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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

A Phenomenon-Based Decomposition of Model-Based Estimates of Boreal Winter ENSO Variability

Climate models are now routinely being used to simulate and predict climate variability on time scales ranging from sub-seasonal to seasonal and longer. As such, there are now long histories of such simulations and predictions spanning multiple decades and multiple ensemble members, both of which are crucial for separating climate signal from climate noise. A key focus of such runs has been the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), spurred by recent improvements in our ability to predict such events, though questions remain as to how well climate models do beyond simply always predicting the “canonical” atmospheric response to an ENSO event—something simple statistical models already do reasonably well. This is a critical issue that needs addressing, given the importance of event-to-event differences for predicting regional impacts of ENSO teleconnections, and the need to justify the expense of running sophisticated climate models. Unfortunately, current diagnostic tools are not well suited for quantifying the different sources of variability associated with specific phenomena such as ENSO. More generally, while much effort has focused on addressing model bias, less has been done to address errors in second moment statistics—an issue whose importance is gaining increased attention particularly as we build climate prediction systems capable of taking advantage of forecasts of opportunity—a capability that requires reliable estimates of forecast uncertainty. In this report, we outline a phenomenon-based statistical decomposition of climate variance(in essence a detailed variance budget)that is specifically tailored to address the above questions by separating the variability (both the signal and noise) into that tied to the long-term average impact of a particular phenomenon(the composite mean) and the event-to-event(E2E) variability about the composite mean. In addition, we provide related decompositions of the correlations that allow us to quantify how much of the agreement with observations (the skill) comes from the composite mean as opposed to from the E2Evariability. As an example, we present the results of such a decomposition for ENSO based on simulations with the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), with a focus on the monthly mean impacts over North America during boreal winter(December –March). Here we take advantage of existing GEOS AGCM simulations that were produced as companion simulations to MERRA-2for the period 1980-2016. Comparisons are made throughout with MERRA-2.

ENSO↗

Experimental and theoretical study of combustion jet ignition

A combustion jet ignition system was developed to generate turbulent jets of combustion products containing free radicals and to discharge them as ignition sources into a combustible medium. In order to understand the ignition and the inflammation processes caused by combustion jets, the studies of the fluid mechanical properties of turbulent jets with and without combustion were conducted theoretically and experimentally. Experiments using a specially designed igniter, with a prechamber to build up and control the stagnation pressure upstream of the orifice, were conducted to investigate the formation processes of turbulent jets of combustion products. The penetration speed of combustion jets has been found to be constant initially and then decreases monotonically as turbulent jets of combustion products travel closer to the wall. This initial penetration speed to combustion jets is proportional to the initial stagnation pressure upstream of the orifice for the same stoichiometric mixture. Computer simulations by Chorin's Random Vortex Method implemented with the flame propagation algorithm for the theoretical model of turbulent jets with and without combustion were performed to study the turbulent jet flow field. In the formation processes of the turbulent jets, the large-scale eddy structure of turbulence, the so-called coherent structure, dominates the entrainment and mixing processes. The large-scale eddy structure of turbulent jets in this study is constructed by a series of vortex pairs, which are organized in the form of a staggered array of vortex clouds generating local recirculation flow patterns.

Chen, D. Y.↗

Rapid Prototyping of an Aircraft Model in an Object-Oriented Simulation

A team was created to participate in the Mars Scout Opportunity. Trade studies determined that an aircraft provided the best opportunity to complete the science objectives of the team. A high fidelity six degree of freedom flight simulation was required to provide credible evidence that the aircraft design fulfilled mission objectives and to support the aircraft design process by providing performance evaluations. The team created the simulation using the Langley Standard Real-Time Simulation in C++ (LaSRS++) application framework. A rapid prototyping approach was necessary because the team had only three months to both develop the aircraft simulation model and evaluate aircraft performance as the design and mission parameters matured. The design of LaSRS++ enabled rapid-prototyping in several ways. First, the framework allowed component models to be designed, implemented, unit-tested, and integrated quickly. Next, the framework provides a highly reusable infrastructure that allowed developers to maximize code reuse while concentrating on aircraft and mission specific features. Finally, the framework reduces risk by providing reusable components that allow developers to build a quality product with a compressed testing cycle that relies heavily on unit testing of new components.

