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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,117 records · Page 62
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1985

A detailed analysis of the erythropoietic control system in the human, squirrel, monkey, rat and mouse

The erythropoiesis modeling performed in support of the Body Fluid and Blood Volume Regulation tasks is described. The mathematical formulation of the species independent model, the solutions to the steady state and dynamic versions of the model, and the individual species specific models for the human, squirrel monkey, rat and mouse are outlined. A detailed sensitivity analysis of the species independent model response to parameter changes and how those responses change from species to species is presented. The species to species response to a series of simulated stresses directly related to blood volume regulation during space flight is analyzed.

Nordheim, A. W.↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Comparison of Land Surface Model Soil Hydraulic Properties Estimated by Inverse Modeling and Pedotransfer Functions

Soil hydraulic properties (SHPs) regulate the movement of water in the soil. This in turn plays an important role in the water and energy cycles at the land surface. At present, SHPS are commonly defined by a simple pedotransfer function from soil texture class, but SHPs vary more within a texture class than between classes. To examine the impact of using soil texture class to predict SHPS, we run the Noah land surface model for a wide variety of measured SHPs. We find that across a range of vegetation cover (5 - 80% cover) and climates (250 - 900 mm mean annual precipitation), soil texture class only explains 5% of the variance expected from the real distribution of SHPs. We then show that modifying SHPs can drastically improve model performance. We compare two methods of estimating SHPs: (1) inverse method, and (2) soil texture class. Compared to texture class, inverse modeling reduces errors between measured and modeled latent heat flux from 88 to 28 w/m(exp 2). Additionally we find that with increasing vegetation cover the importance of SHPs decreases and that the van Genuchten m parameter becomes less important, while the saturated conductivity becomes more important.

Gutmann, Ethan D.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Representations of the Stratospheric Polar Vortices in Versions 1 and 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM)

This study will document the behavior of the polar vortices in two versions of the GEOS CCM. Both versions of the model include the same stratospheric chemistry, They differ in the underlying circulation model. Version 1 of the GEOS CCM is based on the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 4, general circulation model which includes the finite-volume (Lin-Rood) dynamical core and physical parameterizations from Community Climate Model, Version 3. GEOS CCM Version 2 is based on the GEOS-5 GCM that includes a different tropospheric physics package. Baseline simulations of both models, performed at two-degree spatial resolution, show some improvements in Version 2, but also some degradation, In the Antarctic, both models show an over-persistent stratospheric polar vortex with late breakdown, but the year-to-year variations that are overestimated in Version I are more realistic in Version 2. The implications of this for the interactions with tropospheric climate, the Southern Annular Mode, will be discussed. In the Arctic both model versions show a dominant dynamically forced variabi;ity, but Version 2 has a persistent warm bias in the low stratosphere and there are seasonal differences in the simulations. These differences will be quantified in terms of climate change and ozone loss. Impacts of model resolution, using simulations at one-degree and half-degree, and changes in physical parameterizations (especially the gravity wave drag) will be discussed.

Pawson, S.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Near-Nadiral Normalized Radar Cross Section of the SEA Surface at Ku, Ka, and W-Bands: Comparison of Measurements and Models

Understanding the relationship between wind speed and direction and the near-nadiral normalized radar cross section (NRCS) of the sea surface is important in many oceanographic and atmospheric remote sensing applications: (1) wind speed retrievals in traditional altimeter systems (2) assistance in calibration and path integrated attenuation processing for atmospheric profiling radars The desired wind speed (and direction in some cases) retrieval requires a clear understanding of the relationship between the relevant geophysical quantities and the observed NRCS Such understanding is available from existing electromagnetic models, but the presence of many such models, as well as implicit descriptions of the sea surface, motivates continued evaluation of model performance.

CloudSat↗
NASA NTRS2016

Evaluating Secondary Inorganic Aerosols in Three Dimensions

The spatial distribution of aerosols and their chemical composition dictates whether aerosols have a cooling or a warming effect on the climate system. Hence, properly modeling the three-dimensional distribution of aerosols is a crucial step for coherent climate simulations. Since surface measurement networks only give 2-D data, and most satellites supply integrated column information, it is thus important to integrate aircraft measurements in climate model evaluations. In this study, the vertical distribution of secondary inorganic aerosol (i.e., sulfate, ammonium, and nitrate) is evaluated against a collection of 14 AMS flight campaigns and surface measurements from 2000 to 2010 in the USA and Europe. GISS ModelE2 is used with multiple aerosol microphysics (MATRIX, OMA) and thermodynamic (ISORROPIA II, EQSAM) configurations. Our results show that the MATRIX microphysical scheme improves the model performance for sulfate, but that there is a systematic underestimation of ammonium and nitrate over the USA and Europe in all model configurations. In terms of gaseous precursors, nitric acid concentrations are largely underestimated at the surface while overestimated in the higher levels of the model. Heterogeneous reactions on dust surfaces are an important sink for nitric acid, even high in the troposphere. At high altitudes, nitrate formation is calculated to be ammonia limited. The underestimation of ammonium and nitrate in polluted regions is most likely caused by a too simplified treatment of the NH3/NH4(+) partitioning which affects the HNO3/NO3(-) partitioning.

aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2017

Reduced ENSO Variability at the LGM Revealed by an Isotope-Enabled Earth System Model

Studying the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the past can help us better understand its dynamics and improve its future projections. However, both paleoclimate reconstructions and model simulations of ENSO strength at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka B.P.) have led to contradicting results. Here we perform model simulations using the recently developed water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM). For the first time, model-simulated oxygen isotopes are directly compared with those from ENSO reconstructions using the individual foraminifera analysis (IFA). We find that the LGM ENSO is most likely weaker comparing with the preindustrial. The iCESM suggests that total variance of the IFA records may only reflect changes in the annual cycle instead of ENSO variability as previously assumed. Furthermore, the interpretation of subsurface IFA records can be substantially complicated by the habitat depth of thermocline-dwelling foraminifera and their vertical migration with a temporally varying thermocline.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation;isotope-enabled si↗
NASA NTRS2018

Comparisons of Two Spatial Implementations of a Crop Model Using Remotely Sensed Observations over Southeastern United States

Global food security is one of the most pressing issues of the current century, particularly for developing nations. Agricultural simulation models can be a key component in testing new technologies, seeds and cultivars etc. However, inaccurate input information, model related errors and the mode of implementation can also add to model uncertainties. In this study, the crop model is implemented in two separate fashions: a)gridded (GriDSSAT model) and b) using random spatial ensembles (RHEAS model). This is done in the Southeastern US to evaluate and understand the modelperformance over a region data availabilities. Once the model performance is assessed, multiple satellite based earth observation parameters such as soil moisture, vegetation index etc. can be assimilated into crop models to reduce input and model related uncertainties particularly in data limited regions. In this study, the National Agricultural Statistical Services (NASS) reported yield data at county levels are used for comparison andvalidation purposes. The GriDSSAT model estimation of corn yields in comparison with the reported NASS yields showed an overall RMSD of nearly 3720 (kg/ha) whereas RMSD for the RHEAS model implementation was 3550 (kg/ha). Overall the GriDSSAT model had negative bias of nearly 2400 kg/ha (except for 2013) while RHEAS had a slight positive bias of 400 kg/ha (approx.).

SERVIR↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Air Traffic Management Initiatives Using Supervised Learning

Terminal Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) such as Ground Stops (GS) and Ground Delay Programs (GDP) are implemented to manage excess demand or lowered capacity at an airport. Air Traffic Flow Management (TFM) specialists identify situations such as aviation constraints, current and forecasted weather conditions, airport demand and capacity, and initiate TMIs for safe and orderly movement of air traffic. In this paper, we outline supervised learning techniques that can be used to predict and recommend TMIs at an airport based on current weather and airport conditions. Our research involves building classic Machine Learning (ML) models such as Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest and XGBoost, as well as Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. We trained the models on 3-year historical data (weather, airport demand, capacity and TMIs) from Newark (EWR) airport which was selected based on its higher TMI implementation rates and varied weather conditions. Although Random Forest and XGBoost algorithms are able to predict if a TMI is needed or not, they have difficulty in predicting specific program type. For this purpose, we found that LSTM time-series forecasting models performed better as they also learn from past TMI program type sequences. This study also lays down the foundation for advanced modeling techniques and architectures to predict TMIs in advance for future periods. The ability to predict TMIs in advance will be highly beneficial to the traffic controllers and managers as this will help them to prepare for and manage TMIs more efficiently.

