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NASA NTRS2016

Analysis by NASA's VESGEN Software of Retinal Blood Vessels Before and After 70-Day Bed Rest: A Retrospective Study

Significant risks for visual impairment associated with increased intracranial pressure (VIIP) are incurred by microgravity spaceflight, especially long-duration missions. Impairments include decreased near visual acuity, posterior globe flattening, choroidal folds, optic disc edema and cotton wool spots. We hypothesize that microgravity-induced fluid shifts result in pathological changes within the retinal blood vessels that precede development of visual and other ocular impairments. Potential contributions of retinal vascular remodeling to VIIP etiology are therefore being investigated by NASAs innovative VESsel GENeration Analysis (VESGEN) software for two studies: (1) head-down tilt in human subjects before and after 70 days of bed rest, and (2) U.S. crew members before and after ISS missions. VESGEN analysis in previous research supported by the US National Institutes of Health identified surprising new opportunities to regenerate retinal vessels during early-stage, potentially reversible progression of the visually impairing and blinding disease, diabetic retinopathy.

Vascular↗
NASA NTRS2014

Mapping by VESGEN of Blood Vessels in the Retinas of ISS Crew Members and Bed Rest Subjects for Increased Understanding of VIIP

Research by NASA has established that significant risks for visual impairment in association with increased intracranial pressure (VIIP) are incurred by microgravity spaceflight, especially long-duration missions. Impairments include decreased near visual acuity, posterior globe flattening, choroidal folds, optic disc edema, and cotton wool spots. Much remains to be learned about the etiology of VIIP before effective countermeasures can be developed. Contributions of retinal vascular remodeling to the etiology of VIIP have not yet been investigated, primarily due to the current lack of ophthalmic tools for precisely measuring progressive pathophysiological remodeling of the retinal microvasculature. Although ophthalmic science and clinical practice are now highly sophisticated at detecting indirect, secondary signs of vascular remodeling such as cotton wool spots that arise during the progression of retinal vascular diseases, methods for quantifying direct, primary vascular changes are not yet established. To help develop insightful analysis of retinal vascular remodeling for aerospace medicine, we will map and quantify by our innovative VESsel GENeration Analysis (VESGEN) software the remodeling status of retinal blood vessels in crew members before and after ISS missions, and in healthy human subjects before and after head-down tilt bed rest. For this proof-of-concept study, we hypothesize that pathophysiological remodeling of retinal blood vessels occurs in coordination with microgravity-induced fluid shifts prior to development of visual impairments. VESGEN analysis in previous research supported by the US National Institutes of Health identified surprising new opportunities to regenerate retinal vessels during early-stage progression of the visually impairing, potentially blinding disease, diabetic retinopathy.

ISS Crew↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Robust, Gravity-Insensitive, High-Temperature Condenser for Water Recovery

Regenerative life support systems are vital for NASA's future long-duration human space exploration missions. A Heat Melt Compactor (HMC) system is being developed by NASA to dry and compress trash generated during space missions. The resulting water vapor is recovered and separated from the process gas flow by a gravity-insensitive condenser. Creare is developing a high-temperature condenser for this application. The entire condenser is constructed from metals that have excellent resistance to chemical attack from contaminants and is suitable for high-temperature operation. The metal construction and design configuration also offer greatest flexibility for potential coating and regeneration processes to reduce biofilm growth and thus enhancing the reliability of the condenser. The proposed condenser builds on the gravity-insensitive phase separator technology Creare developed for aircraft and spacecraft applications. This paper will first discuss the design requirements for the condenser in an HMC system that will be demonstrated on the International Space Station (ISS). Then, it will present the overall design of the condenser and the preliminary thermal test results of a subscale condenser. Finally, this paper will discuss the predicted performance of the full-size condenser and the development plan to mature the technology and enhance its long-term reliability for a flight system.

