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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,135 records · Page 63
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Multiphysics Computational-Fluid-Dynamics (CFD) for Design and Scale-Up of Gas Bioreactors that Utilize CO2

Gas fermentation technology offers sustainable and high carbon-efficiency routes to fuels and chemicals. However, efficiently delivering low-solubility substrate gases to production-scale bioreactors is a significant technical challenge that could limit productivity. We perform fundamental and applied multiphysics computational fluid dynamics (CFD) research targeting specific challenges of gas delivery in fermentation systems that utilize varied gas-compositions, for e.g. CO2/CO/CH4/H2 substrates: bubble dynamics, coupled mass-transfer and reaction, that can lead to optimal reactor designs at scale. This work will support BETO goals towards greenhouse gas reduction, derisking technologies toward commercialization/deployment and sustainable-aviation-fuel synthesis targets.

BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Blade and Rim Seal Design of a First Stage High Pressure Turbine for a 300 MWe Supercritical CO2 Power Cycle

A first stage high-pressure turbine (HPT) blade is optimized for a 300 MWe supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power cycle using the surrogate-assisted genetic algorithm optimizer in Numeca FINE/Design 3D with objectives of increasing efficiency and decreasing heat load to the blade. The National Institute of Standards and Technology Reference Fluid Thermodynamic and Transport Properties Database (NIST REFPROP) [1] data for supercritical CO2 is formatted into tables of bicubic polynomial coefficients for use in condensable gas simulations in FINE/Turbo. Nearly 3000 unique shapes are evaluated via three-dimensional Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes simulations, yielding increases in efficiency of up to 0.85 percentage points and decreases in heat load of 14%. A final blade, deemed the advanced blade, is chosen for future experimental analysis. Following this, a squealer tip optimization is performed on both the baseline and advanced blade designs. This optimization resulted in a performance gain of 1.25 points in efficiency and 15% reduction in tip heat load compared to the baseline flat tip design at the same clearance. In tandem, an optimization of the rotor-stator platform rim seal is performed using a parametrized geometry allowing for straight, meandering, and knife seal cavities. This multi-objective optimization focuses on decreasing the cooling mass flow and increasing the heat flux from the rotor and stator disk. The optimization resulted in cooling mass flow decreases of up to 26% while maintaining the average heat flux on the rim seal.

Tuite, Logan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Low temperature upcycling of polyethylene to gasoline range chemicals: Hydrogen transfer and heat compensation to endothermic pyrolysis reaction over zeolites

Selective production of gasoline ranged chemicals were of great interest in the field of plastic upcycling. Here this work reports exothermic hydrogen transfer reaction which was observed when HY zeolite was adopted to catalytic pyrolyze the polyethylene to gasoline ranged chemicals, while it was not observed when H-ZSM5 was used as catalyst. Both zeolite catalysts could significantly bring down the reaction temperature from 500 to 300–350 °C. TG-FITR analysis revealed that products obtained with HY zeolites were dominated with saturated hydrocarbons as compared to H-ZSM5 where the combination of alkanes, alkenes, and aromatics was obtained. In addition to the formation of saturated compounds, the TG-DSC analysis confirmed that, over the HY zeolites, the endothermic hydrogen transfer reaction of olefins occurred along with the pyrolysis of LDPE visibly when the zeolite ratio in the zeolite/polyethylene mixture exceeded 50% by mass. The TG results also indicated that the polyethylene undergone nearly 100% converted with very few residues. Further product analysis from batch pyrolysis by GC-MS confirmed that gasoline ranged iso-alkanes were produced over HY zeolite. This study highlighted that coupling exothermic hydrogen transfer reactions with endothermic pyrolysis could be an energy-efficient way of producing gasoline ranged chemicals. Chemical upcycling of plastics is tunable by using different zeolite combinations for the formation of desired products.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting the structural basis of targeted protein degradation by integrating molecular dynamics simulations with structural mass spectrometry

