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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Metrics for County-Level Resilience Ranking Using Entropy and TOPSIS

In the face of atypical weather events, power infrastructure failures, and limited resources for resilience investment, energy decision-makers need data-driven metrics to allocate resilience investments and maximize the reduction of power outage impacts. For state-level planning, for instance, ranking the resilience of each county is key to ensuring effective distribution of resources. In such cases, resilience for each spatial unit is multifaceted and is captured by a set of indicators (i.e., metrics) that can be combined into an overall score that reduces the complexity of power outage dynamics to a single decision metric. However, weighting of these indicators is often addressed by simplifying assumptions (i.e., equal weights) or semi-subjective methods that rely on user-defined weights that can introduce biases (e.g., weighted average score). Within the disaster risk reduction and resilience engineering community, a recurring challenge in multicriteria decision-making is the objective weighting of indicators for composite indices. To address this issue, we have leveraged a Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) combined with an entropy-based weighting approach to calculated the integrated scores. This method objectively determines the importance of each metric, better discerns between spatial units (i.e., counties), and offers a more reliable ranking of counties according to their relative resilience attributes. By improving methods for integrating resilience indicators, our approach helps planners and decision-makers prioritize resources more effectively for more efficient resilience investments.

Bhusal, Narayan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗
DOE OSTI2021

Methane Mitigation Thermoelectric Generator (MMTEG) (Final Scientific/ Technical Report)

Gas Technology Institute (GTI) has completed a $1.815M (plus $500K cost share), 54-month Co-operative agreement with the Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory to develop a Methane Mitigation Thermoelectric Generator (MMTEG) system for gas field applications. This novel system uses fugitive gas to produce electrical power and consists of Thermoelectric Generators (TEG) driven by a linear burner, an air compressor, an accumulator, valves, batteries, and power electronics. The electrical power generated by the system is used to compress air and, in turn, the air is used to operate the pneumatic valves at the well site instead of using natural gas (NG) which would then be vented. The team completed the project objectives which included (1) Design, fabricate and test an integrated 6We nominal MMTEG prototype system, (2) Design a “retrofit kit” MMTEG system capable of being field tested at a gas well production site, and (3) build and test the field MMTEG system in a laboratory environment. Multiple system options were developed prior to selecting a “Passive” system which meets cost, NG savings, and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets although not as efficient as initially planned. The MMTEG system is built primarily from commercial off-the-shelf parts (in some cases re-purposed) including the heat exchanger, heat rejection, electronic components, and also the TEGs. The team developed and implemented a novel system including the control system developed by Morrison Applied Sciences (MAS). The team completed incremental demonstrations of the hardware prior to the MMTEG system demonstration. A one-year simulation of the air delivery and battery charging subsystems was completed prior to the integration into the MMTEG system. In addition, the team simulated two-years of thermal cycles for integrated Burner/TEG/heat rejection subsystem. Finally, the entire MMTEG system was assembled, and troubleshooting was completed over a two-week period. Next, the MMTEG system was tested to simulate over 15 weeks of entire system operation over approximately four weeks in an accelerated test fashion with minimal intervention (such as changing fuel tanks). The MMTEG system met the key goals of a unit cost of under $1500 while saving 97% of NG expended today (including leakage) on average by pneumatic systems venting to the atmosphere. The MMTEG system reduced GHG emissions by 1000X (using the methane intensification factor of 28 relative to CO2). GTI is currently pursuing a field test of the MMTEG system. Interfacing with producers has provided additional insight into system improvements. Planned improvements include additional weather protection and control system improvements including the implementation of a long- range radio capability to notify operators if there is a fault.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Beyond Price Taker: Optimizing Integrated Energy Systems Considering Market/Grid Interactions

