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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

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NASA NTRS1999

CFD Data Generation Process for Nonlinear Loads

This paper discusses the development of a process to generate a CFD database for the non-linear loads process capability for critical loads evaluation at Boeing Long Beach. The CFD simulations were performed for wing/body configurations at high angles of attack and Reynolds numbers with transonic and elastic deflection effects. Convergence criteria had to be tailored for loads applications rather than the usual drag performance. The time-accurate approach was subsequently adopted in order to improve convergence and model possible unsteadiness in the flowfield. In addition, uncertainty issues relating to the turbulence model and grid resolution in areas of high vortical flows were addressed and investigated for one of the cases.

Arslan, Alan↗

NASA NTRS2001

Stagnation Flow in Streamer Boundaries

Flow tubes adjacent to closed magnetic field lines on the boundaries of streamers can have spreading factors which change rapidly with height. Numerical models in this thin layer are subject to uncertainties. Here we use an analytic model of magnetically closed and adjacent open regions to compute the spreading factor close to the closed field lines and the flow on the open field lines. We axe able to recover the shape of the closed field region, or helmet, and show the evolution of the helmet under slowly increasing temperature. We also show why and when stagnation flow can occur in the vicinity of the cusp at the top of the helmet.

Suess, Steven T.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A panel method study of vortex sheets with special emphasis on sheets of axisymmetric geometry

The self induced evolution of a vortex sheet was simulated by modeling the sheet using an integration of discrete elements of vorticity. Replacing small sections of a vortex sheet by flat panels of constant vorticity is found to reproduce more accurately the initial conditions for the Lagrangian simulation technique than replacement by point vortices. The flat panel method for the vortex sheet was then extended to model axisymmetric vortex sheets. The local and far field velocities induced by the axisymmetric panels were obtained using matched asymptotic analysis, and some of the uncertainties involved in other models of the axisymmetric vortex sheet have been eliminated. One important result of this analysis is the determination of the proper choice of core size for a circular vortex filament which may replace a section of an axisymmetric vortex sheet. Roll-up of both two dimensional and axisymmetric vortex sheets was computed using the panel methods developed in the report.

Sugioka, I.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Observing the earth radiation budget from satellites - Past, present, and a look to the future

Satellite measurements of the radiative exchange between the planet earth and space have been the objective of many experiments since the beginning of the space age in the late 1950's. The on-going mission of the Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) experiments has been and will be to consider flight hardware, data handling and scientific analysis methods in a single design strategy. Research and development on observational data has produced an analysis model of errors associated with ERB measurement systems on polar satellites. Results show that the variability of reflected solar radiation from changing meteorology dominates measurement uncertainties. As an application, model calculations demonstrate that measurement requirements for the verification of climate models may be satisfied with observations from one polar satellite, provided there is information on diurnal variations of the radiation budget from the ERBE mission.

House, F. B.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Predicting the Mineral Composition of Dust Aerosols: Model Evaluation and Identification of Key Processes with Observations - Part 2

A global compilation of nearly sixty measurement studies is used to evaluate two methods of simulating the mineral composition of dust aerosols in an Earth system model. Both methods are based upon a Mean Mineralogical Table (MMT) that relates the soil mineral fractions to a global atlas of arid soil type. The Soil Mineral Fraction (SMF) method assumes that the aerosol mineral fractions match the fractions of the soil. The MMT is based upon soil measurements after wet sieving, a process that destroys aggregates of soil particles that would have been emitted from the original, undisturbed soil. The second method approximately reconstructs the emitted aggregates. This model is referred to as the Aerosol Mineral Fraction (AMF) method because the mineral fractions of the aerosols differ from those of the wet-sieved parent soil, partly due to reaggregation. The AMF method remedies some of the deficiencies of the SMF method in comparison to observations. Only the AMF method exhibits phyllosilicate mass at silt sizes, where they are abundant according to observations. In addition, the AMF quartz fraction of silt particles is in better agreement with measured values, in contrast to the overestimated SMF fraction. Measurements at distinct clay and silt particle sizes are shown to be more useful for evaluation of the models, in contrast to the sum over all particles sizes that is susceptible to compensating errors, as illustrated by the SMF experiment. Model errors suggest that allocation of the emitted silt fraction of each mineral into the corresponding transported size categories is an important remaining source of uncertainty. Evaluation of both models and the MMT is hindered by the limited number of size-resolved measurements of mineral content that sparsely sample aerosols from the major dust sources. The importance of climate processes dependent upon aerosol mineral composition shows the need for global and routine mineral measurements.

