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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,135 records · Page 63
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2007

Short-Term Forecasting of Radiation Belt and Ring Current

A computer program implements a mathematical model of the radiation-belt and ring-current plasmas resulting from interactions between the solar wind and the Earth s magnetic field, for the purpose of predicting fluxes of energetic electrons (10 keV to 5 MeV) and protons (10 keV to 1 MeV), which are hazardous to humans and spacecraft. Given solar-wind and interplanetary-magnetic-field data as inputs, the program solves the convection-diffusion equations of plasma distribution functions in the range of 2 to 10 Earth radii. Phenomena represented in the model include particle drifts resulting from the gradient and curvature of the magnetic field; electric fields associated with the rotation of the Earth, convection, and temporal variation of the magnetic field; and losses along particle-drift paths. The model can readily accommodate new magnetic- and electric-field submodels and new information regarding physical processes that drive the radiation-belt and ring-current plasmas. Despite the complexity of the model, the program can be run in real time on ordinary computers. At present, the program can calculate present electron and proton fluxes; after further development, it should be able to predict the fluxes 24 hours in advance

Fok, Mei-Ching↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Statistical Evaluation of WRF-LES Trace Gas Dispersion Using Project Prairie Grass Measurements

In recent years, new measurement systems have been deployed to monitor and quantify methane emissions from the natural gas sector. Large-eddy simulation (LES) has complemented measurement campaigns by serving as a controlled environment in which to study plume dynamics and sampling strategies. However, with few comparisons with controlled-release experiments, the accuracy of LES for modeling natural gas emissions is poorly characterized. In this paper, we evaluate LES from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model against Project Prairie Grass campaign measurements and surface layer similarity theory. Using WRF-LES, we simulate continuous emissions from 30 near-surface trace gas sources in two stability regimes: strong convection and weak convection. We examine the impact of grid resolutions ranging from 6.25 to 52 m in the horizontal dimension on model results. We evaluate performance in a statistical framework, calculating fractional bias and conducting Welch’s t tests. WRF-LES accurately simulates observed surface concentrations at 100 m and beyond under strong convection; simulated concentrations pass t tests in this region irrespective of grid resolution. However, in weakly convective conditions with strong winds, WRF-LES substantially overpredicts concentrations—the magnitude of fractional bias often exceeds 30%, and all but one t test fails. The good performance of WRF-LES under strong convection correlates with agreement with local free convection theory and a minimal amount of parameterized turbulent kinetic energy. The poor performance under weak convection corresponds to misalignment with Monin–Obukhov similarity theory and a significant amount of parameterized turbulent kinetic energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

A comparison of reconstruction methods for the estimation of coronal mass ejections kinematics based on SECCHI/HI observations

A study of the kinematics and arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth, derived from time-elongation maps (J-maps) constructed from STEREO/heliospheric imager (HI) observations, provides an opportunity to understand the heliospheric evolution of CMEs in general. We implement various reconstruction techniques, based on the use of time-elongation profiles of propagating CMEs viewed from single or multiple vantage points, to estimate the dynamics of three geo-effective CMEs. We use the kinematic properties, derived from analysis of the elongation profiles, as inputs to the Drag Based Model for the distance beyond which the CMEs cannot be tracked unambiguously in the J-maps. The ambient solar wind into which these CMEs, which travel with different speeds, are launched, is different. Therefore, these CMEs will evolve differently throughout their journey from the Sun to 1 AU. We associate the CMEs, identified and tracked in the J-maps, with signatures observed in situ near 1 AU by the WIND spacecraft. By deriving the kinematic properties of each CME, using a variety of existing methods, we assess the relative performance of each method for the purpose of space weather forecasting. We discuss the limitations of each method, and identify the major constraints in predicting the arrival time of CMEs near 1 AU using HI observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Radial evolution of a magnetic cloud: messenger, STEREO, AND Venus Express observations

The Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus missions will provide observations of magnetic clouds closer to the Sun than ever before, and it will be good preparation for these missions to make full use of the most recent in situ data sets from the inner heliosphere—namely, those provided by MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) and Venus Express—for magnetic cloud studies. We present observations of the same magnetic cloud made by MESSENGER at Mercury and later by Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-B (STEREO-B), while the spacecraft were radially aligned in 2011 November. Few such radial observations of magnetic clouds have been previously reported. Estimates of the solar wind speed at MESSENGER are also presented, calculated through the application of a previously established technique. The cloudʼs flux rope has been analyzed using force-free fitting; the rope diameter increased from 0.18 to 0.41 AU (corresponding to an r{sub H}{sup 0.94} dependence on heliocentric distance, r{sub H}), and the axial magnetic field strength dropped from 46.0 to 8.7 nT (an r{sub H}{sup −1.84} dependence) between the spacecraft, clear indications of an expanding structure. The axial magnetic flux was ∼0.50 nT AU{sup 2} at both spacecraft, suggesting that the rope underwent no significant erosion through magnetic reconnection between MESSENGER and STEREO-B. Further, we estimate the change in the cloudʼs angular width by assuming helicity conservation. It has also been found that the rope axis rotated by 30° between the spacecraft to lie close to the solar equatorial plane at STEREO-B. Such a rotation, if it is a common feature of coronal mass ejection propagation, would have important implications for space weather forecasting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1984

Magnetohydrodynamic modelling of interplanetary disturbances between the sun and earth

A time-dependent, nonplanar, two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic computer model is used to simulate a series, separately examined, of solar flare-generated shock waves and their subsequent disturbances in interplanetary space between the sun and the earth's magnetosphere. The 'canonical' or ansatz series of shock waves include initial velocities near the sun over the range 500 to 3500 km/s. The ambient solar wind, through which they propagate, is taken to be a steady state homogeneous plasma (that is, independent of heliolongitude) with a representative set of plasma and magnetic field parameters. Complete sets of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters are presented and discussed. Particular attention is addressed to the MHD model's ability to address fundamental operational questions vis-a-vis the long-range forecasting of geomagnetic disturbances. These questions are: (1) will a disturbance (such as the present canonical series of solar flare shock waves) produce a magnetospheric and ionospheric disturbance, and, if so, (2) when will it start, (3) how severe will it be, and (4) how long will it last? The model's output is used to compute various solar wind indices of current interest as a demonstration of the model's potential for providing 'answers' to these questions.

Dryer, M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Implications of Wind-Assisted Aerial Navigation for Titan Mission Planning and Science Exploration

The recent Titan Saturn System Mission (TSSM) proposal incorporates a montgolfiere (hot air balloon) as part of its architecture. Standard montgolfiere balloons generate lift through heating of the atmospheric gases inside the envelope, and use a vent valve for altitude control. A Titan aerobot (robotic aerial vehicle) would have to use radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs) for electric power, and the excess heat generated can be used to provide thermal lift for a montgolfiere. A hybrid montgolfiere design could have propellers mounted on the gondola to generate horizontal thrust; in spite of the unfavorable aerodynamic drag caused by the shape of the balloon, a limited amount of lateral controllability could be achieved. In planning an aerial mission at Titan, it is extremely important to assess how the moon-wide wind field can be used to extend the navigation capabilities of an aerobot and thereby enhance the scientific return of the mission. In this paper we explore what guidance, navigation and control capabilities can be achieved by a vehicle that uses the Titan wind field. The control planning approach is based on passive wind field riding. The aerobot would use vertical control to select wind layers that would lead it towards a predefined science target, adding horizontal propulsion if available. The work presented in this paper is based on aerodynamic models that characterize balloon performance at Titan, and on TitanWRF (Weather Research and Forecasting), a model that incorporates heat convection, circulation, radiation, Titan haze properties, Saturn's tidal forcing, and other planetary phenomena. Our results show that a simple unpropelled montgolfiere without horizontal actuation will be able to reach a broad array of science targets within the constraints of the wind field. The study also indicates that even a small amount of horizontal thrust allows the balloon to reach any area of interest on Titan, and to do so in a fraction of the time needed by the unpropelled balloon. The results show that using the Titan wind field allows an aerobot to significantly extend its scientific reach, and that a montgolfiere (unpropelled or propelled) is a highly desirable architecture that can very significantly enhance the scientific return of a future Titan mission.

