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DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian inference of structured latent spaces from neural population activity with the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model

The brain produces diverse functions, from perceiving sounds to producing arm reaches, through the collective activity of populations of many neurons. Determining if and how the features of these exogenous variables (e.g., sound frequency, reach angle) are reflected in population neural activity is important for understanding how the brain operates. Often, high-dimensional neural population activity is confined to low-dimensional latent spaces. However, many current methods fail to extract latent spaces that are clearly structured by exogenous variables. This has contributed to a debate about whether or not brains should be thought of as dynamical systems or representational systems. Here, we developed a new latent process Bayesian regression framework, the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model (OSLMM) which introduces an orthogonality constraint amongst time-varying mixture coefficients, and provide Markov chain Monte Carlo inference procedures. We demonstrate superior performance of OSLMM on latent trajectory recovery in synthetic experiments and show superior computational efficiency and prediction performance on several real-world benchmark data sets. We primarily focus on demonstrating the utility of OSLMM in two neural data sets: μ ECoG recordings from rat auditory cortex during presentation of pure tones and multi-single unit recordings form monkey motor cortex during complex arm reaching. We show that OSLMM achieves superior or comparable predictive accuracy of neural data and decoding of external variables (e.g., reach velocity). Most importantly, in both experimental contexts, we demonstrate that OSLMM latent trajectories directly reflect features of the sounds and reaches, demonstrating that neural dynamics are structured by neural representations. Together, these results demonstrate that OSLMM will be useful for the analysis of diverse, large-scale biological time-series datasets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Urban Air Mobility Noise: Current Practice, Gaps, and Recommendations

AN Air Mobility (UAM) is an opportunity for aviation to improve transportation systems across the world. Representative UAM vehicle attributes include electrical vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles that can accommodate up to 6 passengers (or equivalent cargo), are possibly autonomous, perform missions of up to 100 nautical miles at altitudes up to 3000 ft. above ground level, have flight speeds up to 200 knots, and weigh between 800 and 8000 pounds. Along with the many anticipated benefits, there will be noise issues that need to be addressed. In 2018, NASA formed an Urban Air Mobility Noise Working Group (UNWG) to assemble noise experts from industry, universities and government agencies to identify, discuss, and address UAM noise issues. This oral presentation summarizes technology gaps and goals associated with four areas of interest: Tools & Technologies, Ground & Flight Testing, Human Response & Metrics, and Regulation & Policy, and is drawn from a draft white paper [1] by the same title. Tools & Technologies include noise prediction tools and noise reduction technologies that have been developed for conventional rotorcraft and fixed-wing vehicles that may be applicable or need to be modified for UAM. Prediction tools need to be able to account for variable speed rotors and other temporal variation effects that impact community noise. A reprioritization of noise sources needs to be done since UAM vehicles include multiple rotors/propellers, often in proximity to one another and/or the airframe, with dynamic transition, and new noise sources such as electric motors or hybrid-electric propulsion. Scattering and propagation methods need to be developed that include the vehicle components and surfaces near a receiver such as buildings and vertiports. Validation databases are needed to quantify prediction uncertainties. Prediction tools used to evaluate community noise will need source models appropriate for a wide range of UAM vehicles. Existing noise reduction technologies need to be evaluated and new noise reduction technologies should be developed in anticipation of future noise requirements. Although the prediction and treatment of interior cabin noise is a secondary goal, it is recognized that new tools and methods may be needed due to the uniqueness of the vehicle design and the presence of both acoustic and structure-borne loads. Ground & Flight Testing has been a critical part of validating noise reduction technologies and verifying that an air vehicle is ready for certification. UAM vehicles introduce new challenges for test procedures such as different source noise directivity, unsteady sources due to maneuvers, and a variety of takeoff and approach trajectories. The operating environment will be more complex than current aircraft with the introduction of vertiports in populated areas with “urban canyons” making reflections an important part of noise prediction and annoyance. It is expected that new test procedures and measurement methods will be necessary. Consideration will need to be given for both piloted and autonomous operations. Human Response & Metrics may be very different for UAM noise compared to current experience with airport noise. Current metrics used to certify rotorcraft and fixed-wing aircraft may not be as useful for evaluating UAM noise. Operations at lower altitudes may influence annoyance. Psychoacoustic and community testing will be needed to quantify annoyance and assess appropriate metrics. In addition to conventional noise level metrics, considerations such as audibility and temporal variation of the sound may be required. Differences between indoor or outdoor exposure will have an impact with dependence on urban and residential flight paths. Aircraft noise is currently regulated at a national level and typically involves partnerships with the industry to establish regulations. Regulators realize that current policies and procedures may not be appropriate for some of the emerging air vehicles and new procedures may be needed to address UAM noise. Development of new policies and procedures are needed so that local communities do not hastily attempt to establish their own restrictions that will both limit growth of the market and create an inconsistent and confusing regulatory environment. To expedite this development, it is crucial early measurement data are shared through partnership arrangements to support both noise certification and noise modeling/noise assessment. At the same time, an effective engagement strategy should be developed to address local community noise issues associated with UAM vehicles and flight operations as they arise.

