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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

The Impact of Flooding on Food Security Across Africa

Recent record rainfall and flood events have prompted increased attention to flood impacts on human systems. Information regarding flood effects on food security is of particular importance for humanitarian organizations and is especially valuable across Africa's rural areas that contribute to regional food supplies. We quantitatively evaluate where and to what extent flooding impacts food security across Africa, using a Granger causality analysis and panel modeling approaches. Within our modeled areas, we find that ∼12% of the people that experienced food insecurity from 2009 to 2020 had their food security status affected by flooding. Furthermore, flooding and its associated meteorological conditions can simultaneously degrade food security locally while enhancing it at regional spatial scales, leading to large variations in overall food security outcomes. Dedicated data collection at the intersection of flood events and associated food security measures across different spatial and temporal scales are required to better characterize the extent of flood impact and inform preparedness, response, and recovery needs.

Connor Reed↗

Technical Note: On Seasonal Variability of the M2 Tide

Seasonal variability of the M2 ocean tide can be detected at many ports, perhaps most. Examination of the cluster of tidal constituents residing within the M2 tidal group can shed light on the physical mechanisms underlying seasonality. In the broadest terms these are astronomical, frictional–advective interactions, and climate processes; some induce annual modulations and some semiannual, in amplitude, phase, or both. This note reviews how this occurs and gives an example from each broad category. Phase conventions and their relationship with causal mechanisms, as well as nomenclature, are also addressed.

Richard D Ray↗

Dissertation Defense: Three Papers on Organizational Decision-Making and Change at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

This is a three-paper dissertation that responds to a call for empirical research on stakeholder influence in the implementation of evaluation recommendations. The literature is consistent but mostly theoretical: stakeholder participation should positively influence and increase the probability of implementation (see e.g., Christie, 2011; Cousins & Earl, 1992; Fetterman, 2004). In response, I use two Goddard Space Flight Center engineering technical training and development programs to build a causal argument supporting my proposition that stakeholder influence in the logic modeling process impacts organizational decision-making and change. I first introduce the logic modeling process as a tool to involve stakeholders in program and evaluation design (paper 1); then use the data collection process to implement the collaboratively constructed logic model outcomes (paper 2); and, finally, I triangulate the data using the Toal (2009) Evaluation Involvement Scale (paper 3). I do this to “increase the validity of the findings” (Noble & Heale, 2019, p. 67) and to garner potential mechanisms. I found that stakeholder participation in the logic modeling process positively influenced the use of data to inform recommendations which in turn positively influenced implementation of evaluation recommendations. I identified the process itself as the mechanism and the key decision points as links or influencers. Potential factors included power and interest (measured by role) and time-on-job.

organizational decision-making↗

Is "Sleepy Supervision" the New "Drowsy Driving"?

Human error has been implicated as a causal factor in a large proportion of road accidents. Automated driving systems purport to mitigate this risk, but self-driving systems that allow a driver to entirely disengage from the driving task also require the driver to monitor the environment and take control when necessary. Given that sleep loss impairs monitoring performance and there is a high prevalence of sleep deficiency in modern society, we hypothesized that supervising a self-driving vehicle would unmask latent sleepiness compared to manually controlled driving among individuals following their typical sleep schedules. We found that participants felt sleepier, had more involuntary transitions to sleep, had slower reaction times and more attentional failures, and showed substantial modifications in brain synchronization during and following an autonomous drive compared to a manually controlled drive. Our findings suggest that the introduction of partial self-driving capabilities in vehicles has the potential to paradoxically increase accident risk.

sleepiness↗

The Impact (Influence) of Stakeholder Participation in the Logic Modeling Process: A Case Study from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

