Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “uncertainty Quantification”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,117 records · Page 62

Calculation of the First Moment of Energy Using D-T Reactivity Formalisms Under the Maxwell-Boltzmann Distribution (Pt. 1)

Nuclear fusion science is an example of a scientific field with a rich history of expert involvement and scientific publications, which together, form an expert-knowledge base. One example of this history is the utilization of published reaction rates from a variety of authors. Investigators for Deuterium-Tritium (D-T) ion fusion can choose from using frequently cited methods: the Bosch and Hale reactivity, thermonuclear reaction rates from Caughlan and Fowler, and the reactivity evaluation from Miley, Towner & Ivich which forms the basis of the Naval Research Lab (NRL) formulary. There are other choices available. Each of the reactivity formulations considered here, are based upon the Maxwell- Boltzmann velocity distribution for D-T fusion ion reactants. Numerical methods for computer codes simulating hot, energetic plasmas, include tabulations of the reactivity, and the first moment of energy. The purpose of this study is to answer the question: what is the first moment of energy, and how has it been formulated? This report is part of a series of reports by the authors on D-T fusion-reaction formalism. The present focus is on defining the mathematical relationship of the first moment of D-T fusion ion kinetic energy, $\langle$E$\rangle$, with the fusion crosssection, fusion reactivity and its derivative with respect to ion-temperature. Three variants of the first moment $\langle$E$\rangle$ are analytically developed and explored: 1) constant cross-section, 2) a normalized first moment, and 3) a particular function of the first moment. Much of the mathematical development is relegated to the Appendices, for a concise presentation of topics and results. A research component of this discussion is our comparison of some of the reactivity and its derivative results between evaluations (1) versus (2) and (3), which the authors have not found in any other publication to date. This investigation is useful for validation, verification (V&V) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) as it compares the work of several authors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

ASCR@40

One page flyers on: A Revolution in Modeling and Simulation; Applying Equations to Complex Problems; Uncertainty Quantification; Moving Big Data; Grid Computing for High-Speed Collaboration; Making Sense of Big Data; Overcoming Scaling Challenges; Building Better Computers; World-Leading Computing Facilities; Supporting Science Through Open-Source Software; and Building the Computational Workforce. Content provided by Department of Energy multiprogram laboratory researchers. Prepared by the Krell Institute for the ASCAC Subcommittee on the 40-year History of ASCR.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

What Questions Would a Systems Engineer Ask to Assess Systems Engineering Models as Credible

Digital Systems Engineering strategies typically call for digital Systems Engineering models to be retained in repositories and certified as an authoritative source of truth (enabling model reuse, qualification, and collaboration). In order for digital Systems Engineering models to be certified as authoritative (credible), they need to be assessed - verified and validated - and with the amount of uncertainty in the model quantified (consider reusing someone else's model without knowing the author). Due to this increasing model complexity, the authors assert that traditional human-based methods for validating, verifying, and uncertainty quantification - such as human-based peer-review sessions - cannot sufficiently establish that a digital Systems Engineering model of a complex system is credible. Digital Systems Engineering models of complex systems can contain millions of nodes and edges. The authors assert that this level of detail is beyond the ability of any group of humans - even working for weeks at a time - to discern and catch every minor model infraction. In contrast, computers are highly effective at discerning infractions with massive amounts of information. The authors suggest that a better approach might be to focus the humans at what model patterns should be assessed and enable the computer to assess the massive details in accordance with those patterns - by running through perhaps 100,000 test loops. In anticipation of future projects to implement and automate the assessment of models at Sandia National Laboratories, a study was initiated to elicit input from a group of 25 Systems Engineering experts. The authors positioning query began with - 'What questions would a Systems Engineer ask to assess Systems Engineering models for credibility?" This report documents the results of that survey.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SAM Plug-in Development (Phase I Final Report)

The DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) has created an extensive set of advanced modeling and simulation tools for nuclear engineering analysis. The advanced capabilities of these newer analysis codes require more in-depth training, skills, and knowledge in order to effectively utilize them for the design, analysis, and licensing of advanced nuclear systems and experiments. A high learning curve for inexperienced users may deter organizations from incorporating these tools into their internal processes. This project involved development of a plug-in to the Symbolic Nuclear Analysis Package (SNAP) for the System Analysis Module (SAM) tool. SAM is an advanced system analysis tool for reactor transient analyses being developed at Argonne National Laboratory under the U.S. DOE Office of Nuclear Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. SAM utilizes an object-oriented application framework (MOOSE), and its underlying meshing and finite-element library (libMesh) and linear and non-linear solvers (PETSc), to leverage modern advanced software environments and numerical methods. SNAP provides a highly flexible framework for creating, modifying and documenting input for engineering analysis codes such as SAM as well as extensive functionality for submitting, monitoring, and interacting with the codes through an intuitive graphical user interface (GUI). The common user interface provided by SNAP minimizes the learning curve for engineers starting with a new analysis code and provides an intuitive framework for transitioning between different analysis codes. SNAP provides a powerful but intuitive interface to facilitate access to advanced modeling and simulation tools for inexperienced users. Unlike many “form based” GUI’s, SNAP maps each engineering code’s component input to an internal database which manages all component input parameters along with component interconnections. This level of abstraction permits SNAP to support several advanced capabilities such as renodalization, model validation and consistency checks, embedded documentation, model notebook generation, data ownership and reviewer tracking, and variable assignment for inputs to name a few. SNAP includes a built-in Python interpreter and is interfaced to several commercial and open source packages including CPython, MATLAB/OCTAVE, Microsoft Office, Open Office, and SANDIA’s DAKOTA package which provides Uncertainty Quantification analysis through the SNAP plug-ins. Phase I of this project involved development a fully functional basic SAM plug-in to SNAP. This plug-in provides the ability to import existing models, graphically construct, edit and submit models using SNAP’s extensive functionality.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Advances in Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in GDSA Framework.

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Fuel Cycle Technology (FCT) is conducting research and development (R&D) on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). Two high priorities for SFWST disposal R&D are design concept development and disposal system modeling. These priorities are directly addressed in the SFWST ''Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment'' (GDSA) control account, which is charged with developing a geologic repository system modeling and analysis capability, and the associated software, ''GDSA Framework'', for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. ''GDSA Framework'' is supported by SFWST Campaign and its predecessor the Used Fuel Disposition (UFD) campaign. This report fulfills the GDSA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods work package (SF-20SN01030403) level 3 milestone — ''Advances in Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in GDSA Framework'' (M3SF-20SN010304032). It presents high level objectives and strategy for development of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis tools, demonstrates uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) tools in GDSA Framework in FY20, and describes additional UQ/SA tools whose future implementation would enhance the UQ/SA capability of ''GDSA Framework''. This work was closely coordinated with the other Sandia National Laboratory GDSA work packages: the GDSA Framework Development work package (SF- 2051\101030404), the GDSA Repository Systems Analysis work package (SF-2051\101030405), and the GDSA PFLOTRAN Development work package (SF-20SN01030406). This report builds on developments reported in previous ''GDSA Framework'' milestones, particularly M2SF- 19SNO1030403.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Risk Informed, Performance-Based, Technology-Inclusive Regulatory Infrastructure: Technology-Inclusive Determination of Mechanistic Source Terms for Offsite Dose-Related Assessments for Advanced Nuclear Reactor Facilities

This report summarizes a risk informed, performance-based and technology-inclusive approach to determine source terms for dose related assessments at advanced nuclear facilities. This approach uses a graded process which allows both the non-mechanistic source terms calculation methods, which adopt conservative approaches and assumptions based on known physical and chemical principles, and more importantly the mechanistic source term calculation methods, which consider design-specific scenarios and use best estimate models with uncertainty quantification for a range of licensing basis events (LBEs), to be used for the design and licensing of advanced nuclear technologies. The source terms developed with this graded approach, and radionuclide inventories elsewhere in the facility that are determined during source term analysis, can be used to address licensing issues to support the application processes of 10 CFR Part 50 for a construction permit and operating license or 10 CFR Part 52 for a Combined Operating License (COL), Standard Design Certification, Early Site Permit, Standard Design Approval or Manufacturing License. They can also be used for other purposes including equipment environmental qualification, control room habitability analyses, and assessments of severe accident risks in environmental impact statements. There are many advanced reactor concepts being developed including high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HGTR), sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), lead-cooled fast reactor (LFR), molten salt reactor (MSR), micro-reactor, etc. The graded approach presented in this report for source terms determination is, to the extent possible, generic to any of these reactor designs and to future reactor designs. This report provides information on the review of the regulatory foundation for use of conservative bounding source terms as well as event-specific mechanistic source terms for advanced nuclear reactor designs.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