urban air mobility↗

NASA NTRS1992

The Global Ocean Observing System

A Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) should be established now with international coordination (1) to address issues of global change, (2) to implement operational ENSO forecasts, (3) to provide the data required to apply global ocean circulation models, and (4) to extract the greatest value from the one billion dollar investment over the next ten years in ocean remote sensing by the world's space agencies. The objectives of GOOS will focus on climatic and oceanic predictions, on assessing coastal pollution, and in determining the sustainability of living marine resources and ecosystems. GOOS will be a complete system including satellite observations, in situ observations, numerical modeling of ocean processes, and data exchange and management. A series of practical and economic benefits will be derived from the information generated by GOOS. In addition to the marine science community, these benefits will be realized by the energy industries of the world, and by the world's fisheries. The basic oceanic variables that are required to meet the oceanic and predictability objectives of GOOS include wind velocity over the ocean, sea surface temperature and salinity, oceanic profiles of temperature and salinity, surface current, sea level, the extent and thickness of sea ice, the partial pressure of CO2 in surface waters, and the chlorophyll concentration of surface waters. Ocean circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere models can be used to evaluate observing system design, to assimilate diverse data sets from in situ and remotely sensed observations, and ultimately to predict future states of the system. The volume of ocean data will increase enormously over the next decade as new satellite systems are launched and as complementary in situ measuring systems are deployed. These data must be transmitted, quality controlled, exchanged, analyzed, and archived with the best state-of-the-art computational methods.

Kester, Dana↗

DOE OSTI2020

Seasonal mixing from intermittent flow drives concentration-discharge behaviour in a stream affected by coal mine drainage

Abandoned mining operations continue to severely degrade many ecosystems worldwide by releasing acidic water and/or heavy metals into surface and groundwater. Contaminant concentrations in affected streams vary with discharge in patterns that reflect both geochemical reactions and variable mixing of contaminated and non-contaminated waters. However, controls on concentration-discharge (C-Q) patterns remain unclear, particularly for constituents that experience changing solubility across redox and pH gradients. Understanding the C-Q behaviour of contaminants aids in predicting both downstream transport and effects on aquatic life under variable flow. Here, we examined the C-Q behaviours of non-reactive (Na, K, Ca, Mg, Cl - ) and reactive (Fe, Mn, Al, H + , SO 4 2- ) solutes in a stream contaminated with acid mine drainage in northeastern Ohio, USA. Concentration-discharge patterns at the watershed outlet primarily reflected mixing of contaminated baseflow with intermittent inputs of high pH water draining from a passive limestone treatment system into the stream. The treatment system acted as an ephemeral tributary that mitigated contamination in the stream by diluting solutes, raising pH, and driving metal precipitation, but only when flow was present during wet seasons. Consequently, AMD-derived reactive solutes (H + , Fe, Mn, Al) decreased with increasing stream discharge while relatively conservative solutes (e.g., Ca, Mg, K, Na) decreased only slightly or were chemostatic. This study highlights both the unique C-Q patterns of reactive solutes when compared to those of non-reactive solutes and the potential for intermittent streams to control C-Q behaviour in headwater catchments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2002

Leveraging Improvements in Precipitation Measuring from GPM Mission to Achieve Prediction Improvements in Climate, Weather and Hydrometeorology