This is a three-paper dissertation that responds to a call for empirical research on stakeholder influence in the implementation of evaluation recommendations. The literature is consistent but mostly theoretical: stakeholder participation should positively influence and increase the probability of implementation (see e.g., Christie, 2011; Cousins and Earl, 1992); Fetterman, 2004). In response, I use two Goddard Space Flight Center engineering technical training and development programs to build a causal pathway argument supporting my proposition that stakeholder influence in the logic modeling process impacts organizational decision-making and change. I first introduce the logic modeling process as a tool to involve stakeholders in program and evaluation design (paper 1), then use the data collection process to implement the collaboratively constructed logic model outcomes (paper 2), and finally, I triangulate the data using the Toal (2009) Evaluation Involvement Scale (paper 3). I do this to “increase the validity of the findings” (Noble & Heale, 2019, p. 67) and to garner potential mechanisms. I found that stakeholder participation in the logic modeling process positively influenced the use of data to inform recommendations which in turn positively influenced implementation of evaluation recommendations. I identified the process itself as the mechanism and the key decision points as links or influencers. Potential factors included power and interest (measured by role) and time-on-job.

Organizational Decision-Making↗

Defining Collaborative Control Interactions Using Systems Theory

Human teams collaborate by establishing roles, changing functional authorities, maintaining team cognition, coordinating, and mutually helping one another close control loops. These complex inter-actions are inspiring novel concepts to improve human-machine and multi-machine collaboration. However, these new systems face engineering gaps in modeling, analysis, design, and assurance. As such, few have been fielded in safety-critical domains like aerospace. To analyze safety, this paper introduces a system-theoretic framework to describe interactions that are—or are planned to be—used in multi-controller systems. It outlines a taxonomy of seven structural dimensions that influence controller interactions and nine dynamics observed in collaborative control that are defined using Systems Theory. An analyzed set of 101 controller interactions in aerospace systems demonstrates how to apply the framework and that designers are trying to create more sophisticated systems. This framework provides the foundation to extend system-theoretic hazard analysis techniques to systematically find collabora-tive-control causal factors.

Human machine teaming↗

Risks of Increased Earth Independence

As human space exploration begins to extend beyond the immediate vicinity of Earth, the ability of expertise on the ground to support operations will progressively decrease. Ground control expertise has been the primary countermeasure preventing loss of life and mission over the past sixty years and it will be gradually stripped away as expeditions reach further into space. The large, flexible and adaptive teams of experts on the ground, provide not only engineering analysis and problem-solving but also greatly increased work capacity. Monitoring of the large and fast moving stream of telemetry data is carried out around the clock by 20-30 flight controllers per shift. Analysis of that data and troubleshooting is carried out by an additional 50-100 engineers per shift. Artificial intelligence capabilities will need to be part of the solution but will not the entire solution. As progress continues to be made on intelligent systems, especially those for use in complex, dynamic environments where humans will remain a part of the activity, there is an ever increasing need to focus on how those systems will interact with the humans. Although capabilities such as natural language processing and facial recognition have become common place, even basic aspects of problem-solving, causal reasoning and generative decision-making remain well-beyond of our current capabilities. Advanced data visualization, procedure execution support, and new training approaches will be needed to close the gap between what is currently provided by experts on the ground and what the crew will need to do in increasingly autonomous ways with greater distance from Earth.

human-systems integration architecture↗

Information Systems Technology for NASA Earth Systems Digital Twins (ESDT)

The term “Digital Twin” was first used in 2002 for product lifecycle management. Since then, Digital Twin concepts have been proposed in various domains until very recently for Earth Science. For NASA’s Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program, an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) is defined as composed of three components: 1. A Digital Replica, i.e., an integrated picture of the past and current states of Earth systems 2. Forecasting capabilities, providing an integrated picture of how Earth systems will evolve in the future from the current state 3. Impact Assessment capabilities, providing an integrated picture of how Earth systems could evolve under different hypothetical what-if scenarios. Developing such a vision will require technologies related to: integrating continuous observations from various disparate sources; developing frameworks that builds on inter-connected models; improving the speed and accuracy of integrated prediction, analysis and visualization capabilities (e.g., by using machine learning); and utilizing causality and uncertainty quantification to improve our understanding of the evolution of Earth Science systems as a function of their interactions with other Earth and human systems. In addition, AIST is also investigating interoperability standards to federate multiple Digital Twins, as well as computational resources required by those systems.

