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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

STROBE-X: X-ray Timing & Spectroscopy on Dynamical Timescales from Milliseconds to Years

We describe a probe-class mission concept that provides an unprecedented view of the X-ray sky, performing timing and 0.2-30 keV spectroscopy over timescales from microseconds to years. The Spectroscopic Time-Resolving Observatory for Broadband Energy X-rays (STROBE-X) has three key science drivers: (1) measuring the spin distribution of accreting black holes, (2) understanding the equation of state of dense matter, and (3) exploring the properties of the precursors and electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational wave sources. To perform these science investigations, STROBE-X comprises three primary instruments. The first uses an array of lightweight optics (3-m focal length) that concentrate incident photons onto solid state detectors with CCD-level (85-130 eV) energy resolution, 100 ns time resolution, and low background rates to cover the 0.2-12 keV band. This technology is scaled up from NICER, with enhanced optics to take advantage of the longer focal length of STROBE-X. The second uses large-area collimated silicon drift detectors, developed for ESA's LOFT, to cover the 2-30 keV band. These two instruments each provide an order of magnitude improvement in effective area compared with its predecessor (NICER and RXTE, respectively). Finally, a sensitive sky monitor triggers pointed observations, provides high duty cycle, high time resolution, high spectral resolution monitoring of the X-ray sky with ~20 times the sensitivity of the RXTE ASM, and enables multi-wavelength and multi-messenger studies on a continuous, rather than scanning basis. The STROBE-X mission concept is a rapidly repointable observatory in low-Earth orbit, similar to RXTE or Swift, and will be presented to the 2020 Astrophysics Decadal Survey for consideration as a probe-class mission.

STROBE-X: X-ray↗

SEEDS Moving Groups and CHARIS Status Updates

We present the status update for the SEEDS Moving Groups category. To date, we have observed 59 targets and currently have more than 20 candidates. We also present the expected scientific capabilities of CHARIS, the Coronagraphic High Angular Resolution Imaging Spectrograph, which is being built for the Subaru 8.2 m telescope of the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan. CHARIS will be implemented behind the new extreme adaptive optics system at Subaru, SCExAO, and the existing 188-actuator system AO188. CHARIS will offer three observing modes over near~infrared wavelengths from 0.9 to 2.4 microns (the y-, J-, H-, and K-bands), including a low-spectral-resolution mode covering this entire wavelength range and a high-resolution mode within a single band. With these capabilities, CHARIS will offer exceptional sensitivity for discovering giant exoplanets, and will enable detailed characterization of their atmospheres, CHARIS, the only planned high-contrast integral field spectrograph on an 8m-class telescope in the Northern Hemisphere, will complement the similar instruments such as Project 1640 at Palomar, and GPI and SPHERE in Chile.

McElwain, Michael↗

Stellar Population Properties in the Stellar Streams around SPRC047

Abstract We have investigated the properties (e.g., age, metallicity) of the stellar populations of a ringlike tidal stellar stream (or streams) around the edge-on galaxy SPRC047 (z= 0.031) using spectral energy distribution (SED) fits to integrated broadband aperture flux densities. We used visual images in six different bands and Spitzer/IRAC 3.6μm data. We have attempted to derive best-fit stellar population parameters (metallicity, age) in three noncontiguous segments of the stream. Due to the very low surface brightness of the stream, we have performed a deconvolution with a Richardson–Lucy–type algorithm of the low spatial resolution 3.6μm IRAC image, thereby reducing the effect of the point-spread function aliasedemissionfrom the bright edge-on central galaxy at the locations of our three stream segments. Our SED fits that used several different star formation (SF) history priors, from an exponentially decaying SF burst to continuous SF, indicate that the age–metallicity–dust degeneracy is not resolved, most likely because of inadequate wavelength coverage and low signal-to-noise ratios of the low surface brightness features. We also discuss how future deep visual–near-infrared observations, combined with absolute flux calibration uncertainties at or below the 1% level, complemented by equally well absolute flux-calibrated observations in ultraviolet and mid-infrared bands, would improve the accuracy of broadband SED fitting results for low surface brightness targets, such as stellar streams around nearby galaxies that are not resolved into stars.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Intercomparison of Models Representing Direct Shortwave Radiative Forcing by Sulfate Aerosols

