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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing boundary condition and parametric uncertainty in numerical-weather-prediction-modeled, long-term offshore wind speed through machine learning and analog ensemble

To accurately plan and manage wind power plants, not only does the time-varying wind resource at the site of interest need to be assessed but also the uncertainty connected to this estimate. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at the mesoscale represent a valuable way to characterize the wind resource offshore, given the challenges connected with measuring hub-height wind speed. The boundary condition and parametric uncertainty associated with modeled wind speed is often estimated by running a model ensemble. However, creating an NWP ensemble of long-term wind resource data over a large region represents a computational challenge. Here, we propose two approaches to temporally extrapolate wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty using a more convenient setup in which a mesoscale ensemble is run over a short-term period (1 year), and only a single model covers the desired long-term period (20 year). We quantify hub-height wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty from the short-term model ensemble as its normalized across-ensemble standard deviation. Then, we develop and apply a gradient-boosting model and an analog ensemble approach to temporally extrapolate such uncertainty to the full 20-year period, for which only a single model run is available. As a test case, we consider offshore wind resource characterization in the California Outer Continental Shelf. Both of the proposed approaches provide accurate estimates of the long-term wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty across the region (R 2 >0.75), with the gradient-boosting model slightly outperforming the analog ensemble in terms of bias and centered root-mean-square error. At the three offshore wind energy lease areas in the region, we find a long-term median hourly uncertainty between 10 % and 14 % of the mean hub-height wind speed values. Finally, we assess the physical variability in the uncertainty estimates. In general, we find that the wind speed uncertainty increases closer to land. Also, neutral conditions have smaller uncertainty than the stable and unstable cases, and the modeled wind speed in winter has less boundary condition and parametric sensitivity than summer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

