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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,135 records · Page 63
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Scoping Analysis of Fuel Plate Core Configurations

Nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) engines use a nuclear reactor to heat up hydrogen to high temperatures. Thrust is generated as the hydrogen is ejected at high velocity through a nozzle. NTP has the potential of reducing travel times for deep space missions, such as to Mars. The United States studied NTP early in the space age and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently revisiting the potential of the technology to enable its missions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Star formation rate and stellar mass calibrations based on infrared photometry and their dependence on stellar population age and extinction

The stellar mass (M $\star$ ) and the star formation rate (SFR) are among the most important features that characterize galaxies. Measuring these fundamental properties accurately is critical for understanding the present state of galaxies, their history, and future evolution. Infrared (IR) photometry is widely used to measure the M $\star$ and SFR of galaxies because the near-IR traces the continuum emission of the majority of their stellar populations (SPs), and the mid/far-IR traces the dust emission powered by star-forming activity. This work explores the dependence of the IR emission of galaxies on their extinction, and the age of their SPs. It aims to provide accurate and precise IR-photometry SFR and M $\star$ calibrations that account for SP age and extinction while providing quantification of their scatter. We used the CIGALE spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting code to create model SEDs of galaxies with a wide range of star formation histories, dust content, and interstellar medium properties. We fit the relations between M $\star$ and SFR with IR and optical photometry of the model-galaxy SEDs with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. As an independent confirmation of the MCMC fitting method, we performed a machine-learning random forest (RF) analysis on the same data set. The RF model yields similar results to the MCMC fits, thus validating the latter. This work provides calibrations for the SFR using a combination of the WISE bands 1 and 3, or the JWST NIR-F200W and MIRI-F2100W. It also provides mass-to-light ratio calibrations based on the WISE band-1, the JWST NIR-F200W, and the optical u - r or g - r colors. These calibrations account for the biases attributed to the SP age, while they are given in the form of extinction-dependent and extinction-independent relations. The proposed calibrations show robust estimations while minimizing the scatter and biases throughout a wide range of SFRs and stellar masses. The SFR calibration offers better results, especially in dust-free or passive galaxies where the contributions of old SPs or biases from the lack of dust are significant. Similarly, the M $\star$ calibration yields significantly better results for dusty and high-SFR galaxies where dust emission can otherwise bias the estimations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stable Rate of Slip Along the Karakax Section of the Altyn Tagh Fault from Observation of Interglacial and Postglacial Offset Morphology and Surface Dating

Digital elevation maps obtained using TanDEM-X and Pleiades data combined with newly obtained surface age estimates using cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) and optically simulated luminescence (OSL) methods are used to quantify the slip rate along the western section of the Altyn Tagh Fault in southern Xinjiang. The reconstruction of the conical shape of massive alluvial fans inferred to be from the Eemian (115±7 ka) from CRN dating shows consistent left-lateral offsets of 300±20 m, yielding a slip rate of 2.6±0.3 mm/year. Successive episodes of incision have left cut terraces inset in wide canyons, 10–25 m below the fans' surface. The incision was followed by the deposition of a broad terrace of early Holocene age, which is reincised by modern stream channels. Near the village of Shanxili, a 200 m wide valley is partially dammed by a shutter ridge displaced by the fault. A fill terrace deposited upstream from the ridge has an OSL age of 8.8±0.6 ka. The 23±2 m offset of the riser incising the terrace indicates a minimum postdepositional movement on the fault, yielding a Holocene rate of 2.6±0.5 mm/year, consistent with the 115-ka average slip rate. Furthermore, scarp degradation analysis using mass diffusion reveals a nonlinear relationship between fault displacement and degradation coefficient along the progressively exposed fault scarp, a pattern suggesting either seismic clustering or variable diffusion rate since the Eemian. Together with the Gozha Co-Longmu Co fault to the south, the Karakax section of the Altyn Tagh Fault contributes to the eastward movement of the western corner of Tibet.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

DEPRECATED AI-Batt-OS (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models - Open Source) [SWR 21-17]