The importance of aerosols as agents of climate change has recently been highlighted. However, the magnitude of aerosol forcing by scattering of shortwave radiation (direct forcing) is still very uncertain even for the relatively well characterized sulfate aerosol. A potential source of uncertainty is in the model representation of aerosol optical properties and aerosol influences on radiative transfer in the atmosphere. Although radiative transfer methods and codes have been compared in the past, these comparisons have not focused on aerosol forcing (change in net radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere). Here we report results of a project involving 12 groups using 15 models to examine radiative forcing by sulfate aerosol for a wide range of values of particle radius, aerosol optical depth, surface albedo, and solar zenith angle. Among the models that were employed were high and low spectral resolution models incorporating a variety of radiative transfer approximations as well as a line-by-line model. The normalized forcings (forcing per sulfate column burden) obtained with the several radiative transfer models were examined, and the discrepancies were characterized. All models simulate forcings of comparable amplitude and exhibit a similar dependence on input parameters. As expected for a non-light-absorbing aerosol, forcings were negative (cooling influence) except at high surface albedo combined with small solar zenith angle. The relative standard deviation of the zenith-angle-averaged normalized broadband forcing for 15 models-was 8% for particle radius near the maximum in this forcing (approx. 0.2 microns) and at low surface albedo. Somewhat greater model-to-model discrepancies were exhibited at specific solar zenith angles. Still greater discrepancies were exhibited at small particle radii and much greater discrepancies were exhibited at high surface albedos, at which the forcing changes sign; in these situations, however, the normalized forcing is quite small quite small. Discrepancies among the models arise from inaccuracies in Mie calculations, differing treatment of the angular scattering phase function, differing wavelength and angular resolution, and differing treatment of multiple scattering. These results imply the need for standardized radiative transfer methods tailored to the direct aerosol forcing problem. However, the relatively small spread in these results suggests that the uncertainty in forcing arising from the treatment of radiative forcing of a well-characterized aerosol at well-specified surface albedo is smaller than some of the other sources of uncertainty in estimates of direct forcing by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols and anthropogenic aerosols generally.

Boucher, O.↗

STROBE-X: X-Ray Timing Spectroscopy on Dynamical Timescales from Microseconds to Years

We describe a probe-class mission concept that provides an unprecedented view of the X-ray sky, performing timing and 0.2-30 keV spectroscopy over timescales from microseconds to years. The Spectroscopic Time-Resolving Observatory for Broadband Energy X-rays (STROBE-X) comprises three primary instruments. The first uses an array of lightweight optics (3-m focal length) that concentrate incident photons onto solid state detectors with CCD-level (85-130 eV) energy resolution, 100 ns time resolution, and low background rates to cover the 0.2-12 keV band. This technology is scaled up from NICER, with enhanced optics to take advantage of the longer focal length of STROBE-X. The second uses large-area collimated silicon drift detectors, developed for ESA's LOFT, to cover the 2-30 keV band. These two instruments each provide an order of magnitude improvement in effective area compared with its predecessor (NICER and RXTE, respectively). Finally, a sensitive sky monitor triggers pointed observations, provides high duty cycle, high time resolution, high spectral resolution monitoring of the X-ray sky with approx. 20 times the sensitivity of the RXTE ASM, and enables multi-wavelength and multi-messenger studies on a continuous, rather than scanning basis.For the first time, the broad coverage provides simultaneous study of thermal components, non-thermal components, iron lines, and reflection features from a single platform for accreting black holes at all scales. The enormous collecting area allows detailed studies of the dense matter equation of state using both thermal emission from rotation-powered pulsars and harder emission from X-ray burst oscillations. The combination of the wide-field monitor and the sensitive pointed instruments enables observations of potential electromagnetic counterparts to LIGO and neutrino events. Additional extragalactic science, such as high quality spectroscopy of clusters of galaxies and unprecedented timing investigations of active galactic nuclei, is also obtained.