aerosols↗

NASA NTRS2016

Near-Infrared Spectroscopy of the Y0 WISEP J173835.52+273258.9 and the Y1 WISE J035000.32-565830.2: the Importance of Non-Equilibrium Chemistry

We present new near-infrared spectra, obtained at Gemini Observatory, for two Y dwarfs: WISE J035000.32−565830.2 (W0350) and WISEP J173835.52+273258.9 (W1738). A FLAMINGOS-2 R = 540 spectrum was obtained for W0350, covering 1.0 < λ micrometer < 1.7, and a cross-dispersed GNIRS R = 2800 spectrum was obtained for W1738, covering 0.993 - 1.087 micrometer, 1.191 - 1.305 micrometer, 1.589 - 1.631 micrometer, and 1.985 - 2.175 micrometer, in four orders. We also present revised Y JH photometry for W1738, using new NIRI Y and J imaging, and a re-analysis of the previously published NIRI H band images. We compare these data, together with previously published data for late-T and Y dwarfs, to cloud-free models of solar metallicity, calculated both in chemical equilibrium and with disequilibrium driven by vertical transport. We find that for the Y dwarfs the non-equilibrium models reproduce the near-infrared data better than the equilibrium models. The remaining discrepancies suggest that fine-tuning the CH4/CO and NH3/N2 balance is needed. Improved trigonometric parallaxes would improve the analysis. Despite the uncertainties and discrepancies, the models reproduce the observed near-infrared spectra well. We find that for the Y0, W1738, T(sub eff) = 425 +/- 25K and log g = 4.0 +/- 0.25, and for the Y1, W0350, T(sub eff) = 350 +/- 25K and log g = 4.0 +/- 0.25. W1738 may be metal-rich. Based on evolutionary models, these temperatures and gravities correspond to a mass range for both Y dwarfs of 3 - 9 Jupiter masses, with W0350 being a cooler, slightly older, version of W1738; the age of W0350 is 0.3 - 3 Gyr, and the age of W1738 is 0.15 - 1 Gyr.

two Y dwarfs↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Calibration of Expensive Models using Efficiently Trained Surrogates

Calibration of computational models in the presence of uncertainty is often cast as a Bayesian inference problem and solved via sampling methods, e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo. When the computational model is expensive, this task becomes intractable due to the large number of samples required to accurately estimate the posterior distribution of the calibration parameters. A popular solution to this problem is to use machine learning to develop a faster-to-evaluate, lower-fidelity substitute for the original model to serve as a surrogate while solving the inference problem. Although considered an offline cost, generating training data to construct this surrogate model can still be an expensive task in practice. An active learning algorithm is presented that focuses training on improving surrogate accuracy specifically in and around the bulk of the posterior distribution, as this is where the model is exercised during calibration. Candidate samples are drawn from families of distributions related to an approximation of the posterior. The sample maximizing predictive variance is then selected for evaluation by the original computational model, yielding a label for the training point. Iterating this approach increases efficiency relative to space filling designs (e.g., Latin hypercube sampling) by avoiding low probability points. Practical considerations are discussed, including the benefits of using a sequential Monte Carlo sampling approach, convergence heuristics, and the importance of both exploration and exploitation given that the true posterior is unknown a priori.

uncertainty quantification↗

NASA NTRS2012

Probability of Causation for Space Radiation Carcinogenesis Following International Space Station, Near Earth Asteroid, and Mars Missions