Manoj Agrawal↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automated Shift Detection in Sensor-Based PV Power and Irradiance Time Series

PV power and irradiance sensor-based measurements are prone to error, resulting in issues such as time series data shifts. In this research, a changepoint detection (CPD) algorithm that automatically detects data shifts in sensor-based time series is introduced. Data shift periods in 101 daily PV power and irradiance time series were labeled manually by two solar experts. These data streams represent sensor-based measurements, and display a variety of data shift behaviors. A changepoint detection algorithm was tuned using the 101 labeled data streams, with each model configuration's ability to detect labeled changepoints benchmarked using metrics such as F1-score, recall, and Rand Index. Best performing models on seasonality-corrected data streams include the Pruned Exact Linear (PELT) method, the Binary Segmentation method, and the Bottom-Up method, all scoring an average F1-score of 0.76 or greater at detecting labeled changepoints within a 30-day window across the labeled data sets. Pending approval, we plan to release the labeled data sets for this research on NREL's DuraMAT Data Hub, and the associated algorithm in the Python PVAnalytics package. By supplying the training sets and algorithm, we hope to encourage further development in this research space.

data shift↗
DOE OSTI2025

Large-scale tearing-mode hazard function analysis with standard matched equilibrium reconstructions

The association between features from standard tokamak equilibrium reconstructions and the onset of n = 1 tearing modes (TMs) is analyzed at scale. The TM onset rate is directly modeled with a ‘hazard’ function which gives the expected number of onsets (per unit time spent) in a given equilibrium parameter region. In particular the different statistical modeling performance achieved for magnetics-only reconstructions and motional Stark effect (MSE) enhanced reconstructions is studied. It is observed that a better hazard model for the TM onset rate can be built with the MSE-enhanced equilibria compared to the matched magnetics-only situation. This advantage disappears if internal profile details are withheld from the matched analysis. Plausibility of the hazard function is further demonstrated with visualizations of global trends in the operational space, and time-traces from specific tokamak discharges. As a result, TMs typically degrade tokamak plasma performance and may lead to plasma termination, motivating this statistical study.

equilibrium↗
DOE OSTI2021

Oilwell Conversion (Well API 121913310501) to Geothermal Heat Storage Well for Flexible Electricity Storage

Geothermal growth is limited by a lack of geographically dispersed high-temperature thermal resources and high initial upfront investment in characterization and well construction. This project intended to address the challenges of energy supply intermittency and enhance grid resilience, reliability, and energy security by storing energy provided from currently available renewable resources in the subsurface to harvest it a later time during at-peak energy demand. This project intended to improve geothermal adoption, reduce initial project risk, and improve price competitiveness through utilizing existing oil and gas infrastructure such as non-productive wells, non-economic fields, dry holes, and orphaned wells. The project also intended to address the lack of geographically dispersed thermal resources and enhance grid resilience, reliability, and energy security by introducing an economical method for storing energy from currently available renewable resources in the subsurface for usage during at-peak energy demand. During this research, the project furthered the understanding of the feasibility of utilizing abandoned oil and gas wells as geothermal heat storage wells. The project team investigated the heat storage and hydrogeological characteristics of subsurface reservoirs in the Illinois Basin to evaluate their response to heat injection for determining the evolution of temperature profiles and heat losses over time using existing and available data sets. The project team then performed modeling and simulation to evaluate the heat losses of returning fluids during heat extraction. The outputs were used to select an optimal candidate reservoir and location in Southern Illinois. The team designed and performed a small-scale field test in an existing oil well to refine the model and to demonstrate the permitting and regulatory pathways necessary for the conversion of oil and gas assets to geothermal use. The field test also serves as a proof of concept and can guide the procedures for future research and implementation. Additionally, the project team, conducted initial market research and customer discovery to develop a go to market strategy for an Advanced Geothermal Energy Storage (AGES) system. The project team in this research also identified the parameters to be refined in future research, to improve the current go to market strategy economic model. To this end several subject matter experts were also identified to assist in future research with geothermal infrastructure setup, energy storage policy and law, energy storage market demand, potential siting based on demand etc. Future research will involve further sophistication of the site commercial modeling, implementing a larger-scale test, and further refinement of the thermodynamic modeling/simulation process. The output will be lifecycle costs and economics suitable for comparison to alternative approaches from a validated full-scale demonstration for venture capital investment into this technology. The project successfully demonstrated the ability to leverage existing oilfield infrastructure, permits, and land access and leasing agreements, to enable geothermal storage projects to come online faster and cheaper than a greenfield development could. This technology could allow for greater energy independence and security through long-term energy storage solutions. The longer duration allows for greater storage for renewables currently limited by hours-long storage durations of lithium-ion. The AGES system would support the growth of renewable energy farms, and provide greater opportunities for a cleaner energy infrastructure.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning for Mapping Multipactor Susceptibility in RF Systems: Capabilities and Generalization Constraints

