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DOE OSTI2014

A fully Bayesian method for jointly fitting instrumental calibration and X-ray spectral models

Owing to a lack of robust principled methods, systematic instrumental uncertainties have generally been ignored in astrophysical data analysis despite wide recognition of the importance of including them. Ignoring calibration uncertainty can cause bias in the estimation of source model parameters and can lead to underestimation of the variance of these estimates. We previously introduced a pragmatic Bayesian method to address this problem. The method is 'pragmatic' in that it introduced an ad hoc technique that simplified computation by neglecting the potential information in the data for narrowing the uncertainty for the calibration product. Following that work, we use a principal component analysis to efficiently represent the uncertainty of the effective area of an X-ray (or γ-ray) telescope. Here, however, we leverage this representation to enable a principled, fully Bayesian method that coherently accounts for the calibration uncertainty in high-energy spectral analysis. In this setting, the method is compared with standard analysis techniques and the pragmatic Bayesian method. The advantage of the fully Bayesian method is that it allows the data to provide information not only for estimation of the source parameters but also for the calibration product—here the effective area, conditional on the adopted spectral model. In this way, it can yield more accurate and efficient estimates of the source parameters along with valid estimates of their uncertainty. Provided that the source spectrum can be accurately described by a parameterized model, this method allows rigorous inference about the effective area by quantifying which possible curves are most consistent with the data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

BP-Quant

Here, we present the implementation of a Bayesian model (BP-Quant) that uses statistically derived peptides signatures to identify peptides that are outside the dominant pattern, or the existence of multiple over-expressed patterns to improve relative protein abundance estimates. It is a research-driven approach that utilizes the objectives of the experiment, defined in the context of a standard statistical hypothesis, to identify a set of peptides exhibiting similar statistical behavior relating to a protein. This approach infers that changes in relative protein abundance can be used as a surrogate for changes in function, without necessarily taking into account the effect of differential post-translational modifications, processing, or splicing in altering protein function. BP-Quant is available as MatLab ® and R packages here.

Bramer, Lisa↗

DOE OSTI2015

Forensic analysis of the microbiome of phones and shoes

Background: Microbial interaction between human-associated objects and the environments we inhabit may have forensic implications, and the extent to which microbes are shared between individuals inhabiting the same space may be relevant to human health and disease transmission. In this study, two participants sampled the front and back of their cell phones, four different locations on the soles of their shoes, and the floor beneath them every waking hour over a 2-day period. A further 89 participants took individual samples of their shoes and phones at three different scientific conferences. Results: Samples taken from different surface types maintained significantly different microbial community structures. The impact of the floor microbial community on that of the shoe environments was strong and immediate, as evidenced by Procrustes analysis of shoe replicates and significant correlation between shoe and floor samples taken at the same time point. Supervised learning was highly effective at determining which participant had taken a given shoe or phone sample, and a Bayesian method was able to determine which participant had taken each shoe sample based entirely on its similarity to the floor samples. Both shoe and phone samples taken by conference participants clustered into distinct groups based on location, though much more so when an unweighted distance metric was used, suggesting sharing of low-abundance microbial taxa between individuals inhabiting the same space. In conclusion, correlations between microbial community sources and sinks allow for inference of the interactions between humans and their environment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2002

Orbit Determination Support for the Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP)

The Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) is a Medium Class Explorers (MIDEX) mission produced in partnership between Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and Princeton University. The main science objective of the MAP mission is to produce an accurate full-sky map of the cosmic microwave background temperature fluctuations anisotropy. MAP was launched from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Complex 17 aboard a Delta II 7425-10 expendable launch vehicle at exactly 19:46:46.183 UTC on June 30, 2001. The spacecraft received a nominal direct insertion by the Delta into a 185 km circular orbit. MAP was then maneuvered into a sequence of phasing loops designed to set up a lunar swingby (gravity-assisted acceleration) of the spacecraft onto a transfer trajectory to a Lissajous orbit about the Earth-Sun L2 point. The mission duration is approximately 27 months with 3 to 4 months of transfer time to the final mission orbit about L2. The MAP transfer orbit consisted of 3.5 phasing loops: the first loop has a 7-day period, the second and third loops have a 9-day period, and the last half loop has a 4-day period as illustrated in Figure 1, which also indicates the placement of maneuvers. A Pfinal correction maneuver was performed 18 hours after the last perigee to more closely achieve the targeted lissajous orbit. The lunar encounter or swingby took place approximately 30 days after launch. After the lunar encounter, the spacecraft will cruise for approximately 120 days before it arrives at L2. A Mid-Course Correction (MCC) maneuver was executed seven days after the swingby to further refine the trajectory. Once the MAP satellite is injected into the L2 Lissajous orbit, it will perform occasional stationkeeping maneuvers to maintain the Lissajous orbit for a minimum of two years (and a goal of four years). Because of its complex orbital characteristics, the mission provided a unique challenge to orbit determination (OD) support in many orbital regimes. Extensive trajectory error covariance analysis was performed to predict ephemeris accuracy for the OD process using a Bayesian least-squares technique. The orbit determination error analysis is essential for maneuver planning and maneuver recovery study. Several tracking scenarios were investigated for each phase of the mission. This paper provides a summary of the premission trajectory covariance error analysis, as well as actual real-time OD results. The use and impact of the various tracking stations, systems, and measurements will be discussed. Details of the operational OD support and the inferred OD accuracy will be presented, and the results will be compared to the premission covariance analysis, In addition, there will be a discussion of the challenges presented to OD support including delta-Vs at apogee as well as perigee, and effects due to spacecraft attitude mode, in light of their implications to the OD accuracy and covariance analysis.

Truong, Son H.↗

DOE OSTI2017

A tale of two modes: neutrino free-streaming in the early universe

We present updated constraints on the free-streaming nature of cosmological neutrinos from cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization power spectra, baryonic acoustic oscillation data, and distance ladder measurements of the Hubble constant. Specifically, we consider a Fermi-like four-fermion interaction between massless neutrinos, characterized by an effective coupling constant G {sub eff}, and resulting in a neutrino opacity τ-dot {sub ν∝} G {sub eff}{sup 2} T {sub ν}{sup 5}. Using a conservative flat prior on the parameter log{sub 10}( G {sub eff} MeV{sup 2}), we find a bimodal posterior distribution with two clearly separated regions of high probability. The first of these modes is consistent with the standard ΛCDM cosmology and corresponds to neutrinos decoupling at redshift z {sub ν,dec} > 1.3×10{sup 5}, that is before the Fourier modes probed by the CMB damping tail enter the causal horizon. The other mode of the posterior, dubbed the 'interacting neutrino mode', corresponds to neutrino decoupling occurring within a narrow redshift window centered around z {sub ν,dec}∼8300. This mode is characterized by a high value of the effective neutrino coupling constant, log{sub 10}( G {sub eff} MeV{sup 2}) = −1.72 ± 0.10 (68% C.L.), together with a lower value of the scalar spectral index and amplitude of fluctuations, and a higher value of the Hubble parameter. Using both a maximum likelihood analysis and the ratio of the two mode's Bayesian evidence, we find the interacting neutrino mode to be statistically disfavored compared to the standard ΛCDM cosmology, and determine this result to be largely driven by the low- l CMB temperature data. Interestingly, the addition of CMB polarization and direct Hubble constant measurements significantly raises the statistical significance of this secondary mode, indicating that new physics in the neutrino sector could help explain the difference between local measurements of H {sub 0}, and those inferred from CMB data. A robust consequence of our results is that neutrinos must be free streaming long before the epoch of matter-radiation equality in order to fit current cosmological data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Galaxies in X-ray selected clusters and groups in Dark Energy Survey data – II. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of the red-sequence galaxy luminosity function