DEPRECATED. This repository was archived by the owner on Jun 30, 2026. It is now read-only. Open source implementation of some of the methods utilized by AI-Batt, a battery lifetime modeling and analysis toolkit provided by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). This software demonstrates the use of bi-level optimization and symbolic regression techniques to semi-autonomously identify algebraic models predicting the capacity fade of lithium-ion batteries during calendar aging. Modeling the degradation of batteries is a complex task, due to the difficulty in separating the time-dependent and time-independent factors impacting cell level degradation, across multiple data series with different numbers of measurements and/or data quality. Bi-level optimization enables model parameters to be optimized to either the entire data set or to individual data series, allowing statistical disambiguation of global behaviors (data series independent) and local behaviors (data series dependent). Symbolic regression is used to automatically search for optimal low-dimesional models predicting the variation of locally optimized parameters versus time-independent experimental variables from millions of possible models, resulting in a more accurate and repeatable model identification process than is possible by a manual search. The provided tools also implement cross-validation and bootstrap resampling schemes, empowering statistical model comparison/selection and quantification of model uncertainties. An example script replicates the results from the manuscript "Challenging Practices of Algebraic Battery Life Models through Statistical Validation and Model Identification via Machine-Learning", submitted to ECS. All code is written in MATLAB. Requires the Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox. Contact Dr. Paul Gasper at Paul.Gasper@nlr.gov for any questions.

Gasper, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2008

Weld Residual Stress and Distortion Analysis of the ARES I-X Upper Stage Simulator (USS)

An independent assessment was conducted to determine the critical initial flaw size (CIFS) for the flange-to-skin weld in the Ares I-X Upper Stage Simulator (USS). The Ares system of space launch vehicles is the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration s plan for replacement of the aging space shuttle. The new Ares space launch system is somewhat of a combination of the space shuttle system and the Saturn launch vehicles used prior to the shuttle. Here, a series of weld analyses are performed to determine the residual stresses in a critical region of the USS. Weld residual stresses both increase constraint and mean stress thereby having an important effect on fatigue and fracture life. While the main focus of this paper is a discussion of the weld modeling procedures and results for the USS, a short summary of the CIFS assessment is provided.

Raju, Ivatury↗
DOE OSTI2025

Selenium Migration and Local Structures in Cu‐Doped CdSeTe Solar Cells after Aging

Selenium grading plays a critical role in state-of-the-art Cadmium Telluride photovoltaic cells by enhancing long-wavelength absorption and extending minority carrier lifetimes —key to enabling the current performance record of 23.08%. However, very little is understood about selenium motion. In this study, a comprehensive, multimodal, and multiscale approach is employed to investigate Se migration and local structural changes in copper (Cu)-doped CdSeTe solar cells subjected to accelerated stress. X-ray fluorescence (XRF) microscopy shows unexpected levels of Se diffusion after 500 h under heat (75°C) and light (0.8 suns, 80 mW/cm 2 ), suggesting the coexistence of fast and slow diffusion channels even at low temperatures, with unexpectedly low activation energies (<0.85 eV). X-ray Absorption Near Edge Structure (XANES) analysis indicates a preferential migration of Se atoms to anionic lattice sites and a reduction in Se-Cl co-passivation at Te-terminated dislocation cores. Furthermore, these findings point to a reconfiguration of Se local environments and highlight the potential role of extended structural defects in enabling Se transport at low temperatures. Additionally, XANES results suggest that the presence of metallic Cu across the absorber layer may contribute to back-contact degradation and reduced hole density in both fresh and aged devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts of Solvent Washing on the Electrochemical Remediation of Commercial End-of-Life Cathodes

Changes to surface structure and chemistry occurring throughout the functional lifetime of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) may impact the effectiveness of end-of-life rejuvenation methods. Solvent washing prior to electrochemical relithiation is shown to both increase relithiation efficacy and beneficially alter the interfacial chemistry of heavily degraded industrial cathode material. Four common solvents (acetone, diethyl carbonate, isopropyl alcohol, propylene carbonate) are employed to investigate the role of varying physicochemical solvent properties on the mechanism of capacity recovery. Electrochemical (dQ/dV, EIS), structural (XRD), and chemical (SPME-GC-MS) analysis techniques are employed to comprehensively analyze solvent-cathode interactions. Highly nucleophilic solvents (acetone, DEC) are found to reduce cathode charge-transfer impedance and enable stable impedance growth throughout subsequent cycling. The use of nucleophilic solvents under mechanically aggressive washing conditions may also enable the reintroduction of bulk lattice oxygen, thereby restoring anionic redox capacity. Further, the four solvents are found to selectively remove a subset of surface species from the aged cathode material, including residual electrolyte, additives, and electrolyte-additive reaction products, which are qualitatively analyzed. Surface species removal by each solvent is correlated with the electrochemical performance of the correspondingly washed cathode, highlighting the importance of an optimized washing protocol to effective remediation in the context of direct LIB recycling. For the material under study, the use of a simple acetone washing protocol prior to electrochemical relithiation enables up to 174% capacity recovery relative to unwashed/relithiated black mass.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Demographic, Genetic, and Imaging Variables Associated With Brain Resilience and Cognitive Resilience to Pathological Tau in Patients With Alzheimer Disease

