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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,117 records · Page 62

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NASA NTRS2008

Aircraft System Analysis of Technology Benefits to Civil Transport Rotorcraft

An aircraft systems analysis was conducted to evaluate the net benefits of advanced technologies on two conceptual civil transport rotorcraft, to quantify the potential of future civil rotorcraft to become operationally viable and economically competitive, with the ultimate goal of alleviating congestion in our airways, runways and terminals. These questions are three of many that must be resolved for the successful introduction of civil transport rotorcraft: 1) Can civil transport rotorcraft actually relieve current airport congestion and improve overall air traffic and passenger throughput at busy hub airports? What is that operational scenario? 2) Can advanced technology make future civil rotorcraft economically competitive in scheduled passenger transport? What are those enabling technologies? 3) What level of investment is necessary to mature the key enabling technologies? This study addresses the first two questions, and several others, by applying a systems analysis approach to a broad spectrum of potential advanced technologies at a conceptual level of design. The method was to identify those advanced technologies that showed the most promise and to quantify their benefits to the design, development, production, and operation of future civil rotorcraft. Adjustments are made to sizing data by subject matter experts to reflect the introduction of new technologies that offer improved performance, reduced weight, reduced maintenance, or reduced cost. This study used projected benefits from new, advanced technologies, generally based on research results, analysis, or small-scale test data. The technologies are identified, categorized and quantified in the report. The net benefit of selected advanced technologies is quantified for two civil transport rotorcraft concepts, a Single Main Rotor Compound (SMRC) helicopter designed for 250 ktas cruise airspeed and a Civil Tilt Rotor (CTR) designed for 350 ktas cruise airspeed. A baseline design of each concept was sized for a representative civil passenger transport mission, using current technology. Individual advanced technologies are quantified and applied to resize the aircraft, thereby quantifying the net benefit of that technology to the rotorcraft. Estimates of development cost, production cost and operating and support costs are made with a commercial cost estimating program, calibrated to Boeing products with adjustments for future civil production processes. A cost metric of cash direct operating cost per available seat-mile (DOC ASM) is used to compare the cost benefit of the technologies. The same metric is used to compare results with turboprop operating costs. Reduced engine SFC was the most advantageous advanced technology for both rotorcraft concepts. Structural weight reduction was the second most beneficial technology, followed by advanced drive systems and then by technology for rotorcraft performance. Most of the technologies evaluated in this report should apply similarly to conventional helicopters. The implicit assumption is that resources will become available to mature the technologies for fullscale production aircraft. That assumption is certainly the weak link in any forecast of future possibilities. The analysis serves the purpose of identifying which technologies offer the most potential benefit, and thus the ones that should receive the highest priority for continued development. This study directly addressed the following NASA Subsonic Rotary Wing (SRW) subtopics: SR W.4.8.I.J Establish capability for rotorcraft system analysis and SRW. 4.8.I.4 Conduct limited technology benefit assessment on baseline rotorcraft configurations.

Wilkerson, Joseph B.↗

NASA NTRS2011

High Impact Weather Forecasts and Warnings with the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) is the next series to follow the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. A major advancement over the current GOES include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). The GLM will operate continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. In parallel with the instrument development, a GOES-R Risk Reduction Science Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop cal/val performance monitoring tools and new applications using the GLM alone, in conjunction with other instruments, and merged or blended integrated observing system products combining satellite, radar, in-situ and numerical models. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional ground-based lightning networks are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms, test data sets, and applications, as well as improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. In this presentation we review the planned implementation of the instrument and suite of operational algorithms.

Goodman, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2011

High Impact Weather Forecasts and Warnings with the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)

Goodman, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Wind Information Uplink to Aircraft Performing Interval Management Operations

The accuracy of the wind information used to generate trajectories for aircraft performing Interval Management (IM) operations is critical to the success of an IM operation. There are two main forms of uncertainty in the wind information used by the Flight Deck Interval Management (FIM) equipment. The first is the accuracy of the forecast modeling done by the weather provider. The second is that only a small subset of the forecast data can be uplinked to the aircraft for use by the FIM equipment, resulting in loss of additional information. This study focuses on what subset of forecast data, such as the number and location of the points where the wind is sampled should be made available to uplink to the aircraft.

