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At least 1,117 records · Page 62
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Potential Ergonomic Injury Risk in the Nuclear Material Processing Glovebox Environment [Capstone Project]

Gloveboxes are isolation barriers that are used within many different industries such as pharmaceuticals, electronic parts fabrication, nuclear, and biological. The research on glovebox ergonomics is currently limited with few ergonomic professionals that focusing exclusively on glovebox working environments. There is existing documentation on occupational injuries, such as musculoskeletal disorders (MSD), sustained as a direct result of working in gloveboxes. The main elements that pose ergonomic risks to glovebox workers are operational repetition, duration, force, vibration, lifting heavy (more than 15lbs with two hands) objects, and awkward postures. This paper examines a small sample of the potential causal or risk factors that lead to the ergonomic injuries. A meta-analysis utilizing a random effect model is used to examine data from several studies which focus on, dexterity and strength changes as result of glove thickness, and robotic assistive technology as a means to improve postural mechanics. With the meta-analysis technique, similar data sets from different research studies can be coalesced into a single weighted, statistically significant result for subsequent consideration. The results from the analysis show that increased glove thickness results in decreased dexterity for operators thus increasing ergonomic risk factors such as task duration. It is also shown that glove thickness decreases grip strength but a similar decrease in pinch strength is not definitively demonstrated. With decreased grip strength, operators will need to exert more force (a known ergonomic risk factor) on processing tools, etc. during operations thus increasing the risk of ergonomic injury. The use of robotic assistive technology as a means to improve operator posture (risk factor) was also examined. Although it may be intuitively assumed that human-robotic collaboration would be beneficial in reducing risk factors, the result from this study’s analysis was not statistically significant. It is inferred that with additional directed research on this topic another study/analysis could be statistically significant demonstrating the benefits of the technology.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantitative Characterization of Hyper-Local Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Sources

Atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are often characterized using stationary, tower-based sensors. Ground based sensors reside in the turbulent boundary layer and are subject to intense concentration impulses from hyper-local (<100m) point sources of emissions. These high frequency spikes are often filtered out in broader emission flux studies, losing valuable information about how hyper-local sources influence receptors. In this study, we investigated how empirical atmospheric data can be used to locate and quantify a concurrently measured hyper-local point source in a dense urban setting. An eddy covariance style tower and a low-cost sensor tower were deployed in various locations around an urban, hyper-local CO2/CH4 emissions source (a continuously measured restaurant exhaust vent). A model using different processing and statistical techniques was built to examine the most effective procedures for source isolation, directional location, and emission quantification. Using excess concentrations above a minimum baseline, we identify the source using bivariate polar plots and quantify the relationship between source size, receptor distance, and statistical proxies. Furthermore, we find that varying statistical thresholds allows for identification of less influential sources which are drowned out by larger or closer sources. Finally, we show that large sources can be effectively characterized using low-cost sensors, a valuable outcome informing how networks for monitoring larger areas could be implemented. This work may provide a basis for source identification and monitoring protocols for networks that feature sensors influenced by hyper-local point sources, subject to site-specific assumptions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Verification Testing of OLI Systems Mixed Solvent Electrolyte Model for the Na-K-Mg-Ca-H-Cl-SO 4 -OH-HCO 3 -CO 3 -CO 2 -H 2 ) System to High Ionic Strength at 25°C

