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Results for “uncertainty analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,117 records · Page 62
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1996

Six Degree-of-Freedom Entry Dispersion Analysis for the METEOR Recovery Module

The present study performs a six degree-of-freedom entry dispersion analysis for the Multiple Experiment Transporter to Earth Orbit and Return (METEOR) mission. METEOR offered the capability of flying a recoverable science package in a microgravity environment. However, since the Recovery Module has no active control system, an accurate determination of the splashdown position is difficult because no opportunity exists to remove any errors. Hence, uncertainties in the initial conditions prior to deorbit burn initiation, during deorbit burn and exo-atmospheric coast phases, and during atmospheric flight impact the splashdown location. This investigation was undertaken to quantify the impact of the various exo-atmospheric and atmospheric uncertainties. Additionally, a Monte-Carlo analysis was performed to statistically assess the splashdown dispersion footprint caused by the multiple mission uncertainties. The Monte-Carlo analysis showed that a 3-sigma splashdown dispersion footprint with axes of 43.3 nm (long), -33.5 nm (short), and 10.0 nm (crossrange) can be constructed. A 58% probability exists that the Recovery Module will overshoot the nominal splashdown site.

Desai, Prasun N.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Image processing methods for Rayleigh scattering measurements of diesel spray mixing at high repetition rate

This work describes the diagnostic implementation and image processing methods to quantitatively measure diesel spray mixing injected into a high-pressure, high-temperature environment. We used a high-repetition-rate pulse-burst laser developed in-house, a high-speed CMOS camera, and optimized the optical configuration to capture Rayleigh scattering images of the vaporized fuel jets inside a constant volume chamber. The experimental installation was modified to reduce reflections and flare levels to maximize the images’ signal-to-noise ratios by anti-reflection coatings on windows and surfaces, as well as series of optical baffles. Because of the specificities of the high-speed system, several image processing techniques had to be developed and implemented to provide quantitative fuel concentration measurements. We find that these methods involve various correction procedures such as camera linearity, laser intensity fluctuation, dynamic background flare, as well as beam-steering effects. Image inpainting was also applied to correct the Rayleigh scattering signal from large scatterers (e.g. particulates). The experiments demonstrate that applying planar laser Rayleigh scattering at high repetition rate to quantitatively resolve the mixing of fuel and ambient gases in diesel jets is challenging, but possible. The thorough analysis of the experimental uncertainty and comparisons to past data prove that such measurements can be accurate, whilst providing valuable information about the mixing processes of high-pressure diesel jets.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling occupancy-driven building loads for large and diversified building stocks through the use of parametric schedules

Building energy modeling provides a fundamental tool to assess the potential for energy efficiency to contribute to reducing world energy consumption and global emissions. Occupancy-related operations are a key source of uncertainty for building energy analysis, particularly for aggregated building stocks. At a district or city level, it is critical to estimate aggregated power load profiles for sizing power grid infrastructure, power plant capacity allocation, and energy efficiency measures. The stochastic nature of behavior-related operations complicates the creation of models that accurately capture building load profiles for entire building stocks. This research introduces a new methodology called parametric schedules to model occupancy-driven schedules for large and diverse building stocks. In contrast to computationally expensive methodologies proposed in the literature, our work does not use a recursive time-consuming step. Occupancy is estimated by the extrapolation of operation times directly from metered electric consumption data; occupancy-related schedules are stochastically assigned to each building model, guaranteeing diversity of operation times in the stock. Our procedure has been tested on a large, diversified data-set of 25,000 commercial buildings in Los Angeles, California. It proved to be able to adequately represent the stochastic schedules diversity of the stock and to refine the stock calibration process by 1%. This innovative approach represents a useful asset for utility companies, grid operators, urban planners, and balancing authorities, seeking to improve building stock modeling and better estimate the impact of energy conservation measures. – This work is part of a larger stock modeling tool called ComStock, which is under development by NREL.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analytical workflow dependence of experimental observables for uranium chemistries

In this work, we investigated how the sequencing of laboratory analytical methods used for chemical and morphological characterization influences analytical findings for particulate materials relevant to the nuclear fuel cycle, including UO2, U3O8, studtite (UO2O2·4H2O), and β-UO3, in the context of nuclear forensic analysis. Particles of each chemistry obtained from consistent production batches were exposed to Raman spectroscopy and scanning electron microscopy in varying orders to elucidate how the order in which the techniques are applied influences morphological and chemical observations as a function of particle size. The results indicate that particles from all four chemistries exposed to high-resolution electron imaging before Raman spectral analysis demonstrate optical vibrational spectral changes that reduce accurate interpretation of the underlying chemistry via Raman spectral analysis. We hypothesize that these changes are due to the thermal load of the electron beam imparted to the sample being unable to be dissipated by materials with poor thermal conduction properties. Results from this study will aid in determining best practices for forensic analysis procedures to reduce uncertainty in chemical determination of unknown particulate samples.

