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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Modifications to Solar Titan-130 Combustion Systems for Efficient, High Turndown Operation

The project team of Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®), Solar Turbines Incorporated (Solar), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the University of California, Irvine (UCI), and the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) investigated methods to allow higher efficiency part-load operation of a Solar Titan 130 gas turbine. The objective was to develop a low-emission combustion system capable of sustaining combustion and avoiding lean blowout during high turndown operation, which would allow the gas turbine to operate as efficiently as possible at part load. Currently, electric utility markets are beginning to experience substantial increases in renewable energy generation. Some of these renewable energy sources have highly variable output in an uncontrolled manner. In order to maintain grid stability, there is a need for power plants to ramp up power to the grid rapidly to make up for drops in renewable generation. This is often termed spinning reserve, but the size of this reserve may need to increase as renewable penetration into the electric utility market increases. Small combined heat and power (CHP) power plants provide a promising option for meeting this spinning reserve requirement. In order to operate in spinning reserve while still meeting the heat requirements for the CHP, the gas turbine needs to operate efficiently at very low loads. Efficient, high turndown operations in this engine are limited by the lean flammability limit of the premixed combustion system. This project sought enhance the lean operability range of the Titan 130 combustor. First, the project team participated in a brainstorming activity and ultimately selected two concepts to explore: fuel augmentation with hydrogen (H2) to improve the stability at lean operating conditions and modifications to the fuel nozzle to improve the emissions performance at lean operating conditions. Analytical and laboratory investigations were accomplished by UCI to investigate the efficacy of H2 addition at improving lean blow out (LBO) limits and the resulting emissions. These investigations used a variety of chemical reactor network (CRN) and CFD models, validated against laboratory data, to model the impact of H 2 and inform the experimental efforts accomplished by SwRI and Solar. Ultimately, both the CRN and CFD models yielded generally good agreement with the experimental data below a particular temperature threshold. Atmospheric tests of a full-scale T130 annular combustor were performed at SwRI facilities in San Antonio, Texas, to investigate the use of H 2 addition. For these tests, the T130 combustion system remained largely unchanged; minor modifications were performed to the fuel ducting to allow for the safe use of H 2 . The test ultimately demonstrated that the addition of H 2 to the fuel mixture significantly increased the AFR ratio at which the combustor could operate. This improvement to the LBO limit should allow for less use of compressor bleed and less throttling needed by the inlet guide vanes (IGV). This in turn could result in more efficient operation of the gas turbine at lower load points. The second modification explored in this work was a direct modification to the T130 injector. The project team hypothesized that modifications to the pilot of the T130 injector could provide lower emissions at high turn-down operations. These modifications were manufactured and explored by the team at Solar. High pressure rig tests, originally slated to occur at SwRI, were ultimately accomplished by Solar to maintain overall project budget and mitigate cost growth attributable to supply chain issues and inflation. The pressurized rig tests ultimately showed that the SwRI Project No. 18.24153 - DE-EE0008415 Page 2 Final Technical Report January 24, 2024 modifications did not significantly alter the performance of the combustion system at the high turn-down conditions; both the modified injectors and the baseline configuration exhibited elevated emissions comparted to the full-load operating condition. A final set of studies performed by EPRI investigated the benefit-cost of flexible CHP as well as a grid interconnection study for the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) grid. These studies considered: traditional CHP with no spinning reserve available for on-demand grid support, 50% flexible CHP where 50% of the machine’s capacity is consumed by on-site baseload operations while providing an additional 50% capacity for on-demand grid support, and 70% flexible CHP where 70% of capacity is consumed on-site by baseload operations and 30% is available for on-demand grid support. In all cases, the analyses showed a benefit-to-cost ratio greater than unity implying a positive net present value for all configurations. However, the traditional CHP showed the most economic benefit. These results are sensitive to several factors, many of which are not fully known and may vary over time. Thus site owners must be convinced that taking up the increased costs and risks from flexible CHP would be worth implementing. As the grid in California and across the country transition to incorporate larger renewable energy generation, flexible CHP can provide much needed operating reserves and dispatchability. Alternative fuel options, such as hydrogen blending and biofuels, may also lower carbon intensities of CHP. Flexible CHP should be examined in the evolving market to understand innovative business models, changes market rules and services, and new technologies.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solid State Quantum Refrigeration Superconducting, Absorption and Measurement Based (Final Technical Report)

