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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

The application of sensitivity analysis to models of large scale physiological systems

A survey of the literature of sensitivity analysis as it applies to biological systems is reported as well as a brief development of sensitivity theory. A simple population model and a more complex thermoregulatory model illustrate the investigatory techniques and interpretation of parameter sensitivity analysis. The role of sensitivity analysis in validating and verifying models, and in identifying relative parameter influence in estimating errors in model behavior due to uncertainty in input data is presented. This analysis is valuable to the simulationist and the experimentalist in allocating resources for data collection. A method for reducing highly complex, nonlinear models to simple linear algebraic models that could be useful for making rapid, first order calculations of system behavior is presented.

Leonard, J. I.↗

Application of Zimmerman flutter-margin criterion to a wind tunnel model

The Zimmerman flutter margin criterion was studied by applying it to data obtained from a wind tunnel model. The sensitivity of the flutter margin parameter was explored with a parametric trend study and by calculation of the derivatives with respect to the input frequency and damping parameters. The criterion is simple in concept and application, and it serves as a good flutter onset predictor because it gives a nearly linear variation with dynamic pressure. However, accurate values of both frequency and damping of both modes involved in flutter are required for reliable flutter onset prediction. The simplified version using only frequencies gave a highly nonconservative flutter onset in one case and should not be used in general.

Bennett, R. M.↗

Directional handling qualities requirements for nap-of-the-earth tasks

A piloted similator experiment designed to investigate directional axis handling qualities requirements for low-speed and hover tasks conducted by a scout/attack helicopter is described. Included were the directional characteristics of various candidate light helicopter family (LHX) configurations. The test also focused on conventional single main/tail rotor configurations where the first-order effects that contribute to the loss of tail rotor control experienced by the OH-58 series aircraft were modeled. Two types of yaw stability and control augmentation systems were implemented: washed-out yaw rate feedback and shaped control input, and a yaw rate command, heading-hold system. The results of the experiment indicate that rotorcraft configurations with high directional gust sensitivity require more yaw damping to maintain satisfactory handling qualities during nap-of-the-earth (NOE) flying tasks. It was also determined that both yaw damping and control response are critical handling qualities parameters in performing the air-to-air target acquisition and tracking task. The lack of substantial yaw damping and larger values of gust sensitivity increased the possibility of loss of directional control at low airspeeds for the tail rotor configurations.

Bivens, C. C.↗

Method and apparatus for enhancing laser absorption sensitivity

A simple optomechanical method and apparatus is described for substantially reducing the amplitude of unwanted multiple interference fringes which often limit the sensitivities of tunable laser absorption spectrometers. An exterior cavity is defined by partially transmissible surfaces such as a laser exit plate, a detector input, etc. That cavity is spoiled by placing an oscillating plate in the laser beam. For tunable diode laser spectroscopy in the mid-infrared region, a Brewster-plate spoiler allows the harmonic detection of absorptances of less than 10 to the -5 in a single laser scan. Improved operation is achieved without subtraction techniques, without complex laser frequency modulation, and without distortion of the molecular lineshape signal. The technique is applicable to tunable lasers operating from UV to IR wavelengths and in spectrometers which employ either short or long pathlengths, including the use of retroreflectors or multipass cells.

Webster, Christopher R.↗

Seasonal variation of surface radiation budget derived from International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project C1 data

Surface radiation budget data are presented for the midseasonal months of July and October of 1983 and January and April of 1984. These data allow the examination of geographical and seasonal variations of the entire surface radiation budget from pole to pole. The latest flux estimation techniques have been used along with data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project and the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. Regional, zonal, and hemispheric distributions of the downward and net components of both shortwave and longwave fluxes and of the net total surface fluxes are determined. Seasonal flux variation per region, expressed as flux range, is illustrated for these components also. The estimated fluxes appear to be accurate to about 16 W/sq m on a global average, based on sensitivity analyses and comparisons with ground data. An analysis of flux errors showed that most of the error was attributable to errors in input data.

