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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,135 records · Page 63
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Low Boom Configuration Analysis with FUN3D Adjoint Simulation Framework

Off-body pressure, forces, and moments for the Gulfstream Low Boom Model are computed with a Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes solver coupled with the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence model. This is the first application of viscous output-based adaptation to reduce estimated discretization errors in off-body pressure for a wing body configuration. The output adaptation approach is compared to an a priori grid adaptation technique designed to resolve the signature on the centerline by stretching and aligning the grid to the freestream Mach angle. The output-based approach produced good predictions of centerline and off-centerline measurements. Eddy viscosity predicted by the SA turbulence model increased significantly with grid adaptation. Computed lift as a function of drag compares well with wind tunnel measurements for positive lift, but predicted lift, drag, and pitching moment as a function of angle of attack has significant differences from the measured data. The sensitivity of longitudinal forces and moment to grid refinement is much smaller than the differences between the computed and measured data.

Park, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Psychoacoustic Analysis of Synthesized Jet Noise

An aircraft noise synthesis capability is being developed so the annoyance caused by proposed aircraft can be assessed during the design stage. To make synthesized signals as realistic as possible, high fidelity simulation is required for source (e.g., engine noise, airframe noise), propagation and receiver effects. This psychoacoustic study tests whether the jet noise component of synthesized aircraft engine noise can be made more realistic using a low frequency oscillator (LFO) technique to simulate fluctuations in level observed in recordings. Jet noise predictions are commonly made in the frequency domain based on models of time-averaged empirical data. The synthesis process involves conversion of the frequency domain prediction into an audible pressure time history. However, because the predictions are time-invariant, the synthesized sound lacks fluctuations observed in recordings. Such fluctuations are hypothesized to be perceptually important. To introduce time-varying characteristics into jet noise synthesis, a method has been developed that modulates measured or predicted 1/3-octave band levels with a (<20Hz) LFO. The LFO characteristics are determined through analysis of laboratory jet noise recordings. For the aft emission angle, results indicate that signals synthesized using a generic LFO are perceived as more similar to recordings than those using no LFO, and signals synthesized with an angle-specific LFO are more similar to recordings than those synthesized with a generic LFO.

Okcu, Selen↗
NASA NTRS2014

Peak Oxygen Uptake during and after Long-duration Space Flight

Aerobic capacity (VO2peak) previously has not been measured during or after long-duration spaceflight. PURPOSE: To measure VO2peak and submaximal exercise responses during and after International Space Station (ISS) missions. METHODS: Astronauts (9 M, 5 F: 49 +/- 5 yr, 175 +/- 7 cm, 77.2 +/- 15.1 kg, 40.6 +/- 6.4 mL/kg/min [mean +/-SD]) performed graded peak cycle tests ~90 days before spaceflight, 15 d (FD15) after launch and every ~30 d thereafter during flight, and 1 (R+1), 10 (R+10), and 30 d (R+30) after landing. Oxygen consumption (VO2) and heart rate (HR) were measured from rest to peak exercise, while cardiac output (Q), stroke volume (SV), and arterial-venous oxygen difference (a-vO2diff) were measured only during rest and submaximal exercise. Data were analyzed using mixed-model linear regression. Body mass contributed significantly to statistical models, and thus results are reported as modeled estimates for an average subject. RESULTS: Early inflight (FD15) VO2peak was 17% lower (95% CI = - 22%, -13%) than preflight. VO2peak increased during spaceflight (0.001 L/min/d, P = 0.02) but did not return to preflight levels. On R+1 VO2peak was 15% (95% CI = -19%, -10%) lower than preflight but recovered to within 2% of preflight by R+30 (95% CI = -6%, +3%). Peak HR was not significantly different from preflight at any time. Inflight submaximal VO2 and a-vO2diff were generally lower than preflight, but the Q vs. VO2 slope was unchanged. In contrast, the SV vs. VO2 slope was lower (P < 0.001), primarily due to elevated SV at rest, and the HR vs. VO2 slope was greater (P < 0.001), largely due to elevated HR during more intense exercise. On R+1 although the relationships between VO2 and Q, SV, and HR were not statistically different than preflight, resting and submaximal exercise SV was lower (P < 0.001), resting and submaximal exercise HR was higher (P < 0.002), and a-vO2diff was unchanged. HR and SV returned to preflight levels by R+30. CONCLUSION: In the average astronaut VO2peak was reduced during spaceflight and immediately after landing but factors contributing to lower VO2peak may be different during spaceflight and recovery. Maintaining Q while VO2 is reduced inflight may be suggestive of an elevated blood flow to vascular beds other than exercising muscles, but decreased SV after flight likely reduces Q at peak exertion.

