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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

A Comprehensive Assessment of the Viability of Small Modular Reactors in Africa: A Nuclear Security and Nonproliferation Perspective

In response to escalating global energy demands driven by industrialization and the pressing need for decarbonization, this paper explores the potential of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) as a sustainable energy solution in Africa. Focusing on nuclear security and non-proliferation concerns, the study assesses Africa's energy landscape, emphasizing the need for diverse and reliable power sources. While highlighting the scalability and cost-effectiveness of SMRs, the analysis acknowledges potential challenges associated with their introduction, particularly concerning nuclear security and non-proliferation. Given the recommendation to use High Assay Low Enriched Uranium (HALEU) in some SMRs, it is important to critically consider the security implications of transporting nuclear materials, the proximity of the public to the plant, and the time taken to respond to planned assaults. The possibility of using HALEU makes the nuclear material more prone to adversaries such as sabotage, theft, and terrorism. Utilizing PESTLE analysis, this research seeks to outline the detailed political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal readiness of Africa to embrace the first-of-a-kind technology (SMR) while fulfilling its mandate to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Examining regulatory frameworks, international cooperation, and safety protocols, the study underscores the importance of regional collaboration to prevent the misuse of nuclear technology for military and malicious intent. Drawing insights from successful case studies, the paper concludes by synthesizing key findings and proposing recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders. These recommendations encompass regulatory enhancement, capacity building, technology transfer, and diplomatic efforts to strengthen nuclear security, non-proliferation, and safeguards in Africa.

Prah, Christina↗

A Risk-Informed Approach to Trustworthiness Assessment in Digital Twins-Based Autonomous Control

In autonomous control systems, digital twins (DTs) are used to perform diagnostic and prognostic functions. The trustworthiness of these DTs is dependent on quality and coverage of the training data, model accuracy and integrity of sensor data. This work introduces a methodology to determine the trustworthiness of a DT system given faulty sensor data using a risk informed approach. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are used to propagate uncertainties and determine the probability of trustable recommendations. The decision to trust the control action provided by the DT is based on the DT output, expert opinion, and severity of problems. The performance of DTs is reliant on the data they are trained on. When they encounter out of distribution data, the trustworthiness of the recommendations decreases. To address this issue, we include an expert component that provides input on sensor degradation. For this, we utilize a generative artificial intelligence (AI) model, such as Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT). The GPT functions as an expert with broad knowledge. The GPT is fine-tuned to understand and discriminate sensor degradation scenarios using manufactured data. This methodology is demonstrated through a case study on a Nearly Autonomous Management and Control System (NAMAC) during a steady state scenario. Various sensor degradation types with different severity levels are considered. Degraded sensor data is processed by the DT system and the fine-tuned GPT. Finally, using the BBN, we combine the GPT information and the DT output with its sources of uncertainty. This provides an output regarding the trustworthiness of the DT recommendation.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Adaptive Radiation Therapy (ART) Strategies and Technical Considerations: A State of the ART Review From NRG Oncology

The integration of adaptive radiation therapy (ART), or modifying the treatment plan during the treatment course, is becoming more widely available in clinical practice. ART offers strong potential for minimizing treatment-related toxicity while escalating or de-escalating target doses based on the dose to organs at risk. Yet, ART workflows add complexity into the radiation therapy planning and delivery process that may introduce additional uncertainties. This work sought to review presently available ART workflows and technological considerations such as image quality, deformable image registration, and dose accumulation. Quality assurance considerations for ART components and minimum recommendations are described. Personnel and workflow efficiency recommendations are provided, as is a summary of currently available clinical evidence supporting the implementation of ART. Finally, to guide future clinical trial protocols, an example ART physician directive and a physics template following standard NRG Oncology protocol is provided.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Trends in Radiation Therapy for Bone Metastases, 2015 to 2017: Choosing Wisely in the Era of Complex Radiation

Guidelines recommend short-course (≤10 fractions) external-beam radiation therapy (EBRT) for bone metastases. Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) may also improve outcomes; however, routine use is not recommended outside clinical trials. We assessed national radiation therapy trends in complex techniques for bone metastases and associated expenditures.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Validating Modern NRG Oncology Pelvic Nodal and Groupe Francophone de Radiothérapie Urologique Prostate Bed Contouring Guidelines for Post-Prostatectomy Salvage Radiation: A Secondary Analysis of the LOCATE Trial