Targeted protein degradation (TPD) is a promising approach in drug discovery for degrading proteins implicated in diseases. A key step in this process is the formation of a ternary complex where a heterobifunctional molecule induces proximity of an E3 ligase to a protein of interest (POI), thus facilitating ubiquitin transfer to the POI. In this work, we characterize 3 steps in the TPD process. (1) We simulate the ternary complex formation of SMARCA2 bromodomain and VHL E3 ligase by combining hydrogen-deuterium exchange mass spectrometry with weighted ensemble molecular dynamics (MD). (2) We characterize the conformational heterogeneity of the ternary complex using Hamiltonian replica exchange simulations and small-angle X-ray scattering. (3) We assess the ubiquitination of the POI in the context of the full Cullin-RING Ligase, confirming experimental ubiquitinomics results. Differences in degradation efficiency can be explained by the proximity of lysine residues on the POI relative to ubiquitin.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Solventless, Ambient-Pressure Production of Bio-Based Lactones Over Earth-Abundant, Mixed Metal Oxide Catalysts for Circular Polyesters

Transitioning to a circular plastics economy will require use of renewable feedstocks, energy-efficient processes, and closed-loop recyclable polymers, such as polyesters. A key challenge lies in sustainably sourcing monomers used to make recyclable polyesters. This work presents a catalytic platform utilizing earth-abundant Cu(x)Ca(1-x)O mixed metal oxides for the oxidative dehydrocyclization of bio-based diols to lactones, which are advantaged for energy-efficient ring-opening polymerization. Operating below 200 degrees C, at ambient pressure, and without solvent, the process uses air as the sole oxidant, achieving high yields of lactones across a broad substrate scope of C4-8 diols in the liquid phase. The oxidative dehydrocyclization reaction is thermodynamically downhill due to water formation and energy-efficient compared to incumbent, non-redox pathways utilized in fossil carbon-based industrial processes for lactone production. Mechanistic studies reveal facile redox cycling of Cu2+-O(Ca2+)-Cu2+ interfacial sites unique to the developed catalyst. Techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment estimate 40% lower energy demand and 15% lower GHG intensity per mass of butyrolactone produced compared to the fossil carbon-based route. Liquid-phase oxidative dehydrocyclization offers a promising approach for scalable lactone production from renewable, bio-based diols to enable circular polyesters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Advanced manufacturing for electrosynthesis of fuels and chemicals from CO 2

Advanced manufacturing (AM) represents an appealing approach for creating novel electrochemical systems for chemicals synthesis. In this work, we demonstrate AM for rapid development and testing for improved performance for the carbon dioxide reduction reaction across an evolution of vapor-fed reactor designs. In our final design, we observe activation- and mixed-control regimes for a variety of operating conditions via inlet CO 2 flow rate and electrochemical potential. Furthermore, we define a dimensionless number (Da) to identify mass transport regimes by exploring the impact of hypothesized underlying mass transport mechanisms, including consumption of CO 2 via OH - , increased local temperatures, and partial penetration of electrolyte into gas diffusion layer. The accelerated pace of reactor design and development led to high geometric current densities (500 mA cm -2 ), heightened selectivity (85.5% FE C 2+ products), and increased carbon dioxide conversion (16.6%) and cathodic energy efficiency (49.6% CO 2 R). Using AM vapor-fed reactors, we attain high ethylene (3.67%) and record ethanol (3.66%) yields compared to the literature. Finally, this work underscores the promise of AM for accelerating reactor design, understanding of governing phenomena, and improving the performance of catalytic systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data from: "Growth strategies and threshold responses to water deficit modulate effects of warming on tree seedlings from forest to alpine"

