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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

Optimizing Distributed Training on Frontier for Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable success as foundational models, benefiting various downstream applications through fine-tuning. Loss scaling studies have demonstrated the superior performance of larger LLMs compared to their smaller counterparts. Nevertheless, training LLMs with billions of parameters poses significant challenges and requires considerable computational resources. For example, training a one trillion parameter GPT-style model on 20 trillion tokens requires a staggering 120 million exaflops. This research explores efficient distributed training strategies to extract this computation from Frontier, the world's first exascale supercomputer. We enable and investigate various model and data parallel training techniques, such as tensor parallelism, pipeline parallelism, and sharded data parallelism, to facilitate training a trillion-parameter model on Frontier. We empirically assess these techniques and their associated parameters to determine their impact on memory footprint, communication latency, and GPU's computational efficiency. We analyze the complex interplay among these techniques and find a strategy to combine them to achieve high throughput through hyperparameter tuning. We have identified efficient strategies for training large LLMs of varying sizes through empirical analysis and hyperparameter tuning. For 22 Billion, 175 Billion, and 1 Trillion parameters, we achieved GPU throughputs of 38.38%, 36.14%, and 31.96%, respectively. For the training of the 175 Billion parameter model and the 1 Trillion parameter model, we achieved 100% weak scaling efficiency on 1024 and 3072 Mi250X GPUs, respectively. We also achieved strong scaling efficiencies of 89% and 87% for these two models. We trained these models only tens of iterations instead of training till completion.

Yin, Junqi↗

Format for Interchange and Display of 3D Terrain Data

Visible Scalable Terrain (ViSTa) is a software format for production, interchange, and display of three-dimensional (3D) terrain data acquired by stereoscopic cameras of robotic vision systems. ViSTa is designed to support scalability of data, accuracy of displayed terrain images, and optimal utilization of computational resources. In a ViSTa file, an area of terrain is represented, at one or more levels of detail, by coordinates of isolated points and/or vertices of triangles derived from a texture map that, in turn, is derived from original terrain images. Unlike prior terrain-image software formats, ViSTa includes provisions to ensure accuracy of texture coordinates. Whereas many such formats are based on 2.5-dimensional terrain models and impose additional regularity constraints on data, ViSTa is based on a 3D model without regularity constraints. Whereas many prior formats require external data for specifying image-data coordinate systems, ViSTa provides for the inclusion of coordinate-system data within data files. ViSTa admits highspeed loading and display within a Java program. ViSTa is designed to minimize file sizes and maximize compressibility and to support straightforward reduction of resolution to reduce file size for Internet-based distribution.

Backes, Paul↗

BigNeuron: a resource to benchmark and predict performance of algorithms for automated tracing of neurons in light microscopy datasets

BigNeuron is an open community bench-testing platform with the goal of setting open standards for accurate and fast automatic neuron tracing. We gathered a diverse set of image volumes across several species that is representative of the data obtained in many neuroscience laboratories interested in neuron tracing. Here, we report generated gold standard manual annotations for a subset of the available imaging datasets and quantified tracing quality for 35 automatic tracing algorithms. The goal of generating such a hand-curated diverse dataset is to advance the development of tracing algorithms and enable generalizable benchmarking. Together with image quality features, we pooled the data in an interactive web application that enables users and developers to perform principal component analysis, t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding, correlation and clustering, visualization of imaging and tracing data, and benchmarking of automatic tracing algorithms in user-defined data subsets. The image quality metrics explain most of the variance in the data, followed by neuromorphological features related to neuron size. Furthermore, we observed that diverse algorithms can provide complementary information to obtain accurate results and developed a method to iteratively combine methods and generate consensus reconstructions. The consensus trees obtained provide estimates of the neuron structure ground truth that typically outperform single algorithms in noisy datasets. However, specific algorithms may outperform the consensus tree strategy in specific imaging conditions. Finally, to aid users in predicting the most accurate automatic tracing results without manual annotations for comparison, we used support vector machine regression to predict reconstruction quality given an image volume and a set of automatic tracings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An image classification deep-learning algorithm for shrapnel detection from ultrasound images

