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NASA NTRS2011

Demonstrating the Operational Value of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Profiles in the Pre-Convective Environment

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) is a project to transition those NASA observations and research capabilities to the weather forecasting community to improve the short-term regional forecasts. This poster reviews the work to demonstrate the value to these forecasts of profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on board the Aqua satellite with particular assistance in predicting thunderstorm forecasts by the profiles of the pre-convective environment.

Kozlowski, Danielle↗
NASA NTRS2017

Prediction and Warning of Transported Turbulence in Long-Haul Aircraft Operations

An aviation flight planning system is used for predicting and warning for intersection of flight paths with transported meteorological disturbances, such as transported turbulence and related phenomena. Sensed data and transmitted data provide real time and forecast data related to meteorological conditions. Data modelling transported meteorological disturbances are applied to the received transmitted data and the sensed data to use the data modelling transported meteorological disturbances to correlate the sensed data and received transmitted data. The correlation is used to identify transported meteorological disturbances source characteristics, and identify predicted transported meteorological disturbances trajectories from source to intersection with flight path in space and time. The correlated data are provided to a visualization system that projects coordinates of a point of interest (POI) in a selected point of view (POV) to displays the flight track and the predicted transported meteorological disturbances warnings for the flight crew.

Shipley, Scott T.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Improving NOAA's Tides and Currents Through Enhanced Data Inputs from NASA's Ocean Surface Topography Mission

The Nation uses water-level data for a variety of practical purposes, including hydrography, nautical charting, maritime navigation, coastal engineering, and tsunami and storm surge warnings (NOAA, 2002; Digby et al., 1999). Long-term applications include marine boundary determinations, tidal predictions, sea-level trend monitoring, oceanographic research, and climate research. Accurate and timely information concerning sea-level height, tide, and ocean current is needed to understand their impact on coastal management, disaster management, and public health. Satellite altimeter data products are currently used by hundreds of researchers and operational users to monitor ocean circulation and to improve scientists understanding of the role of the oceans in climate and weather. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) National Ocean Service has been monitoring sea-level variations for many years (NOAA, 2006). NOAA s Tides & Currents DST (decision support tool, managed by the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, is the portal to a vast collection of oceanographic and meteorological data (historical and real-time), predictions, and nowcasts and forecasts. This report assesses the capacity of NASA s satellite altimeter data to meet societal decision support needs through incorporation into NOAA s Tides & Currents.

Guest, DeNeice C.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Discovery and New Frontiers Project Budget Analysis Tool

The Discovery and New Frontiers (D&NF) programs are multi-project, uncoupled programs that currently comprise 13 missions in phases A through F. The ability to fly frequent science missions to explore the solar system is the primary measure of program success. The program office uses a Budget Analysis Tool to perform "what-if" analyses and compare mission scenarios to the current program budget, and rapidly forecast the programs ability to meet their launch rate requirements. The tool allows the user to specify the total mission cost (fixed year), mission development and operations profile by phase (percent total mission cost and duration), launch vehicle, and launch date for multiple missions. The tool automatically applies inflation and rolls up the total program costs (in real year dollars) for comparison against available program budget. Thus, the tool allows the user to rapidly and easily explore a variety of launch rates and analyze the effect of changes in future mission or launch vehicle costs, the differing development profiles or operational durations of a future mission, or a replan of a current mission on the overall program budget. Because the tool also reports average monthly costs for the specified mission profile, the development or operations cost profile can easily be validate against program experience for similar missions. While specifically designed for predicting overall program budgets for programs that develop and operate multiple missions concurrently, the basic concept of the tool (rolling up multiple, independently-budget lines) could easily be adapted to other applications.

Newhouse, Marilyn E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Performance status of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder ten years after launch

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a hyperspectral infrared instrument on the EOS Aqua Spacecraft, launched on May 4, 2002. AIRS has 2378 infrared channels ranging from 3.7 μm to 15.4 μm and a 13.5 km footprint at nadir. The AIRS is a “facility” instrument developed by NASA as an experimental demonstration of advanced technology for remote sensing and the benefits of high resolution infrared spectra to science investigations. AIRS, in conjunction with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), produces temperature profiles with 1K/km accuracy on a global scale, as well as water vapor profiles and trace gas amounts for CO2, CO, SO2, O3 and CH4. AIRS data are used for weather forecasting, climate process studies and validating climate models. The AIRS instrument has far exceeded its required design life of 5 years, with over 10 years of operations as of September 2012. While the instrument has performed exceptionally well, with little signs of wear, the AIRS Project continues to monitor and maintain the health of AIRS, characterize its behavior and improve performance where possible. Radiometric stability has been monitored and trending shows better than 16 mK/year stability. Spectral calibration stability is better than 1 ppm/year, and a new gain table was recently uploaded to recover 100 significantly degraded or dead channels by switching to their redundant counterpart. At this time we expect the AIRS to continue to perform well for the next decade.

