Results for “parameter space exploration” — Page 62

NASA NTRS2012

NASA's Gravitational - Wave Mission Concept Study

With the conclusion of the NASA/ESA partnership on the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) Project, NASA initiated a study to explore mission concepts that will accomplish some or all of the LISA science objectives at lower cost. The Gravitational-Wave Mission Concept Study consisted of a public Request for Information (RFI), a Core Team of NASA engineers and scientists, a Community Science Team, a Science Task Force, and an open workshop. The RFI yielded were 12 mission concepts, 3 instrument concepts and 2 technologies. The responses ranged from concepts that eliminated the drag-free test mass of LISA to concepts that replace the test mass with an atom interferometer. The Core Team reviewed the noise budgets and sensitivity curves, the payload and spacecraft designs and requirements, orbits and trajectories and technical readiness and risk. The Science Task Force assessed the science performance by calculating the horizons. the detection rates and the accuracy of astrophysical parameter estimation for massive black hole mergers, stellar-mass compact objects inspiraling into central engines. and close compact binary systems. Three mission concepts have been studied by Team-X, JPL's concurrent design facility. to define a conceptual design evaluate kt,y performance parameters. assess risk and estimate cost and schedule. The Study results are summarized.

Stebbins, Robin↗

NASA NTRS2017

Computational Modeling of Space Physiology for Informing Spaceflight Countermeasure Design and Predictions of Efficacy

MOTIVATION: Spaceflight countermeasures mitigate the harmful effects of the space environment on astronaut health and performance. Exercise has historically been used as a countermeasure to physical deconditioning, and additional countermeasures including lower body negative pressure, blood flow occlusion and artificial gravity are being researched as countermeasures to spaceflight-induced fluid shifts. The NASA Digital Astronaut Project uses computational models of physiological systems to inform countermeasure design and to predict countermeasure efficacy.OVERVIEW: Computational modeling supports the development of the exercise devices that will be flown on NASAs new exploration crew vehicles. Biomechanical modeling is used to inform design requirements to ensure that exercises can be properly performed within the volume allocated for exercise and to determine whether the limited mass, volume and power requirements of the devices will affect biomechanical outcomes. Models of muscle atrophy and bone remodeling can predict device efficacy for protecting musculoskeletal health during long-duration missions. A lumped-parameter whole-body model of the fluids within the body, which includes the blood within the cardiovascular system, the cerebral spinal fluid, interstitial fluid and lymphatic system fluid, estimates compartmental changes in pressure and volume due to gravitational changes. These models simulate fluid shift countermeasure effects and predict the associated changes in tissue strain in areas of physiological interest to aid in predicting countermeasure effectiveness. SIGNIFICANCE: Development and testing of spaceflight countermeasure prototypes are resource-intensive efforts. Computational modeling can supplement this process by performing simulations that reduce the amount of necessary experimental testing. Outcomes of the simulations are often important for the definition of design requirements and the identification of factors essential in ensuring countermeasure efficacy.

biomedical data↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Historical Review of Logistics Mass and Crew Time Demands for ISS Operations

Following over 20 years of continuously crewed operations on the International Space Station (ISS), NASA is planning to return to the Moon and eventually send humans to Mars. ISS operations provide vital data to inform mission analysts as NASA prepares for longer and more complex missions with increased mission endurance. Endurance, defined as crewed operating time between cargo deliveries (or crew launch and return to Earth), is an important metric when analyzing mission needs. NASA is developing architectures to support sustained deep-space habitats in cislunar space, the lunar surface, Mars transit, and the surface of Mars. Unlike the ISS, these systems will not be continuously crewed, and unlike the Space Shuttle, these systems will not return to Earth for regular refurbishment between missions. Lunar systems will routinely go through long uncrewed periods between crewed missions. The systems on board will need to survive these dormancy periods with no crew present to provide maintenance. Mars systems will experience significantly longer endurance than past experience. Additionally, the inability to have quick aborts to return to Earth increases the need for system reliability, redundancy, and maintainability, as well as plans for contingency operations. This paper examines the historical logistics and crew time demand for ISS operations and mission objectives and provides an overview of missions to the ISS over its operating history, the mass and items delivered with the missions, and the crew time spent during missions. These parameters provide insight and valuable data to inform logistics and crew time estimates for future long-endurance crewed exploration missions.