Chen, Weibo↗
NASA NTRS2016

Development of a Microwave Regenerative Sorbent-Based Hydrogen Purifier

This paper describes the design and fabrication of a Microwave Regenerative Sorbent-based Hydrogen Purifier (MRSHP). This unique microwave powered technology was developed for the purification of a hydrogen stream produced by the Plasma Pyrolysis Assembly (PPA). The PPA is a hydrogen recovery (from methane) post processor for NASA's Sabatier-based carbon dioxide reduction process. Embodied in the Carbon dioxide Reduction Assembly (CRA), currently aboard the International Space Station (ISS), the Sabatier reaction employs hydrogen to catalytically recover oxygen, in the form of water, from respiratory carbon dioxide produced by the crew. This same approach is base-lined for future service in the Air Revitalization system on extended missions into deep space where resupply is not practical. Accordingly, manned exploration to Mars may only become feasible with further closure of the air loop as afforded by the greater hydrogen recovery permitted by the PPA with subsequent hydrogen purification. By utilizing the well-known high sorbate loading capacity of molecular sieve 13x, coupled with microwave dielectric heating phenomenon, MRSHP technology is employed as a regenerative filter for a contaminated hydrogen gas stream. By design, freshly regenerated molecular sieve 13x contained in the MRSHP will remove contaminants from the effluent of a 1-CM scale PPA for several hours prior to breakthrough. By reversing flow and pulling a relative vacuum the MRSHP prototype then uses 2.45 GHz microwave power, applied through a novel coaxial antenna array, to rapidly heat the sorbent bed and drive off the contaminants in a short duration vacuum/thermal contaminant desorption step. Finally, following rapid cooling via room temperature cold plates, the MRSHP is again ready to serve as a hydrogen filter.

Wheeler, Richard R., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Sorbent Structural Testing on Carbon Dioxide Removal Sorbents for Advanced Exploration Systems

Long term space missions require carbon dioxide removal systems that can function with minimal downtime required for maintenance, low power consumption and maximum efficiency for CO2 removal. A major component of such a system are the sorbents used for the CO2 and desiccant beds. Sorbents must not only have adequate CO2 and H2O removal properties, but they must have the mechanical strength to prevent structural breakdown due to pressure and temperature changes during operation and regeneration, as well as resistance to breakdown due to moisture in the system from cabin air. As part of the studies used to select future CO2 sorbent materials, mechanical tests are performed on various zeolite sorbents to determine mechanical performance while dry and at various humidified states. Tests include single pellet crush, bulk crush and attrition tests. We have established a protocol for testing sorbents under dry and humid conditions, and previously tested the sorbents used on the International Space Station carbon dioxide removal assembly. This paper reports on the testing of a series of commercial sorbents considered as candidates for use on future exploration missions.

Watson, David↗
NASA NTRS2016

Hydrogen Purification and Recycling for an Integrated Oxygen Recovery System Architecture

The United States Atmosphere Revitalization life support system on the International Space Station (ISS) performs several services for the crew including oxygen generation, trace contaminant control, carbon dioxide (CO2) removal, and oxygen recovery. Oxygen recovery is performed using a Sabatier reactor developed by Hamilton Sundstrand, wherein CO2 is reduced with hydrogen in a catalytic reactor to produce methane and water. The water product is purified in the Water Purification Assembly and recycled to the Oxygen Generation Assembly (OGA) to provide O2 to the crew. This architecture results in a theoretical maximum oxygen recovery from CO2 of approx.54% due to the loss of reactant hydrogen in Sabatier-produced methane that is currently vented outside of ISS. Plasma Pyrolysis Assembly (PPA) technology, developed by Umpqua Research Company, provides the capability to further close the Atmosphere Revitalization oxygen loop by recovering hydrogen from Sabatier-produced methane. A key aspect of this technology approach is the need to purify the hydrogen from the PPA product stream which includes acetylene, unreacted methane and byproduct water and carbon monoxide. In 2015, four sub-scale hydrogen separation systems were delivered to NASA for evaluation. These included two electrolysis single-cell hydrogen purification cell stacks developed by Sustainable Innovations, LLC, a sorbent-based hydrogen purification unit using microwave power for sorbent regeneration developed by Umpqua Research Company, and a LaNi4.6Sn0.4 metal hydride produced by Hydrogen Consultants, Inc. Here we report the results of these evaluations to-date, discuss potential architecture options, and propose future work.

