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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,135 records · Page 63
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Keck/NIRC2 L’-band Imaging of Jovian-mass Accreting Protoplanets around PDS 70

We present L’-band imaging of the PDS 70 planetary system with Keck/NIRC2 using the new infrared pyramid wave front sensor. We detected both PDS 70 b and c in our images, as well as the front rim of the circumstellar disk. After subtracting off a model of the disk, we measured the astrometry and photometry of both planets. Placing priors based on the dynamics of the system, we estimated PDS 70 b to have a semimajor axis of 20{sub −4}{sup +3} au and PDS 70 c to have a semimajor axis of 34{sub −6}{sup +12} au (95% credible interval). We fit the spectral energy distribution (SED) of both planets. For PDS 70 b, we were able to place better constraints on the red half of its SED than previous studies and inferred the radius of the photosphere to be 2–3 R {sub Jup}. The SED of PDS 70 c is less well constrained, with a range of total luminosities spanning an order of magnitude. With our inferred radii and luminosities, we used evolutionary models of accreting protoplanets to derive a mass of PDS 70 b between 2 and 4 M {sub Jup} and a mean mass accretion rate between 3 × 10{sup −7} and 8 × 10{sup −7} M {sub Jup}/yr. For PDS 70 c, we computed a mass between 1 and 3 M {sub Jup} and mean mass accretion rate between 1 × 10{sup −7} and 5 × 10{sup −7} M {sub Jup}/yr. The mass accretion rates imply dust accretion timescales short enough to hide strong molecular absorption features in both planets’ SEDs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Revisiting Fenton Hill Phase I reservoir creation and stimulation mechanisms through the GTO code comparison effort

A series of experiments performed at the Fenton Hill hot dry rock site after stage 2 drilling of Phase I reservoir provided intriguing field observations on the reservoir’s responses to injection and venting under various conditions. Two teams participating in the US DOE Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO)’s Code Comparison Study (CCS) used different numerical codes to model these five experiments with the objective of inferring the hydraulic stimulation mechanism involved. The codes used by the two teams are based on different numerical principles, and the assumptions made were also different, due to intrinsic limitations in the codes and the modelers’ personal interpretations of the field observations. Both sets of models were able to produce the most important field observations and both found that it was the combination of the vertical gradient of the fracture opening pressure, injection volume, and the use/absence of proppant that yielded the different outcomes of the five experiments.

Fu, Pengcheng↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ecosystem Water‐Saving Timescale Varies Spatially With Typical Drydown Length

Abstract Stomatal optimization theory is a commonly used framework for modeling how plants regulate transpiration in response to the environment. Most stomatal optimization models assume that plants instantaneously optimize a reward function such as carbon gain. However, plants are expected to optimize over longer timescales given the rapid environmental variability they encounter. There are currently no observational constraints on these timescales. Here, a new stomatal model is developed and is used to analyze the timescales over which stomatal closure is optimized. The proposed model assumes plants maximize carbon gain subject to the constraint that they cannot draw down soil moisture below a critical value. The reward is integrated over time, after being weighted by a discount factor that represents the timescale ( τ ) that a plant considers when optimizing stomatal conductance to save water. The model is simple enough to be analytically solvable, which allows the value of τ to be inferred from observations of stomatal behavior under known environmental conditions. The model is fitted to eddy covariance data in a range of ecosystems, finding the value of τ that best predicts the dynamics of evapotranspiration at each site. Across 82 sites, the climate metrics with the strongest correlation to τ are measures of the average number of dry days between rainfall events. Values of τ are similar in magnitude to the longest such dry period encountered in an average year. The results here shed light on which climate characteristics shape spatial variations in ecosystem‐level water use strategy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Greenhouse Gas Source Attribution: Measurements Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification

In this project we have developed atmospheric measurement capabilities and a suite of atmospheric modeling and analysis tools that are well suited for verifying emissions of green- house gases (GHGs) on an urban-through-regional scale. We have for the first time applied the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate atmospheric CO 2 . This will allow for the examination of regional-scale transport and distribution of CO 2 along with air pollutants traditionally studied using CMAQ at relatively high spatial and temporal resolution with the goal of leveraging emissions verification efforts for both air quality and climate. We have developed a bias-enhanced Bayesian inference approach that can remedy the well-known problem of transport model errors in atmospheric CO 2 inversions. We have tested the approach using data and model outputs from the TransCom3 global CO 2 inversion comparison project. We have also performed two prototyping studies on inversion approaches in the generalized convection-diffusion context. One of these studies employed Polynomial Chaos Expansion to accelerate the evaluation of a regional transport model and enable efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior for Bayesian inference. The other approach uses de- terministic inversion of a convection-diffusion-reaction system in the presence of uncertainty. These approaches should, in principle, be applicable to realistic atmospheric problems with moderate adaptation. We outline a regional greenhouse gas source inference system that integrates (1) two ap- proaches of atmospheric dispersion simulation and (2) a class of Bayesian inference and un- certainty quantification algorithms. We use two different and complementary approaches to simulate atmospheric dispersion. Specifically, we use a Eulerian chemical transport model CMAQ and a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model - FLEXPART-WRF. These two models share the same WRF assimilated meteorology fields, making it possible to perform a hybrid simulation, in which the Eulerian model (CMAQ) can be used to compute the initial condi- tion needed by the Lagrangian model, while the source-receptor relationships for a large state vector can be efficiently computed using the Lagrangian model in its backward mode. In ad- dition, CMAQ has a complete treatment of atmospheric chemistry of a suite of traditional air pollutants, many of which could help attribute GHGs from different sources. The inference of emissions sources using atmospheric observations is cast as a Bayesian model calibration problem, which is solved using a variety of Bayesian techniques, such as the bias-enhanced Bayesian inference algorithm, which accounts for the intrinsic model deficiency, Polynomial Chaos Expansion to accelerate model evaluation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, and Karhunen-Lo %60 eve (KL) Expansion to reduce the dimensionality of the state space. We have established an atmospheric measurement site in Livermore, CA and are collect- ing continuous measurements of CO 2 , CH 4 and other species that are typically co-emitted with these GHGs. Measurements of co-emitted species can assist in attributing the GHGs to different emissions sectors. Automatic calibrations using traceable standards are performed routinely for the gas-phase measurements. We are also collecting standard meteorological data at the Livermore site as well as planetary boundary height measurements using a ceilometer. The location of the measurement site is well suited to sample air transported between the San Francisco Bay area and the California Central Valley.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neutron star mass estimates from gamma-ray eclipses in spider millisecond pulsar binaries

Reliable neutron star mass measurements are key to determining the equation of state of cold nuclear matter, but such measurements are rare. Black widows and redbacks are compact binaries consisting of millisecond pulsars and semi-degenerate companion stars. Spectroscopy of the optically bright companions can determine their radial velocities, providing inclination-dependent pulsar mass estimates. Although inclinations can be inferred from subtle features in optical light curves, such estimates may be systematically biased due to incomplete heating models and poorly understood variability. Using data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope, we have searched for gamma-ray eclipses from 49 spider systems, discovering significant eclipses in 7 systems, including the prototypical black widow PSR B1957+20. Gamma-ray eclipses require direct occultation of the pulsar by the companion, and so the detection, or significant exclusion, of a gamma-ray eclipse strictly limits the binary inclination angle, providing new robust, model-independent pulsar mass constraints. For PSR B1957+20, the eclipse implies a much lighter pulsar (1.81 ± 0.07 solar masses) than inferred from optical light curve modelling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

An efficient Bayesian inversion of a geothermal prospect using a multivariate adaptive regression spline method