Kenney, P. Sean↗

Lunabotics Mining Competition: Inspiration Through Accomplishment

NASA's Lunabotics Mining Competition is designed to promote the development of interest in space activities and STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) fields. The competition uses excavation, a necessary first step towards extracting resources from the regolith and building bases on the moon. The unique physical properties of lunar regolith and the reduced 1/6th gravity, vacuum environment make excavation a difficult technical challenge. Advances in lunar regolith mining have the potential to significantly contribute to our nation's space vision and NASA space exploration operations. The competition is conducted annually by NASA at the Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex. The teams that can use telerobotic or autonomous operation to excavate a lunar regolith geotechnical simulant, herein after referred to as Black Point-1 (or BP-1) and score the most points (calculated as an average of two separate 10-minute timed competition attempts) will eam points towards the Joe Kosmo Award for Excellence and the scores will reflect ranking in the on-site mining category of the competition. The minimum excavation requirement is 10.0 kg during each competition attempt and the robotic excavator, referred to as the "Lunabot", must meet all specifications. This paper will review the achievements of the Lunabotics Mining Competition in 2010 and 2011, and present the new rules for 2012. By providing a framework for robotic design and fabrication, which culminates in a live competition event, university students have been able to produce sophisticated lunabots which are tele-operated. Multi-disciplinary teams are encouraged and the extreme sense of accomplishment provides a unique source of inspiration to the participating students, which has been shown to translate into increased interest in STEM careers. Our industrial sponsors (Caterpillar, Newmont Mining, Harris, Honeybee Robotics) have all stated that there is a strong need for skills in the workforce related to robotics and automated machines. In 2010, 22 United States (US) universities competed, and in May 2011 the competition was opened to international participation, with 46 Universities attending. There were 12 international teams and 34 US teams. This combined total directly inspired an estimated 544 university students. More students and the public were engaged via internet broadcasting and social networking media. This is expected to be of value for actual future space missions, as knowledge is gained from testing many innovative prototypes in simulated lunar regolith. More information is available at www.nasa.gov/lunabotics/.

Mueller, Robert P.↗

Burning Questions in Gravity-Dependent Combustion Science

Building upon a long history of spaceflight and ground based research, NASA's Combustion Science program has accumulated a significant body of accomplishments on the ISS. Historically, NASAs low-gravity combustion research program has sought: to provide a more complete understanding of the fundamental controlling processes in combustion by identifying simpler one-dimensional systems to eliminate the complex interactions between the buoyant flow and the energy feedback to the reaction zone to provide realistic simulation of the fire risk in manned spacecraft and to enable practical simulation of the gravitational environment experienced by reacting systems in future spacecraft. Over the past two decades, low-gravity combustion research has focused primarily on increasing our understanding of fundamental combustion processes (e.g. droplet combustion, soot, flame spread, smoldering, and gas-jet flames). This research program was highly successful and was aided by synergistic programs in Europe and in Japan. Overall improvements were made in our ability to model droplet combustion in spray combustors (e.g. jet engines), predict flame spread, predict soot production, and detect and prevent spacecraft fires. These results provided a unique dataset that supports both an active research discipline and also spacecraft fire safety for current and future spacecraft. These experiments have been conducted using the Combustion Integrated Rack (CIR), the Microgravity Science Glovebox and the Express Rack. In this paper, we provide an overview of the earlier space shuttle experiments, the recent ISS combustion experiments in addition to the studies planned for the future. Experiments in combustion include topics such as droplet combustion, gaseous diffusion flames, solid fuels, premixed flame studies, fire safety, and super critical oxidation processes.

Urban, David↗

UPSS and G2

The Universal Propellant Servicing System (UPSS) is a dedicated mobile launcher propellant delivery method that will minimize danger and complexity in order to allow vehicles to be serviced and ultimately launched from a variety of locations previously not seen fit for space launch. The UPPS/G2 project is the development of a model, simulation, and ultimately a working application that will control and monitor the cryogenic fluid delivery to the rocket for testing purposes. To accomplish this, the project is using the programming language/environment Gensym G2. The environment is an all-inclusive application that allows development, testing, modeling, and finally operation of the unique application through graphical and programmatic methods. We have learned G2 through classes and trial-and-error, and are now in the process of building the application that will soon be able to be tested on apparatuses here at Kennedy Space Center, and eventually on the actual unit. The UPSS will bring near-autonomous control of launches to those that need it, as well it will be a great addition to NASA and KSC's operational viability and the opportunity to bring space launches to parts of the world, and in time constraints, once not thought possible.