During this DOE grant, DE-SC0017890, in place for the past six years, all proposed research was carried out and published in peer-reviewed papers, as well as other projects that emerged during the research. In that effort the research team accomplished all proposed research, as well as many closely related research projects discovered and conceived of during the grant. These works included “Efficient Quantum Measurement Engines”, a work published in Physical Review Letters, giving a theory of quantum measurement-based engines, which uses quantum measurement as a resource. These engines are designed to efficiently convert energy from the stochastic quantum measurement process into useful work. Further publications include “Experimental Realization of a Quantum Dot Energy Harvester”, a joint theory and experimental work in collaboration with the group of Charles Smith in Cambridge, UK, as well as long time theoretical collaborators, Rafael Sánchez and Björn Sothmann. This work, featured as an Editor’s Suggestion in Physical Review Letters, realized an earlier theoretical proposal of ours, whereby two resonant tunneling quantum dots are connected to a central electronic cavity that is heated by a hot energy source. We also published “Superconducting Quantum Refrigerator: Breaking and Rejoining Cooper Pairs with Magnetic Field Cycles” a work done in collaboration with experimentalist Francesco Giazotto from ENS Pisa, Italy, which also resulted in a patent. This paper, published in Phys. Rev. Applied, advanced the concept of a cyclic fridge based on the normal/superconducting phase transition together with layered materials separated by tunnel junctions. We also completed the proposed research on a heat transistor, publishing “Thermal transistor and thermometer based on Coulomb-coupled conductors”, carried out as a collaboration between my group and theorists Splettstoesser (Lund U., Sweden), Sothmann (U. Duisburg-Essen, Germany), and Sánchez (U. Autónoma de Madrid, Spain). We carried out an analysis of a quantum coupled to a quantum point contact as a sensitive thermometer and heat transistor. We found the optimal statistical estimator for the temperature and compared it with experiments on the same type of devices. We also investigated autonomous quantum absorption refrigerators using quantum dots to cool by using a very hot thermal reservoir to drive heat between two other reservoirs. In the article “Quantifying the quantum heat contribution from a driven superconducting circuit”, we demonstrated that for a driven superconducting circuit, we showed heat flow provided by a hot source to the qubit can be switched on and off by varying external parameters, the frequency and the intensity of the driving. In the work “Stochastic thermodynamic cycles of a mesoscopic thermoelectric engine”, we reconsidered the autonomous thermoelectric heat engine in terms of underlying cycles. Rather than periodic behavior, the cycles were stochastic in nature. Nevertheless, by undertaking a graph theoretical analysis of the elementary transport processed, great quantitative and qualitative insight could be found. We also considered the quantum measurement process and showed that a quantum version of Maxwell’s demon could be related to the work extraction of a quantum system, closely related to arrow-of-time measures for quantum measurement, as described in our article “Thermodynamics of quantum measurement and Maxwell's demon's arrow of time”. This work was selected in Phys. Rev. A as an Editor’s Suggestion. A recent preprint titled “Cyclic Superconducting Quantum Refrigerators Using Guided Fluxon Propagation” accomplished an important piece of this grant: to propose a new kind of quantum refrigerator using the dynamics of fluxons in a type II superconductor. This invention envisioned a race-track type geometry where fluxons are confined. By applying a gradient of magnetic field together with electric current in a Corbino geometry, the circulating fluxons can actively cool a cold reservoir, realizing a new type of cyclic superconducting refrigerator. We also investigated the possibility of thermal control from different points of view. The application of quantum measurement to the system gives a new kind of control on the system of interest – we have pioneered this approach and shown that measurement can boost the thermal power of quantum engines as described in “Continuous measurement boosted adiabatic quantum thermal machines”. The ability to have heat flows on demand is an outstanding challenge, and we have provided new solutions to this problem in Thermal control across a chain of electronic nanocavities” for a chain of electron cavities using gating voltage control. The control methods using qubit/qubit coupling to create absorption fridges at their most fundamental level have also been developed.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Source Data Aggregation and Real-Time Anomaly Classification and Localization in Power Distribution Systems