Earth Science Remote Sensing; Information Systems↗

People are the Weak Link in the System.

People are often considered the "weak link" in every system. It is assumed that there is a causal "chain" of events, and each link in the chain provides some protection against failure. In this notion, the chain is only as strong as its weakest link and people are often blamed for failures. It's true that failures can be traced to human limitation, but what's more important is that all successes, all safe operations are the result of human capabilities. This talk highlights the resilience people bring to aviation operations and discusses ways to change the common narrative that people are only the source of error and failure.

operations↗

Effect of Varying HUT Sizing on Human-Spacesuit Contact Patterns

Fit, comfort, and mobility of the spacesuit rely on the location, magnitude, and type of contact between the suit and wearer. Typically, spacesuits include the Hard Upper Torso (HUT) comprising the upper torso of the spacesuit. Potential injuries from hard contact between the wearer’s shoulders and the HUT are a concern; therefore, to investigate spacesuit-wearer contact patterns, data from a retrospective study was analyzed. This study had eight subjects wearing the Shuttle Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) spacesuit in two configurations, one with a nominally sized HUT and another with an oversized HUT. The subjects were sized per the NASA standard suit fit procedure. The suit’s arms and lower body were also resized to provide nominal arm and lower body fit, accounting for the larger HUT. Subjects held various shoulder postures (neutral posture, and various maximum shoulder rotations) with the suit pressurized to 4.3 PSI. For each posture, subjects reported the intensity of their perceived contact with the suit on a Borg CR10 scale, 0 indicating a non-existent contact intensity, and 10 representing a maximal contact intensity. Ratings were recorded for 11 regions covering the upper body and these ratings were used to determine the impact of body shape and size on suit contact. Our preliminary findings suggest that oversized HUTs had less contact regions than compared to the nominal HUT; and the region of contact, contact patterns, and contact intensities varied from person to person with the oversized HUT. This variance could be linked to subjects’ body shape and size. The next goal is to establish a causal factor between body shape and size, pose, contact region, and the HUT size. The outcome is expected to help understand the overall contact trends and insights into the influence of HUT sizing on suit fit.

Will Green↗

Investigating the Strength and Variability of El Niño Southern Oscillation Teleconnections to Hydroclimate and Maize Yields in Southern and East Africa

The state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is critical for seasonal climate forecasts, but recent events diverged substantially from expectations in many regions, including Sub-Saharan Africa where seasonal forecasts are critical tools for addressing food security. Here, we evaluate 39 years (1982–2020) of data on hydroclimate, leaf area index, and maize yields to investigate the strength of ENSO teleconnections in southern and East Africa. Teleconnections to precipitation, soil moisture, and leaf area index are generally stronger during ENSO phases that cause drought conditions (El Niño in southern Africa and La Niña in East Africa), with seasonality that aligns well with the maize growing seasons. Within maize growing areas, however, ENSO teleconnections to hydroclimate and vegetation are generally weaker compared to the broader geographic regions, especially in East Africa. There is also little evidence that the magnitude of the ENSO event affects the hydroclimate or vegetation response in these maize regions. Maize yields in Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, and Zimbabwe all correlate significantly with hydroclimate and leaf area index, with South Africa and Zimbabwe showing the strongest and most consistent yield responses to ENSO events. Our results highlight the chain of causality from El Niño and La Niña forcing of regional anomalies in hydroclimate to vegetation health and maize yields in southern and East Africa. The large spread across individual ENSO events, however, underscores the limitations of this climate mode for seasonal climate prediction in the region, and the importance of finding additional sources of skill for improving climate and yield forecasts.