Abney, Morgan B.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Hydrogen Purification and Recycling for an Integrated Oxygen Recovery System Architecture

The United States Atmosphere Revitalization life support system on the International Space Station (ISS) performs several services for the crew including oxygen generation, trace contaminant control, carbon dioxide (CO2) removal, and oxygen recovery. Oxygen recovery is performed using a Sabatier reactor developed by Hamilton Sundstrand, wherein CO2 is reduced with hydrogen in a catalytic reactor to produce methane and water. The water product is purified in the Water Purification Assembly and recycled to the Oxygen Generation Assembly (OGA) to provide O2 to the crew. This architecture results in a theoretical maximum oxygen recovery from CO2 of approximately 54% due to the loss of reactant hydrogen in Sabatier-produced methane that is currently vented outside of ISS. Plasma Methane Pyrolysis technology (PPA), developed by Umpqua Research Company, provides the capability to further close the Atmosphere Revitalization oxygen loop by recovering hydrogen from Sabatier-produced methane. A key aspect of this technology approach is to purify the hydrogen from the PPA product stream which includes acetylene, unreacted methane and byproduct water and carbon monoxide. In 2015, four sub-scale hydrogen separation systems were delivered to NASA for evaluation. These included two electrolysis single-cell hydrogen purification cell stacks developed by Sustainable Innovations, LLC, a sorbent-based hydrogen purification unit using microwave power for sorbent regeneration developed by Umpqua Research Company, and a LaNi4.6Sn0.4 metal hydride produced by Hydrogen Consultants, Inc. Here we report the results of these evaluations, discuss potential architecture options, and propose future work.

Abney, Morgan B.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Investigation of Desiccants and CO2 Sorbents for Advanced Exploration Systems 2015-2016

Design of advanced carbon dioxide removal systems begins with the study of sorbents. Specifically, new CO2 sorbents and desiccants need to be studied to enable greater productivity from existing and future spaceflight systems. This presentation will discuss the studies used as input for selecting future CO2 sorbent materials. Also, the adjoining issues of understanding the effects of water co-adsorption and material selection for desiccant beds will be discussed. Current sorbents for CO2 removal are based on 5A zeolites, but a transition to sorbents derived from 13X will be necessary as CO2 levels in cabin air become leaner. Unfortunately, these 13X zeolites are more susceptible to long-term performance loss due to water co-adsorption than 5A due at achievable regeneration temperatures. A study on how impactful the presence of trace water will be to the cyclic operation of small-scale beds will be discussed. Also, methods to recover the performance of beds in a space environment after a major moisture adsorption event will be discussed. The information obtained from the water co-adsorption studies will play a major part in selecting a CO2 sorbent for advanced removal systems. Pellet structural properties play another major role in the selection process. One factor for long-term, hands-off operation of a system is pellet integrity. Maintaining integrity means preventing pellet fracture and the generation of fines due to various thermal and mechanical means which would eventually clog filters or damage downstream systems. Either of these problems require significant shutdowns and maintenance operations and must be avoided. Therefore, study of high-integrity pellets and design of new pellets will be discussed.

Knox, James C.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Numerical Simulation of HIWC Conditions with the Terminal Area Simulation System

Three-dimensional, numerical simulation of a mesoconvective system is conducted in order to better understand conditions associated with High Ice Water Content (HIWC) and its threat to aviation safety. Although peak local values of ice water content may occur early in the storm lifetime, large areas of high concentrations expand with time and persist even when the storm tops begin to warm. The storm canopy which contains HIWC, has low radar reflectivity factor and is fed by an ensemble of regenerating thermal pulses.