Darnell, Wayne L.↗

A Monte Carlo study of photochemical model uncertainties affecting the calculation of subsonic perturbations in the upper troposphere

Monte Carlo methods are frequently applied to the evaluation of uncertainties in models with multiple inputs that themselves have associated imprecisions. In the case of photochemical models used to evaluate changes in O3 or OH, inputs analyzed include rate coefficients measured in the laboratory, and chemical and physical constituents measured in the atmosphere. The Monte Carlo method was used with the 1-dimensional GSFC tropospheric photochemical model to examine uncertainty propagation to calculation of NO(x) and the major oxidants (O3, OH) in the upper troposphere. In all cases chemical kinetics inputs are varied and the NO(x) perturbation of a subsonic fleet is simulated. A series of model runs is used to explore sensitivities of model-computed parameters to other parameters: heterogeneous processes, the uncertainty in upper tropospheric H2O vapor measurements, aircraft emissions at different latitudes.

Thompson, Anne M.↗

Uncertainty Analysis of Decomposing Polyurethane Foam

Sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are necessary to determine where to allocate resources for improved predictions in support of our nation's nuclear safety mission. Yet, sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are not commonly performed on complex combustion models because the calculations are time consuming, CPU intensive, nontrivial exercises that can lead to deceptive results. To illustrate these ideas, a variety of sensitivity/uncertainty analyses were used to determine the uncertainty associated with thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam exposed to high radiative flux boundary conditions. The polyurethane used in this study is a rigid closed-cell foam used as an encapsulant. Related polyurethane binders such as Estane are used in many energetic materials of interest to the JANNAF community. The complex, finite element foam decomposition model used in this study has 25 input parameters that include chemistry, polymer structure, and thermophysical properties. The response variable was selected as the steady-state decomposition front velocity calculated as the derivative of the decomposition front location versus time. An analytical mean value sensitivity/uncertainty (MV) analysis was used to determine the standard deviation by taking numerical derivatives of the response variable with respect to each of the 25 input parameters. Since the response variable is also a derivative, the standard deviation was essentially determined from a second derivative that was extremely sensitive to numerical noise. To minimize the numerical noise, 50-micrometer element dimensions and approximately 1-msec time steps were required to obtain stable uncertainty results. As an alternative method to determine the uncertainty and sensitivity in the decomposition front velocity, surrogate response surfaces were generated for use with a constrained Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique. Two surrogate response surfaces were investigated: 1) a linear surrogate response surface (LIN) and 2) a quadratic response surface (QUAD). The LHS techniques do not require derivatives of the response variable and are subsequently relatively insensitive to numerical noise. To compare the LIN and QUAD methods to the MV method, a direct LHS analysis (DLHS) was performed using the full grid and timestep resolved finite element model. The surrogate response models (LIN and QUAD) are shown to give acceptable values of the mean and standard deviation when compared to the fully converged DLHS model.

Hobbs, Michael L.↗

MXER Simulation Study (Appendix B)

The task of prediction of the motion of a momentum exchange system with a 9-digit accuracy is extremely challenging, and it is relentlessly testing our ability to gain fundamental insights into the nature of the tether dynamics in this system. It has been show that the modal decomposition approach developed in the first part of this study is a very powerful and precise tool for the simulation of the dynamics of momentum exchange tethers. However, to get a prediction with required accuracy using this tool, one must have precise inputs, including the initial state, system parameters, and the environmental models. In simulations, the tether tip positioning has been observed to be quite sensitive to even small variations of the parameters involved in the calculations. It is therefore imperative that precise estimation and control algorithms be developed to compensate for the inevitable uncertainties and support high precision rendezvous.

Levin, E. M.↗

Assessment of Transition Modeling Capability in OVERFLOW with Emphasis on Swept-Wing Configurations

In preparation for comparisons with data obtained from the recently concluded experiments in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center on the new common research model with natural laminar flow (CRM-NLF), an assessment of the current transition modeling capability in the NASA OVERFLOW 2.2o code has been carried out. A combination of the available experimental data and linear stability analysis is used to evaluate the accuracy and robustness of these models for selected swept-wing type configurations, with significant crossflow. An additional goal for this work involves providing a comparative assessment of the relevant transition models in the context of a single flow solver and identifying model limitations as well as the potential for future improvements that would help strengthen the physical basis of such transition models. Included in this investigation is an assessment of the sensitivities of the underlying transition models to grid resolution (wall-normal, as well as streamwise and spanwise) and the values of extra input parameters such as the level of surface roughness and freestream turbulence variables. The flow configurations targeted in this assessment include the NASA NLF(2)-0415 swept-wing configuration, the sickle-shaped wing introduced by the Technical University of Braunschweig, and the wing-body configuration of the CRM model from the fourth and fifth AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshops.