aerobot↗
DOE OSTI2014

High resolution transmission spectroscopy as a diagnostic for Jovian exoplanet atmospheres: constraints from theoretical models

We present high resolution transmission spectra of giant planet atmospheres from a coupled three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric dynamics and transmission spectrum model that includes Doppler shifts which arise from winds and planetary motion. We model Jovian planets covering more than two orders of magnitude in incident flux, corresponding to planets with 0.9-55 day orbital periods around solar-type stars. The results of our 3D dynamical models reveal certain aspects of high resolution transmission spectra that are not present in simple one-dimensional (1D) models. We find that the hottest planets experience strong substellar to anti-stellar (SSAS) winds, resulting in transmission spectra with net blueshifts of up to 3 km s{sup –1}, whereas less irradiated planets show almost no net Doppler shifts. We find only minor differences between transmission spectra for atmospheres with temperature inversions and those without. Compared to 1D models, peak line strengths are significantly reduced for the hottest atmospheres owing to Doppler broadening from a combination of rotation (which is faster for close-in planets under the assumption of tidal locking) and atmospheric winds. Finally, high resolution transmission spectra may be useful in studying the atmospheres of exoplanets with optically thick clouds since line cores for very strong transitions should remain optically thick to very high altitude. High resolution transmission spectra are an excellent observational test for the validity of 3D atmospheric dynamics models, because they provide a direct probe of wind structures and heat circulation. Ground-based exoplanet spectroscopy is currently on the verge of being able to verify some of our modeling predictions, most notably the dependence of SSAS winds on insolation. We caution that interpretation of high resolution transmission spectra based on 1D atmospheric models may be inadequate, as 3D atmospheric motions can produce a noticeable effect on the absorption signatures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2018

Sensitivity of Different Types of Observations to NASA GEOS Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was the 5th most active, featuring 17 named storms, the highest number of major hurricanes since 2005, and by far the costliest season on record. African easterly waves often serve as the seeding circulation for a large portion of hurricanes (i.e. tropical storms with wind over 74mph in the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific). Warm SST, moist air, and low wind shear are the main requirements for tropical cyclones to develop and maintain hurricane strength. In terms of hurricane propagation (so called hurricane tracks), Atlantic hurricanes typically propagate around the periphery of the subtropical ridge called the Bermuda High (Azores High), riding along its strongest winds. If the high is positioned to the east, then hurricanes generally propagate northeastward around the high's western edge into the open Atlantic Ocean without making land fall. If the high is positioned to the west and extends far enough to the south, storms are blocked from curving north and forced to continue west towards Florida, Cuba, and the Gulf of Mexico. If we have accurate atmospheric temperature distribution, which is directly related to atmospheric wave patterns, wind distributions, moisture distribution, and SST distribution in the analyses, we will have better NWP skills in hurricane analyses including hurricane intensity and tracks. Assimilating various observation data are supposed to play these roles in the analyses. To examine impacts of different types of observation data on NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model hurricane analyses and forecasts during the period of 2017 summer, this study performs data denial experiments using GEOS Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS), which is based on the hybrid 4D-EnVar GSI algorithm. Various types of observations such as microwave sounders, infrared sounders, TCvitals, and conventional data are removed in the experiments. In addition, the interaction between the different observation groups as certain instruments are removed from the analysis is investigated in detail using adjoint based forecast sensitivity observation impact (FSOI).