Strow, Larrabee↗
NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of Global Surface Water Temperature Data Sets for use in Passive Remote Sensing of Soil Moisture

Inland open water bodies often pose a systematic error source in the passive remote sensing retrievals of soil moisture. Water temperature is a necessary variable used to compute water emissions that is required to be subtracted from satellite observation to yield actual emissions from the land portion, which in turn generates accurate soil moisture retrievals. Therefore, overestimation of soil moisture can often be corrected using concurrent water temperature data in the overall mitigation procedure. In recent years, several data sets of lake water temperature have become available, but their specifications and accuracy have rarely been investigated in the context of passive soil moisture remote sensing on a global scale. For this reason, three lake temperature products were evaluated against in-situ measurements from 2007 to 2011. The data sets include the lake surface water temperature (LSWT) from Global Observatory of Lake Responses to Environmental Change (GloboLakes), the Copernicus Global Land Operations Cryosphere and Water (C-GLOPS), as well as the lake mix-layer temperature (LMLT) from the European Centers for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA5 Land Reanalysis. GloboLakes, C-GLOPS, and ERA5 Land have overall comparable performance with Pearson correlations (R) of 0.87, 0.92 and 0.88 in comparison with in-situ measurements. LSWT products exhibit negative median biases of −0.27 K (GloboLakes) and −0.31 K (C-GLOPS), whereas the median bias of LMLT is 1.56 K. When mapped from their respective native resolutions to a common 9 km Equal-Area Scalable Earth (EASE) Grid 2.0 projection, similar relative performance was observed. LMLT and LSWT data are closer in performance over the 9 km grid cells that exhibit a small range of lake cover fractions (0.05–0.5). Despite comparable relative performance, ERA5 Land shows great advantages in spatial coverage and temporal resolution. In summary, an integrated evaluation on data accuracy, long-term availability, global coverage, temporal resolution, and regular forward processing with modest data latency led us to conclude that LMLT from the ERA5 Land Reanalysis product represents the most optimal path for use in the development of a long-term soil moisture product.

Runze Zhang↗
NASA NTRS2022

Maine Ecological Forecasting II: Identifying Forest Cover and Assessing Federally Endangered Atlantic Salmon Habitat in Maine Using Earth Observations

Major declines in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations have occurred alongside dam construction, shifting temperatures, and changing land use and land cover (LULC), restricting the last remaining wild population in the United States to Maine. In collaboration with the Maine Department of Marine Resources and the Downeast Salmon Federation, the NASA DEVELOP team utilized Earth observations to assess changes within critical salmon habitat. The team used the Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operation Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and National Land Cover Database (NLCD) to refine historical LULC maps from 1985 to 2021. The team also used elevation data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and IDRISI TerrSet Land Change Modeler to forecast LULC change to 2040. From Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) data, the team derived a time series, summer averages, and anomaly maps between 2000 and 2021. The team analyzed LST in relation to LULC classes, specifically forest cover type, and in-situ stream temperature from the Spatial Hydro-Ecological Decision System (EcoSHEDS). LULC trends from 1985 to 2021 revealed a net transition of coniferous forest to other classes, such as deciduous forest and developed land. The team found an association between warmer temperatures and a greater presence of developed and mixed forest classes per 10,000 acres across Maine. These visualizations and analyses will aid partners in identifying riparian locations with ideal or unfavorable habitat conditions to inform Atlantic salmon population recovery efforts.

Tony Bowman↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Impact of Satellite Atmospheric Motion Vectors in the GMAO GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation System

