the tropics. In this study, we show that assimilating precipitation and total precipitable water (TPW) retrievals derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) improves not only the hydrological cycle but also key climate parameters such as clouds, radiation, and the large-scale circulation produced by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system (DAS). In particular, assimilating TMI rain improves clouds and radiation in areas of active convection, as well as the latent heating distribution and the large-scale motion field in the tropics, while assimilating TMI TPW heating distribution and the large-scale motion field in the tropics, while assimilating TMI TPW retrievals leads to reduced moisture biases and improved radiative fluxes in clear-sky regions. The improved analysis also improves short-range forecasts in the tropics. Ensemble forecasts initialized with the GEOS analysis incorporating TMI rain rates and TPW yield smaller biases in tropical precipitation forecasts beyond 1 day and better 500 hPa geopotential height forecasts up to 5 days. Results of this study demonstrate the potential of using high-quality space-borne rainfall and moisture observations to improve the quality of assimilated global data for climate analysis and weather forecasting applications

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Sensitivity of Probable Maximum Flood in a Changing Environment

With likely increases in probable maximum precipitation (PMP) in a changing environment, critical infrastructures such as major reservoirs and nuclear power plants are subject to elevated risk. To understand how factors such as PMP variability, climate change, land use land cover (LULC) change, antecedent soil moisture conditions, and reservoir storage may individually or jointly affect the magnitude of probable maximum flood (PMF), we conducted integrated hydrometeorological simulations involving both the Weather Research Forecasting model and the distributed hydrologic model (DHSVM) over the Alabama–Coosa–Tallapoosa (ACT) River Basin in the southeastern United States. A total of 120 relative humidity–maximized PMP storms under historic and projected future climate conditions were used to drive DHSVM in current and projected future LULC conditions. Overall, PMP and PMF are projected to increase significantly over the ACT River Basin. Sources of meteorological forcing data sets and climate change were found to be the most sensitive factors affecting PMF, followed by antecedent soil moisture, reservoir storage, and then LULC change. In conclusion, the ensemble of PMP and PMF simulations, along with their sensitivity, allows us to better quantify the potential risks associated with hydroclimatic extreme events to critical infrastructures for energy–water security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Variability of Clouds Over a Solar Cycle

One of the most controversial aspects of climate studies is the debate over the natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change. Historical data strongly suggest that the Little Ice Age (from 1550 to 1850 AD when the mean temperature was colder by about 1 C) was most likely caused by variability of the sun and not greenhouse molecules (e.g., CO2). However, the known variability in solar irradiance and modulation of cosmic rays provides too little energy, by many orders of magnitude, to lead to climate changes in the troposphere. The conjecture is that there is a 'trigger mechanism'. This idea may now be subjected to a quantitative test using recent global datasets. Using the best available modern cloud data from International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), Svensmark and Friis-Christensen found a correlation of a large variation (3-4%) in global cloud cover with the solar cycle. The work has been extended by Svensmark and Marsh and Svensmark. The implied forcing on climate is an order of magnitude greater than any previous claims. Are clouds the long sought trigger mechanism? This discovery is potentially so important that it should be corroborated by an independent database, and, furthermore, it must be shown that alternative explanations (i.e., El Nino) can be ruled out. We used the ISCCP data in conjunction with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data to carry out in in depth study of the cloud trigger mechanism.

Yung, Yuk L.↗

Reanalysis of Mariner 9 UV spectrometer data for ozone, cloud, and dust abundances, and their interaction over climate timescales

Research activities to date are discussed. Selected Mariner 9 UV spectra were obtained. Radiative transfer models were updated and then exercised to simulate spectra. Simulated and observed spectra compare favorably. It is noted that large amounts of ozone are currently not retrieved with reflectance spectroscopy, raising large doubts about earlier published ozone abundances. As these published abundances have been used as a benchmark for all theoretical photochemical models of Mars, this deserves further exploration. Three manuscripts were published, and one is in review. Papers were presented and published at three conferences, and are planned for five more conferences in the next six months. The research plan for the next reporting period is discussed and involves continuing studies of reflectance spectroscopy, further examination of Mariner 9 data, and climate change studies of ozone.