Ahmad, Nashat↗

NASA NTRS2016

Conflict Resolution for Wind-Optimal Aircraft Trajectories in North Atlantic Oceanic Airspace with Wind Uncertainties

Air traffic in the North Atlantic oceanic airspace (NAT) experiences very strong winds caused by jet streams. Flying wind-optimal trajectories increases individual flight efficiency, which is advantageous when operating in the NAT. However, as the NAT is highly congested during peak hours, a large number of potential conflicts between flights are detected for the sets of wind-optimal trajectories. Conflict resolution performed at the strategic level of flight planning can significantly reduce the airspace congestion. However, being completed far in advance, strategic planning can only use predicted environmental conditions that may significantly differ from the real conditions experienced further by aircraft. The forecast uncertainties result in uncertainties in conflict prediction, and thus, conflict resolution becomes less efficient. This work considers wind uncertainties in order to improve the robustness of conflict resolution in the NAT. First, the influence of wind uncertainties on conflict prediction is investigated. Then, conflict resolution methods accounting for wind uncertainties are proposed.

wind uncertainties↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Brillouin Asymmetric Spatial Heterodyne Oceanographic Lidar Receiver for Profiling Temperature, Salinity, and Sound Velocity

No sensor today is capable of remotely sensing temperature and salinity at depth in oceanic waters, yet the physics to do so exists. Blue-green light (450-550 nm) can penetrate 10’s of meters into the water and interacts with water by the Brillouin scatter process. Temperature and salinity can be determined by analyzing the spectrum of Brillouin scatter. A host of scientific and operational drivers exist for such a sensor, from improved hurricane and red tide forecasting to studies of ocean fronts, eddies, and freshwater lenses. A low flying airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) instrument concept that exploits this physics is presented, along with simulation tools that potential data users can use to model its measurement performance, determine suitability for their application, and assess its implications.

John Anthony Smith↗

DOE OSTI2024

Digital twin advanced distribution management systems (ADMS) and methods

Advanced Distribution Management Systems not generally optimize over the entire feeder because there are few high-fidelity distribution circuit models and real-time distribution-connected sensors are rare. The limited observability at the distribution level makes it difficult to globally optimize distribution operations and issue control setpoints to power systems equipment or Distributed Energy Resources (DER) to perform grid-support services. For example, setpoints can be issued to DER based on results from an optimization module that incorporates a static or time-series feeder simulation. Feeder simulation initial conditions are populated with photovoltaic (PV) and load forecasts, state estimation results, and/or digital twin measurements or state output. The real-time (RT) digital twin runs a model of the feeder to generate state estimation pseudo-measurements since there are limited live feeder measurements.

Johnson, Jay Tillay↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sizing ramping reserve using probabilistic solar forecasts: A data-driven method

Ramping products have been introduced or proposed in several U.S. power markets to mitigate the impact of load and renewable uncertainties on market efficiency and reliability. Current methods often rely on historical data to estimate the requirements of ramping products and fail to take into account the effects of the latest weather conditions and their uncertainties, which could lead to overly conservative or insufficient requirements. This study proposes a k-nearest-neighbor-based method to give weather-informed estimates of ramping needs based on short-term probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts. Forecasts from multiple sites are employed in conjunction with principal component analysis to derive numerical classifiers to characterize system-level weather conditions. In addition, we develop a data-driven method to optimize the model parameters in a rolling-forward manner. By using real-world data from the California Independent System Operator, we design two metrics to evaluate method performance: 1) frequency of shortage and 2) oversupply of ramping product. Our proposed method presents advantages in comparison with the baseline and a set of benchmark methods: without compromising system reliability, it reduces system ramping requirements by up to 25%, therefore improving both system reliability and economics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Meeting Global Health Needs via Infectious Disease Forecasting: Development of a Reliable Data-Driven Framework

Infectious diseases (IDs) have a significant detrimental impact on global health. Timely and accurate ID forecasting can result in more informed implementation of control measures and prevention policies. To meet the operational decision-making needs of real-world circumstances, we aimed to build a standardized, reliable, and trustworthy ID forecasting pipeline and visualization dashboard that is generalizable across a wide range of modeling techniques, IDs, and global locations. We forecasted 6 diverse, zoonotic diseases (brucellosis, campylobacteriosis, Middle East respiratory syndrome, Q fever, tick-borne encephalitis, and tularemia) across 4 continents and 8 countries. We included a wide range of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models (n=9) and trained them on a multitude of features (average n=2326) within the One Health landscape, including demography, landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. The pipeline and dashboard were created in consideration of crucial operational metrics—prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, spatiotemporal generalizability, uncertainty quantification, and interpretability—which are essential to strategic data-driven decisions. While no single best model was suitable for all disease, region, and country combinations, our ensemble technique selects the best-performing model for each given scenario to achieve the closest prediction. For new or emerging diseases in a region, the ensemble model can predict how the disease may behave in the new region using a pretrained model from a similar region with a history of that disease. The data visualization dashboard provides a clean interface of important analytical metrics, such as ID temporal patterns, forecasts, prediction uncertainties, and model feature importance across all geographic locations and disease combinations. As the need for real-time, operational ID forecasting capabilities increases, this standardized and automated platform for data collection, analysis, and reporting is a major step forward in enabling evidence-based public health decisions and policies for the prevention and mitigation of future ID outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Early On-Orbit Performance of the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Onboard the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) Satellite

