Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Statistical modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,135 records · Page 63

A failure model for sealed nickel-cadmium batteries

A model has been developed to describe failure in electrochemical batteries. The model is based on the concept of the existence and subsequent growth of flaws which ultimately lead to battery failure. This model provides, in a natural way, for the statistical variability of lifetime data. The model as applied to the Crane data indicates that when the effects of temperature and depth of discharge are taken into account, the observed variability in lifetime data is due almost entirely to statistical variability inherent in the battery itself.

Fedors, R. F.↗

A statistical approach to the brittle fracture of a multi-phase solid

A stochastic damage model is proposed to quantify the inherent statistical distribution of the fracture toughness of a brittle, multi-phase solid. The model, based on the macrocrack-microcrack interaction, incorporates uncertainties in locations and orientations of microcracks. Due to the high concentration of microcracks near the macro-tip, a higher order analysis based on traction boundary integral equations is formulated first for an arbitrary array of cracks. The effects of uncertainties in locations and orientations of microcracks at a macro-tip are analyzed quantitatively by using the boundary integral equations method in conjunction with the computer simulation of the random microcrack array. The short range interactions resulting from surrounding microcracks closet to the main crack tip are investigated. The effects of microcrack density parameter are also explored in the present study. The validity of the present model is demonstrated by comparing its statistical output with the Neville distribution function, which gives correct fits to sets of experimental data from multi-phase solids.

Liu, W. K.↗

The North Pacific as a Regulator of Summertime Climate Over North America and the Asian Monsoon

The interannual variability of summertime rainfall over the U.S. may be linked to climate anomalies over Pacific and East Asia through teleconnection patterns that may be components of recurring global climate modes in boreal summer (Lau and Weng 2002). In this study, maintenance of the boreal summer teleconnection patterns is investigated. The particular focus is on the potential effects of North Pacific air-sea interaction on climate anomalies over the U.S. Observational data, reanalysis and outputs of a series of NASA NSIPP AGCM and AGCM coupled to NASA GSFC MLO model experiments are used. Statistical analysis of observations and NSIPP AMIP type simulations indicates that, the interannual variability of observed warm season precipitation over the U.S. is related to SST variation in both tropical and North Pacific, whereas the NSIPP AMIP simulated summertime US. precipitation variation mainly reflects impact of ENS0 in tropical Pacific. This implies the potential importance of air-sea interaction in North Pacific in contributing to the interannual variability of observed summer climate over the U.S. The anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with the dominant summertime teleconnection modes in both observations and NSIPP AMIP simulations are further diagnosed, using stationary wave modeling approach. In observations, for the two dominant modes, both anomalous diabatic heating and anomalous transients significantly contribute to the anomalous circulation. The distributions of the anomalous diabatic heating and transient forcing are quadrature configured over North Pacific and North America, so that both forcings act constructively to maintain the teleconnection patterns. The contrast between observations and NSIPP AMIP simulations from stationary wave modeling diagnosis confirms the previous conclusion based on statistical analysis. To better appreciate the role of extra-tropical air-sea interaction in maintaining the summertime teleconnection pattern, various dynamical and physical fields and their inter- linkage in the series of NSIPP AGCM and AGCM coupled to MLO model experiments are examined in-depth. Based on comparison between different model experiments, we will discuss the physical and dynamical mechanisms through which the air-sea interaction in extratropics, and transient mean flow interactions over the North Pacific, affects interannual variation of U.S. climate during boreal summer.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Fault detection and diagnosis using neural network approaches

Neural networks can be used to detect and identify abnormalities in real-time process data. Two basic approaches can be used, the first based on training networks using data representing both normal and abnormal modes of process behavior, and the second based on statistical characterization of the normal mode only. Given data representative of process faults, radial basis function networks can effectively identify failures. This approach is often limited by the lack of fault data, but can be facilitated by process simulation. The second approach employs elliptical and radial basis function neural networks and other models to learn the statistical distributions of process observables under normal conditions. Analytical models of failure modes can then be applied in combination with the neural network models to identify faults. Special methods can be applied to compensate for sensor failures, to produce real-time estimation of missing or failed sensors based on the correlations codified in the neural network.