The main scientific goal of the GPM mission, currently planned for start in the 2007 time frame, is to investigate important scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycles. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood/draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like "core" satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing Operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. GPM is organized internationally, currently involving a partnership between NASA in the US and the National Space Development Agency in Japan. Additionally, the program is actively pursuing agreements with other international partners and domestic scientific agencies and institutions, as well as participation by individual scientists from academia, government, and the private sector to fulfill mission goals and to pave the way for what ultimately is expected to become an internationally-organized operational global precipitation observing system. Notably, the broad societal applications of GPM are reflected in the United Nation s identification of this mission as a foremost candidate for its Peaceful Uses of Space Program. In this presentation, an overview of the GPM mission design will be presented, followed by an explanation of its scientific agenda as an outgrowth of making improvements in rain retrieval accuracy, microphysics dexterity, sampling frequency, and global coverage. All of these improvements offer new means to observe variability in precipitation and water cycle fluxes and to achieve improved predictability of weather, climate, and hydrometeorology. Specifically, the scientific agenda of GPM has been designed to leverage the measurement improvements to improve prognostic model performance, particularly quantitative precipitation forecasting and its linked phenomena at short, intermediate, and extended time scales. The talk will address how GPM measurements will enable better detection of accelerations and decelerations in regional and global water cycle processes and their relationship to climate variability, better impacts of precipitation data assimilation on numerical weather prediction and global climate reanalysis, and better performance from basin scale hydrometeorological models for short and long term flood-drought forecasting and seasonal fresh water resource assessment. Improved hydrometeorological forecasting will be possible by using continuous global precipitation observations to obtain better closure in water budgets and to generate more realistic forcing of the models themselves to achieve more accurate estimates of interception, infiltration, evaporation/transpiration fluxes, storage, and runoff.

Smith, Eric A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analytics-at-scale of Sensor Data for Digital Monitoring in Nuclear Plants (3 rd Annual Report)

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This report primarily focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 ± 0.014, 0.0026 ± 0, and 0.063 ± 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure. This report summarizes the Fiscal Year 2021 research progress encompassing the (1) data cleaning and feature selection necessary for ML applications; (2) development of short-term forecasting models to predict future plant process parameters for both single and multiple time steps ahead; and (3) validation of the feature selection methods and short-term forecasting models given new data from different systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development of Short-Term Forecasting Models Using Plant Asset Data and Feature Selection

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This paper focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 +- 0.014, 0.0026 +- 0, and 0.063 +- 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2003

Anticipated Improvements in Precipitation Physics and Understanding of Water Cycle from GPM Mission

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late-2007 to early-2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycles. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood/draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation s orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. GPM is organized internationally, involving existing, pending, projected, and under-study partnerships which will link NASA and NOAA in the US, NASDA in Japan, ESA in Europe, ISRO in India, CNES in France, and possibly AS1 in Italy, KARI in South Korea, CSA in Canada, and AEB in Brazil. Additionally, the program is actively pursuing agreements with other international collaborators and domestic scientific agencies and institutions, as well as participation by individual scientists from academia, government, and the private sector to fulfill mission goals and to pave the way for what is expected to become an internationally-organized operational global precipitation observing system. Notably, the broad societal applications of GPM are reflected in the United Nation s identification of GPM as a foremost candidate for its Peaceful Uses of Space Program. An overview of the GPM mission design is given, followed by an explanation of its scientific agenda as an outgrowth of making improvements in rain retrieval accuracy, microphysics dexterity, sampling frequency, and global coverage. All of these improvements offer new means to observe variability in precipitation and water cycle fluxes and to achieve improved predictability of weather, climate, and hydrometeorology. Specifically, the scientific agenda of GPM has been designed to leverage the measurement improvements to improve prognostic model performance, particularly quantitative precipitation forecasting and its linked phenomena at short, intermediate, and extended time scales. The talk addresses how GPM measurements will enable better detection of accelerations and decelerations in regional and global water cycle processes and their relationship to climate variability, better impacts of precipitation data assimilation on numerical weather prediction and global climate reanalysis, and better performance from basin scale hydrometeorological models for short and long term flood-drought forecasting and seasonal fresh water resource assessment. These improvements become possible by using more accurate, more microphysically-centric, more frequent, and fully global precipitation observations to achieve better water budget closure and to provide more realistic forcing and assessment of prediction models.