Integrated Energy Systems (IES) combine two or more processes to increase the efficiency, flexibility of operation, and the overall reliability. However, analyzing IESs in volatile electricity markets is challenging, since the volatility in electricity prices makes the conventional levelized cost-type analysis less realistic. This work presents two approaches to address the challenge: price-taker and a surrogates-based approach for incorporating market interactions. The price-taker approach formulates a multiperiod optimization problem that takes the time-varying electricity prices into account, and solves the optimization problem to determine the optimal operational schedule that maximizes the chosen economic metric. This approach is successfully applied to investigate the performance of flexible power and hydrogen co-production systems. The market surrogates approach trains a machine learning model to predict the market behavior as a function of the characteristics of the IES. The trained surrogate model is used to optimize the design and operation of the given IES in an electricity market. This approach is demonstrated on a case study involving a nuclear power plant retrofitted with a low-temperature electrolysis unit to co-produce power and hydrogen.

beyond price taker↗
DOE OSTI2023

Verification and validation of the open-source plasma fluid code: Zapdos

Zapdos is an open-source finite element plasma fluid solver based on the MOOSE multiphysics framework. This paper outlines Zapdos verification, benchmarking, and validation efforts for 1D and 2D RF capacitively coupled plasma discharge models for mid-range pressures (0.1 - 1 Torr). The verification process involved using the method of manufactured solutions to assess Zapdos spatial and temporal error convergence. L2 errors ranged from 10 -2 to 10 -4 , while the convergence’s slope were in agreement with the predicted slopes for the tested variable and time integration orders. The benchmarking process involved comparisons to previously results from the validated finite element code, LSODI. These works included 1D and 2D simulations for a range of plasma parameters (densities, temperatures, voltage, etc.). For the 1D cases, Zapdos and LSODI results were in very good agreement. In the 2D cases, variable behaviors matched, with slight discrepancies in peak values. The validation process involved comparisons to experimental works including electron density measurements by microwave interferometry and metastable density measurements by planar laser-induced fluorescence imaging. Results shown reasonable agreement at higher pressure, with results starting to diverge at low pressures. Furthermore, probable causes for this diverges are the limitation of the fluid assumption for plasmas at low pressure, or the need for more robust boundary conditions. Overall, Zapdos shown reasonable results for the verification, benchmarking, and validation efforts, and Zapdos can be downloaded at https://github.com/shannon-lab/zapdos.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing district energy systems under uncertainty: Insights from a case study from Washington D.C., USA

This study investigates solutions for delivering affordable heating and cooling to a brownfield site, focusing on a case study in Washington, DC. Moving towards more diverse and resilient energy systems, we identify the optimal portfolio for a district energy system with diverse energy sources to meet the area’s energy demands. Our methodological approach integrates two detailed models: one calculating building-level energy demand and the other optimizing district energy technology choices based on their demand profiles, accounting for uncertainties in energy prices, policies, and other parameters. The results provide an economic comparison of district and individual supply options at the building level, emphasizing the flexibility district systems can offer to the electricity sector. District energy systems demonstrate cost-stabilization benefits amidst volatile energy prices and external uncertainties. For heating, district systems yield significant cost savings compared to individual solutions, driven by fuel flexibility and the use of local renewable energy sources. For cooling, district systems also show advantages, though individual systems may remain more cost-effective for smaller buildings. Additionally, district systems exhibit considerable flexibility on the heating side, as evidenced by variations in electricity consumption. We recommend future research to explore the relationship between the economics of district energy systems, particularly at the building level, and their flexibility potential for the electricity sector across diverse geographic contexts to reduce overall grid costs and promote grid reliability. This includes areas with distinct zoning laws, municipal priorities, utility structures, and funding mechanisms, such as the United States, and regions like Europe with pronounced electricity price volatility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inference of Rock Flow and Mechanical Properties from Injection-Induced Microseismic Events During Geologic CO 2 Storage

Monitoring microseismic activities during CO 2 injection into geologic formations is important for ensuring the safety of the storage operations. The resulting data provide insight into the response of the storage formation to CO 2 injection and can be used to infer the underlying rock flow and mechanical properties. In this paper, assimilation of microseismic data is performed for dynamic characterization of the storage formation by using a stochastic simulation model to forecast the microseismic response of a geologic formation during CO 2 injection. Two modeling approaches are adopted to predict the space-time distribution of the injection-induced microseismicity. The first model is based on pore pressure relaxation assumption, while the second model uses coupled flow and geomechanics simulation to establish the complex physical relation between the storage formation properties and the corresponding microseismic responses during CO 2 injection. The stochastic predictive models in each case are used in ensemble data assimilation frameworks to estimate rock properties from the observed microseismic data. Two data assimilation methods are considered: (i) a new ensemble-based stochastic point process filter (EnPPF) that can directly integrate discrete microseismic events, and (ii) a variant of ensemble smoother, known as the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA), which requires continuous representation of microseismic events for assimilation. The two methods are successfully applied to a geologically realistic model of the Farnsworth Field in Texas, with complex geologic flow units and interacting fault systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward the application of the Risk-Based Maintenance approach to a hydrogen-fueled manufacturing plant