CORPSE model with litter decomposition parameters derived from the LIDET dataset

This is a version of the CORPSE model (Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere and Protection in the Soil Environment, Sulman et al. 2014) that uses litter decomposition parameters derived from a modified Monte Carlo simulation using the LIDET litter decomposition dataset (Long-term Intersite Decomposition Experiment Team, Harmon 2013). The code also includes the Baseline parameters, and the eight other best parameter sets identified in a modified Monte Carlo simulation. Related publication:Juice, S.M., Ridgeway, J.R., Hartman, M.D., Parton, W.J., Berardi, D.M., Sulman, B.N., Allen, K.E., & Brzostek, E.R. Reparameterizing litter decomposition using a simplified Monte Carlo method improves litter decay simulated by a microbial model and alters bioenergy soil carbon estimates. Description of files:The folder "Input Files" contains one folder for each LIDET site with data necessary to run the model. Note that "(site)" in the filenames below indicates where the LIDET site code appears (see Table 1 for site codes). Data streams include: CORPSE_full_spinup_litter.csv, CORPSE_full_spinup_rhizo.csv, CORPSE_full_spinup_bulk.csv, litterbag_init_100g_6spp.csv: initial C and N (kg C or N/m2) pool values for each soil layer, the litterbag_init_100_6spp.csv file is for the litterbag layer and is the same file for all sites. All initial C and N files have the same columns (Column - Description - Units) uFastC - Unprotected fast decomposing carbon - kg carbon/m2 uSlowC - Unprotected slow decomposing carbon - kg carbon/m2 uNecroC - Unprotected necromass carbon - kg carbon/m2 pFastC - Protected fast decomposing carbon - kg carbon/m2 pSlowC - Protected slow decomposing carbon - kg carbon/m2 pNecroC - Protected necromass carbon - kg carbon/m2 livingMicrobeC - Carbon in living microbial biomass - kg carbon/m2 uFastN - Unprotected fast decomposing nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 uSlowN - Unprotected slow decomposing nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 uNecroN - Unprotected necromass nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 pFastN - Protected fast decomposing nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 pSlowN - Protected slow decomposing nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 pNecroN - Protected necromass nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 inorganicN - Inorganic nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 CO2 - Carbon in carbon dioxide - kg carbon/m2 livingMicrobeN - Nitrogen in living microbial biomass - kg nitrogen/m2 soilT (site) DOY274start.csv: Average daily soil temperature (oC) interpolated from previously calculated monthly values used in DayCent LIDET simulations (Bonan et al., 2013). soilT (site) DOY274start.csv: Average daily soil volumetric water content (VWC) scalar interpolated from previously calculated monthly values used in DayCent LIDET simulations (Bonan et al., 2013). litter production.csv: Average daily litter production values for each site, data sources listed in Table S3 of related publication. litter (site) CN.csv: C:N ratio for each species from LIDET dataset (Table 2, Harmon 2013). (site).csv: Table indicating number of observations for each species decomposed at each site. Instructions: Save the model code ("CORPSE_LIDET.R") and "Input Files" folder in the same folder. Also make a folder for the model output (e.g., "results_Baseline") in the same folder. Set the working directory (setwd) in the model code to the folder with the files saved in step #1. Select the parameter set to use for the litter and litterbag compartments, comment out all other parameter sets. Run code. Output will be saved in the folder made in step 1. Output destination can be changed as necessary in code section called "Running the model." Table 1 LIDET sites and site codes used in model files. Site Code - Site AND - H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest BNZ - Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest BSF - Blodgett Research Forest CDR - Cedar Creek Natural History Area CPR - Central Plains Experimental Range HBR - Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest HFR - Harvard Forest JUN - Juneau KBS - Kellogg Biological Station KNZ - Konza Prairie Research Natural Area NWT - Niwot Ridge/Green Lakes Valley OLY - Olympic National Park OLY Conifer forest SEV - Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge SMR - Santa Margarita Ecological Reserve UFL - University of Florida VCR - Virginia Coast Reserve Table 2 LIDET species and species codes used in model files (6 common species). Species - Species Code Sugar maple (Acer saccharum) - ACSA Drypetes (Drypetes glauca) - DRGL Red pine (Pinus resinosa) - PIRE Chestnut oak (Quercus prinus) - QUPR Western redcedar (Thuja plicata) - THPL Wheat (Triticum aestivum) - TRAE References:Bonan, G. B., Hartman, M. D., Parton, W. J., & Wieder, W. R. (2013). Evaluating litter decomposition in earth system models with long-term litterbag experiments: an example using the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4). Global Change Biology, 19(3), 957-974. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12031 Harmon, M. (2013). LTER Intersite Fine Litter Decomposition Experiment (LIDET), 1990 to 2002. Long-Term Ecological Research. Forest Science Data Bank, Corvallis, OR. [Data set]. Accessed http://andlter.forestry.oregonstate.edu/data/abstract.aspx?dbcode=TD023. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/f35f56bea52d78b6a1ecf1952b4889c5. Sulman, B. N., Phillips, R. P., Oishi, A. C., Shevliakova, E., & Pacala, S. W. (2014). Microbe-driven turnover offsets mineral-mediated storage of soil carbon under elevated CO2. Nature Climate Change, 4, 1099 - 1102. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2436

Juice, Stephanie↗
NASA NTRS1972

Analyses of requirements for computer control and data processing experiment subsystems. Volume 2: ATM experiment S-056 image data processing system software development

The IDAPS (Image Data Processing System) is a user-oriented, computer-based, language and control system, which provides a framework or standard for implementing image data processing applications, simplifies set-up of image processing runs so that the system may be used without a working knowledge of computer programming or operation, streamlines operation of the image processing facility, and allows multiple applications to be run in sequence without operator interaction. The control system loads the operators, interprets the input, constructs the necessary parameters for each application, and cells the application. The overlay feature of the IBSYS loader (IBLDR) provides the means of running multiple operators which would otherwise overflow core storage.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1972

Five-centimeter diameter ion thruster development

All system components were tested for endurance and steady state and cyclic operation. The following results were obtained: acceleration system (electrostatic type), 3100 hours continuous running; acceleration system (translation type), 2026 hours continuous running; cathode-isolator-vaporizer assembly, 5000 hours continuous operation and 190 restart cycles with 1750 hours operation; mercury expulsion system, 5000 hours continuous running; and neutralizer, 5100 hours continuous operation. The results of component optimization studies such as neutralizer position, neutralizer keeper hole, and screen grid geometry are included. Extensive mapping of the magnet field within and immediately outside the thruster are shown. A technique of electroplating the molybdenum accelerator grid with copper to study erosion patterns is described. Results of tests being conducted to more fully understand the operation of the hollow cathode are also given. This type of 5-cm thruster will be space tested on the Communication Technology Satellite in 1975.