The impact of satellite-derived atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) on numerical weather forecasts is examined using the GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation system. Cycling data assimilation experiments, including twice-daily 5-day forecasts, are conducted for two 6-week periods during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season and 2010-2011Northern Hemisphere winter season. Results from a control experiment that includes all AMVs and other data types assimilated operationally in GEOS-5 are compared with those from an experiment in which the GEOS-5 AMVs (only) are replaced by ones produced by the U. S. Navy?s NAVDAS-AR atmospheric data assimilation system. The Navy AMVs are assimilated in their entirety as well as in various subset combinations. The primary objective of these experiments is to determine whether aspects of the NAVDAS-AR data selection and quality control procedure, especially the use of carefully averaged ("super-ob?) wind vectors and large volume of AMVs, explain the typically larger beneficial impact of these data in the Navy system as compared with most other forecast systems. Adjoint-based observation impact calculations are assessed and compared with traditional metrics such as forecast geopotential height anomaly correlations and observation-minus-forecast departures. Results so far indicate that that the greater number of NRL AMVs is primarily responsible for their larger impact, although superobing also appears to be beneficial. Map views show that the impact obtained from assimilation of the NRL AMVs is more uniformly beneficial, perhaps due to the averaging of individual observations in creating the super-obs. While the NRL AMVs have a much larger impact in GEOS-5 than do the control AMVs, their impact is still smaller than in the Navy forecast system, suggesting that the mix of observations may play an important role in modulating the impact of any one data type. At the same time, reducing the number of satellite radiances assimilated in GEOS-5 does not significantly alter the impact of the AMVs

Gelaro, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The application of automated operations at the Institutional Processing Center

The JPL Institutional and Mission Computing Division, Communications, Computing and Network Services Section, with its mission contractor, OAO Corporation, have for some time been applying automation to the operation of JPL's Information Processing Center (IPC). Automation does not come in one easy to use package. Automation for a data processing center is made up of many different software and hardware products supported by trained personnel. The IPC automation effort formally began with console automation, and has since spiraled out to include production scheduling, data entry, report distribution, online reporting, failure reporting and resolution, documentation, library storage, and operator and user education, while requiring the interaction of multi-vendor and locally developed software. To begin the process, automation goals are determined. Then a team including operations personnel is formed to research and evaluate available options. By acquiring knowledge of current products and those in development, taking an active role in industry organizations, and learning of other data center's experiences, a forecast can be developed as to what direction technology is moving. With IPC management's approval, an implementation plan is developed and resources identified to test or implement new systems. As an example, IPC's new automated data entry system was researched by Data Entry, Production Control, and Advance Planning personnel. A proposal was then submitted to management for review. A determination to implement the new system was made and elements/personnel involved with the initial planning performed the implementation. The final steps of the implementation were educating data entry personnel in the areas effected and procedural changes necessary to the successful operation of the new system.

Barr, Thomas H.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft and Satellite-Based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on H*Wind Analyses

Accurate observations of surface ocean vector winds (OVW) with high spatial and temporal resolution are required for understanding and predicting tropical cyclones. As NASA's QuikSCAT and Navy's WindSat operate beyond their design life, many members of the weather and climate science communities recognize the importance of developing new observational technologies and strategies to meet the essential need for OVW information to improve hurricane intensity and location forecasts. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative technology development which offers new and unique remotely sensed satellite observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is the only proven remote sensing technique for observing tropical cyclone (TC) ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates. The proposed HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer (STAR) technology. This sensor will operate over 4-7 GHz (C-band frequencies) where the required TC remote sensing physics has been validated by both SFMR and WindSat radiometers. The instrument is described in more detail in a paper by Jones et al. presented to the Tropical Meteorology Special Symposium at this AMS Annual Meeting. Simulated HIRAD passes through a simulation of hurricane Frances are being developed to demonstrate HIRAD estimation of surface wind speed over a wide swath in the presence of heavy rain. These are currently being used in "quick" OSSEs (Observing System Simulation Experiments) with H'Wind analyses as the discriminating tool. The H'Wind analysis, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic , Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, brings together wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms into an objective analysis of the distribution of wind speeds in a tropical cyclone. This product is designed to improve understanding of the extent and strength of the wind field, and to improve the assessment of hurricane intensity. See http://www.aoml.noaa._ov/hrd/data sub/wind.html. Observations have been simulated from both aircraft altitudes and space. The simulated flight patterns for the aircraft platform cases have been designed to duplicate the timing and flight patterns used in routine NOAA and USAF hurricane surveillance flights, and the spaceborne case simulates a TRMM orbit and altitude.

Miller, TImothy L.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The NASA Thunderstorm Observations and Research (ThOR) Mission: Lightning Mapping from Space to Improve the Short-term Forecasting of Severe Storms

The ThOR mission uses a lightning mapping sensor in geostationary Earth orbit to provide continuous observations of thunderstorm activity over the Americas and nearby oceans. The link between lightning activity and cloud updrafts is the basis for total lightning observations indicating the evolving convective intensification and decay of storms. ThOR offers a national operational demonstration of the utility of real-time total lightning mapping for earlier and more reliable identification of potentially severe and hazardous storms. Regional pilot projects have already demonstrated that the dominance in-cloud lightning and increasing in-cloud lash rates are known to precede severe weather at the surface by tens of minutes. ThOR is currently planned for launch in 2005 on a commercial or research satellite. Real-time data will be provided to selected NWS Weather Forecast Offices and National Centers (EMC/AWC/SPC) for evaluation.