El Niño Southern Oscillation↗

System-Theoretic Analysis of Unsafe Collaborative Control in Teaming Systems

The interactions that occur in human-teaming are inspiring novel aerospace designs aimed at improving how humans and machines, or multiple machines, work together. Unfortunately, current Systems Engineering processes are ill-equipped to handle these complex relationships and are unable to design and assure the safety for these systems. To close part of this gap, this paper introduces a novel system-theoretic analytical process to identify unsafe collaborative control actions. It is part of a broader set of techniques that extend the state-of-the-art in hazard analysis, System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), to systematically address collaboration. The method rigorously expresses the different ways multiple commands may be unsafe together. Using Systems Theory, it employs abstraction to manage the combinatorial complexity in enumerating control contributions from multiple collaborating components. An algorithm integrates these concepts into an end-to-end process and is supported by automation to enumerate, refine, prune, and prioritize unsafe combinations of control actions. The output of the method feeds the specification of system requirements to implement safety-guided design starting early in concept development. The process is demonstrated on a manned-unmanned aircraft teaming case study and finds new causal factors that were not previously found in a past hazard analysis of the same system.

System Safety↗

Autonomous Ocean World Exploration: Advancement of a Virtual Testbed

The search for life (extinct or extant) and potentially habitable bodies in our solar system and beyond is one of the 12 priority science questions outlined in the National Acadamies’ 2022 decadal survey [5]. Extraterrestrial destinations containing liquid water present an opportunity to search for life as we know it, and in recent years an increasing number of such locations have been discovered within our solar system. Several Jovian moons—Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto [10]—and the Saturnian moons Enceladus [8] and Titan [9] are known or suspected to harbor massive subsurface oceans. Of these "ocean worlds", Europa is the focus of at least one planned NASA orbiter mission, Europa Clipper [4], and an early lander mission concept, the Europa Lander [2, 3]. Whereas most robotic missions to the Moon and Mars (e.g. orbiters, rovers, landers) to date have had ground controllers on Earth tightly involved in mission operations, missions to more distant worlds will require a high degree of onboard autonomy due to long communication lags and blackouts, harsh environments (radiation, cold), and more limited battery and hardware life. The past decade has seen great advances in both AI technologies and computing scalability and performance that offer promising solutions for spacecraft autonomy and motivate the software system and research programs described in this paper. The Ocean Worlds Autonomy Testbed for Exploration, Research, and Simulation (OceanWATERS) [1], which has been in development at the NASA Ames Research Center since 2018, is a virtual environment for testing lander autonomy solutions. It is built on the Robot Operating System (ROS), runs on consumer-grade Linux workstations, and was released as open source in 2020. OceanWATERS provides a physical and visual simulation of a prototypical lander in a Europa-like environment (Figure 1). The lander was modeled after requirements and specifications made in JPL’s Europa Lander Study of 2016 [3]. Simulated lander systems include stereo cameras and spotlights mounted on an antenna mast that pans and tilts, a 6 degrees of freedom (DoF) robotic arm with a force-torque sensor and two interchangeable end effectors, and a battery pack power system. The environment consists of multiple terrain models including a highly detailed model sourced from the FROST dataset [11], simulation of surrounding planetary bodies based on an ephemeris model, and lighting from the sun with associated surface illumination, reflectance, and shadows. Operations supported by OceanWATERS include panoramic and directed imaging of the environment and lander workspace, Cartesian and joint-level