STROBE-X X-ray↗

STROBE-X: X-ray Timing & Spectroscopy on Dynamical Timescales from Milliseconds to Years

We describe a probe-class mission concept that provides an unprecedented view of the X-ray sky, performing timing and 0.2-30 keV spectroscopy over timescales from microseconds to years. The Spectroscopic Time-Resolving Observatory for Broadband Energy X-rays (STROBE-X) comprises three primary instruments. The first uses an array of lightweight optics (3-m focal length) that concentrate incident photons onto solid state detectors with CCD-level (85-130 eV) energy resolution, 100 ns time resolution, and low background rates to cover the 0.2-12 keV band. This technology is scaled up from NICER [1], with enhanced optics to take advantage of the longer focal length of STROBE-X. The second uses large-area collimated silicon drift detectors, developed for ESA's LOFT [2], to cover the 2-30 keV band. These two instruments each provide an order of magnitude improvement in effective area compared with its predecessor (NICER and RXTE, respectively). Finally, a sensitive sky monitor triggers pointed observations, provides high duty cycle, high time resolution, high spectral resolution monitoring of the X-ray sky with approx. 20 times the sensitivity of the RXTE ASM, and enables multi-wavelength and multi-messenger studies on a continuous, rather than scanning basis. For the first time, the broad coverage provides simultaneous study of thermal components, non-thermal components, iron lines, and reflection features from a single platform for accreting black holes at all scales. The enormous collecting area allows detailed studies of the dense matter equation of state using both thermal emission from rotation-powered pulsars and harder emission from X-ray burst oscillations. The combination of the wide-field monitor and the sensitive pointed instruments enables observations of potential electromagnetic counterparts to LIGO and neutrino events. Additional extragalactic science, such as high quality spectroscopy of clusters of galaxies and unprecedented timing investigations of active galactic nuclei, is also obtained

STROBE-↗

Orbiter Camera Payload System

Components for an orbiting camera payload system (OCPS) include the large format camera (LFC), a gas supply assembly, and ground test, handling, and calibration hardware. The LFC, a high resolution large format photogrammetric camera for use in the cargo bay of the space transport system, is also adaptable to use on an RB-57 aircraft or on a free flyer satellite. Carrying 4000 feet of film, the LFC is usable over the visible to near IR, at V/h rates of from 11 to 41 milliradians per second, overlap of 10, 60, 70 or 80 percent and exposure times of from 4 to 32 milliseconds. With a 12 inch focal length it produces a 9 by 18 inch format (long dimension in line of flight) with full format low contrast resolution of 88 lines per millimeter (AWAR), full format distortion of less than 14 microns and a complement of 45 Reseau marks and 12 fiducial marks. Weight of the OCPS as supplied, fully loaded is 944 pounds and power dissipation is 273 watts average when in operation, 95 watts in standby. The LFC contains an internal exposure sensor, or will respond to external command. It is able to photograph starfields for inflight calibration upon command.