Kramer, Mark A.↗

Expedited Model Building Method for Rocket Nozzle Side Loading

Statistical analysis of test data is currently the preferred method of creating models for uncharacterized side loading in rocket nozzles. However, statistical analysis requires multiple data sets to be reliable; getting these sets requires building and testing multiple rocket motors, which is not feasible given the incredible time and cost required to do so. By using a combination of geometry, simplified finite element analysis (FEA) analogs, and algebra we can create a limited predictive model from only one test data set. Once created, the model requires only the input from one strain gauge located at each yaw and pitch attachment bracket for the actuation system. This process is not computationally intensive, therefore saving an abundance of time and budget over using full 3D FEA models to develop a similar predictive model. To develop the model, conversion factors between the strain at the gauge locations and corresponding actuator load is derived from the data. These conversion factors are used to create a “conversion ellipse” that bounds the constitutive properties of the nozzle as one lumped factor. Using a 2D cross-sectional analog of the nozzle exit plane, we create a function that allows us to determine the azimuthal location of the unexpected load based on the ratio between yaw and pitch strain readings. Combining this with the “conversion ellipse” yields a function that given the strain reading outputs an induced actuator load, regardless of the azimuthal location of the unexpected load. As previously mentioned, this predictive model is limited in its application as there is inaccuracy introduced by the use of data by only one test as well as simplifying assumptions. This approach makes a useful tool to quickly determine whether uncharacterized actuator loading events can damage actuation systems or induce loading that exceeds design limits.

Seetha A Kolli↗

Interval prediction in structural dynamic analysis

Methods for assessing the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models are examined with attention given to the effects of modal mass, stiffness, and damping uncertainties. The methods are based on a nondeterministic analysis called 'interval prediction' in which interval variables are used to describe parameters and responses that are unknown. Statistical databases for generic modeling uncertainties are derived from experimental data and incorporated analytically to evaluate responses. Covariance matrices of modal mass, stiffness, and damping parameters are propagated numerically in models of large space structures by means of three methods. The test data tend to fall within the predicted intervals of uncertainty determined by the statistical databases. The present findings demonstrate the suitability of using data from previously analyzed and tested space structures for assessing the predictive accuracy of an analytical model.

Hasselman, Timothy K.↗

Turbulent Diffusivities for Momentum, Heat, Salt and Passive Scalars

A program began ten years ago to build a turbulence model to describe high Reynolds numbers flows. Specifically, the aim was to devise a model that would satisfy two basic conditions: reproduce available turbulence data (laboratory, numerical simulations, etc.) concerning shear driven flows, buoyancy driven flows, 2D turbulence, freely decaying turbulence etc., and yet be manageable so as to be used, for example, in GCM'S. The model was presented in a series of papers that have appeared in Physics of Fluids since 1996. A total of about 80 turbulence statistics were reproduced. The model has no adjustable parameters. The next step was to apply the model to construct the vertical diffusities K for moment K(sub m), temperature K(sub h), salt K(sub s), and passive scalars K(sub c). First, we took K(sub c) = K(sub h) and tested the model using the GFDL ocean model. The results for the profiles of T and S vs. depth are indistinguishable from those derided using the latest model, the KPP model by the NCAR group. Presently, we are running the same GFDL code relaxing the assumptive K(sub c) = K(sub h). Indeed, the turbulence model yelds a salt diffusivity that depends on R(sub i) and R(sub rho) = ((beta)(delta)S/(alpha)(delta)T/(delta)z) in such a way that K(sub s) may be quite different from K(sub h). Salt fingers and double diffusivity laboratory data are reproduced. Results from the ocean model will be available shortly. Finally, we are trying to derive the horizontal diffusivities with the goal of providing a physically acceptable representation of mesoscale eddies. The recently suggested GMW parameterization has improved several O-GCM results and the goal here is to try to derive/justify it from a turbulence model and/or propose improvements/modifications. Theoretical work is in progress.