Goodman, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Ecological Forecasting Project Management with Examples

Once scientists publish results of their projects and studies, all too often they end up on the shelf and are not otherwise used. The NASA Earth Science Division established its Applied Sciences Program (ASP) to apply research findings to help solve and manage real-world problems and needs. ASP-funded projects generally produce decision support systems for operational applications which are expected to last beyond the end of the NASA funding. Because of NASAs unique perspective of looking down on the Earth from space, ASP studies involve the use of remotely sensed information consisting of satellite data and imagery as well as information from sub-orbital platforms. ASP regularly solicits Earth science proposals that address one or more focus areas; disasters mitigation, ecological forecasting, health and air quality, and water resources. Reporting requirements for ASP-funded projects are different from those typical for research grants from NASA and other granting agencies, requiring management approaches different from other programs. This presentation will address the foregoing in some detail and give examples of three ASP-funded ecological forecasting projects that include: 1) the detection and survey of chimpanzee habitat in Africa from space, 2) harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the California Current System affecting aquaculture facilities and marine mammal populations, and 3) a call for the public to identify North America wildlife in Wisconsin using trail camera photos. Contact information to propose to ASP solicitations for those PIs interested is also provided.

Management↗
NASA NTRS2003

Diabatic Initialization of Mesoscale Models in the Southeastern United States: Can 0 to 12h Warm Season QPF be Improved?

It is well known that numerical warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts lack significant skill for numerous reasons. Some are related to the model--it may lack physical processes required to realistically simulate convection or the numerical algorithms and dynamics employed may not be adequate. Others are related to initialization-mesoscale features play an important role in convective initialization and atmospheric observation systems are incapable of properly depicting the three-dimensional stability structure at the mesoscale. The purpose of this study is to determine if a mesoscale model initialized with a diabatic initialization scheme can improve short-term (0 to 12h) warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Southeastern United States. The Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) developed at the Forecast System Laboratory is used to diabatically initialize the Pennsylvania State University/National center for Atmospheric Research (PSUNCAR) Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5). The SPORT Center runs LAPS operationally on an hourly cycle to produce analyses on a 15 km covering the eastern 2/3 of the United States. The 20 km National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Rapid Update Cycle analyses are used for the background fields. Standard observational data are acquired from MADIS with GOES/CRAFT Nexrad data acquired from in-house feeds. The MM5 is configured on a 140 x 140 12 km grid centered on Huntsville Alabama. Preliminary results indicate that MM5 runs initialized with LAPS produce improved 6 and 12h QPF threat scores compared with those initialized with the NCEP RUC.

Lapenta, William M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Wake Turbulence Mitigation for Departures (WTMD) Prototype System - Software Design Document

This document describes the software design of a prototype Wake Turbulence Mitigation for Departures (WTMD) system that was evaluated in shadow mode operation at the Saint Louis (KSTL) and Houston (KIAH) airports. This document describes the software that provides the system framework, communications, user displays, and hosts the Wind Forecasting Algorithm (WFA) software developed by the M.I.T. Lincoln Laboratory (MIT-LL). The WFA algorithms and software are described in a separate document produced by MIT-LL.

Sturdy, James L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

DC and Structured Electric Fields Observed on the C/NOFS Satellite and Their Association with Longitude, Plasma Density, and Solar Activity

Observations of DC electric fields and associated E x B plasma drifts gathered by the Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) on the Air Force Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite are presented. We show statistical averages of the vector fields and resulting E x B plasma flows for the first three years of operations as a function of season, longitude, local time, and Fl 0.7 conditions. Magnetic field data from the VEFI science magnetometer are used to compute the plasma flows. Although typically displaying eastward and outward-directed fields during the day and westward and downward-directed fields at night, the data from DC electric field detector often reveal variations from this pattern that depend on longitude, solar activity, and plasma density. Clear "wave-4" tidal effects in both electric field components have been detected and will be presented. Zonal plasma drifts show a marked variation with solar activity and may be used as a proxy for neutral winds at night. Evidence for pre-reversal enhancements in the meridional drifts that depend on solar activity is present for some longitudes, and are corroborated by clear evidence in the plasma density data that the spacecraft journeyed below the F-peak during evenings when the rise in the ionosphere is most pronounced. In addition to DC electric fields, the data reveal considerable electric field structures at large scales (approx 100's of km) that are usually confined to the nightside. Although such electric field structures are typically associated with plasma density depletions and structures, what is surprising is the number of cases in which large amplitude, structured DC electric fields are observed without a significant plasma density counterpart structure, including their appearance at times when the ambient plasma density appears relatively quiescent. We investigate the mapping of structured electric fields along magnetic field lines from distant locations and consider tropospheric thunderstorm sources to explain some of the observations. The dependence of the structuring on season and solar activity will be reported and discussed.

