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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

NARUC grid data sharing playbook

In 2022, the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) launched an initiative to support its members in addressing issues related to grid data sharing. The Grid Data Sharing Collaborative was funded by the DOE’s Office of Electricity and Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER). NARUC invited programmatic, policy, technical, and cybersecurity subject matter experts from public utility commissions, utilities, non-governmental organizations, energy service companies, and DOE to join the two-year Grid Data Sharing Collaborative to help develop a flexible framework for states to use as a starting point when navigating complex decision-making inherent in grid data sharing. The framework took shape through a series of intensive workshops during which Collaborative participants explored illustrative use cases to identify data needs, articulate the benefits and risks of sharing such data, and assess the trade-offs. Along the way, participants offered suggestions for how the framework could be used in practice. The purpose of this playbook is to describe the elements of the Grid Data Sharing Framework and to begin supporting its implementation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Decontamination of Mixed Paper and Plastic Municipal Solid Waste Increases Low and High Temperature Conversion Yields

With the implementation of China’s Green Fence Policy and the following National Sword Policy, there is a need to divert previously accepted waste materials away from the landfill. Mixed plastic and paper wastes that are too contaminated to be economically recycled can be used for conversion into fuels and products. The effect of common contaminants present in waste streams must be determined to make municipal solid waste (MSW) a viable alternative to agricultural feedstocks for conversion. In this study, MSW was sourced from a dual stream materials recovery facility (MRF) in Emmet County, Michigan and characterized via mass balance. The most common contaminants in mixed paper and plastic were quantified and targeted for decontamination when mixed paper was explored for low temperature conversion pathways and plastics for high temperature conversion pathways. Ink, stickies, and plastic contamination were sorted out of the mixed paper stream and did not have an impact on sugar yields during enzymatic hydrolysis (EH). Although no improvement in yield was found, it was noted that copy paper within the mixed paper stream had an elevated pH and higher concentration of fermentation inhibitors, suggesting that intrinsic properties of some paper types may not be ideal for EH and fermentation conversion. Dilute alkaline pretreatment and mechanical refining of mixed paper increased the EH yield of mixed paper, suggesting this previously established process could be used as a decontamination method. “Dirt” and particulates were washed from mixed plastic using either an aqueous detergent or a non-aqueous chemical washing method. Liquid oil yields were increased during microwave assisted fast pyrolysis. All decontamination techniques met the cost target of less than $30/dry ton with plastic decontamination ranging from $18.16 to $24.81/dry ton. Because dilute alkaline pre-treatment and mechanical refining is considered part of the conversion process, the decontamination cost during feedstock preprocessing was considered $0/dry ton.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Lesson Learned from Technical and Economic Performance Assessment and Benefit Evaluation of CHP-FCS

Recent efforts and interest in combined heat and power (CHP) have increased with the momentum provided by the federal government support for penetration of CHP systems. Combined heat and power fuel cell systems (CHP-FCSs) provide consistent electrical power and utilize the heat normally wasted in power generation for useful heating or cooling with lower emissions compared to alternative sources. A recent study investigated the utilization of CHP-FCSs in the range of 5 to 50KWe in various commercial building types and geographic locations. Electricity, heating, and water heating demands were obtained from simulation of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) commercial reference building models for various building types. Utility rates, cost of equipment, and system efficiency were used to examine economic payback in different scenarios. As a new technology in the early stages of adoption, CHP-FCSs are more expensive than alternative technologies, and the high capital cost of the CHP-FCSs results in a longer payback period than is typically acceptable for all but early-adopter market segments. However, the installation of these units as on-site power generators also provide several other benefits that make them attractive to building owners and operators. The business case for CHP-FCSs can be made more financially attractive through the provision of government incentives and when installed to support strategic infrastructure, such as military installations or data centers. The results presented in this paper intend to provide policy makers with information to define more customized incentives and tax credits based on a sample of building types and geographic locations in order to attract more business investment in this new technology.