Using ~100 X-ray selected clusters in the Dark Energy Survey Science Verification data, in this work we constrain the luminosity function (LF) of cluster red-sequence galaxies as a function of redshift. This is the first homogeneous optical/X-ray sample large enough to constrain the evolution of the LF simultaneously in redshift (0.1 < z < 1.05) and cluster mass ($13.5 \le \rm {log_{10}}(M_{200crit}) \sim \lt 15.0$). We pay particular attention to completeness issues and the detection limit of the galaxy sample. We then apply a hierarchical Bayesian model to fit the cluster galaxy LFs via a Schechter function, including its characteristic break (m*) to a faint end power-law slope (α). Our approach allows us to avoid known issues in similar analyses based on stacking or binning the clusters. We find weak and statistically insignificant (~1.9σ) evolution in the faint end slope α versus redshift. We also find no dependence in α or m* with the X-ray inferred cluster masses. Yet, the amplitude of the LF as a function of cluster mass is constrained to ${\sim } 20{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ precision. As a by-product of our algorithm, we utilize the correlation between the LF and cluster mass to provide an improved estimate of the individual cluster masses as well as the scatter in true mass given the X-ray inferred masses. This technique can be applied to a larger sample of X-ray or optically selected clusters from the Dark Energy Survey, greatly improving the sensitivity of the analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2014

Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

Luxhoj, J. T.↗

DOE OSTI2014

The luminosity function at z ∼ 8 from 97 Y-band dropouts: Inferences about reionization

We present the largest search to date for Y-band dropout galaxies (z ∼ 8 Lyman break galaxies, LBGs) based on 350 arcmin{sup 2} of Hubble Space Telescope observations in the V, Y, J, and H bands from the Brightest of Reionizing Galaxies (BoRG) survey. In addition to previously published data, the BoRG13 data set presented here includes approximately 50 arcmin{sup 2} of new data and deeper observations of two previous BoRG pointings, from which we present 9 new z ∼ 8 LBG candidates, bringing the total number of BoRG Y-band dropouts to 38 with 25.5 ≤ m{sub J} ≤ 27.6 (AB system). We introduce a new Bayesian formalism for estimating the galaxy luminosity function, which does not require binning (and thus smearing) of the data and includes a likelihood based on the formally correct binomial distribution as opposed to the often-used approximate Poisson distribution. We demonstrate the utility of the new method on a sample of 97 Y-band dropouts that combines the bright BoRG galaxies with the fainter sources published in Bouwens et al. from the Hubble Ultra Deep Field and Early Release Science programs. We show that the z ∼ 8 luminosity function is well described by a Schechter function over its full dynamic range with a characteristic magnitude M{sup ⋆}=−20.15{sub −0.38}{sup +0.29}, a faint-end slope of α=−1.87{sub −0.26}{sup +0.26}, and a number density of log{sub 10} ϕ{sup ⋆}[Mpc{sup −3}]=−3.24{sub −0.24}{sup +0.25}. Integrated down to M = –17.7, this luminosity function yields a luminosity density log{sub 10} ϵ[erg s{sup −1} Hz{sup −1} Mpc{sup −3}]=25.52{sub −0.05}{sup +0.05}. Our luminosity function analysis is consistent with previously published determinations within 1σ. The error analysis suggests that uncertainties on the faint-end slope are still too large to draw a firm conclusion about its evolution with redshift. We use our statistical framework to discuss the implication of our study for the physics of reionization. By assuming theoretically motivated priors on the clumping factor and the photon escape fraction we show that the UV luminosity density from galaxy samples down to M = –17.7 can ionize only 10%-50% of the neutral hydrogen at z ∼ 8. Full reionization would require extending the luminosity function down to M = –15. The data are consistent with a substantial fraction of neutral hydrogen at z > 7, in agreement with recent suggestions based on deep spectroscopy of z ∼ 8 LBGs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Probabilistic inference of basic stellar parameters: application to flickering stars