Manns, Rebecca [University of Nevada, Las Vegas]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of the performance of event reconstruction algorithms in the JSNS 2 experiment using a 252 Cf calibration source

JSNS 2 investigates short-baseline neutrino oscillations using a 24-meter baseline and a 17-tonne Gd-loaded liquid scintillator target. Accurate event-reconstruction algorithms are crucial for analyzing experimental data. The algorithms undergo meticulous validation through calibration with a 252 Cf source. This paper outlines the methodology and evaluates the reconstruction performance, focusing on neutrino interactions up to approximately 50 MeV for sterile neutrino searches. Both 252 Cf and Michel electron events are studied to evaluate reconstruction accuracy. The analysis concludes that the uncertainty of the fiducial volume, with an appropriate correction, is much less than the requirement of JSNS 2 requirement (10%). Furthermore, the energy resolution is measured to be 3.3 ± 0.1% for the Michel electron endpoint and 4.3 ± 0.1% for the n-Gd peak in the central region.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Parameter dependencies of the experimental nitrogen concentration required for detachment on ASDEX Upgrade and JET

While current tokamak experiments are beginning to use real-time feedback control systems to manage the plasma exhaust, future tokamaks still require validation of theoretical models used to predict the threshold impurity concentration required to sufficiently reduce the power and particle fluxes to the divertor. This work exploits new spectroscopic measurements of the divertor nitrogen concentration, c n , in partially detached N 2 -seeded H-mode plasmas on ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) and JET with the ITER-Like Wall (JET-ILW) to test the parameter dependencies of the power flowing to the outer divertor, P div,outer , and the separatrix electron density, n e.sep . A least-squares regression of the AUG measurements demonstrates that the threshold c n required for detachment scales as $c_n∝P^{1.19±0.32}_{div,outer}n^{-2.77±0.36}_{e,sep}$. This scaling of n e,sep is also consistent with the measurements from JET which, at constant P div,outer , show $c_n∝n^{-2.43±0.27}_{e,sep}$. The dependencies of P div,outer and n e.sep is demonstrated over at least a factor of two change in both parameters and indicates a stronger dependence on n e.sep in comparison to the Lengyel model, which could be due to the assumption in this model that the heat flux channel width is independent of density. This first assessment of detachment scaling with impurity seeding highlights the need for further analysis of the systematic uncertainties of the measurement and more consistent scenarios from more tokamaks to investigate the machine size scaling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

JetGP: A derivative enhanced Gaussian process library

Derivative enhanced Gaussian Processes (DEGPs) can significantly improve surrogate model accuracy over standard Gaussian Process (GP) formulations by incorporating derivative information. However, standard implementations scale poorly with dimension, limiting their use in high dimensional engineering problems. JetGP is a Python framework that unifies existing derivative enhanced GP methodologies into a single library and extends them to support arbitrary order derivative information. The library implements four complementary formulations: standard derivative enhanced Gaussian Processes (DEGP), directional DEGP (DDEGP), generalized directional DEGP (GDDEGP), and weighted DEGP (WDEGP). By unifying these approaches in a consistent interface with robust numerical implementations, JetGP enables practitioners to balance predictive accuracy and computational efficiency for high dimensional optimization, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis in engineering design.

Derivative enhanced Gaussian process↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced surrogate model for electron-scale turbulence in tokamak pedestals

We derive an advanced surrogate model for predicting turbulent transport at the edge of tokamaks driven by electron temperature gradient (ETG) modes. Our derivation is based on a recently developed sensitivity-driven sparse grid interpolation approach for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis at scale, which informs the set of parameters that define the surrogate model as a scaling law. Our model reveals that ETG-driven electron heat flux is influenced by the safety factor q, electron beta β e and normalized electron Debye length λ D , in addition to well-established parameters such as the electron temperature and density gradients. To assess the trustworthiness of our model's predictions beyond training, we compute prediction intervals using bootstrapping. The surrogate model's predictive power is tested across a wide range of parameter values, including within-distribution testing parameters (to verify our model) as well as out-of-bounds and out-of-distribution testing (to validate the proposed model). Overall, validation efforts show that our model competes well with, or can even outperform, existing scaling laws in predicting ETG-driven transport.