Proctor, Fred H.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Characterizing GEO Titan Transtage Fragmentations using Ground-based Measurements

In a continued effort to better characterize the Geosynchronous Orbit (GEO) environment, NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) utilizes various ground-based optical assets to acquire photometric and spectral data of known debris associated with fragmentations in or near GEO. The Titan IIIC Transtage upper stage is known to have fragmented four times. Two of the four fragmentations were in GEO while a third Transtage fragmented in GEO transfer orbit. The forth fragmentation occurred in Low Earth Orbit. In order to better assess what may be causing these fragmentations, the NASA ODPO recently acquired a Titan Transtage test and display article that was previously in the custody of the 309th Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Group (AMARG) in Tucson, Arizona. After initial inspections at AMARG demonstrated that the test article was of sufficient fidelity to be of interest, the test article was brought to JSC to continue material analysis and historical documentation of the Titan Transtage. The Transtage will be a subject of forensic analysis using spectral measurements to compare with telescopic data; as well, a scale model will be created to use in the Optical Measurement Center for photometric analysis of an intact Transtage, including a BRDF. The following presentation will provide a review of the Titan Transtage, the current analysis that has been done to date, and the future work to be completed in support of characterizing the GEO and near GEO orbital debris environment.

Cowardin, H.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Protective Effect of Pyruvate Against Radiation-Induced Damage in Collagenized Tissues

Exposure to high doses of ionizing radiation produces both acute and late effects on the collagenized tissues and have profound effects on wound healing. Because of the crucial practical importance for new radioprotective agents, our study has been focused on evaluation of the efficacy of non-toxic naturally occurring compounds to protect tissue integrity against high-dose gamma radiation. Here, we demonstrate that molecular integrity of collagen may serve as a sensitive biological marker for quantitative evaluation of molecular damage to collagenized tissue and efficacy of radioprotective agents. Increasing doses of gamma radiation (0-50kGy) result in progressive destruction of the native collagen fibrils, which provide a structural framework, strength, and proper milieu for the regenerating tissue. The strategy used in this study involved the thermodynamic specification of all structural changes in collagenized matrix of skin, aortic heart valve, and bone tissue induced by different doses and conditions of g-irradiation. This study describes a simple biophysical approach utilizing the Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) to characterize the structural resistance of the aortic valve matrix exposed to different doses of g-irradiation. It allows us to identify the specific response of each constituent as well as to determine the influence of the different treatments on the characteristic parameters of protein structure. We found that pyruvate, a substance that naturally occurs in the body, provide significant protection (up to 80%) from biochemical and biomechanical damage to the collagenized tissue through the effective targeting of reactive oxygen species. The recently discovered role of pyruvate in the cell antioxidant defense to O2 oxidation, and its essential constituency in the daily human diet, indicate that the administration of pyruvate-based radioprotective formulations may provide safe and effective protection from deleterious effects of ionizing radiation.

Differential Scanning Calorimetry↗
NASA NTRS2016

Investigation of Desiccants and CO2 Sorbents for Advanced Exploration Systems 2015-2016

Advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) design is critical for human space flight beyond Earth. Current systems enable extended missions in low-Earth orbit, but for deep-space missions, not only will astronauts be outside the reach of resupply operations from Earth but they will also need to handle malfunctions and compensate for the degradation of materials. These two daunting challenges must be overcome for long-term independent space flight. In order to solve the first, separation and reuse of onboard atmosphere components is required. Current systems utilize space vacuum to fully regenerate adsorbent beds, but this is not sustainable thus necessitating a closed-loop system. The second challenge stems from material and performance degradation due to operational cycling and on-board contaminants. This report will review the recent work by the ECLSS team at Marshall Space Flight Center towards overcoming these challenges by characterizing materials via novel methods for use in future systems.