This paper proposes a real-time anomaly location and classification framework for power distribution systems to simultaneously determine the type of anomaly (i.e., short-circuit fault, cyber attack, DER switching) and its location. The proposed framework employs the data aggregation module to collect the measurement data from multiple field devices operating at different sampling rates, such as protection relays and D-PMUs. The output of the data aggregation is then fed into a multi-task learning-based long-based short-term memory (MTL-LSTM) to classify the type of anomaly and the location in two separate tasks. The proposed MTL-LSTM approach can be utilized in real-time operation in order to distinguish between normal and several anomalous operations and locate the anomaly. The proposed framework is tested on a modified IEEE 33-bus test feeder benchmark that integrates solar generation and energy storage. Furthermore, the results show that the proposed framework can locate and classify anomalies for several operation conditions with more than 96% accuracy. Further experiments highlight the impact of aggregating multiple sources of data on the performance of the proposed model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Probability of Containment Effectiveness at a GCS Sites using integrated assessment modeling approach with Bayesian decision Networks

Improved scientific and engineering understanding of the behavior of geologic CO2 storage together with established regulatory framework and incentive structures raise the prospects for accelerated, large-scale deployment of this greenhouse gas emissions reduction approach. Incentive structures call for the establishment of appropriate verification and accounting approaches to support claims of the integrity of a geologic storage complex and to justify taking credit for long-term storage. In this study, we present a framework for assessing the probability of containment effectiveness over the lifetime of a geologic carbon storage site (e.g., after 70 years of injection and post-injection site performance) using forward stochastic model realizations based on site characterization data and using a monitoring-informed Bayesian network based on hypothetical detectability from surface seismic surveys over the site injection and post-injection phases. The National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) was utilized to develop an ensemble of 10,000 a priori stochastic forecasts of CO2 containment. Those simulations were used to train the Bayesian network model to estimate the prior probabilities of the CO2 leakage mass into overlying, monitorable aquifers considering the uncertainties in the reservoir properties, permeability of potentially leaky wells and the overlying aquifers. The conditional probabilities in the Bayesian network were either learned from the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations or derived from the predefined detection thresholds for the monitoring method. Observations obtained from monitoring, over time during the site operation phases were then used to generate updated posterior probabilities of containment (and any loss from containment) in the Bayesian network by propagating the prior probabilities through the conditional probabilities. We demonstrate how to construct and use the Bayesian network for verifying the long-term storage complex effectiveness informed by monitoring based on the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations previously developed for the FutureGen 2.0 site. This approach may have relevance for stake holders to demonstrate secure geologic storage, provide a defensible, probabilistic approach to claim credit for geologic storage, and to estimate the likelihood that any fraction of the claimed credit may need to be refunded to the creditor based on available monitoring information.

Bayesian network, Risk assessment, Monitoring, car↗
DOE OSTI2023

A multi-MeV alpha particle source via proton-boron fusion driven by a 10-GW tabletop laser

