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DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic quantum Krylov protocol with double-factorized Hamiltonians

Here we propose a class of randomized quantum Krylov diagonalization (rQKD) algorithms capable of solving the eigenstate estimation problem with modest quantum resource requirements. Compared to previous real-time evolution quantum Krylov subspace methods, our approach expresses the time evolution operator e –i$\widehat{H}$$\tau$ as a linear combination of unitaries and subsequently uses a stochastic sampling procedure to reduce circuit depth requirements. While our methodology applies to any Hamiltonian with fast-forwardable subcomponents, we focus on its application to the explicitly double-factorized electronic-structure Hamiltonian. To demonstrate the potential of the proposed rQKD algorithm on near-term quantum devices, we provide numerical benchmarks for a variety of molecular systems with circuit-based state-vector simulators including the effects of sampling noise, achieving ground-state energy errors of less than 1 kcal mol -1 with circuit depths orders of magnitude shallower than those required for low-rank deterministic Trotter-Suzuki decompositions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Emergent quantum mechanics at the boundary of a local classical lattice model

We formulate a model in which quantum mechanics emerges from classical mechanics. Given a local Hamiltonian H acting on n qubits, we define a local classical model with an additional spatial dimension whose boundary dynamics is approximately—but to arbitrary precision—described by Schrödinger's equation and H. The bulk consists of a lattice of classical bits that propagate towards the boundary through a circuit of stochastic matrices. The bits reaching the boundary are governed by a probability distribution whose deviation from the uniform distribution can be interpreted as the quantum-mechanical wave function. Bell nonlocality is achieved because information can move through the bulk much faster than the boundary speed of light. Finally, we analytically estimate how much the model deviates from quantum mechanics, and we validate these estimates using computer simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analytical Voltage Sensitivity Analysis for Unbalanced Power Distribution System

Large scale integration of distributed energy resources and electric vehicles in a transactive energy environment present new challenges in terms of voltage stability and fluctuations in a power distribution system. The impact of different level of DER/EV penetration on the voltages across the network is typically quantified through voltage sensitivity analyses. Existing methods of voltage sensitivity analysis are computationally expensive and prior efforts to develop analytical approximation lacks generality and have not been effectively validated. The objective of this work is to provide a new analytical method of voltage sensitivity analysis that has low computational cost and also allows for stochastic analysis of voltage change. This paper first derives an analytical approximation of change in voltage at a particular bus due to change in power consumption at other bus in a radial three phase unbalanced power distribution system. Then, the proposed method is shown to be valid for different load configurations, which demonstrates its generality. The results from our analytical approach is validated via classical load flow simulation of the test system based on IEEE 37 bus network. The proposed method is shown to have good accuracy, and computation complexity is of order O(1), compared to O(n3) in classical sensitivity analysis approaches.

Munikoti, Sai↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Secure and Adaptive Hierarchical Multi-Timescale Framework for Resilient Load Restoration Using a Community Microgrid

Distribution system integrated community microgrids (CMGs) can partake in restoring loads during extended duration outages. At such times, the CMGs are challenged with limited resource availability, absence of robust grid support, and heightened demand-supply uncertainty. Here, this paper proposes a secure and adaptive three-stage hierarchical multi-timescale framework for scheduling and real-time (RT) dispatch of CMGs with hybrid PV systems to address these challenges. The framework enables the CMG to dynamically expand its boundary to support the neighboring grid sections and is adaptive to the changing forecast error impacts. The first stage solves a stochastic extended duration scheduling (EDS) problem to obtain referral plans for optimal resource rationing. The intermediate near-real-time (NRT) scheduling stage updates the EDS schedule closer to the dispatch time using new obtained forecasts, followed by the RT dispatch stage. To make the decisions more secure and robust against forecast errors, a novel concept called delayed recourse is designed. The approach is evaluated via numerical simulations on a modified IEEE 123-bus system and validated using OpenDSS and hardware-in-loop simulations. The results show superior performance in maximizing load supply and continuous secure distribution network operation under different operating scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Methodology to Evaluate the Grid Reliability Impact of Oscillations Induced by Large Loads