Weigand, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Optimal flash rate and duty cycle for flashing visual indicators.

This experiment examined the ability of observers to determine, as quickly as possible, whether a visual indicator was steadily on or flashing. Six flash rates (periods) were combined factorially with three duty cycles (on-off ratios) to define 18 ?types' of intermittent signals. Experimental sessions were divided into six runs of 100 trials, each run utilizing one of the six flash rates. On any given trial in a run, the probability of a steady signal occurring was 0.5 and the probability of a flashing signal occurring was 0.5. A different duty cycle was employed daily for each experimental session. In all, 400 trials were devoted to each of the flash rates at each duty cycle. Accuracy and latency of response were the dependent variables of interest. The results show that the observers view the light for an interval of time appropriate to the expected flash rate and duty cycle; whether they judge the light to be steady or intermittent depends upon whether the light is extinguished during the predetermined waiting period. Adoption of this temporal criterion delays responding in comparison to those tasks involving responses to light onset. The decision or response criteria held by the observers are also sensitive to the parameters of the flashing light: observers become increasingly willing to call a flashing light ?steady' as flash duration increases.

Markowitz, J.↗
NASA NTRS1972

An experimental and theoretical investigation of the liquefaction dynamics of a phase change material in a normal gravity environment

Experimental and theoretical investigations were undertaken to determine the role of gravity-induced free convection upon the liquefaction dynamics of a cylindrical paraffin slab under normal gravity conditions. The experimental equipment consisted of a test cell, a fluid-loop heating system, and a multipoint recorder. The test chamber was annular in shape with an effective radius of 1.585 cm and a length of 5.08 cm. The heating chamber was a 1.906 cm diameter tube going through the center of the test chamber, and connected to the fluid loop heating system. All experimental runs were made with the longitudinal axis of the test cell in the vertical direction to insure that convection was not a function of the angular axis of the cell. Ten melting runs were made at various hot wall temperatures. Also, two pure conduction solidification runs were made to determine an experimental latent heat of fusion.

Bain, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Development of large diameter carbon monofilament

A process for preparing large diameter carbon-boron monofilament was developed. The process involves chemical vapor depositing a carbon-boron alloy monofilament from a BCl3, CH4, and H2 gas mixture onto a carbon substrate. Amorphous alloys were formed when gaseous mixtures containing greater than 20 percent methane (80 percent BCl3) were used. The longest uninterrupted lengths of carbon-boron monofilament were produced using a CH4/BCl3 gas ratio of 2.34. It was found that the properties of the carbon-boron alloy monofilament improved when the carbon substrate was precleaned in chlorine. The highest strength monofilament was attained when a CH4/BCl3 gas volume ratio of 0.44 was 28 million N/sq cm (40 million psi). While the highest strengths were attained in this run, the 0.44 gas ratio and other CH4/BCl3 ratios less than 2.34 would not yield long runs. Runs using these ratios were usually terminated because of a break in the monofilament within the reactor. It is felt better process control could probably be achieved by varying the amount of hydrogen; the BCl3/H2 ratio was kept constant in these studies.

Jacob, B.↗
NASA NTRS1973

A low speed wind tunnel test of the 0.050 scale NASA-JSC shuttle orbiter 089B to determine the longitudinal and lateral directional effects of control surface modifications

Wind tunnel tests to determine the longitudinal and lateral-directional effects of control surface modifications on the space shuttle orbiter aerodynamic characteristics are discussed. A total of 103 data runs were made which consisted of pitch runs through a range of zero to 28 degrees at a zero yaw angle and yaw runs from minus 6 to plus 6 degrees at various fixed pitch angles. At each data point, data from an internal strain gage balance was sampled with the digital data system. Also recorded were the model angles of pitch and yaw and the test section static pressure. Results are presented in the form of tabulated aerodynamic coefficient data about the model reference center.