Source record↗

On Infrared Excesses Associated with Li-Rich K Giants

Infrared (IR) excesses around K-type red giants (RGs) have previously been discovered using Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) data, and past studies have suggested a link between RGs with overabundant lithium and IR excesses, implying the ejection of circumstellar shells or disks. We revisit the question of IR excesses around RGs using higher spatial resolution IR data, primarily from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. Our goal was to elucidate the link between three unusual RG properties: fast rotation, enriched lithium, and IR excess. Our sample of RGs includes those with previous IR detections, a sample with well-defined rotation and lithium abundance measurements with no previous IR measurements, and a large sample of RGs asserted to be lithium-rich in the literature; we have 316 targets thought to be K giants, about 40% of which we take to be Li-rich. In 24 cases with previous detections of IR excess at low spatial resolution, we believe that source confusion is playing a role, in that either (a) the source that is bright in the optical is not responsible for the IR flux, or (b) there is more than one source responsible for the IR flux as measured in IRAS. We looked for IR excesses in the remaining sources, identifying 28 that have significant IR excesses by approximately 20 micrometers (with possible excesses for 2 additional sources). There appears to be an intriguing correlation in that the largest IR excesses are all in Li-rich K giants, though very few lithium-rich K giants have IR excesses (large or small). These largest IR excesses also tend to be found in the fastest rotators. There is no correlation of IR excess with the carbon isotopic ratio, 12C/13C. IR excesses by 20 micrometers, though relatively rare, are at least twice as common among our sample of lithium-rich K giants. If dust shell production is a common by-product of Li enrichment mechanisms, these observations suggest that the IR excess stage is very short-lived, which is supported by theoretical calculations. Conversely, the lithium-enrichment mechanism may only occasionally produce dust, and an additional parameter (e.g., rotation) may control whether or not a shell is ejected.

Li-rich↗

Review of metal-containing resists in electron beam lithography: perspectives for extreme ultraviolet patterning

Background: Metal-containing resists entered the mainstream semiconductor industry process flow to mitigate the low absorbance of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation by thin films of organic resists that lead to poor sensitivity and their inability to handle rigors of development and etching conditions. Aim: The long and rich history of using metal-containing resists in electron beam lithography can offer interesting lessons, pointers, and insights to the relatively newcomer EUV lithography, which is slightly over a decade old. Approach: Electron beam lithography has been enjoying a considerable amount of freedom in the choice of resist materials for close to 50 years; especially the use of metal-containing resists to attain not only single digit nanometer resolution, higher sensitivity, and etch resistance but also lower line-edge roughness. Here, we make a comprehensive historical review of the progress made in the patterning of metal-containing resists in electron beam lithography and derive insights that can be potentially useful in EUV patterning. Perspectives: Small molecular weight resists are proven to be crucial for achieving higher resolution with low line-edge roughness. Simplifying process flow by reducing etch-stack-layers is conceivable with metal-containing resists, along with direct-patterning of functional materials for heterogeneous integration. Efficient contact hole patterning at tighter pitches may be incumbent on progress in positive-tone resist research.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Extraction of Vibration Data with Imaging

To date, the primary sensing technology used to measure the vibration response has been accelerometers and strain gages mounted directly to the structure and using either wired or, more recently, wireless telemetry. Cost issues with these sensors and the associated data acquisition systems typically limit the numbers that are deployed on in situ structures. Although there are a few structures with larger sensing counts that in some cases exceed over 1000 sensors, more typical numbers range from ten to one hundred sensors resulting in low spatial resolution when they are applied to physically large systems. When one considers that nuclear power plant structures usually have complex geometries, material properties, connectivity and boundary conditions, it is clear these current approaches to vibration measurements can only provide limited information about a system’s dynamics response characteristics. As an alternative, many non-contact measurement technologies have emerged, including point wise measurement methods such as Global Positioning System (GPS), microwave interferometry, and laser Doppler vibrometry (LDV), as well as simultaneous full-field measurement methods such as electronic speckle pattern interferometry, holography interferometry, and muon tomography, some of which can provide high spatial resolution measurements. Among these methods, digital video imaging techniques have emerged as a feasible solution for full-field vibration measurements that provide significantly more detailed dynamic response information because every pixel becomes a measurement point. Furthermore, recent advances in image processing and computer vision algorithms have been successfully used to process video data for experimental and operational modal analysis. Such full-field measurements have the potential to significantly improve many current structural assessment procedures including system identification (modal parameter estimation), structural health monitoring, load reconstruction, model validation, and model updating. Furthermore, more recent full-field imaging techniques can be accomplished with relatively low-cost, commercially-available off-the-shelf cameras. However, these measurement procedures have other limitations that must be considered such as the ability to only measure visibly accessible points on a structure and a more limited dynamic range and bandwidth than can be achieved with accelerometers or strain gages.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Uncertainties in derived temperature-height soundings A summary

It is shown that high-resolution low-uncertainty temperature-height profiles cannot be deduced from pressure-height data alone because the relative uncertainty in pressure data cannot be expected to be smaller than 1% or 2% in present-day practical instrumentation. The basic equations relating temperature to pressure-height or density-height data are subjected to error analysis to determine the uncertainty introduced into computed temperature-height values by observed data. The results show that the use of density data is much more preferable than the use of pressure data if atmospheric temperature is to be determined as a function of height with a fine height resolution and a small uncertainty from the height profiles of pressure or density and if pressures and densities can be measured with comparable accuracies.