This technical report summarizes model verification results and summary statistics for 41 evaporite mineral solubility cases evaluated by Savannah River National Laboratory using OLI Systems’ aqueous electrolyte thermodynamic modeling software. The 41 verification cases containing a total of 60 solubility curves comprise mineral solubility data from low to high ionic strength at 25°C for the eight-component system Na-K-Mg-Ca-H-Cl-SO 4 -OH-HCO 3 -CO 3 -CO 2 -H 2 O as reported by Harvie et al. (1984). Thermodynamic calculations were executed using OLI Systems’ Stream Analyzer computation module within the OLI Studio software platform (Ver. 11.0, Rev. 11.0.1.9). The Mixed Solvent Electrolyte (MSE) thermodynamic framework was chosen for this investigation because of its superiority in modeling high ionic-strength inorganic salt solutions and actinide redox chemistry and solubility, both of which are relevant to the geological repository conditions at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in Carlsbad, New Mexico. Mineral solubility data in various inorganic salt solutions were digitized and extracted from figures generated by Harvie et al. (1984). For each of the 60 solubility curves, a case-specific chemistry model and input file were generated in OLI Studio using OLI Stream Analyzer and the MSE (H 3 O + ion) public databank provided by OLI Systems. Model simulation results were exported to Microsoft Excel to calculate summary statistics and to generate graphs comparing the OLI model predictions to the solubility data. Summary statistics include residuals (model – data) and concordance (accuracy × precision, where precision is indicated by the Pearson correlation coefficient and accuracy accounts for bias and scale differential). Private databanks were not developed, and activity coefficient model regressions were not performed to improve OLI model fits to the data. Of the 41 model verification plots, 83% have a mean of the percent residuals less than or equal to 25%. Similarly, 75% display a concordance greater than or equal to 0.75. Only seven of the 41 verification plots fail to show good agreement between the model and data. Of these seven, three are relevant to the WIPP repository because they involve the Mg-OH-Cl-SO 4 -CO 3 aqueous system. The remaining four address salt solubilities at the pH extremes (strong acid and strong base). It should be noted that in two of the three Mg-OH-Cl-SO 4 -CO 3 system cases, the regressed Harvie et al. (1984) solubility curve also deviated from the data. Lack of agreement between the OLI model-predicted solubility curves and the data is attributable to one or more of the following: specific solid species are not included in the OLI MSE databank; there is significant variation among the different solubility datasets chosen by Harvie et al. (1984); the OLI MSE model’s thermodynamic parameters were determined using different solubility datasets; and the activity coefficient parameters for certain relevant ion-ion and ion-molecule pairs have not been optimized via data regression. Two recommendations for future work are to (1) evaluate solubility data for the Mg-OH-Cl-SO 4 -CO 3 system at high ionic strength and, if necessary, develop a private OLI MSE database that includes missing species and, where necessary, regressed standard state properties and interaction parameters; (2) perform similar verification testing of the OLI model for actinide solubility data.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seeing through noise in power laws

Despite widespread claims of power laws across the natural and social sciences, evidence in data is often equivocal. Modern data and statistical methods reject even classic power laws such as Pareto’s law of wealth and the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes. We show that the maximum-likelihood estimators and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) statistics in widespread use are unexpectedly sensitive to ubiquitous errors in data such as measurement noise, quantization noise, heaping and censorship of small values. This sensitivity causes spurious rejection of power laws and biases parameter estimates even in arbitrarily large samples, which explains inconsistencies between theory and data. We show that logarithmic binning by powers of λ > 1 attenuates these errors in a manner analogous to noise averaging in normal statistics and that λ thereby tunes a trade-off between accuracy and precision in estimation. Binning also removes potentially misleading within-scale information while preserving information about the shape of a distribution over powers of λ, and we show that some amount of binning can improve sensitivity and specificity of K-S tests without any cost, while more extreme binning tunes a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. We therefore advocate logarithmic binning as a simple essential step in power-law inference.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Subseasonal Forecasting of Extreme Polar Vortices Using Machine Learning

