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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

The Sm-(146,147)-Nd-(142,143) formation interval for the lunar mantle and implications for lunar evolution

Small anomalies in the isotopic abundance of Nd-142 have been measured for two A17 high-Ti basalts, ilmenite basalt 12056, olivine-pigeonite basalt 12039, feldspathic basalt 12038, and two KREEP basalts. These anomalies correlate with Sm-147/Nd-144 for the basalt source regions as calculated from initial Nd-143/Nd-144 ratios in the basalts, and are interpreted to be from decay of Sm-146 (t sub 1/2 = 103 Ma) in distinct lunar mantle reservoirs. A three-stage model for evolution of Nd-143/Nd-144 and Nd-142/Nd-144 yields reservoir Sm-147/Nd-144 ratios which, with the Nd-142/Nd-144 ratios in the basalts, form a 'mantle isochron' giving a lunar mantle formation interval of 94+2230 Ma (2c(rho)). Calculated reservoir Sm/Nd ratios are in the range expected from some earlier models of basalt petrogenesis. The isochron value of Nd-142/Nd-144 at Sm-147/Nd-144 sub CHUR = 0.1967 is within error limits of the average Nd-142/Nd-144 measured for an L6 chondrite, an H5 chondrite, and the Orgueil carbonaceous chondrite. Evolution of Nd-143 and Nd-142 for high-Ti basalt 70135 was modeled precisely, starting from chondritic relative REE and Nd-isotopic abundances and using the initial (Sm-146/Sm-144) sub 0 ratio inferred from a previous study of angrite LEW86010 as the initial solar system value of this parameter. We infer that the initial Sm/Nd ratio in precursor lunar materials was very nearly chondritic (within approximately 8 percent) prior to lunar differentiation.

Nyquist, L. E.↗

How Dead are Dead Galaxies? Mid-Infrared Fluxes of Quiescent Galaxies at Redshift 0.3< Z< 2.5: Implications for Star Formation Rates and Dust Heating

We investigate star formation rates of quiescent galaxies at high redshift (0.3 < z < 2.5) using 3D-HST WFC3 grism spectroscopy and Spitzer mid-infrared data. We select quiescent galaxies on the basis of the widely used UVJ color-color criteria. Spectral energy distribution fitting (rest frame optical and near-IR) indicates very low star formation rates for quiescent galaxies (sSFR approx. 10(exp −12)/yr. However, SED fitting can miss star formation if it is hidden behind high dust obscuration and ionizing radiation is re-emitted in the mid-infrared. It is therefore fundamental to measure the dust-obscured SFRs with a mid-IR indicator. We stack the MIPS-24 micron images of quiescent objects in five redshift bins centered on z = 0.5, 0.9, 1.2, 1.7, 2.2 and perform aperture photometry. Including direct 24 micron detections, we find sSFR approx. 10(exp −11.9) × (1 + z)(sup 4)/yr. These values are higher than those indicated by SED fitting, but at each redshift they are 20-40 times lower than those of typical star forming galaxies. The true SFRs of quiescent galaxies might be even lower, as we show that the mid-IR fluxes can be due to processes unrelated to ongoing star formation, such as cirrus dust heated by old stellar populations and circumstellar dust. Our measurements show that star formation quenching is very efficient at every redshift. The measured SFR values are at z > 1.5 marginally consistent with the ones expected from gas recycling (assuming that mass loss from evolved stars refuels star formation) and well above that at lower redshifts.

Galaxies↗

Observing Tsunamis in the Ionosphere Using Ground Based GPS Measurements

Ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) show variations consistent with atmospheric internal gravity waves caused by ocean tsunamis following recent seismic events, including the Tohoku tsunami of March 11, 2011. We observe fluctuations correlated in time, space, and wave properties with this tsunami in TEC estimates processed using JPL's Global Ionospheric Mapping Software. These TEC estimates were band-pass filtered to remove ionospheric TEC variations with periods outside the typical range of internal gravity waves caused by tsunamis. Observable variations in TEC appear correlated with the Tohoku tsunami near the epicenter, at Hawaii, and near the west coast of North America. Disturbance magnitudes are 1-10% of the background TEC value. Observations near the epicenter are compared to estimates of expected tsunami-driven TEC variations produced by Embry Riddle Aeronautical University's Spectral Full Wave Model, an atmosphere-ionosphere coupling model, and found to be in good agreement. The potential exists to apply these detection techniques to real-time GPS TEC data, providing estimates of tsunami speed and amplitude that may be useful for future early warning systems.