We used the patterns of recurrence on {sup 18}F-fluciclovine positron emission tomography (PET)–computed tomography (CT) in patients enrolled in the LOCATE trial after prostatectomy to evaluate how well the most recent NRG Oncology and Groupe Francophone de Radiothérapie Urologique (GFRU) contouring recommendations encompassed all sites of recurrence in the prostate fossa and pelvic nodes in comparison to former Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) recommendations.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Barriers and Benefits: Understanding Riders’ Views on Pooled Rideshare in the U.S.

This manuscript provides actionable recommendations to enhance user satisfaction and address existing barriers regarding pooled rideshare (PR) in the United States. Despite PR’s intended benefits, such as reduced traffic congestion and cost savings, its adoption remains limited. To identify these actionable items, a U.S. nationwide survey with 5385 participants explored transportation preferences, barriers, and motivators for PR use in the summer of 2021. First, two factor analyses were conducted. The first factor analysis identified the five factors associated with one’s willingness to consider PR (time/cost, traffic/environment, safety, privacy, and service experience). The second factor analysis revealed the four factors related to ways to optimize one’s PR experience (comfort/ease of use, convenience, vehicle technology/accessibility, and passenger safety). Privacy concerns, for instance, were found to reduce the likelihood of PR adoption by 77%, and convenience had the potential to increase it by 156%. A structural equation model evaluated the relationships among these nine key factors influencing PR usage to develop the Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Model (PRAM). The privacy, safety, trust service, and convenience factors each had a significant large effect (Cohen’s f 2 > 0.35) on the model. PRAM was extended using multigroup analyses to reveal the nuanced impact of 16 demographics, including gender, generation, rideshare experience, etc., highlighting the need for tailored strategies to improve PR acceptance through the Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Model Multigroup Analyses (PRAMMAs). Multiple workshops were held with diverse audiences to translate the team’s findings to date into 84 actionable recommendations, categorized across topical areas like safety, routing, driver and passenger selection, user education, etc. These findings are a foundation for a future study to determine which items resonate with different user groups. In the meantime, the actional items serve as a user-driven resource for policymakers, transportation network companies, and researchers, offering a roadmap to potential improvements to PR services to address existing concerns with the goal of increasing the usage of PR.

actionable recommendations↗

Use of Historical EM Practices and Policies for Management of Cleanup Program and Address GAO Concerns - 20222

As Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) program policies and management practices are revised over time, it might be useful to periodically reflect on the DOE EM program's past to identify practices that have worked and those that might be appropriate for possible reuse in the future. An added impetus to examine alternative approaches is the recent Government Accountability Office (GAO) report entitled 'Nuclear Waste Cleanup - DOE Could Improve Program and Project Management by Better Classifying Work and Following Leading Practices.' The February 2019 GAO report states that EM categorizes most of its work in a way that does not adequately involve independent experts and DOE senior leadership. It also noted that EM has not followed leading practices for program and project management that could help keep the cleanup efforts on schedule and control costs. The GAO report recommended that EM, working with DOE Office of Project Management (PM): - Establish requirements and then assess EM's ongoing operations activities to determine if some activities should be reclassified as capital asset projects based on these newly established requirements. - Review and revise EM's 2017 cleanup policy to include program management leading practices related to scope, cost, schedule performance, and independent reviews. - Update the cleanup policy to require that earned value management (EVM) systems be maintained and used in a way that follows EVM best practices. - Develop a policy to ensure that work is categorized as level of effort (LOE) only in appropriate, specified circumstances, such as when work is not measurable or when measurement is impractical. - Integrate EVM data into EM's performance metrics for operations activities. To assist with improving program performance and implementing audit recommendations, this paper reviewed past successful cleanups such as Weldon Springs, Rocky Flats, Fernald, Ashtabula, Battelle Columbus (abs, and other historical resources and people with experience during the early years of EM program. As such, there are several past practices which may well be suited for reuse today. Some of these practices include: - In 1990's, as the DOE EM cleanup program, known as Environmental Restoration came into effect, the known cleanup scope at each geographic location or site was organized into four levels ranging from overall site-wide cleanup effort to the individual 'release sites', providing high granularity to the program. - The cleanup program was organized by geography (Northwest, Southwest, Eastern Area Programs, etc.). These 'sub-program' managers provided a degree of Headquarters oversight and management allowing upper management (EM-1, 2, and 3) to focus on major decisions and issues. - Budget levels at selected cleanup sites were funded above 'minimum-safety' levels to accelerate actual cleanup work. - Past practice utilized EVM techniques and uniform EM oversight over all discrete project-like activities, providing for a coordinated cleanup effort. - EM managed LOE activities using benchmarking and best in class management practice techniques to help manage costs. - EM managed and reviewed entire site cleanup baselines, not only individual projects, focusing on a successful overall outcome. - Sites had a 'Road map' or 'Management Action Plan' that provided the overall strategy or plan for that site's cleanup - this helped with understanding and coordination of efforts. - EM had a robust lessons-learned program and database to capture and transmit worthy ideas. - EM had well-structured cleanup baseline change control policies to control cost and schedule changes, at the contractor and higher Headquarters levels. Finally, some of the GAO observations may be valid, however it is not clear as to their extent. For example, for some operation types of work, the use of the Level of Effort (LOE) earned value method to track progress may be appropriate. Also, to ensure independence of thought, and to obtain useful insight on past practices, it may be suitable to have former EM employees to assist with understanding past practices or to verify that activities have been properly identified. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Integrating terrestrial scavenging ecology into contemporary wildlife conservation and management