This data package contains data that were used to support conclusions drawn in “Growth strategies and threshold responses to water deficit modulate effects of warming on tree seedlings from forest to alpine”, by Lazarus, Castanha et al. 2017. Data were collected at field sites within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE) on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA, and at the U.S. Geological Survey laboratory located in Boise, Idaho. This archive contains comma-separated-values (.csv) files, as well as the same files in Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) format, which can be opened by either Microsoft Excel, R, or any simple text editor program. There are two types of geospatial data files: .kml and ESRI shapefiles (.shp). The kml files contain placemarks, which can be opened by Google Earth, or Google Maps. The ESRI shapefiles can be opened by any geographic information system application that can read shapefiles, including ESRI's entire ArcGIS suite, and QGIS. We asked whether and how tree species differences in response to water deficit relates to their establishment along the gradient from forest to alpine. To do this, we compared growth and moisture stress responses in first-year seedlings of three species planted in common gardens subject to a factorial of heating and watering treatments below, at, and above tree line. This combination of an elevation gradient alongside warming and watering treatments enabled us to observe species differences in seedling responses to a broad set of climatic conditions.Entire seedlings were harvested at c. 3- and again at 9 weeks of age following germination/emergence in the experimental plots, and we then measured dry mass (DM) of above and belowground parts, root length, root mass fraction (RMF), relative growth rates (RGRs) from seed to 3 weeks and from 3 to 9 weeks, turgor-loss point (TLP), and photosynthetic WUE (as δ13C). Also included in this dataset (but not described in the manuscript) are measures of specific leaf area (SLA) and other variables generated by pressure-volume curves (saturated water content, osmotic potential at full turgor, elastic modulus).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Production of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) by fast-growing phytoplankton

Sea spray aerosol contains ice-nucleating particles (INPs), which affect the formation and proper ties of clouds. Here, we show that aerosols emitted from fast-growing marine phytoplankton produce effective immersion INPs, which nucleate at temperatures significantly warmer than the atmospheric homogeneous freezing (-38.0 °C) of pure water. Aerosol sampled over phytoplankton cultures grown in a Marine Aerosol Ref erence Tank (MART) induced nucleation and freezing at temperatures as high as -15.0 °C during exponential phytoplankton growth. This was observed in monospecific cultures representative of two major groups of phy toplankton, namely a cyanobacterium (Synechococcus elongatus) and a diatom (Thalassiosira weissflogii). Ice nucleation occurred at colder temperatures (-28.5 °C and below), which were not different from the freezing temperatures of procedural blanks, when the cultures were in the stationary or death phases of growth. Ice nucleation at warmer temperatures was associated with relatively high values of the maximum quantum yield of photosystem II ( Φ PSII ), an indicator of the physiological status of phytoplankton. High values of Φ PSII indicate the presence of cells with efficient photochemistry and greater potential for photosynthesis. For comparison, field measurements in the North Atlantic Ocean showed that high net growth rates of natural phytoplankton assemblages were associated with marine aerosol that acted as effective immersion INPs at relatively warm temperatures. Data were collected over 4 d at a sampling station maintained in the same water mass as the water column stabilized after deep mixing by a storm. Phytoplankton biomass and net phytoplankton growth rate (0.56 d -1 ) were greatest over the 24 h preceding the warmest mean ice nucleation temperature (-25.5 °C). Collectively, our laboratory and field observations indicate that phytoplankton physiological status is a useful predictor of effective INPs and more reliable than biomass or taxonomic affiliation. Ocean regions associated with fast phytoplankton growth, such as the North Atlantic during the annual spring bloom, may be significant sources of atmospheric INPs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Parallel-in-Time Solution of Allen-Cahn Equations by Integrating Operator Learning into the Parareal Method