Safety, reliability, and maintenance of hydrogen-based equipment, including Risk-Based Maintenance (RBM), have recently gained increasing attention, as hydrogen, while key to decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors, raises safety concerns. However, two literature gaps limit the development of risk-based strategies for hydrogen technologies. First, existing RBM methodologies do not account for hydrogen-specific components, such as electrolyzers, which differ from conventional equipment. Second, available studies on electrolyzer reliability remain largely qualitative or laboratory-scale. This study addresses these gaps by proposing an adapted RBM methodology tailored to hydrogen-fueled manufacturing facilities. Integrating qualitative tools (e.g., FMEA) with probabilistic models (e.g., Bayesian Networks) enables comprehensive hazardous scenarios identification and likelihood estimation. A conceptual layout of a glass furnace supplied by a 3 MW PEM electrolyzer is considered as a case study to demonstrate the feasibility of the adapted RBM framework in identifying high-risk components and enabling maintenance prioritization, potentially improving plant safety.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards data-driven constitutive modelling for granular materials via micromechanics-informed deep learning

The analytical description of path-dependent elastic-plastic responses of a granular system is highly complicated because of continuously evolving microstructures and strain localisation within the system undergoing deformation. This study offers an alternative to the current analytical paradigm by developing micromechanics-informed machine-learning based constitutive modelling approaches for granular materials. A set of critical variables associated with the constitutive behaviour of granular materials are identified through an incremental stress-strain relationship analysis. Depending on the strategy to exploit the priori micromechanical knowledge, three different training strategies are explored. The first model uses only the measurable external variables to make stress predictions; the second model utilises a directed graph to link all the external strain sequences and internal microstructural evolution variables into a single prediction model comprised of a series of sub-mappings, and the third model explicitly integrates the physically important non-temporal properties with external strain paths into training through an enhanced Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). These three models show satisfactory agreement with unseen test specimens based on multi-directional loading cases. The basic features and potential applications of each model are explained. Lastly, the key factors for constitutive training and limitations of the current work are also discussed in detail.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Asymptotic-preserving dynamical low-rank method for the stiff nonlinear Boltzmann equation

In kinetic theory, numerically solving the full Boltzmann equation is extremely expensive. This is because the Boltzmann collision operator involves a high-dimensional, nonlinear integral that must be evaluated at each spatial grid point and every time step. The challenge becomes even more pronounced in the fluid (strong collisionality) regime, where the collision operator exhibits strong stiffness, causing explicit time integrators to impose severe stability restrictions. In this paper, we propose addressing this problem through a dynamical low-rank (DLR) approximation. The resulting algorithm requires evaluating the Boltzmann collision operator only r 2 times, where r, the rank of the approximation, is much smaller than the number of spatial grid points. We propose a novel DLR integrator, called the XL integrator, which reduces the number of steps compared to the available alternatives (such as the projector splitting or basis update & Galerkin (BUG) integrator). For a class of problems including the Boltzmann collision operator which enjoys a separation property between physical and velocity space, we further propose a specialized version of the XL integrator, called the sXL integrator. This version requires solving only one differential equation to update the low-rank factors. Furthermore, the proposed low-rank schemes are asymptotic-preserving, meaning they can capture the asymptotic fluid limit in the case of strong collisionality. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed methods across a wide range of regimes, from non-stiff (kinetic) to stiff (fluid).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Metal Ion Assignment Accuracy in Protein Data Bank Models via Elemental Spectroscopy