The rapid growth of hyperscale AI data centers is bringing renewed attention to the reliability risk that sustained forced oscillations pose to bulk power systems, with cyclic computational workloads emerging as a new forcing source. Unlike the broadband, stochastic disturbances from traditional industrial loads such as arc furnaces, AI training and inference facilities can inject large active power swings concentrated at specific frequencies over extended durations - characteristics that existing grid planning practices do not account for. While the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has recognized this gap and called for system-level studies of large load interconnections, no standardized methodology exists to screen, simulate, and quantify these risks at the planning stage. This report presents the Risk Assessment Tool for Large Load-induced Events (RATLLE), a Python-based, publicly available script suite developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate bulk power system reliability risks from data center-induced oscillations. RATLLE implements a three-module workflow: a screening module that identifies vulnerable interconnection locations and excitable system modes; a simulation module that models cyclic data center load behavior using a commercial positive sequence simulation platform; and an analysis module that computes risk metrics and generates interactive visualization dashboards. The risk metrics, formulated around simulation observables, map oscillation impacts to a three-stage severity scale spanning latent equipment fatigue through imminent cascading failure. The methodology is demonstrated on two Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system models: a publicly available 240-bus reduced representation and a detailed 2031 Heavy Winter planning case. Case studies illustrate that even modest 50 MW forced oscillations at resonant frequencies can produce wide-area power swings, N-1 security constraint violations, and cascading generator trips through protection actions - outcomes that would not occur under normal operating conditions without oscillations present. The results underscore the need for standardized oscillation impact assessment in large load interconnection studies and provide a reproducible, extensible framework for utilities to adopt or customize within their existing planning workflows.

Biswas, Shuchismita↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

data-driven forecasting↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data and Multistage Optimization for the New Grid

Three essential capabilities for using exascale computing resources on next generation power grid applications are: generating large renewable energy datasets, modeling damage and operations during and after extreme events, and employing multi-stage optimization for infrastructure planning. Powerscenarios, developed as part of the ExaSGD project, addresses these capabilities by enabling users to build synthetic wind farms for large test systems using numerical weather prediction-based data sources. We share examples of using Powerscenarios to build out wind farms on the ACTIVSg2000 test system, to enable simulated operations and emergency asset allocation during a hurricane strike, and to compute multi-stage infrastructure buildouts.

economic dispatch↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources: Preprint

contingencies↗

DOE OSTI2021

Resiliency in numerical algorithm design for extreme scale simulations

Here this work is based on the seminar titled ‘Resiliency in Numerical Algorithm Design for Extreme Scale Simulations’ held March 1–6, 2020, at Schloss Dagstuhl, that was attended by all the authors. Advanced supercomputing is characterized by very high computation speeds at the cost of involving an enormous amount of resources and costs. A typical large-scale computation running for 48 h on a system consuming 20 MW, as predicted for exascale systems, would consume a million kWh, corresponding to about 100k Euro in energy cost for executing 10 23 floating-point operations. It is clearly unacceptable to lose the whole computation if any of the several million parallel processes fails during the execution. Moreover, if a single operation suffers from a bit-flip error, should the whole computation be declared invalid? What about the notion of reproducibility itself: should this core paradigm of science be revised and refined for results that are obtained by large-scale simulation? Naive versions of conventional resilience techniques will not scale to the exascale regime: with a main memory footprint of tens of Petabytes, synchronously writing checkpoint data all the way to background storage at frequent intervals will create intolerable overheads in runtime and energy consumption. Forecasts show that the mean time between failures could be lower than the time to recover from such a checkpoint, so that large calculations at scale might not make any progress if robust alternatives are not investigated. More advanced resilience techniques must be devised. The key may lie in exploiting both advanced system features as well as specific application knowledge. Research will face two essential questions: (1) what are the reliability requirements for a particular computation and (2) how do we best design the algorithms and software to meet these requirements? While the analysis of use cases can help understand the particular reliability requirements, the construction of remedies is currently wide open. One avenue would be to refine and improve on system- or application-level checkpointing and rollback strategies in the case an error is detected. Developers might use fault notification interfaces and flexible runtime systems to respond to node failures in an application-dependent fashion. Novel numerical algorithms or more stochastic computational approaches may be required to meet accuracy requirements in the face of undetectable soft errors. These ideas constituted an essential topic of the seminar. The goal of this Dagstuhl Seminar was to bring together a diverse group of scientists with expertise in exascale computing to discuss novel ways to make applications resilient against detected and undetected faults. In particular, participants explored the role that algorithms and applications play in the holistic approach needed to tackle this challenge. This article gathers a broad range of perspectives on the role of algorithms, applications and systems in achieving resilience for extreme scale simulations. The ultimate goal is to spark novel ideas and encourage the development of concrete solutions for achieving such resilience holistically.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Preemptive Voltage Monitoring and Control Using Probabilistic Voltage Sensitivities

Increased penetration levels of distributed variable renewable generation can cause random voltage fluctuations and violations at multiple nodes. Traditional methods of voltage control typically involve reactionary responses of capacitor banks, tap changers, and recently even smart inverters. But because of the lack of foresight in voltage violations, these controls are ineffective to completely mitigate the issue. Therefore, new methods of predicting voltage violations subject to random power injection changes in the distribution network are needed, which can be used to guide optimal and dynamic methods of voltage control. This work lays the foundation for such preemptive voltage monitoring and control by proposing an analytical and sensor data-driven voltage sensitivity analysis method. Driven by stochastic data and forecasts, the method can be used to develop probabilistic voltage sensitivities and consequently to predict system nodes with high likelihood of voltage limit violations. The effectiveness of this method is tested on IEEE 69-node distribution system integrated with distributed solar. The results demonstrate the proposed method's ability to successfully predict nodes with high probability of voltage violations for a specific time-series simulation. The results also demonstrate the ability to guide timely power injection control actions to mitigate future voltage violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stellar Mass Calibrations for Local Low-mass Galaxies

