Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “variable importance”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,117 records · Page 62

Antarctic Firn Compaction Rates from Repeat-Track Airborne Radar Data: I. Methods

While measurements of ice-sheet surface elevation change are increasingly used to assess mass change, the processes that control the elevation fluctuations not related to ice-flow dynamics (e.g. firn compaction and accumulation) remain difficult to measure. Here we use radar data from the Thwaites Glacier (West Antarctica) catchment to measure the rate of thickness change between horizons of constant age over different time intervals: 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2009-11. The average compaction rate to approximately 25m depth is 0.33ma(exp -1), with largest compaction rates near the surface. Our measurements indicate that the accumulation rate controls much of the spatio-temporal variations in the compaction rate while the role of temperature is unclear due to a lack of measurements. Based on a semi-empirical, steady-state densification model, we find that surveying older firn horizons minimizes the potential bias resulting from the variable depth of the constant age horizon. Our results suggest that the spatiotemporal variations in the firn compaction rate are an important consideration when converting surface elevation change to ice mass change. Compaction rates varied by up to 0.12ma(exp -1) over distances less than 6km and were on average greater than 20% larger during the 2010-11 interval than during 2009-10.

polar firn↗

Role of Updraft Velocity in Temporal Variability of Global Cloud Hydrometeor Number

Understanding how dynamical and aerosol inputs affect the temporal variability of hydrometeor formation in climate models will help to explain sources of model diversity in cloud forcing, to provide robust comparisons with data, and, ultimately, to reduce the uncertainty in estimates of the aerosol indirect effect. This variability attribution can be done at various spatial and temporal resolutions with metrics derived from online adjoint sensitivities of droplet and crystal number to relevant inputs. Such metrics are defined and calculated from simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model Version 5.1 (CAM5.1). Input updraft velocity fluctuations can explain as much as 48% of temporal variability in output ice crystal number and 61% in droplet number in GEOS-5 and up to 89% of temporal variability in output ice crystal number in CAM5.1. In both models, this vertical velocity attribution depends strongly on altitude. Despite its importance for hydrometeor formation, simulated vertical velocity distributions are rarely evaluated against observations due to the sparsity of relevant data. Coordinated effort by the atmospheric community to develop more consistent, observationally based updraft treatments will help to close this knowledge gap.

cloud condensation nuclei↗

The Impact of ENSO on Trace Gas Composition in the Upper Troposphere to Lower Stratosphere

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical troposphere and its effects extend well into the stratosphere. Its impact on atmospheric dynamics and chemistry cause important changes to trace gas constituent distributions. A comprehensive suite of satellite observations, reanalyses, and chemistry climate model simulations are illuminating our understanding of processes like ENSO. Analyses of more than a decade of observations from NASAs Aura and Aqua satellites, combined with simulations from the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and other Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI) models, and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis have provided key insights into the response of atmospheric composition to ENSO. While we will primarily focus on ozone and water vapor responses in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere, the effects of ENSO ripple through many important trace gas species throughout the atmosphere. The very large 2015-2016 El Nino event provides an opportunity to closely examine these impacts with unprecedented observational breadth. An improved quantification of natural climate variations, like those from ENSO, is needed to detect and quantify anthropogenic climate changes.

ENSO↗

Cramer-Rao Lower Bound for SoOp-R-Based Root-Zone Soil Moisture Remote Sensing

Signals of opportunity (SoOp) reflectometry (SoOp-R) is a maturing field for geophysical remote sensing as evidenced by the growing number of airborne and spaceborne experiments. As this approach receives more attention, it is worth analyzing SoOp-R’s capabilities to retrieve subsurface soil moisture (SM) by leveraging communication and navigation satellite transmitters. In this research, the CRLB is used to identify the effects of variable SoOp-R parameters on the best achievable estimation error for root-zone soil moisture (RZSM). This study investigates the use of multiple frequency, polarization, and incidence angle measurement configurations on a two-layered dielectric profile. The results also detail the effects of variable SM conditions on the capability of SoOp-R systems to predict subsurface SM. The most prevalent observation is the importance of using at least two frequencies to limit uncertainties from subsurface SM estimates. If at least two frequencies are used, the CRLB of a profile is retrievable within the root-zone depending on the surface SM content as well as the number of independent measurements of the profile. For a depth of 30 cm, it is observed that a CRLB corresponding to 4% RZSM estimation accuracy is achievable with as few as 2 dual-frequency-based SoOp-R measurements. For this depth, increasing number of measurements provided by polarization and incidence angle allow for sensing of increasingly wet SM profile structures. This study, overall, details a methodology by which SoOp-R receiver system can be designed to achieve a desired CRLB using a trade-off study between the available measurements and SM profile.