Smith, Eric A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multi-fidelity thermal modeling of laser powder bed additive manufacturing

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) Additive manufacturing (AM) has attracted interest as an agile method of building production metal parts to reduce design-build-test cycle times for systems. However, predicting part performance is difficult due to inherent process variabilities. This makes qualification challenging. Computational process models have attempted to address some of these challenges, including mesoscale, full physics models and reduced fidelity conduction models. The goal of this work is credible multi-fidelity modeling of the LPBF process by investigating methods for estimating the error between models of two different fidelities. Two methods of error estimation are investigated, adjoint-based error estimation and Bayesian calibration. Adjoint-based error estimation is found to effectively bounding the error between the two models, but with very conservative bounds, making predictions highly uncertain. Bayesian parameter calibration applied to conduction model heat source parameters is found to effectively bound the observed error between the models for melt pool morphology quantities of interest. However, the calibrations do not effectively bound the error in heat distribution.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1995

Fatigue Crack Growth and Crack Bridging in SCS-6/Ti-24-11

Interfacial damage induced by relative fiber/matrix sliding was found to occur in the bridged zone of unidirectional SCS-6/Ti-24Al-11Nb intermetallic matrix composite specimens subjected to fatigue crack growth conditions. The degree of interfacial damage was not uniform along the bridged crack wake. Higher damage zones were observed near the machined notch in comparison to the crack tip. The interfacial friction shear strength tau(sub f) measured in the crack wake using pushout testing revealed lower values than the as-received interface. Interfacial wear also reduced the strength of the bridging fibers. The reduction in fiber strength is thought to be a function of the magnitude of relative fiber/matrix displacements ind the degree of interfacial damage. Furthermore, two different fiber bridging models were used to predict the influence of bridging on the fatigue crack driving force. The shear lag model required a variable tau(sub f) in the crack wake (reflecting the degradation of the interface) before its predictions agreed with trends exhibited by the experimental data. The fiber pressure model did an excellent job in predicting both the FCG data and the DeltaCOD in the bridged zone even though it does not require a knowledge of tau(sub f).

Ghosn, Louis J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Swelling and permeability effects during propellant cookoff

Large rocket motors may violently explode when exposed to accidental fires. Even hot metal fragments from a nearby accident may penetrate the propellant and ultimately cause thermal ignition. A mechanistic understanding of heated propellants leading to thermal runaway is a major unsolved problem. Here we show that thermal ignition in propellants can be predicted using a universal cookoff model coupled to a micromechanics pressurization model. Our model predicts the time to thermal ignition in cookoff experiments with variable headspace volumes. Furthermore, we found that experiments with headspace volumes are more prone to deformation which distorts pores and causes increased permeability when the propellant expands into this headspace. Delayed ignition with larger headspace volume correlates with lower headspace pressures during decomposition. We found that our predictions matched experimental measurements best when the initial propellant was impermeable to gas flow rather than being permeable. Similar behavior is expected with other energetic materials with rubbery binders. Our model is validated using data from a separate laboratory. We also present an uncertainty analysis using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) of thermal ignition caused by a steel fragment embedded in the propellant.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analyzing the Effects of the Interference between One- and Two-Body Currents on Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering in ACHILLES

Modeling improvements of neutrino–nucleus scattering are an essential aspect of reducing systematic uncertainties for current and future neutrino oscillation experiments. In particular, retaining quantum mechanical effects such as the interference between one-body (1p1h) and two-body (2p2h) currents in our cross-section models is an essential consideration. This work investigates the impact of this interference term on neutrino–argon scattering using the ACHILLES event generator, which directly implements the interference model developed by Lovato, Rocco, and Steinberg. Using fluxes relevant to SBND, the DUNE near detector, and MiniBooNE, charged- and neutral-current event samples are generated and predicted event rates are plotted against a variety of kinematic variables. For events simulated using the SBND flux, it is found that interference contributes approximately 10 \% to the total charged-current event rate, and serves to enhance the quasi-elastic peak. When considering events generated using the DUNE flux, resonance interactions contribute more to the predicted event rate, as the neutrino flux extends out to higher energies. The relative interference contribution subsequently decreases to roughly 7 \%. Neutral-current simulations show a higher rate of neutron knockout. Finally, a comparison of argon-to-carbon cross-section ratios is performed utilizing fluxes from SBND and MiniBooNE.