Scavenging plays a vital role in maintaining ecosystem health and contributing to ecological functions; however, research in this sub-discipline of ecology is underutilized in developing and implementing wildlife conservation and management strategies. We provide an examination of the literature and recommend priorities for research where improved understanding of scavenging dynamics can facilitate the development and refinement of applied wildlife conservation and management strategies. Due to the application of scavenging research broadly within ecology, scavenging studies should be implemented for informing management decisions. In particular, a more direct link should be established between scavenging dynamics and applied management programs related to informing pharmaceutical delivery and population control through bait uptake for scavenging species, prevention of unintentional poisoning of nontarget scavenging species, the epidemiological role that scavenging species play in disease dynamics, estimating wildlife mortalities, nutrient transfer facilitated by scavenging activity, and conservation of imperiled facultative scavenging species. This commentary is intended to provide information on the paucity of data in scavenging research and present recommendations for further studies that can inform decisions in wildlife conservation and management. Additionally, we provide a framework for decision making when determining how to apply scavenging ecology research for management practices and policies. Due to the implications that scavenging species have on ecosystem health, and their overall global decline as a result of anthropic activities, it is imperative to advance studies in the field of scavenging ecology that can inform applied conservation and management programs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Progress Towards a Comprehensive Approach for Habitat Restoration in the Columbia Basin: Case Study in the Grande Ronde River

Abstract Despite immense resources directed towards habitat restoration, recovering fish populations remains a daunting and perplexing issue. In 2015, recommendations for a comprehensive approach to habitat restoration in the Columbia River basin were published in Fisheries, which included elements of landscape ecology and resilience, broad public support, governance for collaboration and integration, and capacity for learning and adaptation. Using the Grande Ronde River basin as a case study, we convened a working group consisting of local restoration practitioners, managers, and researchers involved in habitat restoration research, monitoring, and evaluation to assess progress towards meeting these recommendations. We concluded that partnerships and collaborations in governance have been formed and research using a landscape perspective has been integrated into decision making, but efforts would benefit from gaining broader public support, formalizing an adaptive management strategy, and defining objectives and indicators for biological and ecological diversity. Continued progress will require consistent policy and funding support from the broader region. We envision this self-assessment at the 5-year milestone would be helpful to other groups facing similar challenges.