While recent advances in deep learning have shown promising efficiency gains in solving time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs), matching the accuracy of conventional numerical solvers still remains a challenge. One strategy to improve the accuracy of deep learning-based solutions for time-dependent PDEs is to use the learned model as the coarse propagator in the Parareal method and a traditional numerical method as the fine solver. However, successful integration of deep learning into the Parareal method requires consistency between the coarse and fine solvers, particularly for PDEs exhibiting rapid changes such as sharp transitions. Here, to ensure this consistency, we propose using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to learn the fully discrete time-stepping operator defined by the same numerical scheme employed as the fine solver. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in solving the classical and mass-conservative Allen–Cahn (AC) equations. Through iterative updates in the Parareal algorithm, our approach achieves a significant computational speedup compared to traditional fine solvers while converging to high-accuracy solutions. Our results highlight that the proposed hybrid Parareal algorithm effectively accelerates simulations, particularly when implemented on multiple GPUs, and converges to the desired accuracy in only a few iterations. Another advantage of our method is that the CNN model is trained on trajectory-based data generated from random initial conditions, such that the trained model can be used to solve the AC equations with various initial conditions without retraining. This work demonstrates the potential of integrating neural network methods into parallel-in-time frameworks for efficient and accurate simulations of time-dependent PDEs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Reversibility of Iron Metal Anode with a Solid Electrolyte Interphase in Concentrated Chloride Electrolytes

Iron is a promising candidate for a cost-effective anode for large-scale energy storage systems due to its natural abundance and well-established mass production. Recently, Fe-ion batteries (FeIBs) that use ferrous ions as the charge carrier have emerged as a potential storage solution. The electrolytes in FeIBs are necessarily acidic to render the ferrous ions more anodically stable, allowing a wide operation voltage window. However, the iron anode suffers severe hydrogen evolution reaction with a low Coulombic efficiency (CE) in an acidic environment, shortening the battery cycle life. Herein, a hybrid aqueous electrolyte that forms a solid-electrolyte interphase (SEI) layer on the Fe anode surface is introduced. The electrolyte mainly comprises FeCl 2 and ZnCl 2 as cosalts, where the Zn-Cl anionic complex species of the concentrated ZnCl 2 allows dimethyl carbonate (DMC) to be miscible with the aqueous ferrous electrolyte. SEI derived from DMC's decomposition passivates the iron surface, which leads to an average CE of 98.3% and much-improved cycling stability. As a result, this advancement shows the promise of efficient and durable FeIBs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhancing Chemical Stability and Suppressing Ion Migration in CH 3 NH 3 PbI 3 Perovskite Solar Cells via Direct Backbone Attachment of Polyesters on Grain Boundaries

Organic–inorganic halide perovskites feature excellent optoelectronic properties but poor chemical stability. While passivating perovskite grain boundary (GB) by polymers shows prospects on long-term performance of perovskite solar cells (PSCs), its detailed impact on the ion migration phenomenon, which largely deteriorates the PSC stability, remains less probed. In this work, we introduce a new polar polymer, polycaprolactone (PCL), to passivate GBs of methylammonium lead triiodide (MAPbI 3 ) perovskite with only 1–2 polymer monolayers via direct backbone attachment. The PSCs with passivated MAPbI 3 , using a classic but less stable Spiro-OMeTAD (2,2',7,7'-tetrakis[N,N-di(4-methoxyphenyl)amino]-9,9'-spirobifluorene) hole transport layer (HTL), exhibit improved power conversion efficiencies up to 20.1%, with 90% of the initial PCE being preserved after 400 h ambient storage, and 80% even after 100 h, 85 °C aging. The improved PSC stability indicates critical roles of PCL GB passivation in retarding moisture-induced decomposition and suppressing ion migration within the perovskite. Furthermore, time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry reveals that I– ions can actively migrate into the electrode, HTL, and their interface in nonpassivated PSCs, even without an externally applied electric field, while such migration is significantly mitigated in PCL-passivated PSCs. This effective GB passivation by PCL suggests an important potential of polymer additives toward the development of stable high-performance PSCs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation Rate Coefficient Parameterizations From Ambient Measurements