Signals of Opportunity (SoOp)↗

Phytoplankton pigment patterns and wind forcing off central California

Mesoscale variability in phytoplankton pigment distributions of central California during the spring-summer upwelling season are studied via a 4-yr time series of high-resolution coastal zone color scanner imagery. Empirical orthogonal functions are used to decompose the time series of spatial images into its dominant modes of variability. The coupling between wind forcing of the upper ocean and phytoplankton distribution on mesoscales is investigated. Wind forcing, in particular the curl of the wind stress, was found to play an important role in the distribution of phytoplankton pigment in the California Current. The spring transition varies in timing and intensity from year to year but appears to be a recurrent feature associated with the rapid onset of the upwelling-favorable winds. Although the underlying dynamics may be dominated by processes other than forcing by wind stress curl, it appears that curl may force the variability of the filaments and hence the pigment patterns.

Abbott, Mark R.↗

Interannual and Regional Variability of Southern Ocean Snow on Sea Ice and its Correspondence with Sea Ice Cover and Atmospheric Circulation Patterns

Snow depth on sea ice plays a critical role in the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere because of its thermal insulation property. Furthermore, a heavy snow load on the relatively thin Southern Ocean sea-ice cover submerges the ice floes below sea level, causing snow-to-ice conversion. Snowfall is also an important freshwater source into the weakly stratified ocean. Snow depth on sea-ice information can be used as an indirect measure of solid precipitation. Satellite passive microwave data are used to investigate the interannual and regional variability of the snow cover on sea ice. In this study we make use of 12 years (1992-2003) of Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) radiances to calculate average monthly snow depth on the Antarctic sea-ice cover. The results show a slight increase in snow depth and a partial eastward propagation of maximum snow depths, which may be related to the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave.

Markus, T.↗

Evolution of the Tharsis province of Mars - The importance of heterogeneous lithospheric thickness and volcanic construction

A new model for the origin and evolution of the Tharsis province that emphasizes that the topography of Tharsis may be produced largely by construction, rather than uplift, is proposed. Underlying the model is the premise that the elastic lithosphere of Mars was laterally heterogeneous early in Martian history; such heterogeneity is discernible later in Martian history from the variable tectonic response of the lithosphere to local surface loads. It is contended that the mechanism for the evolution of Tharsis described here led to permanent topographic and gravity highs and a greatly thickened crust in the Tharsis region. An important advantage of the model is that no anomalous dynamical or chemical properties need be sustained in the Martian mantle beneath Tharsis for billions of years. The mantle beneath Tharsis is thus seen as playing a passive rather than an active role in the regional volcanic and tectonic activity, much like the role of the mantle beneath major midocean ridges on earth.

Solomon, S. C.↗

Modeling the controls of forest productivity using canopy variables

A framework is presented by which a generalized, canopy-driven model of biogeochemical cycling in forest ecosystems may be produced. Recent research results demonstrating relationships between canopy characteristics and important ecosystem processes are used to support this approach. Most relationships hold across species groups and suggest that identification of species may not be crucial. Linking this type of model to remote sensing will depend on developing the capability to measure a few key morphological and chemical parameters of whole forest canopies by reflectance characteristics.

Aber, J. D.↗

Global Warming: Discussion for EOS Science Writers Workshop

The existence of global warming this century is no longer an issue of scientific debate. But there are many important questions about the nature and causes of long-term climate change, th roles of nature and human-made climate forcings and unforced (chaotic) climate variability, the practical impacts of climate change, and what, if anything, should be done to reduce global warming, Global warming is not a uniform increase of temperature, but rather involves at complex geographically varying climate change. Understanding of global warming will require improved observations of climate change itself and the forcing factors that can lead to climate change. The NASA Terra mission and other NASA Earth Science missions will provide key measurement of climate change and climate forcings. The strategy to develop an understanding of the causes and predictability of long-term climate change must be based on combination of observations with models and analysis. The upcoming NASA missions will make important contributions to the required observations.