Ultrasound imaging is essential for non-invasively diagnosing injuries where advanced diagnostics may not be possible. However, image interpretation remains a challenge as proper expertise may not be available. In response, artificial intelligence algorithms are being investigated to automate image analysis and diagnosis. Here, we highlight an image classification convolutional neural network for detecting shrapnel in ultrasound images. As an initial application, different shrapnel types and sizes were embedded first in a tissue mimicking phantom and then in swine thigh tissue. The algorithm architecture was optimized stepwise by minimizing validation loss and maximizing F1 score. The final algorithm design trained on tissue phantom image sets had an F1 score of 0.95 and an area under the ROC curve of 0.95. It maintained higher than a 90% accuracy for each of 8 shrapnel types. When trained only on swine image sets, the optimized algorithm format had even higher metrics: F1 and area under the ROC curve of 0.99. Overall, the algorithm developed resulted in strong classification accuracy for both the tissue phantom and animal tissue. This framework can be applied to other trauma relevant imaging applications such as internal bleeding to further simplify trauma medicine when resources and image interpretation are scarce.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Chip-on-Board Technology 1996 Year-end Report (Design, Manufacturing, and Reliability Study)

The major impetus for flight qualifying Chip-On-Board (COB) packaging technology is the shift in emphasis for space missions to smaller, better, and cheaper spacecraft and satellites resulting from the NASA New Millenium initiative and similar requirements in DoD-sponsored programs. The most important benefit that can potentially be derived from miniaturizing spacecraft and satellites is the significant cost saving realizable if a smaller launch vehicle may be employed. Besides the program cost saving, there are several other advantages to building COB-based space hardware. First, once a well-controlled process is established, COB can be low cost compared to standard Multi-Chip Module (MCM) technology. This cost competitiveness is regarded as a result of the generally greater availability and lower cost of Known Good Die (KGD). Coupled with the elimination of the first level of packaging (chip package), compact, high-density circuit boards can be realized with Printed Wiring Boards (PWB) that can now be made with ever-decreasing feature size in line width and via hole. Since the COB packaging technique in this study is based mainly on populating bare dice on a suitable multi-layer laminate substrate which is not hermetically sealed, die coating for protection from the environment is required. In recent years, significant improvements have been made in die coating materials which further enhance the appeal of COB. Hysol epoxies, silicone, parylene and silicon nitride are desirable because of their compatible Thermal Coefficient of Expansion (TCE) and good moisture resistant capability. These die coating materials have all been used in the space and other industries with varying degrees of success. COB technology, specifically siliconnitride coated hardware, has been flown by Lockheed on the Polar satellite. In addition, DARPA has invested a substantial amount of resources on MCM and COB-related activities recently. With COB on the verge of becoming a dominant player in DoD programs, DARPA is increasing its support of the availability of KGDs which will help decrease their cost. Aside from the various major developments and trends in the space and defense industries that are favorable to the acceptance and widespread use of'COB packaging technology, implementing COB can be appealing in other aspects. Since the interconnection interface is usually the weak link in a system, the overall circuit or system reliability may actually be improved because of the elimination of a level of interconnect/packaging at the chip. With COB, mixing packaging technologies is possible. Because some devices are only available in commercial plastic packages, populating a multi-layer laminate substrate with both bare dice and plastic-package parts is inevitable. Another attractive feature of COB is that re-workability is possible if die coating is applied only on the die top. This method allows local replacement of individual dice that were found to be defective instead of replacing an entire board. In terms of thermal management, unpackaged devices offer a shorter thermal resistance path than their packaged counterparts thereby improving thermal sinking and heat removal from the parts.

Le, Binh Q.↗

Design of Experiments for Dynamic Test Runs in Solvent-Based CO 2 Capture Pilot Plants

