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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

Downscaled CMIP5 projections of physical fire risk understate historical trends

Reliable projections of wildfire risk are important for multi-sector impacts analysis. Statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Earth system model ensemble products are routinely used to analyze regional physical wildfire risk, but evaluations of historical observed trends and variability are lacking. Here, we evaluate physical fire risk over the western United States using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) by comparing model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), statistically downscaled via the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) approach, against the observational target dataset gridMET, a gridded high-resolution surface meteorological product. We analyze multidecadal trends and interannual variability in seasonal average FWI for the historical period and future projections under two emissions scenarios, and we compare MACA-CMIP5 ensemble results with a simple time series model that generates historical and future projections of seasonal FWI based on bootstrapping observed historical trends and variability. Our findings indicate that MACA-CMIP5 accurately captures the magnitude and spatial patterns of seasonally averaged FWI but tends to underestimate historical decadal trends. We show that future increases in fire risk may be underestimated relative to the simple time series model that projects historical variability into the future. We also highlight that model biases in relative humidity contribute significantly to model-data differences. Our results underscore the importance of historical hindcasting exercises for informing broader multi-sector applications.

FWI↗

State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analysis Project: Sensitivity Analysis Using Dakota

The State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) project has focused on best estimate analyses and uncertainty analysis for postulated accidents at specific nuclear power plants. The consequences of these accidents are estimated using the simulation tools MELCOR and MACCS. To understand which uncertain input variables are important to determining these consequences, analysts have performed sensitivity analyses. The tool used to perform these sensitivity analyses in previous SOARCA work, CompModSA, is no longer supported. Therefore, the current work focuses on migrating these analyses to another tool and evaluating its performance. Dakota, which is a tool developed at Sandia National Laboratories, is used in this work. Sensitivity results are created for three analyses from the SOARCA Surry UA. Though CompModSA and Dakota vary slightly in their algorithms and implementation, their sensitivity results generally agree, which gives confidence in the Dakota approach and increases confidence in the original analyses. It is likely that this methodology is extendable to the rest of SOARCA analyses.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Novel Geometric Operations for Linear Programming

This report summarizes the work performed under the project "Linear Programming in Strongly Polynomial Time." Linear programming (LP) is a classic combinatorial optimization problem heavily used directly and as an enabling subroutine in integer programming (IP). Specifically IP is the same as LP except that some solution variables must take integer values (e.g. to represent yes/no decisions). Together LP and IP have many applications in resource allocation including general logistics, and infrastructure design and vulnerability analysis. The project was motivated by the PI's recent success developing methods to efficiently sample Voronoi vertices (essentially finding nearest neighbors in high-dimensional point sets) in arbitrary dimension. His method seems applicable to exploring the high-dimensional convex feasible space of an LP problem. Although the project did not provably find a strongly-polynomial algorithm, it explored multiple algorithm classes. The new medial simplex algorithms may still lead to solvers with improved provable complexity. We describe medial simplex algorithms and some relevant structural/complexity results. We also designed a novel parallel LP algorithm based on our geometric insights and implemented it in the Spoke-LP code. A major part of the computational step is many independent vector dot products. Our parallel algorithm distributes the problem constraints across processors. Current commercial and high-quality free LP solvers require all problem details to fit onto a single processor or multicore. Our new algorithm might enable the solution of problems too large for any current LP solvers. We describe our new algorithm, give preliminary proof-of-concept experiments, and describe a new generator for arbitrarily large LP instances.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States (2021 Edition) [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s annual Tracking the Sun report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. The latest edition of the report focuses on systems installed through year-end 2020, and is based on data from roughly 2.2 million systems, covering 79% of all distributed PV systems installed nationally through 2020. The report describes trends related to project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and non-residential customer segmentation ownership. Median installed-price trends, including both long-term and more recent temporal trends at the national and state levels, with comparisons to other recent PV cost and pricing benchmarks as well as to prices reported for other countries. Variability in pricing across individual projects based on system size, state, installer, module efficiency, inverter technology, and non-residential customer type. The report also includes an econometric analysis to estimate the effects of individual drivers on installed prices for host-owned residential systems installed in 2020.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Study of Storage Requirements and Costs for Shaping Renewables and Nuclear Energy (FY23 Summary Report)