Makhmalbaf, Atefe↗

Integrated Decision Methodology for Final Disposal of Radioactive Sources

Radioactive sources are used throughout the world, and their beneficial uses are many. Sources are at the core of many applications in different branches of industry, medicine, agriculture and research. Sources are present in a very wide range of equipment that is used for, inter alia, cancer treatment, killing bacteria in food, sterilizing medical supplies, measuring instruments such as gauges used to measure soil moisture and soil density and many other components, irradiating seeds for enhancing food production, protecting buildings from lightning strikes, mapping underground sources of water, prospecting for oil and gas reserves, measuring density of soil for construction projects, or even detecting smoke. At their “cradle” and when in use, radioactive sources are usually properly managed and controlled. It is when a source has reached the end of its useful life when they are at a higher risk of being under inadequate control, poorly managed, or even becoming orphan. Sources that have reached the end of their useful life must be carefully and safely managed. The “grave” of disused sources needs a proper disposal process to prevent them from posing a potential threat to people or the environment. To protect the public and the environment from the potential hazards of ionizing radiation, and to prevent disused sources from becoming orphan, a “cradle-to-grave” control of radioactive sources is essential, as promoted by the Code of Conduct on the Safety and Security of Radioactive Sources. This approach requires a national policy and strategy, an adequate legal and regulatory framework, and adequate resources and infrastructure. Many IAEAMember States have expressed the need for effective solutions to this challenge. There is also a gap related to the life cycle costs of potential disposal practices. This paper proposes a multi-attribute decision making methodology to compare disposal options using both economic and non-economic criteria leading to a preferred option for disposal and a strategy for final disposal of disused radioactive sources that is specific and optimized for each IAEA Member State.

Beatty, Randy↗

Information Filters for Safeguards Applications: A Scoping Study

A core concern of the Department of Energy is protecting sensitive information in the face of verification agreements that may make use of increasingly sophisticated and intrusive sensors. The conflict between intrusiveness and information protection is evident in existing treaties, such as the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and the Additional Protocol (AP), where Congress has seen a need to step in and enact implementing legislation to protect, for example, sensitive information such as certain unique chemical signatures, but in so doing has introduced complexities into U.S. treaty compliance policy. Information barriers or filters (IFs) – broadly defined as physical and/or encryption mechanisms that preclude acquisition of sensitive, quantitative information while allowing the acquisition of treaty-relevant qualitative information by an inspectorate – could play a useful role in avoiding this type of conflict. In order to stimulate new thinking on ways to meet existing and future safeguard challenges, this scoping study investigates how IFs – a technique borrowed from the realm of arms control verification - might contribute to international safeguards activities. Information filters (IFs) have long been recognized as an important tool for the protection of sensitive signals and other data in the verification of bilateral and multilateral arms control treaties. The implementation of NPT safeguards, while differing somewhat in context from arms control verification, involves similar sensitivity concerns. This report examines whether or not IFs can be useful in the world of international safeguards, and provides a survey of methods of barring or filtering information that could be applied. The study finds that while many safeguards activities involve non sensitive data, there are also a number of areas where IFs are already in use and others where IFs could make a useful contribution. Examples include verification of enrichment plants, complementary access inspections, and the Additional Protocol (AP) to Comprehensive Safeguards Agreements (CSAs) under the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Definition of Earth Resources Policy and Management Problems in California

The activities of the Social Sciences Group in solving earth resources management problems as related to social factors, are reported. Major efforts of the Group revolved around identifying potential users of ERTS data, ascertain the user's needs, and assay the organizational impacts of new and technologically advanced sources of information. Attempts were also made to develop a linear programming model to be used in decision making with respect to resources being observed by ERTS and other remote sensing vehicles. The cost effectiveness of solving these management problems is discussed.

