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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Coding Structures for Seated Row Simulation of an Active Controlled Vibration Isolation and Stabilization System for Astronaut’s Exercise Platform

Simulation for seated aerobic row exercise was a continued task to assist NASA in analyzing a one-dimensional vibration isolation and stabilization system for astronaut’s exercise platform. Feedback delay and signal noise were added to the simulation model. Simulation runs for this study were conducted in two software simulation tools, Trick and MBDyn, software simulation environments developed at the NASA Johnson Space Center. The exciter force in the simulation was calculated from motion capture of an exerciser during a seated aerobic row exercise. The simulation runs include passive control, active control using a Proportional, Integral, Derivative (PID) controller, and active control using a Piecewise Linear Integral Derivative (PWLID) controller. Output parameters include displacements of the exercise platform, the exerciser, and the counterweight; transmitted force to the wall of spacecraft; and actuator force to the platform. The simulation results showed excellent force reduction in the active controlled system compared to the passive controlled system, which resulted in less force reduction.

Simulation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiscale Prediction of Yarn Pullout Failure Mode in Unreinforced Textile Fabrics

Unreinforced woven fabrics have been implemented in a variety of high performance applications, including body armor, deployable structures, and as the reinforcement material in composites. Multiscale modeling techniques have significantly improved the capabilities of simulation-based tools to capture fabric mechanics efficiently and accurately, but often lack in their prediction of failure and require pairing with finite element analysis (FEA) software, limiting their application to the design of ‘fit-for-purpose’ materials. NASA’s Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT) is a standalone multiscale program that has been traditionally used in the analysis of reinforced composites materials. More recently, it has been amended to simulate unreinforced fabric behavior by allowing the geometric state of the tows to change with applied loading due to the lack of a reinforcement material, such as the matrix seen in composites. Previous work has shown the ability of NASMAT to capture nonlinear macroscale behavior by predicting geometric changes in the state of each subcell as a function of the applied loading and allowing each subcell in the analysis to rotate according to these predicted changes, as well as predict nonlinear behavior due to the fiber breakage failure mode. In this work, the capability of predicting the onset and propagation of failure in plain woven fabrics in NASMAT is presented for the yarn pullout failure mode, which occurs when a fabric is loaded at an off-axis angle relative to the warp of weft tow direction. Yarn pullout behavior is initiated by determining the applied load in which the shear resistance of the contact area between yarn families is overcome. When failure is initiated, yarn pullout is determined to have occurred when the applied displacement, calculated from global strain, exceeds the deformed position of a given contact points between yarn families, determined from pin-joint kinematics. Contact points where pullout has occurred contribute to a global damage parameter used to modify the homogenized stiffness of the fabric, resulting in nonlinear behavior observed at the macroscale. The off-axis loading behavior and yarn pullout failure theory have been developed and implemented into NASMAT such that users can simulate off-axis tensile behavior of fabrics in a single, standalone multiscale tool. Simulations are compared to uniaxial tensile tests at various off-axis angles to demonstrate the capability of the tool in its prediction of both the onset of failure at each off-axis angles and the stress-strain behavior as failure progresses.

Materials↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validating a Dynamic PWR Safety and Security Model?

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) are assessed for safety and security using separate models that cannot capture how an attacker's decisions and a plant's response unfold together in real time, leaving regulators and operators without a complete picture of true plant vulnerability. Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods treat adversarial events as fixed initiators with predetermined outcomes, and are structurally incapable of representing the time-dependent interplay between physical security events, safety system response, and operator mitigative actions. At Idaho National Laboratory (INL), I contributed to the development and validation of Modeling and Analysis for Safety and Security using the Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF). Where static PRA relies on event-tree logic that cannot evolve mid-scenario, MASS-DEF couples a time-dependent dynamic PRA tool EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams) with attack simulation software, allowing attacker behavior, plant system states, and operator actions to interact across time. My work focused on validating a general Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) model. I traced model logic against PWR plant to identified errors in logic and confirm accuracy. I then built and tested attack scenarios against a general PWR model to verify that the model produced expected outcomes across all logical pathways. I also contributed a section to a related technical paper applying the same EMRALD platform to radiation dose modeling. Results show that MASS-DEF can quantitatively demonstrate that many plants exceed their regulatory security thresholds. This demonstrated margin provides a technically defensible basis for reducing the number of guards without compromising regulatory compliance. Physical security costs represent roughly 10% of annual operating budgets, making such reductions directly meaningful to INL's mission of sustaining existing commercial NPPs. This internship strengthened my understanding of nuclear systems, probabilistic modeling, and technical writing, and has solidified my pursuit of a career at a national laboratory.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗
NASA NTRS2016