Our research was focused on forecasting the position and shape of the winter stratospheric polar vortex at a subseasonal timescale of 15 days in advance. To achieve this, we employed both statistical and neural network machine learning techniques. The analysis was performed on 42 winter seasons of reanalysis data provided by NASA giving us a total of 6,342 days of data. The state of the polar vortex for determined by using geometric moments to calculate the centroid latitude and the aspect ratio of an ellipse fit onto the vortex. Timeseries for thirty additional precursors were calculated to help improve the predictive capabilities of the algorithm. Feature importance of these precursors was performed using random forest to measure the predictive importance and the ideal number of precursors. Then, using the precursors identified as important, various statistical methods were tested for predictive accuracy with random forest and nearest neighbor performing the best. An echo state network, a type of recurrent neural network that features sparsely connected hidden layer and a reduced number of trainable parameters that allows for rapid training and testing, was also implemented for the forecasting problem. Hyperparameter tuning was performed for each methods using a subset of the training data. The algorithms were trained and tuned on the first 41 years of data, then tested for accuracy on the final year. In general, the centroid latitude of the polar vortex proved easier to predict than the aspect ratio across all algorithms. Random forest outperformed other statistical forecasting algorithms overall but struggled to predict extreme values. Forecasting from echo state network suggested a strong predictive capability past 15 days, but further work is required to fully realize the potential of recurrent neural network approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

STAT7 v1.2 Verification and Validation Report

This report documents the software testing which has been performed for the STAT7 Version 1.2 (hereafter STAT7 v1.2) software, a code for the statistical propagation of uncertainties in steady-state thermal hydraulics (TH) analysis of plate-fueled research and test reactors. The key capabilities addressed in this testing were selected based on the use of the software for analysis work supporting the conversion to low-enriched uranium fuel of U.S. High-Performance Research Reactors (USHPRR) such as the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Research Reactor (MITR-II). This testing scope includes comparison of the code’s statistical processing capabilities using statistical tests, comparison of coolant property evaluations to NIST data tables, and systematic comparison of key TH solver capabilities to the results of hand calculations and to predictions from PLTEMP/ANL Version 4.4. The good agreement achieved in this testing campaign, within the acceptance criteria of a 1% relative difference, also demonstrates that these capabilities have been implemented in STAT7 v1.2 correctly.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Discovering Dark Matter Clumps and Primordial Particles with Galaxies

Cosmological observations and galaxy dynamics seem to imply that five out of six parts in mass of all matter in the universe is composed of dark matter, which is not accounted for by the Standard Model of particles. The cold dark matter (CDM) paradigm has been extremely successful at describing observations on large-cosmological scale. However, many different dark matter candidates have the same observable effects as CDM on large-length scales. One possible avenue to distinguish between these different models is to look on much smaller-length scales, where usually dark matter models become distinguishable. This research developed the theoretical framework and statistical tools needed to map the detailed distribution of dark matter on subgalactic scales using strong gravitational lensing. A second goal of this research was to build new statistical techniques that efficiently exploit the full power of cosmic-structure data from next-generation surveys. Galaxy clustering on large scales provides significant cosmological information through the power spectrum. Additional information can be gained from higher-order statistics. This research provided new ways to understand the initial conditions of the universe from current and upcoming cosmological surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Describing Point Defect Topology in 2D Energy Materials Through Computer Vision