Importance: Better understanding is needed of the degree to which individuals tolerate Alzheimer disease (AD)-like pathological tau with respect to brain structure (brain resilience) and cognition (cognitive resilience). Objective: To examine the demographic (age, sex, and educational level), genetic (APOE-ε4 status), and neuroimaging (white matter hyperintensities and cortical thickness) factors associated with interindividual differences in brain and cognitive resilience to tau positron emission tomography (PET) load and to changes in global cognition over time. Design, setting, an participants: In this cross-sectional, longitudinal study, tau PET was performed from June 1, 2014, to November 30, 2017, and global cognition monitored for a mean [SD] interval of 2.0 [1.8] years at 3 dementia centers in South Korea, Sweden, and the United States. The study included amyloid-β-positive participants with mild cognitive impairment or AD dementia. Data analysis was performed from October 26, 2018, to December 11, 2019. Exposures: Standard dementia screening, cognitive testing, brain magnetic resonance imaging, amyloid-β PET and cerebrospinal fluid analysis, and flortaucipir (tau) labeled with fluor-18 (18F) PET. Main outcomes and measures: Separate linear regression models were performed between whole cortex [18F]flortaucipir uptake and cortical thickness, and standardized residuals were used to obtain a measure of brain resilience. The same procedure was performed for whole cortex [18F]flortaucipir uptake vs Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) as a measure of cognitive resilience. Bivariate and multivariable linear regression models were conducted with age, sex, educational level, APOE-ε4 status, white matter hyperintensity volumes, and cortical thickness as independent variables and brain and cognitive resilience measures as dependent variables. Linear mixed models were performed to examine whether changes in MMSE scores over time differed as a function of a combined brain and cognitive resilience variable. Results: A total of 260 participants (145 [55.8%] female; mean [SD] age, 69.2 [9.5] years; mean [SD] MMSE score, 21.9 [5.5]) were included in the study. In multivariable models, women (standardized β = -0.15, P = .02) and young patients (standardized β = -0.20, P = .006) had greater brain resilience to pathological tau. Higher educational level (standardized β = 0.23, P < .001) and global cortical thickness (standardized β = 0.23, P < .001) were associated with greater cognitive resilience to pathological tau. Linear mixed models indicated a significant interaction of brain resilience × cognitive resilience × time on MMSE (β [SE] = -0.235 [0.111], P = .03), with steepest slopes for individuals with both low brain and cognitive resilience. Conclusions and relevance: Results of this study suggest that women and young patients with AD have relative preservation of brain structure when exposed to neocortical pathological tau. Interindividual differences in resilience to pathological tau may be important to disease progression because participants with both low brain and cognitive resilience had the most rapid cognitive decline over time.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reproductive and leaf litterfall fluxes in forest ecosystem sites globally (1950-2022)