Accurate representation of metal ions in macromolecular structures is critical for chemical interpretation, computational modeling, and machine-learning methods that rely on Protein Data Bank (PDB) entries. However, the elemental identity of metals modeled in crystallographic structures is often inferred indirectly and rarely validated experimentally. Here, we combine Particle Induced X-ray Emission (PIXE) and X-ray Fluorescence Spectroscopy (XRFS) to determine the elemental composition of protein samples used to generate 70 deposited metalloprotein crystal structures. By analyzing the original protein material employed for crystallization, but before the addition of crystallization buffer solutions, we assess whether the modeled metal ions in deposited structures are consistent with experimentally detectable elemental content. We find that in a majority of cases, the metals modeled in the corresponding PDB entries are inconsistent with the metals present in the protein samples before crystallization, or that additional metals are present but not represented in the structural models. Spectroscopic results were integrated with automated crystallographic validation metrics, including real-space Z-difference (RSZD) analysis and systematic rerefinement, to evaluate atomic-number mismatch at metal sites. PIXE and XRFS show strong agreement for dominant elemental signals and provide complementary, scalable approaches for identifying suspect metal assignments. This work does not address physiological or functional metalation but instead highlights a widespread data integrity issue in deposited macromolecular structures, PDB-wide. These results establish an experimentally corroborated link between elemental identity and crystallographic validation metrics, enabling the large-scale detection of chemically inconsistent annotations in structural databases used for computational modeling and machine learning.

Crystallization↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tokamak ITG-KBM transition benchmarking with the mixed variables/pullback transformation electromagnetic gyrokinetic scheme

Electromagnetic gyrokinetic simulation of high temperature plasma is required to predict confinement in magnetic fusion devices and has posed challenges for existing codes. In this paper, we demonstrate successful global gyrokinetic simulation of the ion temperature gradient-driven mode-kinetic ballooning mode transition in a toroidal fusion plasma test case using the mixed variables/pullback transformation (MV/PT) scheme with the particle-in-cell codes XGC and ORB5, and compare to results from a conventional continuum code from the literature. Furthermore, the MV/PT scheme combines explicit time integration with mitigation of the well-known electromagnetic gyrokinetic “cancelation problem.” We calculate eigenmodes in the electrostatic and parallel vector potentials, and find good agreement in growth rate, real frequency, and the normalized plasma pressure of mode transition.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Axions in neutron star mergers

Supernovae and cooling neutron stars have long been used to constrain the properties of axions, such as their mass and interactions with nucleons and other Standard Model particles. We investigate the prospects of using neutron star mergers as a similar location where axions can be probed in the future. We examine the impact axions would have on mergers, considering both the possibility that they free-stream through the dense nuclear matter and the case where they are trapped. We calculate the mean free path of axions in merger conditions, and find that they would free-stream through the merger in all thermodynamic conditions. In contrast to previous calculations, we integrate over the entire phase space while using a relativistic treatment of the nucleons, assuming the matrix element is momentum-independent. In particular, we use a relativistic mean field theory to describe the nucleons, taking into account the precipitous decrease in the effective mass of the nucleons as density increases above nuclear saturation density. We find that within current constraints on the axion-neutron coupling, axions could cool nuclear matter on timescales relevant to neutron star mergers. Our results may be regarded as first steps aimed at understanding how axions affect merger simulations and potentially interface with observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Winning Asset Management Improvement Team: Maintenance Planning and Scheduling in a Highly Regulated Environment

The Y-12 National Complex (Y-12) site has numerous aging facilities that are crucial to the Department of Energy and the national security strategy for the nation. Y-12’s commitment to safety and regulatory compliance is of the highest importance. The commitment to meet the national security mission also creates additional rigor and complexity to the everyday maintenance and planning process. Y-12 is a collection of many facilities, both old and new, nestled between two ridges in Oak Ridge, TN. Y-12 was made with the short-term focus of ending “The Great War” through the creation of the worlds’ first atomic bomb. Almost eighty (80) years have passed since the groundbreaking, with the mission of the site changing from decade to decade. While the mission has changed, the way Y-12 employees continuously meet the challenge has not. The site was created to react and overcome; Y-12 still takes pride in the ability to react and overcome. The difference is the site is no longer ignorant to the need for a better way to manage the aging facilities and infrastructure. Shear willpower and determination was once the way to reach the objectives, but as a wise man once said, “Work smarter, not harder.” The business case for change started within the senior leadership at Y-12. A team of managers sat down and dictated objectives to provide a clear scope for the maintenance planning and scheduling optimization team, to include our Eruditio integrated blended learning coaches. In addition to providing the direction, they also made themselves available for escalation of issues in the event the team ran in to road blocks.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