Point defects such as vacancies and impurity atoms strongly impact the performance of 2D materials. Traditional efforts often rely on manual detection, a process that is time-intensive, prone to human error, and challenging to scale. Here we leverage machine learning (ML) methods to identify and quantify vacancies within 2D transition metal carbides (Ti3C2, MXenes), aiming to expedite detection while improving accuracy. MXenes exhibit valuable defect-defined electrochemical properties, but we currently lack statistical understanding of defect topology needed to fully harness these materials. Here we employ a convolutional neural network for semantic segmentation of experimental MXene images, opening an opportunity to conduct a rigorous statistical study on defect hierarchy while investigating local relaxation in the lattice. We show how the integration of ML can yield fundamental insight into point defects, providing a powerful tool that will play an increasingly crucial role in the future of materials science. ML is often not just a matter of straightforward application, and pretrained models proved ineffective in this case. Instead, we trained our own neural network (NN) and applied data augmentation techniques and fine-tuning to the training dataset. Since labeled microscopy data is often scarce, we developed training data from a previously published wide-frame MXene image, using customized Gaussian fitting to locate atomic positions. Our trained model was then applied to a large dataset of experimental images, enabling a statistical study of defect configurations across three samples prepared with different HF etchant concentrations (5%, 9.1%, and 12.5%), as shown in Fig. 1. This also allowed us to investigate local strain around vacancies, though we find that we are limited by the precision of measurements using high-angle annular dark field (HAADF) images, as shown in Fig. 2. This study demonstrates how ML enables large-scale, quantitative analysis of atomic defects - an otherwise infeasible task with traditional methods. While our NN was specialized for Ti3C2 MXenes, the pipeline we developed provides a foundation for future ML models tailored to other materials. Ultimately, we envision embedding the NN onto the microscope to give real-time feedback to the user. To make this a reality, continued work is necessary to fully understand the NN's capabilities and limitations. This study gets one step closer to our goals of automated experimentation moving away from traditional methods of manual labeling. As ML capabilities advance, we hope to continue adapting and applying these techniques in microscopy.

2D materials↗
DOE OSTI2025

Correct Interpretations of ENDF-102 Definitions for Resonance Effects

My Uncle Willie circa 1600 wrote “What’s in a name; a rose by any other name would smell as sweet.” I fear in this case we have a somewhat similar problem in that we may be using the same word but are not using the same definition; specifically, the word Unresolved. The simplest physics definition as it applies to neutron resonances, is the energy point where we can no longer see/measure ALL – let me repeat that – ALL - of the individual resonances. That seems simple and clear, but the question is: how to represent resonances beyond this point in order to accurately reproduce the effects we have seen in measurements and expect/need to reproduce in our applications. We know there are more, unseen resonances, otherwise we wouldn’t say Unresolved. The ENDF approach is well defined in ENDF-102 and simple: for ENDF data the only way to represent Unresolved data is by using a theoretical model to define the distribution of resonances, including those that are too narrow to measure (i.e., are unresolved). It is important to note that in ENDF this is the one and only Unresolved model, e.g., there is no provision in ENDF to accurately define individually ALL resonances above the Resolved energy range – by ALL here I mean both those that we can measure and those that we cannot individually measure, but that theory and integral measurements tells us are present. An alternative approach, which would appear to be equally valid, would be to include the latest measured data as tabulated energy expendent data extending upwards in energy above the Resolved energy range. In this approach the evaluation would not include an ENDF style Unresolved energy range; it would only include a Resolved resonance region, followed by tabulated higher energy points, representing the resonances that could be measured beyond the Resolved range. But an important point to note: By listing these resonances above the resolved energy one admits that at least some resonances in this energy range are missing as Unresolved; i.e., they are too narrow or overlapping to measure. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate that the later approach, while done with good intentions, and appearing to be valid/adequate in plots, does not meet the need of our engineering applications. Why? As we will see below, of these two possible approaches, only the ENDF use of a model to statistically include the missing, i.e., unresolved, resonances, can meet our engineering needs to reproduce the integral effects we have measured and understand. Only with this statistical model can we predict and include in our calculated results the important effects of temperature (Doppler broadening), and energy integrals (self-shielding). Below I will first present results using two ENDF/B-VIII.1 evaluations, U235 and U238, that use the correct ENDF-102 definition of an Unresolved resonance region, using a statistical model to include the effects of resonances that theory predicts are present, but are too narrow to measure. These two evaluations reproduce the expected temperature (Doppler) and energy integral (self-shielding) effects that we expect. Next I will present results using one ENDF/B-VIII.1 evaluation, 26-Fe-56, that does not use an ENDF-102 Unresolved resonance region; instead above its Resolved energy range it lists many tabulated energy points, that look like measured data, but by definition, since they are included above the ENDF Resolved energy range there are missing Unresolved resonances, i.e., there are missing the resonances that are too narrow to resolve, i.e., are unresolved. My conclusion, and I hope yours, is that the below figures illustrate that this approach does not reproduce the temperature and energy integrals that we expect and need to accurately calculate results for our fission reactor calculations. As such this approach should not be used in ENDF formatted evaluations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