Churchman, C. W.↗

Equity-Centered Engagement Through Climate Resilience Policy in Massachusetts

Communities who experience disproportionate climate change impacts tend to be excluded from resilience planning (Vale, 2014). Those efforts typically follow top-down processes within established governance practices that are inaccessible to marginalized folks and reinforce inequalities (Malloy & Ashcraft, 2020; Adger, 2003). Such participatory planning processes may offer the public little opportunity to influence the process itself or the outcomes (Smith & McDonough, 2001). They might ignore important public values or alternative ways of knowing which can be critical assets in resilience (Few et al., 2007). Designing communities for climate action and resilience means creating opportunities for everyone to meaningfully shape those decisions and experience related benefits. Having the opportunity to shape one’s community is necessary for human flourishing (Allen, 2016). Resilience planning that shifts power into communities and focuses on social vulnerability can affect how people survive and thrive in a climate changed world. The Massachusetts Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness (MVP) 2.0 program is an attempt to change the status quo in resilience planning by bringing new voices into decision-making power, recognizing their labor, addressing root causes of vulnerability, and investing in social infrastructure. It aspires to build capacity for equity-focused community engagement within teams of municipal staff and community liaisons, and ultimately build social capital and community cohesion. My mixed methods research investigates implementation of this state grant program in several western Massachusetts towns. I am using document review, participant observation, and interviews to understand the MVP 2.0 process as written, how different towns navigate it, and how individuals make sense of their experiences in it. I seek to understand how those experiences explain relationships between engagement approaches, mediating factors, and process outcomes. I am interested in the conditions that allow for community empowerment and how a model like MVP 2.0 can shift conditions that hold systems in place. In a practical sense, our findings will help municipalities reflect on their work during MVP 2.0 and plan for future community engagement. They may be informative for designing future iterations of the MVP program and for other municipalities, offices of community engagement, and practitioners. The findings will also contribute to the participation, resilience, and climate justice literatures, by adding perspectives on equity-centered resilience and community engagement approaches in smaller towns and rural settings. References: Adger, W. N. (2003). Social capital, collective action, and adaptation to climate change. Economic Geography, 79, 387-404. Allen, D. (2016). Toward a connected society. Our compelling interests: The value of diversity for democracy and a prosperous society, 71-105. Few, R., Brown, K., & Tompkins, E. L. (2007). Public participation and climate change adaptation: avoiding the illusion of inclusion. Climate Policy, 7(1), 46–59. Malloy, J. T., & Ashcraft, C. M. (2020). A framework for implementing socially just climate adaptation. Climatic Change, 160(1), 1–14. Smith, P. D., & McDonough, M. H. (2001). Beyond public participation: Fairness in natural resource decision making. Society & natural resources, 14(3), 239-249. Vale, L. J. (2014). The politics of resilient cities: whose resilience and whose city? Building Research & Information, 42(2), 191–201.

Callaham, Shannon↗

Characteristics of low-priced solar PV systems in the U.S.

Despite impressive declines in average prices, there is wide dispersion in the prices of U.S. solar photovoltaic (PV) systems; prices span more than a factor of four. What are the characteristics of the systems with low-prices? Using detailed characteristics of 42,611 small-scale (<15 kW) PV systems installed in 15 U.S. states during 2013, we identify the most important factors that make a system likely to be low-priced (LP). Comparing LP and non-LP systems, we find statistically significant differences in nearly all characteristics for which we have data. Logit and probit model results robustly indicate that LP systems are associated with: markets with few active installers; experienced installers; customer ownership; large systems; retrofits; and thin-film, low-efficiency, and Chinese modules. We also find significant differences across states, with LP systems much more likely to occur in some states, such as Arizona, New Jersey, and New Mexico, and less likely in others, such as California. Our focus on the left tail of the price distribution provides implications for policy that are distinct from recent studies of mean prices. While those studies find that PV subsidies increase mean prices, we find that subsidies also generate LP systems. PV subsidies appear to simultaneously shift and broaden the price distribution. Much of this broadening occurs in a particular location, northern California.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Automated Control of Transactive HVACs in Energy Distribution Systems

Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems contribute significantly to a building’s energy consumption. In the recent years, there is an increased interest in developing transactive approaches which could enable automated and flexible scheduling of HVAC systems based on the customer demand and the electricity prices decided by the suppliers. Flexible and automated scheduling of the HVAC systems make it a prime source for participation in residential demand response or transactive energy systems. Therefore, it is of significant interest to identify an optimal strategy to control the HVAC systems. Here, reducing the energy cost while keeping the comfort level acceptable to the users, we argue that such a control strategy should consider both the energy cost and user comfort simultaneously. Accordingly, we develop the control strategy through the solution of an optimization problem that balances between the energy cost and consumer’s dissatisfaction. This optimization enables us to solve a decision-making problem through first price prediction and then choosing HVAC temperature settings throughout the day based on the predicted price, history of the price and HVAC settings, and outside temperature. More specifically, we formulate the control design as a Markov decision process (MDP) using deep neural networks and use Deep Deterministic Policy Gradients (DDPG)-based deep reinforcement learning algorithm to find the optimal control strategy for HVAC systems that balances between electricity cost and user comfort.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Uncertainties in greenhouse gas emission factors: A comprehensive analysis of switchgrass‐based biofuel production