fusion plasma↗
DOE OSTI2021

Magnetostriction of α-RuCl 3 Flakes in the Zigzag Phase

Motivated by the possibility of enhanced magnetic fluctuations in exfoliated α-RuCl 3 flakes, we study magneto-Raman spectra of exfoliated multilayer α-RuCl 3 in out-of-plane magnetic fields of -6 to 6 T at temperatures of 670 mK to 4 K. While the literature currently suggests that bulk α-RuCl 3 is in an antiferromagnetic zigzag phase with R$\bar3$ symmetry at low temperatures, we do not observe R$\bar3$ symmetry in exfoliated α-RuCl 3 at low temperatures. While we saw no magnetic field-driven transitions, the Raman modes exhibit unexpected stochastic shifts in response to the applied magnetic field that are above the uncertainties inferred from Bayesian analysis. Finally, these stochastic shifts are consistent with the emergence of magnetostrictive interactions in exfoliated α-RuCl 3 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertain Spatial Pattern of Future Land Use and Land Cover Change and Its Impacts on Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Over the Arctic–Boreal Region of North America

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) represents a key process of human-Earth system interaction and has profound impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling. As a key input for ecosystem models, future gridded LULCC data is typically spatially downscaled from regional LULCC projections by integrated assessment models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). The uncertainty associated with the different spatial downscaling methods and its impacts on the subsequent model projections have been historically ignored and rarely examined. This study investigated this problem using two representative spatial downscaling methods and focused on their impacts on the carbon cycle over the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) domain, where extensive LULCC is expected. Specifically, we used the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS) and the Demeter model to generate 0.25° gridded LULCC data (i.e., LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , respectively) with the same input of regional LULCC projections from GCAM, under both the low (i.e., SSP126) and high (i.e., SSP585) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The two sets of downscaled LULCC were used to drive the Community Land Model version 5 and prognostically simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics over the 21st century. The results suggest large spatial-temporal differences between LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , and the spatial distributions of the needleleaf evergreen boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub, and C3 arctic grass are particularly different under both SSP126 and SSP585. Additionally, the spatiotemporal differences are larger under SSP126 than SSP585, due to more intensive LULCC under SSP126 than SSP585 from GCAM projection. The differences in LULCC further lead to large discrepancies in the spatial patterns of projected gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem exchange, which represent more than 79% of the contributions of future LULCC in 2100. Additionally, the difference in carbon flux under SSP126 is generally larger than those under SSP585. This study highlights the importance of considering the uncertainties induced by the spatial downscaling process in future LULCC projections and carbon cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Computational budget optimization for Bayesian parameter estimation in heavy-ion collisions

Abstract Bayesian parameter estimation provides a systematic approach to compare heavy-ion collision models with measurements, leading to constraints on the properties of nuclear matter with proper accounting of experimental and theoretical uncertainties. Aside from statistical and systematic model uncertainties, interpolation uncertainties can also play a role in Bayesian inference, if the model’s predictions can only be calculated at a limited set of model parameters. This uncertainty originates from using an emulator to interpolate the model’s prediction across a continuous space of parameters. In this work, we study the trade-offs between the emulator (interpolation) and statistical uncertainties. We perform the analysis using spatial eccentricities from the T R ENTo model of initial conditions for nuclear collisions. Given a fixed computational budget, we study the optimal compromise between the number of parameter samples and the number of collisions simulated per parameter sample. For the observables and parameters used in the present study, we find that the best constraints are achieved when the number of parameter samples is slightly smaller than the number of collisions simulated per parameter sample.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Davis–Chandrasekhar–Fermi method revisited

ABSTRACT Despite the rich observational results on interstellar magnetic fields in star-forming regions, it is still unclear how dynamically significant the magnetic fields are at varying physical scales, because direct measurement of the field strength is observationally difficult. The Davis–Chandrasekhar–Fermi (DCF) method has been the most commonly used method to estimate the magnetic field strength from polarization data. It is based on the assumption that gas turbulent motion is the driving source of field distortion via linear Alfvén waves. In this work, using MHD simulations of star-forming clouds, we test the validity of the assumption underlying the DCF method by examining its accuracy in the real 3D space. Our results suggest that the DCF relation between turbulent kinetic energy and magnetic energy fluctuation should be treated as a statistical result instead of a local property. We then develop and investigate several modifications to the original DCF method using synthetic observations, and propose new recipes to improve the accuracy of DCF-derived magnetic field strength. We further note that the biggest uncertainty in the DCF analysis may come from the linewidth measurement instead of the polarization observation, especially since the line-of-sight gas velocity can be used to estimate the gas volume density, another critical parameter in the DCF method.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Disorder broadening of even-denominator fractional quantum Hall states in the presence of a short-range alloy potential

We study energy gaps of the $\textit{ν}$ = 7/2 and $\textit{ν}$ = 5/2 fractional quantum Hall states in a series of two-dimensional electron gases containing alloy disorder. In this work we found that gaps at these two filling factors have the same suppression rate with alloy disorder. The dimensionless intrinsic gaps in our alloy samples obtained from the model proposed by Morf and d'Ambrumenil are consistent with numerical results, but are larger than those obtained from experiments on pristine samples published in the literature. The disorder broadening parameter has large uncertainties. However, a modified analysis relying on shared intrinsic gaps yields consistent results for both the $\textit{ν}$ = 5/2 and 7/2 fractional quantum Hall states and establishes a linear relationship between the disorder broadening parameter and alloy concentration. Furthermore, we find that we can separate contributions to the disorder broadening of the long-range and short-range scattering.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Confirmation of the spectral excess in DAMIC at SNOLAB with skipper CCDs