total electron content (TEC)↗

Design of an Acoustic Shielding Flap Concept with Prediction and Validation

As part of a NATO task group, NASA has designed a noise reduction technology called a Shielding Flap for application to a hybrid wing body aircraft concept. The design drivers and objectives for this technology are outlined in this paper. Design parameters are defined, and recently-developed NASA software for prediction of acoustic scattering is used to investigate the expected performance of the technology for a range of parameter values. Detailed scattering computational results are presented for several simulated noise sources and for many variations of the shielding flap concept. A selection of computational results is compared with experimental data collected in the NASA Langley Quiet Flow Facility. Overall, the results indicate that the Shielding Flap has strong potential to reduce aft-radiated noise, which was a primary design objective, by shielding sound from the simulated sources while also shielding sound that is scattered from the main airframe.

Propulsion Airframe Aeroacoustics↗

Statistical Approaches for Pebble Bed Reactor Operations and Safeguards

The design of pebble bed reactors (PBRs) and their method of operation align more closely with statistical approaches used in manufacturing and process control than traditional safeguards statistical approaches. The reason is PBRs will employ a nondestructive assay (NDA) measurement (burnup measurement system [BUMS]) that is part of the fuel handling system supporting discharge decisions in addition to the reactor code which monitor performance. The integration of these two approaches provides the opportunity to monitor reactor performance statistically for both operations and safeguards in ways not achievable using other reactor designs. For light water reactors (LWRs), knowledge about reactor code performance in predicting irradiated special nuclear material (SNM) content historically was only achieved from special measurement campaigns or from fuel reprocessing. Conversely, through statistical comparison of the BUMS with the reactor code-predicted values, PBRs can achieve this in real time. The resulting SNM distribution is an indicator of reactor performance because factors such as transit time and path of the pebble fuel through the reactor determine the plutonium production and uranium depletion. By analyzing the predicted and measured values, opportunities exist to adjust operating parameters, fuel design, and other characteristics to optimize performance and fuel utilization. From a safeguards perspective, this approach also provides the information necessary to validate declared values and evaluate whether the reactor is being operated as expected. This paper outlines statistical approaches for PBRs that can be used to support both operations and safeguards.

Ball, Cory↗

Small Launch Vehicle Trade Space Definition: Development of a Zero Level Mass Estimation Tool with Trajectory Validation

Recent high level interest in the capability of small launch vehicles has placed significant demand on determining the trade space these vehicles occupy. This has led to the development of a zero level analysis tool that can quickly determine the minimum expected vehicle gross liftoff weight (GLOW) in terms of vehicle stage specific impulse (Isp) and propellant mass fraction (pmf) for any given payload value. Utilizing an extensive background in Earth to orbit trajectory experience a total necessary delta v the vehicle must achieve can be estimated including relevant loss terms. This foresight into expected losses allows for more specific assumptions relating to the initial estimates of thrust to weight values for each stage. This tool was further validated against a trajectory model, in this case the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST), to determine if the initial sizing delta v was adequate to meet payload expectations. Presented here is a description of how the tool is setup and the approach the analyst must take when using the tool. Also, expected outputs which are dependent on the type of small launch vehicle being sized will be displayed. The method of validation will be discussed as well as where the sizing tool fits into the vehicle design process.

Waters, Eric D.↗

Microwave Conductivity of Laser Ablated YBa2Cu3O7-delta Superconducting Films and Its Relation to Microstrip Transmission Line Performance

We report on the values of the microwave conductivity in the normal (sigma(subN)) and superconducting (sigma*=sigma(sub1)-j sigma(sub2)) states of two laser ablated YBa2CU3O7(sigma) thin films at 35 GHz, in the temperature range from 20 to 300 K. The films 0.7 and 0.4 micrometers) were deposited on LaA10(sub3) by laser ablation. The conductivity was obtained from the microwave power transmitted through the films and assuming a two-fluid model. Values of sigma(subN) approximately 2.3 X 10(exp5) S/m at room temperature for both films, and of sigma(sub1) approximately 6.3 X 10(exp5) and 4.6 X 10(exp5) S/m at temperatures around 80 K were obtained for the 0.7 and 0.4 micrometer films respectively. For sigma(sub2) values of 4.9 X 10(exp6) and 5.4 X 10(exp6) S/m were obtained for the 0.7 and 0.4 micrometer films at 80 K. The expected conductor losses and Q-factor of a superconducting ring resonator were calculated using these conductivity values. The theoretical values were then compared with the experimental results obtained for a resonator fabricated from one of these films.