Moore, Alan D., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Multi-Decadal Aerosol Variations from 1980 to 2009: A Perspective from Observations and a Global Model

Aerosol variations and trends over different land and ocean regions during 1980-2009 are analyzed with the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model and observations from multiple satellite sensors and ground-based networks. Excluding time periods with large volcanic influences, the tendency of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface concentration over polluted land regions is consistent with the anthropogenic emission changes.The largest reduction occurs over Europe, and regions in North America and Russia also exhibit reductions. On the other hand, East Asia and South Asia show AOD increases, although relatively large amount of natural aerosols in Asia makes the total changes less directly connected to the pollutant emission trends. Over major dust source regions, model analysis indicates that the dust emissions over the Sahara and Sahel respond mainly to the near-surface wind speed, but over Central Asia they are largely influenced by ground wetness. The decreasing dust trend in the tropical North Atlantic is most closely associated with the decrease of Sahel dust emission and increase of precipitation over the tropical North Atlantic, likely driven by the sea surface temperature increase. Despite significant regional trends, the model-calculated global annual average AOD shows little changes over land and ocean in the past three decades, because opposite trends in different regions cancel each other in the global average. This highlights the need for regional-scale aerosol assessment, as the global average value conceals regional changes, and thus is not sufficient for assessing changes in aerosol loading.

atmopheric aerosols↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CFD Comparisons with Updated NASA Juncture Flow Data

The purpose of the NASA Juncture Flow experiment is to acquire high-quality flowfield details deep in the corner of a wing-body junction specifically for the purpose of CFD validation. A second phase of testing was recently completed, which includes both laser doppler velocimetry and particle image velocimetry measurements. This paper describes the recent experiment and its results. It also makes detailed comparisons between the experimental data and a new version of a widely-used CFD turbulence model for Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes, which was recently developed to improve separated corner flow predictions. The CFD results generally produce very good qualitative agreement with the experiment, although they are less accurate inside of the separation region, as expected.

Experimental Data↗
NASA NTRS2021

A Semi-Empirical Scheme for Bathymetric Mapping in Shallow Water by ICESat-2 and Sentinel-2: A Case Study in the South China Sea

To derive shallow water bathymetry for coastal areas, a common approach is to deploy a scanning airborne bathymetric light detection and ranging (LiDAR) system or a shipborne echosounder for ground surveys. However, recent advancements in satellite remote sensing, including the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) offer new tools for generating satellite derived bathymetry (SDB). The key payload onboard ICESat-2 is the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS), a micro-pulse, photon-counting LiDAR system, simultaneously emitting six separate 532 nm beams at 10 kHz pulse rate. However, despite its high resolution, the major limitation for bathymetry is that ICESat-2 only provides along-track height profiles, leaving observation gaps between the parallel ground tracks. Merging ICESat-2 observations with optical multispectral imagery, as demonstrated herein, provides an effective solution for deriving a full scene of water depth in light of the spectral attenuation behavior. This study aims to combine ICESat-2 and Sentinel-2 optical data to derive shallow water bathymetry (depth <20 m) at six islands and reefs in the South China Sea. ICESat-2 ATL03 point clouds of georeferenced photons are first filtered to determine the seafloor elevation along the ground track. Results indicate a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.26–0.61 m as compared with independent observations from an airborne LiDAR campaign. Next, three semi-empirical functions, namely the Modified Linear/Polynomial/Exponential Ratio Models with its kernel formed by the log ratio between Sentinel-2′s green and blue bands, are used to fit the spectral data with ICESat-2 height profiles. After water depth mapping using the trained model, independent ICESat-2 point clouds are used to validate the Sentinel-2 derived bathymetry. The RMSE values of the three models using the weighted average of multiple images for these six islands are within 0.50–0.90 m in 0–15 m deep. We also demonstrate that a synthesis of satellite laser altimetry and optical remote sensing can produce SDB results that potentially meet the requirement of category C in Zones of Confidence (ZOC) of the Electronic Navigational Chart (ENC) in 0–8 m deep. It is foreseen that ICESat-2 will be a helpful tool for mapping coastal and shallow waters around the world especially where bathymetric data are unavailable.