Lindner, Bernhard Lee↗

Ka-Band ARM Zenith Radar Corrections (KAZRCOR, KAZRCFRCOR) Value-Added Products

The Ka-Band Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Zenith Radar Corrections (KAZRCOR) and KA-Band ARM Zenith Radar CF-Radial, Corrected (KAZRCFRCOR) value-added products (VAPs) perform several corrections to the ingested KAZR moments and also create a significant detection mask for each radar mode. The VAPs compute gaseous attenuation as a function of time and radial distance from the radar antenna, based on ambient meteorological observations, and correct observed reflectivities for that effect. Mean Doppler velocities are dealiased to correct velocities whose magnitudes exceed the radar’s Nyquist velocity. Input KAZR data fields are passed through to the KAZRCOR or KAZRCFRCOR output files, in their native time and range coordinates. Complementary corrected reflectivity and velocity fields are provided, along with a mask of significant detections and a number of data quality flags. This report covers the KAZRCOR VAP as applied to the original KAZR radars and the upgraded KAZR2 radars. Originally, prior to late 2019, there were two separate code bases for the different radar versions. Following the harmonization of KAZR and KAZR2 data formats in 2019, only a single code base is required. The new combined KAZR and KAZR2 code base is called the KAZRCFRCOR VAP. The ‘cfr portion of the VAP name refers to the Radial Climate and Forecasting data format standards that are used in these data sets. Throughout this report, references to ‘KAZRCOR’ should be taken to apply to the ‘KAZRCFRCOR’ VAP as well unless there is an explicit statement to the contrary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Expansion of Coccidioidomycosis Endemic Regions in the United States in Response to Climate Change

Coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever) is a fungal disease endemic to the southwestern United States. Across this region, temperature and precipitation influence the extent of the endemic region and number of Valley fever cases. Climate projections for the western United States indicate that temperatures will increase and precipitation patterns will shift, which may alter disease dynamics. We estimated the area potentially endemic to Valley fever using a climate niche model derived from contemporary climate and disease incidence data. We then used our model with projections of climate from Earth system models to assess how endemic areas will change during the 21st century. By 2100 in a high warming scenario, our model predicts that the area of climate-limited endemicity will more than double, the number of affected states will increase from 12 to 17, and the number of Valley fever cases will increase by 50%. The Valley fever endemic region will expand north into dry western states, including Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota. Precipitation will limit the disease from spreading into states farther east and along the central and northern Pacific coast. This is the first quantitative estimate of how climate change may influence Valley fever in the United States. Our predictive model of Valley fever endemicity may provide guidance to public health officials to establish disease surveillance programs and design mitigation efforts to limit the impacts of this disease.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stochastic nucleation processes and substrate abundance explain time-dependent freezing in supercooled droplets

Atmospheric immersion freezing (IF), a heterogeneous ice nucleation process where an ice nucleating particle (INP) is immersed in supercooled water, is a dominant ice formation pathway impacting the hydrological cycle and climate. Implementation of IF derived from field and laboratory data in cloud and climate models is difficult due to the high variability in spatio-temporal scales, INP composition, and morphological complexity. We demonstrate that IF can be consistently described by a stochastic nucleation process accounting for uncertainties in the INP surface area. This approach accounts for time-dependent freezing, a wide range of surface areas and challenges phenomenological descriptions typically used to interpret IF. The results have an immediate impact on the current description, interpretation, and experiments of IF and its implementation in models. The findings are in accord with nucleation theory, and thus should hold for any supercooled liquid material that nucleates in contact with a substrate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hardware Recommendations for Data Transfer Nodes

These recommendations are in regards to the LLNL Data Transfer Nodes (DTNs), which are used to transfer Climate Storage System (CSS) data between nodes of the ESGF grid. The hardware specifications listed are to be considered a base configuration for a node and can be enhanced in a variety of ways to suit a particular site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CRYSTAL/FACE

Droplet Measurement Technologies (DMT), under funding from NASA, participated in the CRYSTAL/FACE field campaign in July, 2002 with measurements of cirrus cloud hydrometeors in the size range from 0.5 to 1600 microns. The measurements were made with the DMT Cloud, Aerosol and Precipitation Spectrometer (CAPS) that was flown on NASA's WB57F. With the exception of the first research flight when the data system failed two hours into the mission, the measurement system performed almost flawlessly during the thirteen flights. The measurements from the CAPS have been essential for interpretation of cirrus cloud properties and their impact on climate. The CAPS data set has been used extensively by the CRYSTAL/FACE investigators and as of the date of this report, have been included in five published research articles, 10 conference presentations and six other journal articles currently in preparation.