Cancer risk is an important concern for International Space Station (ISS) missions and future exploration missions. An important question concerns the likelihood of a causal association between a crew members radiation exposure and the occurrence of cancer. The probability of causation (PC), also denoted as attributable risk, is used to make such an estimate. This report summarizes the NASA model of space radiation cancer risks and uncertainties, including improvements to represent uncertainties in tissue-specific cancer incidence models for never-smokers and the U.S. average population. We report on tissue-specific cancer incidence estimates and PC for different post-mission times for ISS and exploration missions. An important conclusion from our analysis is that the NASA policy to limit the risk of exposure-induced death to 3% at the 95% confidence level largely ensures that estimates of the PC for most cancer types would not reach a level of significance. Reducing uncertainties through radiobiological research remains the most efficient method to extend mission length and establish effective mitigators for cancer risks. Efforts to establish biomarkers of space radiation-induced tumors and to estimate PC for rarer tumor types are briefly discussed.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NASA NTRS1977

The spectral energy distribution of Zeta Puppis and HD 50896

The ultraviolet spectral energy distribution of the O5f star Zeta Pup and the WN5 star HD 50896 are derived from OAO-2 observations with the calibration of Bless, Code, and Fairchild (1976). An estimate of the interstellar reddening (0.12 magnitude) of the Wolf-Rayet star is determined from the size of the characteristic interstellar extinction bump at 4.6 inverse microns. After correction for extinction, both stars show a flat energy distribution in the ultraviolet. The distribution of HD 50896 from 1100 A to 2 microns is in good agreement with results of extended model atmospheres, but some uncertainty remains because of the interstellar-extinction correction. The absolute energy distribution of Zeta Pup is fitted by a 42,000-K plane-parallel model if the model's flux is adjusted for the effects of electron scattering in the stellar wind and for UV line blanketing that was determined empirically from high-resolution Copernicus satellite observations. To achieve this fit, it is necessary to push both the spectroscopically determined temperature and the ultraviolet calibration to the limits of their probable errors.

Holm, A. V.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Monitoring Orbital Precession of EO-1 Hyperion With Three Atmospheric Correction Models in the Libya-4 PICS

Spaceborne spectrometers require spectral-temporal stability characterization to aid in validation of derived data products. Earth Observation 1 (EO-1) began orbital precession in 2011 after exhausting onboard fuel resources. In the Libya-4 pseudo-invariant calibration site (PICS), this resulted in a progressive shift from a mean local equatorial crossing time of approximately10:00 A.M. in 2011 to approximately 8:30 A.M. in late 2015. Here, we studied precession impacts to Hyperion surface reflectance products using three atmospheric correction approaches from 2004 to 2015. Combined difference estimates of surface reflectance were less than 5 percent in the visible near infrared (VNIR) and less than 10 percent for most of the shortwave infrared (SWIR). Combined coefficient of variation estimates in the VNIR ranged from 0.025 to 0.095, and in the SWIR it ranged from 0.025 to 0.06, excluding bands near atmospheric absorption features. Reflectances produced with different atmospheric models were correlated (R squared) in VNIR from 0.25 to 0.94 and in SWIR from 0.12 to 0.88 (p value (calculated probability) less than 0.01). The uncertainties in all the models increased with a terrain slope up to 15 degrees and selecting dune flats could reduce errors. We conclude that these data remain a valuable resource over this period for sensor intercalibration despite orbital decay.

Neigh, Christopher S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Earth system modeling: can we stay ahead of what's actually happening?

Over the last forty years, Earth System Models have become more and more comprehensive and detailed. They have assimilated previously independent modeling efforts in ocean circulation, atmospheric composition, the stratosphere, land surface, and the cryosphere, and are today demonstrably more skillful than earlier efforts. Yet the structural uncertainty in the latest model projections is actually increasing. Meanwhile, impacts of climate change on, for instance, wildfires, tropical cyclones and sea level, appear to be increasing faster than we have been able to predict. I will address some of the current issues at the bleeding edges of model development and the continuing importance of model evaluation.