ARIES Network Requirements Review

The Energy Sciences Network (ESnet) is the high-performance network user facility for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science (SC) and delivers highly reliable data transport capabilities optimized for the requirements of data-intensive science. In essence, ESnet is the circulatory system that enables the DOE science mission by connecting all of its laboratories and facilities in the US and abroad. ESnet is funded and stewarded by the Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program and managed and operated by the Scientific Networking Division at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). ESnet is widely regarded as a global leader in the research and education networking community. On May 1, 2021, ESnet and the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), organized an ESnet requirements review of the ARIES (Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems) platform. Preparation for this event included identification of key stakeholders to the process: program and facility management, research groups, technology providers, and a number of external observers. These individuals were asked to prepare formal case study documents in order to build a complete understanding of the current, near-term, and long-term status, expectations, and processes that will support the science going forward.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Potential of Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged With Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps

In this project, we developed a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model that can be used to evaluate the viability of a proposed Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) design. This MATLAB-based model integrates distinct subsystem models for the reservoir, wells, power cycle, and solar field to capture their distinct characteristics. It applies this approach in simulating GeoTES storage and dispatch operations for durations ranging from hourly to seasonal. Using cases studies based on GeoTES designs provided by industry partners - Premier Resource Management (PRM) and EarthBridge Energy - we validated the TEA model estimations of system performance and costs (such as thermal and electrical power/energy inflow and outflow, capital costs, and levelized costs of energy and storage) for both concentrating solar thermal (CST) and Carnot Battery (CB) pairings with GeoTES (CST-GeoTES and CB-GeoTES). For the CST-GeoTES case, the model was validated against the proposed system designed by PRM. It showed good agreement with PRM's estimations when well and pump costs derived from PRM's estimations were used. When GETEM-based costs were used, there was a slight overprediction due to GETEM's project/site agnostic assumption of these costs. From a sensitivity analysis perspective, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the CST-GeoTES case was most sensitive to well flow rate and the charging temperature. An optimal design scenario resulted in an LCOE of 0.11 $\$$/kWhe. CST-GeoTES can also provide a source of heat to meet seasonal demands. With 12-hour and 24-hour levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 0.018 $\$$/kWhth and 0.022 $\$$/kWhth, respectively, CST-GeoTES could be competitive in the California market with an average industrial price of natural gas in California between 0.041-0.047 $\$$/kWhth. The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for CST-GeoTES depends on the energy storage duration. Although the LCOS is relatively higher for shorter durations (e.g., ~0.50 $\$$/kWhe for 1 hour of storage), it is an order of magnitude lower (0.06 $\$$/kWhe) for longer storage durations and competitive with lithium-ion batteries (beyond 12 hours of storage) and molten-salt thermal energy storage (beyond 32 hours). Energy. Three options were explored and applied to the EarthBridge case study: (1) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with both hot and cold storage; (2) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with only hot storage; (3) A Carnot Battery using a commercially available heat pump with carbon dioxide (CO2) working fluid and hot storage only. The CB-GeoTES with cold storage only had a slight (round-trip) efficiency advantage over the system without (43.4% vs. 42.8%). This is because the cold storage is limited by the freezing point of water, so the cold storage is not much colder than the environment. The system using commercially available technologies was the least efficient - partly because different cycles were used in the heat pump (CO2) and heat engine (binary cycle) which leads to some inefficiencies. Using the commercially available design, the levelized cost of energy (LCOS) from the model (0.10 $\$$/kWhe) was higher than that estimated by EarthBridge (0.068 $\$$/kWhe). This is because of the low round-trip (38.7%) efficiency of the commercially available design. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the model is most sensitive to electricity price. Including electricity price in the TEA for CB-GeoTES leads to an increase in LCOS from the base value to 0.25 $\$$/kWhe. To determine storage sites suitable for GeoTES, we gathered and analyzed geological, petrophysical, and geophysical data of oil and gas reservoir and aquifers in California and Texas. We down-selected possible sites based on cut-off values for site characteristics (e.g., reservoir temperature, formation thickness, permeability, porosity, depth, and brine salinity) and preliminary costs. Using this approach, the Carrizo-Wilcox, Yegua-Jackson, and Dockum brackish aquifers in Texas were identified as having the highest suitability. Similarly, in the central California region, the White Wolf, Belridge South Tulare, and Belridge South Reef Ridge were the most suitable. Going further, we assessed the storage potential in the selected sites. To do this we developed distributions of reservoir characteristic data and applied a Monte Carlo-based analysis to account for intrinsic uncertainty in the acquired data. The analysis revealed that the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer had the highest storage potential with a mean capacity of 554 TWhth (i.e., 63 TWhe). The estimated capacity serves as an upper limit of storage potential given that not all fields in the basin will be developed. We participated in multiple outreach activities including conference presentations, panel session discussions, and the facilitation of a GeoTES workshop at the NREL Golden campus.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Efficient derivative computation for unsteady fatigue-constrained nonlinear aero-structural wind turbine blade optimization