Ice nucleating particles (INPs) are a rare subset of particles that can have an outsized impact relative to their prevalence. To simulate INP variability, models require parameterizations for the most important sources of INPs. Most parameterizations in the literature were developed from laboratory experiments that used proxies for ambient particles. Whether these laboratory models effectively represent ambient aerosol is still not well understood and parameterizations developed from field measurements may be more atmospherically relevant. Expanding on previous work in which we used an ice chamber and a single-particle mass spectrometer (SPMS) to characterize INP composition, we calculate heterogeneous ice nucleation rate coefficients for ambient particles. We find good agreement between our dust and previous measurements of airborne dust. We also use a Monte Carlo approach to assess the relative contribution of each measurement to the uncertainty and find that the biggest source is the sampling efficiency of the SPMS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Experimental investigation of laser ablation of stone polycrystalline targets

We report the results of an experimental investigation of ablation of stone polycrystalline targets of complex multicomponent composition, which imitate the substance of asteroids. The targets were irradiated by nanosecond pulses of a neodymium laser at an energy density Φ{sub L} of up to 5 × 10{sup 4} J cm{sup −2}. The experiments demonstrated the existence of two ablation regimes, with the boundary between them lying at Φ{sub L} ≈ 4000 J cm{sup −2}. The regime change is characterised by a change in the form of the dependence of the surface mass density of removed target material on the laser energy density and by the appearance of a minimum in the dependence of specific energy of destruction on Φ{sub L}. This is supposedly related to the passage from a one-dimensional plasma plume expansion to the three-dimensional one and the corresponding decrease in the efficiency of energy transfer from the laser beam to the target due to a lowering of laser-produced plasma density. Our experiments also showed the existence of a maximum in impulse coupling coefficient C{sub m} as a function of laser energy density (C{sub m} ≈ 6.3 × 10{sup −5} N W{sup −1} for Φ{sub L} = Φ{sub opt} ≈ 25 J cm{sup −2}). Maxima were also recorded in the dependences of the ablation efficiency and average ablation flow velocity on Φ{sub L}. For Φ{sub L} > Φ{sub opt}, the decrease in the function C{sub m}(Φ{sub L}) turns out to be much steeper than for metals and polymer materials. The difference is supposedly due to the lower strength and lower plasticity of the polycrystalline stone targets. (paper)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Investigating the XENON1T low-energy electronic recoil excess using NEST

The search for dark matter, the missing mass of the Universe, is one of the most active fields of study within particle physics. The XENON1T experiment recently observed a 3.5⁢𝜎 excess potentially consistent with dark matter, or with solar axions. Here, we will use the Noble Element Simulation Technique (NEST) software to simulate the XENON1T detector, reproducing the excess. We utilize different detector efficiency and energy reconstruction models, but they primarily impact sub-keV energies and cannot explain the XENON1T excess. However, using NEST, we can reproduce their excess in multiple, unique ways, most easily via the addition of 31 ± 11 37 Ar decays. Furthermore, this results in new, modified background models, reducing the significance of the excess to ≤2.2⁢𝜎 at least using non-Profile Likelihood Ratio (PLR) methods. This is independent confirmation that the excess is a real effect, but potentially explicable by known physics. Many cross-checks of our 37 Ar hypothesis are presented.

particle dark matter↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling and Optimal Design of a Desalination System Integrated Between a Glass-Covered Solar Collection Water Chamber and a Heat Dissipating Chimney

Abstract Solar thermal energy is trapped in a glass-covered water chamber/basin to provide the heat for evaporation of brackish water in a novel desalination system. To harvest clean water, a chimney is integrated with the water basin, which draws air into the chamber to be humidified by the vapor and then being ventilated via buoyance force. Uniquely, thermal conductive metal sheet is recommended to make the chimney, which allows the vapor in the humid air condenses easily when flowing up. The condensate at the inner wall of the chimney flows down to be collected as clean water. Mathematical modeling and numerical computation have been carried out to delineate the coupling of the buoyance-force-driven flow with the heat and mass transfer of air and water in the solar collection chamber and the condensation of vapor in the heat-dissipating chimney. The objective of the simulation and optimization of the system is to find the best match of the dimensions of the water chamber with a chimney to maximize the production of clean water and energy efficiency. The model has been used to simulation several cases (of water from 40 °C to 50 °C) with available experimental data from the authors’ previous work, and the agreement was satisfactory. The optimization studies found that there is a maximum air flowrate corresponding to a critical chimney height due to the requirement that the chimney is designated to dissipate heat as much as possible to condense water vapor. With the chimney height greater than the critical height, the airflow rate will have a slight decrease. Nevertheless, higher than a critical height is still needed for a chimney to condense more moisture. Optimized chamber diameters at different chimney heights are provided for reference of optimal system designs.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Openpronghorn