Canuto, V. M.↗

Turbulent Diffusivities for Momentum, Heat, Salt and Passive Scalars

A program began ten years ago to build a turbulence model to describe high Reynolds numbers flows. Specifically, the aim was to devise a model that would satisfy two basic conditions: reproduce available turbulence data (laboratory, numerical simulations, etc.) concerning shear driven flows, buoyancy driven flows, 2D turbulence, freely decaying turbulence etc., and yet be manageable so as to be used, for example, in General Circulation Models (GCM'S). The model was presented in a series of papers that have appeared in Physics of Fluids since 1996. A total of about 80 turbulence statistics were reproduced. The model has no adjustable parameters. The next step was to apply the model to construct the vertical diffusities K for moment K(sub m), temperature K(sub h), salt K(sub s). and passive scalars K(sub c). First, we took K(sub s) = K(sub h) and tested the model using the GFDL ocean model. The results for the profiles of T and S vs. depth are indistinguishable from those derived using the latest model, the KPP model by the NCAR group. Presently, we are running the same Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) code relaxing the assumptive K(sub s) = K(sub h). Indeed, the turbulence model yields a salt diffusivity that depends on Ri and R rho (= Beta delta S/delta z/alpha delta T/delta z) in such a way that K(sub s) may be quite different from K(sub h). Salt fingers and double diffusivity laboratory data are reproduced. Results from the ocean model will be available shortly. Finally, we are trying to derive the horizontal diffusivities with the goal of providing a physically acceptable representation of mesoscale eddies. The recently suggested GMW parameterization has improved several O-GCM results and the goal here is to try to derive/justify it from a turbulence model and/or propose improvements/modifications. Theoretical work is in progress.

Canuto, V. M.↗

Turbulent Diffusivities for Momentum, Heat, Salt and Passive Scalars

A program began ten years ago to build a turbulence model to describe high Reynolds numbers flows. Specifically, the aim was to devise a model that would satisfy two basic conditions: reproduce available turbulence data (laboratory, numerical simulations, etc.) concerning shear driven flows, buoyancy driven flows, 2D turbulence, freely decaying turbulence etc., and yet be manageable so as to be used, for example, in GCM'S. The model was presented in a series of papers that have appeared in Physics of FLuids since 1996. A total of about 80 turbulence statistics were reproduced. The model has no adjustable parameters. The next step was to apply the model to construct the vertical diffusivities K for moment K(sub m), temperature K(sub h), salt K(sub g) and passive scalars K(sub c). First, we took K(sub g) = K(sub h) and tested the model using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) ocean model. The results for the profiles of T and S vs. depth are indistinguishable from those derided using the latest model, the KPP model by the NCAR group. Presently, we are running the same GFDL code relaxing the assumptive K(sub g) = K(sub h). Indeed, the turbulence model yields a salt diffusivity that depends on Ri and R Rho (= Beta Sigma S/Sigma z/Alpha Sigma T/Sigma z) in such a way that K(sub g) may be quite different from K(sub h). Salt fingers and double diffusivity laboratory data are reproduced. Results from the ocean model will be available shortly. Finally, we are trying to derive the horizontal diffusivities with the goal of providing a physically acceptable representation of mesoscale eddies. The recently suggested GMW parameterization has improved several O-GCM results and the goal here is to try to derive/justify it from a turbulence model and/or propose improvements/modifications. Theoretical work is in progress.

Canuto, Vittorio↗

Initial Assessment of the Ares I-X Launch Vehicle Upper Stage to Vibroacoustic Flight Environments

The Ares I launch vehicle will be NASA s first new launch vehicle since 1981. Currently in design, it will replace the Space Shuttle in taking astronauts to the International Space Station, and will eventually play a major role in humankind s return to the Moon and eventually to Mars. Prior to any manned flight of this vehicle, unmanned test readiness flights will be flown. The first of these readiness flights, named Ares I-X, is scheduled to be launched in April 2009. The NASA Glenn Research Center is responsible for the design, manufacture, test and analysis of the Ares I-X upper stage simulator (USS) element. As part of the design effort, the structural dynamic response of the Ares I-X launch vehicle to its vibroacoustic flight environments must be analyzed. The launch vehicle will be exposed to extremely high acoustic pressures during its lift-off and aerodynamic stages of flight. This in turn will cause high levels of random vibration on the vehicle's outer surface that will be transmitted to its interior. Critical flight equipment, such as its avionics and flight guidance components are susceptible to damage from this excitation. This study addresses the modelling, analysis and predictions from examining the structural dynamic response of the Ares I-X upper stage to its vibroacoustic excitations. A statistical energy analysis (SEA) model was used to predict the high frequency response of the vehicle at locations of interest. Key to this study was the definition of the excitation fields corresponding to lift off acoustics and the unsteady aerodynamic pressure fluctuations during flight. The predicted results will be used by the Ares I-X Project to verify the flight qualification status of the Ares I-X upper stage components.