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) is one of the key environmental remote-sensing instruments onboard the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership spacecraft, which was successfully launched on October 28, 2011 from the Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. Following a series of spacecraft and sensor activation operations, the VIIRS nadir door was opened on November 21, 2011. The first VIIRS image acquired signifies a new generation of operational moderate resolution-imaging capabilities following the legacy of the advanced very high-resolution radiometer series on NOAA satellites and Terra and Aqua Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer for NASA's Earth Observing system. VIIRS provides significant enhancements to the operational environmental monitoring and numerical weather forecasting, with 22 imaging and radiometric bands covering wavelengths from 0.41 to 12.5 microns, providing the sensor data records for 23 environmental data records including aerosol, cloud properties, fire, albedo, snow and ice, vegetation, sea surface temperature, ocean color, and nigh-time visible-light-related applications. Preliminary results from the on-orbit verification in the postlaunch check-out and intensive calibration and validation have shown that VIIRS is performing well and producing high-quality images. This paper provides an overview of the onorbit performance of VIIRS, the calibration/validation (cal/val) activities and methodologies used. It presents an assessment of the sensor initial on-orbit calibration and performance based on the efforts from the VIIRS-SDR team. Known anomalies, issues, and future calibration efforts, including the long-term monitoring, and intercalibration are also discussed.

viirs↗

DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting Marine Sediment Properties with Geospatial Machine Learning

Using a combination of geospatial machine learning prediction and sediment thermodynamic/physical modeling, we have developed a novel software workflow to create probabilistic maps of geoacoustic and geomechanical sediment properties of the global seabed. This new technique for producing reliable estimates of seafloor properties can better support Naval operations relying on sonar performance and seabed strength, can constrain models of shallow tomographic structure important for nuclear treaty compliance monitoring/detection, and can provide constraints on the distribution and inventory of shallow methane gas and gas hydrate accumulations on the continental shelves.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2022

JPSS-2 VIIRS Pre-Launch Reflective Solar Band Testing and Performance

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instruments on-board the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) and Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) spacecrafts 1 and 2 provides calibrated sensor data record (SDR) reflectance, radiance, and brightness temperatures for use in environment data record (EDR) products. The SDRs and EDRs are used in weather forecasting models, weather imagery and climate applications such as ocean color, sea surface temperature and active fires. The VIIRS has 22 bands covering a spectral range 0.4–12.4 m with resolutions of 375 m and 750 m for imaging and moderate bands respectively on four focal planes. The bands are stratified into three different types based on the source of energy sensed by the bands. The reflective solar bands (RSBs) detect sunlight reflected from the Earth, thermal emissive bands (TEBs) sense emitted energy from the Earth and the day/night band (DNB) detects both solar and lunar reflected energy from the Earth. The SDR calibration uses a combination of pre-launch testing and the solar diffuser (SD), on-board calibrator blackbody (OBCBB) and space view (SV) on-orbit calibrator sources. The pre-launch testing transfers the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) traceable calibration to the SD, for the RSB, and the OBCBB, for the TEB. Post-launch, the on-board calibrators track the changes in instrument response and adjust the SDR product as necessary to maintain the calibration. This paper will discuss the pre-launch radiometric calibration portion of the SDR calibration for the RSBs that includes the dynamic range, detector noise, calibration coefficients and radiometric uncertainties for JPSS-2 VIIRS.