Test runs in the pilot plants consume significant resources, and therefore, the learning from test runs should be maximized. Test runs conducted in the pilot plants are often steady state. It takes several hours for reaching steady-state in the pilot plants, and thus, the duration of the test runs needs to be long even for collecting few steady-state data points. On the other hand, a large number of measurements can be collected through dynamic test runs in a short span of time. This paper presents a systematic design of dynamic experiments (DoDEs) for identifiability of model parameters, which is achieved by persistently exciting the inputs signals. A pseudorandom binary sequence (PRBS) is designed as the input signal for DoDE due to its efficiency in obtaining sufficient spectral content. However, due to the long sequence size of the PRBS signal, a Schroeder-phase input signal, which is a multisine signal, is also designed. Tests for both types of signals are run in the Pilot Solvent Test Unit (PSTU) at the National Carbon Capture Center in Wilsonville, Alabama. The transient data are used to solve dynamic data reconciliation and parameter estimation problem. The estimated parameters are found to be not only superior to those estimated from using data collected from hundreds of steady-state test runs in a nonreactive (air–water) system, but the parameters could be estimated by using the dynamic data collected for about 24 h from the pilot plant for the MEA-H 2 O–CO 2 system.

CO2 capture↗

NWPEsSe: an Adaptive-Learning Global Optimization Algorithm for Nanosized Cluster Systems

Global optimization constitutes an important and fundamental problem in theoretical studies in many chemical fields, such as catalysis, materials or separations problems. In this paper, a novel algorithm has been developed for the global optimization of large systems including neat and ligated clusters in gas phase, and supported clusters in periodic boundary conditions. The method is based on an updated artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm method, that allows for adaptive-learning during the search process. The new algorithm is tested against four classes of systems of diverse chemical nature: gas phase Au_55, ligated Au_8^(2+), Au_8 supported on graphene oxide and defected rutile, and a large cluster assembly ?[Co?_6 Te_8 (PEt_3 )_6][C_60 ]_n, with sizes ranging between 1 to 3 nm and containing up to 1300 atoms. Reliable global minima (GMs) are obtained for all cases, either confirming published data or reporting new lower energy structures. The algorithm and interface to other codes in the form of an independent program, Northwest Potential Energy Search Engine (NWPEsSe), is freely available and it provides a powerful and efficient approach for global optimization of nanosized cluster systems. The work described in this publication was performed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), which is operated by Battelle for the United States Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract DE-AC05-76RL0180. J. Z. and V.-A. G. acknowledge support from DOE, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sci-ences, Chemical, Geological and Biological Sciences Division and computing resources from PNNL’s Research Computing Facility and the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center.

Zhang, Jun↗

GC13I-0857: Designing a Frost Forecasting Service for Small Scale Tea Farmers in East Africa

Kenya is the third largest tea exporter in the world, producing 10% of the world's black tea. Sixty percent of this production occurs largely by small scale tea holders, with an average farm size of 1.04 acres, and an annual net income of $1,075. According to a recent evaluation, a typical frost event in the tea growing region causes about $200 dollars in losses which can be catastrophic for a small holder farm. A 72-hour frost forecast would provide these small-scale tea farmers with enough notice to reduce losses by approximately 80 USD annually. With this knowledge, SERVIR, a joint NASA-USAID initiative that brings Earth observations for improved decision making in developing countries, sought to design a frost monitoring and forecasting service that would provide farmers with enough lead time to react to and protect against a forecasted frost occurrence on their farm. SERVIR Eastern and Southern Africa, through its implementing partner, the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD), designed a service that included multiple stakeholder engagement events whereby stakeholders from the tea industry value chain were invited to share their experiences so that the exact needs and flow of information could be identified. This unique event allowed enabled the design of a service that fit the specifications of the stakeholders. The monitoring service component uses the MODIS Land Surface Temperature product to identify frost occurrences in near-real time. The prediction component, currently under testing, uses the 2-m air temperature, relative humidity, and 10-m wind speed from a series of high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model runs over eastern Kenya as inputs into a frost prediction algorithm. Accuracy and sensitivity of the algorithm is being assessed with observations collected from the farmers using a smart phone app developed specifically to report frost occurrences, and from data shared through our partner network developed at the stakeholder engagement meeting. This presentation will illustrate the efficacy of our frost forecasting algorithm, and a way forward for incorporating these forecasts in a meaningful way to the key decision makers - the small-scale farmers of East Africa.

frost↗

Generation of a chromosome-scale genome assembly of the insect-repellent terpenoid-producing Lamiaceae species, Callicarpa americana