Forest allocation of net primary productivity (NPP) to reproduction is poorly quantified globally, despite its critical role in forest regeneration and a well-supported trade-off with allocation to growth. Although field measurements of total NPP are rare, our work finds that a proxy for reproductive carbon allocation constructed from leaf (L) and reproductive (R) litterfall fluxes, R/(R+L), is strongly correlated with R/NPP, facilitating analysis across a wide range of sites where biometric estimates of NPP are not available (R² = 0.85; Hanbury-Brown et al., 2022, Ward et al., in prep). To investigate relationships between ecosystem-scale reproductive allocation (RA) and climate, soil fertility, and stand age gradients, we conducted a literature search and synthesized 824 observations of annual average leaf and reproductive litterfall fluxes across forest sites globally. The zip file includes 1) a folder Data/ containing the litterfall data ("GlobalForestRA_data.csv") and metadata ("GlobalForestRA_metadata.doc") files. The data file includes geographic coordinates, long-term mean annual temperature and precipitation (1970-2000, extracted from WorldClim2.1), leaf and reproductive litterfall fluxes, sampling interval and protocols, forest characteristics (dominant leaf morphology, information pertaining to forest age and successional stage, and disturbance history) and soil properties (% sand, %silt, %clay, total phosphorus (P), nitrogen (N), cation exchange capacity (CEC) and pH) extracted from SoilGrids250 and from on-site measurements, where available. The metadata file contains information about each variable reported in the data file, including data sources, processing methods, and all references. The Data folder contains two additional files used to create Figure 1; these are described in greater detail in the README.2) R scripts GloalForestRA_analysis.r and GlobalForestRA_SI.r and a folder /Functions used to produce results, figures, and tables in the manuscript Ward et al. (in press)3) a README file describing how the data and R scripts can be used to reproduce statistical results, figures, and tables found in the manuscript. Ward et al. (in press)This repository can also be found at: https://github.com/r-ward/Global_Analysis_ForestRA.Ward, R.E., Zhang-Zheng, H. Aernethy, K., Adu-Bredu, S., Arroyo, L., Bailey, A. et al. (in press). Forest age rivals climate to explain reproductive allocation patterns in forest ecosystems globally. Ecology Letters. Hanbury-Brown, A.R., Ward, R.E. & Kueppers, L.M. (2022). Forest regeneration within Earth system models: current process representations and ways forward. New Phytol., 235, 20–40.Ward et al. (2025), Forest age rivals climate to explain reproductive allocation patterns in forest ecosystems globally, in prep.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

FY21 Status Report on Creep Rupture Testing at ANL to Support the Development of Alloy 709 Code Case

This report provides an update on the status of the creep rupture testing on the first commercial heat of Alloy 709 in support of the Alloy 709 Code Case development. Creep tests were performed in air on the lever-arm load frames in the Mechanical and Environmental Testing Laboratory at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). In FY21, the focus was on the age-hardened ESR-1150°C material. Twenty two tests were initiated, among which ten were completed. This report presents the data from the completed tests. Metallographic characterization of the fractured specimens were performed and the results are included. The creep data enabled the preliminary analysis of the creep behavior of this material. The characterization showed the effect of test temperature and stress on the deformation microstructure.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Chemodynamics of the Stellar Populations in M31 from APOGEE Integrated-light Spectroscopy

We present an analysis of nearly 1000 near-infrared, integrated-light spectra from APOGEE in the inner ~7 kpc of M31. We utilize full-spectrum fitting with A-LIST simple stellar population spectral templates that represent a population of stars with the same age, [M/H], and [α/M]. With this, we determine the mean kinematics, metallicities, α abundances, and ages of the stellar populations of M31's bar, bulge, and inner disk (~4–7 kpc). We find a nonaxisymmetric velocity field in M31 resulting from the presence of a bar. The bulge of M31 is less metal-rich (mean [M/H] = $0.149$$^{+0.067}_{-0.081}$ dex) than the disk, features minima in metallicity on either side of the bar ([M/H] ~ -0.2), and is enhanced in α abundance (mean [α/M] = $0.281$$^{+0.035}_{-0.038}$). The disk of M31 within ~7 kpc is enhanced in both metallicity ([M/H] = $-0.023$$^{+0.050}_{-0.052}$) and α abundance ([α/M] = $0.274$$^{+0.020}_{-0.025}$). Both of these structural components are uniformly old at ≃12 Gyr. We find the mean metallicity increases with distance from the center of M31, with the steepest gradient along the disk major axis (0.043 ± 0.021 dex kpc -1 ). This gradient is the result of changing light contributions from the bulge and disk. The chemodynamics of stellar populations encodes information about a galaxy's chemical enrichment, star formation history, and merger history, allowing us to discuss new constraints on M31's formation. Our results provide a stepping stone between our understanding of the Milky Way and other external galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1981

Volcanism on Mars

In situ chemical analyses of Martian soil by the Viking lander indicate mafic to ultramafic source rocks, consistent with both remote sensing data indicating the presence of pyroxene and olivine and with petrologic modeling which suggests that Martian lavas are iron-rich and ultramafic. Photogeological analysis of the Martian surface reveals two types of volcanic morphology: (1) central volcanoes, developed by continued and prolonged eruption from a point source vent; and (2) volcanic plains, recognized by mare ridges and flow lobes. When these volcanic morphologies are combined with relative age data, a volcanic history may be derived that is consistent with a moonlike thermal history involving a lithosphere of increasing thickness with time which gradually suppresses the volcanism.