Minzner, R. A.↗

Planetary Boundary-Layer Height (PBLHT) Value-Added Product: Remote-Sensing Retrievals

The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is fundamental to numerous atmospheric processes, including aerosol mixing and transport, cloud evolution, and precipitation formation. A critical parameter in these studies is the PBL height (PBLHT). This vertical depth is essential for characterizing PBL structures in numerical simulations and serves as a primary metric for estimating flux exchanges between the Earth’s surface and the atmosphere. Radiosonde (SONDE) observations provide high-vertical-resolution measurements of temperature and moisture profiles and are widely used to estimate PBLHT (Liu and Liang 2010, Seidel et al. 2010). The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s PBLHT value-added product (VAP) for radiosonde measurements, known as PBLHTSONDE, applies three commonly used methods—the Heffter (1980) method, the Liu and Liang (2010) method, and the bulk Richardson number approach (Seibert et al. 2000)—to derive PBLHT. The PBLHTSONDE VAP operates routinely at ARM observatories and mobile facilities, with data available from the ARM Data Center shortly after sounding observations are collected (Sivaraman et al. 2013). However, radiosonde observations are limited by their low temporal resolution. Most stations launch soundings only twice daily, which constrains the ability to investigate and characterize the temporal evolution of the PBL using radiosonde data alone. The use of continuous remote-sensing observations provides high temporal resolution of PBLHT estimates. These observations include aerosol lidars (Dang et al. 2019, Su et al. 2020), Doppler lidar (DL; Tucker et al. 2009, Krishnamurthy et al. 2021), and water vapor and/or temperature lidars and radiometers (Turner et al. 2014). These observations provide valuable data on the PBL’s thermodynamic properties (e.g., water vapor and/or temperature lidars and radiometers), dynamic properties (e.g., DL), and distribution of tracer substances (e.g., aerosol lidars), all of which can be used to estimate PBLHT. ARM developed PBLHT estimates from the micropulse lidar (MPL; PBLHTMPL), Doppler lidar (PBLHTDL), and combined Raman lidar (RL)/atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) thermodynamic profiles (PBLHTTHERMO). Each estimate captures different physical characteristics of the boundary layer—aerosol tracers, vertical velocity turbulence, and thermodynamic structure—and exhibits distinct strengths and limitations depending on the PBL regime and time of day. In addition, the ARM ceilometer (CEIL) provides three potential PBLHT candidates derived from the vendor's built-in algorithm. Building on these individual retrievals, ARM developed the PBLHTBEML VAP, which combines the four remote-sensing-based estimates with ancillary meteorological variables using the machine learning approach of Zhang et al. (2025) to produce a best-estimate PBLHT at 10-minute resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulated Feasibility of 3D Lightning Mapping from Space

In addition to the awe it inspires, lightning can illuminate the microphysical processes hidden away within deep convection. The current generation of space-based lightning mapping uses mostly 2D optical imaging to connect overall flash characteristics to their parent storm dynamics, but are missing a dimension’s worth of information. With lightning now classified as an essential climate variable, future spaceborne mappers will need improved capabilities to take advantage of the 3D structure of lightning flashes to support meteorological and climate modeling. We report here on a study of the feasibility of implementing a radio frequency (RF)–based network of satellites for 3D lightning mapping in high resolution from low Earth orbit (LEO). Lightning sources are simulated using existing tools of the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA), modified for orbital detection, and spatially reconstructed using a Levenberg-Marquardt geolocation algorithm to assess sources of uncertainty in these solutions. We analyze the benefits and limitations of this approach compared to existing orbital and ground-based methods. Results of this study show that lightning can be mapped in 3D with a vertical location accuracy better than 2 km using as few as five satellites in LEO capable of measuring the time-of-arrival of impulsive RF signals in the very high frequency (VHF) band. The consequence of this study is that high-resolution, spaceborne 3D mapping of lightning is achievable across most of the globe, having crucial implications for our understanding of not only lightning, but also severe weather development, climate science, and more.