Bhasin, K. B.↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Solar Energetic Particle Events

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region's magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region's rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region's present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region's expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region's recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

Falconer, David A.↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗

Numerical Modelling of a Two-Body Point Absorber Featuring Variable Geometry

This work presents a novel wave energy converter (WEC) device concept that incorporates variable geometry modules into a two-body point absorber type WEC. The variable geometry modules consist of air inflatable bags in the surface float and a water inflatable ring in the reaction body. The variable geometry floats are able to provide greater control over the device hydrodynamics; they can be inflated or deflated to emphasize either power absorption or load shedding. The device geometry is controlled in a quasi-static fashion, while the power take-off (PTO) unit is controlled on a wave-to-wave timescale. The surface float is tethered directly to the submerged reaction body through PTO tether lines. A linear time-domain analysis, conducted using open-source Wave Energy Converter (WEC-Sim) software, was used to estimate the absorbed power of the WEC in sea states defined by the Wave Energy Prize. WEC power performance was weighted against the expected capital cost of building the load bearing structure of the device, providing an estimated ACE value. The inclusion of the variable geometry modules was shown to be effective in altering the device geometry to improve power capture with a near proportional increase in expected costs, providing a nearly constant power-to-cost ratio.

cost of energy↗

The impact of Doppler lidar wind observations on a single-level meteorological analysis

Through the use of observation operators, modern data assimilation systems have the capability to ingest observations of quantities that are not themselves model variables, but are mathematically related to those variables. An example of this are the so-called LOS (line of sight) winds that a Doppler wind Lidar can provide. The model - or data assimilation system - needs information about both components of the horizontal wind vectors, whereas the observations in this case only provide the projection of the wind vector onto a given direction. The analyzed value is then calculated essentially based on a comparison between the observation itself and the model-simulated value of the observed quantity. However, in order to assess the expected impact of such an observing system, it is important to examine the extent to which a meteorological analysis can be constrained by the LOS winds. The answer to this question depends on the fundamental character of the atmospheric flow fields that are analyzed, but more importantly it also depends on the real and assumed error covariance characteristics of these fields. A single-level wind analysis system designed to explore these issues has been built at the NASA Data Assimilation Office. In this system, simulated wind observations can be evaluated in terms of their impact on the analysis quality under various assumptions about their spatial distribution and error characteristics and about the error covariance of the background fields. The basic design of the system will be presented along with experimental results obtained with it. In particular, the value of simultaneously measuring LOS winds along two different directions for a given location will be discussed.

Riishojgaard, L. P.↗

New determination of the branching ratio of the structure dependent radiative K + → e + ν e γ

The branching ratio of the structure dependent (SD) radiative K + → e + ν e γ decay relative to that of the K + → e + ν e (γ) decay including the internal bremsstrahlung (IB) process (K e2 (γ) ) has been measured in the J-PARC E36 experiment using plastic scintillator/lead sandwich detectors, in contrast to the previous E36 measurement, which used a CsI(Tl) calorimeter. In the analysis, the effect of IB was also taken into account in the SD radiative decay as $K$$^{SD}_{e2γ(γ)}$. By combining the new data with the previous E36 result after revision for the IB correction for $K$$^{SD}_{e2γ(γ)}$, a new value Br($K$$^{SD}_{e2γ(γ)}$)/Br(Ke 2(γ) ) = 1.20 ± 0.07 has e2γ(γ) e2γ(γ) been determined. This is consistent with a recent lattice QCD calculation, but larger than the expectation of Chiral Perturbation Theory (ChPT) at order O(p 4 ) and the previous KLOE value. Using the method to relate form factor and branching ratio described in the KLOE paper, the present result is also consistent with the form factor prediction based on a gauged nonlocal chiral quark model, but larger than that from ChPT at order O(p 6 ).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Investigating capacity credit sensitivity to reliability metrics and computational methodologies