Crew Logistics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Historical Review of Logistics Mass and Crew Time Demands for ISS Operations

Following over 20 years of continuously crewed operations on the International Space Station (ISS), NASA is planning to return to the Moon and eventually send humans to Mars. ISS operations provide vital data to inform mission analysts as NASA prepares for longer and more complex missions with increased mission endurance. Endurance, defined as crewed operating time between cargo deliveries (or crew launch and return to Earth), is an important metric when analyzing mission needs. NASA is developing architectures to support sustained deep-space habitats in cislunar space, the lunar surface, Mars transit, and the surface of Mars. Unlike the ISS, these systems will not be continuously crewed, and unlike the Space Shuttle, these systems will not return to Earth for regular refurbishment between missions. Lunar systems will routinely go through long uncrewed periods between crewed missions. The systems on board will need to survive these dormancy periods with no crew present to provide maintenance. Mars systems will experience significantly longer endurance than past experience. Additionally, the inability to have quick aborts to return to Earth increases the need for system reliability, redundancy, and maintainability, as well as plans for contingency operations. This paper examines the historical logistics and crew time demand for ISS operations and mission objectives and provides an overview of missions to the ISS over its operating history, the mass and items delivered with the missions, and the crew time spent during missions. These parameters provide insight and valuable data to inform logistics and crew time estimates for future long-endurance crewed exploration missions.

Crew Logistics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Catalight─An Open-Source Automated Photocatalytic Reactor Package Illustrated through Plasmonic Acetylene Hydrogenation

An open-source and modular Python package, Catalight, is developed and demonstrated to automate (photo)catalysis measurements. (Photo)catalysis experiments require studying several parameters to evaluate performance, including the temperature, gas flow rate and composition, illumination power, and spectral profile. Catalight orchestrates measurements over this complicated parameter space and systematically stores, analyzes, and visualizes the results. To showcase the capabilities of Catalight, we perform an automated apparent activation barrier measurement of acetylene hydrogenation over a plasmonic AuPd catalyst on an Al 2 O 3 support, simultaneously varying laser power, wavelength, and temperature in a multiday experiment controlled by a simple Python script. Our chemical results unexpectedly show an increased activation barrier upon light excitation, contrary to previous findings for other plasmonic reactions and catalysts. We show that the reaction rate order with respect to both acetylene and hydrogen remains unchanged upon illumination, suggesting that molecular surface coverage is not changed by light. By analyzing the inhomogeneity of the laser-induced heating, we attribute these results to a partial photothermal effect combined with a photochemical/hot electron-driven mechanism. In conclusion, our findings highlight the capabilities of a new experiment automation tool; explore the photocatalytic mechanism for an industrially relevant reaction; and identify systematic sources of error in canonical photocatalysis experimental procedures.

Catalysts↗

DOE OSTI2024

Neutrino constraints on inelastic dark matter captured in the Sun

Abstract The flux of neutrinos from annihilation of gravitationally captured dark matter in the Sun has significant constraints from direct-detection experiments. However, these constraints are relaxed for inelastic dark matter as inelastic dark matter interactions generate less energetic nuclear recoils compared to elastic dark matter interactions. In this paper, we explore the possibility for large volume underground neutrino experiments to detect the neutrino flux from captured inelastic dark matter in the Sun. The neutrino spectrum has two components: a mono-energetic “spike” from pion and kaon decays at rest and a broad-spectrum “shoulder” from prompt primary meson decays. We focus on detecting the shoulder neutrinos from annihilation of hadrophilic inelastic dark matter with masses in the range 4–100 GeV and the mass splittings in up to 300 keV. We determine the event selection criterion for DUNE to identify GeV-scale muon neutrinos and anti-neutrinos originating from hadrophilic dark matter annihilation in the Sun, and forecast the sensitivity from contained events. We also map the current bounds from Super-Kamiokande and IceCube on elastic dark matter, as well as the projected limits from Hyper-Kamiokande, to the parameter space of inelastic dark matter. We find that there is a region of parameter space that these neutrino experiments are more sensitive to than the direct-detection experiments. For dark matter annihilation to heavy-quarks, the projected sensitivity of DUNE is weaker than current (future) Super (Hyper) Kamiokande experiments. However, for the light-quark channel, only the spike is observable and DUNE will be the most sensitive experiment.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Wave Energy Converter Control Using Instantaneous Frequency