Coastal Bathymetry↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Fan Noise Predictions of the NASA Source Diagnostic Test using Unsteady Simulations with LAVA Part II - Tonal and Broadband Noise Assessment

The NASA Source Diagnostic Test (SDT) campaign experimental data is used for validation of a sliding mesh technique recently implemented within the Launch, Ascent, and Vehicle Aerodynamics computational framework for time-accurate simulation of rotating fans. The far-field acoustics are analyzed in this work, building upon the aerodynamic validation studies previously published in Part I. Two modeling approaches are explored: the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes (uRANS) with the negative Spalart-Allmaras (SA-neg) turbulence model closure, and a hybrid Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes/large-eddy simulation (RANS/LES) paradigm employing a zonal detached-eddy simulation (ZDES) closure with enhanced shielding protection. Two convective flux scheme approaches with different dissipation properties are also explored with ZDES. The Ffowcs-Williams and Hawkings (FW-H) permeable surface approach is used for propagation of the near-field acoustics to the far-field microphone locations. This work analyzes the low-speed (approach) condition, characterized by a fan rotation speed of 7808 rotations-per-minute (RPM). Three different grid levels ranging between 200 million and 1.1 billion grid points are considered. Results show good prediction of the broadband noise levels at sideline angles ranging between 70° and 110°. The forward arc observers show an under-prediction of the overall sound pressure levels (OASPL) even at the fine grid level. A breakdown of the inlet and exhaust contributions reveals a steep drop-off in the broadband noise levels past a blade-passing frequency (BPF) of 1.5, potentially caused by a lack of resolved small-scale turbulent fluctuations in the interstage region. Past 110° the OASPL are over-predicted by up to 10 dB due to an over-prediction of the low-frequency broadband noise levels in the aft arc. The detuning of BPF2 caused by small deviations in the blade stagger angle around the wheel is captured, and a corresponding decrease in the sound power level for this cut-on tone is observed.

AATT↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Understanding Data Requirements for Developing Automatic Speech Recognition Systems for Air Traffic Control

In recent years, the application of automatic speech recognition has gained popularity across diverse industries, including aviation. Given the many applications focusing on transcribing air traffic control and management communication, this paper explores the training of OpenAI's Whisper model across multiple existing public and private air traffic control voice datasets in an effort to improve robustness. Combining roughly 60+ hours of various air traffic datasets, our goal is to train a unified Whisper model and expect an average word error rate reduction across testing datasets. Furthermore, this work aims to understand the data quantity requirements for achieving state-of-the art results by comprehensively training Whisper on varying dataset sizes. This work has the potential to improve automatic speech recognition performance across the domain, improve understanding of the quantity of data required by an aviation speech recognition system, and lastly provide metrics to compare and improve upon in future research.

ATC↗
DOE OSTI2023

"Reducing Detailed Vehicle Energy Dynamics to Physics-Like Models"

The energy demand of vehicles, particularly in unsteady drive cycles, is affected by complex dynamics internal to the engine and other powertrain components. Yet, in many applications, particularly macroscopic traffic flow modeling and optimization, structurally simple approximations to the complex vehicle dynamics are needed that nevertheless reproduce the correct effective energy behavior. This work presents a systematic model reduction pipeline that starts from complex vehicle models based on the Autonomie software and derives a hierarchy of simplified models that are fast to evaluate, easy to disseminate in open-source frameworks, and compatible with optimization frameworks. The pipeline, based on a virtual chassis dynamometer and subsequent approximation strategies, is reproducible and is applied to six different vehicle classes to produce concrete explicit energy models that represent an average vehicle in each class and leverage the accuracy and validation work of the Autonomie software.