Hurricane↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Impact of Ocean Observations in Seasonal Climate Prediction

The ocean provides the most significant memory for the climate system. Hence, a critical element in climate forecasting with coupled models is the initialization of the ocean with states from an ocean data assimilation system. Remotely-sensed ocean surface fields (e.g., sea surface topography, SST, winds) are now available for extensive periods and have been used to constrain ocean models to provide a record of climate variations. Since the ocean is virtually opaque to electromagnetic radiation, the assimilation of these satellite data is essential to extracting the maximum information content. More recently, the Argo drifters have provided unprecedented sampling of the subsurface temperature and salinity. Although the duration of this observation set has been too short to provide solid statistical evidence of its impact, there are indications that Argo improves the forecast skill of coupled systems. This presentation will address the impact these different observations have had on seasonal climate predictions with the GMAO's coupled model.

Rienecker, Michele↗
NASA NTRS1992

Sampling and Representativeness for a Spaceborne Wind Lidar

The capability of an Earth-orbiting lidar to produce a reliable windfield sampling with an error of 1-3 ms(exp -1) and that is relevant to numerical forecasting and climate studies is discussed. The spatial and temporal resolutions range from 100 km to 1000 km and 3 hr to 1 month respectively. In this respect cloud obstruction is of great concern, as it can prevent the lidar probing whole parts of the atmosphere, for both short and long periods of time. A worldwide analysis of cloudiness from either visual observations made from the ground or else from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) instrument, has shown that the average cloud cover is 60 percent. This analysis is only valid at large scales (time and space) compatible with the currently operating satellites. However, a lidar footprint is only about a hundred meters or less, and it was observed from ground based lidars that, even when the cloudiness is 100 percent, some lidar shots get through. A complete analysis of the probability of probing through clouds by a spaceborne lidar is presently beyond our capacities. Hence, no small scale cloudiness data set is yet available representing all kinds of meteorological situations at all latitudes.

Lieutaud, F.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Tropical cyclone intensity change. A quantitative forecasting scheme

One to two day future tropical cyclone intensity change from both a composite and an individual case point-of-view are discussed. Tropical cyclones occurring in the Gulf of Mexico during the period 1957-1977 form the primary data source. Weather charts of the NW Atlantic were initially examined, but few differences were found between intensifying and non-intensifying cyclones. A rawinsonde composite analysis detected composite differences in the 200 mb height fields, the 850 mb temperature fields, the 200 mb zonal wind and the vertical shears of the zonal wind. The individual cyclones which make up the composite study were then separately examined using this composite case knowledge. Similar parameter differences were found in a majority of individual cases. A cyclone intensity change forecast scheme was tested against independent storm cases. Correct predictions of intensification or non-intensification could be made approximately 75% of the time.

Dropco, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS1995

A mesoscale modeling study of the atmospheric circulation of high southern latitudes

The meteorology of high southern latitudes during winter is simulated using a cloud-free version of The Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model version 4 (MM4) with a 100-km horizontal resolution. Comparisons between idealized simulations of Antarctic with MM4 and with the mesoscale model of Parish and Waight reveal that both models produce similarly realistic velocity fields in the boundary layer. The latter model tends to produce slightly faster drainage winds over East Antarctica. The intensity of the katabatic winds produced by MM4 is sensitive to parameterizations of boundary layer fluxes. Two simulations performed with MM4 using analyses from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for June 1988 as initial and boundary conditions. A simulation of the period from 000 UTC 2 June to 0000 UTC 8 June produces realistic synoptic phenomena including ridge development over East Antarctica, frontogenesis over the Amundsen Sea, and a katabatic surge over the Ross Ice Shelf. The simulated time-averaged fields for June 1988, particularly that of a 500-hPa height, are in good agreement with time-averaged fields analyzed by the ECMWF. The results of the simulations provide detailed features of the Antarctic winter boundary layer along the steeply sloping terrain. Highest boundary layer wind speeds averaged over the month-long simulation are approximately 20 m/s. The lack of latent heating in the simulations apparently results in some bias in the results. In particular, the cloud-free version of MM4 underpredicts the intensity of lows in the sea level pressure field.