The relations between observable stellar parameters are usually assumed to be deterministic. That is, given an infinitely precise measurement of independent variable, “x”, and some model, the value of dependent variable, “y” can be known exactly. In practice this assumption is rarely valid and intrinsic stochasticity means that two stars with exactly the same “x” will have slightly different “y”s. The relation between short-timescale brightness fluctuations (flicker) of stars and both surface gravity and stellar density are two such stochastic relations that have until now been treated as deterministic ones. We recalibrate these relations in a probabilistic framework, using hierarchical Bayesian modeling to constrain the instrinsic scatter in the relations. We find evidence for additional scatter in the relationship, that cannot be accounted for by the observational uncertainties alone. The scatter in surface gravity and stellar density does not depend on flicker, suggesting that using flicker as a proxy for logg and ρ {sub ⋆} is equally valid for dwarf and giant stars, despite the fact that the observational uncertainties tend to be larger for dwarfs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Dark matter properties implied by gamma ray interstellar emission models

We infer dark matter properties from gamma ray residuals extracted using eight different interstellar emission scenarios proposed by the Fermi-LAT Collaboration to explain the Galactic Center gamma ray excess. Adopting the most plausible simplified ansatz, we assume that the dark matter particle is a Majorana fermion interacting with standard fermions via a scalar mediator. To trivially respect flavor constraints, we only couple the mediator to third generation fermions. Using this theoretical hypothesis, and the Fermi residuals, we calculate Bayesian evidences, including Fermi-LAT exclusion limits from 15 dwarf spheroidal galaxies as well. Our evidence ratios single out one of the Fermi scenarios as most compatible with the simplified dark matter model. In this scenario the dark matter (mediator) mass is in the 25-200 (1-1000) GeV range and its annihilation is dominated by bottom quark final state. Our conclusion is that the properties of dark matter extracted from gamma ray data are highly sensitive to the modeling of the interstellar emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Tractable Experiment Design via Mathematical Surrogates

This presentation summarizes the development and implementation of quantitative design criteria motivated by targeted inference objectives for identifying new, potentially expensive computational or physical experiments. The first application is concerned with estimating features of quantities of interest arising from complex computational models, such as quantiles or failure probabilities. A sequential strategy is proposed for iterative refinement of the importance distributions used to efficiently sample the uncertain inputs to the computational model. In the second application, effective use of mathematical surrogates is investigated to help alleviate the analytical and numerical intractability often associated with Bayesian experiment design. This approach allows for the incorporation of prior information into the design process without the need for gross simplification of the design criterion. Illustrative examples of both design problems will be presented as an argument for the relevance of these research problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probing quarkyonic matter in neutron stars with the Bayesian nuclear-physics multimessenger astrophysics framework

The interiors of neutron stars contain matter at the highest densities realized in our Universe. Interestingly, theoretical studies of dense matter, in combination with the existence of two-solar-mass neutron stars, indicate that the speed of sound $c_s$ has to increase to values well above the conformal limit ($c_s^2$ = 1/3) before decreasing again at higher densities. Further, the decrease could be explained by either a strong first-order phase transition or a crossover transition from hadronic to quark matter. The latter scenario leads to a pronounced peak in the speed of sound, reaching values above the conformal limit, naturally explaining the inferred behavior. In this work, we use the nuclear-physics multimessenger astrophysics (NMMA) framework to compare predictions of the quarkyonic matter model with astrophysical observations of neutron stars, with the goal of constraining model parameters. Assuming quarkyonic matter to be realized within neutron stars, we find that there can be a significant amount of quarks inside the cores of neutron stars with masses in the two-solar-mass range, amounting to up to ≈0.13$M$ ⊙ , contributing ≈ 5.9% of the total mass. Furthermore, for the quarkyonic matter model investigated here, the radius of a 1.4$M$ ⊙ neutron star would be $13.44_{–1.54}^{+1.69}(13. 54_{–1.04}^{+1.02})$ km, at 95% credibility, without (with) the inclusion of AT2017gfo.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