Plants exhibit wide chemical diversity due to the production of specialized metabolites that function as pollinator attractants, defensive compounds, and signaling molecules. Lamiaceae (mints) are known for their chemodiversity and have been cultivated for use as culinary herbs, as well as sources of insect repellents, health-promoting compounds, and fragrance. We report the chromosome-scale genome assembly of Callicarpa americana L. (American beautyberry), a species within the early-diverging Callicarpoideae clade of Lamiaceae, known for its metallic purple fruits and use as an insect repellent due to its production of terpenoids. Using long-read sequencing and Hi-C scaffolding, we generated a 506.1-Mb assembly spanning 17 pseudomolecules with N50 contig and N50 scaffold sizes of 7.5 and 29.0 Mb, respectively. In all, 32,164 genes were annotated, including 53 candidate terpene synthases and 47 putative clusters of specialized metabolite biosynthetic pathways. Our analyses revealed 3 putative whole-genome duplication events, which, together with local tandem duplications, contributed to gene family expansion of terpene synthases. Kolavenyl diphosphate is a gateway to many of the bioactive terpenoids in C. americana; experimental validation confirmed that CamTPS2 encodes kolavenyl diphosphate synthase. Syntenic analyses with Tectona grandis L. f. (teak), a member of the Tectonoideae clade of Lamiaceae known for exceptionally strong wood resistant to insects, revealed 963 collinear blocks and 21,297 C. americana syntelogs. Access to the C. americana genome provides a road map for rapid discovery of genes encoding plant-derived agrichemicals and a key resource for understanding the evolution of chemical diversity in Lamiaceae.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Streaming Analytics for Anomaly Detection in Large-Scale Data

Anomalous behavior poses serious risks to assured performance and reliability of complex, high-consequence systems. For spaceborne assets and their state-of-health (SOH) telemetry, the challenges of high-dimensional data of varying data types are compounded by computational limitations from size, weight, and power (SWaP) constraints as well as data availability. Automated anomaly detection methods tend to perform poorly under these constraints, while current operational approaches can introduce delays in response time due to the manual, retrospective processes for understanding system failures. As a result, presently deployed space systems, and those deployed in the near future, face situations where mission operations might be delayed or only be able to operate under degraded capabilities. Here, we examine a near-term lightweight solution that provides real-time detection capabilities for rare events and assess state-of-the-art anomaly detection techniques against real SOH telemetry from space platforms. This report describes our methodology and research, which could support more automated capabilities for comprehensive space operations as well as for other resource-constrained edge applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Design of a lunar oxygen production plant

To achieve permanent human presence and activity on the moon, oxygen is required for both life support and propulsion. Lunar oxygen production using resources existing on the moon will reduce or eliminate the need to transport liquid oxygen from earth. In addition, the co-products of oxygen production will provide metals, structural ceramics, and other volatile compounds. This will enable development of even greater self-sufficiency as the lunar outpost evolves. Ilmenite is the most abundant metal-oxide mineral in the lunar regolith. A process involving the reaction of ilmenite with hydrogen at 1000 C to produce water, followed by the electrolysis of this water to provide oxygen and recycle the hydrogen has been explored. The objective of this 1990 Summer Faculty Project was to design a lunar oxygen-production plant to provide 5 metric tons of liquid oxygen per year from lunar soil. The results of this study describe the size and mass of the equipment, the power needs, feedstock quantity and the engineering details of the plant.

Radhakrishnan, Ramalingam↗

Task scheduling in dataflow computer architectures

Dataflow computers provide a platform for the solution of a large class of computational problems, which includes digital signal processing and image processing. Many typical applications are represented by a set of tasks which can be repetitively executed in parallel as specified by an associated dataflow graph. Research in this area aims to model these architectures, develop scheduling procedures, and predict the transient and steady state performance. Researchers at NASA have created a model and developed associated software tools which are capable of analyzing a dataflow graph and predicting its runtime performance under various resource and timing constraints. These models and tools were extended and used in this work. Experiments using these tools revealed certain properties of such graphs that require further study. Specifically, the transient behavior at the beginning of the execution of a graph can have a significant effect on the steady state performance. Transformation and retiming of the application algorithm and its initial conditions can produce a different transient behavior and consequently different steady state performance. The effect of such transformations on the resource requirements or under resource constraints requires extensive study. Task scheduling to obtain maximum performance (based on user-defined criteria), or to satisfy a set of resource constraints, can also be significantly affected by a transformation of the application algorithm. Since task scheduling is performed by heuristic algorithms, further research is needed to determine if new scheduling heuristics can be developed that can exploit such transformations. This work has provided the initial development for further long-term research efforts. A simulation tool was completed to provide insight into the transient and steady state execution of a dataflow graph. A set of scheduling algorithms was completed which can operate in conjunction with the modeling and performance tools previously developed. Initial studies on the performance of these algorithms were done to examine the effects of application algorithm transformations as measured by such quantities as number of processors, time between outputs, time between input and output, communication time, and memory size.