arm commanding, grinding of the terrain surface (e.g. digging a trench), and scooping of ground material (Figure 2) which can be discarded or collected as science samples in a receptacle that can be emptied (science operations themselves are not simulated). These operations are realized as ROS Actions and are complimented by a wide selection of telemetry that is continually produced by each lander subsystem. The power system model is driven by the open-source Generic Software Architecture for Prognostics (GSAP) [11] that predicts the battery’s remaining useful life and other characteristics. As a testbed for high-level autonomy, OceanWATERS provides an execution framework based on PLEXIL [12], an open-source plan specification language and execution engine developed largely at Ames. NASA's initial development of OceanWATERS, as well the Ocean Worlds Lander Autonomy Testbed (OWLAT) [6], a complimentary physical testbed developed at JPL, was the first step in a plan for realizing candidate onboard autonomy solutions for such planetary landers. In 2020 NASA solicited applications for its Autonomous Robotics Research for Ocean Worlds (ARROW) program, and in 2021 the similar Concepts for Ocean worlds Life Detection Technology (COLDTech) program. Collectively six research teams, based in universities and companies across the United States, were awarded grants to develop and demonstrate autonomy solutions on OceanWATERS and OWLAT. These 1–2-year projects have now finished or are nearing completion, and a wide variety of autonomy challenges in ocean world surface missions were addressed. Prototyped and demonstrated solutions have included autonomous discovery, response and adaptation to system faults and unexpected environmental events, world model synthesis through perception, plan synthesis using learned models, methods to optimize sample target selection and prioritize science data transmission, extension of PLEXIL for stochastic decision-making, and an integration of a model of JPL’s mission-ready COLDArm [7]. Technologies used in these projects include many forms of machine learning, causal reasoning, automated planning, Markov decision processes, formal methods, and other advanced techniques. A more detailed summary of the ARROW and COLDTech projects is given herein. OceanWATERS has had significant enhancements since its open-source release in 2020. Many of its new features were driven or shaped by feedback from the ARROW and COLDTech teams and requirements of their projects. In support of enabling autonomous adaptation to spacecraft faults (a specific capability solicited by both programs), a fault injection and detection framework was developed that supports a wide and growing range of fault types such as locked joints, image loss, and battery failures. The power system model was completed and integrated into the simulator, starting as a single-cell battery model and later upgraded to a multi-cell model with associated faults such as cell disconnection. Arm/terrain interaction was improved by adding a force-torque sensor and associated faults, and an analytic dig force model based on the Balovnev bucket force equations. Environment fidelity was increased by modeling terrain deformation resulting from digging and scooping; visual improvements were made in textures, lighting, and shadows. To facilitate interoperation with OWLAT, a unified command and telemetry interface between the testbeds was developed at the ROS level, along with a PLEXIL interface. The number of lander operations was greatly expanded (e.g. with Cartesian-based arm and antenna movement), and a framework was designed for users to build their own lander actions. A GUI for PLEXIL plan selection was created (Figure 3), and an expansive set of plans were added, such as those that illustrate patterns for fault handling. This paper provides a self-contained high-level description of OceanWATERS, focusing on more detailed coverage of the aforementioned enhancements. It provides a high-level summary of the projects undertaken by participants in the ARROW and COLDTech programs and how these efforts have helped shape OceanWATERS. Finally, potential future work and directions for the testbed are listed, as likely informed by the recent planetary science decadal survey [5].