Greely, R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Hypertext and hypermedia systems in information retrieval

This paper opens with a brief history of hypertext and hypermedia in the context of information management during the 'information age.' Relevant terms are defined and the approach of the paper is explained. Linear and hypermedia information access methods are contrasted. A discussion of hyperprogramming in the handling of complex scientific and technical information follows. A selection of innovative hypermedia systems is discussed. An analysis of the Clinical Practice Library of Medicine NASA STI Program hypermedia application is presented. The paper concludes with a discussion of the NASA STI Program's future hypermedia project plans.

Kaye, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Nonlinear spatial equilibration of an externally excited instability wave in a free shear layer

A two-dimensional disturbance evolving from a strictly linear, finite-growth-rate instability wave, with nonlinear effects first becoming important in the critical layer is considered. The analysis is carried out for a general weakly nonparallel mean flow using matched asymptotic expansions. The flow in the critical layer is governed by a nonlinear vorticity equation which includes a spatial-evolution term. As in Goldstein and Hultgren (1988), the critical layer ages into a quasi-equilibrium one and the initial exponential growth of the instability wave is converted into a weak algebraic growth during the roll-up process. This leads to a next stage of evolution where the instability-wave growth is simultaneously affected by mean-flow divergence and nonlinear critical-layer effects and is eventually converted to decay. Expansions for the various streamwise regions of the flow are combined into a single composite formula accounting for both shear-layer spreading and nonlinear critical-layer effects and good agreement with the experimental results of Thomas and Chu (1989) and Freymuth (1966) is demonstrated.

Hultgren, Lennart S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Controlled breaks as a fatigue countermeasure on the flight deck

BACKGROUND: A major challenge for flight crews is the need to maintain vigilance during long, highly automated nighttime flights. No system currently exists to assist in managing alertness, and countermeasure options are limited. Surveys reveal many pilots use breaks as an in-flight countermeasure, but there have been no controlled studies of their effectiveness. HYPOTHESIS: We hypothesized that brief, regular breaks could improve alertness and performance during an overnight flight. METHOD: A 6-h, uneventful, nighttime flight in a Boeing 747-400 flight simulator was flown by fourteen two-man crews. The 14 subjects in the treatment group received 5 short breaks spaced hourly during cruise; the 14 subjects in the control group received 1 break in the middle of cruise. Continuous EEG/EOG, subjective sleepiness, and psychomotor vigilance performance data were collected. RESULTS: During the latter part of the night, the treatment group showed significant reductions for 15 min post-break in slow eye movements, theta-band activity, and unintended sleep episodes compared with the control group. The treatment group reported significantly greater subjective alertness for up to 25 min post-break, with strongest effects near the time of the circadian trough. There was no evidence of objective vigilance performance improvement at 15-25 min post-break, with expected performance deterioration occurring due to elevated sleep drive and circadian time. CONCLUSIONS: The physiological and subjective data indicate the breaks reduced nighttime sleepiness for at least 15 min post-break and may have masked sleepiness for up to 25 min, suggesting the potential usefulness of short-duration breaks as an in-flight fatigue countermeasure.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2011

Deployment of an Advanced Electrocardiographic Analysis (A-ECG) to Detect Cardiovascular Risk in Career Firefighters