The stellar masses of galaxies are measured from integrated light via several methods—however, few of these methods were designed for low-mass (M ⋆ ≲ 10 8 M ⊙ ) “dwarf” galaxies, whose properties (e.g., stochastic star formation, low metallicity) pose unique challenges for estimating stellar masses. In this work, we quantify the precision and accuracy at which stellar masses of low-mass galaxies can be recovered using UV/optical/IR photometry. We use mock observations of 469 low-mass galaxies from a variety of models, including both semi-empirical models (GRUMPY and UniverseMachine-SAGA) and cosmological baryonic zoom-in simulations (MARVELous Dwarfs and FIRE-2), to test literature color–M ⋆ /L relations and multiwavelength spectral energy distribution (SED) mass estimators. We identify a list of “best practices” for measuring stellar masses of low-mass galaxies from integrated photometry. We find that literature color–M ⋆ /L relations are often unable to capture the bursty star formation histories (SFHs) of low-mass galaxies, and we develop an updated prescription for stellar mass based on g − r color that is better able to recover stellar masses for the bursty low-mass galaxies in our sample (with ∼0.1 dex precision). SED fitting can also precisely recover stellar masses of low-mass galaxies, but this requires thoughtful choices about the form of the assumed SFH: Parametric SFHs can underestimate stellar mass by as much as ∼0.4 dex, while nonparametric SFHs recover true stellar masses with insignificant offset (−0.03 ± 0.11 dex). Finally, we also caution that noninformative (wide) dust attenuation priors may introduce M ⋆ uncertainties of up to ∼0.6 dex.

de los Reyes, Mithi A. C. [Amherst College, MA (Un↗

NASA NTRS1974

On the robustness of a Bayes estimate

This paper examines the robustness of a Bayes estimator with respect to the assigned prior distribution. A Bayesian analysis for a stochastic scale parameter of a Weibull failure model is summarized in which the natural conjugate is assigned as the prior distribution of the random parameter. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by the Monte Carlo method in which, although an inverted gamma is the assigned prior, realizations are generated using distribution functions of varying shape. For several distributional forms and even for some fixed values of the parameter, simulated mean squared errors of Bayes and minimum variance unbiased estimators are determined and compared. Results indicate that the Bayes estimator remains squared-error superior and appears to be largely robust to the form of the assigned prior distribution.

Canavos, G. C.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Attitude control of Mariner Jupiter-Saturn spacecraft

A major challenge of the Mariner Jupiter-Saturn '77 spacecraft was devising a suboptimal attitude controller that could meet the demanding mission requirements. The challenge was met by implementing a discrete stochastic controller for a specially designed onboard computer. The paper describes the design and operation of the controller, based on a simple model of spacecraft dynamics. Two types of cruising modes are considered: inertial cruise, where spacecraft attitude is determined from gyro position outputs, and celestial cruise, where position information is obtained from sun sensors and a star tracker. These two cruise modes under conditions of disturbances were simulated on computer, and the results showed that the controller maintained the spacecraft attitude with low rates. An appendix gives details on the single-step predictor.

Bahrami, K. A.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The stochastic evolution of asteroidal regoliths and the origin of brecciated and gas-rich meteorites

A model is constructed which views regolith evolution on asteroids as a stochastic process. Average values are shown to be poor descriptors of regolith depth. The utility of the average depth is not significantly increased by avoiding large craters or thick ejecta deposits, a procedure adopted in previous regolith studies. The statistical uncertainty associated with regolith depth severely limits the power of regolith models in predicting parent-body size for brecciated meteorites. A Monte Carlo algorithm was used to simulate the random walks and corresponding charged-particle irradiation histories of grains in regoliths. On rocky asteroids, only about 20 percent of the grains was exposed to solar cosmic ray ions. Results based on present-day conditions in the asteroid belt agree well with irradiation features observed in gas-rich meteorites. An origin during epochs of early solar system evolution is not required.