Baumgardner, Darrel↗

Vadose zone monitoring at the radioactive waste management sites at the Nevada national security site - 15294

Two lysimeter facilities continuously monitor the vadose zone at the radioactive waste disposal sites at the Nevada National Security Site. The time-series data collected at these facilities support the performance assessments of the radioactive waste disposal sites, the closure cover designs, and the long-term monitoring decisions for these sites. The Weighing Lysimeter Facility at the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) consists of a bare-soil weighing lysimeter and a vegetated weighing lysimeter. The upper surfaces of both weighing lysimeters are exposed to precipitation. The Drainage Lysimeter Facility at the Area 3 RWMS includes bare-soil lysimeters that receive precipitation or precipitation supplemented with irrigation equal to double precipitation and vegetated lysimeters that have the same upper boundary conditions as the bare-soil lysimeters. Lysimeter sensors are connected to data-loggers that are accessed remotely for data acquisition. Lysimeter water balance measurements show the arid climate and native vegetation at the NNSS provide a natural sustainable system to effectively prevent transport of contaminants from the RWMSs through the vadose zone to groundwater. Transport by infiltration and percolation of present day precipitation at the RWMSs is prevented. The native desert vegetation is adapted to extract moisture from very dry soils and maintains negative matric potentials at the base of the root zone effectively buffering the deep vadose zone from episodic precipitation events at the surface. The very negative matric potential at the base of the root zone effectively intercepts all infiltration from precipitation and draws moisture upward from the vadose zone below the root zone. This system is sustainable because it does not rely on engineered features and mimics the stable landscapes and no groundwater recharge of the current condition surrounding the RWMSs. The system depends on establishing native vegetation in the covers above the waste cells and a stable climate. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Climate Change Adaptation Science Activities at NASA Johnson Space Center

The Johnson Space Center (JSC), located in the southeast metropolitan region of Houston, TX is the prime NASA center for human spaceflight operations and astronaut training, but it also houses the unique collection of returned extraterrestrial samples, including lunar samples from the Apollo missions. The Center's location adjacent to Clear Lake and the Clear Creek watershed, an estuary of Galveston Bay, puts it at direct annual risk from hurricanes, but also from a number of other climate-related hazards including drought, floods, sea level rise, heat waves, and high wind events all assigned Threat Levels of 2 or 3 in the most recent NASA Center Disaster/Risk Matrix produced by the Climate Adaptation Science Investigator Working Group. Based on prior CASI workshops at other NASA centers, it is recognized that JSC is highly vulnerable to climate-change related hazards and has a need for adaptation strategies. We will present an overview of prior CASI-related work at JSC, including publication of a climate change and adaptation informational data brochure, and a Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Risks Workshop that was held at JSC in early March 2012. Major outcomes of that workshop that form a basis for work going forward are 1) a realization that JSC is embedded in a regional environmental and social context, and that potential climate change effects and adaptation strategies will not, and should not, be constrained by the Center fence line; 2) a desire to coordinate data collection and adaptation planning activities with interested stakeholders to form a regional climate change adaptation center that could facilitate interaction with CASI; 3) recognition that there is a wide array of basic data (remotely sensed, in situ, GIS/mapping, and historical) available through JSC and other stakeholders, but this data is not yet centrally accessible for planning purposes.

Stefanov, William L.↗

NASA World Wind: Infrastructure for Spatial Data

The world has great need for analysis of Earth observation data, be it climate change, carbon monitoring, disaster response, national defense or simply local resource management. To best provide for spatial and time-dependent information analysis, the world benefits from an open standards and open source infrastructure for spatial data. In the spirit of NASA's motto "for the benefit of all" NASA invites the world community to collaboratively advance this core technology. The World Wind infrastructure for spatial data both unites and challenges the world for innovative solutions analyzing spatial data while also allowing absolute command and control over any respective information exchange medium.

Hogan, Patrick↗

The Worldwide C3S CORDEX Grand Ensemble: A Major Contribution to Assess Regional Climate Change in the IPCC AR6 Atlas

The collaboration between the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) provides open access to an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations, across the 14 CORDEX continental-scale domains, with global coverage. These simulations have been used as a new line of evidence to assess regional climate projections in the latest contribution of the Working Group I (WGI) to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), particularly in the regional chapters and the Atlas. Here, we present the work done in the framework of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) to assemble a consistent worldwide CORDEX grand ensemble, aligned with the deadlines and activities of IPCC AR6. This work addressed the uneven and heterogeneous availability of CORDEX ESGF data by supporting publication in CORDEX domains with few archived simulations and performing quality control. It also addressed the lack of comprehensive documentation by compiling information from all contributing regional models, allowing for an informed use of data. In addition to presenting the worldwide CORDEX dataset, we assess here its consistency for precipitation and temperature by comparing climate change signals in regions with overlapping CORDEX domains, obtaining overall coincident regional climate change signals. The C3S CORDEX dataset has been used for the assessment of regional climate change in the IPCC AR6 (and for the interactive Atlas) and is available through the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Satellites as Sentinels for Climate and Health