Cmarik, Gregory E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata)) were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (18 deg to 25 deg), convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width (TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies) have a high impact on current TRW (r = 0.60 to 0.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest- steppe) and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

conifer mortality↗
NASA NTRS2016

Reliability and Maintainability Analysis for the Amine Swingbed Carbon Dioxide Removal System

I have performed a reliability & maintainability analysis for the Amine Swingbed payload system. The Amine Swingbed is a carbon dioxide removal technology that has gone through 2,400 hours of International Space Station on-orbit use between 2013 and 2016. While the Amine Swingbed is currently an experimental payload system, the Amine Swingbed may be converted to system hardware. If the Amine Swingbed becomes system hardware, it will supplement the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) as the primary CO2 removal technology on the International Space Station. NASA is also considering using the Amine Swingbed as the primary carbon dioxide removal technology for future extravehicular mobility units and for the Orion, which will be used for the Asteroid Redirect and Journey to Mars missions. The qualitative component of the reliability and maintainability analysis is a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA). In the FMEA, I have investigated how individual components in the Amine Swingbed may fail, and what the worst case scenario is should a failure occur. The significant failure effects are the loss of ability to remove carbon dioxide, the formation of ammonia due to chemical degradation of the amine, and loss of atmosphere because the Amine Swingbed uses the vacuum of space to regenerate the Amine Swingbed. In the quantitative component of the reliability and maintainability analysis, I have assumed a constant failure rate for both electronic and nonelectronic parts. Using this data, I have created a Poisson distribution to predict the failure rate of the Amine Swingbed as a whole. I have determined a mean time to failure for the Amine Swingbed to be approximately 1,400 hours. The observed mean time to failure for the system is between 600 and 1,200 hours. This range includes initial testing of the Amine Swingbed, as well as software faults that are understood to be non-critical. If many of the commercial parts were switched to military-grade parts, the expected mean time to failure would be 2,300 hours. Both calculated mean times to failure for the Amine Swingbed use conservative failure rate models. The observed mean time to failure for CDRA is 2,500 hours. Working on this project and for NASA in general has helped me gain insight into current aeronautics missions, reliability engineering, circuit analysis, and different cultures. Prior my internship, I did not have a lot knowledge about the work being performed at NASA. As a chemical engineer, I had not really considered working for NASA as a career path. By engaging in interactions with civil servants, contractors, and other interns, I have learned a great deal about modern challenges that NASA is addressing. My work has helped me develop a knowledge base in safety and reliability that would be difficult to find elsewhere. Prior to this internship, I had not thought about reliability engineering. Now, I have gained a skillset in performing reliability analyses, and understanding the inner workings of a large mechanical system. I have also gained experience in understanding how electrical systems work while I was analyzing the electrical components of the Amine Swingbed. I did not expect to be exposed to as many different cultures as I have while working at NASA. I am referring to both within NASA and the Houston area. NASA employs individuals with a broad range of backgrounds. It has been great to learn from individuals who have highly diverse experiences and outlooks on the world. In the Houston area, I have come across individuals from different parts of the world. Interacting with such a high number of individuals with significantly different backgrounds has helped me to grow as a person in ways that I did not expect. My time at NASA has opened a window into the field of aeronautics. After earning a bachelor's degree in chemical engineering, I plan to go to graduate school for a PhD in engineering. Prior to coming to NASA, I was not aware of the graduate Pathways program. I intend to apply for the graduate Pathways program as positions are opened up. I would like to pursue future opportunities with NASA, especially as my engineering career progresses.