Freestream velocity↗

Analysis of sensitivity and rapid hybridization of a multiplexed Microbial Detection Microarray

Microarrays have proven to be useful in rapid detection of many viruses and bacteria. Pathogen detection microarrays have been used to diagnose viral and bacterial infections in clinical samples and to evaluate the safety of biological drug materials. A multiplexed version of the Lawrence Livermore Microbial Detection Array (LLMDA) was developed and evaluated with minimum detectable concentrations for pure unamplified DNA viruses, along with mixtures of viral and bacterial DNA subjected to different whole genome amplification protocols. In addition the performance of the array was tested when hybridization time was reduced from 17 h to 1 h. The LLMDA was able to detect unamplified vaccinia virus DNA at a concentration of 14 fM, or 100,000 genome copies in 12 μL of sample. With amplification, positive identification was made with only 100 genome copies of input material. When tested against human stool samples from patients with acute gastroenteritis, the microarray detected common gastroenteritis viral and bacterial infections such as rotavirus and E. coli. Accurate detection was found but with a 4-fold drop in sensitivity for a 1 h compared to a 17 h hybridization. The array detected 2 ng (equivalent concentration of 15.6 fM) of labeled DNA from a virus with 1 h hybridization without any amplification, and was able to identify the components of a mixture of viruses and bacteria at species and in some cases strain level resolution. Sensitivity improved by three orders of magnitude with random whole genome amplification prior to hybridization; for instance, the array detected a DNA virus with only 20 fg or 100 genome copies as input. This multiplexed microarray is an efficient tool to analyze clinical and environmental samples for the presence of multiple viral and bacterial pathogens rapidly.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Application of Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis to a Large System Dynamics Model

Variance-based sensitivity methods can provide insights into large computational models. We present a novel application of sensitivity analysis to the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) a large and complex system dynamics model of the developing biofuels industry in the United States. We apply a two-stage sensitivity approach consisting of an initial sensitivity screening, followed by a variance decomposition approach. Identifying key system levers and quantifying their strength is not straightforward in complex system dynamics models that have numerous feedbacks and nonlinear results. Variance-based sensitivity analysis (VBSA) offers a systematic, global approach to assessing system dynamics models because it addresses nonlinear responses and interactive effects. Especially when a large model's size makes manual exploration of the input space difficult and time-consuming, the approach can help to provide a comprehensive understanding of interactions that drive model behaviors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modulated voltage metastable ionization detector

The output current from a metastable ionization detector (MID) is applied to a modulation voltage circuit. An adjustment is made to balance out the background current, and an output current, above background, is applied to an input of a strip chart recorder. For low level concentrations, i.e., low detected output current, the ionization potential will be at a maximum and the metastable ionization detector will operate at its most sensitive level. When the detected current from the metastable ionization detector increases above a predetermined threshold level, a voltage control circuit is activated which turns on a high voltage transistor which acts to reduce the ionization potential. The ionization potential applied to the metastable ionization detector is then varied so as to maintain the detected signal level constant. The variation in ionization potential is now related to the concentration of the constituent and a representative amplitude is applied to another input of said strip chart recorder.