JPSS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Occupant Preference-Aware Load Scheduling for Resilient Communities

The load scheduling of resilient communities in the islanded mode is subject to many uncertainties such as weather forecast errors and occupant behavior stochasticity. To date, it remains unclear how occupant preferences affect the effectiveness of the load scheduling of resilient communities. This paper proposes an occupant thermal preference-aware load scheduler for resilient communities operating in the islanded mode. First, key resilience indicators are selected to quantify its impacts on the load scheduling of a resilient community. A deterministic model predictive control-based load scheduling framework is adopted as the baseline. Then, a chance-constrained controller is proposed to address the occupant-induced uncertainty in room temperature setpoints. Finally, the chance-constrained controller is compared with the deterministic controller on a virtual community testbed based on a real-world net-zero energy community in Florida, U.S. Results have shown that the proposed chance-constrained controller performs better in terms of serving occupants’ thermal preference and the required battery sizes compared to the deterministic controller with the presence of the assumed stochastic occupant behavior. This work indicates that it is necessary to consider the stochasticity of the occupant behavior when designing optimal load schedulers for resilient communities.

Wang, Jing↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Data-Agnostic, Continuous Machine Learning Framework for Application in High Energy Physics and Beyond: Phase 1 Final Scientific/Technical Report

This Phase 1 effort has focused on the development of continual learning frameworks for use in machine learning, specifically in the applied context of High Energy Physics (HEP). Machine learning (ML) is a transformative technology by which computers, typically through the use of neural networks, are able to perform tasks with proficiency that rivals or surpasses that of human users. Model Degradation & Catastrophic Forgetting are two undesired phenomena which can occur in ML where the performance of a model degrades when either deployed on novel data streams, or trained on novel data which are sufficiently different than the data the models were initially trained on. A natural example where these sorts of effects can be observed is in the performance of detectors in harsh environments, where the detector signature may change over the lifetime of the detector as it ages and deteriorates — precisely what occurs in the experiments conducted in HEP. Real world HEP data is therefore an excellent test-ground and use-case for Continual Learning paradigms, which are techniques used in ML to counteract these problems. Ensemble learning is one such technique, where multiple smaller models are trained on subsets of the overall data and are ensembled together during inference. The intuition behind this technique is that, although there are shifts in the distributions which govern the incoming data streams, these shifts are not expected to be homogeneous or global. If a sufficient diversity in solutions within the various sub-models has been achieved, then at least one sub-model is expected to retain its performance within the overall ensemble. One further strength of this approach is that the architectures of the various models do not need to be identical, and in fact even different modalities of data can naturally be combined in this way. This work focused on applying ensemble learning techniques to derive results using two main datasets, anomaly detection in HEP data & time-series forecasting in semiconductor manufacturing data. Semiconductor manufacturing involves data with surprising similarity to that of HEP (e.g. wafer maps look very similar to digi-occupancy maps) and Cerium Lab’s prominence within the semiconductor industry makes semiconductor manufacturing a natural opportunity for commercialization of this work. Our efforts have led to two strong results. The first is that we evaluated the proposed ensembling techniques using previously proposed machine learning architectures for use in anomaly detection, namely AutoEncoder based models and their derivatives. We also developed new architectures which have not been evaluated in this context before. In fact, this work marks the first use of Vision Transformers for anomaly detection in HEP. Second, we demonstrated that ensemble learning significantly improves model performance in scenarios prone to degradation, validating its effectiveness across both HEP and semiconductor datasets. These results further support ensemble learning as a powerful strategy for mitigating catastrophic forgetting and maintaining robust performance in evolving data environments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Explore Spatio‐Temporal Learning of Large Sample Hydrology Using Graph Neural Networks

Abstract Streamflow forecasting over gauged and ungauged basins play a vital role in water resources planning, especially under the changing climate. Increased availability of large sample hydrology data sets, together with recent advances in deep learning techniques, has presented new opportunities to explore temporal and spatial patterns in hydrological signatures for improving streamflow forecasting. The purpose of this study is to adapt and benchmark several state‐of‐the‐art graph neural network (GNN) architectures, including ChebNet, Graph Convolutional Network (GCN), and GraphWaveNet, for end‐to‐end graph learning. We explicitly represent river basins as nodes in a graph, learn the spatiotemporal nodal dependencies, and then use the learned relations to predict streamflow simultaneously across all nodes in the graph. The efficacy of the developed GNN models is investigated using the Catchment Attributes and MEteorology for Large‐sample Studies (CAMELS) data set under two settings, fixed graph topology (transductive learning), and variable graph topology (inductive learning), with the latter applicable to prediction in ungauged basins (PUB). Results indicate that GNNs are generally robust and computationally efficient, achieving similar or better performance than a baseline model trained using the long short‐term memory (LSTM) network. Further analyses are conducted to interpret the graph learning process at the edge and node levels and to investigate the effect of different model configurations. We conclude that graph learning constitutes a viable machine learning‐based method for aggregating spatiotemporal information from a multitude of sources for streamflow forecasting

