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DOE OSTI2022

Evolving Metrics for Resource Adequacy Assessment

Resource adequacy analysis quantifies the likelihood of capacity shortfall on a power system in a probabilistic manner. Using a combination of statistical techniques and power system fundamentals, the analysis typically evaluates hundreds or thousands of stochastic random samples (replications) of varying load, generator outages, variable renewable energy availability, and other aspects of power system uncertainty. In this range of uncertainty, there are - at times - periods where the power system's available resources are insufficient to meet system demand, referred to as a shortfall event. Today's power systems' rapidly evolving generation mix is changing the types of data needed by system planners and regulators, which can often render traditional resource adequacy metrics insufficient for ensuring resource adequacy for tomorrow's grid. In this paper we provide a critical assessment of traditional measures of shortfall risk in power systems, discussing their shortcomings and how they compare to metrics used in other domains. From this analysis we propose four steps forward for improving power system resource adequacy risk metrics in the future.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Beyond Expected Values Evolving Metrics for Resource Adequacy Assessment

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine-Protection System for the PIP-II Linear Accelerator: Architecture and Data Processing Schemes

PIP-II at Fermilab features a brand-new, 800 MeV leading-edge Linear Accelerator (Linac) that will enable the Fermilab complex to deliver more than a megawatt of beam power to the Long Base-line Neutrino Facility (LBNF), requiring a robust Machine Protection System (MPS) to prevent beam-induced damage to delicate cryomodules and vacuum components. Signals in various accelerator components, in both analog and digital format, are collected and processed to assest the operating conditions of the accelerator. In the situation a potential damage is foreseen, the beam permit signal will be drop. A critical element of this system is the fast Analog Machine Protection System, a high-bandwidth platform designed for real-time beam loss monitoring. The system utilizes a modular, FPGA-based architecture to digitize signals from beam-sensing devices, such as AC Current Transformers (ACCTs), non-invasive Ring Pickups (RPUs) and beam scrapers. To eliminate both high frequency as well as 60 Hz noise that might be picked up in the industrial environment, data processing schemes beyond regular digital filtering are planned and implemented.

Wu, Jinyuan [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000344329521)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the time‐specific kinetic energy of simulated rainfall using a dynamic rain gauge system

Abstract Raindrop impact derives from the kinetic energy of falling raindrops. Determining the kinetic energy of rainfall requires the size distribution and terminal velocity of raindrops, which necessitates complex instrumentation. To avoid this, empirical relations have been developed that relate rainfall intensity and the rate of kinetic energy, i.e., time‐specific kinetic energy (KE time ). In this study, a dynamic rain gauge system (DRGS) was used to quantify the KE time generated by a rainfall simulator without need of measuring raindrop size distributions or impact velocities. In a series of 10 rainfall tests, the KE time and rainfall intensity were 860.9 (±88.6) J m 2 h −1 and 72.1 (±1.9) mm h −1 , respectively. Estimated KE time was found to agree well with the power‐law relation presented by Petrů and Kalibová for high‐intensity simulated rainfall, which are the conditions when higher deviations occur. The DRGS may be a useful tool in quantifying the KE time of rainfall simulators in hopes to better understand raindrop impact mechanisms.

Wacha, Kenneth M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Subseasonal Earth System Prediction with CESM2