Hines, K. M.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Ensemble Kalman Filter for Dynamic State Estimation of Power Grids Stochastically Driven by Time-correlated Mechanical Input Power

State and parameter estimation of power transmission networks is important for monitoring power grid operating conditions and analyzing transient stability. Wind power generation depends on fluctuating input power levels, which are correlated in time and contribute to uncertainty in turbine dynamical models. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a standard state estimation technique, uses a deterministic forecast and does not explicitly model time-correlated noise in parameters such as mechanical input power. However, this uncertainty affects the probability of fault-induced transient instability and increased prediction bias. Here a novel approach is to model input power noise with time-correlated stochastic fluctuations, and integrate them with the network dynamics during the forecast. While the EnKF has been used to calibrate constant parameters in turbine dynamical models, the calibration of a statistical model for a time-correlated parameter has not been investigated. In this study, twin experiments on a standard transmission network test case are used to validate our time-correlated noise model framework for state estimation of unsteady operating conditions and transient stability analysis, and a methodology is proposed for the inference of the mechanical input power time-correlation length parameter using time-series data from PMUs monitoring power dynamics at generator buses.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1998

Stratospheric Assimilation of Chemical Tracer Observations Using a Kalman Filter: Chi-Square Validated Results and Analysis of Variance and Correlation Dynamics - Pt. 2

A Kalman filter system designed for the assimilation of limb-sounding observations of stratospheric chemical tracers, which has four tunable covariance parameters, was developed in Part I (Menard et al. 1998) The assimilation results of CH4 observations from the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Sounder instrument (CLAES) and the Halogen Observation Experiment instrument (HALOE) on board of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite are described in this paper. A robust (chi)(sup 2) criterion, which provides a statistical validation of the forecast and observational error covariances, was used to estimate the tunable variance parameters of the system. In particular, an estimate of the model error variance was obtained. The effect of model error on the forecast error variance became critical after only three days of assimilation of CLAES observations, although it took 14 days of forecast to double the initial error variance. We further found that the model error due to numerical discretization as arising in the standard Kalman filter algorithm, is comparable in size to the physical model error due to wind and transport modeling errors together. Separate assimilations of CLAES and HALOE observations were compared to validate the state estimate away from the observed locations. A wave-breaking event that took place several thousands of kilometers away from the HALOE observation locations was well captured by the Kalman filter due to highly anisotropic forecast error correlations. The forecast error correlation in the assimilation of the CLAES observations was found to have a structure similar to that in pure forecast mode except for smaller length scales. Finally, we have conducted an analysis of the variance and correlation dynamics to determine their relative importance in chemical tracer assimilation problems. Results show that the optimality of a tracer assimilation system depends, for the most part, on having flow-dependent error correlation rather than on evolving the error variance.

Menard, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2014

Precipitation and Air Pollution at Mountain and Plain Stations in Northern China: Insights Gained from Observations and Modeling

We analyzed 40 year data sets of daily average visibility (a proxy for surface aerosol concentration) and hourly precipitation at seven weather stations, including three stations located on the Taihang Mountains, during the summertime in northern China. There was no significant trend in summertime total precipitation at almost all stations. However, light rain decreased, whereas heavy rain increased as visibility decreased over the period studied. The decrease in light rain was seen in both orographic-forced shallow clouds and mesoscale stratiform clouds. The consistent trends in observed changes in visibility, precipitation, and orographic factor appear to be a testimony to the effects of aerosols. The potential impact of large-scale environmental factors, such as precipitable water, convective available potential energy, and vertical wind shear, on precipitation was investigated. No direct links were found. To validate our observational hypothesis about aerosol effects, Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations with spectral-bin microphysics at the cloud-resolving scale were conducted. Model results confirmed the role of aerosol indirect effects in reducing the light rain amount and frequency in the mountainous area for both orographic-forced shallow clouds and mesoscale stratiform clouds and in eliciting a different response in the neighboring plains. The opposite response of light rain to the increase in pollution when there is no terrain included in the model suggests that orography is likely a significant factor contributing to the opposite trends in light rain seen in mountainous and plain areas.