cryogenic fluids↗

Increasing Flight Software Reuse with OpenSatKit

In January 2015 the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) released the Core Flight System (cFS) as open source under the NASA Open Source Agreement (NOSA) license. The cFS is based on flight software (FSW) developed for 12 spacecraft spanning nearly two decades of effort and it can provide about a third of the FSW functionality for a low-earth orbiting scientific spacecraft. The cFS is a FSW framework that is portable, configurable, and extendable using a product line deployment model. However, the components are maintained separately so the user must configure, integrate, and deploy them as a cohesive functional system. This can be very challenging especially for organizations such as universities building cubesats that have minimal experience developing FSW. Supporting universities was one of the primary motivators for releasing the cFS under NOSA. This paper describes the OpenSatKit that was developed to address the cFS deployment challenges and to serve as a cFS training platform for new users. It provides a fully functional out-of-the box software system that includes NASA's cFS, Ball Aerospace's command and control system COSMOS, and a NASA dynamic simulator called 42. The kit is freely available since all of the components have been released as open source. The kit runs on a Linux platform, includes 8 cFS applications, several kit-specific applications, and built in demos illustrating how to use key application features. It also includes the software necessary to port the cFS to a Raspberry Pi and instructions for configuring COSMOS to communicate with the target. All of the demos and test scripts can be rerun unchanged with the cFS running on the Raspberry Pi. The cFS uses a 3-tiered layered architecture including a platform abstraction layer, a Core Flight Executive (cFE) middle layer, and an application layer. Similar to smart phones, the cFS application layer is the key architectural feature for users to extend the FSW functionality to meet their mission-specific requirements. The platform abstraction layer and the cFE layers go a step further than smart phones by providing a platform-agnostic Application Programmer Interface (API) that allows applications to run unchanged on different platforms. OpenSatKit can serve two significant architectural roles that will further help the adoption of the cFS and help create a community of users that can share assets. First, the kit is being enhanced to automate the integration of applications with the goal of creating a virtual cFS "App Store".. Second, a platform certification test suite can be developed that would allow users to verify the port of the cFS to a new platform. This paper will describe the current state of these efforts and future plans.

Computer Programming and Software↗

Evaluation Methodologies for Early Conceptual Design Using Virtual Reality and Physical Test Environments

In this study, human factor design engineers wanted to know, by using subject matter experts (SMEs), if there would be any differences in testing low-fidelity conceptual designs in a physical environment compared to a digital/virtual one. Results indicated that when testing a design concept at this early stage, a high correlation between the two environments exists, meaning SMEs found little to no difference when evaluating a design in either a physical or a digital/virtual environment. There are advantages and limitations to both environments. The virtual world gave the experts a better sense of the microgravity space environment and the relationships of space and human presence that are difficult to simulate in a 1-g physical environment. However, the interaction between human and mechanics is better enhanced in the physical world compared to the virtual world. These advantages and limitations of each environment are important; however, cost is also an important consideration when early design concepts are being used. With the cost analysis of materials, hardware, and labor conducting for this study, virtual reality showed a 68% decrease in cost over the physical mock-up build. Thus, taking all aspects of the study into consideration, at this early design life cycle phase, virtual reality shows great promise as an evaluation environment for testing early design concepts that will cost less, give more options, and increase designer’s time to design.