Abstract Prediction systems to enable Earth system predictability research on the subseasonal time scale have been developed with the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2) using two configurations that differ in their atmospheric components. One system uses the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6) with its top near 40 km, referred to as CESM2(CAM6). The other employs the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 6 (WACCM6) whose top extends to ∼140 km, and it includes fully interactive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry [CESM2(WACCM6)]. Both systems are utilized to carry out subseasonal reforecasts for the 1999–2020 period following the Subseasonal Experiment’s (SubX) protocol. Subseasonal prediction skill from both systems is compared to those of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration CFSv2 and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational models. CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) show very similar subseasonal prediction skill of 2-m temperature, precipitation, the Madden–Julian oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation to its previous version and to the NOAA CFSv2 model. Overall, skill of CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) is a little lower than that of the ECMWF system. In addition to typical output provided by subseasonal prediction systems, CESM2 reforecasts provide comprehensive datasets for predictability research of multiple Earth system components, including three-dimensional output for many variables, and output specific to the mesosphere and lower-thermosphere (MLT) region from CESM2(WACCM6). It is shown that sudden stratosphere warming events, and the associated variability in the MLT, can be predicted ∼10 days in advance. Weekly real-time forecasts and reforecasts with CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) are freely available. Significance Statement We describe here the design and prediction skill of two subseasonal prediction systems based on two configurations of the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2): CESM2 with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 [CESM2(CAM6)] and CESM 2 with Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 6 [CESM2(WACCM6)] as its atmospheric component. These two systems provide a foundation for community-model based subseasonal prediction research. The CESM2(WACCM6) system provides a novel capability to explore the predictability of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere. Both CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) demonstrate subseasonal surface prediction skill comparable to that of the NOAA CFSv2 model, and a little lower than that of the ECMWF forecasting system. CESM2 reforecasts provide a comprehensive dataset for predictability research of multiple aspects of the Earth system, including the whole atmosphere up to 140 km, land, and sea ice. Weekly real-time forecasts, reforecasts, and models are publicly available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantitative comparison between sub-millisecond time resolution single-molecule FRET measurements and 10-second molecular simulations of a biosensor protein

Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations seek to provide atomic-level insights into conformationally dynamic biological systems at experimentally relevant time resolutions, such as those afforded by single-molecule fluorescence measurements. However, limitations in the time scales of MD simulations and the time resolution of single-molecule measurements have challenged efforts to obtain overlapping temporal regimes required for close quantitative comparisons. Achieving such overlap has the potential to provide novel theories, hypotheses, and interpretations that can inform idealized experimental designs that maximize the detection of the desired reaction coordinate. Here, we report MD simulations at time scales overlapping with in vitro single-molecule Förster (fluorescence) resonance energy transfer (smFRET) measurements of the amino acid binding protein LIV-BP SS at sub-millisecond resolution. Computationally efficient all-atom structure-based simulations, calibrated against explicit solvent simulations, were employed for sampling multiple cycles of LIV-BP SS clamshell-like conformational changes on the time scale of seconds, examining the relationship between these events and those observed by smFRET. The MD simulations agree with the smFRET measurements and provide valuable information on local dynamics of fluorophores at their sites of attachment on LIV-BP SS and the correlations between fluorophore motions and large-scale conformational changes between LIV-BP SS domains. We further utilize the MD simulations to inform the interpretation of smFRET data, including Förster radius (R 0 ) and fluorophore orientation factor (κ 2 ) determinations. The approach we describe can be readily extended to distinct biochemical systems, allowing for the interpretation of any FRET system conjugated to protein or ribonucleoprotein complexes, including those with more conformational processes, as well as those implementing multi-color smFRET.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Load Diversity and Variability Modeling for Quasi-Static Time-Series Simulation on Distribution Feeders

This paper presents a data-driven load modeling methodology for distribution system quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulation considering both diversity and variability characteristics of distribution loads. Based on our previous work in [1]-[2], a variability library and diversity library have been established based on the realistic high-resolution data collected from actual utility feeders. Given the load profile for the start-of-circuit load of a feeder, the loads on the feeder nodes can be modeled with both diversity and variability instead of being directly scaled from the substation load profile according to the distribution allocation factors. With diversified load models, the load-induced impact on the feeder operation characteristics, such as voltage ramp and regulator operations, can be better considered in QSTS simulation. The proposed modeling methodology has been tested on both the IEEE 123-bus feeder and an actual utility feeder model, and the simulation results have demonstrated the merits of deploying the proposed load modeling methodology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mobility Energy Productivity Evaluation of Prediction-Based Vehicle Powertrain Control Combined with Optimal Traffic Management