In this study, an efficient Bayesian framework equipped with a multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) technique is developed to alleviate computational burdens encountered in a conventional Bayesian inversion of a geothermal prospect. Fast MARS models are developed from training dataset generated by CPU-intensive hydrothermal models and used as surrogate of high-fidelity physical models in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. This Bayesian inference with MARS-enabled MCMC method is used to reduce prior estimates of uncertainty in structural or characteristic hydrothermal flow parameters of the model to posterior distributions. A geothermal prospect near Superstition Mountain in Imperial County of California in USA is used to illustrate the proposed framework and demonstrate the computational efficiency of MARS-based Bayesian inversion. The developed MARS models are also used to efficiently drive calculation of Sobol’ total sensitivity indices. Furthermore, only top sensitive parameters are included in Bayesian inference to further improve the computational efficiency of inversion. Sensitivity analysis also confirms that water circulation through high permeable structures, rather than heat conduction through impermeable granite, is the primary heat transfer method. The presented framework is demonstrated an efficient tool to update knowledge of geothermal prospects by inversing field data. Although only thermal data is used in this study, other type of data, such as flow and transport observations, can be jointly used in this method for underground hydrocarbon reservoirs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-J-161: Inverse Problems for Optical Parameters in Laser Induced Thermal Therapy

Purpose: Magnetic resonance-guided laser-induced thermal therapy (MRgLITT) is investigated as a neurosurgical intervention for oncological applications throughout the body by active post market studies. Real-time MR temperature imaging is used to monitor ablative thermal delivery in the clinic. Additionally, brain MRgLITT could improve through effective planning for laser fiber's placement. Mathematical bioheat models have been extensively investigated but require reliable patient specific physical parameter data, e.g. optical parameters. This abstract applies an inverse problem algorithm to characterize optical parameter data obtained from previous MRgLITT interventions. Methods: The implemented inverse problem has three primary components: a parameter-space search algorithm, a physics model, and training data. First, the parameter-space search algorithm uses a gradient-based quasi-Newton method to optimize the effective optical attenuation coefficient, μ-eff. A parameter reduction reduces the amount of optical parameter-space the algorithm must search. Second, the physics model is a simplified bioheat model for homogeneous tissue where closed-form Green's functions represent the exact solution. Third, the training data was temperature imaging data from 23 MRgLITT oncological brain ablations (980 nm wavelength) from seven different patients. Results: To three significant figures, the descriptive statistics for μ-eff were 1470 m{sup −1} mean, 1360 m{sup −1} median, 369 m{sup −1} standard deviation, 933 m{sup −1} minimum and 2260 m{sup −1} maximum. The standard deviation normalized by the mean was 25.0%. The inverse problem took <30 minutes to optimize all 23 datasets. Conclusion: As expected, the inferred average is biased by underlying physics model. However, the standard deviation normalized by the mean is smaller than literature values and indicates an increased precision in the characterization of the optical parameters needed to plan MRgLITT procedures. This investigation demonstrates the potential for the optimization and validation of more sophisticated bioheat models that incorporate the uncertainty of the data into the predictions, e.g. stochastic finite element methods.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

An optimization-based approach to parameter learning for fractional type nonlocal models

Nonlocal operators of fractional type are a popular modeling choice for applications that do not adhere to classical diffusive behavior; however, one major challenge in nonlocal simulations is the selection of model parameters. In this study we propose an optimization-based approach to parameter identification for fractional models with an optional truncation radius. We formulate the inference problem as an optimal control problem where the objective is to minimize the discrepancy between observed data and an approximate solution of the model, and the control variables are the fractional order and the truncation length. For the numerical solution of the minimization problem we propose a gradient-based approach, where we enhance the numerical performance by an approximation of the bilinear form of the state equation and its derivative with respect to the fractional order. Several numerical tests in one and two dimensions illustrate the theoretical results and show the robustness and applicability of our method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

An optimization-based approach to parameter learning for fractional type nonlocal models

Nonlocal operators of fractional type are a popular modeling choice for applications that do not adhere to classical diffusive behavior; however, one major challenge in nonlocal simulations is the selection of model parameters. In this work we propose an optimization-based approach to parameter identification for fractional models with an optional truncation radius. We formulate the inference problem as an optimal control problem where the objective is to minimize the discrepancy between observed data and an approximate solution of the model, and the control variables are the fractional order and the truncation length. For the numerical solution of the minimization problem we propose a gradient-based approach, where we enhance the numerical performance by an approximation of the bilinear form of the state equation and its derivative with respect to the fractional order. Several numerical tests in one and two dimensions illustrate the theoretical results and show the robustness and applicability of our method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A second order yield-temperature relation for accurate inference of burn-averaged quantities in multi-species plasmas