STAT7 v2.0 Verification and Validation Report

This report documents the software testing which has been performed for STAT7 Version 2.0 (hereafter STAT7 v2.0), a code for the statistical propagation of uncertainties in steady-state thermal hydraulics (TH) analysis of plate-fueled research and test reactors. The key capabilities addressed in this testing were selected based on the use of the software for analysis work supporting the conversion to low-enriched uranium fuel of U.S. High-Performance Research Reactors (USHPRR) such as the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Research Reactor (MITR-II). This testing scope includes comparison of the code’s statistical processing capabilities using statistical tests, comparison of coolant property evaluations to NIST data tables, and systematic comparison of key TH solver capabilities to the results of hand calculations and to predictions from PLTEMP/ANL Version 4.4. The

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modernizing GlideinWMS Factory Monitoring with Prometheus & Grafana

Large-scale scientific experiments like CMS and DUNE rely on the distributed workload management system GlideinWMS to efficiently utilize computing resources across heterogeneous computing environments. GlideinWMS currently records Factory statistics using Round Robin Databases (RRDBs), XML, and JSON files, and these statistics are displayed via custom monitoring Web pages, thereby limiting integration with modern observability platforms. This project investigates the use of Prometheus-based instrumentation to expose Factory metrics using OpenTelemetry principles. Factory statistics related to Glidein submission and job execution are exported as Prometheus metrics through the Prometheus Python Client Library and are served via an HTTP metrics endpoint. The collected metrics are inspected using the Prometheus web-based interface and are visualized through Grafana dashboards within the Landscape monitoring infrastructure at Fermilab. This project significantly streamlines the integration of modern monitoring technologies into GlideinWMS and establishes a framework for extending observability across additional system components.

Appiah, Gideon [Grambling State U.]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Framework for Optimal Control of Planetary Reentry Trajectories Under Multilevel Uncertainties

We present a novel stochastic optimal control framework that accounts for various types of uncertainties, with application to reentry trajectory planning. The formulation of the optimal trajectory control problem is presented in the context of an indirect method where a functional objective associated with the terminal vehicle speed is to be minimized. Uncertain input parameters in the optimal trajectory control model, including aerodynamic parameters and initial and terminal conditions, are modeled as aleatory random variables, while the statistical parameters of these aleatory distributions are themselves random variables. The parametric and model uncertainties are simultaneously propagated through an extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE) formalism. Several metrics are described to evaluate response statistics and presented as insightful tools for robust decision making. Specifically, the response probability density function (PDF) reflecting influence of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is obtained. By sampling over the random variables representing model error, an ensemble of response PDFs is generated and the associated failure probability is estimated as a random variable with its own polynomial chaos expansion. Besides, the sensitivity index functions of response PDF with respect to the statistical parameters are evaluated. Coupling parametric and model uncertainties within the EPCE framework leads to a robust and efficient paradigm for multilevel uncertainty propagation and PDF characterization in general optimal control problems.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sustainability Trait Modeling of Field-Grown Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) Using UAV-Based Imagery

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) provide an intermediate scale of spatial and spectral data collection that yields increased accuracy and consistency in data collection for morphological and physiological traits than satellites and expanded flexibility and high-throughput compared to ground-based data collection. In this project, we used UAV-based multispectral imagery collected from MicaSense RedEdge-M on a DJI Matrice 600 Pro for automated phenotyping of field-grown switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), a leading bioenergy feedstock. The raw images were processed with Pix4D Mapper to create the reflectance data, and vegetation indices were calculated from a UAV-based multispectral camera. Statistical models were developed for rust disease caused by Puccinia novopanici, leaf chlorophyll, nitrogen, and lignin contents. For the first time, UAV remote sensing technology was used to explore the potential for multiple traits associated with sustainable production of switchgrass. One statistical model was developed for each individual trait based on the statistical correlation between vegetation indices and the corresponding trait.