Assigning capacity value to renewable energy sources (RES) is a challenge faced in planning their integration with the grid. The difficulties stem from the natural characteristics of variability and intermittency of wind and solar sources. The capacity credit (CC) analysis evaluates the system’s actual power output compared with a constant capacity generator, i.e., conventional generator and determines an effective capacity to use for planning and operation. Herein this paper presents different factors that could affect the CC of a system. Two methods are proposed to determine the CC, namely equivalent firm capacity (EFC) and effective load carrying capability (ELCC). Since these methods are based on satisfying reliability criteria, daily loss of load expectation (LOLE), hourly loss of load (LOLH), and expected energy not served (EENS) have been employed as indices. To obtain the CC value, both methods apply two techniques: traditional and optimization. Genetic algorithm (GA) is the optimization approach used in this paper. Then, this work compares the two techniques and shows the superior performance of the optimization approach. Two hybrid systems, stand-alone (SA) and grid-connected (GC) modes, are proposed and used as case studies. The hybrid systems consist of photovoltaic (PV), wind turbine (WT), and battery energy storage system (BESS). In this work, three different scenarios are used to compare capacity credit: system as a whole, only wind, and no batteries. Finally, sensitivity analysis is carried out to examine the impact of varying the wind speed, solar irradiation, and load. It is demonstrated that the choice of reliability index plays an important role in determining the capacity credit and it is shown that EENS is a more comprehensive and consistent index of reliability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

Falconer, David A.↗

Finding middle ground: Flow regimes designed for salmon and energy value

In regulated rivers, shaping seasonal flows to recover species at risk depends on understanding when to expect conflicts with competing water users and when their interests are aligned. Multi-objective optimization can be used to reveal such conflicts and commonalities. When species are involved, multi-objective optimization is challenged by the need to simulate complex species responses to flow regimes. Previously, we addressed that challenge by developing a simplified salmon model (Quantus) that defines cohorts of salmon by the river section and time in which they were spawned. Salmon in these space-time cohorts are tracked from the time redds (nests) are constructed until the cohort exits the tributary en route to the ocean. In this study, we modeled seasonal patterns in energy value and developed a Pareto-optimal frontier of seasonal flow patterns to maximize in-river salmon survival and hydropower value. Candidate flow regimes were characterized by two pulse flows varying in magnitude, timing, and duration and constrained by a total annual flow near the historical median. Our analysis revealed times when economic and salmon objectives were aligned and times when they differed. Pulse flows that favored higher energy value were timed to meet demand during extreme temperatures. Both salmon and hydropower objectives produced optimal flow regimes with pulse flows in early summer, but only solutions favoring hydropower value included high flows in mid-winter. Solutions favoring higher age-0 salmon survival provided an extended pulse flow in late winter/early spring, which suggests that access to productive floodplain habitat allowed faster growth and earlier out-migration and reduced the need for higher temperature-moderating flows later in spring. Minimum flows were also higher among solutions favoring salmon over energy. The tools used to produce these results can help to design simplified seasonal flow regimes by revealing compromise solutions that satisfy both fish and energy producers and highlighting when potential conflicts are likely.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Anorthite - Thermal equation of state to high pressures

New shock-wave data are presented for anorthite from which a full high-temperature, high-pressure equation of state is derived. Whereas anorthite has relatively low values of thermal expansion and Grueneisen parameter at zero pressure, it is found that these attain relatively high values in the high density state corresponding to the high-pressure phase Hugoniot but decrease upon compression as expected. It is noted that higher order anharmonic contributions decrease more rapidly with pressure and that the thermal expansion therefore saturates to a high temperature value at pressures above about 100 GPa. Reduction of the Hugoniot data permits shock temperatures to be calculated; it also yields a principal adiabat for the high pressure branch of the Hugoniot. The initial bulk modulus of this adiabat is essentially identical to that of anorthite, whereas the initial density is about 3.40 Mg/cu m.

Jeanloz, R.↗

An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2010 Hurricane Season

Estimates are presented for the tropical cyclone activity expected for the 2010 North Atlantic basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the 2010 season will be more active than the 2009 season, reflecting increased frequencies more akin to that of the current more active phase that has been in vogue since 1995. Averages (+/- 1 sd) during the current more active phase are 14.5+/-4.7, 7.8+/-3.2, 3.7+/-1.8, and 2+/- 2, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones (NTC), the number of hurricanes (NH), the number of major hurricanes (NMH), and the number of United States (U.S.) land-falling hurricanes (NUSLFH). Based on the "usual" behavior of the 10-yma parametric first differences, one expects NTC = 19+/-2, NH = 14+/-2, NMH = 7+/-2, and NUSLFH = 4+/-2 for the 2010 hurricane season; however, based on the "best guess" 10-yma values of surface-air temperature at the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) and the Oceanic Nino Index, one expects NTC > or equals 16, NH > or equals 14, NMH > or equals 7, and NUSLFH > or equals 6.

Wilson, Robert M.↗