How to Obtain the Redshift Distribution from Probabilistic Redshift Estimates

Abstract A reliable estimate of the redshift distribution n ( z ) is crucial for using weak gravitational lensing and large-scale structures of galaxy catalogs to study cosmology. Spectroscopic redshifts for the dim and numerous galaxies of next-generation weak-lensing surveys are expected to be unavailable, making photometric redshift (photo- z ) probability density functions (PDFs) the next best alternative for comprehensively encapsulating the nontrivial systematics affecting photo- z point estimation. The established stacked estimator of n ( z ) avoids reducing photo- z PDFs to point estimates but yields a systematically biased estimate of n ( z ) that worsens with a decreasing signal-to-noise ratio, the very regime where photo- z PDFs are most necessary. We introduce Cosmological Hierarchical Inference with Probabilistic Photometric Redshifts ( CHIPPR ), a statistically rigorous probabilistic graphical model of redshift-dependent photometry that correctly propagates the redshift uncertainty information beyond the best-fit estimator of n ( z ) produced by traditional procedures and is provably the only self-consistent way to recover n ( z ) from photo- z PDFs. We present the chippr prototype code, noting that the mathematically justifiable approach incurs computational cost. The CHIPPR approach is applicable to any one-point statistic of any random variable, provided the prior probability density used to produce the posteriors is explicitly known; if the prior is implicit, as may be the case for popular photo- z techniques, then the resulting posterior PDFs cannot be used for scientific inference. We therefore recommend that the photo- z community focus on developing methodologies that enable the recovery of photo- z likelihoods with support over all redshifts, either directly or via a known prior probability density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2010

Parameter Estimation with Entangled Photons Produced by Parametric Down-Conversion

We explore the advantages offered by twin light beams produced in parametric down-conversion for precision measurement. The symmetry of these bipartite quantum states, even under losses, suggests that monitoring correlations between the divergent beams permits a high-precision inference of any symmetry-breaking effect, e.g., fiber birefringence. We show that the quantity of entanglement is not the key feature for such an instrument. In a lossless setting, scaling of precision at the ultimate "Heisenberg" limit is possible with photon counting alone. Even as photon losses approach 100% the precision is shot-noise limited, and we identify the crossover point between quantum and classical precision as a function of detected flux. The predicted hypersensitivity is demonstrated with a Bayesian simulation.

Cable, Hugo↗

DOE OSTI2015

THE HUNT FOR EXOMOONS WITH KEPLER (HEK). V. A SURVEY OF 41 PLANETARY CANDIDATES FOR EXOMOONS

We present a survey of 41 Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs) for exomoons using Bayesian photodynamics, more than tripling the number of KOIs surveyed with this technique. We find no compelling evidence for exomoons although 13 KOIs yield spurious detections driven by instrumental artifacts, stellar activity, and/or perturbations from unseen bodies. Regarding the latter, we find seven KOIs exhibiting >5 σ evidence of transit timing variations, including the “mega-Earth” Kepler-10c, likely indicating an additional planet in that system. We exploit the moderately large sample of 57 unique KOIs surveyed to date to infer several useful statistics. For example, although there is a diverse range in sensitivities, we find that we are sensitive to Pluto–Charon mass-ratio systems for ≃40% of KOIs studied and Earth–Moon mass-ratios for 1 in 8 cases. In terms of absolute mass, our limits probe down to 1.7 Ganymede masses, with a sensitivity to Earth-mass moons for 1 in 3 cases studied and to the smallest moons capable of sustaining an Earth-like atmosphere (0.3 M{sub ⨁}) for 1 in 4. Despite the lack of positive detections to date, we caution against drawing conclusions yet, since our most interesting objects remain under analysis. Finally, we point out that had we searched for the photometric transit signals of exomoons alone, rather than using photodynamics, we estimate that 1 in 4 KOIs would have erroneously been concluded to harbor exomoons due to residual time correlated noise in the Kepler data, posing a serious problem for alternative methods.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Application of Bayes' theorem for pulse shape discrimination