TRUST-EABM Sensors in Environments (SE) Report: Release FY20

The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainties in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) project is to support the efficient and responsive development of experimental, modeling, and simulation capabilities for future systems by developing representative testbeds that can be exercised more easily and efficiently than a WR like assembly for the purposes uncertainty quantification [1][2][3]. The testbeds are intended to be experimentally exercised in current and future relevant engineering environments with complementary modeling and simulation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Particle-In-Cell Modeling Parameters in Settling Bed, Bubbling Fluidized Bed and Circulating Fluidized Bed

The objective of the work presented is to perform a preliminary sensitivity analysis of particle-in-cell (PIC) model parameters when applied to settling bed, bubbling fluidized bed, and circulating fluidized bed simulations. These examples correspond to widely different flow conditions commonly seen in chemical engineering applications. Simulations were performed using the PIC method in the open-source software Multiphase Flow with Interphase eXchanges (MFiX) developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). As part of the non-intrusive uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis, simulation campaigns were generated using Nodeworks. Sampling locations or settings for PIC model parameters were determined using the Latin Hypercube method. Response surfaces were created using radial basis functions (RBF), and Sobol’ indices were estimated to quantify the influence of model parameters on the quantities of interest (QoI). This study marks a first step towards systematically determining optimal ranges for model parameters used in MFiX-PIC. Based on limited experience, it is expected that these values would depend strongly on flow conditions. Given the complexity of the multiphase flow systems under analysis, a non-intrusive UQ based approach is used to identify the most influential parameters in each case. This prior knowledge will help in proposing an effective design of experiments (DoE) and determine optimal parameters through techniques such as deterministic or Bayesian calibration, which will be pursued in the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dakota-NAERM Integration

This report presents the results of a collaborative effort under the Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) thrust area of the North American Energy Resilience Model (NAERM) program. The goal of the effort described in this report was to integrate the Dakota software with the NAERM software framework to demonstrate sensitivity analysis of a co-simulation for NAERM.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Uncertainty Analysis Framework for the Hospital Resource Supply Model for Covid-19

In March and April of 2020 there was widespread concern about availability of medical resources required to treat Covid-19 patients who become seriously ill. A simulation model of supply management was developed to aid understanding of how to best manage available supplies and channel new production. Forecasted demands for critical therapeutic resources have tremendous uncertainty, largely due to uncertainties about the number and timing of patient arrivals. It is therefore essential to evaluate any process for managing supplies in view of this uncertainty. To support such evaluations, we developed a modeling framework that would allow an integrated assessment in the context of uncertainty quantification. At the time of writing there has been no need to execute this framework because adaptations of the medical system have been able to respond effectively to the outbreak. This report documents the framework and its implemented components should need later arise for its application.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

SAM Co-Development to Support Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor Design and Licensing (CRADA 2018-18177 Final Report)

This project aims to raise the SAM code's technical and commercial maturity level to enable the Kairos Power ("Kairos") to use SAM to support its KP-FHR design analysis and licensing application. Argonne National Laboratory ("Argonne") has actively developed and maintained SAM, a modern system-level analysis tool for advanced nonlight water reactors safety analysis. Kairos is currently actively pursuing development of an FHR design and associated technology, and consequently requires a pedigreed safety analysis tool. The purpose of this project is to increase the maturity of the SAM code for the modeling and simulation of the KP-FHR design, thus enabling its use in safety analyses that support licensing application. Argonne will primarily be responsible for software design, development, and testing; while Kairos will be responsible for software requirements, assessment of software capabilities, needs, gaps, and priorities, and development of proprietary models. The research and development activities for the joint SAM development project include: a series of identification and prioritization studies on design characteristics, event sequences, relevant phenomena, and software capabilities; SAM capability enhancements for specific KP-FHR systems and components; performing code verification and validations; integrating uncertainty quantification (UQ), model calibration, and sensitivity analysis (SA) techniques in safety analyses; and raising the software quality rigor level for commercial-grade applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Deterministic Calibration of MFiX-PIC, Part 1: Settling Bed