Gavin A Schmidt↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Toward Improving the Assimilation of IASI and CrIS Radiances Over Land Into the NASA GEOS: LST Inversion and Validation

Assimilating surface-sensitive radiances over land is still challenging for both infrared (IR) and microwave (WV) essentially because of the large uncertainties of the land physical surface emissivity model used in the CRTM and the uncertainties of land surface state properties. Currently very few IR radiances are assimilated over land in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). Large number of radiances are rejected by the emissivity sensitivity check as well as the Cloud detection check. This study focuses on enhancing the assimilation of Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) over land in the GEOS forecasting and data assimilation framework. To reach this goal, the Land surface Temperature (LST) is first inverted using IR radiances from IASI and CrIS selected channels to use it as surface boundary parameter for the assimilation of the rest of IASI and CrIS surface-sensitive channels. This work will present a full assessment of the quality of this LST by comparing it and its spatio-temporal variability to LST predicted by the GEOS model. The impacts on the quality of the resulting analysis and subsequent forecast will also be discussed.

Niama Boukachaba↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Combined Very Large Telescope and Gemini Study of the Atmosphere of the Directly Imaged Planet, Beta Pictoris b

We analyze new/archival VLT/NaCo and Gemini/NICI high-contrast imaging of the young, self-luminous planet Beta Pictoris b in seven near-to-mid IR photometric filters, using advanced image processing methods to achieve high signal-to-noise, high precision measurements. While Beta Pic b's near-IR colors mimic those of a standard, cloudy early-to-mid L dwarf, it is overluminous in the mid-infrared compared to the field L/T dwarf sequence. Few substellar/planet-mass objects-i.e., κ And b and 1RXJ 1609B-match Beta Pic b's JHKsL photometry and its 3.1 micron and 5 micron photometry are particularly difficult to reproduce. Atmosphere models adopting cloud prescriptions and large (approx. 60 micron)dust grains fail to reproduce the Beta Pic b spectrum. However, models incorporating thick clouds similar to those found forHR8799 bcde, but also with small (a fewmicrons) modal particle sizes, yield fits consistent with the data within the uncertainties. Assuming solar abundance models, thick clouds, and small dust particles (a = 4 micron), we derive atmosphere parameters of log(g) = 3.8 +/- 0.2 and Teff = 1575-1650 K, an inferred mass of 7+4 −3 MJ, and a luminosity of log(L/L) approx. −3.80 +/- 0.02. The best-estimated planet radius, is approx. equal to 1.65 +/- 0.06 RJ, is near the upper end of allowable planet radii for hot-start models given the host star's age and likely reflects challenges constructing accurate atmospheric models. Alternatively, these radii are comfortably consistent with hot-start model predictions if Beta Pic b is younger than is approx. equal to 7 Myr, consistent with a late formation well after its host star's birth approx. 12+8 −4 Myr ago.

overluminous↗

NASA NTRS1987

Algorithms for adaptive control of two-arm flexible manipulators under uncertainty

A nonlinear extension of model reference adaptive control (MRAC) technique is used to guide a double arm nonlinearizable robot manipulator with flexible links, driven by actuators collocated with joints subject to uncertain payload and inertia. The objective is to track a given simple linear and rigid but compatible dynamical model in real, possible stipulated time and within stipulated degree of accuracy of convergence while avoiding collision of the arms. The objective is attained by a specified signal adaptive feedback controller and by adaptive laws, both given in closed form. A case of 4 DOF manipulator illustrates the technique.

Skowronski, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Calibration of a helium-cooled infrared spatial radiometer and grating spectrometer

Methods used by the Space Dynamics Laboratory of Utah State University (SDL/USU) to calibrate infrared sensors are described, using the Infrared Background Signature Survey (IBSS) spatial radiometer and grating spectrometer as examples. A calibration equation and a radiometric model are given for each sensor to describe their responsivity in terms of individual radiometric parameters. The calibration equation terms include dark offset, linearity, absolute responsivity, and measurement uncertainty, and the radiometric model domains include spatial, spectral, and temporal domains. A portable calibration facility, designed and fabricated by SDL/USU, provided collimated, extended, diffuse scatter, and Jones sources in a single cryogenic dewar. This multi-function calibrator allowed calibration personnel to complete a full calibration of the IBSS infrared radiometer and spectrometer in two 15-day periods. A calibration data system was developed to control and monitor the calibration facility, and to record and analyze sensor data.