Nuclear fusion between protons and boron-11 nuclei has undergone a revival of interest thanks to the rapid progress in pulsed laser technology. Potential applications of such reaction range from controlled nuclear fusion to radiobiology and cancer therapy. A laser-driven fusion approach consists in the interaction of high-power, high-intensity pulses with H- and B-rich targets. We report on an experiment exploiting proton-boron fusion in CN-BN targets to obtain high-energy alpha particle beams (up to 5 MeV) using a very compact approach and a tabletop laser system with a peak power of ~10 GW, which can operate at high-repetition rate (up to 1 kHz). The secondary resonance in the cross section of proton-boron fusion (~150 keV in the center-of-mass frame) is exploited using a laser-based approach. The generated alpha particles are characterized in terms of energy, flux, and angular distribution using solid-state nuclear-track detectors, demonstrating a flux of ~10 5 particles per second at 10 Hz, and ~10 6 per second at 1 kHz. Hydrodynamic and particle-in-cell numerical simulations support our experimental findings. Potential impact of our approach on future spread of ultra-compact, multi-MeV alpha particle sources driven by moderate intensity (10 16 -10 17 W/cm 2 ) laser pulses is anticipated.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration: Phase III (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) is one of 7 regional partnerships formed in 2003 under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs) initiative. The overall purpose of the initiative was to help determine and implement the technology, infrastructure, and regulations most appropriate to promote carbon storage in different regions of the country. Covering Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, and parts of Texas, Wyoming, and Kansas, the SWP evaluated regional carbon storage and utilization potential and focused on technologies and sites that could complement the region’s strong position in energy production. The project progressed through three phases: • Phase I (2003–2005): Characterized regional geologic formations and CO 2 sources, assessed sequestration potential, and identified pilot test sites. • Phase II (2005–2013): Conducted small-scale field tests to validate sequestration methods, including geologic and terrestrial projects. • Phase III (2008–2022): Demonstrated large-scale CO 2 injection at a commercial oil field to test monitoring, verification, and long-term storage strategies. This report covers Phase III. The final project site, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) in Texas, provided real-world testing of reservoir characterization, monitoring, and risk evaluation tools and processes that could be used in any commercial scale carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) project. Extensive data collection and analysis helped refine best practices for reservoir characterization, injection monitoring, and storage verification. The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Key lessons learned include the importance of robust data management, strategic site selection, regulatory navigation, and effective industry collaboration. The project’s findings will inform ongoing and future carbon storage initiatives. Task 1 (Regional Characterization) • The SWP continued to participate in national outreach efforts and NATCARB. • The SWP evaluated multiple potential sites before selecting the FWU as the primary field test location. Task 2 (Public Outreach and Education) • The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Task 3 (Permitting and Regulatory Compliance) • The SWP ensured compliance with federal and state regulations, including National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements. • The SWP obtained all necessary permits for drilling, injection, and monitoring activities. Task 4 (Site Characterization and Planning) • The SWP developed work plans for four key activities: characterization, simulation, monitoring and verification, and risk evaluation. • The SWP collected and synthesized legacy data from multiple sources to build initial static geological models and dynamic reservoir models demonstrating project feasibility. • The SWP conducted an initial risk evaluation and developed mitigation plans. Task 5 (Field Operations and Data Collection) • The SWP drilled, logged, and cored three characterization wells to gather critical subsurface data. • The SWP conducted multiple geophysical surveys, including 3D seismic, crosswell seismic, and vertical seismic profiling, to improve reservoir characterization. Task 6 (Monitoring and Verification) • The SWP performed extensive geological characterization using data from characterization wells and seismic surveys. • The SWP established a surface monitoring network to track CO 2 flux in soil gas, groundwater chemistry, and near-surface atmospheric CO 2 levels. • The SWP built and refined reservoir models to study the effects of relative permeability on simulation behavior and improve calibration with experimental data. Task 7 (Risk Assessment and Model Refinement) • The SWP conducted multiple studies to evaluate reservoir integrity, predict CO 2 plume behavior and improve predictive modeling capabilities. • The SWP refined geological models and used them to enhance the accuracy of simulation models. • The SWP continued quantitative risk assessment of top-ranked risks and strengthened the link between qualitative and quantitative risk methodologies.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advanced Characterization Techniques for Overcoming Challenges of Perovskite Solar Cell Materials

Abstract In the last 10 years, organic–inorganic hybrid perovskite solar cells have achieved unprecedented advances, to the point where they now exhibit extremely high efficiency. However, long‐term stability and areal scalability limitations impede the commercial application of perovskite materials, and appropriate diagnosistic tools have become necessary to evaluate perovskite materials. Characterization of perovskite materials is regularly misinterpretated, due to unique intrinsic and extrinsic factors: degradation from the measurement source, ion migration, phase transition, and separation. Herein, studies on perovskites are reviewed that have used advanced characterization tools to overcome characterization challenges. Cryogenic temperature assisted measurements mitigate degradation or phase transitions induced by the measurement source. In situ measurements can track the variation of perovskite materials depending on external stimuli. Spatial material properties are able to be evaluated by the use of multidimensional mapping techniques. An overview of these advanced characterization tools that can overcome the challenges associated with established tools provides the opportunity for further understanding perovskite materials and solving the remaining challenges on the road to commercialization.

Kim, Min‐cheol↗
DOE OSTI2025

Low-nickel cathode chemistry for sustainable and high-energy lithium-ion batteries