K Michael Dalal↗

NASA Earth Systems Digital Twins (ESDT)

"Similarly to artificial intelligence, which is now revolutionizing many aspects of our daily lives, Earth system digital twin technologies have the potential to revolutionize the way Earth Science research will be conducted in the future, and how results and knowledge from this research will provide information to support decision making and yield impactful societal benefits. An Earth System Digital Twin or ESDT is a dynamic and interactive information system that first provides a digital replica of the past and current states of the Earth or Earth system as accurately and timely as possible; second, allows for computing forecasts of future states under nominal assumptions and based on the current replica; and third, offers the capability to investigate many hypothetical scenarios under varying impact assumptions. In other words, an ESDT provides the integrated What-Now, What-Next, and What-If pictures of the Earth or Earth system, by continuously ingesting newly observed data and by leveraging multiple interconnected models, machine learning as well advanced computing and visualization capabilities. Digital twins have been developed in engineering since 2002, but the interest in digital twins for the Earth domain is more recent and stems from the convergence of several developments: - The huge amount of diverse data that has now been collected continuously for more than 50 years, and that is becoming more and more difficult to access, understand, and utilize. - At the same time, because of climate change and its impacts the information produced by all of this data is becoming of interest to many new non-traditional users for analyzing and predicting various phenomena. - Because of advances in computational and visualization capabilities and the parallel unprecedented development of machine learning (ML), extracting relevant information from these large amounts of data and running complex models faster has become possible. As a result, it is becoming necessary and possible to build intuitive and interactive frameworks that will enable users with various skill levels and/or organizational hierarchy levels to easily access large amounts of targeted information along with the relevant tools and models (Earth system and human activity models), to support them in analyzing and visualizing this information, to help them understand interactions among models, to visualize the potential outcomes of various impacts, and to support decision or policy making. The full power of digital twins is that, through an integrated representation and standardized tools and software technologies, the same digital replica can address the needs of multiple users at various resolutions (spatial and temporal) and for various applications (science, economic, policy, etc.) – “from farmer to scientist”. With all these interests at stake, the challenges of building optimal digital twins are many and complex. The first challenge is to determine if a Digital Twin should be global or local, and multi-domain or thematic. For example, some domains such as Climate or Weather will require a global Digital Twin or Digital Twin capabilities while science areas such as Biodiversity might be more local. We can also envision that multiple thematic ESDTs, e.g., Air Quality, Wildfires, Hydrology could be federated or provide input to other ESDTs, either on a regional level or to a more global ESDT. Overall, we can imagine a future “web” of Digital Twins co-existing in a hierarchy or in a network, and capable of being connected or federated depending on the needs. This last point brings up the very important challenge of interoperability, including standards and protocols that will need to be built into these systems from the beginning. Each individual digital twin would have full flexibility in internal construction but would need standards-based interfaces (input and output) or hooks to make it compatible with others. Another challenge when building digital twins will be to decide how to organize each digital replica. Based on the applications targeted by the DT under implementation, various amounts and types of raw data, Analysis Ready Data (ARD) and information will need to be incorporated. Depending on the required latencies and needs of the users, various solutions can be considered, including Data Cubes, Data Lakes, pointers, or computing information on demand. We envision that each ESDT will choose a solution adapted to its specific objectives. Another important challenge is the type(s) of visualization that will be used, as well as the level of interactivity and refresh rate that will be required. Again, this will depend on the objectives of the ESDT, but also on the various users’ needs. In most cases, several types of visualizations and human interfaces will need to be offered depending on the projected users of that system. In parallel to the challenges highlighted above, there are also many tools and technologies that will need to be developed or improved for all types of digital twins. Among those are improved machine learning technologies, for example providing explainability, but also ML techniques for causality and providing a better integration of physics models. Additionally, reliable uncertainty quantification methods will be needed for all ESDT components, from validating data fusion and assimilation to assessing the accuracy of ML models and weighing the values of decisions supported by those systems. This presentation introduces the ESDT concept, presents several ESDT use cases, and a proposed ESDT architecture framework, as well as various technologies being developed by the Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program."

Earth Science Remote Sensing; Information Systems↗

Human Systems Risk Network - A Ranking Analysis of Risks

INTRODUCTION The Human Systems Risk Board (HSRB) is responsible for understanding, managing, and mitigating the risks associated with spaceflight. For a particular mission, the HSRB assigns each human system risk a rating on a 5x5 grid assessing its likelihood and consequence, which is ultimately used to compare and rank the risks. The HSRB approaches risk management by primarily establishing the context of each human system risk individually with the understanding that mitigating one risk might affect the likelihood, consequence, and mitigation approaches of another. To support this effort the HSRB, subject matter experts, and risk custodian teams created directed acyclic graphs (DAG), often called a causal graph, for the twenty-nine risks. In this presentation, we propose a new ranking algorithm for the risks which includes the downstream influence of each risk according to the information in the DAGs and provide an application of graph theoretic tools. METHODS In 2014, Mindock and Klaus proposed a taxonomy for human system risk influences which we have adopted to categorize the nodes in each DAG. Analyzing the nodes that correspond to the risks in this taxonomy allows us to analyze and understand how each risk influences the others. We construct an auxiliary network, which we call the Primary Risk Network (PRN), where the nodes are the twenty-nine space flight risks and, a directed edge connects Risk A to Risk B if Risk A has some influence on the likelihood or consequence of Risk B as described in the DAGS. We perform a variety of graph theoretic ranking methods on the nodes (or risks) in the PRN, including Katz centrality. RESULTS We rank the nodes in the PRN using the Katz centrality score. The ten risks with the highest score are pictured in Figure 1, colored (light to dark) according to their score. We analyze other centrality measures like betweenness centrality, eigenvector centrality, and the Estrada index, and provide the meaning of the corresponding rankings in terms of the risks. Future work includes analyzing the other categories in the taxonomy defined by Mindock and Klaus [1]. For example, we are interested in analyzing the nodes that are labeled as countermeasures or capabilities and perform similar analysis to measure their effect on certain medical conditions.