Hansen, James E↗

A Phenomenon-Based Decomposition of Model-Based Estimates of Boreal Winter ENSO Variability

Climate models are now routinely being used to simulate and predict climate variability on time scales ranging from sub-seasonal to seasonal and longer. As such, there are now long histories of such simulations and predictions spanning multiple decades and multiple ensemble members, both of which are crucial for separating climate signal from climate noise. A key focus of such runs has been the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), spurred by recent improvements in our ability to predict such events, though questions remain as to how well climate models do beyond simply always predicting the “canonical” atmospheric response to an ENSO event—something simple statistical models already do reasonably well. This is a critical issue that needs addressing, given the importance of event-to-event differences for predicting regional impacts of ENSO teleconnections, and the need to justify the expense of running sophisticated climate models. Unfortunately, current diagnostic tools are not well suited for quantifying the different sources of variability associated with specific phenomena such as ENSO. More generally, while much effort has focused on addressing model bias, less has been done to address errors in second moment statistics—an issue whose importance is gaining increased attention particularly as we build climate prediction systems capable of taking advantage of forecasts of opportunity—a capability that requires reliable estimates of forecast uncertainty. In this report, we outline a phenomenon-based statistical decomposition of climate variance(in essence a detailed variance budget)that is specifically tailored to address the above questions by separating the variability (both the signal and noise) into that tied to the long-term average impact of a particular phenomenon(the composite mean) and the event-to-event(E2E) variability about the composite mean. In addition, we provide related decompositions of the correlations that allow us to quantify how much of the agreement with observations (the skill) comes from the composite mean as opposed to from the E2Evariability. As an example, we present the results of such a decomposition for ENSO based on simulations with the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), with a focus on the monthly mean impacts over North America during boreal winter(December –March). Here we take advantage of existing GEOS AGCM simulations that were produced as companion simulations to MERRA-2for the period 1980-2016. Comparisons are made throughout with MERRA-2.

ENSO↗

A comparative study of measurements from radiosondes, rocketsondes, and satellites

Direct comparisons of operational products derived from measurements of radiance by satellites to measurements from conventional in situ sensors are important for the evaluation of satellite systems. However, errors in the in situ measurements themselves complicate such comparisons. Atmospheric temporal and spatial variability are also influential. These issues are investigated by means of a special field program composed of flights of dual radiosondes and multiple radiosondes launched near the time of NOAA-6 overpasses. Satellite derived mean layer temperatures, geopotential heights, and winds are compared with the same quantities determined from the in situ sensors. Of particular interest is the impact of in situ errors on these comparisons. It is shown that the radiosonde provides a precise pressure height relationship and therefore precise data for synoptic type use. Radar tracking of the radiosondes reveals, however, an imprecise pressure measurement which causes large differences between the actual altitude of the radiosonde and the altitude at which it is calculated to be. Radiosondes should be radar tracked and pressures calculated if the data are to be used for purposes other than synoptic use. Evaluation of rocketsonde data reveals a temperature precision of 1 to 2 K below about 55 km. Above 55 km, the precision decreases rapidly; rms differences of up to 11 K are obtained.

Nestler, M. S.↗

Evidence for Non-radiative Activity in Stars with T Sub Eff 10000 K

Major advances in the acquisition of evidence for and the understanding of nonradiative heating and other activity in stars cooler than T sub eff = 10,000 K has occurred in the last few years primarily as a result of the IUE and Einstein spececraft. This evidence is critically reviewed and trends that are now becoming apparent are noted. The existence for nonradiatively heated outer atmospheric layers (chromospheres, transition regions, and coronae) in dwarf stars cooler than spectral type A7, in F ang G giants, pre-main sequence stars, and close binary systems in unambiguous, and chromospheres exist in the K and M giants and supergiants. The existence of nonradiative heating in the outer layers of the A stars remains undetermined despite repeated searches at all wavelengths. Some important trends in these data are the decrease in plasma emission measure with age on the main sequence and decreasing rotational velocity. Variability and atmospheric inhomogeneity is commonly seen, and there is considerable evidence that magnetic fields define the geometry and control the energy balance in the outer atmospheric layers.

Linsky, J. L.↗

The Construction of Curves and Surfaces Using Numerical Optimization Techniques

Numerical optimization techniques are playing an increasing role in curve and surface construction. Often difficult problems in curve and surface construction, especially when some aspect of shape control is involved, can be phrased as a constrained optimization problem. Four such classes of problems are explored: parametric curve fitting with non-linear shape constraints; explicit surface fitting with linear shape constraints; surface fitting to scattered data giving rise to ill-posed problems; finally, variable knot problems. In each of these problems there is a nonlinear aspect: either the shape of the curve or surface is important for manufacturing or engineering reasons or the shape affects the convergence of numerical algorithms which use the curve or surface or the placement of knots affects the accuracy of the fits. In all cases the class of functions used is that of parametric spline curves and tensor or direct product spline surfaces. The reason for choosing this class is that splines provide flexible models that are easily evaluated and stored. Furthermore, the B-spline representation of splines leads to convenient expressions for shape control over regions.