Wave Energy Converters (WECs) rely on effective Power Take-Off (PTO) control strategies to maximize energy absorption under dynamic sea conditions. Traditional hydrodynamic modeling techniques may require computationally intensive convolution calculations, making real-time control implementation challenging. This paper presents an alternative approach by leveraging instantaneous frequency estimation to dynamically adjust PTO damping in response to varying wave frequencies. Two real-time frequency estimation methods are explored: the Hilbert Transform (HT) and Phase-Locked Loop (PLL). The Hilbert Transform method provides accurate frequency tracking but introduces a delayed response due to its dependence on causal data. Conversely, the PLL approach demonstrates strong potential in frequency tracking but requires careful gain tuning, particularly in complex sea states. Comparative evaluations across multiple test cases—including sinusoidal variations, amplitude steps, frequency step changes, and real-world JONSWAP spectrum waves—highlight the strengths and limitations of each method. The two different PTO control techniques across the various frequency estimation methods were tested under real-sea states using a state-space model of a point-absorbing Wave Energy Converter. The Capture Width Ratio (CWR) is used as a performance metric, with results showing that the HT achieves a 10.6% improvement, while the PLL estimation yields a 0.9% improvement relative to the fixed parameter control baseline. These results highlight the effectiveness of real-time frequency estimation in improving energy absorption compared to static control parameters.

WEC control↗

NASA NTRS2020

Preparing the JWST Observatory for Science Observations

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is a large (6.5 m) near-and mid-infrared telescope scheduled for launch in 2021. JWST will be used to explore fundamental questions in astrophysics and planetary science, including the evolution of galaxies, the first light of stars, the formation of stars and planets as well as the characterization of exoplanets. To achieve these scientific goals, NASA and its international partners, the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) and the European Space Agency (ESA), have developed four science instruments for JWST and have prepared detailed commissioning plans for each. The NASA Project Science team has also outlined activities to characterize the performance of the Observatory as a whole. These activities include: 1) monitoring of the instrument and telescope cooldown for contamination mitigation; 2) measurements of straylight and other backgrounds for validation of the JWST stray light models as well as instrument background subtraction algorithms; 3) characterization of optical thermal distortion between its hot and cold telescope pointings within the observable field of regard and 4) trending of observatory performance parameters. Each of these activities has been planned in close collaboration with the observatory wavefront, commissioning planning, and science instrument teams. Here we present the plans for these activities, the expected results and how they will impact future guest observer (GO) proposals and JWST science community

Erin C Smith↗

NASA NTRS1999

Examining Mars with SPICE

The International Mars Conference highlights the wealth of scientific data now and soon to be acquired from an international armada of Mars-bound robotic spacecraft. Underlying the planning and interpretation of these scientific observations around and upon Mars are ancillary data and associated software needed to deal with trajectories or locations, instrument pointing, timing and Mars cartographic models. The NASA planetary community has adopted the SPICE system of ancillary data standards and allied tools to fill the need for consistent, reliable access to these basic data and a near limitless range of derived parameters. After substantial rapid growth in its formative years, the SPICE system continues to evolve today to meet new needs and improve ease of use. Adaptations to handle landers and rovers were prototyped on the Mars pathfinder mission and will next be used on Mars '01-'05. Incorporation of new methods to readily handle non-inertial reference frames has vastly extended the capability and simplified many computations. A translation of the SPICE Toolkit software suite to the C language has just been announced. To further support cartographic calculations associated with Mars exploration the SPICE developers at JPL have recently been asked by NASA to work with cartographers to develop standards and allied software for storing and accessing control net and shape model data sets; these will be highly integrated with existing SPICE components. NASA specifically supports the widest possible utilization of SPICE capabilities throughout the international space science community. With NASA backing the Russian Space Agency and Russian Academy of Science adopted the SPICE standards for the Mars 96 mission. The SPICE ephemeris component will shortly become the international standard for agencies using the Deep Space Network. U.S. and European scientists hope that ESA will employ SPICE standards on the Mars Express mission. SPICE is an open set of standards, and all related specifications and software are freely distributed around the world. This poster describes the current state of SPICE system development, with special emphasis on current and planned support for Mars exploration missions.