A Bayesian approach is proposed for pulse shape discrimination of photons and neutrons in liquid organic scinitillators. Instead of drawing a decision boundary, each pulse is assigned a photon or neutron confidence probability. In addition, this allows for photon and neutron classification on an event-by-event basis. The sum of those confidence probabilities is used to estimate the number of photon and neutron instances in the data. An iterative scheme, similar to an expectation-maximization algorithm for Gaussian mixtures, is used to infer the ratio of photons-to-neutrons in each measurement. Therefore, the probability space adapts to data with varying photon-to-neutron ratios. A time-correlated measurement of Am–Be and separate measurements of 137 Cs, 60 Co and 232 Th photon sources were used to construct libraries of neutrons and photons. These libraries were then used to produce synthetic data sets with varying ratios of photons-to-neutrons. Probability weighted method that we implemented was found to maintain neutron acceptance rate of up to 90% up to photon-to-neutron ratio of 2000, and performed 9% better than the decision boundary approach. Furthermore, the iterative approach appropriately changed the probability space with an increasing number of photons which kept the neutron population estimate from unrealistically increasing.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2023

Survival of Juvenile Florida Scrub-Jays is Habitat Specific, Positively Correlated With Month and Negatively Correlated With Male Breeder Death

Juvenile survival in birds is difficult to estimate but this vital rate can be an important consideration for management decisions. We estimated juvenile survival of cooperatively breeding Florida Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens) in a landscape degraded by fire suppression and fragmentation using data from marked (n = 325) and unmarked juveniles (n = 1,306) with an integrated hierarchical Bayesian model. To assess the combined analyses, we also analyzed these datasets separately, with a Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model (marked) and young model (unmarked). Our data consisted of monthly censuses of territorial family groups from Florida Scrub-Jay populations in East Central Florida collected over a 22-yr period. Juvenile survival was estimated from July when young Florida Scrub-Jays begin developing independence to March when they become first year individuals and grouped according to the habitat quality class of their natal territory that were based on shrub height (with intermediate shrub heights being optimal and short and tall shrub heights being suboptimal) and the presence of sandy openings (the preferred open having many sandy openings; closed not having enough). Parameter estimates in the combined analysis were intermediate to the separate analyses. Notable differences among the separate analyses were that suboptimal habitat survival was lower in the unmarked analysis, the unmarked analysis showed a linear effect of time not seen in the marked analysis, and there was an effect of male breeder death in the marked but not unmarked analysis. The combined data analysis provided more inference than did either data set analyzed separately including juveniles in optimal-closed territories unexpectedly had higher survival than those in optimal-open, survival increased through time, and male breeder death had a negative effect on survival. This study suggests that optimal-closed habitat may play an important role in juvenile Florida Scrub-Jay survival perhaps by providing better cover from predators and warrants further investigation for management implications.

Florida Scrub-Jay↗

DOE OSTI2015

On the data-driven inference of modulatory networks in climate science: An application to West African rainfall

Decades of hypothesis-driven and/or first-principles research have been applied towards the discovery and explanation of the mechanisms that drive climate phenomena, such as western African Sahel summer rainfall~variability. Although connections between various climate factors have been theorized, not all of the key relationships are fully understood. We propose a data-driven approach to identify candidate players in this climate system, which can help explain underlying mechanisms and/or even suggest new relationships, to facilitate building a more comprehensive and predictive model of the modulatory relationships influencing a climate phenomenon of interest. We applied coupled heterogeneous association rule mining (CHARM), Lasso multivariate regression, and dynamic Bayesian networks to find relationships within a complex system, and explored means with which to obtain a consensus result from the application of such varied methodologies. Using this fusion of approaches, we identified relationships among climate factors that modulate Sahel rainfall. As a result, these relationships fall into two categories: well-known associations from prior climate knowledge, such as the relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and putative links, such as North Atlantic Oscillation, that invite further research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