Ferguson, D. R.↗

Time-resolved UV spectroscopy of BE Ursae Majoris

Far-ultraviolet spectra have been obtained of the eclipsing, hot subdwarf binary, BE UMa, with phase coverage in the 2.3-day orbital period concentrated near minimum light. No clearly phase-related spectra changes were found, but the UV continuum appeared to be in a highly variable state, with changes of a factor of two occurring on a time scale of hours. The hot star in this system may be one of the few known PG1159-035 variables, which show nonradial pulsations. If so, this is the first such star known in a binary system and thus should be important for determining the physical properties of these stars.

Hutchings, J. B.↗

Definition and empirical structure of the range of stellar chromospheres-coronae across the H-R diagram: Cool stars

Major advances in our understanding of non-radiative heating and other activity in stars cooler than T sub eff = 10,000K has occured in the last few years. This observational evidence is reviewed and the trends that are now becoming apparent are discussed. The evidence for non-radiatively heated outer atmospheric layers (chromospheres, transition regions, and coronae) in dwarf stars cooler than spectral type A7, in F and G giants, pre-main sequence stars, and close bindary systems is unambiguous, as is the evidence for chromospheres in the K and M giants and supergiants. The existence of non-radiative heating in the outer layers of the A stars remains undetermined despite repeated searches at all wavelengths. Two important trends in the data are the decrease in plasma emission measure with age on the main sequence and decreasing rotational velocity. Variability and atmospheric inhomogeneity are commonly seen, and there is considerable evidence that magnetic fields define the geometry and control the energy balance in the outer atmospheric layers. In addition, the microwave observations imply that non-thermal electrons are confined in coronal magnetic flux tubes in at least the cool dwarfs and RS CVn systems. The chromospheres in the K and M giants and supergiants are geometrically extended, as are the coronae in the RS CVn systems and probably also in other stars.

Linsky, J. L.↗

Intraseasonal and interannual oscillations in coupled ocean-atmosphere models

An investigation is presented of coupled ocean-atmosphere models' behavior in an environment where atmospheric wave speeds are substantially reduced from dry atmospheric values by such processes as condensation-moisture convergence. Modes are calculated for zonally periodic, unbounded ocean-atmosphere systems, emphasizing the importance of an inclusion of prognostic atmosphere equations in simple coupled ocean-atmosphere models with a view to simulations of intraseasonal variability and its possible interaction with interannual variability. The dynamics of low and high frequency modes are compared; both classes are sensitive to the degree to which surface wind anomalies are able to affect the evaporation rate.

Hirst, Anthony C.↗

The Global Backscatter Experiment Airborne Pulsed Lidar Measurements

The Global Backscatter Experiment (GLOBE) was intended to provide data on prevailing values of atmospheric backscatter cross section. The primary intent was predicting the performance of space-borne lidar systems. A second and related goal was to understand the source and characteristics of atmospheric aerosol particles. In this paper the authors give a summary of measurement results with emphasis on the magnitude, structure, characteristics and variability of the observed atmospheric aerosol and cloud scattering. The GLOBE pulsed lidar measurements provide an extensive data set on the magnitude and variability of aerosol and cloud backscatter of the atmosphere. The data defines atmospheric aerosol scattering characteristics and should prove to be an important resource for determination of the performance and design of laser remote sensing instruments.

Spinhirne, James D.↗

Characterizing terrestrial ecosystems and productivity from remote sensing data

Predictive relationships were studied between the leaf area index (LAI) of temperate coniferous forests and the canopy of reflective properties as sensed by satellites. Also, the relationship was examined between this sensible variable, LAI, and functional properties such as net primary productivity (NPP) and nitrogen mineralization. Leaf surface area is a locus of many important material and energy exchanges. If LAI can be reasonably estimated from remote sensing measurements, then it could be used with models to predict evapotranspiration, radiation interception, precipitation interception, and other ecosystem processes over large areas. Nineteen mature closed canopy forest stands were measured for leaf area index distributed along a temperature moisture gradient across Oregon. The LAI varies from 15.4 to 0.6. Infrared radiation is strongly scattered by leaves so that it penetrates deeply and its reflectance is proportional to LAI. Red radiation is strongly absorbed by chlorophyll and its reflectance is inversely related to LAI, becoming asymptotic at LAI values of about 3. The ratio of infrared to red radiation compensates for irradiance variations across this transect.

Peterson, David L.↗