Katsinis, Constantine↗

Comparison of Artemis 2 and Artemis 5 Model Outcomes Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. This presentation will seek to compare IMPACT’s computational results upon potential complex space medical conditions (e.g., sprain/strain back or sleep disturbance) using IMPACT’s risk metrics and the associated optimized medical sets/kits between two Artemis missions: single segment Artemis 2 and multi-segmented Artemis 5. OVERVIEW By identifying potential medical conditions in space using input criteria such as crew quantity and composition, certain crew physical characteristics, mission duration and mission activities, IMPACT can produce analyses on the type of medical resources and capabilities needed to produce an optimized medical set/kit to address those medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. IMPACT’s risk metrics include loss of crew life (LOCL) – a measure of crew mortality due to medical conditions in space, return to definitive care (RTDC) – the need to perform crew evacuation, and task time lost (TTL) – a measure of the inability to perform activities due to crew disability. These risk metrics are applied to every medical condition identified by IMPACT’s computation analyses for every segment of the mission. Medical sets/kits are optimized to address these medical conditions but must fit within the stated Artemis Design Reference Mission (DRM) request for mass and volume physical size constraints. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION Using two Artemis missions, Artemis 2 and Artemis 5, IMPACT will provide the analyses for comparison of medical set/kit contents based upon mass and/or volume requirements and identify the at-risk medical conditions within both missions. This paper serves as an initial exploration of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk calculations between two crewed Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

probabilistic risk assessment↗

Smart connected worker edge platform for smart manufacturing: Part 1—Architecture and platform design

Abstract The challenge of sustainably producing goods and services for healthy living on a healthy planet requires simultaneous consideration of economic, societal, and environmental dimensions in manufacturing. Enabling technology for data driven manufacturing paradigms like Smart Manufacturing (a.k.a. Industry 4.0) serve as the technological backbone from which sustainable approaches to manufacturing can be implemented. Unfortunately, these technologies are typically associated with broader and deeper factory automation that is often too expensive and complex for the small and medium sized manufacturers (SMMs) that comprise the majority of manufacturing business in the USA and for whom their most valuable asset are the people whose jobs automation while replace. This paper describes an edge intelligent platform to integrate internet‐of‐things technologies with computing hardware, software, computational workflows for machine learning, and data ingestion, enabling SMMs to transition into smart manufacturing paradigms by leveraging the intelligence of their people. The platform leverages consumer grade electronics and sensors (affordable and portable), customized software with open source software packages (accessible), and existing communication network infrastructures (scalable). The software systems are implemented via Kubernetes orchestration of Docker containerization to ensure scalability and programmability. The platform is adaptive via computational workflow engines that produce information from data by processing with low‐cost edge computing devices while efficiently accessing resources of cloud servers as needed. The proposed edge platform connects workers to technological resources that provide computational intelligence (i.e., silicon‐based sensing and computation for data collection and contextualization) to enable decision making at the edge of advanced manufacturing.

Kim, Yoon G.↗

Revenue prediction for integrated renewable energy and energy storage system using machine learning techniques