Pfaff, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2011

Modeling the Effects of Ice Accretion on the Low Pressure Compressor and the Overall Turbofan Engine System Performance

The focus of this study is on utilizing a mean line compressor flow analysis code coupled to an engine system thermodynamic code, to estimate the effects of ice accretion on the low pressure compressor, and quantifying its effects on the engine system throughout a notional flight trajectory. In this paper a temperature range in which engine icing would occur was assumed. This provided a mechanism to locate potential component icing sites and allow the computational tools to add blockages due to ice accretion in a parametric fashion. Ultimately the location and level of blockage due to icing would be provided by an ice accretion code. To proceed, an engine system modeling code and a mean line compressor flow analysis code were utilized to calculate the flow conditions in the fan-core and low pressure compressor and to identify potential locations within the compressor where ice may accrete. In this study, an "additional blockage" due to the accretion of ice on the metal surfaces, has been added to the baseline aerodynamic blockage due to boundary layer, as well as the blade metal blockage. Once the potential locations of ice accretion are identified, the levels of additional blockage due to accretion were parametrically varied to estimate the effects on the low pressure compressor blade row performance operating within the engine system environment. This study includes detailed analysis of compressor and engine performance during cruise and descent operating conditions at several altitudes within the notional flight trajectory. The purpose of this effort is to develop the computer codes to provide a predictive capability to forecast the onset of engine icing events, such that they could ultimately help in the avoidance of these events.

Veres, Joseph P.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Near Real Time Tools for ISS Plasma Science and Engineering Applications

The International Space Station (ISS) program utilizes a plasma environment forecast for estimating electrical charging hazards for crews during extravehicular activity (EVA). The process uses ionospheric electron density (Ne) and temperature (Te) measurements from the ISS Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) instrument suite with the assumption that the plasma conditions will remain constant for one to fourteen days with a low probability for a space weather event which would significantly change the environment before an EVA. FPMU data is typically not available during EVA's, therefore, the most recent FPMU data available for characterizing the state of the ionosphere during EVA is typically a day or two before the start of an EVA or after the EVA has been completed. Three near real time space weather tools under development for ISS applications are described here including: (a) Ne from ground based ionosonde measurements of foF2 (b) Ne from near real time satellite radio occultation measurements of electron density profiles (c) Ne, Te from a physics based ionosphere model These applications are used to characterize the ISS space plasma environment during EVA periods when FPMU data is not available, monitor for large changes in ionosphere density that could render the ionosphere forecast and plasma hazard assessment invalid, and validate the "persistence of conditions" forecast assumption. In addition, the tools are useful for providing space environment input to science payloads on ISS and anomaly investigations during periods the FPMU is not operating.

Minow, Joseph I.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Benefits Analysis of Multi-Center Dynamic Weather Routes

Dynamic weather routes are flight plan corrections that can provide airborne flights more than user-specified minutes of flying-time savings, compared to their current flight plan. These routes are computed from the aircraft's current location to a flight plan fix downstream (within a predefined limit region), while avoiding forecasted convective weather regions. The Dynamic Weather Routes automation has been continuously running with live air traffic data for a field evaluation at the American Airlines Integrated Operations Center in Fort Worth, TX since July 31, 2012, where flights within the Fort Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center are evaluated for time savings. This paper extends the methodology to all Centers in United States and presents benefits analysis of Dynamic Weather Routes automation, if it was implemented in multiple airspace Centers individually and concurrently. The current computation of dynamic weather routes requires a limit rectangle so that a downstream capture fix can be selected, preventing very large route changes spanning several Centers. In this paper, first, a method of computing a limit polygon (as opposed to a rectangle used for Fort Worth Center) is described for each of the 20 Centers in the National Airspace System. The Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool, a nationwide simulation and analysis tool, is used for this purpose. After a comparison of results with the Center-based Dynamic Weather Routes automation in Fort Worth Center, results are presented for 11 Centers in the contiguous United States. These Centers are generally most impacted by convective weather. A breakdown of individual Center and airline savings is presented and the results indicate an overall average savings of about 10 minutes of flying time are obtained per flight.

NAS based Benefits Analysis↗