Acton, Charles H.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Expanding the Description of Spaceflight Effects beyond Bone Mineral Density [BMD]: Trabecular Bone Score [TBS] in ISS Astronauts

Dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry [DXA] is the widely-applied bone densitometry method used to diagnose osteoporosis in a terrestrial population known to be at risk for age-related bone loss. This medical test, which measures areal bone mineral density [aBMD] of clinically-relevant skeletal sites (e.g., hip and spine), helps the clinician to identify which persons, among postmenopausal women and men older than 50 years, are at high risk for low trauma or fragility fractures and might require an intervention. The most recognized osteoporotic fragility fracture is the vertebral compression fracture which can lead to kyphosis or hunched backs typically seen in the elderly. DXA measurement of BMD however is recognized to be insufficient as a sole index for assessing fracture risk. DXA's limitation may be related to its inability to monitor changes in structural parameters, such as trabecular vs. cortical bone volumes, bone geometry or trabecular microarchitecture. Hence, in order to understand risks to human health and performance due to space exposure, NASA needs to expand its measurements of bone to include other contributors to skeletal integrity. To this aim, the Bone and Mineral Lab conducted a pilot study for a novel measurement of bone microarchitecture that can be obtained by retrospective analysis of DXA scans. Trabecular Bone Score (TBS) assesses changes to trabecular microarchitecture by measuring the grey color "texture" information extracted from DXA images of the lumbar spine. An analysis of TBS in 51 ISS astronauts was conducted to assess if TBS could detect 1) an effect of spaceflight and 2) a response to countermeasures independent of DXA BMD. In addition, changes in trunk body lean tissue mass and in trunk body fat tissue mass were also evaluated to explore an association between body composition, as impacted by ARED exercise, and bone microarchitecture. The pilot analysis of 51 astronaut scans of the lumbar spine suggests that, following an ISS mission, DXA BMD and TBS are detecting different effects of ARED exercise and of ARED + Bisphosphonate on the lumbar spine of astronauts. There is emerging evidence associating reduced TBS with terrestrial metabolic bone disorders where a TBS <1.200 is associated with "degraded" while > 1.350 is associated with "normal." However, it is not possible to conclude how the spaceflight-induced changes in TBS increase risk for vertebral fractures in the astronaut or if changes in body composition of the trunk region could be an indirect method of assessing exercise effect on bone microarchitecture. More importantly, this pilot analysis demonstrates a new, minimal risk approach for monitoring changes to vertebral bone microarchitecture. This method could help assess the combined skeletal effects of spaceflight with the effects of aging in the astronaut after return to Earth.

Sibonga, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS2022

VIPRE: A Tool Aiding the Design for Entry Probe Missions

Exploring planetary atmospheres uncovers important information for how our solar system formed and evolved. While remote sensing is extensively used, some crucial observations require in-situ measurements by an atmospheric probe. Given their scientific importance, probe missions to Saturn, Uranus and Neptune are considered for the coming decades. In anticipation of future probe missions, the software tool VIPRE was developed as proof-of-concept to facilitate selection of probe entry locations. Currently, there is no analytical way to identify which interplanetary trajectory from thousands of feasible launch opportunities is optimal for a considered mission concept. The search and decision process for that solution is complex and relies on the intuition of mission designers, who focus on a subset of trajectories to make the trade space manageable. The idea of VIPRE is to (1) generate a multi-dimensional data cube showing relevant engineering and science parameters simultaneously for thousands of trajectories, and (2) visualize the data for all entry sites over the body's envelope. VIPRE lays the foundation to make the data available for browsing in a 3-D visualization to identify the best family of solutions for a given mission. The paper introduces the validated and verified core algorithms of VIPRE, published on GitHub. VIPRE serves as a basic framework to be used and extended for different purposes. The paper presents the motivation for the development and algorithms. It explains the computation and data visualization strategy, and gives a list of suggested functionalities to extend and further develop VIPRE to fully leverage its potential.