Multipactor is a surface-driven electron avalanche phenomenon that degrades the performance and reliability of radio-frequency (RF) systems in particle accelerator and vacuum electronics applications. Multipactor behavior in a given device structure is conventionally assessed through susceptibility charts, which provide a parameter-space characterization of the instability. In this work, we assess the capabilities of machine-learning (ML) models to learn and predict such susceptibility charts and analyze the constraints governing their generalization across materials. Using a simulation-derived dataset spanning six distinct secondary-electron-yield material profiles in a canonical two-surface planar geometry, we train supervised regression models and artificial neural networks to predict the time-averaged electron growth rate, δavg, across the relevant parameter space. Model performance is evaluated using metrics that explicitly probe the structure of susceptibility charts, including Intersection over Union, Structural Similarity Index, and correlation analysis. Tree-based ensemble models outperform neural-network models in reconstructing susceptibility regions and in generalizing across material domains. Principal-component analysis reveals disjoint material feature distributions, indicating that the piecewise mode structure of multipactor susceptibility is difficult to represent with a single global model and that generalization is constrained by data coverage rather than by model complexity. An exhaustive reduced-coverage study further shows that sparse material-space coverage can yield mean performance in the same general range but producing large variability in the susceptibility-region overlap. These results clarify the capabilities of ML-based surrogate models for parameter-space characterization of multipactor discharge. They also provide guidance for their appropriate use in RF system design.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Overview of interpretive modelling of fusion performance in JET DTE2 discharges with TRANSP

In the paper we present an overview of interpretive modelling of a database of JET-ILW 2021 D-T discharges using the TRANSP code. The main aim is to assess our capability of computationally reproducing the fusion performance of various D-T plasma scenarios using different external heating and D-T mixtures, and to understand the performance driving mechanisms. We find that interpretive simulations confirm a general power-law relationship between increasing external heating power and fusion output, which is supported by absolutely calibrated neutron yield measurements. A comparison of measured and computed D-T neutron rates shows that the calculations' discrepancy depends on the absolute neutron yield. The calculations are found to agree well with measurements for higher performing discharges with external heating power above ~20 MW, while low-neutron shots display an average discrepancy of around +40% compared to measured neutron yields. A similar trend is found for the ratio between thermal and beam-target fusion, where larger discrepancies are seen in shots with dominant beam-driven performance. We compare the observations to studies of JET-ILW D discharges, to find that on average the fusion performance is well modelled over a range of heating power, although an increased unsystematic deviation for lower-performing shots is observed. The ratio between thermal and beam-induced D-T fusion is found to be increasing weakly with growing external heating power, with a maximum value of ≳1 achieved in a baseline scenario experiment. An evaluation of the fusion power computational uncertainty shows a strong dependence on the plasma scenario type and fusion drive characteristics, varying between ±25% and 35%. D-T fusion alpha simulations show that the ratio between volume-integrated electron and ion heating from alphas is ≲10 for the majority of analysed discharges. Alphas are computed to contribute between ~15% and 40% to the total electron heating in the core of highest performing D-T discharges. An alternative workflow to TRANSP was employed to model JET D-T plasmas with the highest fusion yield and dominant non-thermal fusion component because of the use of fundamental radio-frequency heating of a large minority in the scenario, which is calculated to have provided ~10% to the total fusion power.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Phase-field simulations of intergranular fission gas bubble behavior in U 3 Si 2 nuclear fuel

U 3 Si 2 is a potential accident-tolerant fuel that shows promise due to its high thermal conductivity and higher uranium density relative to UO 2 . However, its swelling and fission gas release behavior in light water reactor (LWR) conditions is relatively unknown. To provide mechanistic insight and determine parameters for engineering-scale fuel performance modeling of pellet-form U 3 Si 2 , phase-field simulations of the growth, interconnection, and venting of intergranular fission gas bubbles were performed. The fractional coverage of the grain boundary and the fraction of bubble area that is vented were calculated as a function of time. From the simulation data, the fractional grain boundary coverage at saturation, an important parameter needed in engineering-scale modeling of swelling and fission gas release, was determined. Multiple simulations were run to determine the uncertainty in the calculated value. Finally, the effect of model assumptions and input parameters that are not well known was evaluated. Simulation results are compared to related theoretical and computational work. Based on the simulation results, a value of 0.60 for the fractional grain boundary coverage at saturation is recommended for U 3 Si 2 fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1995

A Multiple Agent Model of Human Performance in Automated Air Traffic Control and Flight Management Operations

A predictive model of human operator performance (flight crew and air traffic control (ATC)) has been developed and applied in order to evaluate the impact of automation developments in flight management and air traffic control. The model is used to predict the performance of a two person flight crew and the ATC operators generating and responding to clearances aided by the Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS). The purpose of the modeling is to support evaluation and design of automated aids for flight management and airspace management and to predict required changes in procedure both air and ground in response to advancing automation in both domains. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Corker, Kevin↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying schools at high-risk for elevated lead in drinking water using only publicly available data