CBI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Galaxy Clustering with LSST: Effects of Number Count Bias from Blending

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will survey the southern sky to create the largest galaxy catalog to date, and its statistical power demands an improved understanding of systematic effects such as source overlaps, also known as blending. In this work we study how blending introduces a bias in the number counts of galaxies (instead of the flux and colors), and how it propagates into galaxy clustering statistics. We use the 300 deg 2 DC2 image simulation and its resulting galaxy catalog (LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration et al. 2021) to carry out this study. We find that, for a LSST Year 1 (Y1)-like cosmological analyses, the number count bias due to blending leads to small but statistically significant differences in mean redshift measurements when comparing an observed sample to an unblended calibration sample. In the two-point correlation function, blending causes differences greater than 3σ on scales below approximately 10', but large scales are unaffected. We fit Ω m and linear galaxy bias in a Bayesian cosmological analysis and find that the recovered parameters from this limited area sample, with the LSST Y1 scale cuts, are largely unaffected by blending. Our main results hold when considering photometric redshift and a LSST Year 5 (Y5)-like sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Similarity of the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate distribution in the upper mixed layer of the tropical Indian Ocean

Turbulence within the upper ocean mixed layer plays a key role in various physical, biological, and chemical processes. Between September and November 2011, a dataset of 570 vertical profiles of the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) dissipation rate, as well as conventional hydrological and meteorological data, were collected in the upper layer of the tropical Indian Ocean. These data were used to statistically analyze the vertical distribution of the TKE dissipation rate in the mixed layer. The arithmetic-mean method made the statistical TKE dissipation rate profile more scattered than the median and geometric-mean methods. The statistical TKE dissipation rate were respectively scaled by the surface buoyancy flux and the TKE dissipation rate at the mixed-layer base. It was found that the TKE dissipation rate scaled by that at the mixed-layer base exhibited better similarity characteristics than that scaled by the surface buoyancy flux, whether the stability parameter D/|L MO | was greater or less than 10, indicating that the TKE dissipation rate at the mixed-layer base is a better characteristic scaling parameter for reflecting the intrinsic structure of the TKE dissipation rate in the mixed layer, where D and L MO are respectively the mixed-layer thickness and the Monin-Obukhov length scale. The parameterization of the TKE dissipation rate at the mixed-layer base on the shear-driven dissipation rate and the surface buoyancy flux was further explored. It was found that the TKE dissipation rate at the mixed-layer base could be well fitted by a linear combination of three terms: the wind-shear-driven dissipation rate, the surface buoyancy flux, and a simple nonlinear coupling term of these two.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Permafrost Active Layer Microbes From Ny Ålesund, Svalbard (79°N) Show Autotrophic and Heterotrophic Metabolisms With Diverse Carbon-Degrading Enzymes