Measured yields and ion temperatures inferred from the fusion product energy spectra can be used as metrics for the performance of an ICF implosion. This can be to infer species separation, thermal decoupling, flows or other effects that can cause the inferred ion temperatures to deviate from the true underlying thermal temperature and the yield ratio to deviate from the expected value. Direct inference of the impact of these effects on observed temperatures and yields can be difficult to uncover due to underlying dependence on the shape and time evolution of the temperature and density proles of the fusing plasma. Due to differences in the temperature dependence of the reactivities, different fusion products are emitted from different regions and times within the implosion. In order to properly account for this, a second order analytic expression relating the apparent temperatures and yield ratios is developed. This expression can be coupled to models of yield and/or temperature altering effects to infer their burn-averaged impact on an implosion. The second order expression shows significant improvement over lower order expressions in synthetic data studies. Demonstrations of its applications to synthetic data coupled with models of ion thermal decoupling and radial flows are presented. In the case of thermal decoupling both first and second order expressions show reasonable levels of accuracy. To consistently infer the amplitude of radial flow with <10% error the second order equation is required.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

INFERRING THE MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC STRUCTURE OF SOLAR FLARE SUPRA-ARCADE PLASMAS FROM A DATA-ASSIMILATED FIELD TRANSPORT MODEL

Supra-arcade fans are highly dynamic structures that form in the region above post-reconnection flare arcades. In these features the plasma density and temperature evolve on the scale of a few seconds, despite the much slower dynamics of the underlying arcade. Further, the motion of supra-arcade plasma plumes appears to be inconsistent with the low-beta conditions that are often assumed to exist in the solar corona. In order to understand the nature of these highly debated structures, it is, therefore, important to investigate the interplay of the magnetic field with the plasma. Here we present a technique for inferring the underlying magnetohydrodynamic processes that might lead to the types of motions seen in supra-arcade structures. Taking as a case study the 2011 October 22 event, we begin with extreme-ultraviolet observations and develop a time-dependent velocity field that is consistent with both continuity and local correlation tracking. We then assimilate this velocity field into a simplified magnetohydrodynamic simulation, which deals simultaneously with regions of high and low signal-to-noise ratio, thereby allowing the magnetic field to evolve self-consistently with the fluid. Ultimately, we extract the missing contributions from the momentum equation in order to estimate the relative strength of the various forcing terms. In this way we are able to make estimates of the plasma beta, as well as predict the spectral character and total power of Alfvén waves radiated from the supra-arcade region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

PLATO hare-and-hounds exercise: asteroseismic model fitting of main-sequence solar-like pulsators

ABSTRACT Asteroseismology is a powerful tool to infer fundamental stellar properties. The use of these asteroseismic-inferred properties in a growing number of astrophysical contexts makes it vital to understand their accuracy. Consequently, we performed a hare-and-hounds exercise where the hares simulated data for six artificial main-sequence stars and the hounds inferred their properties based on different inference procedures. To mimic a pipeline such as that planned for the PLATO mission, all hounds used the same model grid. Some stars were simulated using the physics adopted in the grid, others a different one. The maximum relative differences found (in absolute value) between the inferred and true values of the mass, radius, and age were 4.32, 1.33, and 11.25 per cent, respectively. The largest systematic differences in radius and age were found for a star simulated assuming gravitational settling, not accounted for in the model grid, with biases of −0.88 per cent (radius) and 8.66 per cent (age). For the mass, the most significant bias (−3.16 per cent) was found for a star with a helium enrichment ratio outside the grid range. Moreover, an ∼7 per cent dispersion in age was found when adopting different prescriptions for the surface corrections or shifting the classical observations by ±1σ. The choice of the relative weight given to the classical and seismic constraints also impacted significantly the accuracy and precision of the results. Interestingly, only a few frequencies were required to achieve accurate results on the mass and radius. For the age the same was true when at least one l = 2 mode was considered.