Harry L. Litaker Jr↗

Optical Time Transfer for Bistatic SAR Spacecraft

A spacecraft-to-spacecraft optical time-transfer simulation has been developed as a tool for informing NASA’s Surface Deformation and Change (SDC) mission architecture. The SDC mission will combine radar images from multiple spacecraft to improve understanding of the Earth’s sea-level and landscape changes. Spacecraft must be precisely synchronized in order to create sharp radar images. Simulation of multiple spacecraft time-synchronizing via laser communication can inform technology choices of a mission by providing a picosecond-precision level estimate of clock error. This timing and ranging simulation has been combined with a radar system performance analysis pipeline. The simulated timing errors are used to predict performance of bistatic SAR systems in the presence of oscillator noise and time synchronization in accuracy. This analysis includes both analytic approximation equations from existing literature, and a numerical radar simulation to extract key system performance parameters like phase error and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR)degradation. Precision time-transfer techniques facilitate the accurate synchronization of clocks between any combination of terminals. Most time-transfer technology for comparing two clocks at different terminals use radio frequencies (RF) to measure the time delay between the sending and receiving of signals. Laser technology offers the capability to transmit high data rates with systems that are of smaller size and lower power than comparable RF systems. The clocks on independent spacecraft will have some phase and frequency errors between them that result in clock drift. The two clock models that are included in this bi-directional MATLAB simulation are a cesium-based Chip-Scale Atomic Clock (CSAC) and a rubidium-based Miniature Atomic Clock (MAC). The CSAC has flown as hardware for small satellite missions such as the University of Florida’s CHOMPTT mission. A study of example orbits, including that of NASA NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar Mission (NISAR) mission, and lasing rates demonstrate the impact of flight configuration parameters on the synchronization error between two spacecraft. The MATLAB timing simulation uses a Runge-Kutta 4th-order method to propagate spacecraft orbits and computes the light-travel time estimate between them. The simulation outputs the estimated range and estimated clock error based on a user-defined spacecraft cluster configuration. The radar simulation and analytic approximations are applied to evaluate a potential future NASA bistatic SAR constellation architecture. In the proposed architecture, satellites follow each other in the same orbit at 800 km altitude, with a 210 km baseline. We also baseline the CSAC as an ultra stable oscillator, and use NASA’s NISAR for baseline radar system parameters to compute a clock-system introduced phase error of 5.6 degrees without synchronization by frequent time transfer. We build on this base case with a sensitivity analysis of radar performance over a proposed range of constellation and radar system parameters. With this analysis pipeline, we comment on which radar parameters should or should not be changed to minimize synchronization requirements. This analysis technique could be extended or modified to evaluate the timing requirements of other geometries for other future multistatic SAR missions, or other interferometric satellite missions.

Surface Deformation and Change↗

Testing theories of Gravitation with the Interstellar Probe Radio Experiment

General Relativity (GR) will soon celebrate its 110th birthday, holding up against all experimental enquiry. Nonetheless, unification theories attempting to quantize gravity, such as string theory, are gaining footing. These hypothesize additional scalar, vector, and tensor long-range fields that couple to matter (Will, 2014), introducing violations to GR. Although such violations have never been detected, it is likely that GR will not be the ultimate theory of gravity. What is certain is that gravity tests are alive and well, pushing the validity of GR to new scales and accuracies, or -potentially- suggesting alternative routes for new physics. Building upon the legacy of Voyager and Pioneer missions, which demonstrated the capability to survive in the outer reaches of the solar system, the Interstellar Probe mission concept (McNutt et al., 2022) aims to characterise our heliosphere through state-of-the-art instrumentation, opening new frontiers also for GR testing. In this work, we investigate the possibility of constraining the Nordtvedt parameter η and the mass of the graviton via the Compton wavelength λc, by simulating the processing of 10 years of radiometric data from the Interstellar Probe. Station calibration and clock synchronisation, as well as limiting spacecraft precession manoeuvres are highlighted as key strategies for obtaining high-quality estimates. In the most favourable scenario, η can be constrained to less than 1.5 · 10 -5 , reducing the uncertainty obtained via Lunar Laser Ranging (Hofmann and Müller, 2018), and a lower bound of 1.4 ‧ 10 14 km is set for λc, improving the estimates obtained from planetary ephemerides (Bernus et al., 2020) and gravitational wave detection (Abbott et al., Jun 2021). Extending ranging measurement acquisition to 20 years improves the results tenfold. This experiment interrogates fundamental physics from a unique dynamical setting, investigating possible violations of the Equivalence Principle (EP) underlying GR.

general relativity↗

Experimental and Analytical Evaluation of a Composite Honeycomb Deployable Energy Absorber