The active layer of permafrost in Ny Ålesund, Svalbard (79°N) around the Bayelva River in the Leirhaugen glacier moraine is measured as a small net carbon sink at the brink of becoming a carbon source. In many permafrost-dominating ecosystems, microbes in the active layers have been shown to drive organic matter degradation and greenhouse gas production, creating positive feedback on climate change. However, the microbial metabolisms linking the environmental geochemical processes and the populations that perform them have not been fully characterized. In this paper, we present geochemical, enzymatic, and isotopic data paired with 10 Pseudomonas sp. cultures and metagenomic libraries of two active layer soil cores (BPF1 and BPF2) from Ny Ålesund, Svalbard, (79°N). Relative to BPF1, BPF2 had statistically higher C/N ratios (15 ± 1 for BPF1 vs. 29 ± 10 for BPF2; n = 30, p < 10 –5 ), statistically lower organic carbon (2% ± 0.6% for BPF1 vs. 1.6% ± 0.4% for BPF2, p < 0.02), statistically lower nitrogen (0.1% ± 0.03% for BPF1 vs. 0.07% ± 0.02% for BPF2, p < 10 –6 ). The d 13 C values for inorganic carbon did not correlate with those of organic carbon in BPF2, suggesting lower heterotrophic respiration. An increase in the δ 13 C of inorganic carbon with depth either reflects an autotrophic signal or mixing between a heterotrophic source at the surface and a lithotrophic source at depth. Potential enzyme activity of xylosidase and N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase increases twofold at 15°C, relative to 25°C, indicating cold adaptation in the cultures and bulk soil. Potential enzyme activity of leucine aminopeptidase across soils and cultures was two orders of magnitude higher than other tested enzymes, implying that organisms use leucine as a nitrogen and carbon source in this nutrient-limited environment. Besides demonstrating large variability in carbon compositions of permafrost active layer soils only ∼84 m apart, results suggest that the Svalbard active layer microbes are often limited by organic carbon or nitrogen availability and have adaptations to the current environment, and metabolic flexibility to adapt to the warming climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most economically important livestock diseases worldwide. Following the clinical phase of FMD, a large proportion of ruminants remain persistently infected for extended periods. Although extinction of this carrier state occurs continuously at the animal and population levels, studies vary widely in their estimates of the duration of persistent infection. There is a need for robust statistical models to capture the dynamics of persistent infection for the sake of guiding FMD control and trade policies. The goal of the current study was to develop and assess statistical models to describe the extinction of FMD virus (FMDV) persistent infection using data from primary longitudinal studies of naturally infected cattle and Asian buffalo in Vietnam and India. Specifically, accelerated failure time (AFT) models and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were developed to predict the probability of persistent infection in seropositive animals and identified carriers at the individual animal level at sequential time points after outbreaks. The primary studies were analyzed by country and combined using an individual-participant data meta-analysis approach. The models estimated similar trends in the duration of persistent infection for the study/species groups included in the analyses, however the significance of the trends differed between the models. The overall probabilities of persistent infection were similar as predicted by the AFT and GLMM models: 6 months: 99% (AFT) /80% (GLMM), 12 months: 51% (AFT) /32% (GLMM), 18 months: 6% (AFT) /5% (GLMM), 24 months: 0.8% (AFT) /0.6% (GLMM). These models utilizing diverse and robust data sets predict higher probabilities of persistence than previously published, suggesting greater endurance of carriers subsequent to an outbreak. This study demonstrates the utility of statistical models to investigate the dynamics of persistent infection and the importance of large datasets, which can be achieved by combining data from several smaller studies in meta-analyses. Results of this study enhance current knowledge of the FMDV carrier state and may inform policy decisions regarding FMDV persistent infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Variance Preserving Spectral Subsampling

Generating statistically faithful short-duration gamma-ray spectra from a single long measurement is essential in nuclear safeguards, supporting tasks such as algorithm development and machine-learning applications, especially when list-mode data are unavailable. Existing subsampling methods often distort the statistical characteristics of genuine short-duration measurements, leading to biased or unreliable analytical outcomes and thereby undermining downstream tasks. In this work, we compare five subsampling approaches using a benchmark set of 156 genuine replicate spectra collected with a high-purity germanium detector. We evaluate each method with respect to run-to-run variance, channel-to-channel variance, and preservation of total counts (losslessness). Across a wide range of subsampling ratios, only binomial subsampling without replacement consistently reproduces the statistical properties of genuine short-duration spectra, maintaining proper dispersion even in sparse spectral regions and perfectly preserving total counts. These results provide a mathematically principled and practically validated framework for generating synthetically shortened spectra when true short-duration measurements are unavailable.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