Larko, Jeffrey M.↗

Statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature and ozone profile data for trends and model comparison

Work performed during the project period July 1, 1990 to June 30, 1992 on the statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature data, rawinsonde temperature data, and ozone profile data for the detection of trends is described. Our principal topics of research are trend analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data over the period 1978-1989; trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data for the period 1964-1988; trend analysis of Umkehr ozone profile data for the period 1977-1991; and comparison of observed ozone and temperature trends in the lower stratosphere. Analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data indicates the existence of large negative trends at 0.4 mb level, with magnitudes increasing with latitudes away from the equator. Trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data over 184 stations shows significant positive trends about 0.2 C per decade at surface to 500 mb range, decreasing to negative trends about -0.3 C at 100 to 50 mb range, and increasing slightly at 30 mb level. There is little evidence of seasonal variation in trends. Analysis of Umkehr ozone data for 12 northern hemispheric stations shows significant negative trends about -.5 percent per year in Umkehr layers 7-9 and layer 3, but somewhat less negative trends in layers 4-6. There is no pronounced seasonal variation in trends, especially in layers 4-9. A comparison was made of empirical temperature trends from rawinsonde data in the lower stratosphere with temperature changes determined from a one-dimensional radiative transfer calculation that prescribed a given ozone change over the altitude region, surface to 50 km, obtained from trend analysis of ozonsonde and Umkehr profile data. The empirical and calculated temperature trends are found in substantive agreement in profile shape and magnitude.

Tiao, G. C.↗

Statistical fatigue of unnotched composite laminates

A general analytical, phenomenological model is developed for characterizing fatigue damage accumulation in unnotched composite laminates, and experimental results are used to evaluate the model. The fatigue model, which is developed for various types of cyclic loadings, is based on the assumption that the residual strength reduction is a monotonically decreasing function of the fatigue life. Parameters are determined from baseline test data consisting of one set of residual strength data, one set of static strength data, and one set of constant amplitude fatigue life data. Once the parameters are determined, the model is able to predict: (1) the statistical distribution of the fatigue life, and the residual strength under constant and variable amplitude loads, and (2) the effect of periodic proof tests, without any additional experimental data. Experimental test results show that predictions made from the present model agree quite well with the experimental results. The model is also applicable to fatigue of bonded or bolted composite joints.

Yang, J. N.↗

Translation of shuttle operations simulation from GPSS 2 to GPSS 1100

A method has been developed which enables a programmer to convert the General Purpose Systems Simulator (GPSS) 2 simulation language into the GPSS 1100 language. To accomplish the conversion, a translator deck is used in addition to hand changes made by the analyst after translation. The conversion of a particular GPSS 2 program used at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is reported and major changes required for compatibility of the two languages are summerized. Validation of the GPSS 1100 model was completed by comparing the results of the GPSS 2 statistics to the converted 1100 model.

Marshall, A. J.↗

Loss Factor Estimation Using the Impulse Response Decay Method on a Stiffened Structure

High-frequency vibroacoustic modeling is typically performed using energy-based techniques such as Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA). Energy models require an estimate of the internal damping loss factor. Unfortunately, the loss factor is difficult to estimate analytically, and experimental methods such as the power injection method can require extensive measurements over the structure of interest. This paper discusses the implications of estimating damping loss factors using the impulse response decay method (IRDM) from a limited set of response measurements. An automated procedure for implementing IRDM is described and then evaluated using data from a finite element model of a stiffened, curved panel. Estimated loss factors are compared with loss factors computed using a power injection method and a manual curve fit. The paper discusses the sensitivity of the IRDM loss factor estimates to damping of connected subsystems and the number and location of points in the measurement ensemble.

Cabell, Randolph↗

Heterogeneity and Chemical Reactivity of the Remote Troposphere Defined By Aircraft Measurements - Corrected

The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission built a photochemical climatology of air parcels based on in situ measurements with the NASA DC-8 aircraft along objectively planned profiling transects through the middle of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. In this paper we present and analyze a data set of 10 s (2 km) merged and gap-filled observations of the key reactive species driving the chemical budgets of O3 and CH4 (O3, CH4, CO, H2O, HCHO, H2O2, CH3OOH, C2H6, higher alkanes, alkenes, aromatics, NOx, HNO3, HNO4, peroxyacetyl nitrate, and other organic nitrates), consisting of 146 494 distinct air parcels from ATom deployments 1 through 4. Six models calculated the O3 and CH4 photochemical tendencies from this modeling data stream for ATom 1. We find that 80 %–90 % of the total reactivity lies in the top 50 % of the parcels and 25 %–35 % in the top 10 %, supporting previous model-only studies that tropospheric chemistry is driven by a fraction of all the air. Surprisingly, the probability densities of species and reactivities averaged on a model scale (100 km) differ only slightly from the 2 km ATom 10 s data, indicating that much of the heterogeneity in tropospheric chemistry can be captured with current global chemistry models. Comparing the ATom reactivities over the tropical oceans with climatological statistics from six global chemistry models, we find generally good agreement with the reactivity rates for O3 and CH4. Models distinctly underestimate O3 production below 2 km relative to the mid-troposphere, and this can be traced to lower NOx levels than observed. Attaching photochemical reactivities to measurements of chemical species allows for a richer, yet more constrained-to-what-matters, set of metrics for model evaluation.