Khoudari, Nour↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulations of Bypass Flow in Prismatic VHTRs

In prismatic Very-High Temperature Reactors (VHTRs), gaps occur between neighboring fuel assemblies referred to as bypass gaps. This work aims to measure the flow distribution between the bypass gaps between neighboring assemblies and the coolant channels within the assemblies. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was done using Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) modeling in STAR-CCM+ to assess the ability of RANS models to accurately capture this phenomena. The RANS results were compared to experimental worked performed by Seoul National University (SNU) and Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) for validation. The CFD results showed good comparison with the experimental data available from SNU and flow split was characterized for multiple configurations, inlet mass flow rates, and bypass gap sizes.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2009

Exploring a Method for Improving Turbulent Separated-Flow Predictions with kappa-omega Models

A particular failing of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes separated turbulent flow computations is addressed within the context of a kappa-omega two-equation turbulence model. The failing is the tendency for turbulence models to under-predict turbulent shear stress in the shear layers of some separation bubbles, yielding late boundary layer reattachment and recovery. Inspired by unpublished work of Volker, Langtry, and Menter, the author undertook an independent investigation in an attempt to improve the ability of the Menter shear stress transport (SST) model to predict flowfield characteristics in and downstream of separation bubbles. The fix is an ad hoc term that is a function of the local ratio of turbulent production to dissipation; it is used to multiply the omega-destruction term, increasing eddy viscosity in separated regions. With this fix, several flowfields are investigated. Results show that, although the "separation fix" can provide dramatic improvement in some cases, it is not consistently good for all flows. Thus, although it may prove helpful in many situations in its current form, this model may benefit from further refinements, including better sensitization to the energetics of turbulence in the separated region.

Rumsey, Christopher L.↗
NASA NTRS1978

A dual assault upon turbulence

All known calculation methods incorporate some sort of turbulence model to reduce the infinite hierarchy of equations, under Reynolds' averaging, to a finite set. All such models suffer from a certain ad hoc nature. A dual structure model was developed wherein the turbulence field is, somewhat arbitrarily, decomposed into large eddies which presumably are dominant contributors to the Reynolds' stress and small eddies which feed on the large eddies as these, in turn feed upon the average flow to gain their energy. These concepts have been developed into a dual approach, one extractive and the other predictive as outlined below.

Payne, F. R.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automatic and rapid calibration of urban building energy models by learning from energy performance database

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is attracting increasing attention in the energy modeling filed. Unlike modeling a single building using detailed building systems information, UBEM generally uses limited high-level building stock data to infer default assumptions about building characteristics and operations. Additionally, this practice inherently brings uncertainty to UBEM. This study introduced a novel method of automatic and rapid calibration of UBEM based on the annual electricity and natural gas energy use data by learning the correlations between crucial model input parameters and the building energy use from the reference building models. A case study was presented to calibrate 72 large office buildings built before 1978 in San Francisco. Seventeen model parameters were selected and Monte Carlo sampling was used to create 1000 samples that reasonably represent the parameter space. Then 1000 simulations were performed for the reference building model to create an energy performance database. The results showed that by learning from the energy performance database, it took less than four simulation runs on average to calibrate a building model. After the calibration, the distributions of each parameter were obtained to replace their single predefined default values. For example, the default lighting power density of 21.39 W/m 2 was calibrated to be 7.50 W/m 2 on average. The case study successfully demonstrated the effectiveness of the novel calibration method for UBEM in the mild climate. The method will be further tested in future for other climate zones and other building types.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

Linear and nonlinear aspects of snow albedo feedbacks in atmospheric models

Namias' hypothesis, that anomalous snowcover on the eastern side of the North American continent can generate an anomalous east coast low pressure system and an anomalous inland high pressure system, is consistent with the time-averaged anomalous response from a nonlinear, primitive equation channel model with an idealized, flat land-sea arrangement. An attempt to understand and describe this anomalous response in the nonlinear model as a linear response to anomalous diabatic heating was largely unsuccessful, primarily because the anomalous eddy fluxes were also important. This unsuccessful attempt to describe the nonlinear model's time averages by linear theory then motivated several comparisons between linear and nonlinear severely truncated quasi-geostrophic models. It was also found in these models that the eddy fluxes were extremely important for forcing or dissipating the stationary eddies.

Roads, J. O.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States

This dataset contains results estimating projections of change of annual capacity factors and levelized cost of energy for several turbine technologies in the 2024 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). Projections of change are based on downscaled earth system model (ESM) data from Sup3rCC. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run land-based wind energy models with a range of possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States to estimate critical system performance metrics such as annual energy production (AEP) and levelized cost of energy. Where multiple earth system models agree, changes in mean AEP from the time period 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Several additional states in the Midwest that currently have considerable wind generation capacity show the possibility of substantial decreases in AEP by mid-century. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset even the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will actually change into the future and to what extent wind energy systems can drive down future costs. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, the uncertainty in future wind resource can be almost as important for future changes in the cost of wind energy as the uncertainty in future system costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