White, Seth M. (ORCID:0000000349186865)↗

Advancing an integrated understanding of land–ocean connections in shaping the marine ecosystems of coastal temperate rainforest ecoregions

Land and ocean ecosystems are strongly connected and mutually interactive. As climate changes and other anthropogenic stressors intensify, the complex pathways that link these systems will strengthen or weaken in ways that are currently beyond reliable prediction. In this review we offer a framework of land–ocean couplings and their role in shaping marine ecosystems in coastal temperate rainforest (CTR) ecoregions, where high freshwater and materials flux result in particularly strong land–ocean connections. Using the largest contiguous expanse of CTR on Earth—the Northeast Pacific CTR (NPCTR)—as a case study, we integrate current understanding of the spatial and temporal scales of interacting processes across the land–ocean continuum, and examine how these processes structure and are defining features of marine ecosystems from nearshore to offshore domains. We look ahead to the potential effects of climate and other anthropogenic changes on the coupled land–ocean meta-ecosystem. Finally, we review key data gaps and provide research recommendations for an integrated, transdisciplinary approach with the intent to guide future evaluations of and management recommendations for ongoing impacts to marine ecosystems of the NPCTR and other CTRs globally. In the light of extreme events including heatwaves, fire, and flooding, which are occurring almost annually, this integrative agenda is not only necessary but urgent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Results of a Geant4 benchmarking study for bio‐medical applications, performed with the G4‐Med system

Geant4, a Monte Carlo Simulation Toolkit extensively used in bio-medical physics, is in continuous evolution to include newest research findings to improve its accuracy and to respond to the evolving needs of a very diverse user community. In 2014, the G4-Med benchmarking system was born from the effort of the Geant4 Medical Simulation Benchmarking Group, to benchmark and monitor the evolution of Geant4 for medical physics applications. The G4-Med system was first described in our Medical Physics Special Report published in 2021. Results of the tests were reported for Geant4 10.5. Purpose In this work, we describe the evolution of the G4-Med benchmarking system. Methods The G4-Med benchmarking suite currently includes 23 tests, which benchmark Geant4 from the calculation of basic physical quantities to the simulation of more clinically relevant set-ups. New tests concern the benchmarking of Geant4-DNA physics and chemistry components for regression testing purposes, dosimetry for brachytherapy with a 125 I source, dosimetry for external x-ray and electron FLASH radiotherapy, experimental microdosimetry for proton therapy, and in vivo PET for carbon and oxygen beams. Regression testing has been performed between Geant4 10.5 and 11.1. Finally, a simple Geant4 simulation has been developed and used to compare Geant4 EM physics constructors and physics lists in terms of execution times. Results In summary, our EM tests show that the parameters of the multiple scattering in the Geant4 EM constructor G4EmStandardPhysics_option3 in Geant4 11.1, while improving the modeling of the electron backscattering in high atomic number targets, are not adequate for dosimetry for clinical x-ray and electron beams. Therefore, these parameters have been reverted back to those of Geant4 10.5 in Geant4 11.2.1. The x-ray radiotherapy test shows significant differences in the modeling of the bremsstrahlung process, especially between G4EmPenelopePhysics and the other constructors under study (G4EmLivermorePhysics, G4EmStandardPhysics_option3, and G4EmStandardPhysics_option4). These differences will be studied in an in-depth investigation within our Group. Improvement in Geant4 11.1 has been observed for the modeling of the proton and carbon ion Bragg peak with energies of clinical interest, thanks to the adoption of ICRU90 to calculate the low energy proton stopping powers in water and of the Linhard–Sorensen ion model, available in Geant4 since version 11.0. Nuclear fragmentation tests of interest for carbon ion therapy show differences between Geant4 10.5 and 11.1 in terms of fragment yields. In particular, a higher production of boron fragments is observed with Geant4 11.1, leading to a better agreement with reference data for this fragment. Conclusions Based on the overall results of our tests, we recommend to use G4EmStandardPhysics_option4 as EM constructor and QGSP_BIC_HP with G4EmStandardPhysics_option4, for hadrontherapy applications. The Geant4-DNA physics lists report differences in modeling electron interactions in water, however, the tests have a pure regression testing purpose so no recommendation can be formulated.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Harmonizing direct and indirect anthropogenic land carbon fluxes indicates a substantial missing sink in the global carbon budget since the early 20th century