In 2006, the NASA Subsonic Rotary Wing Aeronautics Program sponsored the experimental and analytical evaluation of an externally deployable composite honeycomb structure that is designed to attenuate impact energy during helicopter crashes. The concept, which is designated the Deployable Energy Absorber (DEA), utilizes an expandable Kevlar honeycomb structure to dissipate kinetic energy through crushing. The DEA incorporates a unique flexible hinge design that allows the honeycomb to be packaged and stowed flat until needed for deployment. A variety of deployment options such as linear, radial, and/or hybrid methods can be used. Experimental evaluation of the DEA utilized a building block approach that included material characterization testing of its constituent, Kevlar -129 fabric/epoxy, and flexural testing of single hexagonal cells. In addition, the energy attenuation capabilities of the DEA were demonstrated through multi-cell component dynamic crush tests, and vertical drop tests of a composite fuselage section, retrofitted with DEA blocks, onto concrete, water, and soft soil. During each stage of the DEA evaluation process, finite element models of the test articles were developed and simulations were performed using the explicit, nonlinear transient dynamic finite element code, LS-DYNA. This report documents the results of the experimental evaluation that was conducted to assess the energy absorption capabilities of the DEA.

Jackson, Karen E.↗

G2 Autonomous Control for Cryogenic Delivery Systems

The Independent System Health Management-Autonomous Control (ISHM-AC) application development for cryogenic delivery systems is intended to create an expert system that will require minimal operator involvement and ultimately allow for complete autonomy when fueling a space vehicle in the time prior to launch. The G2-Autonomous Control project is the development of a model, simulation, and ultimately a working application that will control and monitor the cryogenic fluid delivery to a rocket for testing purposes. To develop this application, the project is using the programming language/environment Gensym G2. The environment is an all-inclusive application that allows development, testing, modeling, and finally operation of the unique application through graphical and programmatic methods. We have learned G2 through training classes and subsequent application development, and are now in the process of building the application that will soon be used to test on cryogenic loading equipment here at the Kennedy Space Center Cryogenics Test Laboratory (CTL). The G2 ISHM-AC application will bring with it a safer and more efficient propellant loading system for the future launches at Kennedy Space Center and eventually mobile launches from all over the world.

cryogenic fluids↗

Increasing Flight Software Reuse with OpenSatKit

In January 2015 the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) released the Core Flight System (cFS) as open source under the NASA Open Source Agreement (NOSA) license. The cFS is based on flight software (FSW) developed for 12 spacecraft spanning nearly two decades of effort and it can provide about a third of the FSW functionality for a low-earth orbiting scientific spacecraft. The cFS is a FSW framework that is portable, configurable, and extendable using a product line deployment model. However, the components are maintained separately so the user must configure, integrate, and deploy them as a cohesive functional system. This can be very challenging especially for organizations such as universities building cubesats that have minimal experience developing FSW. Supporting universities was one of the primary motivators for releasing the cFS under NOSA. This paper describes the OpenSatKit that was developed to address the cFS deployment challenges and to serve as a cFS training platform for new users. It provides a fully functional out-of-the box software system that includes NASA's cFS, Ball Aerospaceâ€"TM"s command and control system COSMOS, and a NASA dynamic simulator called 42. The kit is freely available since all of the components have been released as open source. The kit runs on a Linux platform, includes 8 cFS applications, several kit-specific applications, and built in demos illustrating how to use key application features. It also includes the software necessary to port the cFS to a Raspberry Pi and instructions for configuring COSMOS to communicate with the target. All of the demos and test scripts can be rerun unchanged with the cFS running on the Raspberry Pi. The cFS uses a 3-tiered layered architecture including a platform abstraction layer, a Core Flight Executive (cFE) middle layer, and an application layer. Similar to smart phones, the cFS application layer is the key architectural feature for userâ€"TM"s to extend the FSW functionality to meet their mission-specific requirements. The platform abstraction layer and the cFE layers go a step further than smart phones by providing a platform-agnostic Application Programmer Interface (API) that allows applications to run unchanged on different platforms. OpenSatKit can serve two significant architectural roles that will further help the adoption of the cFS and help create a community of users that can share assets. First, the kit is being enhanced to automate the integration of applications with the goal of creating a virtual cFS 'App Store'. Second, a platform certification test suite can be developed that would allow users to verify the port of the cFS to a new platform. This paper will describe the current state of these efforts and future plans.