Cunha, M. S. (ORCID:0000000182377343)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast inference of Boosted Decision Trees in FPGAs for particle physics

We describe the implementation of Boosted Decision Trees in the hls4ml library, which allows the translation of a trained model into FPGA firmware through an automated conversion process. Thanks to its fully on-chip implementation, hls4ml performs inference of Boosted Decision Tree models with extremely low latency. With a typical latency less than 100 ns, this solution is suitable for FPGA-based real-time processing, such as in the Level-1 Trigger system of a collider experiment. These developments open up prospects for physicists to deploy BDTs in FPGAs for identifying the origin of jets, better reconstructing the energies of muons, and enabling better selection of rare signal processes.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

A second order yield-temperature relation for accurate inference of burn-averaged quantities in multi-species plasmas

Measured yields and ion temperatures inferred from the fusion product energy spectra can be used as metrics for the performance of an ICF implosion. This can be used to infer species separation, thermal decoupling, flows, or other effects that can cause the inferred ion temperatures to deviate from the true underlying thermal temperature and the yield ratio to deviate from the expected value. Direct inference of the impact of these effects on observed temperatures and yields can be difficult to uncover due to the underlying dependence on the shape and time evolution of the temperature and density profiles of the fusing plasma. Due to differences in the temperature dependence of the reactivities, different fusion products are emitted from different regions and times within the implosion. In order to properly account for this, a second-order analytical expression relating the apparent temperatures and yield ratios is developed. This expression can be coupled to models of yield and/or temperature altering effects to infer their burn-averaged impact on an implosion. The second-order expression shows significant improvement over lower-order expressions in synthetic data studies. Demonstrations of its applications to synthetic data coupled with models of ion thermal decoupling and radial flows are presented. In the case of thermal decoupling, both first and second-order expressions show reasonable levels of accuracy. To consistently infer the amplitude of radial flow with a <10% error, the second-order equation is required.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

FolpsD: combining EFT and phenomenological approaches for joint power spectrum and bispectrum analyses

We present a theoretical model for the power spectrum and bispectrum of galaxy clustering that exploits the complementarity between small-scale power spectrum information and large-scale bispectrum measurements. We extend the FOLPS code by combining its one-loop EFT galaxy power spectrum with a tree-level galaxy bispectrum projected onto the tripolar spherical harmonics (Sugiyama) basis. To access additional small-scale information, we also consider a line-of-sight damping factor in both statistics, mirroring approaches commonly used in studies of redshift-space distortions. We test the model using DESI DR2 galaxy mocks. Even without damping, the joint analysis of the EFT power spectrum and bispectrum significantly improves constraints and reduces parameter degeneracies relative to power spectrum analyses alone. For LRG-like samples, including the damping further extends the range beyond $k\sim 0.3 \,h \text{Mpc}^{-1}$ in the power spectrum and $k \sim 0.24 \,h \text{Mpc}^{-1}$ in the bispectrum without introducing statistically significant parameter biases. This leads to up to $\sim 30\%$ tighter constraints on $A_s$ and $ω_{cdm}$. For low signal-to-noise tracers such as QSOs, however, the damping parameters are weakly constrained and can absorb noise fluctuations, leading to shifts in inferred parameters. Similar limitations may arise in models where cosmological information is encoded in power-spectrum shape features degenerate with the damping, such as scenarios with massive neutrinos. In contrast, for $w_0w_a$CDM we obtain $15\%$ and $21\%$ tighter constraints on $w_0$ and $w_a$, respectively, yielding a deviation from constant dark energy at slightly more than the $1σ$ level using full-shape information alone. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/cosmodesi/FolpsD