Ice Giants↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aviary: An Open-Source Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization Tool for Modeling Aircraft with Analytic Gradients

In recent years demands on aircraft design methods have begun to require higher degrees of coupling between disciplines and optimization in order to satisfy competing objectives involving large numbers of design parameters that define unconventional configurations. These expanding requirements have amplified a need for new and improved aircraft design, analysis, and optimization codes that are capable of performing coupled design and exploiting analytic gradients to perform gradient-based optimization where possible. To address this need, a new multidisciplinary design optimization and analysis tool called Aviary is presented. This tool, built on OpenMDAO, allows for tightly coupled, simultaneous aircraft and subsystem design using analytic gradients. Aviary includes methods from two NASA developed legacy aircraft analysis tools and provides native analytically differentiated calculations for five different disciplines (weights and sizing, aerodynamics, geometry, propulsion, and mission analysis), while also allowing external discipline analysis tools to be coupled, regardless of whether those tools can provide analytic gradients. Verification and preliminary examples and modeling efforts show Aviary’s ability to effectively model novel concepts and explore large and non-intuitive design spaces. Additionally, a multi-level user interface in Aviary creates an easy entry point for users with any level of multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization experience.

optimization↗

DOE OSTI2024

BOSS quasar outflows traced by C iv

ABSTRACT We investigate possible factors that drive fast quasar outflows using a sample of 39 249 quasars at median redshift 〈z〉 ≈ 2.17. Unique to this study, the quasar redshifts are re-measured based on the Mg ii emission line, and explore unprecedented outflow velocities (>6000 km s−1), while maintaining statistical significance. We measure reliable C iv blueshifts for 1178 quasars with velocities >2500 km s−1. From those, 255(13) quasars have blueshifts above 4000(6000) km s−1, with the highest C iv velocity ≈7000 km s−1. Several correlations are observed, where higher C iv blueshifts in general are in quasars with broader, weaker C iv emission profiles, weak He ii emission, larger Eddington ratios, and bluer ultraviolet (UV) continuum slope across the rest-frame UV to near-infrared. Analysis reveals two primary factors contributing to faster outflows: higher Eddington ratios, and softer far-UV continuum (hν >24.6 eV). We find supporting evidence that radiative line driving may generate extreme outflow velocities, influenced by multiple factors as suggested by the aforementioned correlations. This evidence highlights the importance of considering a multidimensional parameter space in future studies when analyzing large C iv blueshifts to determine the fundamental causes of outflows.

Gillette, Jarred (ORCID:0000000185284839)↗

NASA NTRS2007

Risk Assessment of Physiological Effects of Atmospheric Composition and Pressure in Constellation Vehicles

To reduce denitrogenation time to prevent decompression sickness to support frequent extravehicular activities on the Moon, and to limit the risk of fire, a hypobaric (P(sub B) = 414 mmHg) and mildly hypoxic (ppO2 = 132 mmHg, 32% O2 - 68% N2) living environment is being considered during lunar missions for the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) and Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM). If the vehicular ppO2 is acutely changed from 145-178 mmHg at standard vehicular operating pressure to less than 125 mmHg at desired lunar surface outpost operating pressures, there is the possibility that some crewmembers may develop symptoms of Acute Mountain Sickness (AMS). The signs and symptoms of AMS (headache plus nausea, dizziness, fatigue, or sleeplessness), could impact crew health and performance on lunar surface missions. Methods: An exhaustive literature review on the topic of the physiological effects of reduced ppO2 and absolute pressure as may contribute to the development of hypoxia and altitude symptoms or AMS. The results of the nine most rigorous studies were collated, analyzed and contents on the physiological concerns associated with hypobaric operations, AMS and hypoxia symptoms summarized. Results: Although space vehicles have operated in hypobaric conditions previously, they have not operated in a mildly hypoxic ppO2. There is evidence for an absolute pressure effect per se on AMS, such that the higher the altitude for a given hypoxic alveolar O2 partial pressure (P(sub A)O2), the greater the likelihood of an AMS response. About 25% of adults are likely to experience mild AMS near 2,000 m (xxx mmHg) altitude following a rapid ascent from sea level while breathing air (6,500 feet, acute (P(sub A)O2) = 75 mmHg). The operational experience with the Shuttle staged denitrogenation protocol at 528 mmHg (3,048 m) while breathing 26.5% O2 (acute (P(sub A)O2) = 85 mmHg) in astronauts adapting to microgravity suggests a similar likely experience in the proposed CEV environment. Conclusions: We feel that the slightly elevated risk of AMS with the recommended exploration atmospheric parameters is offset by the DCS risk reduction and improved operational efficiency offered by the hypobaric lunar surface vehicular pressure. We believe the risk of mild AMS is greater given a (P(sub A)O2) of 77 mmHg at 4,876 m altitude while breathing 32% O2 than at 1,828 m altitude while breathing 21% O2. Only susceptible astronauts would develop mild and transient AMS with prolonged exposure to 414 mmHg (4,876 m) while breathing 32% O2 (acute (P(sub A)O2) = 77 mmHg). So the following may be employed for operational risk reduction: 1) develop procedures to increase P(sub B) as needed in the CEV, and use a gradual or staged reduction in cabin pressure during lunar outbound; 2) train crews for symptoms of hypoxia, to allow early recognition and consider pre-adaptation of crews to a hypoxic environment prior to launch, 3) consider prophylactic acetazolamide for acute pressure changes and be prepared to treat any AMS associated symptoms early with both carbonic anhydrase inhibitors and supplemental oxygen.