Abstract This study investigates uncertainties in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission factors related to switchgrass‐based biofuel production in Michigan. Using three life cycle assessment (LCA) databases—US lifecycle inventory (USLCI) database, GREET, and Ecoinvent—each with multiple versions, we recalculated the global warming intensity (GWI) and GHG mitigation potential in a static calculation. Employing Monte Carlo simulations along with local and global sensitivity analyses, we assess uncertainties and pinpoint key parameters influencing GWI. The convergence of results across our previous study, static calculations, and Monte Carlo simulations enhances the credibility of estimated GWI values. Static calculations, validated by Monte Carlo simulations, offer reasonable central tendencies, providing a robust foundation for policy considerations. However, the wider range observed in Monte Carlo simulations underscores the importance of potential variations and uncertainties in real‐world applications. Sensitivity analyses identify biofuel yield, GHG emissions of electricity, and soil organic carbon (SOC) change as pivotal parameters influencing GWI. Decreasing uncertainties in GWI may be achieved by making greater efforts to acquire more precise data on these parameters. Our study emphasizes the significance of considering diverse GHG factors and databases in GWI assessments and stresses the need for accurate electricity fuel mixes, crucial information for refining GWI assessments and informing strategies for sustainable biofuel production.

Kim, Seungdo↗

State Energy Justice Roundtable Series: Participation in Decision Making

The National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC), National Association of State Energy Officials (NASEO), and National Governors Association (NGA) hosted a State Energy Justice Roundtable (Roundtable) in April 2022. Participants included federal and state decision-makers, members of community-based organizations, and subject-matter experts. The Roundtable members explored current state efforts to articulate and incorporate energy justice concerns into energy-related decision-making. Participants established connections with one another to better understand the current landscape of existing resources, learn about emerging efforts, and identify ongoing support opportunities for advancing energy justice.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Hybrid Energy System Workflow for Energy Portfolio Optimization

This manuscript develops a workflow, driven by data analytics algorithms, to support the optimization of the economic performance of an Integrated Energy System. The goal is to determine the optimum mix of capacities from a set of different energy producers (e.g., nuclear, gas, wind and solar). A stochastic-based optimizer is employed, based on Gaussian Process Modeling, which requires numerous samples for its training. Each sample represents a time series describing the demand, load, or other operational and economic profiles for various types of energy producers. These samples are synthetically generated using a reduced order modeling algorithm that reads a limited set of historical data, such as demand and load data from past years. Numerous data analysis methods are employed to construct the reduced order models, including, for example, the Auto Regressive Moving Average, Fourier series decomposition, and the peak detection algorithm. All these algorithms are designed to detrend the data and extract features that can be employed to generate synthetic time histories that preserve the statistical properties of the original limited historical data. The optimization cost function is based on an economic model that assesses the effective cost of energy based on two figures of merit: the specific cash flow stream for each energy producer and the total Net Present Value. An initial guess for the optimal capacities is obtained using the screening curve method. The results of the Gaussian Process model-based optimization are assessed using an exhaustive Monte Carlo search, with the results indicating reasonable optimization results. The workflow has been implemented inside the Idaho National Laboratory’s Risk Analysis and Virtual Environment (RAVEN) framework. The main contribution of this study addresses several challenges in the current optimization methods of the energy portfolios in IES: First, the feasibility of generating the synthetic time series of the periodic peak data; Second, the computational burden of the conventional stochastic optimization of the energy portfolio, associated with the need for repeated executions of system models; Third, the inadequacies of previous studies in terms of the comparisons of the impact of the economic parameters. The proposed workflow can provide a scientifically defendable strategy to support decision-making in the electricity market and to help energy distributors develop a better understanding of the performance of integrated energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Satellite Observations for Detecting and Tracking Changes in Atmospheric Composition

The satellite observations provide constraints on detailed atmospheric modeling, including emissions inventories, indications of transport, harmonized data over vast areas suitable for trends analysis, and a link between spatial scales ranging from local to global, and temporal scales from diurnal to interannual. 1 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) long-term commitments help provide these observations in cooperation with international meteorological organizations. NASA s long-term commitments will advance scientifically important observations as part of its Earth Science Program, and will assist the transition of the science measurements to applied analyses through the Applied Science Program. Both NASA and NOAA have begun to provide near realtime data and tools to visualize and analyze satellite data,2 while maintaining data quality, validation, and standards. Consequently, decision-makers can expect satellite data services to support air quality decision making now and in the future. The international scientific community's Integrated Global Atmosphere Chemistry Observation System Report3 outlined a plan for ground-based, airborne and satellite measurements and models to integrate the observations into a four-dimensional representation of the atmosphere (space and time) to support assessment and policy information needs. This plan is being carried out under the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). Demonstrations of such an integrated capability4 provide new understanding of the changing atmosphere and link policy decisions to benefits for society. In this article, we highlight the use of satellite data to constrain biomass burning emissions, to assess oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)) emission reductions, and to contribute to state implementation plans, as examples of the use of satellite observations for detecting and tracking changes in atmospheric composition.