The transition to sustainable energy storage demands lithium-ion batteries with high energy density and reduced reliance on critical metals such as nickel (Ni), yet current strategies to increase capacity have largely depended on raising Ni content, leading to escalating supply risks, rising costs and sustainability concerns. More critically, Ni-rich cathodes suffer from rapid electrochemical degradation driven by structural instability, creating an insurmountable trade-off between capacity and cycle life. Here, in this study, we introduce a low-Ni chemistry cathode, Li(Li 0.05 Ni 0.57 Mn 0.31 Co 0.07 )O 2 , with a radial phase integration design that overcomes these limitations, enabling a remarkable Ni usage reduction (Ni < 0.6) while demonstrating high capacity (215 mAh g −1 ) and markedly improved cyclability (~97% retention over 400 cycles) compared to conventional high-Ni cathodes (Ni = 0.8). Advanced X-ray and electron microscopy analyses reveal that the designed cathode exhibits a highly reversible oxygen anionic redox, benefiting from a structurally stable surface and minimizing irreversible phase transitions. Moreover, the integrated structure substantially mitigates lattice strain and improves mechanical stability even under harsh conditions. In conclusion, this advance offers a general design principle for developing next-generation cathodes that combine resource efficiency with long-term electrochemical reliability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Source-agnostic gravitational-wave detection with recurrent autoencoders

Abstract We present an application of anomaly detection techniques based on deep recurrent autoencoders (AEs) to the problem of detecting gravitational wave (GW) signals in laser interferometers. Trained on noise data, this class of algorithms could detect signals using an unsupervised strategy, i.e. without targeting a specific kind of source. We develop a custom architecture to analyze the data from two interferometers. We compare the obtained performance to that obtained with other AE architectures and with a convolutional classifier. The unsupervised nature of the proposed strategy comes with a cost in terms of accuracy, when compared to more traditional supervised techniques. On the other hand, there is a qualitative gain in generalizing the experimental sensitivity beyond the ensemble of pre-computed signal templates. The recurrent AE outperforms other AEs based on different architectures. The class of recurrent AEs presented in this paper could complement the search strategy employed for GW detection and extend the discovery reach of the ongoing detection campaigns.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Generating Uncertainty Distributions for Seismic Signal Onset Times

Signal arrival-time estimation plays a critical role in a variety of downstream seismic analyses, including location estimation and source characterization. Any arrival-time errors propagate through subsequent data-processing results. In this article, we detail a general framework for refining estimated seismic signal arrival times along with full estimation of their associated uncertainty. Using the standard short-term average/long-term average threshold algorithm to identify a search window, we demonstrate how to refine the pick estimate through two different approaches. In both cases, new waveform realizations are generated through bootstrap algorithms to produce full a posteriori estimates of uncertainty of onset arrival time of the seismic signal. The onset arrival uncertainty estimates provide additional data-derived information from the signal and have the potential to influence seismic analysis along several fronts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Comparison of GPU-Accelerated Multiphase CFD Solvers on the Polaris Supercomputer: Part 1

This report is in support of the Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (INCITE) program sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE). With INCITE-level resources, one project, titled BubblyFlow, was granted computational resources for the 2025 calendar year on the Polaris supercomputer at the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF). The project aims to conduct simulations to understand the fundamental characteristics of turbulent bubbly flow phenomena in nature. Staff at the ALCF and Argonne’s Computational Science division, along with collaborators at the City College of New York and University of Illinois at Chicago, helped a summer student to assess the accuracy and performance of two high performance computing (HPC) codes. Both codes, ImExLBM and FluTAS, are fundamentally different in their mathematical and numerical modeling. However, both may be used to solve the same physical problem. The collaboration sought to better understand the differences between both codes in terms of accuracy and efficiency. This would ultimately help the BubblyFlow project better utilize resources and establish a knowledge-base of code capabilities in future simulation campaigns. We compare ImExLBM and FluTAS, two high-performance multiphase computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solvers, in terms of physical fidelity, time-to-solution, and parallel efficiency. We validate ImExLBM (Implicit-Explicit Lattice Boltzmann Method) against a canonical benchmark and assess it’s performance relative to FluTAS (Fluid Transport Accelerated Solver), a well-established open-source CFD code.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Efficient Measurement-Driven Eigenenergy Estimation with Classical Shadows