To decarbonize electricity generation primarily by using wind and solar resources, it is likely that additional low (or zero) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) alternatives will be required for ensuring a reliable electricity supply. This study extends the work and modeling framework that we consolidated in FY 2022, by assessing the zero-CO 2 pathways of a Texas power system in which the availability of variable renewable energy (VRE), nuclear energy, and energy storage types (i.e., battery and thermal energy storage [TES]) are considered the sole resources available for expansion. Using the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) frameworks, this study investigates the market of two nuclear energy technologies (i.e., large light-water reactors [LWRs] and LWR-type small modular reactors [SMRs]) under two plausible storage coupling scenarios (i.e., electric coupling and direct thermal coupling). We also explore optimal environments for nuclear energy deployment, and identify key performance characteristics that make nuclear energy economically viable in areas with significant intermittent energy sources. Our analysis encompasses 24 cases. We model the least-cost grid systems, highlight the potential for a coupled LWR-TES approach, and utilize SMRs to achieve deep decarbonization in an affordable, technically feasible manner. We also examine seasonal variations in balancing electricity supply and demand, and account for varying performance, costs, and grid constraints. Overall, the findings of our modeling afford valuable insights for supporting future technology investment decisions in the energy sector.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

BRAVE_EBC-TMT.1.0

Exhaled breath condensate (EBC) represents a low-cost and non-invasive means of examining respiratory health. EBC has been used to discover and validate exhaled volatile and non-volatile biomarkers of disease related to the respiratory system distress such as asthma, COPD, lung cancer, and secondary infections. One newly emerging utilization of EBC, is proteomics analysis, which can provide an unbiased snapshot into ongoing biological processes in the airway. Fully characterizing the biological landscape of EBC collections is challenging though, due to sample variability, and low detection sensitivity. EBC is primarily composed of condensed water, causing technical challenges with detecting key macromolecules from the dilute sample matrix; therefore, high sensitivity techniques are required to unlock the full capability of EBC as a method for non-invasive biomarker detection. To overcome some of these technical challenges for proteomic analyses, we applied our recently developed microscale proteomic techniques and developed a novel TMT based approach which enabled reliable, relative quantification with significantly improved detection of low abundance peptides/proteins across multiple healthy volunteer EBC samples. Our EBC collection design includes longitudinal EBC collections from five individual healthy volunteers on three separate days of the week with triplicate, back-to-back donations each day. Here, we report a total of 235 quantifiable proteins corresponding to 1,877 non-redundant peptides for evaluating sample collection reproducibility and establishing a healthy (human host) baseline EBC biomarker proteome studies. This work will pave the way for further investigations of EBC protein expression profiles and showcase the value of using non-invasive collection method techniques for clinically relevant biomarker discovery. This research was supported by the LDRD Biomedical Resilience And Readiness in AdVerse Operating Environments (BRAVE) Project (73748), and was conducted at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in Richland, WA. PNNL is a multiprogram national laboratory operated by Battelle for the Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract DE-AC05-76RLO 1830.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Advanced biorefinery feedstock from non-recyclable municipal solid waste by mechanical preprocessing