Housen, K. R.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing computer vision and artificial intelligence algorithms to predict and design the mechanical compression response of direct ink write 3D printed foam replacement structures

Additive Manufacturing (AM) of porous polymeric materials, such as foams, recently became a topic of intensive research due their unique combination of low density, impressive mechanical properties, and stress dissipation capabilities. Conventional methods for fabricating foams rely on complex and stochastic processes, making it challenging to achieve precise architectural control of structured porosity. In contrast, AM provides access to a wide range of printable materials, where precise spatial control over structured porosity can be modulated during the fabrication process enabling the production of foam replacement structures (FRS). Current approaches for designing FRS are based on intuitive understanding of their properties or an extensive number of finite element method (FEM) simulations. These approaches, however, are computationally expensive and time consuming. As such, in this work, we present a novel methodology for determining the mechanical compression response of direct ink write (DIW) 3D printed FRS using a simple cross-sectional image. By obtaining measurement data for a relatively small number of samples, an artificial neural network (ANN) was trained, and a computer vision algorithm was used to make inferences about foam compression characteristics from a single cross-sectional image. Finally, a genetic algorithm (GA) was used to solve the inverse design problem, generating the AM printing parameters that an engineer should use to achieve a desired compression response from a DIW printed FRS. The methods developed herein present an avenue for entirely autonomous design and analysis of additively manufactured structures using artificial intelligence.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Runaway electron deconfinement in SPARC and DIII-D by a passive 3D coil

The operation of a 3D coil—passively driven by the current quench (CQ) loop voltage—for the deconfinement of runaway electrons (REs) is modeled for disruption scenarios in the SPARC and DIII-D tokamaks. Nonlinear magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modeling is carried out with the NIMROD code including time-dependent magnetic field boundary conditions to simulate the effect of the coil. Further modeling in some cases uses the ASCOT5 code to calculate advection and diffusion coefficients for REs based on the NIMROD-calculated fields, and the DREAM code to compute the runaway evolution in the presence of these transport coefficients. Compared with similar modeling in Tinguely et al (2021 Nucl. Fusion 61 124003), considerably more conservative assumptions are made with the ASCOT5 results, zeroing low levels of transport, particularly in regions in which closed flux surfaces have reformed. Of three coil geometries considered in SPARC, only the n = 1 coil is found to have sufficient resonant components to suppress the runaway current growth. Without the new conservative transport assumptions, full suppression of the RE current is maintained when the thermal quench MHD is included in the simulation or when the RE current is limited to 250kA, but when transport in closed flux regions is fully suppressed, these scenarios allow RE beams on the order of 1–2 MA to appear. Additional modeling is performed to consider the effects of the close ideal wall. In DIII-D, the CQ is modeled for both limited and diverted equilibrium shapes. In the limited shape, the onset of stochasticity is found to be insensitive to the coil current amplitude and governed largely by the evolution of the safety-factor profile. In both devices, prediction of the q-profile evolution is seen to be critical to predicting the later time effects of the coil.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the Representation of Hyporheic Exchange in Models for Reactive Transport in Stream and River Corridors

Efforts to include more detailed representations of biogeochemical processes in basin-scale water quality simulation tools face the challenge of how to tractably represent mass exchange between the flowing channels of streams and rivers and biogeochemical hotspots in the hyporheic zones. Multiscale models that use relatively coarse representations of the channel network with subgrid models for mass exchange and reactions in the hyporheic zone have started to emerge to address that challenge. Two such multiscale models are considered here, one based on a stochastic Lagrangian travel time representation of advective pumping and one on multirate diffusive exchange. The two models are formally equivalent to well-established integrodifferential representations for transport of non-reacting tracers in steady stream flow, which have been very successful in reproducing stream tracer tests. Despite that equivalence, the two models are based on very different model structures and produce significantly different results in reactive transport. In a simple denitrification example, denitrification is two to three times greater for the advection-based model because the multirate diffusive model has direct connections between the stream channel and transient storage zones and an assumption of mixing in the transient storage zones that prevent oxygen levels from dropping to the point where denitrification can progress uninhibited. By contrast, the advection-based model produces distinct redox zonation, allowing for denitrification to proceed uninhibited on part of the hyporheic flowpaths. These results demonstrate that conservative tracer tests alone are inadequate for constraining representation of mass transfer in models for reactive transport in streams and rivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2003

Transition-Sensitized Turbulence Models for Compressible and Incompressible Flows

During the grant period from January 1,2002 to December 31,2002 work was carried out on three projects to extend the range of applicability of advanced turbulence models. First, a new transition-sensitized turbulence model was tested and refined. Second, the influence of compressibility on the pressure-strain rate correlation was studied. Third, the relationship between time-filtered large eddy simulation (TLES) and Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) modeling was investigated leading to submission of the article. The transition-sensitized turbulence model encompasses the early-stage transition and turbulent flow regimes describing the evolution of the ensemble mean disturbance energy and dissipation rate. It is founded on a consistent mathematical description of the laminar regime with its linear disturbances and the fully turbulent regime with its stochastic fluctuations. The unified description is provided by the ensemble viewpoint.

Thacker, William D.↗