air pollution↗
DOE OSTI2022

Revisiting the Definition of Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones by Clustering the Initial Intensity and Inner‐Core Size

Abstract Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) provides a great challenge in operational forecasting and contributes significantly to the development of major TCs. RI is commonly defined as an increase in the maximum sustained surface wind speed of at least a certain threshold within 24 hr. The most widely used threshold is 30 kt (15.4 m/s), which was determined statistically. Here we propose a new definition for RI by objectively clustering TCs using the intensification rate, initial intensity, and radius of the maximum wind speed (RMW). A group of 770 samples is separated at a threshold of 45 kt (23.2 m/s). The threshold is 40 kt (20.6 m/s) for the western North Atlantic, where TC size measurements are more reliable. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate that the proposed threshold is robust even considering the uncertainty in RMW of as high as 30 km. We show that, when a TC undergoes RI, its maximum wind speed is approximately 60 ± 15 kt (30.9 ± 7.7 m/s) and the RMW is 45 ± 20 km. The new threshold outperforms the conventional threshold of 30 kt/24 hr in describing the bimodal distribution of lifetime maximum intensity and explaining the annual count of Category 5 TCs. This new definition provides a more physically based threshold and describes a more reliable representation of extreme events. Although more comparisons are needed for operational application, it is likely to be desirable for case‐based process studies and could provide a more valuable metric for TC intensification classification and research.

Li, Yi↗
DOE OSTI2014

Failed supernovae explain the compact remnant mass function

One explanation for the absence of higher mass red supergiants (16.5 M {sub ☉} ≲ M ≲ 25 M {sub ☉}) as the progenitors of Type IIP supernovae (SNe) is that they die in failed SNe creating black holes. Simulations show that such failed SNe still eject their hydrogen envelopes in a weak transient, leaving a black hole with the mass of the star's helium core (5-8 M {sub ☉}). Here we show that this naturally explains the typical masses of observed black holes and the gap between neutron star and black hole masses without any fine-tuning of stellar mass loss, binary mass transfer, or the SN mechanism, beyond having it fail in a mass range where many progenitor models have density structures that make the explosions more likely to fail. There is no difficulty including this ∼20% population of failed SNe in any accounting of SN types over the progenitor mass function. And, other than patience, there is no observational barrier to either detecting these black hole formation events or limiting their rates to be well below this prediction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Evaluating decadal predictions of northern hemispheric cyclone frequencies

Mid-latitudinal cyclones are a key factor for understanding regional anomalies in primary meteorological parameters such as temperature or precipitation. Extreme cyclones can produce notable impacts on human society and economy, for example, by causing enormous economic losses through wind damage. Based on 41 annually initialised (1961–2001) hindcast ensembles, this study evaluates the ability of a single-model decadal forecast system (MPI-ESM-LR) to provide skilful probabilistic three-category forecasts (enhanced, normal or decreased) of winter (ONDJFM) extra-tropical cyclone frequency over the Northern Hemisphere with lead times from 1 yr up to a decade. It is shown that these predictions exhibit some significant skill, mainly for lead times of 2–5 yr, especially over the North Atlantic and Pacific. Skill for intense cyclones is generally higher than for all detected systems. A comparison of decadal hindcasts from two different initialisation techniques indicates that initialising from reanalysis fields yields slightly better results for the first forecast winter (month 10–15), while initialisation based on an assimilation experiment provides better skill for lead times between 2 and 5 yr. The reasons and mechanisms behind this predictive skill are subject to future work. Preliminary analyses suggest a strong relationship of the model's skill over the North Atlantic with the ability to predict upper ocean temperatures modulating lower troposphere baroclinicity for the respective area and time scales.

MiKlip↗