Because of accelerated urbanization and the development of a global economy, a large quantity of municipal solid waste (MSW) has been collected and disposed of by the municipalities. Due to this drastic increase in the disposal of MSW, the need for its management is a must to preserve the environment. Currently, approximately 50% of the total MSW generated in the United States has been utilized through various recycling, combustion, and composting technologies, which means the remaining 50% is sent to landfill; this is often known as non-recyclable MSW (nMSW). As this nMSW is physically and chemically heterogenous and contains very high amounts of inorganic material, processing is required prior to using it as a biorefinery feedstock. Thus, this study focused on how mechanical preprocessing advanced the physical and chemical properties of nMSW. The physical and chemical properties were investigated in terms of particle size distribution, bulk density, ultimate and proximate analysis, and the higher heating value (HHV). The combustion properties were examined in terms of ignition temperature, peak heat release rate, and combustion efficiency. Results showed that the variability of physical and chemical properties of nMSW can be reduced by mechanical preprocessing. For example, the variability of the bulk density of the as-received nMSW was approximately 17.3% while it reduced to 5.8% when the sample size was reduced to 2 mm. Similarly, the variability of ash and HHV reduced from 49.2% to 11.0% and 13.4%–4.2%, respectively. Combustion thermograms showed that the size reduction positively improved the combustion properties. For example, 2 mm of spec sample started to ignite approximately 4 times earlier and took 6.5 folds less time to reach the peak heating rate compared to as-received nMSW. Overall, the mechanical preprocessing reduced the variability of physical and chemical properties in addition to the improvement of combustion behavior of the nMSW which is one step forward toward the biorefinery feedstock.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Multifrequency Models of Black Hole Photon Rings from Low-luminosity Accretion Disks

Images of black holes encode both astrophysical and gravitational properties. Detecting highly lensed features in images can differentiate between these two effects. We present an accretion disk emission model coupled to the Adaptive Analytical Ray Tracing (AART) code that allows a fast parameter space exploration of black hole photon ring images produced from synchrotron emission from 10 to 670 GHz. As an application, we systematically study several disk models and compute their total flux density, average radii, and optical depth. The model parameters are chosen around fiducial values calibrated to general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations and observations of M87*. For the parameter space studied, we characterize the transition between optically thin and thick regimes and the frequency at which the first photon ring is observable. Our results highlight the need for careful definitions of photon ring radius in the image domain, as in certain models the highly lensed photon ring is dimmer than the direct emission at certain angles. We find that at low frequencies the ring radii are set by the electron temperature, while at higher frequencies the magnetic field strength plays a more significant role, demonstrating how multifrequency analysis can also be used to infer plasma parameters. Lastly, we show how our implementation can qualitatively reproduce multifrequency black hole images from GRMHD simulations when adding time variability to our disk model through Gaussian random fields. This approach provides a new method for simulating observations from the Event Horizon Telescope and the proposed Black Hole Explorer space mission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Machine-Learned Manifold-Based Models for Large Eddy Simulation of Turbulent Combustion

Reduced-order manifold combustion models are commonly used to lower the cost of reacting Large Eddy Simulations (LES) and may be derived either from physical principles as in flamelet models or from data-driven methods like Principal Component Analysis (PCA). In either case, neural networks are increasingly used as part of these models to provide a nonlinear mapping between a small set of pre-defined variables that parameterize the manifold and outputs of interest, such as reaction rates. In this work, we propose a new manifold-based modeling approach that combines the definition of the manifold-parameterizing variables (linear combinations of species), the nonlinear mapping to the outputs, and closure of filtered quantities for LES into the structure of a single neural network. This allows the process used to train the neural network to simultaneously optimize both the functional form of the model and the identities of the inputs to the model. The new approach can flexibly incorporate thermochemical data from any combustion system; if trained on data from 1D flames it can be interpreted as an optimized flamelet model, but it can also be used to learn models from data from more complex configurations. This work presents a priori evaluations of the new approach in both contexts. Evaluation using data from 1D premixed flames demonstrates the physical interpretability of the manifold variables generated by the new approach. Evaluation using data from direct numerical simulations of turbulent flames shows improved predictions relative to either flamelet or PCA-based models in a more complex configuration.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

FY25 status report on the addition of candidate materials in Class B Code Case

This report provides the time-dependent allowable stress calculation strategy leveraging the limited creep rupture tests data generated to support the allowable stress for 100,000 hours in American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC), Section II, Part D. A variable confidence index procedure to extrapolate material properties to support 500,000 hours design life is discussed. Time-dependent allowable stresses for Class B component design and analysis are presented for Grade 1 and Grade 2 of Alloy 625. The presented data extrapolation and allowable stress calculation method will support new material addition using limited creep rupture data in the new ASME Boiler and BPVC, Section III, Division 5, Class B rules.