Dunbar, Tyler↗
NASA NTRS2016

Overview of Proposed ISRU Technology Development

ISRU involves any hardware or operation that harnesses and utilizes in-situ resources (natural and discarded) to create products and services for robotic and human exploration: Assessment of physical, mineral chemical, and volatile water resources, terrain, geology, and environment (orbital and local). Production of replacement parts, complex products, machines, and integrated systems from feedstock derived from one or more processed resources. Civil engineering, infrastructure emplacement, and structure construction using materials produced from in situ resources. Radiation shields, landing pads, roads, berms, habitats, etc. Generation and storage of electrical, thermal, and chemical energy with in situ derived materials. Solar arrays, thermal wadis, chemical batteries, etc. ISRU is a disruptive capability: Enables more affordable exploration than todays paradigm. Allows more sustainable architectures to be developed. Understand the ripple effect in the other Exploration Elements: MAV: propellant selection, higher rendezvous altitude (higher DV capable with ISRU propellants). EDL: significantly reduces required landed mass. Life Support: reduce amount of ECLSS closure, reduce trash mass carried through propulsive maneuvers. Power: ISRU drives electrical requirements, reactant and regeneration for fuel cells for landers, rovers, and habitat backup. Every Exploration Element except ISRU has some flight heritage (power, propulsion, habitats, landers, life support, etc.) ISRU will require a flight demonstration mission on Mars before it will be included in the critical path. Mission needs to be concluded at least 10 years before first human landed mission to ensure lessons learned can be incorporated into final design. ISRU Formulation team has generated a (still incomplete) list of over 75 technical questions on more than 40 components and subsystems that need to be answered before the right ISRU system will be ready for this flight demo.

Mars exploration↗
NASA NTRS2017

Regenerative Gas Dryer for In-Situ Propellant Production

Rocket propellant can be produced anywhere that water is found by splitting it into hydrogen and oxygen, potentially saving several tons of mass per mission and enabling the long term presence of humans in space beyond LEO. When water is split into hydrogen and oxygen, the gaseous products can be very humid (several thousand ppm). Propellant-grade gases need to be extremely dry before being converted into cryogenic liquids (less than 26 ppm water for grade B Oxygen). The primary objective of this project is to design, build and test a regenerative gas drying system that can take humid gas from a water electrolysis system and provide dry gas (less than 26ppm water) to the inlet of a liquefaction system for long durations. State of the art work in this area attempted to use vacuum as a means to regenerate desiccant, but it was observed that water would migrate to the dry zone without a sweep gas present to direct the desorbed vapor. Further work attempted to use CO2 as a sweep gas, but this resulted in a corrosive carbonic acid. In order for in-situ propellant production to work, we need a way to continuously dry humid gas that addresses these issues.

Paz, Aaron↗
NASA NTRS2017

Characterizing GEO Titan IIIC Transtage Fragmentations Using Ground-Based and Telescopic Measurements

In a continued effort to better characterize the Geosynchronous Orbit (GEO) environment, NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) utilizes various ground-based optical assets to acquire photometric and spectral data of known debris associated with fragmentations in or near GEO. The Titan IIIC Transtage upper stage is known to have fragmented four times. Two of the four fragmentations were in GEO while a third Transtage fragmented in GEO transfer orbit. The forth fragmentation occurred in Low Earth Orbit. In order to better assess and characterize these fragmentations, the NASA ODPO acquired a Titan Transtage test and display article previously in the custody of the 309th Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Group (AMARG) in Tucson, Arizona. After initial inspections at AMARG demonstrated that the test article was of sufficient fidelity to be of interest, the test article was brought to JSC to continue material analysis and historical documentation of the Titan Transtage. The Transtage has been subject to two separate spectral measurement campaigns to characterize the reflectance spectroscopy of historical aerospace materials. These data have been incorporated into the NASA Spectral Database, the goal being to enable comparison with telescopic data and potential material identification. A LIDAR scan has been completed and a scale model has been created for use in the Optical Measurement Center for photometric analysis of an intact Transtage, including a BRDF. An historical overview of the Titan IIIC Transtage, the current analysis that has been done to date, and the future work to be completed in support of characterizing the GEO and near GEO orbital debris environment will be discussed in the subsequent presentation.

Cowardin, H.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata))were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (1825),convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width(TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies)have a high impact on current TRW (r 0.600.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest steppe)and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.↗