CubeSpark↗

Extreme Thunderstorms as Seen by Satellite

Extreme events by their nature fall outside the bounds of routine experience. With imperfect or ambiguous measuring systems, it is appropriate to question whether an unusual measurement represents an extreme event or is the result of instrument errors or other sources of noise. About three weeks after the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite began collecting data in Dec 1997, a thunderstorm was observed over northern Argentina with 85 GHz brightness temperatures below 50 K and 37 GHz brightness temperatures below 70 K (Zipser et al. 2006). These values are well below what had previously been observed from satellite sensors with lower resolution. The 37 GHz brightness temperatures are also well below those measured by TRMM for any other storm in the subsequent 16 years. Without corroborating evidence, it would be natural to suspect a problem with the instrument, or perhaps an irregularity with the platform during the first weeks of the satellite mission. But the TRMM satellite also carries a radar and a lightning sensor, both confirming the presence of an intense thunderstorm. The radar recorded 40+ dBZ (decibels relative to Z) reflectivity up to about 19 km altitude. More than 200 lightning flashes per minute were recorded. That same storm's 19 GHz brightness temperatures below 150 K would normally be interpreted as the result of a low-emissivity water surface (e.g., a lake, or flood waters) if not for the simultaneous measurements of such intense convection. This paper will examine records from TRMM and related satellite sensors including SSMI and AMSR-E to find the strongest signatures resulting from thunderstorms, and distinguishing those from sources of noise. The lowest brightness temperatures resulting from thunderstorms as seen by TRMM have been in Argentina in November and December. For SSMI sensors carried on five DMSP satellites examined so far, the lowest thunderstorm-related brightness temperatures have been from Argentina in November - December and from Minnesota in June-July. The Minnesota cases were associated with spotter reports of large hail, significant severe wind, and tornadoes. Those locations have the record holders for each satellite. This paper will show examples of cases with the lowest brightness temperatures, and map the locations of these and other storms with brightness temperatures nearly as low. Higher resolution data from the field program MC3E and possibly from IPHEX will be considered for context.

Cecil, Daniel J.↗

A geologic evaluation of thermal properties for the Elysium and Aeolis quadrangles of Mars

The results of an analysis of high-resolution thermal inertia data (obtained with the IR Thermal Mapper) for the Elysium and Aeolis quadrangles of Mars are presented. The results indicate that aeolian features, both with dark and light albedos relative to their surroundings, have thermal inertias higher than that of the surrounding terrains. On the other hand, terrains with distinctive surface relief do not have distinguishable thermal properties, even when these terrains can be spatially resolved from surrounding units. Thermal inertias for individual geologic units within the two quadrangles appear to be more strongly controlled by the location of the terrain in either the northern plains or the southern highlands than by properties intrinsic to the unit. The similarity of regional thermal properties observed at both high and low spatial resolutions indicates a regional homogeneity of much of the Martian surface at scales larger than 5 km.