Inconsistencies in the calculation of the two anthropogenic land flux terms of the global carbon cycle are investigated. The two terms—the direct anthropogenic flux (caused by direct human disturbance in anthromes, currently a carbon source to the atmosphere) and the indirect anthropogenic flux (caused indirectly by human activities that lead to global change and affecting all biomes, currently an atmospheric carbon sink)—are typically calculated independently, resulting in inconsistent underlying assumptions. We harmonize the estimation of the two anthropogenic land flux terms by incorporating previous estimates of these inconsistencies. We recalculate the global carbon budget (GCB) and apply change-point analysis to the cumulative budget imbalance. Cumulative over 1850–2018 (1959–2018), harmonization results in a 13% lesser (4% greater) land use source from anthromes and a 20% (23%) lesser land sink. This recalculation yields a greater non-closure of the GCB, indicating a missing carbon sink averaging 0.65 Pg C year -1 since the early 20th century. The imbalance likely results from a combination of method discontinuity and structural errors in the assessment of the direct anthropogenic land use flux, greater ocean carbon uptake, structural errors in land models, and in how these land terms are quantified for the budget. We caution against overconfidence in considering the GCB a solved problem and recommend further study of methodological discontinuities in budget terms. We strongly recommend studies that quantify the direct and indirect anthropogenic land fluxes simultaneously to ensure consistency, with a deeper understanding of human disturbance and legacy effects in anthromes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How Should Researchers Measure Perovskite-Based Monolithic Multijunction Solar Cells’ Performance? A Calibration Lab's Perspective

Perovskite multijunctions (PVSK MJs) have made remarkable progress with monolithic PVSK/PVSK tandems surpassing the efficiency of single-junction (1 J) PVSK cells and PVSK/Si cells reported to exceed the 30% efficiency mark. These efficiencies are reported at standard test conditions (STC), established by the photovoltaic (PV) community to facilitate comparison between devices and technologies. Herein, it is discussed why an accurate STC performance measurement for a MJ is more complicated than for a 1 J cell and the special aspects to be considered when measuring the current-voltage characteristics and the performance of PVSK-containing MJ cells are emphasized. It is discussed why a spectrally adjustable solar simulator is needed and the sequence of accurate performance measurement, namely measurement of the spectral response of each junction, adjustment of the spectrum, and appropriate protocols for measuring the power output of the device at STC, is presented. For all these, common errors and pitfalls that sometime lead to misleading interpretation of the results are presented, and the methods to evaluate the accuracy of the data when a spectrally adjustable solar simulator is not available are recommended. Finally, first step is taken toward recommending performance measurement approaches when high throughput is required as will eventually be in a production line.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Wind turbine main bearing rating lives as determined by IEC 61400‐1 and ISO 281: A critical review and exploratory case study

Abstract This paper studies the rating lives of wind turbine main bearings, as determined by the IEC 61400‐1 and ISO 281 standards. A critical review of relevant bearing life theory and turbine design requirements is provided, including discussion on possible shortcomings such as the existence (or not) of the bearing fatigue load limit and the validity of assuming linear damage accumulation. A detailed exploratory case study is then undertaken to determine rating lives for two models of main bearing in a 1.5 MW wind turbine. Rating life assessment is carried out under different conditions, including various combinations of main bearing temperature, wind field characteristics, lubricant viscosity, and contamination levels. Rating lives are found to be sufficiently above the desired 20‐year design life for both bearing models under expected operating conditions. For the larger bearing, operational loads are shown to be below or close to the bearing fatigue load limit a vast majority of the time. Key sensitivities for rating life values are temperature and contamination. Overall, the results of this study suggest that an ISO 281 rating life assessment does not account for reported rates of main bearing failures in 1 to 3 MW wind turbines. It is recommended that a similar analysis be undertaken for ISO/TS 16281 rating lives, along with further efforts to identify principal root causes of main bearing failures in future work, possibly leading to a new application standard specific to this component. It is also recommended that the impacts of partial wake impingement on main bearing rating lives are investigated.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Melt Pool and Heat Treatment Optimization for the Fabrication of High-Strength and High-Toughness Additively Manufactured 4340 Steel