Transportation vehicle and network system efficiency can be defined in two ways: 1) reduction of travel times across all the vehicles in the system, and 2) reduction in total energy consumed by all the vehicles in the system. The mechanisms to realize these efficiencies are treated as independent (i.e., vehicle and network domains) and, when combined, they have not been adequately studied to date. This research aims to integrate previously developed and published research on Predictive Optimal Energy Management Strategies (POEMS) and Intelligent Traffic Systems (ITS), to address the need for quantifying improvement in system efficiency resulting from simultaneous vehicle and network optimization. POEMS and ITS are partially independent methods which do not require each other to function but whose individual effectiveness may be affected by the presence of the other. In order to evaluate the system level efficiency improvements, the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric is used. MEP specifically measures the connectedness of a system while accounting for time and energy externalities of modes that provide mobility in a given location. A SUMO model is developed to reflect real traffic patterns in Fort Collins, Colorado and data is collected by a probe SUMO vehicle which is validated against data collected on a real vehicle driving the same routes through the city. Individual vehicle and system level efficiencies are calculated using SUMO outputs for scenarios which integrate POEMS and ITS independently as well as jointly. Results from application of POEMS and ITS show improvement in energy consumption and travel times respectively when compared to the respective baseline scenarios. Our conclusion is that there are promising synergistic benefits to travel time and energy efficiency when POEMS and ITS are combined.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sensing performance of sub-100-nm vanadium oxide films for room temperature thermal detection applications

Vanadium oxide films are widely employed as thermal detectors in uncooled infrared detection systems due to their high temperature coefficient of resistance near room temperature. One strategy toward maximizing detectivity and reducing the thermal time constant in these systems is to minimize the system platform dimensions. This approach necessitates thinner film thicknesses ([Formula: see text]100 nm), for which there is little information regarding thermal sensing performance. Herein, we report on the sensitivity of reactively sputtered vanadium oxide thin film resistive thermometers nominally ranging from 100 to 25 nm and assess the influence of thermal annealing. Here we demonstrate that films in this minimum limit of thickness maintain a high temperature coefficient while additionally providing an enhancement in characteristics of the noise equivalent power.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Absolutely Stable Time Crystals at Finite Temperature

Here, we show that locally interacting, periodically driven (Floquet) Hamiltonian dynamics coupled to a Langevin bath support finite-temperature discrete time crystals (DTCs) with an infinite autocorrelation time. By contrast to both prethermal and many-body localized DTCs, the time crystalline order we uncover is stable to arbitrary perturbations, including those that break the time translation symmetry of the underlying drive. Our approach utilizes a general mapping from probabilistic cellular automata to open classical Floquet systems undergoing continuous-time Langevin dynamics. Applying this mapping to a variant of the Toom cellular automaton, which we dub the "π-Toom time crystal," leads to a 2D Floquet Hamiltonian with a finite-temperature DTC phase transition. We provide numerical evidence for the existence of this transition, and analyze the statistics of the finite temperature fluctuations. Finally, we discuss how general results from the field of probabilistic cellular automata imply the existence of discrete time crystals (with an infinite autocorrelation time) in all dimensions, d ≥ 1.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analog Signal Multiplexing System for the Iota Proton Injector

The Fermilab Accelerator Science and Technology (FAST) Facility at FNAL is a dedicated research and development center focused on advancing particle accelerator technologies for future applications worldwide. Currently, a key objective of FAST Operations is to commission the 2.5 MeV IOTA Proton Injector (IPI) and enable proton injection into the Integrable Optics Test Accelerator (IOTA) storage ring. The low and medium-energy sections of the IPI include four frame-style dipole trims and two multi-function correctors with independently controlled coils, requiring readout of 32 analog channels for current and voltage monitoring in total. To reduce cost and optimize rack space within the PLC-based control system, a 32-to-4 analog signal multiplexing system was designed and implemented. This system enables real-time readback of excitation parameters from all magnetic correctors. This paper presents the design, construction, implementation, and performance of the multiplexing system.