Pando, Nathan [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analyzing the Effects of the Interference between One- and Two-Body Currents on Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering in ACHILLES

Pando, Nathan [Fermilab]↗

NASA NTRS1980

Theoretical mean colors for RR Lyrae variables

A hydrodynamically pulsating 0.6 solar mass model of a typical RR Lyrae variable was studied with a radiation transport-hydrodynamic computer program to predict theoretical T sub 3 and colors at many phases and to find the proper methods for getting mean colors and the consequent mean effective temperatures. The variable Eddington radiation approximation method was used with gray and with multifrequency absorption coefficients to represent the radiation flow in the outer optically thin layers. Comparison between observed and computed B-V colors indicate that these low Z population 2 models are reasonably accurate using King 1A composition opacities. The well known Oke, Giver, and Searle relation between B-V and T sub e reproduced. Mean colors were found by four different averaging methods. The method that gives a mean color and the mean T sub e closest to the nonpulsating model was the separate intensity means of B and V.

Davis, C. G.↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Combined Machine Learning and High-Energy X-ray Diffraction Approach to Understanding Liquid and Amorphous Metal Oxides

Determining the structure-property relations of liquid and amorphous metal oxides is challenging, due to their variable short-range order and polyhedral connectivity. To predict chemically realistic structures, we have developed a Machine Learned, Gaussian Approximation Potential (GAP) for HfO 2 , with a focus on enhanced sampling of the training database and accurate density functional theory calculations. By using training datasets for the GAP model at the level of Density Functional Theory-Strongly Constrained and Appropriately Normed (DFT-SCAN) level of theory, our results show that the topology of both the low viscosity liquid and the amorphous form are dominated by edge-shared chains and small corner-shared rings of polyhedra. This topology is shown to be consistent with the structure of other liquid and amorphous transition metal oxides of variable ion size, such as TiO 2 and ZrO 2 . Current limitations of the ML-GAP modeling method for obtaining glass structures and future perspectives are also discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Leading Modes of Asian Summer Monsoon Variability as Pulses of Atmospheric Energy Flow

Monsoon rainfall anomalies are often organized into dynamical modes that are more predictable than rainfall at specific locations. Here a linear response function (LRF) is constructed to extract the neutral modes (NM) of the dynamical atmospheric system and their optimal forcing that govern precipitation variability, providing a dynamical underpinning for the empirically derived, recurrent rainfall patterns. The leading mode (NM1) features a shift in the Atlantic ITCZ, a drying over the Indian Ocean and Indian subcontinent, and a “South-Flood-North Drought (SFND)” pattern over eastern China, a pattern inferable from changes in the atmospheric energy flow forced by the corresponding optimal forcing and further enhanced by the water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Moreover, the slow evolving component of the NM1 in response to CO2 forcing can be skillfully predicted by running the ocean heat uptake through the LRF, implicating a deterministic ocean dynamic source for the NM1-like trend under climate warming.

monsoon mode of variability, EBM, climate change, ↗

NASA NTRS2004

Summary of the key features of seven biomathematical models of human fatigue and performance