Quantum algorithms exploiting real-time evolution under a target Hamiltonian have demonstrated remarkable efficiency in extracting key spectral information. However, the broader potential of these methods, particularly beyond ground-state calculations, is underexplored. In this work, we introduce the framework of multiobservable dynamic mode decomposition (MODMD), which combines the observable dynamic mode decomposition (DMD), a measurement-driven eigensolver tailored for near-term implementation, with classical shadow tomography. MODMD leverages random scrambling in the classical shadow technique to construct, with exponentially reduced resource requirements, a signal subspace that encodes rich spectral information. Notably, we replace typical Hadamard-test circuits with a protocol designed to predict low-rank observables, thereby broadening the use of classical shadow tomography for predicting many low-rank observables. We establish theoretical guarantees on the spectral approximation from MODMD, taking into account distinct sources of error. In the ideal case, we prove that the spectral error scales as exp (−Δ⁢𝐸⁢𝑡 max ), where Δ⁢𝐸 is the Hamiltonian spectral gap and 𝑡 max is the maximal simulation time. This analysis provides a rigorous justification of the rapid convergence observed across simulations. To demonstrate the utility of our framework, we consider its application to fundamental tasks, such as determining the low-lying, i.e., ground or excited, energies of representative many-body systems. Our work paves the path for efficient designs of measurement-driven algorithms on near-term and early fault-tolerant quantum devices.

quantum algorithms & computation↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Seismic Signature of a High-Energy Density Physics Laboratory and Its Potential for Measuring Time-Dependent Velocity Structure

The Z Machine at Sandia National Laboratories is a pulsed power facility for high-energy density physics experiments that can shock materials to extreme temperatures and pressures through a focused energy release of up to ~ 25 MJ in < 100 nanoseconds. It has been in operation for more than two decades and conducts up to ~ 100 experiments, or “shots,” per year. Based on a set of 74 known shot times from 2018, we determined that Z Machine shots produce detectable ~ 3–17 Hz ground motion 12 km away at the Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory, New Mexico (ANMO), borehole seismograph, with peak signal at ~ 7 Hz. The known shot waveforms were used to create a three-component template, leading to the detection of 2339 Z Machine shots since 1998 through single-station cross-correlation. Local seismic magnitude estimates range from local magnitude (M L ) —2 to —1.3 and indicate that only a small fraction of the shot energy is transmitted by seismic phases observable at 12 km distance. The most recent major facility renovation, which was intended to decrease mechanical dissipation, is associated with an abrupt decrease in observed seismic amplitudes at ANMO despite stable maximum shot energy. The highly repetitive impulsive sources are well suited to coda-wave interferometry to investigate time-dependent velocity structures. Relative velocity variations (dv/v) show an annual cycle with amplitude of ~ 0.2%. Local minima are observed in the late spring, and dv/v increases through the summer monsoon rainfall, possibly reflecting patchy saturation as rainfall infiltrates near the eastern edge of the Albuquerque basin. Importantly, the cumulative results demonstrate that forensic seismology can provide insight into long-term operation of facilities such as pulsed-power laboratories, and that their recurring signals may be valuable for studies of time-dependent structure

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Potential and Cost of Carbon Dioxide Removal Using Direct Air Capture with Land-Based Wind and Utility-Scale Photovoltaics

The rapid deployment of direct air capture and storage (DACS) is critical for achieving emission targets, necessitating precise evaluation of the scale and cost of carbon dioxide removal. This study examines the availability of land, electricity generation, and geologic CO 2 storage within the United States, estimating a technical potential for low-temperature, adsorbent-based DACS to remove approximately 9 gigatonnes of CO 2 annually. By 2050, a substantial portion of this removal could be achieved at net-removed costs below $\$$300/tonneCO 2 , though costs are highly variable depending on factors such as facility scale, construction expenses, climate-dependent productivity and heating efficiency, and geologic storage conditions. In the short term, DACS deployment will help identify key research priorities for advancing technology and reducing removal costs. Concurrently, there is an urgent need for scientifically robust and standardized frameworks for monitoring, reporting, and verifying DACS performance across both established and emerging technologies and energy sources.