MacLean, Daniel R. [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000210103↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analog Signal Multiplexing System for the IOTA Proton Injector

he Fermilab Accelerator Science and Technology (FAST) Facility at FNAL is a dedicated research and development center focused on advancing particle accelerator technologies for future applications worldwide. Currently, a key objective of FAST Opera-tions is to commission the 2.5 MeV IOTA Proton Injec-tor (IPI) and enable proton injection into the Integrable Optics Test Accelerator (IOTA) storage ring. The low and medium-energy sections of the IPI include four frame-style dipole trims and two multi-function cor-rectors with independently controlled coils, requiring readout of 32 analog channels for current and voltage monitoring in total. To reduce cost and optimize rack space within the PLC-based control system, a 32-to-4 analog signal multiplexing system was designed and implemented. This system enables real-time readback of excitation parameters from all magnetic correctors. This paper presents the design, construction, implementation, and performance of the multiplexing system.

MacLean, Daniel R. [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000210103↗

DOE OSTI2022

Tracing and Forecasting Metabolic Indices of Cancer Patients Using Patient-Specific Deep Learning Models

We develop a patient-specific dynamical system model from the time series data of the cancer patient’s metabolic panel taken during the period of cancer treatment and recovery. The model consists of a pair of stacked long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks and a fully connected neural network in each unit. It is intended to be used by physicians to trace back and look forward at the patient’s metabolic indices, to identify potential adverse events, and to make short-term predictions. When the model is used in making short-term predictions, the relative error in every index is less than 10% in the L ∞ norm and less than 6.3% in the L 1 norm in the validation process. Once a master model is built, the patient-specific model can be calibrated through transfer learning. As an example, we obtain patient-specific models for four more cancer patients through transfer learning, which all exhibit reduced training time and a comparable level of accuracy. This study demonstrates that this modeling approach is reliable and can deliver clinically acceptable physiological models for tracking and forecasting patients’ metabolic indices.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Trace Key Mechanistic Features of the Arsenite Sequestration Reaction with Nanoscale Zerovalent Iron

Nanoscale zerovalent iron (nZVI) is considered as a highly efficient material for sequestrating arsenite, but the origin of its high efficacy as well as the chemical transformations of arsenite during reaction is not well understood. Here, in this study, we report an in situ X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) study to investigate the complex mechanism of nZVI reaction with arsenite under anaerobic conditions at the time scale from seconds to days. The time-resolved XAS analysis revealed a gradual oxidation of As III to As V in the course of minutes to hours in both the solid and liquid phase for the high (above 0.5 g/L) nZVI dose system. When the reaction time increased up to 60 days, As V became the dominant species. The quick-scanning extended X-ray absorption fine structure (QEAXFS) was introduced to discover the transient intermediate at the highly reactive stage, and a small red-shift in As K-edge absorption edge was observed. The QEAXFS combined with density functional theory (DFT) calculation suggested that the red-shift is likely due to the electron donation in a Fe-O-As complex and possible active sites of As sequestrations include Fe(OH) 4 and 4-Fe cluster. This is the first time that the transient reaction intermediate was identified in the As-nZVI sequestration system at the fast-reacting early stage. This study also demonstrated usefulness of in situ monitoring techniques in environmental water research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning for Scalable and Optimal Load Shedding Under Power System Contingency