Part D↗

Building the Business Case with JUSTIFI: Quantifying Multiple Benefits in the Automotive Industry

The Michigan State University Industrial Training and Assessment Center (MSU ITAC) conducted a pilot study at an automotive parts manufacturer in Michigan. The study identified energy-productivity enhancements through the application of the JUSTIFI software. Key recommendations included replacing six inefficient rooftop units (RTUs) with a new air rotational unit. By quantifying operational savings for this project, the expected payback period went from 6.6 years to 1.4 years. Additionally, the installation of variable frequency drives (VFDs) on condenser tower motors was suggested. By including all operational benefits, the payback period was reduced from 8.2 years to 1.3 years. This comprehensive analysis aims to bolster the manufacturer's goals of reducing energy while enhancing overall operational efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Spectral Variability of VHS J1256–1257b from 1 to 5 μm

Multiwavelength time-resolved observations of rotationally modulated variability from brown dwarfs and giant exoplanets are the most effective method for constraining their heterogeneous atmospheric structures. In a companion paper, we reported the discovery of strong near-infrared variability in HST/WFC3/G141 light curves of the very red L-dwarf companion VHS J1256–1257b. In this paper, we present a follow-up 36 hr Spitzer/IRAC Channel 2 light curve together with an in-depth analysis of the Hubble space telescope (HST) and the Spitzer data. The combined data set provides time-resolved light curves of VHS1256b sampling 1.1 to 4.5 μm. The Spitzer light curve is best fit with a single sine wave with a period of 22.04 ± 0.05 hr and a peak-to-peak amplitude of 5.76 ± 0.04%. Combining the period with a previously measured projected rotational velocity (v sin i), we find that VHS1256b is most consistent with equatorial viewing geometry. The HST/G141+Spitzer spectral energy distribution favors a model with a T{sub eff} of 1000 K and low surface gravity with disequilibrium chemistry. The spectral variability of VHS1256b is consistent with predictions from partly cloudy models, suggesting that heterogeneous clouds are the dominant source of the observed modulations. We find evidence at the 3.3σ level for amplitude variations within the 1.67 μm CH{sub 4} band, which is the first such detection for a variable L-dwarf. We compare the HST/G141 time-resolved spectra of three red L-dwarfs with high-amplitude near-infrared rotational modulations and find that although their time-averaged spectra are similar, their spectroscopic variabilities exhibit notable differences. This diversity reinforces the advantage of time-resolved spectroscopic observations for understanding the atmospheres of brown dwarfs and directly imaged exoplanets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

CondiDiag1.0: a flexible online diagnostic tool for conditional sampling and budget analysis in the E3SM atmosphere model (EAM)