Tropospheric Chemistry↗

Complexity of life via collective mind

e mind is introduced as a set of simple intelligent units (say, neurons, or interacting agents), which can communicate by exchange of information without explicit global control. Incomplete information is compensated by a sequence of random guesses symmetrically distributed around expectations with prescribed variances. Both the expectations and variances are the invariants characterizing the whole class of agents. These invariants are stored as parameters of the collective mind, while they contribute into dynamical formalism of the agents' evolution, and in particular, into the reflective chains of their nested abstract images of the selves and non-selves. The proposed model consists of the system of stochastic differential equations in the Langevin form representing the motor dynamics, and the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation representing the mental dynamics (Motor dynamics describes the motion in physical space, while mental dynamics simulates the evolution of initial errors in terms of the probability density). The main departure of this model from Newtonian and statistical physics is due to a feedback from the mental to the motor dynamics which makes the Fokker-Planck equation nonlinear. Interpretation of this model from mathematical and physical viewpoints, as well as possible interpretation from biological, psychological, and social viewpoints are discussed. The model is illustrated by the dynamics of a dialog.

collective intelligence↗

The Global Mapping of Electron Precipitation and Ionospheric Conductance From Whistler-Mode Chorus Waves

Auroral precipitation is the second major energy source after solar irradiation that ionizes the Earth’s upper atmosphere. Diffuse electron aurora caused by wave-particle interaction in the inner magnetosphere (L < 8) takes over 60% of total auroral energy flux, strongly contributing to the ionospheric conductance and thus to the ionosphere-thermosphere dynamics. This paper quantifies the impact of chorus waves on the diffuse aurora and the ionospheric conductance during quiet, medium, and strong geomagnetic activities, parameterized by AE <100, 100 < AE < 300, and AE > 300, respectively. Using chorus wave statistics and inner-magnetosphere plasma conditions from Timed History Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) observations, we directly derive the energy spectrum of diffuse electron precipitation under quasi-linear theory. We then calculate the height-integrated conductance from the wave-driven aurora spectrum using the electron impact ionization model of Fang et al. (Geophys. Res. Lett., 2010, 37) and the MSIS atmosphere model. By utilizing Fang’s ionization model, the US Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scattar Radar (NRLMSISE-00) model from 2000s for the neutral atmosphere components, and the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Full Diffusion Code, we improve upon the standard generalization of Maxwellian diffuse electron precipitation patterns and their resulting ionosphere conductance. Our study of global auroral precipitation and ionospheric conductance from chorus wave statistics is the first statistical model of its kind. We show that the total electron flux and conductance pattern from our results agree with those of Ovation Prime model over the pre-midnight to post-dawn sector as geomagnetic activity increases. Our study examines the relative contributions of upper band chorus (UBC) and lower band chorus wave (LBC) driven conductance in the ionosphere. We found LBC waves drove diffuse electron precipitation significantly more than UBC waves, however it is possible that THEMIS data may have underestimated the upper chorus band wave observations for magnetic latitudes below 65 degrees. ° .

diffuse auroral precipitation↗

Artificial Generation of 2-D Fiber Reinforced Composite Microstructures with Statistically Equivalent Features

Fiber reinforced composites are used widely for their high strength and low weight advantages in various aerospace and automotive applications. While their use may be sought after, modeling of these material requires increasing fidelity at the lower scales to capture accurate material behavior under loading. The first steps in creating statistically equivalent models to real life cases is developing a method of rapid evaluation and artificial microstructure generation. The outlined work is capable of tracking microscale fiber positions and determining regions of localized volume fraction extrema (high and low end). Groupings of high and low volume fraction regions are called clusters and their geometry is used to characterize the microstructure. These cluster features can be evaluated for both artificial models and actual scans, allowing correlation to be established which can ultimately be used to regenerate statistically equivalent models. The results of this work show that if one feature is to be correlated, a model can be generated which matches almost exactly. But once more features are equally taken into account, the regeneration loses accuracy.

micromechanics↗