BACKGROUND: Biomathematical models that quantify the effects of circadian and sleep/wake processes on the regulation of alertness and performance have been developed in an effort to predict the magnitude and timing of fatigue-related responses in a variety of contexts (e.g., transmeridian travel, sustained operations, shift work). This paper summarizes key features of seven biomathematical models reviewed as part of the Fatigue and Performance Modeling Workshop held in Seattle, WA, on June 13-14, 2002. The Workshop was jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command, Office of Naval Research, Air Force Office of Scientific Research, and U.S. Department of Transportation. METHODS: An invitation was sent to developers of seven biomathematical models that were commonly cited in scientific literature and/or supported by government funding. On acceptance of the invitation to attend the Workshop, developers were asked to complete a survey of the goals, capabilities, inputs, and outputs of their biomathematical models of alertness and performance. Data from the completed surveys were summarized and juxtaposed to provide a framework for comparing features of the seven models. RESULTS: Survey responses revealed that models varied greatly relative to their reported goals and capabilities. While all modelers reported that circadian factors were key components of their capabilities, they differed markedly with regard to the roles of sleep and work times as input factors for prediction: four of the seven models had work time as their sole input variable(s), while the other three models relied on various aspects of sleep timing for model input. Models also differed relative to outputs: five sought to predict results from laboratory experiments, field, and operational data, while two models were developed without regard to predicting laboratory experimental results. All modelers provided published papers describing their models, with three of the models being proprietary. CONCLUSIONS: Although all models appear to have been fundamentally influenced by the two-process model of sleep regulation by Borbely, there is considerable diversity among them in the number and type of input and output variables, and their stated goals and capabilities.

Fatigue/physiopathology↗

NASA NTRS2011

Use of Minute-by-Minute Cardiovascular Measurements During Tilt Tests to Strengthen Inference on the Effect of Long-Duration Space Flight on Orthostatic Hypotension

Typical methodology for evaluating the effects of spaceflight on orthostatic hypotension (OH) has been survival analysis of tolerance times from 80 head-up tilt tests. However when scheduled test durations are short, there may not be enough failures to allow survival analysis to adequately estimate and compare the effects of flight phase (e.g. pre-flight, number of days post-flight), flight duration, and their interaction, as well as interactions with effects of interventions or countermeasures. The problem is exacerbated in the presence of a repeated measures design, in which subjects participate in tilt tests during various flight phases. Here we show how it is possible to dramatically improve the efficiency of statistical inference in this setting by making use of the additional information contained in minute-by-minute observations of cardiovascular parameters thought to be reflective of progression towards presyncope during tilt testing. Methods: We retrospectively examined operational tilt test (OTT; 10 -min 80 head-up tilt) data from 20 International Space Station (ISS) and 66 Shuttle astronauts 10 d before launch (L-10), on landing day (R+0) and during recovery (R+1, R+3, R+6-10) depending on the level of participation. Data from 5 ISS astronauts tested on R+0 or R+1 who used non-standard countermeasures were excluded. In addition to OTT survival time, 8 cardiovascular parameters (CP: heart rate, systolic, diastolic, and mean arterial blood pressure, pulse pressure, stroke volume, cardiac output, and total peripheral resistance) that might be predictive of progression towards presyncope were measured every minute of each OTT. Statistical analysis was predicated on a two ]stage model of causation. In the first stage, flight duration and time from landing affect the astronauts' degree of OH, which is manifested in the time trends and variation of the above CPs during OTTs. In the second stage, the behavior of these parameters directly affects OTT survival time. Actual analysis proceeded in the opposite direction. First we identified those CPs or linear combinations that best predicted OTT survival regardless of what spaceflight conditions led to OTT completion or presyncope. From these, we calculated a summary statistic (one per OTT) that best predicted survival. We then used mixed ]model regression analysis to relate changes in the summary statistic to flight phase and duration. Inference on the effects of phase, duration, and their interaction on OH follows directly from this second analysis. Results: A linear combination (W) of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and stroke volume (SV) was found to be the best predictor of OTT survival using the complete data set of minute-by-minute observations of CPs for each OTT. Furthermore, the log-transformed standard deviation of W (Z = log SW) was found to be a strong predictor of survival in the reduced data set consisting of one observation per OTT. In other words, this measure of variability of W during an OTT was the best indicator of whether or not the subject could complete the 10-min test, with higher variability (i.e. higher values of Z) being associated with greater probability of failure. In the mixed-model regression analysis where Z was now treated as a outcome with flight phase and duration groups (ISS and STS) as predictors, we found that there was a significantly more variability in W (higher values of Z) for both groups at R+0, but with no evidence of an interaction until R+3, when the ISS group still had inflated variability, but not the STS group. Conclusions: Variability of the cardiovascular index W recovers more slowly after long-compared to short-duration spaceflight. Since high variability of W has also been shown to be predictive of OTT failure, a primary manifestation of OH, a logical conclusion is that recovery from OH also is slower after long-duration compared to short-duration spaceflights.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