Prompt and effective corrective actions in response to unexpected contingencies are crucial for improving power system resilience and preventing cascading blackouts. The optimal load shedding (OLS) accounting for network limits has the potential to address the diverse system-wide impacts of contingency scenarios as compared to traditional local schemes. However, due to the fast cascading propagation of initial contingencies, real-time OLS solutions are challenging to attain in large systems with high computation and communication needs. In this paper, we propose a decentralized design that leverages offline training of a neural network (NN) model for individual load centers to autonomously construct the OLS solutions from locally available measurements. Our learning-for-OLS approach can greatly reduce the computation and communication needs during online emergency responses, thus preventing the cascading propagation of contingencies for enhanced power grid resilience. Numerical studies on both the IEEE 118-bus system and a synthetic Texas 2000-bus system have demonstrated the efficiency and effectiveness of our scalable OLS learning design for timely power system emergency operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Arctic Ocean annual high in ${{\boldsymbol{p}}}_{{{\bf{CO}}}_{{\bf{2}}}}$ could shift from winter to summer

Long-term stress on marine organisms from ocean acidification will differ between seasons. As atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) increases, so do seasonal variations of ocean CO 2 partial pressure (p co 2 ), causing summer and winter long-term trends to diverge. Trends may be further influenced by an unexplored factor—changes in the seasonal timing of p co 2 . In Arctic Ocean surface waters, the observed timing is typified by a winter high and summer low because biological effects dominate thermal effects. Here we show that 27 Earth system models simulate similar timing under historical forcing but generally project that the summer low, relative to the annual mean, eventually becomes a high across much of the Arctic Ocean under mid-to-high-level CO 2 emissions scenarios. Often the greater increase in summer p co 2 , although gradual, abruptly inverses the chronological order of the annual high and low, a phenomenon not previously seen in climate-related variables. The main cause is the large summer sea surface warming from earlier retreat of seasonal sea ice. Warming and changes in other drivers enhance this century’s increase in extreme summer p co 2 by 29 ± 9 per cent compared with no change in driver seasonalities. Thus the timing change worsens summer ocean acidification, which in turn may lower the tolerance of endemic marine organisms to increasing summer temperatures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Computational assessment of smooth and rough parameter dependence of statistics in chaotic dynamical systems

An assumption of smooth response to small parameter changes, of statistics or long-time averages of a chaotic system, is generally made in the field of sensitivity analysis, and the parametric derivatives of statistical quantities are critically used in science and engineering. In this paper, we propose a numerical procedure to assess the differentiability of statistics with respect to parameters in chaotic systems. Here, we numerically show that the existence of the derivative depends on the Lebesgue integrability of a certain density gradient function, which we define as the derivative of logarithmic SRB density along the unstable manifold. We develop a recursive formula for the density gradient that can be efficiently computed along trajectories, and demonstrate its use in determining the differentiability of statistics. Our numerical procedure is illustrated on low-dimensional chaotic systems whose statistics exhibit both smooth and rough regions in parameter space.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Implicit fast sweeping method for hyperbolic systems of conservation laws

Implicit time-accurate methods are often used to integrate stiff problems where explicit schemes impose severe time step restrictions. This paper presents an efficient numerical framework based on the Fast Sweeping Method (FSM) for solving linear and nonlinear hyperbolic systems of conservation laws. The solution at each discrete location is computed by sweeping the numerical domain in several predetermined directions that follow the causality of the characteristic families. The use of a fractional step strategy eliminates the need for a solution selection criterion while one-sided stencils limit the number of sweeps to at most 2 d for d space dimensions. This work focuses on the first-order implicit upwind method since it constitutes the building block for high-order conservative schemes. For problems where the degree of stiffness evolves over time, implicit-explicit hybridization can be accomplished with the same algorithm by simply switching the stencil at each time level. As opposed to traditional implicit solvers, the sweeping method does not require a local time linearization of the fluxes thereby preserving the nonlinear stability properties of the original implicit scheme. It also avoids the large computational and memory requirements associated with solving large block-diagonal systems of equations. Here, a series of one- and two-dimensional test cases are presented for the inviscid Burgers' equation and the reactive Euler equations. The results indicate that the implicit FSM can allow a major reduction in the number of time steps even in the presence of discontinuous solution profiles.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