INTRODUCTION Sudden cardiac death is the leading cause of line of duty death among firefighters, accounting for approximately 45% of fatalities annually. Firefighters perform strenuous muscular work while wearing heavy, encapsulating personal protective equipment in high ambient temperatures, under chaotic and emotionally stressful conditions. These factors can precipitate sudden cardiac events like myocardial infarction, serious dysrhythmias, or cerebrovascular accidents in firefighters with underlying cardiovascular disease. Screening for cardiovascular risk factors is recommended but not always followed in this population. PHASER is a project charged with identifying and prioritizing risk factors in emergency responders. We have deployed an advanced ECG (A-ECG) system developed at NASA for improved sensitivity and specificity in the detection of cardiac risk. METHODS Forty-four professional firefighters were recruited to perform comprehensive baseline assessments including tests of aerobic performance and laboratory tests for fasting lipid profiles and glucose. Heart rate and conventional 12-lead ECG were obtained at rest and during incremental treadmill exercise testing (XT). In addition, a 5-min resting 12-lead A-ECG was obtained in a subset of firefighters (n=18) and transmitted over a secure networked system to a physician collaborator at NASA for advanced-ECG analysis. This A-ECG system has been proven, using myocardial perfusion and other imaging, to accurately identify a number of cardiac pathologies including coronary artery disease (CAD), left ventricular hypertrophy, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, non-ischemic cardiomyopathy, and ischemic cardiomyopathy. RESULTS Subjects mean (SD) age was 43 (8) years, weight 91 (13) kg, and BMI of 28 (3) kg/square meter. Maximum oxygen uptake (VO2max) was 39 (9) ml/kg/min. This compares with the 45th %ile in healthy reference values and a recommended standard of 42 ml/kg/min for firefighters. The metabolic threshold (VO2Theta) above which lactate accumulates was 23 (8) ml/kg/min. The chronotropic index, a measure of cardiovascular strain during XT was 35 (8) /L compared with reference values for men of 40 /L. Total cholesterol, LDL-C and HDL-C were 202 (34),126 (29), and 55 (15) mg/dl, respectively. Fifty-one percent of subjects had .3 cardiovascular risk factors, 2 subjects had resting hypertension (BP.140/90), and 23 had pre-hypertension (.120/80 but <140/90). Seven had exaggerated exercise induced hypertension but only one had ST depression on XT ECG, at least one positive A-ECG score for CAD, and documented CAD based on cardiology referral. While all other subjects, including those with fewer risk factors, higher aerobic fitness, and normal exercise ECGs, were classified as healthy by A-ECG, there was no trend for association between risk factors and any of 20 A-ECG parameters in the grouped data. CONCLUSIONS A-ECG screening correctly identified the individual with CAD although there was no trend for A-ECG parameters to distinguish those with elevated BP or multiple risk factors but normal XT ECG. We have demonstrated that a new technology, advanced-ECG, can be introduced for remote firefighter risk assessment. This simple, time and cost-effective approach to risk identification that can be acquired remotely and transmitted securely can detect individuals potentially at risk for line-of-duty death. Additional research is needed to further document its value.

Dolezal, B. A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Prediction of coronary artery disease in patients undergoing operations for mitral valve degeneration

OBJECTIVES: We sought to develop and validate a model that estimates the risk of obstructive coronary artery disease in patients undergoing operations for mitral valve degeneration and to demonstrate its potential clinical utility. METHODS: A total of 722 patients (67% men; age, 61 +/- 12 years) without a history of myocardial infarction, ischemic electrocardiographic changes, or angina who underwent routine coronary angiography before mitral valve prolapse operations between 1989 and 1996 were analyzed. A bootstrap-validated logistic regression model on the basis of clinical risk factors was developed to identify low-risk (< or =5%) patients. Obstructive coronary atherosclerosis was defined as 50% or more luminal narrowing in one or more major epicardial vessels, as determined by means of coronary angiography. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-nine (19%) patients had obstructive coronary atherosclerosis. Independent predictors of coronary artery disease include age, male sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus,and hyperlipidemia. Two hundred twenty patients were designated as low risk according to the logistic model. Of these patients, only 3 (1.3%) had single-vessel disease, and none had multivessel disease. The model showed good discrimination, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.84. Cost analysis indicated that application of this model could safely eliminate 30% of coronary angiograms, corresponding to cost savings of $430,000 per 1000 patients without missing any case of high-risk coronary artery disease. CONCLUSION: A model with standard clinical predictors can reliably estimate the prevalence of obstructive coronary atherosclerosis in patients undergoing mitral valve prolapse operations. This model can identify low-risk patients in whom routine preoperative angiography may be safely avoided.

Non-NASA Center↗