Additively manufactured (AM) components offer superior design flexibility compared to their conventionally manufactured counterparts, and optimizing processing parameters is key to achieving high-quality depositions with desirable and predictable mechanical properties. This study was focused on 4340 steel fabricated using laser powder bed fusion (LPBF), and 42 laser power and scan speed combinations have been systematically investigated to determine an optimized melt pool geometry that would ensure fully-dense parts. The AM material was compared with a wrought 4340 equivalent and studied in two customized heat treated conditions, optimized for strength and toughness, respectively. The microstructures of the as-fabricated and heat treated AM and wrought materials were characterized to assess differences introduced by the layer-by-layer fabrication process and subsequent heat treatment. Tensile properties of both materials were also evaluated and demonstrate that the AM materials offer equal or superior properties compared to the wrought equivalents. Differences in fracture surface morphologies indicate the distinct failure mechanisms associated with the materials’ characteristic microstructures, and the role of inclusions in the failures was studied to elucidate these differences. Complementary to the experimental investigations, the dataset was leveraged to make recommendations for future design of experiments to optimize AM build parameters in other material systems. A statistical Monte Carlo analysis was used to predict the interpolation error produced using reduced datasets and to enable informed processing parameters selection. These findings are discussed to make recommendations for the use of AM materials for high-integrity structural applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Comprehensive review of 2 β decay half-lives

Here, the double-beta (2 β )-decay is the rarest nuclear physics process, and its experimental half-lives (T 1/2 ) exceed the age of the Universe from nine to fourteen orders of magnitude. Double-beta decay was observed, and its half-life was measured in 14 parent nuclei using direct, radiochemical, and geochemical methods. The decay observables are analyzed using the Evaluated Nuclear Structure Data File (ENSDF) procedures, and the recommended T 1/2 were deduced. Using the calculated values of phase factors, the effective nuclear matrix elements were extracted and compared with available data. Thousands of theoretical and experimental works have been dedicated to these topics in the last 85 years, and we present two data sets of recommended values to encapsulate the results.

2β-decay↗

A two-phase three-field modeling framework for heat pipe application in nuclear reactors

Heat pipes and two-phase thermosyphons are highly efficient heat transfer devices utilizing continuous evaporation and condensation of working fluid for two-phase heat transport in closed systems. Because of the nearly isothermal and fully passive phase-change heat transfer mechanism, heat pipes and thermosyphons have found many applications in nuclear engineering, space technologies, and other energy systems. High-temperature heat pipes are used in nuclear microreactors to remove fission power from the primary system and are coupled with power conversion systems or process heat applications. Modeling of the two-phase flow phenomena inside a heat pipe is essential to its design and safety analysis. In this study, a comprehensive one-dimensional two-phase three-field flow model has been developed for the analysis of heat pipes in normal operation conditions and transients. The conservation or field equations of mass, momentum, and energy were developed for the liquid film, vapor, and droplet. In addition, constitutive models or correlations were reviewed thoroughly and provided for the closure of the three-field equations. Specific constitutive equations regarding interfacial mass and heat transfer at two interfaces, namely film-gas interface and gas-droplet interface, were reviewed for droplet entrainment and deposition rates as well as film and droplet evaporation rates. Furthermore, mechanistic correlations of annular flow film thickness were recommended for the modeling of the thermosyphons without a wick as a critical constitutive correlation. Furthermore, experimental data needs from new experiments using a prototype working fluid or surrogate fluids for the model validation of high-temperature heat pipes in microreactors were recommended for future research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning

Building thermal load prediction informs the optimization of cooling plant and thermal energy storage. Physics-based prediction models of building thermal load are constrained by the model and input complexity. In this study, we developed 12 data-driven models (7 shallow learning, 2 deep learning, and 3 heuristic methods) to predict building thermal load and compared shallow machine learning and deep learning. The 12 prediction models were compared with the measured cooling demand. It was found XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boost) and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) provided the most accurate load prediction in the shallow and deep learning category, and both outperformed the best baseline model, which uses the previous day's data for prediction. Then, we discussed how the prediction horizon and input uncertainty would influence the load prediction accuracy. Major conclusions are twofold: first, LSTM performs well in short-term prediction (1 h ahead) but not in long term prediction (24 h ahead), because the sequential information becomes less relevant and accordingly not so useful when the prediction horizon is long. Second, the presence of weather forecast uncertainty deteriorates XGBoost's accuracy and favors LSTM, because the sequential information makes the model more robust to input uncertainty. Training the model with the uncertain rather than accurate weather data could enhance the model's robustness. Finally, our findings have two implications for practice. First, LSTM is recommended for short-term load prediction given that weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable. Second, XGBoost is recommended for long term prediction, and the model should be trained with the presence of input uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