Stochastic-Strength-Based Damage Simulation Tool for Ceramic Matrix and Polymer Matrix Composite Structures

Stochastic-based, discrete-event progressive damage simulations of ceramic-matrix composite and polymer matrix composite material structures have been enabled through the development of a unique multiscale modeling tool. This effort involves coupling three independently developed software programs: (1) the Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC), (2) the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program (CARES/ Life), and (3) the Abaqus finite element analysis (FEA) program. MAC/GMC contributes multiscale modeling capabilities and micromechanics relations to determine stresses and deformations at the microscale of the composite material repeating unit cell (RUC). CARES/Life contributes statistical multiaxial failure criteria that can be applied to the individual brittle-material constituents of the RUC. Abaqus is used at the global scale to model the overall composite structure. An Abaqus user-defined material (UMAT) interface, referred to here as "FEAMAC/CARES," was developed that enables MAC/GMC and CARES/Life to operate seamlessly with the Abaqus FEA code. For each FEAMAC/CARES simulation trial, the stochastic nature of brittle material strength results in random, discrete damage events, which incrementally progress and lead to ultimate structural failure. This report describes the FEAMAC/CARES methodology and discusses examples that illustrate the performance of the tool. A comprehensive example problem, simulating the progressive damage of laminated ceramic matrix composites under various off-axis loading conditions and including a double notched tensile specimen geometry, is described in a separate report.

composite structures↗
DOE OSTI2022

BESTEST-GSR (Building Energy Simulation Test - Generation Simulation and Reporting) 2023 [SWR 18-23]

Building Energy Simulation Test (BESTEST) is an NREL-developed method to validate the qualitative performance of different whole building simulations engines relative to each other. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/legosti/old/6231.pdf The purpose of this repository is to generate BESTEST test case models, run simulations, and populate data for ASHRAE Standard 140 reporting spreadsheets for EnergyPlus® based whole building simulation tools. It was originally setup for 2014 version of Standard 140. In May of 2022 it was updated to the 2020 version of Standard 140. This update included updates and additions to existing test suites, the bulk of which was in Section 5.2 (Building Thermal Envelope and Fabric Load Tests). We did not add Section 5.5 Airside HVAC Equipment Performance, but we hope to add that later in 2022. At some point we also hope to add Section 5.2.4 ground modeling, which is currently excluded. Supported Tools The default IDF generation is based on the OpenStudio® CLI, but the workflow supports a 'Bring your own IDF' use case. Additionally, for non-EnergyPlus® based tools the post processing scripts can be used if simulation results are provided as a CSV file.The scripts on this repository should work on Mac, Windows, and Linux. Dependencies Install OpenStudio® 3.4.0 make sure command line can recognize the 'openstudio' command This includes EnergyPlus® 22.1 Install Ruby on your system if it isn't already setup. 2.7 is used for development but other versions may work Since OpenStudio has its own embedded Ruby, which is used for running measures, you don't necessarily have to use a version of Ruby supported by OpenStudio. Install RubyXL Ruby gem This is used to modify Microsoft Excel spreadsheets Install Parallel Ruby gem This allows the CLI to run simulations in parallel

Goldwasser, David↗
DOE OSTI2020

Energy and Exergy Analysis of Low-Global Warming Potential Refrigerants as Replacement for R410A in Two-Speed Heat Pumps for Cold Climates