Estimating the risk of lead contamination of schools' drinking water at the State level is a complex, important, and unexplored challenge. Variable water quality among water systems and changes in water chemistry during distribution affect lead dissolution rates from pipes and fittings. In addition, the locations of lead-bearing plumbing materials are uncertain. We tested the capability of six machine learning models to predict the likelihood of lead contamination of drinking water at the schools' taps using only publicly available datasets. The predictive features used in the models correspond to those with a proven correlation to the dominant, but commonly unavailable, factors that govern lead leaching: the presence of lead-bearing plumbing materials and water quality conducive to lead corrosion. By combining water chemistry data from public reports, socioeconomic information from the US census, and spatial features using Geographic Information Systems, we trained and tested models to estimate the likelihood of lead contaminated tap water in over 8,000 schools across California and Massachusetts. Our best-performing model was a Random Forest, with a 10-fold cross validation score of 0.88 for Massachusetts and 0.78 for California using the average Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC AUC) metric. The model was then used to assign a lead leaching risk category to half of the schools across California (the other half was used for training). There was good agreement between the modeled risk categories and the actual lead leaching outcomes for every school; however, the model overestimated the lead leaching risk in up to 17% of the schools. This model is the first of its kind to offer a tool to predict the risk of lead leaching in schools at the State level. Further use of this model can help deploy limited resources more effectively to prevent childhood lead exposure from school drinking water.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automated defect identification in electroluminescence images of solar modules

Solar photovoltaic (PV) modules are susceptible to manufacturing defects, mishandling problems or extreme weather events that can limit energy production or cause early device failure. Trained professionals use electroluminescence (EL) images to identify defects in modules, however, field surveys or inline image acquisition can generate millions of EL images, which are infeasible to analyze by rote inspection. Here, we develop a rapid automatic computer vision pipeline (~0.5 seconds/module) to analyze EL images and identify defects including cracks, intra-cell defects, oxygen-induced defects, and solder disconnections. Defect identification is achieved with a machine learning model (Random Forest, ResNet models and YOLO) trained on 762 manually-labeled EL images of PV modules. We compare model performance on an imbalanced real-world validation set containing 134 EL images and determine that ResNet18 and YOLO are the optimal models; we next evaluated these models on a dedicated testing set (129 module images) with resulting macro F1 scores of 0.83 (ResNet18) and 0.78 (YOLO). Using a field EL survey of a PV power plant damaged in a vegetation fire, we analyze 18,954 EL images (2.4 million cells) and inspect the spatial distribution of defects on the solar modules. The results find increased frequency of ‘crack’, ‘solder’ and ‘intra-cell’ defects on the edges of the solar module closest to the ground after fire. We also find an abnormal increase of striation rings on cells which were assumed to be caused mainly in fabrication process. Our methods are published as open-source software. It can also be used to identify other kinds of defects or process different types of solar cells with minor modification on models by transfer learning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Irradiation Vehicles for Evaluating SiC/SiC Cladding Bowing Under Neutron Flux Gradients

Silicon carbide fiber–reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiC/SiC) composites are among the most promising candidates for long term accident-tolerant nuclear fuel cladding. A key challenge related to their deployment is lateral bowing caused by differential radiation-induced swelling under dose or temperature gradients, which could obstruct coolant flow or interfere with control rod/blade movements. Although previous modeling efforts have predicted bowing behavior in light-water reactor (LWR) environments, experimental validation remains limited, especially at prototypic LWR temperatures. This study addresses that gap by irradiating six reduced-length SiC/SiC cladding tubes (~600 mm) in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at ~300°C, which is representative of LWR conditions. The tubes will be housed in a sealed vessel with an inert gas gap to maintain target temperatures and prevent direct coolant contact. Arranged in three pairs, each set will receive a different radiation dose (low, medium, high), with the central pair receiving ~0.1 displacements per atom (dpa)—the expected dose for peak bowing. The experiment will determine the dose-dependent bowing behavior and validate predictive finite element models. In this work, the tubes are freely suspended from pins to allow for unconstrained bowing; however, we present a concept for introducing localized constraints to represent grid spacer effects. Post-irradiation examination will include swelling measurements and profilometry to assess bowing and compare the results with model predictions. This work aims to confirm the conditions under which maximum bowing occurs so as to improve the reliability of SiC/SiC performance models in nuclear applications.

Russell, Nick [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000296099820)↗