Revenue estimation for integrated renewable energy and energy storage systems is important to support plant owners or operators’ decisions in battery sizing selection that leads to maximized financial performances. A common approach to optimizing revenues of a hybrid hydro and energy storage system is using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). Although MILP models can provide accurate production cost estimations, they are typically very computationally expensive. To provide a fast yet accurate first-step information to hydropower plant owners or operators who consider integrating energy storage systems, we propose an innovative approach to predicting optimal revenues of an integrated energy generation and storage system. In this study, we examined the performance of two prediction techniques: Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and machine learning (ML) models developed based on artificial neural networks (ANN). Predictive equations and models are generated based on optimized solutions from a market participation optimization model, the Conventional Hydropower Energy and Environmental Resource System (CHEERS) model. The two predicting techniques reduce the computational time to evaluate annual revenue for one set of battery configurations from 3 h to 1 to 4 min per run while also being implementable with significantly less data. The model validation prediction errors of developed GAMs and ML models are generally below 5%; for model testing predictions, the ML models consistently outperform the regression equations in terms of root mean square errors. This new approach allows plant owners, operators, or potential investors to quickly access multiple battery configurations under different energy generation and market scenarios. This new revenue prediction method will therefore help reduce the barriers, and thereby promoting the deployment of battery hybridization with existing renewable energy sources.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Spectroscopy-based isotopic (δ 13 C) analysis for high spatial resolution of carbon exchange in the rhizosphere

The rhizosphere is a highly dynamic zone bridging plant roots with needed nutrient resources in soil. While the rhizosphere may be small, it has a disproportionally large impact on plant success and biomass production. A suite of rhizosphere-hosted microbial and geochemical interactions facilitate nutrient acquisition by plant roots, and, in turn, the roots stimulate these processes by supplying organic carbon into the rhizosphere. The small physical dimensions of the rhizosphere, however, can constrain efforts to elucidate key carbon exchange processes and their spatial extent and localization. We present a method for spatially resolved δ 13 C analysis of rhizosphere samples by coupling laser ablation (LA) sampling with isotopic analysis using capillary absorption spectroscopy (CAS) which differs from conventional mass spectrometer (MS) approaches. The CAS system has high sensitivity (requires fewer nanomoles of CO 2 per analysis) than comparable MS systems, which enables reduced sample size requirements to thereby improve spatial resolution (from 25 μm to as low as a projected 5 μm spatial resolution). We demonstrate the utility of CAS using rhizosphere samples from switchgrass plants exposed to 13 CO 2 . As a result, this technique will provide a capability for tracking the extent and spatial distribution of root exudate into the rhizosphere at highly detailed spatial scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Decision Tool that Combines Discrete Event Software Process Models with System Dynamics Pieces for Software Development Cost Estimation and Analysis

The development process for a large software development project is very complex and dependent on many variables that are dynamic and interrelated. Factors such as size, productivity and defect injection rates will have substantial impact on the project in terms of cost and schedule. These factors can be affected by the intricacies of the process itself as well as human behavior because the process is very labor intensive. The complex nature of the development process can be investigated with software development process models that utilize discrete event simulation to analyze the effects of process changes. The organizational environment and its effects on the workforce can be analyzed with system dynamics that utilizes continuous simulation. Each has unique strengths and the benefits of both types can be exploited by combining a system dynamics model and a discrete event process model. This paper will demonstrate how the two types of models can be combined to investigate the impacts of human resource interactions on productivity and ultimately on cost and schedule.

Mizell, Carolyn Barrett↗

Combined Effect of El Nino Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Lake Chad Level Variability Region

In this study, the combined effect of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Lake Chad (LC) level variability is explored. Our results show that the lake level at the Bol monitoring station has a statistically significant correlation with precipitation (R2 = 0.6, at the 99.5% confidence level). The period between the late 1960s and early 1970s marked a turning point in the response of the regional rainfall to climatic drivers, thereby severely affecting the LC level. Our results also suggest that the negative impact of the cold phase of AMO on Sahel precipitation masks and supersedes the positive effect of La Niña in the early the 1970s. The drop in the size of LC level from 282.5 m in the early 1960s to about 278.1 m in 1983/1984 was the largest to occur within the period of study (1900-2010) and coincides with the combined cold phase of AMO and strong El Niño phase of ENSO. Further analyses show that the current warm phase of AMO and increasing La Niña episodes appear to be playing a major role in the increased precipitation in the Sahel region. The LC level is responding to this increase in precipitation by a gradual recovery, though it is still below the levels of the 1960s. This understanding of the AMO-ENSO-rainfall-LC level association will help in forecasting the impacts of similar combined episodes in the future. These findings also have implications for long-term water resources management in the LC region.

ENSO↗