Gradient-based optimization offers significant efficiency advantages for wind turbine blade design, but its application has often been limited by the cost and accuracy of finite-difference derivative calculations, especially when fatigue constraints are considered. In this work, we systematically compare and evaluate four differentiation techniques, namely algorithmic differentiation, implicit differentiation, sparsity exploitation, and parallelization, to determine their effectiveness in computing accurate gradients through time-domain aero-structural simulations. By integrating these techniques with unsteady nonlinear aerodynamic and structural models, we develop software designed for accurate gradient computation. We show that combining these techniques addresses memory and runtime challenges associated with long simulations required by design load cases. Specifically, the most effective combination reduces derivative computation wall time by over an order of magnitude compared to finite differencing while maintaining superior accuracy. We demonstrate this approach in a proof-of-concept aero-structural optimization of a wind turbine blade that improves the cost of energy by 12.78 %. This comparative study establishes a viable approach for fatigue-aware blade design that balances computational efficiency with modeling accuracy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity of fatigue reliability in wind turbines: effects of design turbulence and the Wöhler exponent

Fatigue assessment of wind turbines involves three main sources of uncertainty: material resistance, load, and the damage accumulation model. Many studies focus on increasing the accuracy of fatigue load assessment to improve the fatigue reliability. Probabilistic modeling of the wind's turbulence standard deviation is an example of an approach used for this purpose. Editions 3 and 4 of the IEC standard for the design of wind energy generation systems (IEC 61400-1) suggest different probability distributions as alternatives for the representative turbulence in the normal turbulence model (NTM) of edition 1. There are debates on whether the suggested distributions provide conservative reliability levels, as the established design safety factors are calibrated based on the representative turbulence approach. The current study addresses the debate by comparing annual reliability based on different scenarios of NTM using a probabilistic approach. More importantly, it elaborates on the relative importance of load assessment accuracy in defining the fatigue reliability. Using the DTU 10 MW reference wind turbine and the first-order reliability method (FORM), we study the changes in the annual reliability level and its sensitivity to the three main random inputs. We perform the study considering the blade root flapwise and the tower base fore–aft moments, assuming different fatigue exponents in each load channel. The results show that integration over distributions of turbulence in each mean wind speed results in less conservative annual reliability levels than representative turbulence. The difference in the reliability levels varies according to turbulence distribution and the fatigue exponent. In the case of the tower base, the difference in the annual reliability index after 20 years can be up to 50 %. However, the model and material uncertainty have much higher effects on the reliability levels compared to load uncertainty. Knowledge about such differences in the reliability levels due to the choice of turbulence distribution is especially important, as it impacts the extent of lifetime extension through reliability reassessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

Aubourg, Eric [APC, Paris] (ORCID:000000025592023X↗