Carle, G. C.↗

FY24 Report on Water NSTF Testing: Lower Tank Inlet Piping Configuration

The following report serves as a summary of the accomplishments and testing results by the Natural convection Shutdown heat removal Test Facility (NSTF) experimental program over the past 12-month period. A major activity included reconfiguration of the chimney piping geometry which altered the discharge position into the tank from the original 50% tank height to a new lower position at a 10.9% tank height. This modification increases the volume of available coolant thus extending long-term operating capacity, however also results in a decreased liquid driving head which has the potential to reduce the natural circulation efficiency and decrease overall performance. Examination of the tradeoffs for these two configurations is an area of interest for RCCS designers and drove planned test activities this year. Ten matrix tests were performed in FY24, totaling 195 hours of heated operations and 12.9 MWh of electrical heating throughout the year, with eight classified as Accepted per NQA-1 and two classified as Trending. Testing prior to the facility reconfiguration examined the facility response to throttling at the tank inlet, demonstrating increased sensitivity of flow instabilities to throttling within the two-phase region when compared to throttling at the lower sensitivity single-phase inlet region. Testing after the chimney reconfiguration began with a baseline test at conditions of 80% inventory fill and prototypic thermal power input of 2.1 MW t . In addition to establishing a reference for nominal system behavior and performance, repeat testing with multiple subsequent runs demonstrated strong repeatability between tests performed at the same conditions in this new configuration. These tests also examined if influences would occur to system behavior with installation of new higher-resolution instrumentation within the upper chimney. In this critical region where boiling and flashing phenomena dominate, the test results provided confidence that the new instrumentation does not uncharacteristically influence the observed behaviors. An inventory parametric series was then initiated to examine system behavior with the new chimney configuration at six varying initial inventory levels, ranging from high 80% to low 20% fill. Two-phase oscillations with similar peak and mean flow rates were observed when comparing to the previous mid tank configuration. Generally, similar system response trends with inventory were also observed, such as two phase oscillations suppressing as inventories were lowered. However, in one absolute inventory comparison at the highest fill of 80%, flow oscillations saw a gradual growth over the 4 hours of two-phase operation in the new lower tank inlet configuration, opposite of the gradual dampening observed in the mid tank inlet configuration. This can be attributed to, in part, a greater hydrostatic head pressure above the two-phase discharge region where the boiling front is developed. Furthermore, the change resulted in greater sensitivity to liquid degassing phenomena during single-phase heating, causing loop instabilities to form which trigged moderate flow degradation during the period approaching saturation and boiling conditions. This behavior had been observed previously under some conditions but was a common occurrence in recent testing with the newer lower tank inlet configuration. Initial observations from these first data sets suggest an overall larger window of stability for the mid tank inlet configuration compared to the lower tank inlet. Lastly, the lowest inventory fill test was repeated over an extended testing window to examine depletion behavior. Natural circulation flow and effective heat removal performance were observed during most of the testing period; only after the tank became fully drained (0% fill) did flow stagnate and violent geysering events occur. This early observation confirms one relative advantage over the mid tank inlet configuration, which stagnated under comparable conditions at ~20% inventory remaining in the tank.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Mosaic-Detector-Based Fluorescence Spectral Imager

A battery-powered, pen-sized, portable instrument for measuring molecular fluorescence spectra of chemical and biological samples in the field has been proposed. Molecular fluorescence spectroscopy is among the techniques used most frequently in laboratories to analyze compositions of chemical and biological samples. Heretofore, it has been possible to measure fluorescence spectra of molecular species at relative concentrations as low as parts per billion (ppb), with a few nm spectral resolution. The proposed instrument would include a planar array (mosaic) of detectors, onto which a fluorescence spectrum would be spatially mapped. Unlike in the larger laboratory-type molecular fluorescence spectrometers, mapping of wavelengths to spatial positions would be accomplished without use of relatively bulky optical parts. The proposed instrument is expected to be sensitive enough to enable measurement of spectra of chemical species at relative concentrations <1 ppb, with spectral resolution that could be tailored by design to be comparable to a laboratory molecular fluorescence spectrometer. The proposed instrument (see figure) would include a button-cell battery and a laser diode, which would generate the monochromatic ultraviolet light needed to excite fluorescence in a sample. The sample would be held in a cell bounded by far-ultraviolet-transparent quartz or optical glass. The detector array would be, more specifically, a complementary metal oxide/ semiconductor or charge-coupled- device imaging photodetector array, the photodetectors of which would be tailored to respond to light in the wavelength range of the fluorescence spectrum to be measured. The light-input face of the photodetector array would be covered with a matching checkerboard array of multilayer thin film interference filters, such that each pixel in the array would be sensitive only to light in a spectral band narrow enough so as not to overlap significantly with the band of an adjacent pixel. The wavelength interval between adjacent pixels (and, thus, the spectral resolution) would typically be chosen by design to be approximately equal to the width of the total fluorescence wavelength range of interest divided by the number of pixels. The unitary structure comprising the photodetector array overlaid with the matching filter array would be denoted a hyperspectral mosaic detector (HMD) array.