The Particle-in-cell (PIC) numerical approach for modeling granular solids in fluid flow has gained significant interest in recent years. Valued for its often shorter time-to-solution, the PIC formulation relies on modeling statistical groupings of particles called parcels in cooperation with a solids stress model to affect local solids velocity. This is in contrast to the discrete element model (DEM) where every particle in a system is modelled individually and directly coupled to local solids velocity through Newtonian mechanics. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) develops and maintains Multiphase Flow with Interphase eXchanges (MFiX), a collection of open-source computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solvers. Included in the MFiX suite are traditional two-fluid model (TFM) and DEM solvers, and a recently added PIC solver (NETL, 2021). In general, PIC methodologies offer an accuracy trade-off in lieu of computational speed; and therefore, it is important to assess the credibility of MFiX-PIC simulations. For this purpose, a systematic verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) effort was initiated at NETL to assess the new PIC solver

42 ENGINEERING↗

Material Models and Credibility for System Level Abnormal Mechanical ModSim Applications

The purpose of this document is to provide evidence for assessing the adequacy of parameterized material models for a collection of materials used in a finite element analyses setting. “Adequacy” is relative to the intended use of the material in particular analyses. The intended application of the material models covered within this document is for system level abnormal mechanical solid mechanics analyses. Generally, material model parameterizations should be valid from temperatures of approximately -50 to 70° C, across a range of strain rates, and (depending on details of the parts involved) large deformations. Each material covered in this document is presented in its own chapter with a common format across materials. Model assumptions, limitations, existing validation results, readiness for use with uncertainty quantification, general usage guidance, and failure considerations are all provided along with specific parameterization inputs suitable for the finite element analysis code Sierra/Solid Mechanics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Black-Box Neural System Identification and Differentiable Programming to Improve Earth System Model Predictions February

Focal Area(s): Focal Area 2: AI for predictive modeling, including AI-derived model components, and AI-enabled applications including parameter optimization, data assimilation, and uncertainty quantification. Focal Area 1: AI-assisted data assimilation using numerical Earth system models. Science Challenge: Earth system models have structural biases that lead to uncertain predictions, and their complexity and expense makes it difficult constraining the models with data or improved physical understanding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Earth System Model Improvement Pipeline via Uncertainty Attribution and Active Learning

Primary focal area: 2 (Predictive Modeling via AI): We develop methods to formally quantify uncertainties in Earth System models for the land-atmosphere coupled system. Science Challenge: Earth system models still have significant biases in historical predictions of the intensity and frequency of water cycling extremes (e.g., droughts and flood events), leading to low confidence in future projections. Uncertainties arise from incomplete understanding of land and atmospheric processes, and insufficient observational constraints on model parameters. Many observations, including those from key DOE investments such as ARM and AmeriFlux, are used to evaluate model performance but have not been used to formally quantify model uncertainty because of the expense of running ESM simulations. An efficient pipeline engaging cutting-edge machine learning (ML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods is needed to improve the predictive understanding of water cycle extremes in the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Feature Detection

Focal Area(s): This proposal aims to develop and evaluate statistical models and machine learning algorithms for detecting and tracking features in spatiotemporal remotely sensed data with uncertainty quantification. We focus a particular application on the detection of sea ice leads and ridges in the Arctic and use these key sea ice features for model calibration and to gain insight into the physics of sea ice thermodynamics and deformation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrative data-driven approaches for characterization & prediction of aerosol-cloud processes

Focal Area: Advanced methods to glean insights from complex data (Focal Area 3). Science Challenge: Fusing and interpreting the vast amount of data from disjoint sources for the purpose of elevating our understanding of aerosol-cloud interaction presents an enormous challenge and opportunity and is necessary to improve uncertainty quantification and predictions, especially for extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