Abstract. Numerical models used in weather and climate prediction take into account a comprehensive set of atmospheric processes (i.e., phenomena) such as the resolved and unresolved fluid dynamics, radiative transfer, cloud and aerosol life cycles, and mass or energy exchanges with the Earth's surface. In order to identify model deficiencies and improve predictive skills, it is important to obtain process-level understanding of the interactions between different processes. Conditional sampling and budget analysis are powerful tools for process-oriented model evaluation, but they often require tedious ad hoc coding and large amounts of instantaneous model output, resulting in inefficient use of human and computing resources. This paper presents an online diagnostic tool that addresses this challenge by monitoring model variables in a generic manner as they evolve within the time integration cycle. The tool is convenient to use. It allows users to select sampling conditions and specify monitored variables at run time. Both the evolving values of the model variables and their increments caused by different atmospheric processes can be monitored and archived. Online calculation of vertical integrals is also supported. Multiple sampling conditions can be monitored in a single simulation in combination with unconditional sampling. The paper explains in detail the design and implementation of the tool in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1. The usage is demonstrated through three examples: a global budget analysis of dust aerosol mass concentration, a composite analysis of sea salt emission and its dependency on surface wind speed, and a conditionally sampled relative humidity budget. The tool is expected to be easily portable to closely related atmospheric models that use the same or similar data structures and time integration methods.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quantum Hamilton-Jacobi theory, spectral path integrals, and exact WKB analysis

We propose a new way to perform path integrals in quantum mechanics by using a quantum version of Hamilton-Jacobi (HJ) theory. In classical mechanics, Hamilton-Jacobi theory is a powerful formalism, however, its utility is not explored in quantum theory beyond approximation schemes. The canonical transformation enables one to set the new Hamiltonian to constant or zero, but keeps the information about solution in Hamilton’s characteristic function. To benefit from this in quantum theory, one must work with a formulation in which classical Hamiltonian is used. This uniquely points to phase space path integral. However, the main variable in HJ formalism is energy, not time. Thus, we are led to consider the Fourier transform of the path integral, the spectral path integral Z ˜ ( E ) . The evaluation of path integrals reduces to determining the quantum Hamilton characteristic functions (which can be achieved via an asymptotic analysis) and a discrete sum over the quantum period lattice, generalizing Gutzwiller’s sum. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Türe, Mustafa (ORCID:0009000975968618)↗

IDAES-PSE 2.4.0 Release

The Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Integrated Platform is a versatile computational environment offering extensive process systems engineering (PSE) capabilities for optimizing the design and operation of complex, interacting technologies and systems. IDAES enables users to efficiently search vast, complex design spaces to discover the lowest cost, most environmentally sustainable solutions while supporting the full process modeling lifecycle, from conceptual design to dynamic optimization and control. The extensible, open platform empowers users to create models of novel processes and rapidly develop custom analyses, workflows, and end-user applications.. Deprecations • Convergence Analysis tool (idaes/core/util/convergence): deprecated in favor of new Parameter Sweep tools. To be removed in v3.0.0. New Beta Capabilities • Parameter Sweep Tool (idaes.core.util.parameter_sweep) o A new API for defining and performing parameter sweep studies on IDAES models has been developed • Diagnostics Tools (idaes.core.util.model_diagnostics) o New methods for identifying duplicate variables and constraints have been added to the diagnostics toolbox o New tools for detecting ill conditioning in Jacobians have been developed and are available in the model_diagnostics module. These provide alternatives to the existing DegeneracyHunter toolbox, and will eventually be merged with this capability, but initial working versions have been provided as beta capabilities for interested users o IpoptConvergenceAnalysis (replaces deprecated Convergence Analysis tool):  A new tool for performing convergence analysis studies that leverages the new Parameter Sweep tools has been developed. This tool allows users to define the input parameters to their model and sampling methods for these (leveraging Pysmo's sampling tools) and to then solve their model across the sampled domains and return a summary of the solver performance (IPOPT only) Improved Models • Thickener model (idaes.models.unit_models.solid_liquid.thickener) o Improved model to include predictive correlations for unit sizing based on settling velocity measurements (steady-state only) • Modular Property Packages o Added general support for calculating critical properties of mixtures using defined Equation of State modules. New API defined for Equation of State modules in order to define the necessary constraints for calculating critical properties (most EoS modules DO NOT support calculation of critical properties (yet)) o Added new methods to Cubic Equation of State module to support calculation of critical properties

DiagnosticsToolbox↗

An a priori evaluation of a principal component and artificial neural network based combustion model in diesel engine conditions