Carbon capture↗
DOE OSTI2024

DEVELOPMENT AND DEMONSTRATION TESTBED FOR THE REMOTE OPERATIONS AND MONITORING OF MICROREACTORS

The nuclear industry is rapidly developing many advanced-reactor concepts for near-term deployment in both traditional and non-traditional nuclear-powered applications. One such category of advanced reactor is the microreactor, a class of reactor with less than 20MWth power output, intended for applications where the economics or logistics of traditional power sources are difficult. This includes applications such as remote communities, mining sites, defense installations, or humanitarian and disaster-relief missions. One key enabling feature for the successful deployment of microreactors is a remote operations capability. Remote operations provide monitoring and control capabilities which can significantly reduce staffing costs by eliminating the need for licensed operators at each reactor facility and improve the economic viability for microreactor deployment. A remote concept of operations is not currently an established capability in the nuclear industry. In addition, no demonstration microreactor is expected to complete construction or go critical until at least 2026. This leaves two major capability gaps: the successful demonstration of a remote concept of operations for microreactors and a test bed suitable for said demonstration. Both gaps must be addressed in order to advance the remote concepts of nuclear operation and, more broadly, microreactors themselves from paper to reality. This paper aims to fill these gaps and describes a test bed that would support development and deployment of a remote concept of nuclear operations, initial experimental results from that test bed, and the application of the test bed and experimental results for a digital-twin-based remote concept of operations underdevelopment at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The platform chosen as a remote concept of nuclear operations test bed is the Single Primary Heat Extraction and Removal Emulator, known as SPHERE, located at INL. SPHERE is a small-scale non-nuclear test bed that emulates thermal behavior of a microreactor. The small-scale and non-nuclear nature of SHPERE limit safety concerns associated with remote operations while still providing the physical response representative of a microreactor. A network connection was added to SPHERE that enables remote-monitoring capability. This allows for real-time data streaming to networked workstations, data historians, and human-machine interfaces (HMIs). These are all critical components in a remote concept of operations, thus providing a robust development and demonstration platform. An initial experiment was performed using the SPHERE remote operations testbed. This included running a comprehensively instrumented SPHERE through a series of steady-state and transient operating scenarios in both normal and abnormal operating conditions, all while streaming live test data to a remote HMI and data warehouse. This initial experiment served three purposes: (1) characterizing the response of SPHERE, (2) demonstrating the remote connection to SPHERE, and (3) providing a baseline data set for development of a digital-twin-based remote concept of operations that is under development at INL.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing Near-Surface Moisture Increase during the Clear-Sky Afternoon-to-Evening Transition Using a Single-Column Model

The afternoon-to-evening transition is the period when the atmospheric boundary layer transitions from convective to stable conditions. One noticeable feature during this transition period is the rapid increase in water vapor concentration near the surface. However, the mechanism behind the increase in water vapor remains poorly understood. This study investigated the processes contributing to the water vapor increase and the impacts of the land cover and horizontal advection on the water vapor increase using a single-column model for the clear-sky condition. Numerical experiments were conducted on three cases at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Evapotranspiration was found to be the main moisture source to the water vapor increase, and that change of the near-surface vertical temperature gradient from negative to positive is the trigger for this increase during the afternoon-to-evening transition. This is because the near-surface turbulence divergence term decreases due to the change in the buoyancy profile caused by vertical temperature gradient change. The impact of horizontal advection on water vapor varies, and it can either lead to an increase or a decrease in water vapor, depending on the spatial horizontal water vapor gradient. This study also found that land cover can influence the timing of the water vapor increase since different land covers may have different Bowen ratios. Water vapor increases earlier under conditions with smaller Bowen ratios compared to those with larger values.

Atmosphere-land interaction↗
DOE OSTI2023

Knowledge-Informed Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting of Dynamical Engineered Systems

The high complexity and multiscale nature of many engineered systems—such as those in nuclear power plants—make representing and forecasting their dynamic behavior challenging. Physics-based models can be overly complex and computationally intractable, whereas machine learning (ML) tools are often data-hungry and prone to unphysical solutions. This study proposes a knowledge-informed ML-aided hybrid residual modeling approach that offers accurate and efficient time series forecasting for the operation of dynamical engineered systems. Hybrid residual modeling entails a baseline solution from domain knowledge and known physics expressions about the system dynamics integrated with an ML model to capture undiscovered information from the mismatch (i.e., residuals) between true states from measurements and baseline-predicted outputs. This study further quantifies the ML model uncertainty to provide trustworthy solutions. Real-time operational data from thermal-hydraulic flow loops of the cryogenic moderator system in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Spallation Neutron Source facility were used to demonstrate the potential of knowledge-informed uncertainty-aware ML in real-world applications. The state variables of the cryogenic helium loop were modeled with (1) first principles–based system identification (sysID), (2) long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, and (3) hybrid sysID (baseline) + LSTM (residual). The superior predictive capability of the sysID+LSTM model versus stand-alone sysID and LSTM is confirmed by average performance metrics and individual data points across different prediction horizons. By creating a robust representation of the underlying physical system, the widely applicable hybrid residual modeling approach will enable the future development of digital twins for performance prediction, prognostics, and operation control.

Zhao, Xingang↗