Heat pumps (HPs) are being developed with a new emphasis on cold climates. To lower the environmental impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, alternate low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants must also replace the exclusive use of the refrigerant R410A, preferably without re-engineering the mechanical hardware. In this paper, we analyze the performance of four low-GWP alternative refrigerants (R32, R452B, R454B, and R466A) relative to the conventional R410A and draw conclusions on the relative performances for providing heating in cold climates based on the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) 210/240 standard for two-speed heat pumps. The simulations are carried using the Department of Energy, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (DOE/ORNL) Heat Pump Design Model (HPDM), a well-known heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) modeling and design tool in the public domain and the HVAC research and development community. The results of the simulation are further scrutinized using exergy analysis to identify sources of systemic inefficiency, the root cause of lost work. This rigorous approach provides an exhaustive analysis of alternate low-GWP refrigerants to replace R410A using available compressors and system components, without compromising performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1994

TDRS orbit determination by radio interferometry

In support of a NASA study on the application of radio interferometry to satellite orbit determination, MITRE developed a simulation tool for assessing interferometry tracking accuracy. The Orbit Determination Accuracy Estimator (ODAE) models the general batch maximum likelihood orbit determination algorithms of the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) with the group and phase delay measurements from radio interferometry. ODAE models the statistical properties of tracking error sources, including inherent observable imprecision, atmospheric delays, clock offsets, station location uncertainty, and measurement biases, and through Monte Carlo simulation, ODAE calculates the statistical properties of errors in the predicted satellites state vector. This paper presents results from ODAE application to orbit determination of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) by radio interferometry. Conclusions about optimal ground station locations for interferometric tracking of TDRS are presented, along with a discussion of operational advantages of radio interferometry.

Pavloff, Michael S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Capacitance of Carbon Nanotube/Graphene Composite Electrodes with [BMIM + ][BF$_4^–$]/Acetonitrile: Fixed Voltage Molecular Dynamics Simulations

The capacitance of nanoporous carbon electrode materials is dictated by the physical interactions with electrolyte ions and molecules at the accessible interior electrode surface. While significant progress has been made in designing and synthesizing carbon materials with well-defined and relatively homogeneous nanoporosity, the majority of materials remain heterogeneous, and the resulting properties reflect an average over this distribution. In this regard, computer simulations can be a valuable tool to predict or validate structure/property relationships by systematically investigating well-defined, model electrode morphologies. In this work, we utilize fixed-voltage molecular dynamics simulations to predict structure/capacitance relationships for five different model morphologies of carbon nanotube/graphene (CNT/G) composite electrodes with 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium tetrafluoroborate/acetonitrile electrolyte. The CNT/G electrode models are inspired by experimental “layer-by-layer” syntheses and strike a balance between realism and computational tractability. Comparison between different model electrode architectures elucidates important structure/property relationships. We find that CNT/graphene contact points serve as “hot spots” with significantly enhanced charge separation relative to the rest of the electrode. Furthermore, we demonstrate a specific nanoconfinement motif that provides substantial 3–4$\times$ enhancement of local capacitance, resulting in a ~40% increase of the total electrode differential capacitance. Because the accessible surface area of the model CNT/G electrodes is precisely determined, a comparison of per-area capacitance across systems is unambiguous. Our results thus complement a prior computational demonstration of capacitance enhancement in nanoconfinement while elucidating additional interaction motifs at CNT/G electrochemical interfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Matrix-Model Simulations Using Quantum Computing, Deep Learning, and Lattice Monte Carlo