OpenPronghorn is a simulation tool specifically tailored for modeling thermal-hydraulic phenomena in advanced nuclear reactors. It is built on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), an open-source platform that facilitates the development of high-performance scientific computing applications. OpenPronghorn solves the Navier-Stokes equations, which describe the conservation of mass, momentum, and energy in fluid flows, using the finite volume numerical method. The code supports a wide range of fluid flow conditions that are applicable to nuclear reactors, including incompressible and weakly compressible flows, as well as single-phase and multiphase flows. It is capable of modeling diverse flow regimes, including laminar and turbulent flows, using various turbulence models such as the standard k-epsilon models, the v2f model, and the mixing length model. For multiphase flows, OpenPronghorn employs a mixture a Eulerian modeling approach with mixture, drift-flux, and full Eulerian models, and includes open-sourced interfacial transfer correlations for drag, exchange, and heat transfer coming from the scientific literature. OpenPronghorn's modular design allows it to handle multiscale simulations, ranging from detailed Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) simulations to coarse-mesh and lumped parameter models. This flexibility enables users to perform high-fidelity simulations of specific reactor components as well as system-level analyses of entire reactor circuits. The code can be coupled with other MOOSE-based tools using the MultiApp system, allowing for the transfer of coupling quantities such as mass flow rates, heat fluxes, and boundary conditions between different simulation scales. One of the main features of OpenPronghorn is the it includes built-in validation cases from the open-source scientific literature and supports the implementation of user-defined models and correlations through MOOSE's FunctorMaterial system. OpenPronghorn is designed to be computationally efficient, leveraging the SIMPLE projection method for large-scale problems, and can be run on high-performance computing systems to handle the extensive computational demands of detailed reactor simulations. Overall, OpenPronghorn is a versatile and robust tool that provides critical insights into the thermal-hydraulic behavior of advanced nuclear reactors, supporting the design, safety, and optimization of next-generation nuclear energy systems.

Retamales, Mauricio Eduardo Tano [Idaho National L↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Carousel Lens: A Well-modeled Strong Lens with Multiple Sources Spectroscopically Confirmed by VLT/MUSE

Over the past few years alone, the lensing community has discovered thousands of strong lens candidates, and spectroscopically confirmed hundreds of them. In this time of abundance, it becomes pragmatic to focus our time and resources on the few extraordinary systems, in order to most efficiently study the Universe. In this paper, we present such a system: DESI-090.9854-35.9683, a cluster-scale lens at z l = 0.49, with seven observed lensed sources around the core, and additional lensed sources further out in the cluster. From the number and the textbook configuration of the lensed images, a tight constraint on the mass potential of the lens is possible. This would allow for detailed analysis on the dark and luminous matter content within galaxy clusters, as well as a probe into dark energy and high-redshift galaxies. We present our spatially resolved kinematic measurements of this system from the Very Large Telescope Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer, which confirm five of these source galaxies (in ascending order, at z s = 0.962, 0.962, 1.166, 1.432, and 1.432). With previous Hubble Space Telescope imaging in the F140W and F200LP bands, we also present a simple flux-based lens model consisting of two power-law profiles that, for a cluster lens, well models the five lensed arc families with redshifts. We determine the mass to be M(< θ E ) = 4.78 × 10 13 M ⊙ for the primary mass potential. From the model, we extrapolate the redshift of one of the two source galaxies not yet spectroscopically confirmed to be at $z_s = 4.52^{+1.03}_{-0.71}$.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