Son, Kyung-Ah↗

The Primordial Inflation Explorer (PIXIE)

The Primordial Inflation Explorer is an Explorer-class mission to measure the gravity-wave signature of primordial inflation through its distinctive imprint on the linear polarization of the cosmic microwave background. PIXIE uses an innovative optical design to achieve background-limited sensitivity in 400 spectral channels spanning 2.5 decades in frequency from 30 GHz to 6 THz (1 cm to 50 micron wavelength). Multi-moded non-imaging optics feed a polarizing Fourier Transform Spectrometer to produce a set of interference fringes, proportional to the difference spectrum between orthogonal linear polarizations from the two input beams. Multiple levels of symmetry and signal modulation combine to reduce the instrumental signature and confusion from unpolarized sources to negligible levels. PIXIE will map the full sky in Stokes I, Q, and U parameters with angular resolution 2.6 deg and sensitivity 0.2 μK per 1 deg square pixel. The principal science goal is the detection and characterization of linear polarization from an inflationary epoch in the early universe, with tensor-to-scalar ratio r less than 10(exp −3) at 5 standard deviations. In addition, PIXIE will measure the absolute frequency spectrum to constrain physical processes ranging from inflation to the nature of the first stars to the physical conditions within the interstellar medium of the Galaxy. We describe the PIXIE instrument and mission architecture with an emphasis on the expected level of systematic error suppression.

Primordial Inflation Explorer is an Explorer-class↗

A novel technique for response function determination of shear sensitive cholesteric liquid crystals for boundary layer investigations

A description of the design and setup of an experimental technique for measurement of the response function in shear sensitive liquid crystals has been reported. Utilizing the selective reflection characteristics of cholesteric liquid crystals, the method is capable of measuring the delay, rise, and relaxation times in response to a given dynamic shear stress as a function of the wavelength of the incident light. Application of a step input shear stress results in a liquid crystal time response that can be described as consisting of an initial delay, a shear induced helix deformation, and a relaxation to the initial state through diffusion processes. The method has been used for quantitative calibration of a shear sensitive liquid crystal by observing the peak in reflected light intensity, at a given wavelength, as a function of the shear stress.

Parmar, D. S.↗

Analysis of Cislunar Transfers Departing from a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit Using Solar Electric Propulsion

An analysis is completed to support the design of optimized trajectories of a massive spacecraft from an L2 Southern NRHO to a Distant Retrograde Orbit and a L2 Northern NRHO using a Solar Electric Propulsion System (SEP). An optimized trajectory is developed for each transfer for a 54t spacecraft utilizing a 26.6kW SEP system. A parameterization is developed for each reference transfer to allow analysis of the sensitivity of the trajectory to changes in vehicle mass, SEP power, and Ion Propulsion System (IPS) performance. Required Dv for each transfer is characterized by the initial acceleration of the spacecraft, thus allowing trajectories to be assessed over a wide range of vehicle mass and SEP power inputs. This approach is shown to be useful in identifying optimal IPS configurations for minimizing propellant requirements for the reference transfers. Additionally, the analysis identifies regions where increases in SEP power do not immediately result in a corresponding decrease in required propellant as well as highlights the relative sensitivities of propellant requirements to changes in IPS thrust and specific impulse.

low thrust↗

Litter quantity, litter chemistry, and soil texture control changes in soil organic carbon fractions under bioenergy cropping systems of the North Central U.S.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) storage is a critical component of the overall sustainability of bioenergy cropping systems. Predicting the influence of cropping systems on SOC under diverse scenarios requires a mechanistic understanding of the underlying processes driving SOC accumulation and loss. We used a density fractionation technique to isolate three SOC fractions that are conceptualized to vary in SOC protection from decomposition. The free light fraction (FLF) is particulate SOC that is present in the inter-aggregate soil matrix, the occluded light fraction (OLF) is contained within aggregates, and the heavy fraction (HF) is associated with minerals. We evaluated surface (0 to 10 cm depth) SOC fraction changes from baseline conditions 5 years after biofuel cropping system establishment at two temperate sites with contrasting soil textures. The biofuel cropping systems included no-till maize, switchgrass, prairie, and hybrid poplar. The FLF concentration (g fraction C g bulk soil-1) did not change significantly from baseline levels under any of the cropping systems at either site after 5 years. Except for poplar, OLF concentrations were reduced in all systems at the site with coarse-textured soils and maintained at the site with fine-textured soils. In poplar systems, OLF concentrations were maintained on coarse-textured soils and increased on fine-textured soils. The HF concentrations also increased under poplar on the coarse-textured soil. A structural equation model indicated that OLF concentrations increased with lower litter C:N, and HF concentrations increased with greater litter quantity and lower litter C:N mass ratios. C:N increased over time within all SOC fractions, suggesting that all pools are sensitive to land-use change on sub-decadal timescales. In agreement with modern SOC theory, our empirical results indicate that increasing litter input quantity and promoting plant species with low C:N litter may improve SOC storage in aggregate and mineral-associated soil fractions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