Bansal, P. [Michigan U., MCTP; Michigan U.] (ORCID↗
DOE OSTI2023

Examination of nucleon distribution with Bayesian imaging for isobar collisions

Relativistic collision of isobaric systems is found to be valuable in differentiating the nucleon distributions for nuclei with the same mass number. In recent contrast experiment of $^{96}_{44}$Ru + $^{96}_{44}$Ru versus $^{96}_{40}$Zr + $^{96}_{40}$Zr collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV, the ratios of multiplicity distribution, elliptic flow, triangular flow, and radial flow are precisely measured and found to be significantly different from unity, indicating the difference in the shapes of the isobar pair. Here, in this work, we investigate the feasibility of nuclear structure reconstruction from heavy-ion collision observables. We perform Bayesian Inference with employing the Monte-Carlo Glauber model as an estimator of the mapping from nuclear structure to the final state observables and to provide the mock data for reconstruction. By varying combination of observables included in the mock data, we find it plausible to infer Woods–Saxon parameters from the observables. We also observe that single-system multiplicity distribution for the isobar system, rather than their ratio, is crucial to simultaneously determine the nuclear structure for the isobar system.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Final Report: Quantification of Uncertainty in Extreme Scale Computations (QUEST)

QUEST (\url{www.quest-scidac.org}) is a SciDAC Institute that is focused on uncertainty quantification (UQ) in large-scale scientific computations. Our goals are to (1) advance the state of the art in UQ mathematics, algorithms, and software; and (2) provide modeling, algorithmic, and general UQ expertise, together with software tools, to other SciDAC projects, thereby enabling and guiding a broad range of UQ activities in their respective contexts. QUEST is a collaboration among six institutions (Sandia National Laboratories, Los Alamos National Laboratory, the University of Southern California, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the University of Texas at Austin, and Duke University) with a history of joint UQ research. Our vision encompasses all aspects of UQ in leadership-class computing. This includes the well-founded setup of UQ problems; characterization of the input space given available data/information; local and global sensitivity analysis; adaptive dimensionality and order reduction; forward and inverse propagation of uncertainty; handling of application code failures, missing data, and hardware/software fault tolerance; and model inadequacy, comparison, validation, selection, and averaging. The nature of the UQ problem requires the seamless combination of data, models, and information across this landscape in a manner that provides a self-consistent quantification of requisite uncertainties in predictions from computational models. Accordingly, our UQ methods and tools span an interdisciplinary space across applied math, information theory, and statistics. The MIT QUEST effort centers on statistical inference and methods for surrogate or reduced-order modeling. MIT personnel have been responsible for the development of adaptive sampling methods, methods for approximating computationally intensive models, and software for both forward uncertainty propagation and statistical inverse problems. A key software product of the MIT QUEST effort is the MIT Uncertainty Quantification library, called MUQ (\url{muq.mit.edu}).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Detecting regular sound changes in linguistics as events of concerted evolution

Background: Concerted evolution is normally used to describe parallel changes at different sites in a genome, but it is also observed in languages where a specific phoneme changes to the same other phoneme in many words in the lexicon—a phenomenon known as regular sound change. We develop a general statistical model that can detect concerted changes in aligned sequence data and apply it to study regular sound changes in the Turkic language family. Results: Linguistic evolution, unlike the genetic substitutional process, is dominated by events of concerted evolutionary change. Our model identified more than 70 historical events of regular sound change that occurred throughout the evolution of the Turkic language family, while simultaneously inferring a dated phylogenetic tree. Including regular sound changes yielded an approximately 4-fold improvement in the characterization of linguistic change over a simpler model of sporadic change, improved phylogenetic inference, and returned more reliable and plausible dates for events on the phylogenies. The historical timings of the concerted changes closely follow a Poisson process model, and the sound transition networks derived from our model mirror linguistic expectations. Conclusions: We demonstrate that a model with no prior knowledge of complex concerted or regular changes can nevertheless infer the historical timings and genealogical placements of events of concerted change from the signals left in contemporary data. Our model can be applied wherever discrete elements—such as genes, words, cultural trends, technologies, or morphological traits—can change in parallel within an organism or other evolving group.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