Zimbelman, James R.↗

Detection of Obstacles in Monocular Image Sequences

The ability to detect and locate runways/taxiways and obstacles in images captured using on-board sensors is an essential first step in the automation of low-altitude flight, landing, takeoff, and taxiing phase of aircraft navigation. Automation of these functions under different weather and lighting situations, can be facilitated by using sensors of different modalities. An aircraft-based Synthetic Vision System (SVS), with sensors of different modalities mounted on-board, complements the current ground-based systems in functions such as detection and prevention of potential runway collisions, airport surface navigation, and landing and takeoff in all weather conditions. In this report, we address the problem of detection of objects in monocular image sequences obtained from two types of sensors, a Passive Millimeter Wave (PMMW) sensor and a video camera mounted on-board a landing aircraft. Since the sensors differ in their spatial resolution, and the quality of the images obtained using these sensors is not the same, different approaches are used for detecting obstacles depending on the sensor type. These approaches are described separately in two parts of this report. The goal of the first part of the report is to develop a method for detecting runways/taxiways and objects on the runway in a sequence of images obtained from a moving PMMW sensor. Since the sensor resolution is low and the image quality is very poor, we propose a model-based approach for detecting runways/taxiways. We use the approximate runway model and the position information of the camera provided by the Global Positioning System (GPS) to define regions of interest in the image plane to search for the image features corresponding to the runway markers. Once the runway region is identified, we use histogram-based thresholding to detect obstacles on the runway and regions outside the runway. This algorithm is tested using image sequences simulated from a single real PMMW image.

Kasturi, Rangachar↗

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part I: Dynamical Downscaling

Abstract New simulations at 12-km grid spacing with the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model nested in the MPI Earth System Model (ESM) are used to quantify possible changes in wind power generation potential as a result of global warming. Annual capacity factors (CF; measures of electrical power production) computed by applying a power curve to hourly wind speeds at wind turbine hub height from this simulation are also used to illustrate the pitfalls in seeking to infer changes in wind power generation directly from low-spatial-resolution and time-averaged ESM output. WRF-derived CF are evaluated using observed daily CF from operating wind farms. The spatial correlation coefficient between modeled and observed mean CF is 0.65, and the root-mean-square error is 5.4 percentage points. Output from the MPI-WRF Model chain also captures some of the seasonal variability and the probability distribution of daily CF at operating wind farms. Projections of mean annual CF (CF A ) indicate no change to 2050 in the southern Great Plains and Northeast. Interannual variability of CF A increases in the Midwest, and CF A declines by up to 2 percentage points in the northern Great Plains. The probability of wind droughts (extended periods with anomalously low production) and wind bonus periods (high production) remains unchanged over most of the eastern United States. The probability of wind bonus periods exhibits some evidence of higher values over the Midwest in the 2040s, whereas the converse is true over the northern Great Plains. Significance Statement Wind energy is playing an increasingly important role in low-carbon-emission electricity generation. It is a “weather dependent” renewable energy source, and thus changes in the global atmosphere may cause changes in regional wind power production (PP) potential. We use PP data from operating wind farms to demonstrate that regional simulations exhibit skill in capturing actual power production. Projections to the middle of this century indicate that over most of North America east of the Rocky Mountains annual expected PP is largely unchanged, as is the probability of extended periods of anomalously high or low production. Any small declines in annual PP are of much smaller magnitude than changes due to technological innovation over the last two decades.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Chandra Observations of NGC 4698: A Seyfert 2 Galaxy with No Absorption

We present Chandra ACIS-S observations of the enigmatic Seyfert 2 galaxy NGC 4698. This object, together with several other bona fide Seyfert 2 galaxies, shows no absorption in the low spatial resolution ASCA data, in contrast to the standard unification models. Our Chandra observations of NGC 4698 probe directly the nucleus, allowing us to check whether nearby sources contaminate the ASCA spectrum. Indeed, the Chandra observations show that the ASCA spectrum is dominated by two nearby AGNs. The X-ray flux of NGC 4698 is dominated by a nuclear source with luminosity L(sub 0.3-8 keV) approximately 10(exp 39) ergs per second, coincident with the radio nucleus. Its spectrum is well represented by a power law, GAMMA approximately equal to 2.2, obscured by a small column density of 5 x 10(exp 20) per square centimeter, suggesting that NGC 4698 is an atypical Seyfert galaxy. On the basis of its low luminosity, we then interpret NGC 4698 as a Seyfert galaxy that lacks a broad-line region.

Georgantopoulos, I.↗