Matrix quantum mechanics plays various important roles in theoretical physics, such as a holographic description of quantum black holes, and it underpins the only practical numerical approach to the study of complex high-dimensional supergravity theories. Understanding quantum black holes and the role of entanglement in a holographic setup is of paramount importance for the realization of a quantum theory of gravity. Moreover, a complete numerical understanding of the holographic duality and the emergence of geometric space-time features from microscopic degrees of freedom could pave the way for new discoveries in quantum information science. Euclidean lattice Monte Carlo simulations are the de facto numerical tool for understanding the spectrum of large matrix models and have been used to test the holographic duality. However, they are not tailored to extract dynamical properties or even the quantum wave function of the ground state of matrix models. Quantum computing and deep learning provide potentially useful approaches to study the dynamics of matrix quantum mechanics. If successful in the context of matrix models, these rapidly improving numerical techniques could become the new Swiss army knife of quantum gravity practitioners. In this paper, we perform the first systematic survey for quantum computing and deep-learning approaches to matrix quantum mechanics, comparing them to lattice Monte Carlo simulations. These provide baseline benchmarks before addressing more complicated problems. In particular, we test the performance of each method by calculating the low-energy spectrum.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2004

Computational studies of Ras and PI3K

Until recently, experimental techniques in molecular cell biology have been the primary means to investigate biological risk upon space radiation. However, computational modeling provides an alternative theoretical approach, which utilizes various computational tools to simulate proteins, nucleotides, and their interactions. In this study, we are focused on using molecular mechanics (MM) and molecular dynamics (MD) to study the mechanism of protein-protein binding and to estimate the binding free energy between proteins. Ras is a key element in a variety of cell processes, and its activation of phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K) is important for survival of transformed cells. Different computational approaches for this particular study are presented to calculate the solvation energies and binding free energies of H-Ras and PI3K. The goal of this study is to establish computational methods to investigate the roles of different proteins played in the cellular responses to space radiation, including modification of protein function through gene mutation, and to support the studies in molecular cell biology and theoretical kinetics models for our risk assessment project.

Ren, Lei↗
NASA NTRS2024

Digital Lunar Exploration Sites (DLES) Terrain Crafting

Humans will soon be returning to the surface of the Moon with NASA’s Artemis program. The Artemis program is an international collaboration that will consist of a complex series of space systems and missions to explore the lunar surface and pave the way for the future exploration of Mars. NASA and its partners rely heavily on simulation for lighting and navigation studies as well as training astronauts, flight controllers, and mission support staff. The NASA Exploration Systems Simulations (NExSyS) team in the Simulation and Graphics Branch (ER7) in the Engineering Directorate at NASA’s Johnson Space Center has built up many simulation products to support this effort, one of which is the Digital Lunar Exploration Sites (DLES). DLES is a collection of products used to simulate and render the lunar surface in a digital environment. We discussed and presented an overview of the DLES products at the 2022 IEEE Aerospace Conference in Big Sky, MT with a paper titled "Digital Lunar Exploration Sites". This “DLES Terrain Crafting” paper will expand on the information previously provided in “DLES” paper and dive deeper into the details of the terrain crafting process and the toolsets used to support this task. The best digital data currently available of the lunar surface is provided by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO). Its Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) achieves an impressive resolution of 5m per pixel at the Lunar South Pole (LSP) and can generate datasets covering a large continuous region near the LSP. There are a few additional methods, such as Shape from Shading which can infer higher resolution data (up to 1m per pixel) from the LRO Narrow Angle Camera (NAC) images. However, surface-based simulations require higher-resolution data, and this paper will discuss the process of enhancing the terrain to meet that need. The process begins with capturing statistical data of craters in the regions of interest using images provided by the LRO NAC. This data is then used to scatter artificial features which are not captured in the truth data, resulting in an enhanced DEM with a much higher resolution of 20cm per pixel. Many tools were built up to assist in the creation of these artificial Digital Elevation Models (DEM), which this paper will discuss in detail. DEMs themselves are a very powerful representation of a planetary surface, and many operations and tools can utilize the data they contain. This paper includes a description of the rendering of the lunar surface in a graphics engine, generation of contact patches to simulate tire to ground interaction, and ray tracing utilities to model Line of Sight (LOS) interactions with the terrain. This paper will also explore some new tool sets currently under development which aim to utilize Machine Learning (ML) to assist in the identification of craters from LRO NAC imagery. While this is not a novel idea, the NExSyS team is developing a unique approach which may result in more robust identification of crater characteristics.