dag↗

Nondestructive Evaluation and In-Situ Monitoring Efforts for Additive Manufacturing

Nondestructive evaluation (NDE) is required to determine the quality of additive manufactured (AM) parts due to the inherent variability of AM processes. In-situ monitoring technologies endeavor to characterize the process and part quality during production. Qualifying an in-situ monitoring technology requires a proven, causal correlation between indications in the monitoring data and flaws in the finished part.

James Mavo↗

General Circulation Models Simulate Negative Liquid Water Path­–Droplet Number Correlations, but Anthropogenic Aerosols Still Increase Simulated Liquid Water Path

General circulation models' (GCMs) estimates of the liquid water path adjustment to anthropogenic aerosol emissions differ in sign from other lines of evidence. This reduces confidence in estimates of the effective radiative forcing of the climate by aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci). The discrepancy is thought to stem in part from GCMs' inability to represent the turbulence–microphysics interactions in cloud-top entrainment, a mechanism that leads to a reduction in liquid water in response to an anthropogenic increase in aerosols. In the real atmosphere, enhanced cloud-top entrainment is thought to be the dominant adjustment mechanism for liquid water path, weakening the overall ERFaci. We show that the latest generation of GCMs includes models that produce a negative correlation between the present-day cloud droplet number and liquid water path, a key piece of observational evidence supporting liquid water path reduction by anthropogenic aerosols and one that earlier-generation GCMs could not reproduce. However, even in GCMs with this negative correlation, the increase in anthropogenic aerosols from preindustrial to present-day values still leads to an increase in the simulated liquid water path due to the parameterized precipitation suppression mechanism. This adds to the evidence that correlations in the present-day climate are not necessarily causal. We investigate sources of confounding to explain the noncausal correlation between liquid water path and droplet number. These results are a reminder that assessments of climate parameters based on multiple lines of evidence must carefully consider the complementary strengths of different lines when the lines disagree.

General circulation models↗

Evaluation of a Combined Drought Indicator Against Crop Yield Estimations and Simulations Over the Argentine Humid Pampas

Droughts pose serious threats to the agricultural sector, especially in rainfed-dominated agricultural regions like those in Argentina’s Humid Pampas. This region was recently impacted by slow-evolving and long-lasting droughts as well as by flash droughts, resulting in losses reaching thousands of millions of US dollars. Improvements of drought early warning systems are essential, particularly given the projected increase in drought frequency and severity over southern South America. The spatial and temporal relationship between precipitation deficits, soil moisture and vegetation health anomalies are crucial for better understanding and representation of the agricultural droughts and their impacts. In this context, the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) considers the causal and time-lagged relationship of these three variables. The study’s objective is twofold: (1) Analyze the time-lagged response between precipitation deficits, soil moisture and satellite fAPAR anomalies; and (2) Evaluate the CDI’s capability to characterize the severity of drought events on the Humid Pampas against agricultural yield estimations and simulations, as well as agricultural emergency declarations. The correlation among the variables shows strong spatial variability. The highest Pearson correlation values (r > 0.42) are observed over parts of the Humid Pampas for time lags of 0, 10, and 20 days between the variables. Although the CDI has limitations, such as its coarse spatial resolution and monthly temporal resolution of precipitation data, it effectively tracks the progression of major drought events in the region. The CDI’s performance aligns well with estimations and simulations of soybean and corn yields, as well as official declarations of agricultural emergencies. Insights from this study also provide a basis for discussing potential improvements to the CDI. This study highlights the global and regional significance of evaluating and enhancing the CDI for effective drought monitoring, emphasizing the role of collaborative efforts for future advancements in drought early warning systems.

Combined Drought Indicator↗