McComas, David↗

Solar Cruiser TRAC Boom Development

The TRAC boom studied is a 30 meter, high-aspect ratio and highly nonlinear structural element planned for the NASA Solar Cruiser spacecraft where it would serve as the solar sail’s skeletal system designed to deploy the packaged reflective sail membrane as well as support operational sail tension loads for flight. Key design drivers for this boom are understanding and characterizing load-deformation behavior and quantifying buckling performance–under flight conditions (zero gravity). Knowing that the full-scale solar sail system cannot be feasibly tested for flight conditions under Earth’s gravity, a building block approach is methodically followed to verify finite element analysis (FEA) predictions and to evolve the finite element model (FEM) accordingly, beginning with the lowest level complexity to match global elastic behavior to the highest level complexity to bound theoretical responses under conservative expected flight conditions. Although the testing campaign for the TRAC boom has not developed yet to produce a full-scale test data point that loads the boom to failure, the fidelity of simulations have evolved with success and warrant further interest and work on this high-aspect ratio, but highly stable, deployable structural boom.

Lee Nguyen↗

Control of a free-flying robot manipulator system

The goal of the research is to develop and test control strategies for a self-contained, free flying space robot. Such a robot would perform operations in space similar to those currently handled by astronauts during extravehicular activity (EVA). The focus of the work is to develop and carry out a program of research with a series of physical Satellite Robot Simulator Vehicles (SRSV's), two-dimensionally freely mobile laboratory models of autonomous free-flying space robots such as might perform extravehicular functions associated with operation of a space station or repair of orbiting satellites. The development of the SRSV and of some of the controller subsystems are discribed. The two-link arm was fitted to the SRSV base, and researchers explored the open-loop characteristics of the arm and thruster actuators. Work began on building the software foundation necessary for use of the on-board computer, as well as hardware and software for a local vision system for target identification and tracking.

Alexander, H.↗

NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation: A Strategic Overview

In this presentation a strategic overview of modeling and related data analysis and assimilation components of the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) are given. Building on the NAME science plan, a strategy is outlined for accelerating progress on the fundamental modeling issues pertaining to NAME science goals. The strategy takes advantage of NAME enhanced observations, and should simultaneously provide model-based guidance to the evolving multi-tiered NAME observing program. The NAME modeling strategy recognizes three distinct, but related, roles that observations play in model development and assessment. These are: (1) to guide model development by providing constraints on model simulations at the process level (e.g. convection, land/atmosphere and ocean/atmosphere interactions); (2) to help assess the veracity of model simulations of the various key NAMS phenomena (e.g. low level jets, land sea breezes, tropical storms), and the linkages to regional and larger-scale climate variability; and (3) to provide initial and boundary conditions, and verification data for model predictions.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

GIS Data Based Automatic High-Fidelity 3D Road Network Modeling

3D road models are widely used in many computer applications such as racing games and driving simulations_ However, almost all high-fidelity 3D road models were generated manually by professional artists at the expense of intensive labor. There are very few existing methods for automatically generating 3D high-fidelity road networks, especially those existing in the real world. This paper presents a novel approach thai can automatically produce 3D high-fidelity road network models from real 2D road GIS data that mainly contain road. centerline in formation. The proposed method first builds parametric representations of the road centerlines through segmentation and fitting . A basic set of civil engineering rules (e.g., cross slope, superelevation, grade) for road design are then selected in order to generate realistic road surfaces in compliance with these rules. While the proposed method applies to any types of roads, this paper mainly addresses automatic generation of complex traffic interchanges and intersections which are the most sophisticated elements in the road networks

Wang, Jie↗

Modeling of Multiscale Solar Dynamics for Understanding Drivers of Space Weather

Understanding the solar dynamics is critical for improving our capabilities to forecast the evolution of space weather conditions. We take advantage of currently available computational capabilities to model solar dynamics from the deep interior to the corona and investigate mechanisms that may drive space weather conditions. The simulations are performed using the 3D radiative MHD code StellarBox. Comparison of synthetic spectroscopic observables obtained from numerical simulations and actual observations allows us to uncover physical processes associated with observed phenomena. To facilitate a transition from modeling short-term physical phenomena to developing a reliable forecast-oriented model, we suggest using the data assimilation approach. It allows us to cross-analyze dynamo model solutions and observations and to consider possible uncertainties and errors. In this presentation, we briefly summarize current multi-scale modeling capabilities and results and discuss ongoing developments to build a reliable physics-based forecast-oriented model of solar activity.

Irina N Kitiashvili↗