Artemis↗
NASA NTRS2014

Engineering Risk Assessment of Space Thruster Challenge Problem

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center utilizes dynamic models with linked physics-of-failure analyses to produce quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions. This paper applies the ERA approach to the baseline and extended versions of the PSAM Space Thruster Challenge Problem, which investigates mission risk for a deep space ion propulsion system with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. The dynamic mission is modeled using a combination of discrete and continuous-time reliability elements within the commercially available GoldSim software. Loss-of-mission (LOM) probability results are generated via Monte Carlo sampling performed by the integrated model. Model convergence studies are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of integrated LOM results to the number of Monte Carlo trials. A deterministic risk model was also built for the three baseline and extended missions using the Ames Reliability Tool (ART), and results are compared to the simulation results to evaluate the relative importance of mission dynamics. The ART model did a reasonable job of matching the simulation models for the baseline case, while a hybrid approach using offline dynamic models was required for the extended missions. This study highlighted that state-of-the-art techniques can adequately adapt to a range of dynamic problems.

Assessment↗
NASA NTRS2008

Automatic Testcase Generation for Flight Software

The TacSat3 project is applying Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) technologies to an Air Force spacecraft for operational evaluation in space. The experiment will demonstrate the effectiveness and cost of ISHM and vehicle systems management (VSM) technologies through onboard operation for extended periods. We present two approaches to automatic testcase generation for ISHM: 1) A blackbox approach that views the system as a blackbox, and uses a grammar-based specification of the system's inputs to automatically generate *all* inputs that satisfy the specifications (up to prespecified limits); these inputs are then used to exercise the system. 2) A whitebox approach that performs analysis and testcase generation directly on a representation of the internal behaviour of the system under test. The enabling technologies for both these approaches are model checking and symbolic execution, as implemented in the Ames' Java PathFinder (JPF) tool suite. Model checking is an automated technique for software verification. Unlike simulation and testing which check only some of the system executions and therefore may miss errors, model checking exhaustively explores all possible executions. Symbolic execution evaluates programs with symbolic rather than concrete values and represents variable values as symbolic expressions. We are applying the blackbox approach to generating input scripts for the Spacecraft Command Language (SCL) from Interface and Control Systems. SCL is an embedded interpreter for controlling spacecraft systems. TacSat3 will be using SCL as the controller for its ISHM systems. We translated the SCL grammar into a program that outputs scripts conforming to the grammars. Running JPF on this program generates all legal input scripts up to a prespecified size. Script generation can also be targeted to specific parts of the grammar of interest to the developers. These scripts are then fed to the SCL Executive. ICS's in-house coverage tools will be run to measure code coverage. Because the scripts exercise all parts of the grammar, we expect them to provide high code coverage. This blackbox approach is suitable for systems for which we do not have access to the source code. We are applying whitebox test generation to the Spacecraft Health INference Engine (SHINE) that is part of the ISHM system. In TacSat3, SHINE will execute an on-board knowledge base for fault detection and diagnosis. SHINE converts its knowledge base into optimized C code which runs onboard TacSat3. SHINE can translate its rules into an intermediate representation (Java) suitable for analysis with JPF. JPF will analyze SHINE's Java output using symbolic execution, producing testcases that can provide either complete or directed coverage of the code. Automatically generated test suites can provide full code coverage and be quickly regenerated when code changes. Because our tools analyze executable code, they fully cover the delivered code, not just models of the code. This approach also provides a way to generate tests that exercise specific sections of code under specific preconditions. This capability gives us more focused testing of specific sections of code.