Neil, Doreen O.↗

Identification of Safety Metrics for Airport Surface Operations

A large fraction of safety incidents occurs on the ground during airport surface operations. Although these incidents are mostly non-fatal with a few exceptions, they are high profile incidents that remain a source of concern for the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), major airlines, and other stakeholders of the National Airspace System (NAS). These incidents have historically been mitigated by implementing changes to regulations, policies, and procedures over time. This approach has minimized but not eliminated the risk of occurrence of safety incidents. It is thus important to develop integrated techniques to assess, model, and prevent these incidents by analyzing the risk and likelihood of occurrence and communicating results of the analysis to decision-making personnel who can mitigate and prevent incidents in real time. The work presented in this paper builds on a previously developed architecture for safety, Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM), to enable monitoring and prediction of the safety of the NAS. In the RTSM framework, hazards to flight are translated to safety metrics such as wake vortex encounters or loss of separation, that can be modeled and analyzed offline and also predicted and monitored in real time (online). The intent of this paper is to integrate predictable incidents that occur during surface and ground operations into the safety portfolio of the RTSM project by (i) identifying suitable information sources from which ground incidents can be studied, (ii) developing safety metrics correlated with surface operations, and (iii) recommending suitable data sources that can be quantified and used for the computation of pertinent safety metrics.

safety↗

The spread of technological innovations: effects of psychology, culture and policy interventions

Technological innovations drive the evolution of human societies. The success of innovations depends not only on their actual benefits but also on how potential adopters perceive them and how their beliefs are affected by their social and cultural environment. To deepen our understanding of socio-psychological processes affecting the new technology spread, we model the joint dynamics of three interlinked processes: individual learning and mastering the new technology, changes in individual attitudes towards it, and changes in individual adoption decisions. We assume that the new technology can potentially lead to a higher benefit but achieving it requires learning. We posit that individual decision-making process as well as their attitudes are affected by cognitive dissonance and conformity with peers and an external authority. Individuals vary in different psychological characteristics and in their attitudes. We investigate both transient dynamics and long-term equilibria observed in our model. We show that early adopters are usually individuals who are characterized by low cognitive dissonance and low conformity with peers but are sensitive to the effort of an external authority promoting the innovation. We examine the effectiveness of five different intervention strategies aiming to promote the diffusion of a new technology: training individuals, providing subsidies for early adopters, increasing the visibility of peer actions, simplifying the exchange of opinions between people, and increasing the effort of an external authority. We also discuss the effects of culture on the spread of innovations. Finally, we demonstrate that neglecting the cognitive forces and the dynamic nature of individual attitudes can lead to wrong conclusions about adoption of innovations. Our results can be useful in developing more efficient policies aiming to promote the spread of new technologies in different societies, cultures and countries.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Sequentially calibrating a Bayesian microsimulation model to incorporate new information and assumptions

Background: Microsimulation models are mathematical models that simulate event histories for individual members of a population. They are useful for policy decisions because they simulate a large number of individuals from an idealized population, with features that change over time, and the resulting event histories can be summarized to describe key population-level outcomes. Model calibration is the process of incorporating evidence into the model. Calibrated models can be used to make predictions about population trends in disease outcomes and effectiveness of interventions, but calibration can be challenging and computationally expensive. Methods: This paper develops a technique for sequentially updating models to take full advantage of earlier calibration results, to ultimately speed up the calibration process. A Bayesian approach to calibration is used because it combines different sources of evidence and enables uncertainty quantification which is appealing for decision-making. We develop this method in order to re-calibrate a microsimulation model for the natural history of colorectal cancer to include new targets that better inform the time from initiation of preclinical cancer to presentation with clinical cancer (sojourn time), because model exploration and validation revealed that more information was needed on sojourn time, and that the predicted percentage of patients with cancers detected via colonoscopy screening was too low. Results: The sequential approach to calibration was more efficient than recalibrating the model from scratch. Incorporating new information on the percentage of patients with cancers detected upon screening changed the estimated sojourn time parameters significantly, increasing the estimated mean sojourn time for cancers in the colon and rectum, providing results with more validity. Conclusions: A sequential approach to recalibration can be used to efficiently recalibrate a microsimulation model when new information becomes available that requires the original targets to be supplemented with additional targets.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