Scheuring, Richard A.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ensemble Methodologies for Astronaut Cancer Risk Assessment in the face of Large Uncertainties

A new approach to NASA space radiation risk modeling has successfully extended the current NASA probabilistic cancer risk model to an ensemble framework able to consider sub-model parameter uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in a radiation quality parameter) as well as model-form uncertainty associated with differing theoretical or empirical formalisms (e.g. combined dose-rate and radiation quality effects). Ensemble methodologies are already widely used in weather prediction, modeling of infectious disease outbreaks, and certain terrestrial radiation protection applications to better understand how uncertainty may influence risk decision-making. Applying ensemble methodologies to space radiation risk projections offers the potential to efficiently incorporate emerging research results, allow for the incorporation of future (including international) models, improve uncertainty quantification for underlying sub-models developed against sparse experimental data, and reduce the impact of subjective bias on risk projections. Moreover, risk forecasting across an ensemble of multiple predictive models can provide stakeholders additional information on risk acceptance if current health/medical standards cannot be met or the level of knowledge doesn’t permit a specific risk or exposure limit to be developed for future space exploration missions. In this work, ensemble risk projections implementing multiple sub-models of radiation quality, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factors, excess risk, and latency as ensemble members are presented. Initial consensus methods for ensemble model weights and correlations to account for individual model bias are discussed. In these analyses, the ensemble forecast compares well to results from NASA's current operational cancer risk projection model used to assess permissible exposure limits and permissible mission durations for astronauts. However, a large range of projected risk values are obtained at the upper 95th confidence level where models must extrapolate beyond available biological data sets; closer agreement is seen at the median + one sigma due to the inherent similarities in available models. Future work, including the addition of new models and methods for statistical correlation between predictive members are discussed to define alternate ways of thinking about risk and ‘acceptable’ uncertainty with respect to NASA’s current permissible exposure limits.

space radiation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ensemble Cancer Risk Model for Astronaut Risk Assessment

A new approach to NASA space radiation risk modeling has successfully extended the current NASA probabilistic cancer risk model to an ensemble framework able to consider sub-model parameter uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in a radiation quality parameter) as well as model-form uncertainty associated with differing theoretical or empirical formalisms (e.g. combined dose-rate and radiation quality effects). Ensemble methodologies are already widely used in weather prediction, modeling of infectious disease outbreaks, and certain terrestrial radiation protection applications to better understand how uncertainty may influence risk decision-making. Applying ensemble methodologies to space radiation risk projections offers the potential to efficiently incorporate emerging research results, allow for the incorporation of future (including international) models, improve uncertainty quantification for underlying sub-models developed against sparse experimental data, and reduce the impact of subjective bias on risk projections. Moreover, risk forecasting across an ensemble of multiple predictive models can provide stakeholders additional information on risk acceptance if current health/medical standards cannot be met or the level of knowledge doesn’t permit a specific risk or exposure limit to be developed for future space exploration missions. In this work, ensemble risk projections implementing multiple sub-models of radiation quality, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factors, excess risk, and latency as ensemble members are presented. Initial consensus methods for ensemble model weights and correlations to account for individual model bias are discussed. In these analyses, the ensemble forecast compares well to results from NASA's current operational cancer risk projection model used to assess permissible exposure limits and permissible mission durations for astronauts. However, a large range of projected risk values are obtained at the upper 95th confidence level where models must extrapolate beyond available biological data sets; closer agreement is seen at the median + one sigma due to the inherent similarities in available models. Future work, including the addition of new models and methods for statistical correlation between predictive members are discussed to define alternate ways of thinking about risk and ‘acceptable’ uncertainty with respect to NASA’s current permissible exposure limits.