Remotely-sensed data and observations are providing powerful new tools for addressing climate and environment-related human health problems through increased capabilities for monitoring, risk mapping, and surveillance of parameters useful to such problems as vector- borne and infectious diseases, air and water quality,. harmful algal blooms, W radiation, contaminant and pathogen transport in air and water, and thermal stress. Remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIs), global positioning systems (GPS), improved computation capabilities, and interdisciplinary research between the Earth and health science communities, together with local knowledge, are being combined in rich collaborative efforts resulting in more rapid problem-solving, early warning, and prevention in global climate and health issues. These collaborative efforts are enabling increased understanding of the relationships among changes in temperature, rainfall, wind, soil moisture, solar radiation, vegetation, and the patterns of extreme weather events and health issues. This increased understanding and improved information and data sharing, in turn, empowers local health and environmental decision-makers to better predict climate-related health problems, decrease vulnerability, take preventive measures, and improve response actions. This paper provides a number of recent examples of how satellites - from their unique vantage point in space - can serve as sentinels for climate and health.

Maynard, Nancy G.↗

Final Report for “Simulating the Arctic Winter Longwave Indirect Effects. A New Parameterization for Frost Flower Aerosol Salt Emissions” (DESC0006679) for 9/15/2011 through 9/14/2015

Description of the Project: This project has improved the aerosol formulation in a global climate model by using innovative new field and laboratory observations to develop and implement a novel wind-driven sea ice aerosol flux parameterization. This work fills a critical gap in the understanding of clouds, aerosol, and radiation in polar regions by addressing one of the largest missing particle sources in aerosol-climate modeling. Recent measurements of Arctic organic and inorganic aerosol indicate that the largest source of natural aerosol during the Arctic winter is emitted from crystal structures, known as frost flowers, formed on a newly frozen sea ice surface [Shaw et al., 2010]. We have implemented the new parameterization in an updated climate model making it the first capable of investigating how polar natural aerosol-cloud indirect effects relate to this important and previously unrecognized sea ice source. The parameterization is constrained by Arctic ARM in situ cloud and radiation data. The modified climate model has been used to quantify the potential pan-Arctic radiative forcing and aerosol indirect effects due to this missing source. This research supported the work of one postdoc (Li Xu) for two years and contributed to the training and research of an undergraduate student. This research allowed us to establish a collaboration between SIO and PNNL in order to contribute the frost flower parameterization to the new ACME model. One peer-reviewed publications has already resulted from this work, and a manuscript for a second publication has been completed. Additional publications from the PNNL collaboration are expected to follow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global variation in the fraction of leaf nitrogen allocated to photosynthesis

Plants invest a considerable amount of leaf nitrogen in the photosynthetic enzyme ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase-oxygenase (RuBisCO), forming a strong coupling of nitrogen and photosynthetic capacity. Variability in the nitrogen-photosynthesis relationship indicates different nitrogen use strategies of plants (i.e., the fraction nitrogen allocated to RuBisCO; fLNR), however, the reason for this remains unclear as widely different nitrogen use strategies are adopted in photosynthesis models. Here, we use a comprehensive database of in situ observations, a remote sensing product of leaf chlorophyll and ancillary climate and soil data, to examine the global distribution in fLNR using a random forest model. We find global fLNR is 18.2 ± 6.2%, with its variation largely driven by negative dependence on leaf mass per area and positive dependence on leaf phosphorus. Some climate and soil factors (i.e., light, atmospheric dryness, soil pH, and sand) have considerable positive influences on fLNR regionally. This study provides insight into the nitrogen-photosynthesis relationship of plants globally and an improved understanding of the global distribution of photosynthetic potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA's Advancements in Space-Based Spectrometry Lead to Improvements in Weather Prediction and Understanding of Climate Processes

AIRS is a precision state of the art High Spectral Resolution Multi-detector IR grating array spectrometer that was launched into a polar orbit on EOS Aqua in 2002. AIRS measures most of the infra-red spectrum with very low noise from 650/cm to 2660/cm with a resolving power of 2400 at a spatial resolution of 13 km. The objectives of AIRS were to perform accurate determination of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles in up to 90% partial cloud cover conditions for the purpose of improving numerical weather prediction and understanding climate processes. AIRS data has also been used to determine accurate trace gas profiles. A brief overview of the retrieval methodology used to analyze AIRS observations under partial cloud cover will be presented and sample results will be shown from the weather and climate perspectives.

Susskind, Joel↗

Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts

Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. In this study, we present results from a common garden, climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine, a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low-elevation provenance had more than three-fold greater recruitment to their third year than seeds from a high-elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range and across climate manipulations. Heating halved recruitment to the third year of both low- and high-elevation seed sources across the elevation gradient, while watering more than doubled recruitment, alleviating some of the negative effects of heating. Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long-term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid postfire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low-elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiple centuries. In conclusion, our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species’ range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