Bushnell, David Henry↗
DOE OSTI2020

Techno-Economic Modelling of Tidal Energy Converter Arrays in the Tacoma Narrows

Hydrokinetic tidal energy converter (TEC) technology is yet to become cost competitive with other renewable energy sources. Understanding the interaction between energy production and the costs incurred harvesting that energy may unlock the economic potential of this technology. Although hydrodynamic simulation of TEC arrays has matured over time, including demonstration of how small and large arrays affect the resource, integration of cost modelling is often limited. The advanced ocean energy array techno-economic modelling tool ‘DTOcean’ enables designers to calculate and improve the levelised cost of energy (LCOE) of an array through parametric simulation of the energy extraction, design of the electrical network, moorings and foundations, and simulation of the installation and lifetime operations and maintenance of the array. This work presents a verification of DTOcean’s ability to simulate the techno-economic performance of TEC arrays by reproducing the hypothetical RM1 reference model, a semi-analytical model of a TEC array based in the Tacoma Narrows of Washington state, U.S.A. It is demonstrated that DTOcean can produce a reasonable estimate to the LCOE predicted by the reference model, giving (in Euro cents per kiloWatt hour) 36.69 ¢/kWh against the reference model’s 34.612 ¢/kWh for 10 TECs, while for 50 TECs, DTOcean calculated 20.34 ¢/kWh compared to 17.34 ¢/kWh for the reference model.

Topper, Mathew B. R. (ORCID:0000000347324347)↗
DOE OSTI2023

FORCE Integration with DRAFT and IDAES

Integrated energy systems (IES) combine, in mutually beneficial ways, power from variable renewable energy sources and nuclear power plants (NPP) to produce multiple commodities and improve economic viability under uncertain market conditions. Technical and economic analysis of IES requires modeling of complex processes with software models having enough fidelity to capture real-world dynamics while still being capable of running using reasonable computing resources. The open-source Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite, developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), has enabled comprehensive modeling and simulation of IES. The capabilities within FORCE include grid portfolio optimization through the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) and the transient process model analysis library HYBRID, among others. Recent developments for the FORCE toolset have centered on strengthening the flexibility and modularity to link with external models and other available software to enhance IES simulations. Adding versatility to the FORCE toolset improves capability resulting in better techno-economic simulation of nuclear and IES components (both in potential higher fidelity and accuracy to expected performance after deployment). It also helps leverage existing work in the IES field and improve efficiency in national code development. This report focuses on two such endeavors: integration of the Dynamic Reliability Analysis Framework Tool (DRAFT) and the Design Integration and Synthesis Platform to Advance Tightly Coupled Hybrid Energy Systems (DISPATCHES) software packages into FORCE.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

HydroChrono: An Open-Source Hydrodynamics Package for Project Chrono

In this paper we present the development and verification of HydroChrono, a hydrodynamics package for the Project Chrono physics engine. This package includes the implementation of hydrodynamics equations, the added mass for multibody systems, the development of I/O functions as well as a Python API, and comparison against standard reference cases and other existing tools. HydroChrono provides a flexible, fully open-source solution for simulating wave energy converters (WECs), floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) platforms, and other hydrodynamic systems. Here we show, via comparisons with existing tools for benchmark verification cases, that HydroChrono accurately models hydrodynamic forces - making it a useful tool for the design and optimization of these systems. Additionally, the integration of HydroChrono with Project Chrono offers access to finite element modeling capabilities and high-fidelity modelling - with Chrono's existing coupling to CFD and SPH codes. This provides numerical modelers with a multifidelity simulation framework for designing and validating these systems. The development of HydroChrono provides a new, open-source solution for simulating hydrodynamic systems. Its compatibility with other simulation tools enables a more streamlined and efficient design process, advancing the field and providing new opportunities for innovation in this area.

BEM↗
NASA NTRS2021

Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)

The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6°C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.

Last Interglacial climate↗
DOE OSTI2020

Particle Sensitivity Analysis

We propose to develop a computational sensitivity analysis capability for Monte Carlo sampling-based particle simulation relevant to Aleph, Cheetah-MC, Empire, Emphasis, ITS, SPARTA, and LAMMPS codes. These software tools model plasmas, radiation transport, low-density fluids, and molecular motion. Our report demonstrates how adjoint optimization methods can be combined with Monte Carlo sampling-based adjoint particle simulation. Our goal is to develop a sensitivity analysis to drive robust design-based optimization for Monte Carlo sampling-based particle simulation - a currently unavailable capability.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