Here, we present results from a 3.25 kg–day target exposure of two silicon charge-coupled devices (CCDs), each with 24 megapixels and skipper readout, deployed in the DAMIC setup at SNOLAB. With a reduction in pixel readout noise of a factor of 10 relative to the previous detector, we investigate the excess population of low-energy events in the CCD bulk previously observed above expected backgrounds. We address the dominant systematic uncertainty of the previous analysis through a depth fiducialization designed to reject surface backgrounds on the CCDs. The measured bulk ionization spectrum confirms the presence of an excess population of low-energy events in the CCD target with characteristic rate of ~7 events per kg-day and electron-equivalent energies of ~80 eV, whose origin remains unknown.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Could SBND-PRISM probe lepton flavor violation?

We investigate the possibility of using the Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND) at Fermilab to constrain lepton flavor violating decays of pions and kaons. We study how to leverage SBND-PRISM, the use of the neutrino beam angular spread to mitigate systematic uncertainties, to enhance this analysis. We show that SBND-PRISM can put stringent limits on the flavor violating branching ratios BR ( π + → μ + ν e ) = 8.9 × 10 − 4 , BR ( K + → μ + ν e ) = 3.2 × 10 − 3 , improving previous constraints by factors 9 and 1.25, respectively. We also estimate the SBND-PRISM sensitivity to lepton number violating decays, BR ( π + → μ + ν ¯ e ) = 2.1 × 10 − 3 and BR ( K + → μ + ν ¯ e ) = 7.4 × 10 − 3 , though not reaching previous Big European Bubble Chamber limits. Last, we identify several ways how the SBND collaboration could improve this analysis. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Combined Computer Vision and Deep Learning Approach for Rapid Drone-Based Optical Characterization of Parabolic Troughs

Optical accuracy is a primary driver of parabolic trough concentrating solar power (CSP) plant performance, but can be damaged by wind loads, gravity, error during installation, and regular plant operation. Collecting and analyzing optical measurements over an entire operating parabolic trough plant is difficult, given the large scale of typical installations. Distant Observer, a software tool developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, uses images of the absorber tube reflected in the collector mirror to measure both surface slope in the parabolic mirror and offset of the absorber tube from the ideal focal point. This technology has been adapted for fast data collection using low-cost commercial drones, but until recently still required substantial human labor to process large amounts of data. A new method leveraging advanced deep learning and computer vision tools can drastically reduce the time required to process images. This new method addresses the primary analysis bottleneck, identifying featureless, reflective mirror corner points to a high degree of accuracy. Recent work has shown promising results using computer vision methods. The combined deep learning and computer vision approach presented here proved highly effective and has the potential to further automate data collection and analysis, making the tool more robust. The method presented in this paper automatically identified 74.3% of mirror corners within 2 pixels of their manually marked counterparts and 91.9% within 3 pixels. This level of accuracy is sufficient for practical Distant Observer analysis within a target uncertainty. A commercial drone collected video of over 100 parabolic trough modules at an operating CSP plant to demonstrate the deep learning and computer vision method's usefulness in processing large amounts of data. These troughs were successfully analyzed using Distant Observer, paired with the new deep learning and computer vision algorithm, and can provide plant operators and trough designers with valuable insight about plant performance, operating strategies, and plant-wide optical error trends.

computer vision↗
DOE OSTI2020

BioSTEAMDevelopmentGroup/biosteam

BioSTEAM is a fast and flexible package for the design, simulation, and techno-economic analysis of biorefineries under uncertainty. BioSTEAM’s framework is built to streamline and automate early-stage technology evaluations and to enable rigorous sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Complete biorefinery configurations are available at the Bioindustrial-Park GitHub repository, BioSTEAM’s premier repository for biorefinery models and results. The long-term growth and maintenance of BioSTEAM is supported through both community-led development and the research institutions invested in BioSTEAM. Through the open-source and community-lead platform, BioSTEAM aims to foster communication and transparency within the biorefinery research community for an integrated effort to expedite the evaluation of candidate biofuels and bioproducts. Additionally, an agile life cycle assessment (LCA) platform has been designed to interface with BioSTEAM, BioSTEAM-LCA. This open-source, installable package allows users to perform streamlined LCAs of biorefineries. The focus of BioSTEAM-LCA is to streamline and automate early-stage environmental impact analyses of processes and technologies, and to enable rigorous sensitivity and uncertainty analyses linking process design, performance, economics, and environmental impacts.

Cortes-Peña, Yoel↗