Oldenbuttel, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Hydrocarbon polymeric binder for advanced solid propellant

A series of DEAB initiated isoprene polymerizations were run in the 5-gallon stirred autoclave reactor. Polymerization run parameters such as initiator concentration and feed rate were correlated with the molecular weight to provide a basis for molecular weight control in future runs. Synthetic methods were developed for the preparation of n-1,3-alkadienes. By these methods, 1,3-nonadiene was polymerized using DEAB initiator to give an ester-telechelic polynonadiene. This was subsequently hydrogenated with copper chromite catalyst to give a hydroxyl terminated saturated liquid hydrocarbon prepolymer having greatly improved viscosity characteristics and a Tg 18 degrees lower than that of the hydrogenated polyisoprenes. The hydroxyl-telechelic saturated polymers prepared by the hydrogenolysis of ester-telechelic polyisoprene were reached with diisocyanates under conditions favoring linear chain extension gel permeation chromatography was used to monitor this condensation polymerization. Fractions having molecular weights above one million were produced.

Potts, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Water and processes of degradation in the Martian landscape

It is shown that erosion has been active on Mars so that many of the surface landforms are products of degradation. Unlike earth, erosion has not been a universal process, but one areally restricted and intermittently active so that a landscape is the product of one or two cycles of erosion and large areas of essentially undisturbed primitive terrain; running water has been the principal agent of degradation. Many features on Mars are most easily explained by assuming running surface water at some time in the past; for a few features, running water is the only possible explanation.

Milton, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Wind tunnel test of the 0.015-scale Rockwell International space shuttle vehicle orbiter in the Ames 6 by 6 foot supersonic wind tunnel

Experimental investigations were performed in a 6- by 6-Foot Supersonic wind tunnel on a 0.015-scale model of the Rockwell International space shuttle vehicle (SSV) 2A orbiter. The purpose of the test was to investigate the longitudinal and lateral-directional characteristics of the vehicle. In addition, hinge moments were measured on the rudder and elevons. Buffet onset was investigated using wing trailing edge pressures and a strain gauge instrumented panel mounted in the wing. The model was tested through a Mach range from 0.6 to 2.0 at a constant unit Reynolds number of 2.5 million. Pitch runs were made at angles of attack from minus 2 deg to +26 deg with beta = 0 deg and 5 deg; yaw runs were made in the range from minus 5 deg to 10 deg of sideslip at angles of attack of 0 deg and 10 deg. Static pressures were measured at the fuselage base and the trailing edges of the wing and rudder. Boundary layer transition was fixed for some runs using distributed roughness strips.

Milam, M. D.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Convergence properties of simple genetic algorithms

The essential parameters determining the behaviour of genetic algorithms were investigated. Computer runs were made while systematically varying the parameter values. Results based on the progress curves obtained from these runs are presented along with results based on the variability of the population as the run progresses.

Bethke, A. D.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Development of technology for modeling of a 1/8-scale dynamic model of the shuttle Solid Rocket Booster (SRB)

A NASTRAN analysis of the solid rocket booster (SRB) substructure of the space shuttle 1/8-scale structural dynamics model. The NASTRAN finite element modeling capability was first used to formulate a model of a cylinder 10 in. radius by a 200 in. length to investigate the accuracy and adequacy of the proposed grid point spacing. Results were compared with a shell analysis and demonstrated relatively accurate results for NASTRAN for the lower modes, which were of primary interest. A finite element model of the full SRB was then formed using CQUAD2 plate elements containing membrane and bending stiffness and CBAR offset bar elements to represent the longerons and frames. Three layers of three-dimensional CHEXAI elements were used to model the propellant. This model, consisting of 4000 degrees of freedom (DOF) initially, was reduced to 176 DOF using Guyan reduction. The model was then submitted for complex Eigenvalue analysis. After experiencing considerable difficulty with attempts to run the complete model, it was split into two substructres. These were run separately and combined into a single 116 degree of freedom A set which was successfully run. Results are reported.