A principal component analysis (PCA) and artificial neural network (ANN) based chemistry tabulation approach is presented. ANNs are used to map the thermochemical state onto a low-dimensional manifold consisting of five control variables that have been identified using PCA. Three canonical configurations are considered to train the PCA-ANN model: a series of homogeneous reactors, a nonpremixed flamelet, and a two-dimensional lifted flame. The performance of the model in predicting the thermochemical manifold of a spatially-developing turbulent jet flame in diesel engine thermochemical conditions is a priori evaluated using direct numerical simulation (DNS) data. The PCA-ANN approach is compared with a conventional tabulation approach (tabulation using ad hoc defined control variables and linear interpolation). The PCA-ANN model provides higher accuracy and requires several orders of magnitude less memory. Here, these observations indicate that the PCA-ANN model is superior for chemistry tabulation, especially for modelling complex chemistries that present multiple combustion modes as observed in diesel combustion. The performance of the PCA-ANN model is then compared to the optimal estimator, i.e. the conditional mean from the DNS. The results indicate that the PCA-ANN model gives high prediction accuracy, comparable to the optimal estimator, especially for major species and the thermophysical properties. Higher errors are observed for the minor species and reaction rate predictions when compared to the optimal estimator. It is shown that the prediction of minor species and reaction rates can be improved by using training data that exhibits a variation of parameters as observed in the turbulent flame. The output of the ANN is analysed to assess mass conservation. It is observed that the ANN incurs a mean absolute error of 0.05% in mass conservation. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that this error can be reduced by modifying the cost function of the ANN to penalise for deviation from mass conservation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) in transportation modeling simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed and realistic information on agents’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Various synthetic population generators have been proposed to address this need. However, most of those currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature and do not account for the dynamics within households and individuals as they progress through life events over time. This is a major shortcoming, as literature has shown that transportation decisions are affected by the transition between and co-occurrence of life cycle events. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this issue, they are developed using cross-sectional data and capture only a small set of life cycle events and their interdependence. Addressing these drawbacks, we propose a demographic microsimulator (DEMOS) that captures the “continuum of life” by considering a range of household- and individual-level life cycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, one of the world’s longest-running longitudinal surveys. The DEMOS submodels consider key life cycle events that are influenced by agents’ demographic variables. DEMOS is applied to evolve the population of the San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results demonstrate how DEMOS generates life trajectories and how DEMOS outputs match the observed demographic trends. DEMOS is expected to enable longitudinal analysis in the context of ABMs and expand ABMs analyses relating to dynamic processes such as household-level vehicle transactions.

Demographic evolution↗

A predictive modeling tool for damage analysis and design of hydrogen storage composite pressure vessels

In this study, a predictive modeling tool is developed for damage analysis and design of hydrogen (H 2 ) storage composite pressure vessels. It integrates micromechanics of matrix cracking into a continuum damage mechanics (CDM) description for damage evolution, and three-dimensional (3D) finite element (FE) modeling of the vessel structural response. At the scale of the composite layer (mesoscale), the temperature-dependent stiffness reduction law in terms of the damage variable for transverse matrix cracking is computed using an Eshelby-Mori-Tanaka approach for the initial composite thermoelastic properties and a self-consistent model for the stiffness reduction as a function of the damage variable. While transverse matrix cracking obeying a damage evolution relation can progressively evolve from an initiation to a saturation state, fiber failure is predicted by a micromechanical fiber rupture criterion that accounts for the fiber strength and matrix stress. The implementation of this integrated multiscale modeling model into a 3D FE formulation enables damage analysis and design of H 2 storage composite pressure vessels. The developed tool is illustrated through 3D damage analyses of a cryogenically compressed H 2 storage vessel model subjected to thermomechanical loadings to investigate effects of the helical layer fiber orientation and loading scenario on damage development, vessel integrity and burst pressure.

08 HYDROGEN↗