Lisa C Simonsen↗

DOE OSTI2023

Towards a Circular Economy for PET Bottles in the US

The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country. Along with that GHG emissions from the global plastic economy are expected to increase to 15% of the global carbon budget by 2050. It is imperative that plastic recycling is made a reality to reduce both plastic pollution in the environment and GHG emissions. A portfolio of end-of-life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different utility and lifetime. Plastic use reduction, reuse and recycling are thus increasingly important, but making informed policy and research decisions within this space can be challenging given the diverse range of available solutions. The novel analysis framework, Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) has been equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, techno-economic analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) down-cycling to lower-quality resin, closed-loop recycling to food-grade PET bottles, up-cycling to fiber-reinforced plastic (FRP), and conversion to non-plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy-wide basis. Integrating system dynamics into this robust plastics model that already incorporates techno-economics, circularity, and environmental impacts will enable identification of key bottlenecks between manufacturers, waste sorters, and reclaimers that currently prevent rapid decarbonization of the plastics economy. System dynamics (SD) explore the evolution of activities and technologies based on changed macro parameters such as plastic demand and supply, market shifts, and cross-sectoral interactions. This project particularly aims to explore the interplay between, waste collection, plastic waste sorting, recycling, and manufacturing, as well as the effect of plastic bale quality and plastic reuse initiatives on the surrounding process stages. This functionality will facilitate combinatory analysis in which a portfolio of end-of-life pathways are assessed simultaneously, with the exact makeup of that portfolio affected by parameters such as technology scales, resource constraints, and waste mitigation efforts. Integrating SD with the 4P framework enables analyzing the effect of increased revenue and reinvestment into improving process efficiencies, sorting and collection quantities. Through that, market effects of increased recycled resin availability can be studied for the plastics systems model for the US. The results will help identify technical or economic bottlenecks that currently limit efforts to decarbonize the U.S. plastics economy.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards a Circular Economy for PET Bottles in the U.S. - 4P Model

The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country. Along with that GHG emissions from the global plastic economy are expected to increase to 15% of the global carbon budget by 2050. It is imperative that plastic recycling is made a reality to reduce both plastic pollution in the environment and GHG emissions. A portfolio of end-of-life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different utility and lifetime. Plastic use reduction, reuse and recycling are thus increasingly important, but making informed policy and research decisions within this space can be challenging given the diverse range of available solutions. The novel analysis framework, Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) has been equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, techno-economic analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) down-cycling to lower-quality resin, closed-loop recycling to food-grade PET bottles, up-cycling to fiber-reinforced plastic (FRP), and conversion to non-plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy-wide basis. Integrating system dynamics into this robust plastics model that already incorporates techno-economics, circularity, and environmental impacts will enable identification of key bottlenecks between manufacturers, waste sorters, and reclaimers that currently prevent rapid decarbonization of the plastics economy. System dynamics (SD) explore the evolution of activities and technologies based on changed macro parameters such as plastic demand and supply, market shifts, and cross-sectoral interactions. This project particularly aims to explore the interplay between, waste collection, plastic waste sorting, recycling, and manufacturing, as well as the effect of plastic bale quality and plastic reuse initiatives on the surrounding process stages. This functionality will facilitate combinatory analysis in which a portfolio of end-of-life pathways are assessed simultaneously, with the exact makeup of that portfolio affected by parameters such as technology scales, resource constraints, and waste mitigation efforts. Integrating SD with the 4P framework enables analyzing the effect of increased revenue and reinvestment into improving process efficiencies, sorting and collection quantities. Through that, market effects of increased recycled resin availability can be studied for the plastics systems model for the US. The results will help identify technical or economic bottlenecks that currently limit efforts to decarbonize the U.S. plastics economy.

carbon↗