Levy, A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Umbral oscillations and penumbral waves in H alpha

Examples are presented of umbral oscillations observed on Big Bear H-alpha filtergram movies, and the relation between umbral oscillations and running penumbral waves occurring in the same sunspot is investigated. Umbral oscillations near the center of the umbra are probably physically independent of the penumbral waves because the period of these umbral oscillations (150 sec) is shorter than the penumbral wave period (270 sec), but not a harmonic. Dark puffs emerge from the edge of the umbra and move outward across the penumbra, and have the same period as the running penumbral waves. These dark puffs are interpreted to be the extension of chromospheric umbral oscillations at the edge of the umbra. It is suggested that the dark puffs and the running penumbral waves have a common source: photospheric oscillations just inside the umbra.

Moore, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Surface friction of rock in terrestrial and simulated lunar environments

The conventional probe-on-the rotating-disk concept was used to determine the surface friction in mineral probe/specimen interfaces. Nine rocks or minerals and two stainless steels were tested in both new (NT) and same track (ST) tests under three different pressure environments-atmospheric, UHV, and dry nitrogen. Each environment was further subdivided into two testing conditions, that is, ambient and elevated (135 C) temperatures. In NT tests, friction was the lowest in an atmospheric pressure condition for all rock types and increased to the largest in UHV ambient condition except for pyroxene and stainless steel. Friction values measured in dry nitrogen ambient condition lie between the two extremes. Heating tends to increase friction in atmospheric and dry nitrogen environment but decreases in UHV environment with the exception of stainless steel, basalt, and pyroxene. In ST tests, friction was the lowest in the first run and increased in subsequent runs except for stainless steel where the reverse was true. The increases leveled off after a few runs ranging from the second to the seventh depending on rock types.

Roepke, W. W.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Performance, emissions, and physical characteristics of a rotating combustion aircraft engine

The RC2-75, a liquid cooled two chamber rotary combustion engine (Wankel type), designed for aircraft use, was tested and representative baseline (212 KW, 285 BHP) performance and emissions characteristics established. The testing included running fuel/air mixture control curves and varied ignition timing to permit selection of desirable and practical settings for running wide open throttle curves, propeller load curves, variable manifold pressure curves covering cruise conditions, and EPA cycle operating points. Performance and emissions data were recorded for all of the points run. In addition to the test data, information required to characterize the engine and evaluate its performance in aircraft use is provided over a range from one half to twice its present power. The exhaust emissions results are compared to the 1980 EPA requirements. Standard day take-off brake specific fuel consumption is 356 g/KW-HR (.585 lb/BHP-HR) for the configuration tested.

Berkowitz, M.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Outer planet probe engineering model thermal vacuum test

A thermal vacuum test was performed on the engineering model of the outer planets atmospheric entry probe. Steady state runs at three simulated radioisotope heating unit loads and one transient run simulating the pre-entry power profile were made to determine the thermal characteristics of the engineering model. An analytic simulation of the model was correlated to the test data. Several steady state and one transient run were made with the model attached to the spacecraft adapter to determine the thermal interface between the model and the adapter.

Grote, M. G.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Test of Landsat-based urban hydrologic modeling

A description is presented of the Fourmile Run Study which has been conducted to evaluate Landsat remote sensing as a method of defining input parameters required by urban hydrologic planning models. The evaluation was a part of water resource planning investigations concerning the Fourmile Run Watershed. The investigations involved an examination of the relationship between urban development and flooding for the Fourmile Run Basin. The study indicates that Landsat data provide a suitable source of land cover data for investigations conducted at the planning level. An estimation of the percentage of impervious area on the basis of Landsat data is less expensive than a use of aerial photos in planning studies. Only limited success could be achieved when Landsat data were used for smaller areal units.

Jackson, T. J.↗