Jacobsen, Larry↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Influence of Ozone Precursor Emissions from Four World Regions on Tropospheric Composition and Radiative Climate Forcing

Ozone (O3) precursor emissions influence regional and global climate and air quality through changes in tropospheric O3 and oxidants, which also influence methane (CH4) and sulfate aerosols (SO4 (sup 2-)). We examine changes in the tropospheric composition of O3, CH4, SO4 (sup 2-) and global net radiative forcing (RF) for 20% reductions in global CH4 burden and in anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions (NOx, NMVOC, and CO) from four regions (East Asia, Europe and Northern Africa, North America, and South Asia) using the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, assessing uncertainty (mean plus or minus 1 standard deviation) across multiple CTMs. We evaluate steady state O3 responses, including long-term feedbacks via CH4. With a radiative transfer model that includes greenhouse gases and the aerosol direct effect, we find that regional NOx reductions produce global, annually averaged positive net RFs (0.2 plus or minus 0.6 to 1.7 2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg N yr(sup -1), with some variation among models. Negative net RFs result from reductions in global CH4 (-162.6 plus or minus 2 mWm(sup -2) for a change from 1760 to 1408 ppbv CH4) and regional NMVOC (-0.4 plus or minus 0.2 to 0.7 plus or minus 0.2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg C yr(sup -1) and CO emissions (-0.13 plus or minus 0.02 to -0.15 plus or minus 0.02 mWm(sup-2)/Tg CO yr(sup-1). Including the effect of O3 on CO2 uptake by vegetation likely makes these net RFs more negative by -1.9 to- 5.2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg N yr(sup -1), -0.2 to -0.7 mWm(sup -2)/Tg C yr(sup -1), and -0.02 to -0.05 mWm(sup -2)/ Tg CO yr(sup -1). Net RF impacts reflect the distribution of concentration changes, where RF is affected locally by changes in SO4 (sup -2), regionally to hemispherically by O3, and globally by CH4. Global annual average SO4 2 responses to oxidant changes range from 0.4 plus or minus 2.6 to -1.9 plus or minus 1.3 Gg for NOx reductions, 0.1 plus or minus 1.2 to -0.9 plus or minus 0.8 Gg for NMVOC reductions, and -0.09 plus or minus 0.5 to -0.9 plus or minus 0.8 Gg for CO reductions, suggesting additional research is needed. The 100-year global warming potentials (GWP(sub 100)) are calculated for the global CH4 reduction (20.9 plus or minus 3.7 without stratospheric O3 or water vapor, 24.2 plus or minus 4.2 including those components), and for the regional NOx, NMVOC, and CO reductions (18.7 plus or minus 25.9 to 1.9 plus or minus 8.7 for NOx, 4.8 plus or minus 1.7 to 8.3 plus or minus 1.9 for NMVOC, and 1.5 plus or minus 0.4 to 1.7 plus or minus 0.5 for CO). Variation in GWP(sub 100) for NOx, NMVOC, and CO suggests that regionally specific GWPs may be necessary and could support the inclusion of O3 precursors in future policies that address air quality and climate change simultaneously. Both global net RF and GWP100 are more sensitive to NOx and NMVOC reductions from South Asia than the other three regions.

ozone↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Derivation of Integrated Load Distributions from Resampled Computational Data

Principal component analysis (PCA) has been the center of many surrogate models used to characterize fluid flows in recent years. However, little work has been done to character- ize the uncertainty in the PCA transform itself and its effect on derived surrogate models. To explore the uncertainty, a typical interpolated surrogate model is constructed for a represen- tative aerodynamic body from computational data. The computational data is then resampled to explore the robustness of the PCA transformation. The variations of the model predictions during this resampling are analyzed to get a measure of confidence in the PCA transformation, which is then applied to the interpolated surrogate model to get uncertainty on integrated force predictions. An initial test case has been explored with promising results.

Principal Component Analysis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Derivation of Integrated Load Distributions from Resampled Computational Data

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