Sun, Alexander Y.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Performance of reanalysis and mesoscale models off the coast of Hawai'i

The eastern Hawai'i coast in the United States is characterized by considerable wind resource fuelled by persistent trade winds, making it an important area for energy research. The need is strong for reanalyses and higher-resolution regional simulations where observations have been historically limited, such as Hawai'i's offshore environments. However, studies using offshore observations in other parts of the world have shown that significant errors can occur in reanalyses and wind datasets, which can lead to inaccurate estimates of wind energy generation, payback periods, and extreme weather risks at project locations. The degree of such errors is influenced by a number of factors, including spatial resolution and the handling of processes within the planetary boundary layer (PBL). In this work, we provide a wind resource characterization from year-long lidar buoy measurements off the eastern coast of O'ahu, Hawai'i, an environment previously unobserved at the rotor level, and use the characterization to evaluate the performance of two simulation datasets. The O'ahu deployment location is meteorologically unique and less complex than land-based wind resource characterizations, being strongly characterized by trade winds with minimal land–atmosphere interaction influences. Despite the unique and fairly consistent meteorological conditions, we hypothesize that distinct simulation datasets will exhibit diverse ranges of errors similar to those that have been seen for other offshore locations. We find the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) to strongly underestimate observed wind speeds at the O'ahu location (bias = −1.54 m s −1 at a height of 140 m above sea level), while a regional Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulation produced by the University of Hawai'i (UH-WRF) provides a significantly smaller wind speed bias (−0.25 m s −1 ), highlighting the value of running regional, higher-resolution simulations. The large bias noted for ERA5 is driven by significant underestimation of fast wind speeds (>9 m s −1 ), which the study site is largely characterized by, along with discontinuities in the ERA5 diurnal cycle. We also speculate that the relative sparsity of observations for data assimilation in this remote part of the world could influence the performance of ERA5 and that challenges with characterizing island effects could impact the performance of both datasets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2021

Assateague Island National Seashore Ecological Forecasting: Characterizing Nearshore Suspended Sediments and Landcover Change Relative to Sediment Bypassing and Catastrophic Events

Assateague Island is located off the coast of Maryland and Virginia and serves as a home to sensitive species and habitats. However, infrastructure development disrupted the natural sediment transport processes of the barrier island, which accelerated erosion of the island’s shoreline. To counteract this, the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) initiated semiannual sediment bypassing operations in 2004. Over time, financial constraints limited the amount of sediment deposition possible, leading to concerns over navigational issues in nearby channels and the possibility of the operations not providing their intended benefits. To address these issues, NASA DEVELOP partnered with the National Park Service NPS and USACE. The team performed time series analyses of nearshore suspended sediment from 2004-2020 and landcover change from 2006-2018 with satellite imagery from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI). The sediment transport analyses showed that suspended sediment levels are seasonally dependent. Meanwhile, historical land cover trends included a net increase in unconsolidated shore and a net decrease in open water. Land cover change was then forecast to 2021, 2031, and 2046 using the IDRISI TerrSet Land Change Modeler. The model predicted the most drastic land cover changes in the southern portion and the least on the eastern foreshore of the island. As a result, this project allows our partners to understand the impact of sediment bypassing operations more fully and make better-informed decisions regarding the island’s management.

M Colin Marvin↗

DOE OSTI2020

Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning

Building thermal load prediction informs the optimization of cooling plant and thermal energy storage. Physics-based prediction models of building thermal load are constrained by the model and input complexity. In this study, we developed 12 data-driven models (7 shallow learning, 2 deep learning, and 3 heuristic methods) to predict building thermal load and compared shallow machine learning and deep learning. The 12 prediction models were compared with the measured cooling demand. It was found XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boost) and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) provided the most accurate load prediction in the shallow and deep learning category, and both outperformed the best baseline model, which uses the previous day's data for prediction. Then, we discussed how the prediction horizon and input uncertainty would influence the load prediction accuracy. Major conclusions are twofold: first, LSTM performs well in short-term prediction (1 h ahead) but not in long term prediction (24 h ahead), because the sequential information becomes less relevant and accordingly not so useful when the prediction horizon is long. Second, the presence of weather forecast uncertainty deteriorates XGBoost's accuracy and favors LSTM, because the sequential information makes the model more robust to input uncertainty. Training the model with the uncertain rather than accurate weather data could enhance the model's robustness. Finally, our findings have two implications for practice. First, LSTM is recommended for short-term load prediction given that weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable. Second, XGBoost is recommended for long term prediction, and the model should be trained with the presence of input uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